Covid-19 #25: The Prisoner’s Dilemma

[Zorral]

2 hours ago, DireWolfSpirit said:

I'm concerned that the infection rate numbers aren't as great as they appear. They appear to be dropping fantastically. I just have this foreboding fear it's another dip before yet another wave of pain.

Hopefully I'm very wrong and were inching towards the light at the end of a tunnel of terror.

As the states and cities are re-opening everything from indoor dining to weddings to sport stadiums starting this weekend -- Disneyland in CA too -- never fear, we shall SURGE!  There shall be no end to our SURGING!  Why do we do this over and over and over and over, the moment numbers drop just a bit

[Padraig]

1 hour ago, Clueless Northman said:

I'm surprised the European union hasn't made a temper tantrum about that, because it's actually more clear-cut than their spat with Astra-Zeneca.

It did generate controversy.  I know Sweden refused to pay for its complement of the vaccine because of the issue.  I'm sure there was other discussions going on behind the scenes.  But Pfizer had a big card to play.  It announced in January that it would increase production from 1.3bn to 2bn for 2021.  300k of that was from the "extra dose" but 400k was due to increased production.  While there was an initial delay due to that production change in late January/early February, it will still hits its Q1 delivery targets and will significantly surpass them in Q2.   That news is an easy way to soften the EU's reaction.

2 hours ago, DireWolfSpirit said:

They appear to be dropping fantastically. I just have this foreboding fear it's another dip before yet another wave of pain.

I certainly would worry that people will start relaxing and taking more risks.  Numbers have gone up before and could easily do so again.  But there normally is a fairly obvious reason.  Christmas, start of winter, reduced restrictions etc.

6 hours ago, Heartofice said:

On the WHO, it has also just recommended the AZ Oxford vaccine for the over 65s, and seems to agree with the British position in regards to gaps between doses.

In Ireland, the advisory body said that "over 70s should be vaccinated as soon as possible, preferably with Moderna/Pfizer".  But it didn't rule out AZ.  Reading between the lines, AZ is in all likelihood fine, but we don't have a great supply of AZ, so may as well use the other 2 options.  They have higher efficacy also.  The WHO doesn't have those options.  It is AZ or nothing (for now).  I'm not saying that the WHO is wrong.  Ireland would have done the same if there was only 1 options.

I did look up what the WHO was saying.  See here.

Quote

In making its determination, the team said that such leaks are extremely rare and there’s no evidence the virus existed in that lab or any lab anywhere in the world when the pandemic began. It also reviewed safety protocols at the institute, leading the team to conclude “it was very unlikely that anything could escape from such a place,” WHO team leader Peter Ben Embarek said.

Besides Trump, I think most people didn't take the lab theory very seriously.  I wouldn't be surprised if all these labs talk to each other.  So if a lab in China was looking at these sort of viruses, labs in other countries would be aware of it.

[The Anti-Targ]

1 hour ago, Heartofice said:

I would be very surprised if the lab would have offered up evidence incriminating them. I'm not sure I would be ruling it out just because you couldn't find anything from the lab, or asking the scientists 'did you do it?'

Obviously, not many guilty people own up to their guilt. But the thing is, you can only incriminate as an investigating body if you have solid evidence. Either positive evidence that they did it, or circumstantial evidence that it was practically impossible for it to come from any other source. It will be extremely difficult to rule out any other source to a practical impossibility, and it seems clear they have no evidence of a lab being the source. 

We actually had a kind of comparable scenario with trying to track down the source of a, previously, exotic cattle disease that was found in a cattle herd in a few years ago. One potential route of entry into the country was regarded as highly unlikely, but all the other potential routes of entry were regarded as impossible or extremely unlikely. So the conclusion was that the highly unlikely route had to be it. If people want to finger the labs now, then that's kind of what needs to happen. Based on current evidence, the labs are highly unlikely to be the source, so all other sources have to be extremely unlikely or impossible.

People can of course believe what they like. Some people still believe a certain person still won a certain election. But it becomes dangerous to operate at a community, political or diplomatic level on the basis of beliefs. Beliefs, per se, aren't the problem. Really, it's an unwillingness to change beliefs in the face of overwhelming evidence to the contrary that's the problem. I believe it probably wasn't a lab source, but I won't be totally shocked if I have to change my mind because the evidence ends up pointing to a lab.

[Impmk2]

9 hours ago, Heartofice said:

Would be good to know why it simply cannot have come from there, and that it's just a huge coincidence that there were 3 labs nearby studying corona viruses. 

It isn't a huge coincidence there's labs studying corona viruses in an area with massive endemic corona viruses in the wildlife population which have previously crossed into humans and caused problems. Much like it isn't a coincidence that the lab I work in which mainly focuses on clinically relevant antimicrobial resistant bacteria is just down the road from a hospital.

It's a balance of probabilities thing. The chance that someone was infected by random wildlife is simply far far higher than escape of a completely novel virus from a tightly controlled lab. Especially when that wildlife is thought to be somewhat commonly poached / illegally traded in conditions with poor hygiene practices. As we've seen throughout the pandemic this particular virus moves pretty easily between humans and animal hosts including pets, farmed animals, and zoo animals.

That the BSL4 lab in question was extremely transparent with the scientific data they were getting in the immediate aftermath is a pretty good indicator that at least the CCP doesn't think it came from there. If they thought so that particular lab would've been locked down tight and the heads of the people in charge of it would've been rolling.

[Clueless Northman]

I've always assumed that the "lab theory" also implied that Beijing was fully aware of it and covered it up. As said above, if it came from a lab, I don't think it would come from a civilian lab like those in Wuhan, which did close work with Western civilian labs - and there would've been suspicions and leaks in this case. So I would also assume that the lab theory can only really work if the virus escaped from some military research, on purpose or by accident. For these reasons, I tend to assume it's a natural case - but of course can't entirely rule out human intervention / man-made virus.

[The Anti-Targ]

I've mostly put the lab theory down to people with an hardline anti-China agenda, who want it to be true regardless of any evidence. But the thing about it is that it could be true, even now. So while I think it improbable it can't simply be dismissed out of hand as a whacky idea from people with an extreme political agenda, like, say, voting fraud in a recent election can be dismissed out of hand. So it will linger as an improbable possibility for a long time, until the actual origin is identified. After that it will be relegated to crazy conspiracy town where it will linger until the heat death of the universe. If no origin is identified, which I think is possible, the lab possibility will linger with greater prominence than is warranted in the minds of somewhat reasonable people more or less permanently.

[Deadlines? What Deadlines?]

Checked Worldometers today. Daily deaths in the USA are still high but the 7 day average for daily infections is down over 50% from where it peaked about a month ago, (254,607/day to 105798/day). Same for Canada, (8,885/day to 3,476/day). 

This is good. As long as we don't fuck it up like we did last summer, this is good.

 

[Crixus]

10 hours ago, The Anti-Targ said:

Don't know if this is what was done, but you could probably rule it out as a lab virus by looking at the genomic sequences of all the viruses the labs were/are studying and if there isn't an extremely close match with the original genome of SARS-CoV-2 then it's a pretty strong rule out. Not to say a lab wouldn't destroy all evidence it was working with the virus, but if the evidence is gone, then there is no proof. 

 

This is what I was a bit skeptical/confused about: the fact that the WHO was only allowed to visit an entire year after the initial outbreak, during which period there would have been plenty of time to get rid of evidence. Also, the visits were delayed/stalled due to 'bureaucratic' issues - I seem to recall WHO reps already en-route to China, only to be told they would be denied entry. This was sorted out, but one has to wonder about the situation on the ground. For instance, they visited the wet market thought to be the site for the start of the pandemic but what would they have hoped to uncover there after such a long time? Surely it would be quite difficult to get any sort of evidence? 

To be clear, I don't believe it was a lab created/escaped virus. I'm referring more to the overall approach from China regarding sharing info openly and taking action to minimise the chances of this happening again. Have wet markets been shut down across the country or are they still around, for example?

 

[Luzifer's right hand]

The found a significant number of South African variant infections in the state of Tyrol(Austria). They are trying to isolate the state now but it is probably way too late. It seems they can trace the infection to people bypassing flight restriction with a private plane who had a party after returning to Austria. They are trying to close the state border and the borders to Germany and Italy but the plan involves a rather low number law enforcement officers and I expect the usual Austrian style farce. The plan only involves controls on the main roads and it will start in Friday to give all infected tourists time to leave because ski tourism is still a thing btw...

Meanwhile staff and doctors of Austria's biggest hospital in Vienna are openly protesting the switch from the Pfizer to the AZ vaccine because of delivery problems. Other groups of Austrian doctors have written open letters saying that they want to get the Pfizer or the Moderna vaccine and not the AZ vaccine too.

[Zorral]

12 hours ago, Deadlines? What Deadlines? said:

As long as we don't fuck it up like we did last summer, this is good

Yet, that's exactly what we are doing, effing up like before, several times before in fact.  Opening up, which as just this moment an epidemiologist being interviewed said, "Opening the restaurants to indoor dining and churches for services and wedding is exactly what the virus loves right now, as the numbers dropped.  It gets a whole new lease on more effective and rapid contagion and spread.

The restaurant workers are put at vastly more risk, among the many other consequences, because, hey ho! they haven't gotten vaccinated, haven't been able to be vaccinated, for all the reasons.  Why aren't we sane and compassionate and wait another 8 weeks, while getting the workers their two doses?  No, of course not.

The labor is already overstressed and anxious, and now it's even worse.  They say so.  Every study has shown that indoor dining is at the top of the list for transmission.

[Padraig]

4 hours ago, Luzifer's right hand said:

Meanwhile staff and doctors of Austria's biggest hospital in Vienna are openly protesting the switch from the Pfizer to the AZ vaccine because of delivery problems. Other groups of Austrian doctors have written open letters saying that they want to get the Pfizer or the Moderna vaccine and not the AZ vaccine too.

Are some doctors getting the Pfizer/Moderna vaccine and others not?  Otherwise, it seems an easy choice.  You can get AZ now or Pfizer/Moderna in 3 months (say).  In fact, I presume you can get AZ now and get Pfizer in 6 months when supply issues are much improved.

[Luzifer's right hand]

6 minutes ago, Padraig said:

Are some doctors getting the Pfizer/Moderna vaccine and others not?  Otherwise, it seems an easy choice.  You can get AZ now or Pfizer/Moderna in 3 months (say).  In fact, I presume you can get AZ now and get Pfizer in 6 months when supply issues are much improved.

The first wave got the mRNA vaccines including people with mainly administration functions which is part of the reason why people are pissed. Here in Austria the anti AZ sentiment in both social media and normal media is immense and it feels like it is growing every day. 

[Zorral]

https://nymag.com/intelligencer/2021/02/harvards-michael-mina-on-covid-seasonality-vaccines.html

Quote

 

....Q: How do you see the state of things, right now? I’m having a hard time sort of juggling the bad news about strains versus the good news about vaccines and the trajectories going down. How about you?

Well, my personal feeling is we are seeing the benefits of seasonality hit, which I know some of my colleagues don’t necessarily agree with. But it’s not uncommon for coronaviruses to essentially start dropping around now. Most of the known coronaviruses have something on the order of a three-month window where they’re really infectious — when they’re really transmitting.

And that’s more or less what we were expecting would happen, or at least what I was expecting would happen, in the fall. In the summer, when a lot of people were saying, “This might not be a seasonal virus,” it was just so obvious to me that this was going to hit harder in the fall and that we needed to prepare for that. Now, I think the corollary is that there’s no reason to think that infection rates wouldn’t drop a few months later, just like all of the other coronaviruses. We don’t fully appreciate or understand why seasonality works like this, but if the trajectory stays this way and we also start to achieve some level of herd effects or herd immunity, I think the next few months could start to offer a reprieve. Ideally that will last through the summer until we get into next fall, when we’ll probably have another wave of it. The wild card, of course, being the variants.

 

 

[BigFatCoward]

Looks like we will hit our vaccine target. It's so long since we didnt fuck something up in the UK I feel a bit disorientated. 13.5 million first tests. 

[Fragile Bird]

58 minutes ago, BigFatCoward said:

Looks like we will hit our vaccine target. It's so long since we didnt fuck something up in the UK I feel a bit disorientated. 13.5 million first tests. 

?

Doses?

[IheartIheartTesla]

22 hours ago, Clueless Northman said:

And since the change is very recent, plenty of countries just don't have the new syringes, and have huge amounts of the other ones that won't be needed anymore.

Yeah, listen, I'm sure Pfizer is acting shadily and I don't think I explicitly blamed the Japanese authorities. Still, the 6 dose issue was known early in the days of the vaccine rollout (mid-December), and the recommendation to use low dead-space syringes came sometime mid-to-late January.  My frustration is with how everything seems to be reactive these days and there doesnt seem to have been any form of contingency planning.

I read that the US has obtained from BD 40 million of the low dead-space syringes out of a total of 286 million. The defense production act (or whatever its called) may be utilized to get more. I havent done the math yet, but probably an awful amount of waste will happen here in the US as well.

[Padraig]

4 hours ago, Luzifer's right hand said:

The first wave got the mRNA vaccines including people with mainly administration functions which is part of the reason why people are pissed. Here in Austria the anti AZ sentiment in both social media and normal media is immense and it feels like it is growing every day. 

Huh.  I can understand a desire to get the vaccine that has proven to be of higher efficacy.  But AZ still works.   Efficacy only tells part of the story anyhow.  Even if you get COVID, your chances of getting a serious case are vastly reduced once you have had the AZ vaccine.  There is a question mark about the SA variant but any (approved) vaccine is better than no vaccine.  Weird.  Glad we don't know that issue.  (We had one GP who has announced himself as "a conscientious objector".  So far he has been derided).

4 hours ago, Zorral said:

https://nymag.com/intelligencer/2021/02/harvards-michael-mina-on-covid-seasonality-vaccines.html

That is a very interesting article.  The points about seronegative people, sunlight, the fact that the vaccines are too similar etc.

[The Anti-Targ]

Interesting move by our govt on the vaccination front. So far, I think, only the Pfizer vaccine has been (provisionally) approved. The govt just announced that children (under 16) will not be getting vaccinated, at least for now. I think this is partly because of the trial data submitted for approval not including vaccination trials on under 16s, so the approval is only for over 16s. But I suspect also a somewhat money saving exercise. Epidemiologically it's acceptable since very low rates of significant illness and extremely low rate of death in children, and there is no circulating disease here for now anyway. It kind of also prevents any arguments and fights between pro and anti-vax parents, esp within a school context, and leaves decisions about vaccination in the hands of each individual rather than allowing nutty parents to make the decision on behalf of dependant children. Though this only really kicks that can down the road for when a under-16s vaccine is approved and the govt starts funding vaccinations to under 16s.

With Fauci now proclaiming fully vaccinated people should not be subject to qyarantie measures I wonder if Aus, NZ, Taiwan etc will open borders to people with vaccination certificates? Though given there isn't actually a reliable, recognised vaccination certification regime (unlike for animal trade where there is a very robust certification system for international movement), it might be some time before systems are out in place to be confident that someone turning up with a piece of paper saying they've been vaccinated can be accepted as actual proof of having been vaccinated. Being this is my professional wheelhouse, right now I don't trust any document proclaiming a person has been COVID-19 vaccinated no matter how formal or official it looks. So, while I agree in theory with Fauci, in practice a lot of work is needed before any credible certification system can be established.

 

[williamjm]

31 minutes ago, The Anti-Targ said:

Interesting move by our govt on the vaccination front. So far, I think, only the Pfizer vaccine has been (provisionally) approved. The govt just announced that children (under 16) will not be getting vaccinated, at least for now. I think this is partly because of the trial data submitted for approval not including vaccination trials on under 16s, so the approval is only for over 16s.

I think every other government is doing the same and only approving for adults at this time.

[Impmk2]

1 hour ago, The Anti-Targ said:

With Fauci now proclaiming fully vaccinated people should not be subject to qyarantie measures I wonder if Aus, NZ, Taiwan etc will open borders to people with vaccination certificates?

 

I can guarantee this will not happen. Even if the vaccine does completely block transmission where it is effective (unknown), a 90% efficacy still means 1:10 infected will still become symptomatic and potentially infectious. With a still completely unvaccinated high risk population in those countries it'd be negligent to the extreme to risk an outbreak at this stage (quite aside from also being politically suicidal). 

Once vaccinations of those high risk populations happen it'll be a different story.