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The Iron Bank's Horrible Endgame?


aeverett

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I've come to a horrifying realization when I put two fan theories together: The Iron Brank, Illyrio Mopatas, and a younger generation of Braavosi lordlings want Braavos and Pentosto become a new Slavers Bay, with most of the new slaves coming from Westeros' small folk, free folk, and disgraced lords.  

The idea that there is a pro-slavery movement growing in Braavos comes from the Order of the Greenhand's video essays on the Faceless Men and Arya's involvement with them.   The argument goes that the House of Black and White is being hired to kill people who stand in the way Faegon's invasion, the most notable being the insurance salesman that Arya is sent after who insures ships from Tarth (the Westerosi with the belt buckle that had a moon and star on it) and other houses with shipping investments.  They know Arya has Raff the Sweetling on her list, and he just so happens to come to Braavos with Harry Swyft, the crown's representative in talks with the Iron Bank.   Then they send her to become Mercy at the very theater Swyft is going to see a play, with Raff guarding him.   They were setting up Arya to take out Raff and have his disappearance tank negotiations.    The theory goes deeper, but ultimately the older, traditional, slavery-despising generation is old and sick, while the younger, hungrier men and merchants who intermingle with other Free City traders from cities that have slavery, hope to restructure Braavos' and Pentoshi law into allowing slavery, first in allowing slaves ships to dock and provision themselves under Braavosi sails, and then slowly to chip away at the legal prohibitions against slavery in Braavos. 

Illyrio Mopatas wants Faegon as his own personal puppet king, one raised in the Free Cities around slavery (They underestimate the good and honorable way Faegon was raised as Young Griff, or at least that's my reading of the young man in question).  

The second theory I recently reread on this message board, claims that Littlefinger's embezzlement scheme is being backed by the Iron Bank to force all Seven Kingdoms into an austerity regime and perpetual debt payments.   They have to have read through the royal accounts and they're whole deal is finance.  They'd immediately see the discrepancies that Tyrion figures out as Master of Coin.   The fact that they haven't denied loans or ratted Littlefinger out, suggests some sort of backdoor alliance.   However, my belief is that they are merely using Littlefinger; they'll let him move up the Westerosi chaos ladder, but if he climbs to high they'll stop him.  

So put these two things together, Westeros is seriously in debt and anyone who takes the throne will either pay their predecessors' bills plus staggering rolling interest, effectively taxing everyone in the Seven Kingdoms into penury and  shipping all of Westeros' wealth to Braavos, while leaving the Seven Kingdoms unable to raise funds to defend itself.   Then Braavos enters the slave trade, having the Iron Bank suggest that extra funds could be raised by selling smallfolk, Free Folk, and conquered lords into slavery, and turning the rest of the smallfolk who remain in Westeros into slaves for domestic production.   The indebted or overtaxed lords would have their bannermen, and possibly the Night's Watch, round up the smallfolk and Free Folk, and take them to the docks.  Illyrio and his allies would handle the shipping to Tyrosh, Volantis, or possibly a post-Dany Slaver's Bay, and the Iron Bank would settle accounts and get even richer off all the business and interest.

What they've missed is the Three-Eyed Raven.  With the power of the raven, any scheme the Iron Bank has where secrecy is paramount would be open to exposure.   If Bran were to become King, he'd be able to destroy the Iron Bank, by merely publishing all its secrets, which would give him leverage in debt repayment.   Perhaps Westeros would only repay the principal, thus keeping the bank solvent, but destroy their plans.   The bank is the hub of the conspiracy.   If Westeros gets the better of it and forces it's vampire squid tentacles out of it, the Seven Kingdoms might have a chance. 

 

 

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4 hours ago, aeverett said:

I've come to a horrifying realization when I put two fan theories together: The Iron Brank, Illyrio Mopatas, and a younger generation of Braavosi lordlings want Braavos and Pentosto become a new Slavers Bay, with most of the new slaves coming from Westeros' small folk, free folk, and disgraced lords.  

The idea that there is a pro-slavery movement growing in Braavos comes from the Order of the Greenhand's video essays on the Faceless Men and Arya's involvement with them.   The argument goes that the House of Black and White is being hired to kill people who stand in the way Faegon's invasion, the most notable being the insurance salesman that Arya is sent after who insures ships from Tarth (the Westerosi with the belt buckle that had a moon and star on it) and other houses with shipping investments.  They know Arya has Raff the Sweetling on her list, and he just so happens to come to Braavos with Harry Swyft, the crown's representative in talks with the Iron Bank.   Then they send her to become Mercy at the very theater Swyft is going to see a play, with Raff guarding him.   They were setting up Arya to take out Raff and have his disappearance tank negotiations.    The theory goes deeper, but ultimately the older, traditional, slavery-despising generation is old and sick, while the younger, hungrier men and merchants who intermingle with other Free City traders from cities that have slavery, hope to restructure Braavos' and Pentoshi law into allowing slavery, first in allowing slaves ships to dock and provision themselves under Braavosi sails, and then slowly to chip away at the legal prohibitions against slavery in Braavos. 

Illyrio Mopatas wants Faegon as his own personal puppet king, one raised in the Free Cities around slavery (They underestimate the good and honorable way Faegon was raised as Young Griff, or at least that's my reading of the young man in question).  

The second theory I recently reread on this message board, claims that Littlefinger's embezzlement scheme is being backed by the Iron Bank to force all Seven Kingdoms into an austerity regime and perpetual debt payments.   They have to have read through the royal accounts and they're whole deal is finance.  They'd immediately see the discrepancies that Tyrion figures out as Master of Coin.   The fact that they haven't denied loans or ratted Littlefinger out, suggests some sort of backdoor alliance.   However, my belief is that they are merely using Littlefinger; they'll let him move up the Westerosi chaos ladder, but if he climbs to high they'll stop him.  

So put these two things together, Westeros is seriously in debt and anyone who takes the throne will either pay their predecessors' bills plus staggering rolling interest, effectively taxing everyone in the Seven Kingdoms into penury and  shipping all of Westeros' wealth to Braavos, while leaving the Seven Kingdoms unable to raise funds to defend itself.   Then Braavos enters the slave trade, having the Iron Bank suggest that extra funds could be raised by selling smallfolk, Free Folk, and conquered lords into slavery, and turning the rest of the smallfolk who remain in Westeros into slaves for domestic production.   The indebted or overtaxed lords would have their bannermen, and possibly the Night's Watch, round up the smallfolk and Free Folk, and take them to the docks.  Illyrio and his allies would handle the shipping to Tyrosh, Volantis, or possibly a post-Dany Slaver's Bay, and the Iron Bank would settle accounts and get even richer off all the business and interest.

What they've missed is the Three-Eyed Raven.  With the power of the raven, any scheme the Iron Bank has where secrecy is paramount would be open to exposure.   If Bran were to become King, he'd be able to destroy the Iron Bank, by merely publishing all its secrets, which would give him leverage in debt repayment.   Perhaps Westeros would only repay the principal, thus keeping the bank solvent, but destroy their plans.   The bank is the hub of the conspiracy.   If Westeros gets the better of it and forces it's vampire squid tentacles out of it, the Seven Kingdoms might have a chance. 

 

 

Makes a bit of sense, especially since the Bravoosi ships are apparently selling the wildling refugees from Mole's Town into slavery.

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That's quite an interesting theory.  The Iron Bank would have to dispatch the leaders of Braavos to carry out this scheme.  I am not sold but it is an interesting thought.  I am not sold because the people from across the sea would not make good slaves.  It will be far cheaper to let humans do what they do.  Have children and multiply. 

What they envy from the west are lands and titles.  Putting the lords of westeros in debt with the bank mean they will have to sell assets.  The only assets they have after the coin is gone are lands and titles.  A puppet king can grant the titles.  The indebted lords can pay with land.  Lord Ilyrio of House Mopatis is an attractive position to be.

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8 hours ago, Floki of the Ironborn said:

Makes a bit of sense, especially since the Bravoosi ships are apparently selling the wildling refugees from Mole's Town into slavery.

No, they're not. It was a Lysene ship that was seized by the Braavosi after they found the wildlings in the holds. The only Braavosi ships that came anywhere near Hardhome as of right now in the story are the ones that Jon Snow borrowed from Tycho Nestoris for his rescue mission.

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I have a less dark interpretation. The current Sealord is "sickly and failing" at the same time that war and revolutions are coming to the Free Cities. Some factions in Braavos might want the current Sealord gone quickly so they can elect stronger hands.

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No.

Braavos was founded by slaves and opposing it is practically in their DNA.   I have seen no evidence, as in zero, to suggest that anyone in Braavos has any interest in even tolerating slavery, much less participating in it.

The Iron Bank is a bank.  They want to get paid.   Cersei held off payment to build ships instead.  But Westeros is not broke, and somebody (possibly the Lannisters) will be able to provide enough cash to keep the bankers quiescent for the time being.

I doubt Raff's presence in Swyft's  party was even known before his arrival.  Arya has been at the theater for months. 

Gonna call nonsense on this one.  No evidence to back it up, and it goes against what we do know about Braavos. 

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No way. Pentos hates Braavos. Under the peace treaty signed under very unusual circumstances, Braavos forbids Pentos from raising its own army and forbids its citizens from dealing in slaves, causing a major financial hit to men like Illyrio.

What I think is actually going on is that Illyrio has bankrolled Littlefinger's rise to power, making it seem like he's a financial genius but is in fact merely spending money from Illyrio and other magisters whenever its needed. At the same time, LF is taking out massive loans from the IB and others and then funneling that money back into the IB under a series of proxy accounts.

With the bank overextended on its loans, LF departs the capital and the crown, mired in the civil war that Illyrio and Petyr engineered, has no choice but to suspend payments on the loans because, well, as we can see, its coffers are actually empty. This will cause the IB to do what it always does: give even more money to a usurper who will repay all the loans once they come into power. But while this may work in Essos, where anyone with enough power to rule the streets can become an Archon or a Triarch, the Iron Throne must pass to a legitimate heir to the king. Barring that, a claimant must subdue each of the great houses that make up the kingdom, a lengthy and expensive process.

So here is the situation: the IB is backing Stannis, who is currently freezing his Baratheons off in the north and has not even taken Winterfell, let alone the Iron Throne. Meanwhile, Illyrio has his man, fAegon, supposedly sitting in Storm's End, poised to take King's Landing, and the crown with it. So if all goes according to plan, fAegon will sit the Iron Throne soon while Stannis will be defeated, or dead, or both. That leaves the IB without a champion, and the money it loaned to both Stannis and the crown will be gone, since fAegon is not going to honor debts incurred by usurpers and murderers.

Meanwhile, of course, there is Dany's disruption of the slave trade that, although not exactly planned for, will disrupt trade across the board, further diminishing the IB's income.

Then, all it will take is a whispering campaign that the IB is running low on gold, plus the coordinated withdraw of all of those proxy accounts so that the bank closes its windows and denies any further withdraws. And before you can say Queen Cersei's Muffin, panic will set in that will drive the bank into insolvency -- just like what happened to the Rogares.

And when that happens, of course, the Braavosi fiat currency, the iron coin, will lose all value except for the iron it's made of, which will throw the entire Braavosi economy into the crapper, and then Pentos can tear up the peace treaty, regain its autonomy, raise its own army once again and rich men like Illyrio can get even richer selling slaves.

Once that is done, Littlefinger can do what he likes with Westeros.

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26 minutes ago, John Suburbs said:

No way. Pentos hates Braavos. Under the peace treaty signed under very unusual circumstances, Braavos forbids Pentos from raising its own army and forbids its citizens from dealing in slaves, causing a major financial hit to men like Illyrio.

What I think is actually going on is that Illyrio has bankrolled Littlefinger's rise to power, making it seem like he's a financial genius but is in fact merely spending money from Illyrio and other magisters whenever its needed. At the same time, LF is taking out massive loans from the IB and others and then funneling that money back into the IB under a series of proxy accounts.

With the bank overextended on its loans, LF departs the capital and the crown, mired in the civil war that Illyrio and Petyr engineered, has no choice but to suspend payments on the loans because, well, as we can see, its coffers are actually empty. This will cause the IB to do what it always does: give even more money to a usurper who will repay all the loans once they come into power. But while this may work in Essos, where anyone with enough power to rule the streets can become an Archon or a Triarch, the Iron Throne must pass to a legitimate heir to the king. Barring that, a claimant must subdue each of the great houses that make up the kingdom, a lengthy and expensive process.

So here is the situation: the IB is backing Stannis, who is currently freezing his Baratheons off in the north and has not even taken Winterfell, let alone the Iron Throne. Meanwhile, Illyrio has his man, fAegon, supposedly sitting in Storm's End, poised to take King's Landing, and the crown with it. So if all goes according to plan, fAegon will sit the Iron Throne soon while Stannis will be defeated, or dead, or both. That leaves the IB without a champion, and the money it loaned to both Stannis and the crown will be gone, since fAegon is not going to honor debts incurred by usurpers and murderers.

Meanwhile, of course, there is Dany's disruption of the slave trade that, although not exactly planned for, will disrupt trade across the board, further diminishing the IB's income.

Then, all it will take is a whispering campaign that the IB is running low on gold, plus the coordinated withdraw of all of those proxy accounts so that the bank closes its windows and denies any further withdraws. And before you can say Queen Cersei's Muffin, panic will set in that will drive the bank into insolvency -- just like what happened to the Rogares.

And when that happens, of course, the Braavosi fiat currency, the iron coin, will lose all value except for the iron it's made of, which will throw the entire Braavosi economy into the crapper, and then Pentos can tear up the peace treaty, regain its autonomy, raise its own army once again and rich men like Illyrio can get even richer selling slaves.

Once that is done, Littlefinger can do what he likes with Westeros.

Wow. You made a scenario where I am sad that a bank will fail. No easy task.

But also, how much richer does Illyrio need to be? How much better can he eat? What can he buy that he can’t already afford?

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One thing I never see anyone mention is what will happen with the wildlings once the "peace returns"? Do people really think they'll be allowed to settle south of the wall? I don't think so.

GRRM has often mentioned how he'd like to know what Aragorn did after Sauron was taken out: did the orcs just all die? If not, what did Aragorn do with them? Welcome them? Murder them all, even the children?

The wildlings would not be accepted, and if the Others are no longer a threat, they would likely prefer to return to their customs, their land. But between being there, and wanting to leave, something would happen.

I always expected them to start getting attacked/hunted down once the big evil was defeated. The idea that they would end up getting enslaved to pay off debt sounds really likely and I hadn't thought about it. This would happen after the Others are defeated, and I presume while Aegon is still in power.

It does add more to Daenerys' motivation: instead of just being about taking the throne, she would be seeking to put an end to the slavery of the freefolk as well. This adds them to her army of boogeymen (Unsullied, Ironborns, Dothrakis), which makes her even more unpopular among Westerosis.

I don't think there is a slavery conspiracy, but it seems likely that there would be a convergence of interest in enslaving the freefolk at some point in time and an appropriate narrative route for it to happen.

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44 minutes ago, Canon Claude said:

Wow. You made a scenario where I am sad that a bank will fail. No easy task.

But also, how much richer does Illyrio need to be? How much better can he eat? What can he buy that he can’t already afford?

Sadly, no rich person thinks that way.

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9 hours ago, John Suburbs said:

No way. Pentos hates Braavos. Under the peace treaty signed under very unusual circumstances, Braavos forbids Pentos from raising its own army and forbids its citizens from dealing in slaves, causing a major financial hit to men like Illyrio.

What I think is actually going on is that Illyrio has bankrolled Littlefinger's rise to power, making it seem like he's a financial genius but is in fact merely spending money from Illyrio and other magisters whenever its needed. At the same time, LF is taking out massive loans from the IB and others and then funneling that money back into the IB under a series of proxy accounts.

With the bank overextended on its loans, LF departs the capital and the crown, mired in the civil war that Illyrio and Petyr engineered, has no choice but to suspend payments on the loans because, well, as we can see, its coffers are actually empty. This will cause the IB to do what it always does: give even more money to a usurper who will repay all the loans once they come into power. But while this may work in Essos, where anyone with enough power to rule the streets can become an Archon or a Triarch, the Iron Throne must pass to a legitimate heir to the king. Barring that, a claimant must subdue each of the great houses that make up the kingdom, a lengthy and expensive process.

So here is the situation: the IB is backing Stannis, who is currently freezing his Baratheons off in the north and has not even taken Winterfell, let alone the Iron Throne. Meanwhile, Illyrio has his man, fAegon, supposedly sitting in Storm's End, poised to take King's Landing, and the crown with it. So if all goes according to plan, fAegon will sit the Iron Throne soon while Stannis will be defeated, or dead, or both. That leaves the IB without a champion, and the money it loaned to both Stannis and the crown will be gone, since fAegon is not going to honor debts incurred by usurpers and murderers.

Meanwhile, of course, there is Dany's disruption of the slave trade that, although not exactly planned for, will disrupt trade across the board, further diminishing the IB's income.

Then, all it will take is a whispering campaign that the IB is running low on gold, plus the coordinated withdraw of all of those proxy accounts so that the bank closes its windows and denies any further withdraws. And before you can say Queen Cersei's Muffin, panic will set in that will drive the bank into insolvency -- just like what happened to the Rogares.

And when that happens, of course, the Braavosi fiat currency, the iron coin, will lose all value except for the iron it's made of, which will throw the entire Braavosi economy into the crapper, and then Pentos can tear up the peace treaty, regain its autonomy, raise its own army once again and rich men like Illyrio can get even richer selling slaves.

Once that is done, Littlefinger can do what he likes with Westeros.

While I'd prefer your version over my own, my problem with all this is that in order for this to work, Ilyrio has to be a Pentoshi patriot.  Yes, it's his home, but the rich live internationally, even in the World of Ice and Fire.   We've seen his rings and other garments signifying allegiance to factions in other Free Cities, and at Dany's Wedding, we see how international he truly is with the guests.  Why would he care if Pentos gets back the slave trade, when he can operate so well now?  

As for the Iron Bank, they have their fingers in everything, not just Westeros.   As far as I can tell, they'd take a hit from loosing out on the Westerosi loans, but not so much that they'd risk insolvency.  What's more, in twenty years or so, once Faegon settled in, those he shuts out of power will be in a position to rebel if he farts wrong, and Faegon appears to care too much for the small folk, much like Aegon V.  That will upset the lords of Westeros, who will bide their time, and eventually, once the continent is back on its feet and the population somewhat rebounded, they'll reach out to the Iron Bank.  Tywin understood the power of the Iron Bank, which is why, as Hand of the King, he went to extraordinary lengths to appease it.  

Again, I hope you're right as Littlefinger would be pitted against a Westeros that can rally around opposing him once things come out in the wash, and the shifting sands of Essos' politics will give Westeros the opportunity to rebound in a generation or two, but I still think the slavers are making a play for Westeros.  Beating people into submission is the Ghiscari specialty.  Westerosi can be made into slaves if their lords no longer protect them in order to pay back debt.   

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On 2/12/2021 at 2:20 PM, Egged said:

One thing I never see anyone mention is what will happen with the wildlings once the "peace returns"? Do people really think they'll be allowed to settle south of the wall? I don't think so.

GRRM has often mentioned how he'd like to know what Aragorn did after Sauron was taken out: did the orcs just all die? If not, what did Aragorn do with them? Welcome them? Murder them all, even the children?

The wildlings would not be accepted, and if the Others are no longer a threat, they would likely prefer to return to their customs, their land. But between being there, and wanting to leave, something would happen.

I always expected them to start getting attacked/hunted down once the big evil was defeated. The idea that they would end up getting enslaved to pay off debt sounds really likely and I hadn't thought about it. This would happen after the Others are defeated, and I presume while Aegon is still in power.

It does add more to Daenerys' motivation: instead of just being about taking the throne, she would be seeking to put an end to the slavery of the freefolk as well. This adds them to her army of boogeymen (Unsullied, Ironborns, Dothrakis), which makes her even more unpopular among Westerosis.

I don't think there is a slavery conspiracy, but it seems likely that there would be a convergence of interest in enslaving the freefolk at some point in time and an appropriate narrative route for it to happen.

I didn't mean the Iron Bank was gunning for the Free Folk specifically, only that houses that hate them, when faced with taxation so high the highborn can't defend their own lands properly, or debt service that accomplishes the same thing, the Iron Bank, now freed from the the restraints of anti-slavery laws, might suggest that slaves would serve as a means of repayment.  The Northern Lords, particularly those that have been raided and lost women from their lands to Wilding raids, would sell Free Folk before their own smallfolk.   If the highborn aren't placed in such a precarious situation, they'd never enslave anyone, seeing as slavery is detested in Westeros both North and South, with only the Ironborn still continuing the practice.  

As for the Dothraki and Ironborn, they ARE boogeymen.  Same with the Free Folk.  They raid, reave, and rape their way through life.  The Westerosi are not irrationally bigoted in demonizing them as they've behaved like demons for centuries, if not thousands of years.  If they were willing to settle down and give up their violent ways, that would be something, but unless they reject raiding and raping, the Westerosi would be fools to accept them with open arms.

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On 2/11/2021 at 6:22 PM, aeverett said:

I've come to a horrifying realization when I put two fan theories together: The Iron Brank, Illyrio Mopatas, and a younger generation of Braavosi lordlings want Braavos and Pentosto become a new Slavers Bay, with most of the new slaves coming from Westeros' small folk, free folk, and disgraced lords.  

The idea that there is a pro-slavery movement growing in Braavos comes from the Order of the Greenhand's video essays on the Faceless Men and Arya's involvement with them.   The argument goes that the House of Black and White is being hired to kill people who stand in the way Faegon's invasion, the most notable being the insurance salesman that Arya is sent after who insures ships from Tarth (the Westerosi with the belt buckle that had a moon and star on it) and other houses with shipping investments.  They know Arya has Raff the Sweetling on her list, and he just so happens to come to Braavos with Harry Swyft, the crown's representative in talks with the Iron Bank.   Then they send her to become Mercy at the very theater Swyft is going to see a play, with Raff guarding him.   They were setting up Arya to take out Raff and have his disappearance tank negotiations.    The theory goes deeper, but ultimately the older, traditional, slavery-despising generation is old and sick, while the younger, hungrier men and merchants who intermingle with other Free City traders from cities that have slavery, hope to restructure Braavos' and Pentoshi law into allowing slavery, first in allowing slaves ships to dock and provision themselves under Braavosi sails, and then slowly to chip away at the legal prohibitions against slavery in Braavos. 

Illyrio Mopatas wants Faegon as his own personal puppet king, one raised in the Free Cities around slavery (They underestimate the good and honorable way Faegon was raised as Young Griff, or at least that's my reading of the young man in question).  

The second theory I recently reread on this message board, claims that Littlefinger's embezzlement scheme is being backed by the Iron Bank to force all Seven Kingdoms into an austerity regime and perpetual debt payments.   They have to have read through the royal accounts and they're whole deal is finance.  They'd immediately see the discrepancies that Tyrion figures out as Master of Coin.   The fact that they haven't denied loans or ratted Littlefinger out, suggests some sort of backdoor alliance.   However, my belief is that they are merely using Littlefinger; they'll let him move up the Westerosi chaos ladder, but if he climbs to high they'll stop him.  

So put these two things together, Westeros is seriously in debt and anyone who takes the throne will either pay their predecessors' bills plus staggering rolling interest, effectively taxing everyone in the Seven Kingdoms into penury and  shipping all of Westeros' wealth to Braavos, while leaving the Seven Kingdoms unable to raise funds to defend itself.   Then Braavos enters the slave trade, having the Iron Bank suggest that extra funds could be raised by selling smallfolk, Free Folk, and conquered lords into slavery, and turning the rest of the smallfolk who remain in Westeros into slaves for domestic production.   The indebted or overtaxed lords would have their bannermen, and possibly the Night's Watch, round up the smallfolk and Free Folk, and take them to the docks.  Illyrio and his allies would handle the shipping to Tyrosh, Volantis, or possibly a post-Dany Slaver's Bay, and the Iron Bank would settle accounts and get even richer off all the business and interest.

What they've missed is the Three-Eyed Raven.  With the power of the raven, any scheme the Iron Bank has where secrecy is paramount would be open to exposure.   If Bran were to become King, he'd be able to destroy the Iron Bank, by merely publishing all its secrets, which would give him leverage in debt repayment.   Perhaps Westeros would only repay the principal, thus keeping the bank solvent, but destroy their plans.   The bank is the hub of the conspiracy.   If Westeros gets the better of it and forces it's vampire squid tentacles out of it, the Seven Kingdoms might have a chance. 

I have thought about how the endgame of the series being that after the dust settles, Westeros - devastated by apocalyptic wars and the woes of a brutal winter - must find a way to pay back the Iron Bank and prevent a total takeover without starving themselves to death. Cue Aragorn's tax plan.

However, I've never went this far in my thoughts.

If the Braavosi are, in fact, planning on going this far, then Daenerys needs to pay them a visit and give them a taste of fire and blood. Your theory pans out because the Braavosi are, in fact, trying to find a contingency plan as far as the dragons are concerned. And it seems like Arya is going to have a lot to do.

Because, just as the Braavosi have not accounted for skinchangers and are trying to account for the dragons (even though they ultimately will fail), they are also underestimating Daenerys Targaryen.

Just when people think that they can either neutralize her or make her into a pawn, she makes miracles happen and accumulates more power and influence. Either that or she just does the exact opposite of what they want/expect her to do.

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4 hours ago, BlackLightning said:

I have thought about how the endgame of the series being that after the dust settles, Westeros - devastated by apocalyptic wars and the woes of a brutal winter - must find a way to pay back the Iron Bank and prevent a total takeover without starving themselves to death. Cue Aragorn's tax plan.

However, I've never went this far in my thoughts.

If the Braavosi are, in fact, planning on going this far, then Daenerys needs to pay them a visit and give them a taste of fire and blood. Your theory pans out because the Braavosi are, in fact, trying to find a contingency plan as far as the dragons are concerned. And it seems like Arya is going to have a lot to do.

Because, just as the Braavosi have not accounted for skinchangers and are trying to account for the dragons (even though they ultimately will fail), they are also underestimating Daenerys Targaryen.

Just when people think that they can either neutralize her or make her into a pawn, she makes miracles happen and accumulates more power and influence. Either that or she just does the exact opposite of what they want/expect her to do.

I don't doubt Dany.  She's an amazing power, but the Iron Bank is more than just a structure in Braavos, in this scenario, it's a loosely knit international cabal.  Her dragons would be as effective as Aegon the Conqueror was against Dornish guerilla warfare because of the same decentralized nature of them.  Yes she'd take out some assets, but if the IB is as smart as they appear, she'd not destroy enough of them to make them illiquid.  

Bran's power let's him strike at the Iron Bank's achilless heel, secrecy and discretion.  All Bran would have to do is invite every foreign ship captain and the lords and ladies in Kings Landing to the dragon pit, and then have Tyrion read a list of the most secretive deals the Iron Bank is involved in, giving names, dates, and copious details, or better yet have Samwell Tarly record the bank's sins and publish a tell all.  The Iron Bank would be under water and it's officials dead in a matter of weeks.    

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On 2/12/2021 at 1:58 PM, Canon Claude said:

Wow. You made a scenario where I am sad that a bank will fail. No easy task.

But also, how much richer does Illyrio need to be? How much better can he eat? What can he buy that he can’t already afford?

It's not about money. It's about the power that money brings. It's about shedding the yoke that Braavos has placed on Pentos.

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On 2/12/2021 at 11:14 PM, aeverett said:

While I'd prefer your version over my own, my problem with all this is that in order for this to work, Ilyrio has to be a Pentoshi patriot.  Yes, it's his home, but the rich live internationally, even in the World of Ice and Fire.   We've seen his rings and other garments signifying allegiance to factions in other Free Cities, and at Dany's Wedding, we see how international he truly is with the guests.  Why would he care if Pentos gets back the slave trade, when he can operate so well now?  

As for the Iron Bank, they have their fingers in everything, not just Westeros.   As far as I can tell, they'd take a hit from loosing out on the Westerosi loans, but not so much that they'd risk insolvency.  What's more, in twenty years or so, once Faegon settled in, those he shuts out of power will be in a position to rebel if he farts wrong, and Faegon appears to care too much for the small folk, much like Aegon V.  That will upset the lords of Westeros, who will bide their time, and eventually, once the continent is back on its feet and the population somewhat rebounded, they'll reach out to the Iron Bank.  Tywin understood the power of the Iron Bank, which is why, as Hand of the King, he went to extraordinary lengths to appease it.  

Again, I hope you're right as Littlefinger would be pitted against a Westeros that can rally around opposing him once things come out in the wash, and the shifting sands of Essos' politics will give Westeros the opportunity to rebound in a generation or two, but I still think the slavers are making a play for Westeros.  Beating people into submission is the Ghiscari specialty.  Westerosi can be made into slaves if their lords no longer protect them in order to pay back debt.   

Yes, the IB has its fingers in everything, including the slave trade indirectly. And as Illyrio says, "the world is one great web, and a man dare not touch a single strand lest all the others tremble." Dany has touched a major strand in Slavers Bay, and all the others will soon be trembling, bringing a major hit to the IB's income. Plus, we have to consider that the loans to the Iron Throne are far larger than any single loan to the Free Cities. And with the very real possibility that those cities are also on the verge of slave revolts, the Iron Bank could be in for a world of hurt.

Indeed, we are already seeing signs that it is in trouble. First, it has called in loans all over Westeros. Some may see this as a power tactic to force the throne to resume its payments, but if this is the plan it is bound to fail. With what little of a functioning economy remained in the midst of civil war now suffering from a lack of capital, incomes to the throne will be even less, making it even more difficult to pay back their loan. And they are not likely to get that money back from the Westerosi lords and merchants, etc. People take out loans because they need to purchase something, so that money is gone. In financial circles, any time a bank starts calling in functioning loans, it's a sign of trouble. It means it has to sacrifice future profitability because it needs cash now.

Second, we have the loans to the NW. When Jon first broaches the subject, Tycho's response is no way, no how -- before he's even heard Jon's proposal. Then over hours of negotiations, the impossible became possible. And we later find out that a key part of the deal is that Jon will hand over the wealth of the wildlings, meager as it is, as collateral to secure the loan. I suspect the rest will be paid off in wood, which is plentiful north of the Wall but scarce and valuable in Pentos. So here we have the wealthiest, most powerful bank in the world and it can't even come up with a few thousand gold for turnips and onions to keep a few thousand people alive over the winter? To me, this is another sign that the banks coffers are low and that the IB is desperate for any deal that brings cash in right now.

It doesn't matter what fAegon will or won't do over the next 20 years. The IB can collapse in a single day, just like the Bank of Rogare did -- and it was said to be even wealthier and more powerful than the Iron Bank.

And I can't see the Ghiscari would want to come all the way to Westeros for slaves when they have ample supplies from the Dothraki, their own breeding stocks, and relatively defenseless places like Naath and the Baskilisk Isles. But I guess we'll see soon enough.

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This is interesting.

That puts Varys on team slaver and it would create a situation where the throne is beholden to slavers - even more interesting if it's Dany's throne than if it's Faegon's, but most of IM's machinations seem to be for the benefit of Faegon. 

Varys' confessions to the dying Keven Lannister don't jive with this. The king that he describes Faegon becoming is not a slaver or a slaver's stooge. That doesn't mean that Varys isn't Illyrio's dupe, but I don't think that he had any reason to be insincere with Kevan.  He's not going to scrawl out Varys' plan in his blood with his dying breath.

I like this idea though.  Of course Bravos isn't politically static and of course there would be merchants who want to bring back the slave trade and we know IM has unsullied and slaves in his possession despite the laws.  This is the first potential motive that I've read for IM that wasn't uncharacteristically sentimental or romantic or just weak (master of coin? he wants that headache?).  I think I'll check out that video sometime.

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On 2/13/2021 at 10:55 PM, aeverett said:

Bran's power let's him strike at the Iron Bank's achilless heel, secrecy and discretion.  All Bran would have to do is invite every foreign ship captain and the lords and ladies in Kings Landing to the dragon pit, and then have Tyrion read a list of the most secretive deals the Iron Bank is involved in, giving names, dates, and copious details, or better yet have Samwell Tarly record the bank's sins and publish a tell all.  The Iron Bank would be under water and it's officials dead in a matter of weeks.    

Why do you think Tyrion would be so allied with Bran Stark?

I can only see Bran doing something like that so as to get Tyrion to expose himself. Tyrion is bad news to the Stark family due to his schemes for Sansa and Winterfell.

Why would Bran co-opt Tyrion?

18 hours ago, Jay21 said:

This is interesting.

That puts Varys on team slaver and it would create a situation where the throne is beholden to slavers - even more interesting if it's Dany's throne than if it's Faegon's, but most of IM's machinations seem to be for the benefit of Faegon. 

Varys' confessions to the dying Keven Lannister don't jive with this. The king that he describes Faegon becoming is not a slaver or a slaver's stooge. That doesn't mean that Varys isn't Illyrio's dupe, but I don't think that he had any reason to be insincere with Kevan.  He's not going to scrawl out Varys' plan in his blood with his dying breath.

I like this idea though.  Of course Bravos isn't politically static and of course there would be merchants who want to bring back the slave trade and we know IM has unsullied and slaves in his possession despite the laws.  This is the first potential motive that I've read for IM that wasn't uncharacteristically sentimental or romantic or just weak (master of coin? he wants that headache?).  I think I'll check out that video sometime.

Slavery is not banned in Pentos. The slave trade is banned in Pentos.

Meaning that the Pentoshi cannot go out and make people slaves; they must instead breed slaves.

Think of United States. In the 18th century, people from the United States could go to modern-day Nigeria, kidnap people and take them back to, say, Virginia and make them slaves. In the 19th century, that was illegal: slave owners and traders must either use the slaves to make more slaves, make more slaves themselves (i.e. rape and the "one drop rule") or illegally make these voyages to Africa or the Caribbean.

I'll put it like this. I don't believe a single word that Varys says. I'm not saying that Varys was lying to Kevan but I'm saying Varys didn't tell Kevan the whole story. Varys says that he cares about the stability and sanctity of the realm yet he has made a career of doing the exact opposite (destabilizing and soiling the realm) so that his "perfect king" can ascend to the Iron Throne.

Varys has yet to tell the full story of what he heard in the flames and why he hates magic. Varys (and Illyrio) also have yet to explain why did they had always planned on neglecting and abandoning Viserys and Daenerys. Varys also set Tyrion up to kill Tywin...why? We know next to nothing about Varys' background and what we do know is questionable.

fAegon grew up very differently than Daenerys and likely grew up in comfort where slaves were at his service. He's also much more likely to sympathize with the slavers and pro-slavery noblemen of the Free Cities. So who knows? fAegon could turn a blind eye to the proliferation of slavery in Essos and Westeros which would serve as another reason why Daenerys would want to destroy him.

Wasn't Varys a slave? If so, he being a slave doesn't make him anti-slavery. Areo Hotah was a slave and he is pro-slavery. Maybe not pro-slavery in the sense of "Yes, make more slaves and treat them worst than you treat swine" but pro-slavery in the sense "People can do whatever. It worked out for me..."

3 hours ago, Rose of Red Lake said:

There are a few places in the story where a society is shown to be thriving because it's not built on slavery, endless conquest, or inheritance by nuclear weapons - Braavos is one of those places. The Iron Bank will endure, to make a point.

Right.

But the point that OP is making is that the Iron Bank's endurance could be the bitter to the bittersweet ending.

On 2/15/2021 at 1:38 PM, John Suburbs said:

as Illyrio says, "the world is one great web, and a man dare not touch a single strand lest all the others tremble." Dany has touched a major strand in Slavers Bay, and all the others will soon be trembling, bringing a major hit to the IB's income.

Gee.

When you put it like that, there is definitely no way Dany is going to survive the series. She has way too many enemies. First it was Ned, then Robb and Cat, then Jon. I think at the end of the series, it will be Dany's turn and she won't escaping this.

All those other strands are already trembling. She is drawing people to her from all over the known world and she's  not even doing it on purpose. What happens when she starts doing it on purpose.

And Dany definitely has touched more than one major strand. She's touched the Qartheen thread already and will touch it again before the end of the next book. She's touched the Dothraki thread multiple times in multiple ways with one of those times being her decision not to go back to Vaes Dothrak and become a khaleen. She woke dragons from stone and has now claimed the largest of the dragons as her mount.

If she keeps this up, she'll end up unraveling and destroying the entire world so that the new world can be born. Slayer of lies and breaker of chains indeed.

Kill the boy. Kill the boy and let the man be born.

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