Who would you have voted to be Lord Commander?

[King17]

Just now, CamiloRP said:

That's false. Even ignoring the Riverlands, in the North, the Stormlands, Dorne, the Crownlands and the Reach they think him a bastard, add the fact that the Iron Islands don't care and you have all the kingdoms with the exception of the Westerlands.

Also, the whole of Robb's kingdom believed him the true king, does that mean he wasn't a rebel?

Nobody believes the bastard story and at the moment the lannisters control about 5 of the 7 kingdoms I think it's clear whose side is winning and who is considered legitimate.

[King17]

1 minute ago, CamiloRP said:

While putting the North, the biggest piece of land in the realm, against them. And that's one terrain they hope to pacify and rule, a terrain that already hates them, attacking the Watch would make them eternal enemies, and would cause other kingdoms to rethink their allegiance too. For teaching a lesson, kill the LC, attacking the Watch is pointless. 

Tywin has northern hostages and can afford to piss off the north stannis cannot.

[Walda]

13 hours ago, King17 said:

bowen marsh isn't wrong if the watch has to pick a side it had best not be the losing one.

True.

But does Bowen Marsh know which side will be the winning one?

And will that side be the side that wins in the North?

Not much point the Black Brothers demonstrating their loyalty to the Iron Throne and receiving 100 felons and spades, while King Euron rules the North and the wildlings breach the Wall in thousands to escape White Walkers.

Which is exactly the course Tywin Lannister foresaw for the North, only he doesn't believe in White Walkers and instead thought to form an alliance with Mance against the Watch, and had no intention of giving the Watch so many men, or so much steel.

And, as Othel Yarwyck pointed out, Stannis is right there, right now, with an army that is considerably larger and stronger than the Watch. He has done the Lord Commander the courtesy of informing him of his plans to take the Nightfort as his seat during the war, repopulate the Gift, and attack the Dreadfort. He didn't have to. If the Lord Commander had not adopted a co-operative attitude he would simply have ignored him, needs must.

Jon Snow has managed to build the strength of the Watch, retain ownership of the way-castles of the Wall, and control of all of them bar the Nightfort. He has ensured the Gift will not become the large estates of Southron lords, but will be small holding of free settlers (ensuring optimal economic development of the area in the short term -bleak as that may be with winter breathing down their necks) with similar culture (and blood ties to) the Northern clans that will be their neighbours (quarrelsome as they are likely to be).

Most importantly, those small claims are likely to be held and defended, all the way along the Wall, all the way through the gift, by people who know how to survive and fight in a Northern winter. And all those people are currently loyal-ish to Stannis and the Night's Watch, who happen to be manning the Wall. All of whom are committed to preserving the realms of men, regardless who sits the Iron throne or Seastone chair. 

The Watch is now in a much stronger position than it was when Jeor Mormont had command. 

Now consider what Bowen Marsh envisioned. Janos Slynt commander of the Night's Watch.A system of promotion by privilege, with titled cronies like Ser Aliser Thorne and Ser Glendon Hewett dispensing rough justice at any hint of difference, weakness, or innovation. All the gates to the North are firmly sealed, the Watch preserve their men and stores by bunkering down, a bit over two hundred men in each of the the three manned waycastles, their only knowledge of what happens north of the Wall being what patrols can see from the top of it.

  Of course, tens of thousands of wildlings are attempting to climb the wall and thousands are roaming or settling in the Gift without the Black Brothers' leave or knowledge. For every one the patrols catch, there are a dozen they don't. For every ladder they cut down there are three put up. For every patrol that makes it back whole, another had men lost in the fighting, or that never returned to tell the tale. Patrols become the duty of the least-favoured half-rationed men, led by commanders Slynt and company would rather be without. The Watch shrink back and defend their own, conserve their resources for the long winter.

The defence of the Gift would be divided between Stannis and the neighbouring Northern clans. Wildlings would control the Gift and all the Wall bar Castle Black, Eastwatch, and the Shadow Tower. But Stannis would be weaker, the Wildlings stronger, the Mountain Clans would be openly at war against both of them. Stannis would still fight the Ironborn, but without the introductions and local guides Jon Snow provided him, this would have won him little or no local support from the Northerners. 

As it is, the winter snows his army are so ill prepared for could kill Stannis yet. Or the Bolton army gathered at Winterfell. But Stannis is in a stronger situation than he would have been if he had marched down the Kingsroad for the Dreadfort as Bowen Marsh would have let him. The actions of his army and the clansmen together against the Ironborn have been more effective for the defense of the North, and less bloody, than they would have been if Stannis and the locals had been fighting each other as well.

If Slynt held Castle Black, Alys would have been captured by Cregan and imprisoned in the Karhold. The Karhold's green boys and greybeards would be fighting off wildling raiders from the North while attempting to keep faith with the Dreadfort in the South. In the end, the Flayed Men would take over their lands, and those of the Umbers, depleted by their battles with Stannis and the Wildlings.

None of this would give any joy to Cersei. Or any concern, while they were destroying Stannis and each other. 

Meanwhile at the wall, low rations, cabin fever, fear of being picked off by wildlings or freezing on watch take their inevitable toll in the inequitable and unjust climate Slynt creates as commander. Of course with the likes of Sweet Donnel around, there will be a stewards mutiny, Slynt scalped, Bowen's secert larders raided. While the food lasts, perhaps Three Finger Hobb rules briefly as King in Castle Black.

Cersei would do nothing to save them or stop them, as long as they stay in the North. She will refer the matter to Bolton, assuming he has not been assassinated (which I do, as the parallels between the mystery murders at Winterfell under Bolton, and the mystery murders at Winterfell under Theon make me suspect they are orchestrated by Roose, and just another jolly jape for Ramsey).

He might see the value of taking a castle or the entire wall as his own fortress against any remaining Umber, Karstark or Manderly rebels sheltering in the far North. If anyone in the Lannister loop could bother collaborating with Mance it would be Roose (although Mance might not care for the way he goes about it - I notice that none of Rooses allies feel they are getting more than they give). I doubt any Northerner would see much value in keeping the Night's Watch that had comprehensively failed to protect their lands from a wildling invasion. But perhaps he might absorb them into his host.

The way Jon organised it, even if Stannis and Bolton destroy each other, every way-castle on the Wall will be manned, and the Gift is settled with a reserve force providing supply to the Wall (tied by blood and by necessity to the Watch) in whatever way they are able.

Jon can hope the Karhold will be an ally and support for the Watch as well (unless Arnolf has some hidden strength we are not aware of, or have been overtaken by Euron or something).

Also, importantly, Jon has contracted for the Iron Bank to supply the Watch until Spring.  I am not sure how reliable this route of supply will prove to be. When the sea freezes over to the White Knife, when the crops of the summerlands fail and blacken with frost, when the death of an onion-soup sipping insurance broker culminates in the collapse of Braavosi shipping trade, maybe even the too-big-to-fail Iron Bank will collapse.

But if none of these catastrophes hit the Braavosi supply lines, or not insurmountably, the Watch has a source of food and munitions and possibly even recruits through the Winter, superior to any support they were getting from the Westerosi lords, and independent of them. Tywin could threaten never to send another man to the Wall, and that would do it. If Cersei makes that threat, it will do nothing.

Stannis is also getting the backing of the Bank of Braavos. That's not on Jon Snow, but Cersei. Still, it suits the Iron Bank that their client at the Wall is independent of the Lannister interest.

If we look at what is happening in the South, Euron is harrying the West coast, and the Golden Company have landed in the Stormlands and the Stepstones where the Royal Fleet might be fighting for or against them, for the Iron Throne or for Aurane the pirate. Jaime has pacified the Riverlands more or less, and Mooten holds the Northern Crownlands in alligence with Tarly. Loras has Dragonstone. Petyr Baelish has the Vale, and is gathering an army. Bolton has a shakey hold on the North. 

Cersei is oblivious to the threat posed by the Golden Company, and none of her advisors really comprehend it either. Even in Oldtown, where the ferocity and reach of Euron's attacks have been cause for consternation, they still think of the Ironborn as reavers and raiders, have no idea of Euron setting himself up on the Iron throne and holding the green lands of Westeros, or the Golden Company attacking with the same ultimate goal for Aegon.  If they had, they would be able to defend against that preposterous vision easily enough. But as it is, they are destined to be cut to ribbons before they realize that Euron and Aegon are not just pirates seeking plunder along the coast.

The alliance between Cersei's South and Bolton's North no longer has fuel to feed it. Ramsey has his name but not his bride, Roose has his title, Winterfell, his dubious allies. They can't expect more from Cersei.

Like Petyr with his tapestries, and the Eyrie, and the title to Harrenhal, Cersei will let them make their own luck. Which suits them both. So independent warlords in the North and East for Cersei, while her dependant warlords of Tyrell and Tarly and Martell are occupied with defending their own lands, bickering about the Rosby inheritance, and displacing her from power.

When Tywin was alive, the Lannisters were going to win the war, and have the lesuire to punish anyone who had mocked their powers, defamed them, or associated with anyone who had.

Bowen Marsh was comparatively far sighted, to advise that they display their support for the Lannisters in their choice of Lord Commander. That is, compared to Othell, who noticed Stannis had flooded Eastwatch and Castle Black with battle-ready troops and would have less respect for the neutrality of the Night's Watch if they made Lord Slynt commander to please the Lannisters- note too, @TsarGrey,  Bowen is already aware Lord Tywin is dead, killed by his own son. Bowen is hoping to trade the indepenence of the watch to make a secret pact with a dead man, on the offchance his living relations choose to acknowledge it.

Bowen Marsh never knew Tywin intended to make common cause with Mance and flood the North with wildlings and Ironborn the better to secure the lands below the Neck. Bowen Marsh did not forsee how Euron's rise, Aegon's challenge, and the strategem of the Iron Bank or the uncertainty over the rule of the Vale would distract the Lannisters from the plight of the Watch.

Jon Snow did not know or foresee these things either, but he knew what he did would strengthen the Watch, and he knew what Bowen Marsh proposed would weaken it. 

[Ivan Tsarevich]

21 minutes ago, Walda said:

Bowen is already aware Lord Tywin is dead, killed by his own son.

How widespread this knowledge is, and when and how is it shown? Could you provide a quote?

[Moiraine Sedai]

The best man was Quorin Halfhand but he was already dead.  Bowen Marsh is my first choice.  Alliser Thorne is the second best.

[The Young Maester]

13 hours ago, King17 said:

Like I said even Jon was worried about tywin

Jon and Sam speculated whether Tywin might disapprove of their actions. End of the day the only way Tywin would March an army into the gift its if the watch declared for stannis and invaded the north.

The watch is seen as beggars, they’ll suck off anyone that comes to them first.

13 hours ago, King17 said:

and even if stannis does manage to kill bolton his chances of a ultimate  victory are still slim.

If stannis kills the Boltons than Lannister rule in the north will crumble faster than the riverlords did after the red wedding. It would be 2x faster if Manderly proceeds to bring out rickon stark.

1 hour ago, King17 said:

The realm for the most part believes Tommen is roberts son. The riverlands joined robb because the lannisters attacked them not because of the incest. 

During a succession war both parties are considered equal and only one is declared a failed pretender once he is crushed.

Edward III is a good example. After coordinating a proxy war in Brittany, he wanted to declare war on the king of France. However because he was technically a subject of the king of France (due to edwards holdings in Gascony), he couldn’t just raise arms against the french king. That is because as his subject Edward would be considered a rebel and oathbreaker. The best way around this was to declare himself king of France (arguably Edward had a stronger claim to the french throne), and name the french king a pretender and false. This way Edward found way to make himself equal to the french king by claiming his holding.

Succession struggle between stannis and Tommen is no different. As a pretender and claimant stannis is equal to tommen and no longer his subject. This is until he is either dead, or relinquishes his claim to the throne.

[King17]

1 hour ago, Walda said:

True.

But does Bowen Marsh know which side will be the winning one?

And will that side be the side that wins in the North?

Not much point the Black Brothers demonstrating their loyalty to the Iron Throne and receiving 100 felons and spades, while King Euron rules the North and the wildlings breach the Wall in thousands to escape White Walkers.

Which is exactly the course Tywin Lannister foresaw for the North, only he doesn't believe in White Walkers and instead thought to form an alliance with Mance against the Watch, and had no intention of giving the Watch so many men, or so much steel.

And, as Othel Yarwyck pointed out, Stannis is right there, right now, with an army that is considerably larger and stronger than the Watch. He has done the Lord Commander the courtesy of informing him of his plans to take the Nightfort as his seat during the war, repopulate the Gift, and attack the Dreadfort. He didn't have to. If the Lord Commander had not adopted a co-operative attitude he would simply have ignored him, needs must.

Jon Snow has managed to build the strength of the Watch, retain ownership of the way-castles of the Wall, and control of all of them bar the Nightfort. He has ensured the Gift will not become the large estates of Southron lords, but will be small holding of free settlers (ensuring optimal economic development of the area in the short term -bleak as that may be with winter breathing down their necks) with similar culture (and blood ties to) the Northern clans that will be their neighbours (quarrelsome as they are likely to be).

Most importantly, those small claims are likely to be held and defended, all the way along the Wall, all the way through the gift, by people who know how to survive and fight in a Northern winter. And all those people are currently loyal-ish to Stannis and the Night's Watch, who happen to be manning the Wall. All of whom are committed to preserving the realms of men, regardless who sits the Iron throne or Seastone chair. 

The Watch is now in a much stronger position than it was when Jeor Mormont had command. 

Now consider what Bowen Marsh envisioned. Janos Slynt commander of the Night's Watch.A system of promotion by privilege, with titled cronies like Ser Aliser Thorne and Ser Glendon Hewett dispensing rough justice at any hint of difference, weakness, or innovation. All the gates to the North are firmly sealed, the Watch preserve their men and stores by bunkering down, a bit over two hundred men in each of the the three manned waycastles, their only knowledge of what happens north of the Wall being what patrols can see from the top of it.

  Of course, tens of thousands of wildlings are attempting to climb the wall and thousands are roaming or settling in the Gift without the Black Brothers' leave or knowledge. For every one the patrols catch, there are a dozen they don't. For every ladder they cut down there are three put up. For every patrol that makes it back whole, another had men lost in the fighting, or that never returned to tell the tale. Patrols become the duty of the least-favoured half-rationed men, led by commanders Slynt and company would rather be without. The Watch shrink back and defend their own, conserve their resources for the long winter.

The defence of the Gift would be divided between Stannis and the neighbouring Northern clans. Wildlings would control the Gift and all the Wall bar Castle Black, Eastwatch, and the Shadow Tower. But Stannis would be weaker, the Wildlings stronger, the Mountain Clans would be openly at war against both of them. Stannis would still fight the Ironborn, but without the introductions and local guides Jon Snow provided him, this would have won him little or no local support from the Northerners. 

As it is, the winter snows his army are so ill prepared for could kill Stannis yet. Or the Bolton army gathered at Winterfell. But Stannis is in a stronger situation than he would have been if he had marched down the Kingsroad for the Dreadfort as Bowen Marsh would have let him. The actions of his army and the clansmen together against the Ironborn have been more effective for the defense of the North, and less bloody, than they would have been if Stannis and the locals had been fighting each other as well.

If Slynt held Castle Black, Alys would have been captured by Cregan and imprisoned in the Karhold. The Karhold's green boys and greybeards would be fighting off wildling raiders from the North while attempting to keep faith with the Dreadfort in the South. In the end, the Flayed Men would take over their lands, and those of the Umbers, depleted by their battles with Stannis and the Wildlings.

None of this would give any joy to Cersei. Or any concern, while they were destroying Stannis and each other. 

Meanwhile at the wall, low rations, cabin fever, fear of being picked off by wildlings or freezing on watch take their inevitable toll in the inequitable and unjust climate Slynt creates as commander. Of course with the likes of Sweet Donnel around, there will be a stewards mutiny, Slynt scalped, Bowen's secert larders raided. While the food lasts, perhaps Three Finger Hobb rules briefly as King in Castle Black.

Cersei would do nothing to save them or stop them, as long as they stay in the North. She will refer the matter to Bolton, assuming he has not been assassinated (which I do, as the parallels between the mystery murders at Winterfell under Bolton, and the mystery murders at Winterfell under Theon make me suspect they are orchestrated by Roose, and just another jolly jape for Ramsey).

He might see the value of taking a castle or the entire wall as his own fortress against any remaining Umber, Karstark or Manderly rebels sheltering in the far North. If anyone in the Lannister loop could bother collaborating with Mance it would be Roose (although Mance might not care for the way he goes about it - I notice that none of Rooses allies feel they are getting more than they give). I doubt any Northerner would see much value in keeping the Night's Watch that had comprehensively failed to protect their lands from a wildling invasion. But perhaps he might absorb them into his host.

The way Jon organised it, even if Stannis and Bolton destroy each other, every way-castle on the Wall will be manned, and the Gift is settled with a reserve force providing supply to the Wall (tied by blood and by necessity to the Watch) in whatever way they are able.

Jon can hope the Karhold will be an ally and support for the Watch as well (unless Arnolf has some hidden strength we are not aware of, or have been overtaken by Euron or something).

Also, importantly, Jon has contracted for the Iron Bank to supply the Watch until Spring.  I am not sure how reliable this route of supply will prove to be. When the sea freezes over to the White Knife, when the crops of the summerlands fail and blacken with frost, when the death of an onion-soup sipping insurance broker culminates in the collapse of Braavosi shipping trade, maybe even the too-big-to-fail Iron Bank will collapse.

But if none of these catastrophes hit the Braavosi supply lines, or not insurmountably, the Watch has a source of food and munitions and possibly even recruits through the Winter, superior to any support they were getting from the Westerosi lords, and independent of them. Tywin could threaten never to send another man to the Wall, and that would do it. If Cersei makes that threat, it will do nothing.

Stannis is also getting the backing of the Bank of Braavos. That's not on Jon Snow, but Cersei. Still, it suits the Iron Bank that their client at the Wall is independent of the Lannister interest.

If we look at what is happening in the South, Euron is harrying the West coast, and the Golden Company have landed in the Stormlands and the Stepstones where the Royal Fleet might be fighting for or against them, for the Iron Throne or for Aurane the pirate. Jaime has pacified the Riverlands more or less, and Mooten holds the Northern Crownlands in alligence with Tarly. Loras has Dragonstone. Petyr Baelish has the Vale, and is gathering an army. Bolton has a shakey hold on the North. 

Cersei is oblivious to the threat posed by the Golden Company, and none of her advisors really comprehend it either. Even in Oldtown, where the ferocity and reach of Euron's attacks have been cause for consternation, they still think of the Ironborn as reavers and raiders, have no idea of Euron setting himself up on the Iron throne and holding the green lands of Westeros, or the Golden Company attacking with the same ultimate goal for Aegon.  If they had, they would be able to defend against that preposterous vision easily enough. But as it is, they are destined to be cut to ribbons before they realize that Euron and Aegon are not just pirates seeking plunder along the coast.

The alliance between Cersei's South and Bolton's North no longer has fuel to feed it. Ramsey has his name but not his bride, Roose has his title, Winterfell, his dubious allies. They can't expect more from Cersei.

Like Petyr with his tapestries, and the Eyrie, and the title to Harrenhal, Cersei will let them make their own luck. Which suits them both. So independent warlords in the North and East for Cersei, while her dependant warlords of Tyrell and Tarly and Martell are occupied with defending their own lands, bickering about the Rosby inheritance, and displacing her from power.

When Tywin was alive, the Lannisters were going to win the war, and have the lesuire to punish anyone who had mocked their powers, defamed them, or associated with anyone who had.

Bowen Marsh was comparatively far sighted, to advise that they display their support for the Lannisters in their choice of Lord Commander. That is, compared to Othell, who noticed Stannis had flooded Eastwatch and Castle Black with battle-ready troops and would have less respect for the neutrality of the Night's Watch if they made Lord Slynt commander to please the Lannisters- note too, @TsarGrey,  Bowen is already aware Lord Tywin is dead, killed by his own son. Bowen is hoping to trade the indepenence of the watch to make a secret pact with a dead man, on the offchance his living relations choose to acknowledge it.

Bowen Marsh never knew Tywin intended to make common cause with Mance and flood the North with wildlings and Ironborn the better to secure the lands below the Neck. Bowen Marsh did not forsee how Euron's rise, Aegon's challenge, and the strategem of the Iron Bank or the uncertainty over the rule of the Vale would distract the Lannisters from the plight of the Watch.

Jon Snow did not know or foresee these things either, but he knew what he did would strengthen the Watch, and he knew what Bowen Marsh proposed would weaken it. 

stannis has 5000 men he isn't the winning side.

[King17]

10 minutes ago, The Young Maester said:

Jon and Sam speculated whether Tywin might disapprove of their actions. End of the day the only way Tywin would March an army into the gift its if the watch declared for stannis and invaded the north.

The watch is seen as beggars, they’ll suck off anyone that comes to them first.

If stannis kills the Boltons than Lannister rule in the north will crumble faster than the riverlords did after the red wedding. It would be 2x faster if Manderly proceeds to bring out rickon stark.

During a succession war both parties are considered equal and only one is declared a failed pretender once he is crushed.

Edward III is a good example. After coordinating a proxy war in Brittany, he wanted to declare war on the king of France. However because he was technically a subject of the king of France (due to edwards holdings in Gascony), he couldn’t just raise arms against the french king. That is because as his subject Edward would be considered a rebel and oathbreaker. The best way around this was to declare himself king of France (arguably Edward had a stronger claim to the french throne), and name the french king a pretender and false. This way Edward found way to make himself equal to the french king by claiming his holding.

Succession struggle between stannis and Tommen is no different. As a pretender and claimant stannis is equal to tommen and no longer his subject. This is until he is either dead, or relinquishes his claim to the throne.

the iron throne has northern hostages even if Stannis kills Bolton he could only rally half the north at best and that isn't enough to stop the tyrells,lannisters,and the captured riverlands.

[BlackLightning]

1 hour ago, Walda said:

True.

But does Bowen Marsh know which side will be the winning one?

And will that side be the side that wins in the North?

Not much point the Black Brothers demonstrating their loyalty to the Iron Throne and receiving 100 felons and spades, while King Euron rules the North and the wildlings breach the Wall in thousands to escape White Walkers.

Which is exactly the course Tywin Lannister foresaw for the North, only he doesn't believe in White Walkers and instead thought to form an alliance with Mance against the Watch, and had no intention of giving the Watch so many men, or so much steel.

And, as Othel Yarwyck pointed out, Stannis is right there, right now, with an army that is considerably larger and stronger than the Watch. He has done the Lord Commander the courtesy of informing him of his plans to take the Nightfort as his seat during the war, repopulate the Gift, and attack the Dreadfort. He didn't have to. If the Lord Commander had not adopted a co-operative attitude he would simply have ignored him, needs must.

Jon Snow has managed to build the strength of the Watch, retain ownership of the way-castles of the Wall, and control of all of them bar the Nightfort. He has ensured the Gift will not become the large estates of Southron lords, but will be small holding of free settlers (ensuring optimal economic development of the area in the short term -bleak as that may be with winter breathing down their necks) with similar culture (and blood ties to) the Northern clans that will be their neighbours (quarrelsome as they are likely to be).

Most importantly, those small claims are likely to be held and defended, all the way along the Wall, all the way through the gift, by people who know how to survive and fight in a Northern winter. And all those people are currently loyal-ish to Stannis and the Night's Watch, who happen to be manning the Wall. All of whom are committed to preserving the realms of men, regardless who sits the Iron throne or Seastone chair. 

The Watch is now in a much stronger position than it was when Jeor Mormont had command. 

Now consider what Bowen Marsh envisioned. Janos Slynt commander of the Night's Watch.A system of promotion by privilege, with titled cronies like Ser Aliser Thorne and Ser Glendon Hewett dispensing rough justice at any hint of difference, weakness, or innovation. All the gates to the North are firmly sealed, the Watch preserve their men and stores by bunkering down, a bit over two hundred men in each of the the three manned waycastles, their only knowledge of what happens north of the Wall being what patrols can see from the top of it.

  Of course, tens of thousands of wildlings are attempting to climb the wall and thousands are roaming or settling in the Gift without the Black Brothers' leave or knowledge. For every one the patrols catch, there are a dozen they don't. For every ladder they cut down there are three put up. For every patrol that makes it back whole, another had men lost in the fighting, or that never returned to tell the tale. Patrols become the duty of the least-favoured half-rationed men, led by commanders Slynt and company would rather be without. The Watch shrink back and defend their own, conserve their resources for the long winter.

The defence of the Gift would be divided between Stannis and the neighbouring Northern clans. Wildlings would control the Gift and all the Wall bar Castle Black, Eastwatch, and the Shadow Tower. But Stannis would be weaker, the Wildlings stronger, the Mountain Clans would be openly at war against both of them. Stannis would still fight the Ironborn, but without the introductions and local guides Jon Snow provided him, this would have won him little or no local support from the Northerners. 

As it is, the winter snows his army are so ill prepared for could kill Stannis yet. Or the Bolton army gathered at Winterfell. But Stannis is in a stronger situation than he would have been if he had marched down the Kingsroad for the Dreadfort as Bowen Marsh would have let him. The actions of his army and the clansmen together against the Ironborn have been more effective for the defense of the North, and less bloody, than they would have been if Stannis and the locals had been fighting each other as well.

If Slynt held Castle Black, Alys would have been captured by Cregan and imprisoned in the Karhold. The Karhold's green boys and greybeards would be fighting off wildling raiders from the North while attempting to keep faith with the Dreadfort in the South. In the end, the Flayed Men would take over their lands, and those of the Umbers, depleted by their battles with Stannis and the Wildlings.

None of this would give any joy to Cersei. Or any concern, while they were destroying Stannis and each other. 

Meanwhile at the wall, low rations, cabin fever, fear of being picked off by wildlings or freezing on watch take their inevitable toll in the inequitable and unjust climate Slynt creates as commander. Of course with the likes of Sweet Donnel around, there will be a stewards mutiny, Slynt scalped, Bowen's secert larders raided. While the food lasts, perhaps Three Finger Hobb rules briefly as King in Castle Black.

Cersei would do nothing to save them or stop them, as long as they stay in the North. She will refer the matter to Bolton, assuming he has not been assassinated (which I do, as the parallels between the mystery murders at Winterfell under Bolton, and the mystery murders at Winterfell under Theon make me suspect they are orchestrated by Roose, and just another jolly jape for Ramsey).

He might see the value of taking a castle or the entire wall as his own fortress against any remaining Umber, Karstark or Manderly rebels sheltering in the far North. If anyone in the Lannister loop could bother collaborating with Mance it would be Roose (although Mance might not care for the way he goes about it - I notice that none of Rooses allies feel they are getting more than they give). I doubt any Northerner would see much value in keeping the Night's Watch that had comprehensively failed to protect their lands from a wildling invasion. But perhaps he might absorb them into his host.

The way Jon organised it, even if Stannis and Bolton destroy each other, every way-castle on the Wall will be manned, and the Gift is settled with a reserve force providing supply to the Wall (tied by blood and by necessity to the Watch) in whatever way they are able.

Jon can hope the Karhold will be an ally and support for the Watch as well (unless Arnolf has some hidden strength we are not aware of, or have been overtaken by Euron or something).

Also, importantly, Jon has contracted for the Iron Bank to supply the Watch until Spring.  I am not sure how reliable this route of supply will prove to be. When the sea freezes over to the White Knife, when the crops of the summerlands fail and blacken with frost, when the death of an onion-soup sipping insurance broker culminates in the collapse of Braavosi shipping trade, maybe even the too-big-to-fail Iron Bank will collapse.

But if none of these catastrophes hit the Braavosi supply lines, or not insurmountably, the Watch has a source of food and munitions and possibly even recruits through the Winter, superior to any support they were getting from the Westerosi lords, and independent of them. Tywin could threaten never to send another man to the Wall, and that would do it. If Cersei makes that threat, it will do nothing.

Stannis is also getting the backing of the Bank of Braavos. That's not on Jon Snow, but Cersei. Still, it suits the Iron Bank that their client at the Wall is independent of the Lannister interest.

If we look at what is happening in the South, Euron is harrying the West coast, and the Golden Company have landed in the Stormlands and the Stepstones where the Royal Fleet might be fighting for or against them, for the Iron Throne or for Aurane the pirate. Jaime has pacified the Riverlands more or less, and Mooten holds the Northern Crownlands in alligence with Tarly. Loras has Dragonstone. Petyr Baelish has the Vale, and is gathering an army. Bolton has a shakey hold on the North. 

Cersei is oblivious to the threat posed by the Golden Company, and none of her advisors really comprehend it either. Even in Oldtown, where the ferocity and reach of Euron's attacks have been cause for consternation, they still think of the Ironborn as reavers and raiders, have no idea of Euron setting himself up on the Iron throne and holding the green lands of Westeros, or the Golden Company attacking with the same ultimate goal for Aegon.  If they had, they would be able to defend against that preposterous vision easily enough. But as it is, they are destined to be cut to ribbons before they realize that Euron and Aegon are not just pirates seeking plunder along the coast.

The alliance between Cersei's South and Bolton's North no longer has fuel to feed it. Ramsey has his name but not his bride, Roose has his title, Winterfell, his dubious allies. They can't expect more from Cersei.

Like Petyr with his tapestries, and the Eyrie, and the title to Harrenhal, Cersei will let them make their own luck. Which suits them both. So independent warlords in the North and East for Cersei, while her dependant warlords of Tyrell and Tarly and Martell are occupied with defending their own lands, bickering about the Rosby inheritance, and displacing her from power.

When Tywin was alive, the Lannisters were going to win the war, and have the lesuire to punish anyone who had mocked their powers, defamed them, or associated with anyone who had.

Bowen Marsh was comparatively far sighted, to advise that they display their support for the Lannisters in their choice of Lord Commander. That is, compared to Othell, who noticed Stannis had flooded Eastwatch and Castle Black with battle-ready troops and would have less respect for the neutrality of the Night's Watch if they made Lord Slynt commander to please the Lannisters- note too, @TsarGrey,  Bowen is already aware Lord Tywin is dead, killed by his own son. Bowen is hoping to trade the indepenence of the watch to make a secret pact with a dead man, on the offchance his living relations choose to acknowledge it.

Bowen Marsh never knew Tywin intended to make common cause with Mance and flood the North with wildlings and Ironborn the better to secure the lands below the Neck. Bowen Marsh did not forsee how Euron's rise, Aegon's challenge, and the strategem of the Iron Bank or the uncertainty over the rule of the Vale would distract the Lannisters from the plight of the Watch.

Jon Snow did not know or foresee these things either, but he knew what he did would strengthen the Watch, and he knew what Bowen Marsh proposed would weaken it. 

I love this post.

@Moiraine Sedai needs to give it another read. Bowen Marsh would be a horrible choice as would Alliser Thorne.

11 minutes ago, The Young Maester said:

The watch is seen as beggars, they’ll suck off anyone that comes to them first.

 

This is the one of most colorful uses of metaphor I have seen in the past two years.

And it's so accurate. I wish I could give rep points.

4 minutes ago, King17 said:

stannis has 5000 men he isn't the winning side.

Yes.

But that's 5,000 men inside your castle gates...versus 80,000 men who are 2,000 miles away

A bird in the hand is worth two in the bush.

Besides, whatever happened to old fashioned gratitude. Stannis had just saved the Night's Watch from complete annihilation when the Iron Throne, Highgarden and the Dreadfort couldn't be half-assed to send 20 men.

[saltedmalted]

27 minutes ago, BlackLightning said:

But that's 5,000 men inside your castle gates

And 5,000 men are beyond the Night Watch's ability to defend against. To think about the long-term the Watch must cope with the short term issues caused by Stannis' arrival.

49 minutes ago, The Young Maester said:

The best way around this was to declare himself king of France (arguably Edward had a stronger claim to the french throne)

Offtopic, but Edward III's claim was a load of bullshit.

Historians don't believe gaining the crown was even his aim in the beginning, but after losing badly the KoF was in no position to negotiate.

39 minutes ago, King17 said:

even if Stannis kills Bolton he could only rally half the north at best

Once Stannis kills Bolton Lanister influence would vanish over-night. Stannis will not be able to succesfully use the North to launch his conquest of the rest of Westeros but he would have done enough to break the deadlock.

40 minutes ago, King17 said:

the iron throne has northern hostages

Hostages will not keep the peace forever. By ADwD things have already changed so drastically that the Lannister + Bolton leverage has dropped to nothing.

 

George didn't bother to mention it: What happened to all the Westerlander prisoners taken by the Riverlords? I doubt most of them were in Harrenhal.

One would expect the Blackfish to start chopping heads off as soon as he heard of the RW.

[CamiloRP]

2 hours ago, King17 said:

Nobody believes the bastard story and at the moment the lannisters control about 5 of the 7 kingdoms I think it's clear whose side is winning and who is considered legitimate.

False. I already pointed out how likely every kingdom but the Westerlands and the Iron Islands (who don't care either way) believe he's a bastard. Even Kingslanders do. If you wanna argue, then argue, but repeating the same thing over and over without any actual proof is just wasting my time and yours.

 

2 hours ago, King17 said:

Tywin has northern hostages and can afford to piss off the north stannis cannot.

Look at how much the northerners hostages helped him. The Umebrs and the Manderlys are working against him any way, he has no power. And he intends for his grandson to rule the North eventually, that would be way harder if the North thinks of the Lannisters a the people who destroyed the NW.

Try for once arguing against what I said instead of repeating the same things over and over and ignoring most of my points.

[saltedmalted]

3 minutes ago, CamiloRP said:

Look at how much the northerners hostages helped him. The Umebrs and the Manderlys are working against him any way, he has no power.

They have hostages to cow a few houses but not enough of them. When Bolton gets defeated the Lannisters would have to either kill the hostages or let the North out of their control. Neither scenario is good for Tommen Waters.

[King17]

8 minutes ago, CamiloRP said:

False. I already pointed out how likely every kingdom but the Westerlands and the Iron Islands (who don't care either way) believe he's a bastard. Even Kingslanders do. If you wanna argue, then argue, but repeating the same thing over and over without any actual proof is just wasting my time and yours.

 

Look at how much the northerners hostages helped him. The Umebrs and the Manderlys are working against him any way, he has no power. And he intends for his grandson to rule the North eventually, that would be way harder if the North thinks of the Lannisters a the people who destroyed the NW.

Try for once arguing against what I said instead of repeating the same things over and over and ignoring most of my points.

Only half the north is working with stannis buddy he only has 5000 men as for manderly he just got his son back as you will recall. 

As far as Tommen being roberts son bowen marsh points out many view him as roberts son and he likely isn't wrong.

[King17]

6 minutes ago, saltedmalted said:

They have hostages to cow a few houses but not enough of them. When Bolton gets defeated the Lannisters would have to either kill the hostages or let the North out of their control. Neither scenario is good for Tommen Waters.

That's not true it will cow enough houses to prevent stannis from having a serious army to challenge the lannisters.

[saltedmalted]

Just now, King17 said:

That's not true it will cow enough houses to prevent stannis from having a serious army to challenge the lannisters.

Did you not read what I said? Stannis will not be able to take the fight to the Lannisters.

He would have destroyed the Boltons and the Lannister's paper thin control over the North.

[The Young Maester]

53 minutes ago, King17 said:

the iron throne has northern hostages even if Stannis kills Bolton he could only rally half the north at best and that isn't enough to stop the tyrells,lannisters,and the captured riverlands.

The only highborn hostages we know of are the greatjon and Harrison karstark. The rest were given the mercy of death by the Freys.

It seems that the tyrells and lannisters have themselves in a sticky situation with foreign invasions from both sides of the continent. All the while the riverlands is a mess of bandits and disgruntled lords.

13 minutes ago, saltedmalted said:

Offtopic, but Edward III's claim was a load of bullshit.

Eh it was kinda strong. His mother was princess Isabella, daughter of Philip iv. Whilst the Valois king was some distant cousin of the capets. Obviously the law of Salic prohibited anyone of the female line, from claiming the throne.

18 minutes ago, saltedmalted said:

Historians don't believe gaining the crown was even his aim in the beginning, but after losing badly the KoF was in no position to negotiate.

Nah it never was, we know this because upon the death of the Edwards uncle King Charles IV. Edward didn’t bother to contest the ascent of the Valois cousin. Also because after the battle of crecy Edward didnt brother taking the throne, instead he sieged down Calais, and claimed some lands in Gascony and other places I cant remember.

Declaring a war for the throne was just a convenience for Edward iii. He was after all, trying to get that good old french land.

 

[King17]

3 minutes ago, saltedmalted said:

Did you not read what I said? Stannis will not be able to take the fight to the Lannisters.

He would have destroyed the Boltons and the Lannister's paper thin control over the North.

Killing bolton's doesn't free northern hostages even if stannis wins winter fell it doesn't do him much good.

[King17]

1 minute ago, The Young Maester said:

The only highborn hostages we know of are the greatjon and Harrison karstark. The rest were given the mercy of death by the Freys.

It seems that the tyrells and lannisters have themselves in a sticky situation with foreign invasions from both sides of the continent. All the while the riverlands is a mess of bandits and disgruntled lords.

Eh it was kinda strong. His mother was princess Isabella, daughter of Philip iv. Whilst the Valois king was some distant cousin of the capets. Obviously the law of Salic prohibited anyone of the female line, from claiming the throne.

Nah it never was, we know this because upon the death of the Edwards uncle King Charles IV. Edward didn’t bother to contest the ascent of the Valois cousin. Also because after the battle of crecy Edward didnt brother taking the throne, instead he sieged down Calais, and claimed some lands in Gascony and other places I cant remember.

Declaring a war for the throne was just a convenience for Edward iii. He was after all, trying to get that good old french land.

 

And yet despite all that the chance of a stannis victory are still close to zero.

[saltedmalted]

3 minutes ago, King17 said:

Killing bolton's doesn't free northern hostages even if stannis wins winter fell it doesn't do him much good.

it doesn't help his greater goal but it helps the North enormously. With the Boltons gone the Northmen will stop caring what KL says.

Executing Northern hostages will not bring Bolton back.

3 minutes ago, King17 said:

And yet despite all that the chance of a stannis victory are still close to zero.

Tell that to GRRM, not us. 

[CamiloRP]

20 minutes ago, King17 said:

Only half the north is working with stannis buddy he only has 5000 men as for manderly he just got his son back as you will recall. 

Yep, and how much of the North is working with Tywin? Because he needs most of it to accept him, and right know, only the Bolton's are on his side, maybe the Dustin's/Rysewels, but the rest are not on his side.

 

Quote

As far as Tommen being roberts son bowen marsh points out many view him as roberts son and he likely isn't wrong.

The Tyrells know he's not, likely their bannermen do too.

The Northerners, the Valemen, Stormlands, Crownlanders, Dornish, and Riverlanders think he's not legitimate.