Mrstrategy Posted February 18, 2021 Share Posted February 18, 2021 would the Bolton/Frey and their bannermen betray Robb and house Stark if winterfell had not been captured/Sacked by ironborn/Ramsay and if so how and when would they try betray Robb with winterfell still under the rule of house Stark? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frenin Posted February 19, 2021 Share Posted February 19, 2021 Unlikely, iirc we're told he did once the Karstarks and the Freys deserted him. Without the Fall of Winterfell however, we're reading a different book with different stakes. With two heirs alive, Sansa's value as Robb's heir decreases markedly and she's unlikely to be married off to anyone soon, Robb doesn't lose the Freys because no grief sex with Jeyne, Rickard Karstark doesn't die by Robb's hand, Jaime remains in Riverrun so no Red Wedding either and while the situation in the North is bad, it is not so untenable that Robb must march back home to clean his house. All in all, thanks Theon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
James Steller Posted February 19, 2021 Share Posted February 19, 2021 26 minutes ago, frenin said: All in all, thanks Theon. Technically, you can also thank Robb for (A) thinking that Balon Greyjoy would ever be a faithful ally, and (B) sending Theon to him and thus eliminating all hostage incentives. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frenin Posted February 19, 2021 Share Posted February 19, 2021 34 minutes ago, James Steller said: Technically, you can also thank Robb for (A) thinking that Balon Greyjoy would ever be a faithful ally, and (B) sending Theon to him and thus eliminating all hostage incentives. Yet even then, the Ironborn are force that the North can deal with... Until Winterfell falls. Theon's capture of Winterfell is right there with Renly's death, the Blackwater and Tywin's death as the greatest turning points in the war of the kings. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Minsc Posted February 19, 2021 Share Posted February 19, 2021 Roose and Walder might still try to weasel away once the Tyrells join the Lannisters. However, something as big as the Red Wedding is unlikely when Robb has heirs still alive that the North could rally around. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Universal Sword Donor Posted February 19, 2021 Share Posted February 19, 2021 39 minutes ago, Minsc said: Roose and Walder might still try to weasel away once the Tyrells join the Lannisters. However, something as big as the Red Wedding is unlikely when Robb has heirs still alive that the North could rally around. This basically. GRRM has said that Walder and Roose kept their options open / looking for a way out. It wouldn't surprise me if Walder closed up the keep and made Robb march south to the trident to cross near HH. Would have as good as killed the northern army to try Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
James Steller Posted February 19, 2021 Share Posted February 19, 2021 3 hours ago, frenin said: Yet even then, the Ironborn are force that the North can deal with... Until Winterfell falls. Theon's capture of Winterfell is right there with Renly's death, the Blackwater and Tywin's death as the greatest turning points in the war of the kings. Are you agreeing with me or arguing with me? Genuine question, I don't follow your meaning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jay21 Posted February 19, 2021 Share Posted February 19, 2021 I can't help but wonder if betraying the Starks when they're weak is some sort of existential imperative for house Bolton. Why hasn't 1 house ever managed to finish the other off? What sort of promises are made when they make peace? Seems like a 'mornin', Sam', 'mornin', Ralph' relationship to me. I guess to answer your question I suspect that Roose had his eye open for the opportunity from the moment Rickard and Brandon were wiped out by Aerys and would have pounced on Ned if he had presented the opportunity. I wonder what options Roose explored during the Greyjoy Rebellion. I think the Boltons would have remained ostensibly loyal to Robb as long as Robb looked like he would come out on top, but the moment he faltered Roose would have gone wolf hunting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Canon Claude Posted February 19, 2021 Share Posted February 19, 2021 2 hours ago, Jay21 said: I can't help but wonder if betraying the Starks when they're weak is some sort of existential imperative for house Bolton. Why hasn't 1 house ever managed to finish the other off? Presumably the Boltons are firmly entrenched. They are one of the strongest houses in the North, the Dreadfort withheld two YEARS of siege, and we can only assume that they have made their share of marriage alliances over the years. You might as well ask why the Brackens and Blackwoods never finished one another off, or why everyone else didn’t collectively kill them both with a loud chorus of “FUCK this feud, already!” Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jay21 Posted February 19, 2021 Share Posted February 19, 2021 50 minutes ago, Canon Claude said: Presumably the Boltons are firmly entrenched. They are one of the strongest houses in the North, the Dreadfort withheld two YEARS of siege, and we can only assume that they have made their share of marriage alliances over the years. You might as well ask why the Brackens and Blackwoods never finished one another off, or why everyone else didn’t collectively kill them both with a loud chorus of “FUCK this feud, already!” That's an interesting example and I wonder how tightly that glove fits. I firmly believe that the Brackens and Blackwoods are compelled. Maybe like the Riverlands' other Stoneheart that old dead tree is bent on vengeance, but I don't believe for an instant that some of the magic that we never see isn't expressed in the feud between Blackwood and Bracken. of course I could be reading too much into their relationship - I blame the 10 year wait for Winter if that's the case, but if I'm not and the Riverlands' most antagonistic neighbors are somehow forced into their perpetual dance of death then is that possibly also the case in the north? Is some instinctual knowledge of this codependence what keeps one faction from finishing off the other? Or are they pushed to a point by supernatural forces and then allowed to return to their regular lives before the fatal blow is struck? One of the elements missing in the North is the continuance of historical conflict that exists in the Blackwood/ Bracken fight. Bolton and Stark both keep the old gods so the invasion of the first men doesn't really fit as the genesis of their struggle. To what extent Bloodraven under his tree and Bittersteel's gilded skull are still engaged in this conflict is difficult to see - the possibility that Bittersteel has any agency left in the world is purely speculation, but these two ghostly sponsors don't have equivalents in the northern struggle. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frenin Posted February 19, 2021 Share Posted February 19, 2021 19 hours ago, James Steller said: Are you agreeing with me or arguing with me? Genuine question, I don't follow your meaning. Agreeing 7 hours ago, Jay21 said: I can't help but wonder if betraying the Starks when they're weak is some sort of existential imperative for house Bolton. Why hasn't 1 house ever managed to finish the other off? What sort of promises are made when they make peace? Seems like a 'mornin', Sam', 'mornin', Ralph' relationship to me. I guess they were valuable enough for the Starks to leave them alive and their last rebellion was 1000-700 years before the current events?? That's a very long time. 7 hours ago, Jay21 said: I guess to answer your question I suspect that Roose had his eye open for the opportunity from the moment Rickard and Brandon were wiped out by Aerys and would have pounced on Ned if he had presented the opportunity. Doubtful, the only moment better than this to backstab the Starks was after the Blackwater. The Targs outnumbered the rebels and the rebels were full of disunion in their own lands, Roose's betrayal might have been crutial. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jay21 Posted February 20, 2021 Share Posted February 20, 2021 3 hours ago, frenin said: Doubtful, the only moment better than this to backstab the Starks was after the Blackwater. The Targs outnumbered the rebels and the rebels were full of disunion in their own lands, Roose's betrayal might have been crutial you really don't think Roose would have turned on Ned? Jamie Lannister disagrees, but Bolton never actually did do it. Whether or not the opportunity presented itself is the question, I guess. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Loose Bolt Posted February 20, 2021 Share Posted February 20, 2021 13 hours ago, Jay21 said: I can't help but wonder if betraying the Starks when they're weak is some sort of existential imperative for house Bolton. Why hasn't 1 house ever managed to finish the other off? What sort of promises are made when they make peace? We know that Boltons had sacked and burned down Winterfell trice. I suspect that when Red Kings Royce II and IV did that they slew all male Starks and made one of their own sons or brothers as new Lord of WF who started to call himself a Stark. After all there had to always be a Stark in WF and so in the long run house Stark continued under new dynasties. Dynasty founded by Royce II might have been wiped out by Royce IV. But in the long run dynasty founded by R IV was victorious and even made (ex) Red Kings as their subjects. So nowadays Starks might have more blood of ancient Red Kings in their veins than Roose. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frenin Posted February 20, 2021 Share Posted February 20, 2021 6 hours ago, Jay21 said: you really don't think Roose would have turned on Ned? Jamie Lannister disagrees, but Bolton never actually did do it. Whether or not the opportunity presented itself is the question, I guess. If he was losing badly?? Yep but if Roose wanted to destroy the Starks right away, joining the Targs did the trick. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jay21 Posted February 20, 2021 Share Posted February 20, 2021 16 minutes ago, frenin said: he was losing badly?? Yep but if Roose wanted to destroy the Starks right away, joining the Targs did the trick. we don't know enough about how that conflict looked from the Bolton perspective. given what Roose says about child heirs, Domereric's age at the time might have been a factor in not risking war with the Starks (unclear if he was even born yet). given that 3 great houses were allied and the lannisters weren't getting involved, perhaps he couldn't be confident enough in the outcome to justify a move. there could be any number of reasons for not betraying their liege, but self interest is a greater factor than loyalty. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frenin Posted February 20, 2021 Share Posted February 20, 2021 13 minutes ago, Jay21 said: we don't know enough about how that conflict looked from the Bolton perspective. given what Roose says about child heirs, Domereric's age at the time might have been a factor in not risking war with the Starks (unclear if he was even born yet). given that 3 great houses were allied and the lannisters weren't getting involved, perhaps he couldn't be confident enough in the outcome to justify a move. there could be any number of reasons for not betraying their liege, but self interest is a greater factor than loyalty. Well we do know the numbers and they didn't look so good for the rebels, another desertion could have been crutial. Bolton is a snake but i don't buy the idea that he was always looking for the weak link. Robb was simply in such position thatit would have been foolish keep supporting him. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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