US Politics: Ted Cruz - A Tale of two Snowflakes

[Mindwalker]

There goes Lucy with the footballs again...

***

- Ooh, Biden appointed 3 people to that postal governing board, two Dems and one voting rights activist.

 

[DMC]

14 minutes ago, Mindwalker said:

Ooh, Biden appointed 3 people to that postal governing board, two Dems and one voting rights activist.

The voting rights activists is also a Democrat.  

[Mindwalker]

Well, all the better!

[Centrist Simon Steele]

If I missed it earlier, my apologies, but did anyone else see this? Extremist plot to destroy capitol

Don't know what to think. Not a mention of the word "terrorism" yet either. Just extremists or militias. 

[Jaxom 1974]

50 minutes ago, Chataya de Fleury said:

Well, yes, we do need the office, but maybe 3 days a week. And definitely not when we are visibly ill. I think going in to the office while sick is going to become a major no-no. 

Perhaps in your profession, maybe in Zabs also.  But the idea that people won't go to work when sick? To many don't have a choice still.  And far too many of them are in professions where they shouldn't be working, but do.  As long as the pay is too low and the coverage the bare minimum, people can get into a bad place if they try to take care of themselves. 

Hell, I'm management and it's still frowned on when I'd consider taking a day off for illness.  I certainly don't like sitting on the 10 weeks of eligible sick time I have, but my boss is generally a terrible person who thinks managers who take sick days are probably faking regardless of the circumstances. 

[Mindwalker]

 

[Altherion]

3 hours ago, Mlle. Zabzie said:

I think part of the problem is that different people mean different things when they say "herd immunity."  Let me be clear that I have thought (since this summer, though the reporting now is like this is somehow a new idea - it's not) that Covid is going to become endemic.  There is always going to be a covid strain floating around.  It's not going to be exactly flu, nor is it going to be smallpox or even measles in terms of vaccination (that is, I don't think it's going to be one and done, nor do I think that it will be a childhood course plus a booster as a 30 year old like measles).  I'm guessing there will be a couple year (maybe as many as 5?) year coverage for most people, but some people will need more frequent boosters?  Anyhow, we are at the point when we need to get as many people vaccinated as possible and normalize vaccination, but to stop dreaming that vaccines will make it go away.   

I think it's too early to say this. Surprising as it is, the mRNA vaccines appear to be about as effective as the measles vaccine and this virus is nowhere near as contagious as measles. Eventually, they will get full FDA approval (rather than just the emergency authorization) and at that point, schools, federal facilities, airlines and all sorts of other institutions and organizations can start demanding that everyone who wants to enter a given space be vaccinated. Some of the people who are currently not getting the vaccine even though they're eligible will change their mind on their own once many people have gotten it with no ill effects and others will grudgingly get it once they're told "No vaccine -- no travel!"

Likewise, nobody knows how long the immunity provided by the vaccine will last. It's definitely at least a few months, but it could be a decade -- there's no way to know for sure without actually waiting to see when large numbers of vaccinated people start getting sick again. A bunch of articles on this topic use the antibody response as a proxy, but this is wrong: the antibody response for everything naturally wanes over time and the immune system has other cells for long-term memory.

What we can say with relative certainty is that if a booster is required, it will not be made in this emergency mode where there's nowhere near enough for everyone and schools and sports arenas are being commandeered as distribution centers. Our government is dysfunctional, but it's not quite that dysfunctional -- there's bipartisan agreement on securing the supply chains and Biden recently issued an executive order to that effect:

Quote

President Biden signed an executive order on Wednesday directing federal agencies to conduct a review of supply chains for critical goods, including pharmaceuticals and large capacity batteries. Specifically, the review will target semiconductors, key minerals and materials, pharmaceuticals and their ingredients, and advanced batteries like the ones used in electric vehicles. 

The pandemic has revealed the United States' reliance on countries like China for supplies such as personal protective equipment.  Mr. Biden held a meeting with Democrats and Republicans Wednesday afternoon on supply chain issues. The president said it's critical that the U.S. make sure supply chains are "secure and reliable." 

...

"The 100-day review will identify near term steps the administration can take, including with Congress, to address vulnerabilities in the supply chains for these critical goods," the fact sheet said.

The order will also order a one-year review of a broader set of supply chains, with a focus on "six key sectors" including the defense industrial base and the public health and biological preparedness industrial base.

 

[S John]

2 hours ago, Chataya de Fleury said:

Well, yes, we do need the office, but maybe 3 days a week. And definitely not when we are visibly ill. I think going in to the office while sick is going to become a major no-no. 

Almost everyone at my office is going back in to physical work at least sometimes. I usually do 2 or 3 days a week. I think longterm it will likely shift into going in 3-4 days per week, with 4 probably being more common than 3... but I’ll take it. I’m already thinking that I will probably try to arrange for Wednesday’s to be my WFH day forever. Have a bit of a nasty commute at the moment and just breaking it up into two 2-day blocks in a typical work week makes a massive difference vs. having to do it 5 days in a row all the time, forever.

[Zorral]

1 hour ago, Centrist Simon Steele said:

If I missed it earlier, my apologies, but did anyone else see this? Extremist plot to destroy capitol

Don't know what to think. Not a mention of the word "terrorism" yet either. Just extremists or militias. 

So two dates terrorist intelligence has to be monitoring -- March 4th, and the State of Union Address, whenever that date will be.

[Kalbear]

Parliamentarian unsurprisingly says $15 minimum wage is out of order in the bill and can't be done via reconciliation. Ah well. 

[GrimTuesday]

15 minutes ago, Karlbear said:

Parliamentarian unsurprisingly says $15 minimum wage is out of order in the bill and can't be done via reconciliation. Ah well. 

The parliamentarian can be overruled, they're just not going to do it.

 

That said, I say put on the floor and make every one of those craven fucks who oppose it vote no.

[Fez]

14 minutes ago, Karlbear said:

Parliamentarian unsurprisingly says $15 minimum wage is out of order in the bill and can't be done via reconciliation. Ah well. 

Arguably for the best, since I'm not convinced all 50 votes were there for the relief bill if it stayed in. Maybe down the road they can cut a deal with Republicans to at least raise the minimum wage bill some; though I doubt they'd go for $10 in exchange for e-verify.

 

Just now, GrimTuesday said:

The parliamentarian can be overruled, they're just not going to do it.

 

That said, I say put on the floor and make every one of those craven fucks who oppose it vote no.

There aren't 50 votes to overrule the parliamentarian, not even close.

[DMC]

8 minutes ago, GrimTuesday said:

The parliamentarian can be overruled, they're just not going to do it.

 

That said, I say put on the floor and make every one of those craven fucks who oppose it vote no.

First of all, of course the parliamentarian can be overruled.  That's not the point, at all.  The point, obviously, is if you start arbitrarily overruling the parliamentarian then there's not much sense in really having reconciliation in the first place, which in turn means there's not much sense in retaining the filibuster.

Second, they can still put a minimum wage bill on the floor.  Schumer won't, because it will just make Manchin and maybe Sinema look bad as well, but they could.  Reconciliation doesn't stop the majority leader from bringing a bill to the floor.

[Fury Resurrected]

17 minutes ago, GrimTuesday said:

The parliamentarian can be overruled, they're just not going to do it.

 

That said, I say put on the floor and make every one of those craven fucks who oppose it vote no.

Many many voters oppose the minimum wage hike, it would be a vote with no consequences.

[Mr. Chatywin et al.]

18 minutes ago, DMC said:

Second, they can still put a minimum wage bill on the floor.  Schumer won't, because it will just make Manchin and maybe Sinema look bad as well, but they could.  Reconciliation doesn't stop the majority leader from bringing a bill to the floor.

I'm not much in the mood for debating, but people should be prepared for a minimum wage increase, just well below what they were hoped for. $12 would be an achievement.

[GrimTuesday]

6 minutes ago, DMC said:

First of all, of course the parliamentarian can be overruled.  That's not the point, at all.  The point, obviously, is if you start arbitrarily overruling the parliamentarian then there's not much sense in really having reconciliation in the first place, which in turn means there's not much sense in retaining the filibuster.

Second, they can still put a minimum wage bill on the floor.  Schumer won't, because it will just make Manchin and maybe Sinema look bad as well, but they could.  Reconciliation doesn't stop the majority leader from bringing a bill to the floor.

I mean, don't threaten me with a good time.

They should make those two look bad, they deserve to be made to look bad if they vote against it. Back in February of 2020, public sentiment for raising the minimum wage was in the high 60% range (I think 68%), a recent poll found that 72% of Americans (Republicans (62%), Democrats (87%) and Independents (69%)) support raising the minimum wage (whether it is $15 an hour specifically is not stated as far as I can tell, but still), there is not a lot of ground for them to hide on this.

I'd think that doing it as part of the relief package actually gives Manchin and Sinema the ability to protect their garbage mavrick brand for voting for it since they can say they knew that Americans couldn't afford to not get the relief they so desperately need.

5 minutes ago, Fury Resurrected said:

Many many voters oppose the minimum wage hike, it would be a vote with no consequences.

Not as many as you may think, as evidenced by the poll I posted, as well as how even in red states things like minimum wage hikes are passing. This and cannabis legalization are winning issues with most voters, no matter how loud the opposition is about it.

 

[DMC]

1 minute ago, GrimTuesday said:

They should make those two look bad, they deserve to be made to look bad if they vote against it. Back in February of 2020, public sentiment for raising the minimum wage was in the high 60% range (I think 68%), a recent poll found that 72% of Americans (Republicans (62%), Democrats (87%) and Independents (69%)) support raising the minimum wage (whether it is $15 an hour specifically is not stated as far as I can tell, but still), there is not a lot of ground for them to hide on this.

Manchin and Sinema only care about how it polls in West Virginia and Arizona.  Same reason gun control can't happen.

3 minutes ago, GrimTuesday said:

I'd think that doing it as part of the relief package actually gives Manchin and Sinema the ability to protect their garbage mavrick brand for voting for it since they can say they knew that Americans couldn't afford to not get the relief they so desperately need.

Again, if you're gonna put it in the reconciliation bill anyway, then there's no point in having reconciliation in the first place.  It'd be effectively abolishing the filibuster, which there's obviously not 50 votes for.  You're living in fantasy land.  And stupidly bad politics land, for that matter.

[Week]

15 minutes ago, Tywin et al. said:

I'm not much in the mood for debating, but people should be prepared for a minimum wage increase, just well below what they were hoped for. $12 would be an achievement.

With regular increases tied to CPI -- that would be more palatable than giving up on $15. 

[kairparavel]

What is March 4th?

Sorry to say I looked it up. More QBS.

https://www.vox.com/policy-and-politics/22280323/qanon-march-president-trump-inaugration-conspiracy-theory

Also, reminder that Rand Paul's neighbor had the right of it.

[Week]

May be some momentum to tie a $15 minimum wage to tax breaks for businesses. No $15 minimum wage, no tax deductions. I like the idea although I worry that it could accelerate the contractor problem -- will have to see how they plan to counteract that. 

 

Eta- Bernie, Wyden, and Schatz have come out in favor.