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For All Mankind (spoilers)


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On 6/24/2022 at 7:12 AM, Werthead said:

Launching from the moon is very cost-effective. You use much less fuel than launching from Earth. I think you're also better off launching from the moon and only having to escape the moon's gravity (and the much more limited pull from Earth at that distance) than you are launching from low Earth orbit, where you still have to climb out of the Earth's gravity well.

"Very cost-effective" if you ignore the cost of building a Moon base, operating it several years, and the cost of operations for mining lunar resources to make propellants.  It requires NASA's old accounting trick of closing it's collective eyes to what the true costs are.  Or like American capitalists socializing the costs and privatizing the profits.

If you already plan on occupying the Moon, then providing propellants for a Mars ship is marginal to Moon occupation, but if you're only on the Moon to make propellants to go to Mars then it gets very expensive and becomes the dumbest option.  The show pays attention to that very well by making a Moon base existing for its own sake instead of making it an adjunct to Mars launches.  Particularly in season 2 finding easily accessible ice deposits makes hydrogen production easy, but in reality we just don't know if lunar ice deposits are concentrated in any viably accessible level.  Yet in the show they have nuclear rockets, so let's assume they stopped on the Moon to load up on Helium-3.  Likely the engines work by using the nuclear power to superheat hydrogen and blasting it out faster and hotter than possible combusting it with oxygen, so they refuelled with hydrogen too.

Helios corps' Phoenix spacecraft uses methane engines.  Can't make methane on the Moon, due to the lack of carbon, so launching from Earth to LEO is the only option.  Methane is better than hydrogen for launching off the Earth, and landing on Mars, but hydrogen is far better for interplanetary transfer between the planets.  But hydrogen will boil off quicker.

Phoenix is also way more massive than Sojourner.  I'd expect in the show NASA to win this race based on that alone, except we don't know how good those nuclear engines are.  Hydrogen has better specific impulse than methane, but there is a lot less of it for the smaller Sojourner craft, and it takes up more volume.  Did they choose the right size and speed to beat Phoenix to Mars?  Phoenix could win by brute force, being able to burn the engines longer.

Trucking enough methane and oxygen to the Polaris station in LEO, even if it took hundreds of launches, would be cheaper using reusable rockets. (However, perhaps the methalox engines are just the lander that detaches from the Polaris hab).  From Earth methane and oxygen is only going to cost a few million per rocket.  Even with reusable rockets lunar propellants would add billions of dollars in costs of Moon mining operations.  With expendable rockets that Moon base would be hundreds of billions.

From the delta-v maps I've seen it looks like launching from LEO vs the Moon's surface is only a 0.9 km/s difference, so "much less fuel" for the same size rockets isn't exactly true.  I don't know it's worth it.  As Heinlein said, LEO is already halfway to anywhere in the solar system.  Over-complexity is costly.  The simpler plan is go to Mars directly, like the Russians might or might not be doing.

Your crew and most of the equipment is still coming from Earth, since building up the capability to manufacture everything on the Moon will take a lot longer than the few decades that's passed in the show so far.  Assembly in orbit is difficult enough, but mining and manufacturing everything needed is unlikely for a while yet.  Gravity is needed for a lot of separation processes.

 

On 6/24/2022 at 7:12 AM, Werthead said:

The Russians launching directly from Earth's surface is definitely weird, but if they had a superheavy lift rocket already in service (which they must do, to get to the moon), they may have decided it was better to use one of those then go to the rigmarole of building on the moon. It get the impression their space programme, although far superior to reality, was still on a shoestring compared to NASA.

The crew for all three missions will start from Earth, and it just depends on mission architecture whether they are transferring to a different craft to get the rest of the way.  We don't know if the scene with the Russians launching was anything more than the crew getting to orbit in order to rendezvous with a large spacecraft.  Even Zubrin's Mars Direct plan rendezvous a crew capsule with a hab/transfer module already assembled in orbit.  Something like that is what the show Russians likely are doing.

Edited by SpaceChampion
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11 hours ago, Ser Scot A Ellison said:

Is there some rule against Astronauts ducking in the FAM universe or something?

Space suits are basically like balloons filled with air. They're not very flexible and I doubt an astronaut could really "duck" in any effective way. 

That said, the Scotsman just standing there watching everything rather than actually doing what he was told and moving was kind of lame. Guess he just panicked and froze up.

I think Margo's secret is going to be exposed this season, or nearly so, based on the footage of the Russian spacecraft's nuclear engines probably looking very similar to their own design.

Edited by Ran
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4 minutes ago, Ran said:

I think Margo's secret is going to be exposed this season, or nearly so, based on the footage of the Russian spacecraft's nuclear engines probably looking very similar to their own design.

I actually think Margo sandbagged the Russians and sent them a deliberately flawed design.  She seemed to know something bad was coming for the Russians.

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2 minutes ago, Ser Scot A Ellison said:

I actually think Margo sandbagged the Russians and sent them a deliberately flawed design.  She seemed to know something bad was coming for the Russians.

IIRC, she remarked that if their engines were like the American ones (which of course they are) they were taking a huge risk because they could get temperatures that would damage or meltdown the engines, which is what happened. Others glanced at her briefly, no doubt suggesting that they didn't think there was strong reason to suppose their designs were so similar to that of NASA.

So the phrasing of it makes me think that the designs are very close.

 

Edited by Ran
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That was an outstanding episode of television. Basically just Apollo 13 on a modern TV budget. I winced at the rapid-fire deaths showing how dangerous space is (and the suit plates breaking made me think of how well Blackbird did that in their recent game Hardspace: Shipbreaker).

I really liked that they didn't handwave transmission lag, and making the hypothetical race into an actual race worked quite well with tension. Also, the President's problems with gas and coal workers losing their jobs to helium-3 was a subtle way of commenting on recent US politics without being too on the nose about it.

I also can't see how the US ship is in any good state after that. Does this mean the Helios mission has to now mount a rescue so none of them get to Mars and we get a do-around later in the season? Or maybe they somehow have the capacity to rescue everyone and then everyone gets to Mars.

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28 minutes ago, Werthead said:

also can't see how the US ship is in any good state after that. Does this mean the Helios mission has to now mount a rescue so none of them get to Mars and we get a do-around later in the season? Or maybe they somehow have the capacity to rescue everyone and then everyone gets to Mars.

My guess is that the NASA ship will be no good for entry into Mars, but they'll dock it in some fashion with the Phoenix and then have its engines turn on to propel them. Or maybe they'll cannibalize the light sail modules or some such, which I am pretty sure are too small to be useful for even the NASA ship in reality, but the show is doing lots of handwaving anyways so what's a bit more?

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6 hours ago, Ran said:

IIRC, she remarked that if their engines were like the American ones (which of course they are) they were taking a huge risk because they could get temperatures that would damage or meltdown the engines, which is what happened. Others glanced at her briefly, no doubt suggesting that they didn't think there was strong reason to suppose their designs were so similar to that of NASA.

So the phrasing of it makes me think that the designs are very close.

 

Aleida saw it. No way she lets it slide with Margo when the opportunity to do it discreetly comes up. When it does Margo could also defer to having kept the sails a secret. She's savvy enough to go double agent, and it might be an interesting frame of where the Intelligence and Action community is at. But would keeping the President out of the loop have been possible?

Present sitch: They'll need the fuel for more than the extra mass. The Russian's also have lots of foodstuff, Maybe there's a quick fix. More mass. Fuel storage maybe a problem. Oxygen. If they can figure all that out they'd have the highest boost capability of the remaining two. And NASA knows its limits. 

This Danny drama still feels pinned on, another goad for Ed to rise to the occasion. Karen will probably use Dev's democracy against him. Could be a tight race.

Last, Mars is such a big deal. This society and its industry, if it trickles down, later seasons will be very very different from our experience. Overall I really enjoy this show. 

 

Edited by JGP
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Wow, what an episode! I don't think that there is room for them not getting to Mars, though, since it has been made clear that if they flub this attempt, there wouldn't be support for another for a very long time. The US lacks political will and Wilson is poised to stab NASA in the back, not to mention the likely possibility of Margo's secret coming out and resultant scandal. The Soviets are spent and desperate, that's their last-ditch attempt at relevance. I don't see Dev having resources and desire for a repeat either. And there are just 4 episodes left in this season, with no guarantee of another one.

I assume that Bill will help Ed to disable the auto-pilot and he'll save the other 2 crews. Whereas NASAs separate cargo missions will provide them with resources  to land, do some actual science and return. The other 2 seem like pure "plant the flag" endeavours. And there is going to be some unneccessary Danny drama to spice things up, sigh.

I am greatly enjoying this, hand-wavy or not.

 

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Heh, I was wrong on all counts with my predictions. Ed sabotaged himself by taking Danny along - he 100% wouldn't have turned back if he had been with anybody else. OTOH, their landing craft seemed to have problems, so maybe it would have all ended tragically instead. I am very afraid for Aleida - Margo is backed into a corner and may try to save her own and Sergei's skins at her expense. Also, wasn't he supposed to have a wife and children? I am almost certain that it was mentioned at some point in the previous seasons. Aleida's obsession is understandable, given that her father was accused of espionage back then, but it also makes it easier to frame her. 

I really hope that they won't try to up the soap drama by having Kelly defect to USSR. I had a feeling that maybe the Russians have scuttled their expedition on purpose once it became clear that they would lose the race, to get access to US resources on Mars and first-hand experience with their technology. I expected a mutiny there for a moment, before Danielle decided to go for landing.

So, Karen's next step is politics, right? And Wayne is great as always.

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2 hours ago, Maia said:

am very afraid for Aleida - Margo is backed into a corner and may try to save her own and Sergei's skins at her expense

I’ll be very surprised if Margo is so ruthless as to throw Aleida under the bus to save her own skin.  That would be a complete contradiction of the character that laid into Van Braun in the first season.  

If anything I think Margo will sacrifice herself to save Sergei and Aleida will succeed her.

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Forgot there was a dedicated thread. As I wrote in the other one, I love this season.

The final scene was hilarious.

As for Margo, she would never have given the Russians a flawed design on purpose. She's naive and has her own 'special' moral compass, but she'd never endanger lives.

I do wonder what her plane to save Sergej and his family is (btw, does that include his wife?) but I think she may sacrifice herself.

Aleida will be so disappointed in her...

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Great episode, although I'm not sold on anyone landing under those conditions just to be "first!" It does articulate well the problems that could arise the second astronauts are out of real-time contact with Earth and can basically do what the hell they like without Mission Control being able to intervene. All of the major space agencies have agonised over this at some length, I believe.

The image of the first person on Mars being American and Russian simultaneously and you can't tell who because they were fighting is brilliant though.

I am wondering if Ellen's sexuality is going to come to light and that's going to plunge her into her own Clinton-esque impeachment crisis (next season if not this one). That feels like a ticking time bomb.

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Regarding Ellen, maybe a scandal - but how? For all we know, she's on the straight & narrow now, so unless she has affairs on the side...Then again, we've seen very little of her this season, so maybe she does have a secret life. I don't think her ex-lover would talk.

She could also stumble over the NASA scandal with Margo, if it blows up.

Or maybe that Dem leader who plays hardball (talk about unrealistic tv!) will blackmail her with either of these things.

I suspect there'll be an assassination (attempt?) though.

Edited by Mindwalker
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21 minutes ago, Mindwalker said:


Regarding Ellen, maybe a scandal - but how? For all we know, she's on the straight & narrow now, so unless she has affairs on the side...Then again, we've seen very little of her this season, so maybe she does have a secret life. I don't think her ex-lover would talk.

She could also stumble over the NASA scandal with Margo, if it blows up.

Or maybe that Dem leader who plays hardball (talk about unrealistic tv!) will blackmail her with either of these things.

I suspect there'll be an assassination (attempt?) though.

Her Veep finds out and attacks?

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The fact that Sojourn was capable of atmospheric entry, much less landing, after the Russian vehicle crashed into it is supreme silliness. Someone gut crushed between the two hulls, the hell they didn't crack some of those ceramic plates, compromising is ability to withstand atmospheric friction.

I'm with Scot that the Danny story is such a drag, but I've a feeling his story line will come to an end this season.

Re: Sergei and wife and children, I don't think anything has been explicitly said. However, pretty sure he had on a wedding ring in the 2nd season, though. I'd guess divorced or a widower with no kids, since he did not mention them this episode.

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17 hours ago, Ser Scot A Ellison said:

If anything I think Margo will sacrifice herself to save Sergei and Aleida will succeed her.

 

I am afraid that Aleida is irrevocably tainted by association in any case, unless she goes to over Margo's head with her suspicions before the things blow up, which she isn't going to do.

And I am not sure how Margo would be able to save Sergei's family if she turns herself in - she'd need to gain time for that, which would necessarily mean shutting up and discrediting Aleida. Even if she confesses and convinces CIA or whoever to run her as a double agent, this would still be the case. And there are Russians to consider too - if they feel that Margo is slipping away or about to fall, who knows what they will do.

BTW, I know that this is largely alt.history by this point, but USSR specifically tried to ensure that the few people allowed to go abroad would be married and have families, which remained back home, to prevent defections. Ditto cosmonauts, etc. Which makes me deeply suspicious of the dude flirting with Kelly. Could it be that after their success with Margo, they had orders to try to recruit more spies in this manner?

Also, not that it was taught particularly well, outside of specialised schools, but everybody had 7 years of English at school and a couple of years at college, so "where did you learn English?" was a rather nonsensical question. It is just that most people had no use for it afterwards and forgot it, which obviously wouldn't be the case for people in the space program.

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