MCUniverse: Into the Spider-Thread

[JGP]

This is bullshit. I’m calling the Prime Minister.

[mormont]

9 hours ago, Werthead said:

I think it's clear they're not planning a Disney+ release for subsequent films unless absolutely necessary, with the hope that things can be back to normal before the end of the year.

I don't think that's clear at all.

Disney must be looking at the situation in the round. Yes, their US, UK and to some extent EU markets are probably, by the end of the year, going to be mostly vaccinated. Most of the big Chinese cities should be OK by the end of the year, but that's assuming everything goes to plan. And other countries could still be a way off.

But more importantly, when will markets like the UK even allow cinemas to re-open, and will customers be cautious or reluctant to go back to it? How many cinemas will close?

Critically, COVID didn't create this problem. Fewer people were going to cinemas anyway. But COVID accelerated the decline quite markedly. And Disney, ultimately, only care about making money. If they believe the future is in home release, or that there are considerable risks that cinema release is going to be affected for some time to come, they'll be planning more D+ releases.

[Heartofice]

Yeah I won’t be paying for individual films.. just as a general point of principal I don’t do it. I know that doesn’t make sense as I go to the cinema to watch movies but I never do it at home. I sure as shit won’t pay over £10 to see a movie in my home. That’s going to be a real problem for movie makers because I doubt I’m alone in that. It’s hard to make people pay for things they already get for ‘almost’ free.

Anyway what’s up with that release schedule?!  How can any of those movies be coming out this year when I haven’t even seen a behind the scenes picture and certainly no teaser trailers.

[Rhom]

2 hours ago, Heartofice said:

 

Anyway what’s up with that release schedule?!  How can any of those movies be coming out this year when I haven’t even seen a behind the scenes picture and certainly no teaser trailers.

That was my first thought too.

[DaveSumm]

2 hours ago, mormont said:

And Disney, ultimately, only care about making money.

Indeed. I wonder if they made more on Mulan than they expected? And that wasn’t particularly acclaimed, or part of any universe. And I guess they keep 100% of the $30 and don’t split it with the cinemas either.

2 hours ago, Heartofice said:

Anyway what’s up with that release schedule?!  How can any of those movies be coming out this year when I haven’t even seen a behind the scenes picture and certainly no teaser trailers.

I guess they can’t hype the next movie when there’s one still to be released? It’d be weird to drop an awesome trailer for Shang Chi and then drop Black Widow soon after. You’ve gotta think any MCU films are in regardless of the schedule, but I guess there’s a bottom line that gets affected the more congested the release schedule gets.

[Werthead]

Yup, I imagine the first Shang-Chi trailer might be in front of Black Widow, and then the first trailer for Eternals will be in front of Shang-Chi etc. Spider-Man will be different as Sony have a say in the marketing, so I could see No Way Home trailers dropping a fair bit earlier than that.

The streaming profitability argument is interesting. The test-case was Mulan, with a budget of $200 million (slightly more than most non-Avengers MCU movies). we know the film made $70 million from a limited theatrical release and $90 million at best from the initial streaming release period. When marketing is factored in, it appears that the film did not break even from its initial release period; tracking figures since then is much harder, but if the film did break even, it was probably not by much. Soul was a bit cheaper and seemed to do somewhat better, so either has broken even or is close to doing so. Raya and the Last Dragon has done much better but that had budget of only around $100 million.

Other streaming-first releases have been more successful because the film in question has been lower in budget or because the film has debuted on a subscription service where the audience has already paid, like Netflix or Amazon Prime, which removes a barrier to being watched.

I think the conclusion is that streaming-first release works really well for films of a certain budget and at a certain point it ceases being worthwhile, and an average-release MCU film is very close to the point at which it's not worthwhile. Black Widow being put on a hybrid release I think reflects that. If they had 100% confidence that home-first was the way to go, they'd have put the film out on Disney+ months ago, and they clearly felt backed into a corner here by the rest of the film and TV schedule. If they do the same thing for Shang-Chi and maybe Eternals (I suspect Sony will absolutely stop them from doing it for Spider-Man), it will again be reluctantly and because they feel they have no choice.

The argument that premium streaming releases can replace cinema releases going forwards for high-budget "event" films does seem thin at the moment, but more persuasive for lower-budget and children's films.

[Derfel Cadarn]

1 hour ago, Werthead said:

Yup, I imagine the first Shang-Chi trailer might be in front of Black Widow, and then the first trailer for Eternals will be in front of Shang-Chi etc. Spider-Man will be different as Sony have a say in the marketing, so I could see No Way Home trailers dropping a fair bit earlier than that.

The streaming profitability argument is interesting. The test-case was Mulan, with a budget of $200 million (slightly more than most non-Avengers MCU movies). we know the film made $70 million from a limited theatrical release and $90 million at best from the initial streaming release period. When marketing is factored in, it appears that the film did not break even from its initial release period; tracking figures since then is much harder, but if the film did break even, it was probably not by much. Soul was a bit cheaper and seemed to do somewhat better, so either has broken even or is close to doing so. Raya and the Last Dragon has done much better but that had budget of only around $100 million.

Other streaming-first releases have been more successful because the film in question has been lower in budget or because the film has debuted on a subscription service where the audience has already paid, like Netflix or Amazon Prime, which removes a barrier to being watched.

I think the conclusion is that streaming-first release works really well for films of a certain budget and at a certain point it ceases being worthwhile, and an average-release MCU film is very close to the point at which it's not worthwhile. Black Widow being put on a hybrid release I think reflects that. If they had 100% confidence that home-first was the way to go, they'd have put the film out on Disney+ months ago, and they clearly felt backed into a corner here by the rest of the film and TV schedule. If they do the same thing for Shang-Chi and maybe Eternals (I suspect Sony will absolutely stop them from doing it for Spider-Man), it will again be reluctantly and because they feel they have no choice.

The argument that premium streaming releases can replace cinema releases going forwards for high-budget "event" films does seem thin at the moment, but more persuasive for lower-budget and children's films.

Sony almost definitely would have an issue. Even the first two MCU spiderman films are absent from Disney +

[DaveSumm]

I hadn’t given much thought to Deadpool 3 as it’s a long way off, but I notice that Feige did confirm it’d be an MCU film. And yet it’s still referred to as ‘Deadpool 3’ ... which is weird, to have a third film be the first in the universe. I guess multiverse shenanigans again?

[Rhom]

4 minutes ago, DaveSumm said:

I hadn’t given much thought to Deadpool 3 as it’s a long way off, but I notice that Feige did confirm it’d be an MCU film. And yet it’s still referred to as ‘Deadpool 3’ ... which is weird, to have a third film be the first in the universe. I guess multiverse shenanigans again?

If any franchise is built to hop between multiverses... its Deadpool.

I liked when Colossus was dragging him off to "See the professor" and he asks "Stewart or McAvoy?"

[Which Tyler]

I just want to see Deadpool F-ing and Blind-ing, whilst everyone else speaks PG12; with Deadpool being bleeped out and being the only one to notice this.

[mormont]

New Loki trailer:

 

[karaddin]

Yup I'm as enthusiastic for that as I was expecting. Hiddleston is just so good as Loki.

[Jaxom 1974]

Nice to see official confirmation on the idea that this story is born out of Loki breaking the timestream in 2012 in Endgame...

[sifth]

I wonder if Luke Wilson is going to leave Star Girl. Whenever an actor/actress has a main character role on two tv shows at the same time, one of their characters is usually killed off.

[Quijote Light]

27 minutes ago, sifth said:

I wonder if Luke Wilson is going to leave Star Girl. Whenever an actor/actress has a main character role on two tv shows at the same time, one of their characters is usually killed off.

That’s Owen in the Loki trailer. 

[sifth]

11 minutes ago, Quijote Light said:

That’s Owen in the Loki trailer. 

Ohh, my bad, the brothers look so much alike.

[Heartofice]

Loki is probably my most anticipated of the Marvel shows.. it’s giving me some Umbrella Academy vibes though. Having said that I seem to be one of the few who really liked UA.

[Fez]

Whatever that agency is that Owen Wilson is part of, I'm getting some really heavy Control Agency vibes in their whole aesthetic. 

[Slurktan]

1 hour ago, sifth said:

Ohh, my bad, the brothers look so much alike.

I mean....... yes they are siblings but come on.  Easy way to tell is one is blond and the other is not.  Also they talk and sound completely different.

[sifth]

2 hours ago, Slurktan said:

I mean....... yes they are siblings but come on.  Easy way to tell is one is blond and the other is not.  Also they talk and sound completely different.

They have different voices, but they talk in a similar manner. Also hair dye and wigs are a thing.