Jump to content

Lyanna's marriage or why there was an anti Targ conspiracy going on before the Rebellion


Alyn Oakenfist

Recommended Posts

So, one of the common debates ever since ADWD is, was there actually an anti Targ conspiracy going on? And I think yes, and I think the proof lies in Lyanna's marriage. So really think about it, what did the North really gain from Lyanna marrying Robert? Not much really, the Stormlands are dirt poor and they're so far off and with so shitty waters that trade isn't really an option. The only way the marriage makes sense is if Robert was supposed to be more than that. But wait, I hear you say, surely Robert was the best option available. And to that, I will get to my next point, and point out another, better potential math for Lyanna.

Elbert Arryn, Jon Arryn's heir for a long time. Now, had Lyanna married him instead, it would have tied the Vale to the North by blood, for a lifetime and then some more. But wait, I hear you say, wasn't the North tied to the Vale due to Jon Arryn taking Ned as a ward. Yes, yes it was, for as long as Jon Arryn was alive, which is to say 20 years at best. So Rickard's Northern connections only needed the Vale to be tied to the North for the immediate future, and preferred a tie to the Stormlands by blood. By all accounts it doesn't make sense. Unless Robert was supposed to be better.

Also, we also have Jaime. Between Lysa and Lyanna, Lyanna would I think be a far better option, coming from a stronger Kingdom, tied to two others (the Vale and the North). And the advantages of marrying into the Lannisters as opposed to the Baratheons are too many to count, be it trade, power or prestige.

What I'm trying to get at, is that for someone as desperate to sell his children in marriage as Rickard, marrying Lyanna to Robert is a bad idea, unless Robert was intended from the get go to be more than just Lord Paramount of the Stormlands.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Robert was a young, dashing and charismatic Lord with close ties with the Targaryens. Jon was an older than Rickard himself, twice widowed man. Rickard wanted to ‘spread’ his blood and have ties with the South but he wasn’t desperate enough to marry his daughter off with just anyone.

If there was an anti Aerys conspiracy it was made by Rhaegar.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

There is no proof of a Anti Targ conspiracy, it was just father and son pissing off the people they shouldn't. People just see hpw it ended and can't believe that it was not something random.

 

42 minutes ago, Alyn Oakenfist said:

So really think about it, what did the North really gain from Lyanna marrying Robert?

Robert is one of the most eligible bachelors in Westeros... How is he not a good match.

 

42 minutes ago, Alyn Oakenfist said:

Not much really, the Stormlands are dirt poor and they're so far off and with so shitty waters that trade isn't really an option.

I have never read Martin or anyone in the books that the Stormlands is poor. We can tellthat it's poorer than Reach,  Westerlands, Riverlands and the Vale but that's about it.

 

 

45 minutes ago, Alyn Oakenfist said:

The only way the marriage makes sense is if Robert was supposed to be more than that. But wait, I hear you say, surely Robert was the best option available.

I mean, how many people would say no to the Lord of Storm's End??

 

45 minutes ago, Alyn Oakenfist said:

Elbert Arryn, Jon Arryn's heir for a long time. Now, had Lyanna married him instead, it would have tied the Vale to the North by blood, for a lifetime and then some more. But wait, I hear you say, wasn't the North tied to the Vale due to Jon Arryn taking Ned as a ward. Yes, yes it was, for as long as Jon Arryn was alive, which is to say 20 years at best. So Rickard's Northern connections only needed the Vale to be tied to the North for the immediate future, and preferred a tie to the Stormlands by blood. By all accounts it doesn't make sense. Unless Robert was supposed to be better.

Thing is, neither Rickard nor Jon Arryn seemed particularly interested in the match,  Jon Arryn knew that Robert was smitten with Lyanna and he was like a son to him, why in the world would he try to screw him over??

Elbert Arryn and Brandon Stark seemed closed friends anyway, so i think that relayionships between both Houses were locked.

 

 

48 minutes ago, Alyn Oakenfist said:

Also, we also have Jaime. Between Lysa and Lyanna, Lyanna would I think be a far better option, coming from a stronger Kingdom, tied to two others (the Vale and the North). And the advantages of marrying into the Lannisters as opposed to the Baratheons are too many to count, be it trade, power or prestige.

You're counting your eggs before having them.

Lysa came from a powerful region and Tywin would be getting through that ties anyway through her. Besides where it's hinted that he was interested in said alliance.

Nor i can see where the Baratheons are less prestigious than the Lannisters, especially Steffon's blood who were cousins with the Royal House.

 

 

51 minutes ago, Alyn Oakenfist said:

What I'm trying to get at, is that for someone as desperate to sell his children in marriage as Rickard, marrying Lyanna to Robert is a bad idea, unless Robert was intended from the get go to be more than just Lord Paramount of the Stormlands.

That's the thing.

 

  1.  Rickard was not desperate to sell his children in marriage, Ned and Benjen were never betrothed, you can compare him with Tywin, Hoster (with his daughter not his son), Mace yadda yadda.  The only reason Lyanna was even betrothed is because Robert asked. 
  2. Marrying her to Robert is an excellent match.
Link to comment
Share on other sites

1 minute ago, Alyn Oakenfist said:

That's why I said Elbert. Or Jaime

Tywin didn't seemed to care about marrying his son and Elbert was the heir just until Jon had a son of his own. Robert was the King's cousin and a Lord not just the heir. It doesn't seem like Rickard was selling his children to the hightest bidder. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Barbrey Dustin, or Ryswell if you would prefer, referred to the tip of the iceberg and called it southron conspiracy.  Rickard Stark and Robert Baratheon were plotting to remove the Targaryens from the throne.  Which can only be done through rebellion.  So in a way, Aerys had the right to kill Rickard Stark and his son, Brandon.  He had a right to call for Robert's head.  

I thought it may have been a desire on the Starks part to become kings of their impoverished corner of the continent again.  It may have started that way but Eddard was not his father.  Eddard didn't have the same opinion as his father and was content to keep the north part of the kingdom.  

Link to comment
Share on other sites

11 hours ago, Alyn Oakenfist said:

So, one of the common debates ever since ADWD is, was there actually an anti Targ conspiracy going on? And I think yes, and I think the proof lies in Lyanna's marriage. So really think about it, what did the North really gain from Lyanna marrying Robert? Not much really, the Stormlands are dirt poor and they're so far off and with so shitty waters that trade isn't really an option. The only way the marriage makes sense is if Robert was supposed to be more than that. But wait, I hear you say, surely Robert was the best option available. And to that, I will get to my next point, and point out another, better potential math for Lyanna.

Elbert Arryn, Jon Arryn's heir for a long time. Now, had Lyanna married him instead, it would have tied the Vale to the North by blood, for a lifetime and then some more. But wait, I hear you say, wasn't the North tied to the Vale due to Jon Arryn taking Ned as a ward. Yes, yes it was, for as long as Jon Arryn was alive, which is to say 20 years at best. So Rickard's Northern connections only needed the Vale to be tied to the North for the immediate future, and preferred a tie to the Stormlands by blood. By all accounts it doesn't make sense. Unless Robert was supposed to be better.

Also, we also have Jaime. Between Lysa and Lyanna, Lyanna would I think be a far better option, coming from a stronger Kingdom, tied to two others (the Vale and the North). And the advantages of marrying into the Lannisters as opposed to the Baratheons are too many to count, be it trade, power or prestige.

What I'm trying to get at, is that for someone as desperate to sell his children in marriage as Rickard, marrying Lyanna to Robert is a bad idea, unless Robert was intended from the get go to be more than just Lord Paramount of the Stormlands.

If there was a conspiracy, it wasn't an anti-Targaryen one. Instead, anti-Aerys, or something.  There was no benefit for Hoster Tully and Rickard Stark from overthrowing an entire dynasty, assuming it was them who started all these things.

You also forget that Rickard pushed only Brandon's marriage, not Lyanna's.

You also forget that doesn't everyone has to marry into the other families. If Rickard and Hoster decide something, along with Hoster comes Tywin (if the Jaime-Lysa marriage would've happened), and even Dorne would benefit from overthroeing Aerys II, Rhaegar inheriting. The problematic kingdoms were the Vale, the Stormlands and the Reach. The Crownlands would've chosen Rhaegar, for sure, the Vale would've been secured by Ned growing up there (likely), and the Stormlands would've been secured for the exact same reasons the Vale would've been. At this point, everyone would've supported Rhaegar over Aerys, except for the Reach, and we do know the Reach easily can be divided.

But honestly, who would support a madman?

In RR, it was the Targaryens the people supported, not directly Aerys. People also forget that Aerys executed Jon Arryn's heir. We don't even know if he was so anti-Targaryen before that, but considering that the Arryns married into House Targaryen twice, I don't think so.

Either way, a marriage between Lyanna and Robert would've been unnecesarry for the Conspiracy. Robert Baratheon by that time had no reason to favorize mad Aerys over his future heir.

Edit: You can't even say that Hoster and Rickard had a candidate for the Throne with Robert. It was right before the Trident when the Lords of Westeros decided to put him on the IT once/if they'll win. And also, too much open betrothals and marriages would've made the king suspicious, especially a mad one.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

2 hours ago, James West said:

Rickard Stark and Robert Baratheon were plotting to remove the Targaryens from the throne.

Rickard? Sure.

Jon Arryn and Hoster? Maybe

But there's no way Robert knew, he was too young, too brash and too inexperienced to be told of such a conspiracy.

2 hours ago, James West said:

He had a right to call for Robert's head.  

No he didn't.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

14 minutes ago, Alyn Oakenfist said:

You know, I don't know what's the bigger number, the number of times they pull out some unsubstantiated claim, or the number of times we ask them to prove it and they never even bother to reply.

Which one came first the chicken or the egg?

Link to comment
Share on other sites

There is nothing to this. Robert asked for Lya's hand, not the other way around, and he was the best match a Stark could hope for. Much better than Cat for Brandon, who was just a Tully. Robert was the Lord of Storm's End, a man in whose veins flowed not only the blood of the Storm Kings but also the Targaryens ... and he was a close cousin of the present king making this an almost royal match.

Rickard seems to have immediately agreed to such a match, considering no Stark has ever gotten as prestigious a match before, but there is no indication that this had anything to do with a conspiracy plan.

Rickard supposedly had southron ambitions - he wanted that the Starks play a bigger role in the larger realm, that they are no longer backwater nobility marrying amongst themselves. He had no intention to overthrow or plot against the Targaryens ... he wanted a prominent seat at their table. A seat on the council, say, the Handship, or perhaps even a royal match if this were possible ... although that would be very difficult with a family that preferred royal incest.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

We have been over this before, haven't we?

There is no indication there was a plot to remove the Targaryens. It's pretty clear however that the nobility of Westeros was moving to form power blocks. Remember that at the same time Martells and Lannisters were trying to form a match whilst Tywin wanted to keep the options open with an eye in a royal match. The Tyrells were strengthening their positions at home with matches with powerful houses. For me, the Southron ambitions were part of the power game: Gain more influence in the politics of the realm by presenting a more unified front. Quite normal. Even today.

My hypothesis is this had a lot to do with the yet unspecified pro-smallfolk policies of Aegon V, which certainly pissed off the nobility and they wanted to rescind. I seems to recall that Tywin did a lot of that, but certainly they will like to prevent that happening again. Maybe Rhaegar reminded them too much to Aegon V?

As a final note. The Starks in particular could have declared independence whenever they wanted and the IT throne could have done, well, nothing.

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

10 minutes ago, rotting sea cow said:

As a final note. The Starks in particular could have declared independence whenever they wanted and the IT throne could have done, well, nothing.

I mean they really could.

Just because the Neck is impenetrable, don't mean that the North is. The Ironborn would wreck havoc on the western Shore of the North, while a strong Royal Fleet could take White Harbor and use it's logistics as a springboard for an all out invasion of the North. It'd be tough, but with all the South united against them, the North would fall.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

5 minutes ago, Alyn Oakenfist said:

I mean they really could.

Just because the Neck is impenetrable, don't mean that the North is. The Ironborn would wreck havoc on the western Shore of the North, while a strong Royal Fleet could take White Harbor and use it's logistics as a springboard for an all out invasion of the North. It'd be tough, but with all the South united against them, the North would fall.

Ironborn only wreck havoc when they take others unaware like theives. Starks and their vassals would expect Ironborn's invasion. 

United southorn army would become toast in winter and run with their tails between their legs. They would eventually come to think north isn't worth fighting for.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

7 hours ago, rotting sea cow said:

We have been over this before, haven't we?

There is no indication there was a plot to remove the Targaryens. It's pretty clear however that the nobility of Westeros was moving to form power blocks. Remember that at the same time Martells and Lannisters were trying to form a match whilst Tywin wanted to keep the options open with an eye in a royal match. The Tyrells were strengthening their positions at home with matches with powerful houses. For me, the Southron ambitions were part of the power game: Gain more influence in the politics of the realm by presenting a more unified front. Quite normal. Even today.

My hypothesis is this had a lot to do with the yet unspecified pro-smallfolk policies of Aegon V, which certainly pissed off the nobility and they wanted to rescind. I seems to recall that Tywin did a lot of that, but certainly they will like to prevent that happening again. Maybe Rhaegar reminded them too much to Aegon V?

As a final note. The Starks in particular could have declared independence whenever they wanted and the IT throne could have done, well, nothing.

I don't think any of the stuff in that era is particularly noteworthy. Ned most likely ended up in the Vale because of his great-aunt there, and Robert may have gotten to the Vale because Steffon made some connection with Jon, possibly on the Stepstones.

The Tully matches are part of Hoster's personal ambition, his desire to make truly special matches for his daughters. And the Princess of Dorne and Joanna's plans go back to ties they formed while being in Queen Rhaella's service.

What exactly triggered Lord Rickard's interests in southern politics is so far unclear. Could have to do with that maester, could be connected to the wanderings of his father-in-law, the Wandering Wolf. Could be the simple fact that he realized that after the recent tragedies the Starks should have stronger ties with the south to ensure they would get more help during long winters, rebellions, wildling incursions and the like.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

13 hours ago, Lord Varys said:

There is nothing to this. Robert asked for Lya's hand, not the other way around, and he was the best match a Stark could hope for. Much better than Cat for Brandon, who was just a Tully. Robert was the Lord of Storm's End, a man in whose veins flowed not only the blood of the Storm Kings but also the Targaryens ... and he was a close cousin of the present king making this an almost royal match.

Rickard seems to have immediately agreed to such a match, considering no Stark has ever gotten as prestigious a match before, but there is no indication that this had anything to do with a conspiracy plan.

Rickard supposedly had southron ambitions - he wanted that the Starks play a bigger role in the larger realm, that they are no longer backwater nobility marrying amongst themselves. He had no intention to overthrow or plot against the Targaryens ... he wanted a prominent seat at their table. A seat on the council, say, the Handship, or perhaps even a royal match if this were possible ... although that would be very difficult with a family that preferred royal incest.

It can be argued he was trying to do what his ancestor Cregan Stark did during Aegon III reign and beyond.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Or maybe he met Aerys and learned of his plans for the North:

“In 264 AC, a visit to King’s Landing by Lord Rickard Stark of Winterfell awakened his interest in the North, and he hatched a plan to build a new Wall a hundred leagues north of the existing one and claim all the lands between.”

Rickard, to himself: What a wack job.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Archived

This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.

×
×
  • Create New...