Covid 19 #26: Now is the Winter of Our Discontent

[williamjm]

42 minutes ago, Fragile Bird said:

Oh, Health Canada actually approved the the brand name AZ vaccine and the Covishield vaccine being produced under the COVAX program. I wonder if they are slightly different?

We bought 20 M doses of the AZ vaccine. It will be shipped from US manufacturing plants. Ha ha ha. I wonder if that will be released by the US, since the US is supposed to be completely supplied by the “superior” vaccines by May. We are supposed to be supplied with about 1.9M doses of the Covishield vaccine, 500k from Korea in a few weeks, the rest from India, by May.

Since the US have not approved the AZ vaccine yet have there been plants there manufacturing it and just stockpiling it? That must be particularly infuriating for the countries who aren't getting what they ordered.

[Zorral]

Just heard on NPR the CDC trackers see new cases rising.  Again.

 

[JoannaL]

18 minutes ago, Zorral said:

Just heard on NPR the CDC trackers see new cases rising.  Again.

 

Mhn, read an article in the New York Times about various US variants.

https://www.nytimes.com/2021/02/14/health/coronavirus-variants-evolution.html

They are not the imported ones from oversea but home grown but have sometimes the same bad mutations as the British and South African variants (convergent evolution). Even if that is the reason for the new cases rising, hopefully the high US vaccination numbers and the seasonality will help you soon.

[Which Tyler]

Quote

The UK's advisory group on vaccinations is suggesting to the UK government that the next phase of vaccinations just be based on age

not occupation. Basically because it'll be easier to organise and they think the benefits of making the process quicker will outweigh the different risk profile of different jobs.

@ljkeane

I think they've been once bitten, twice shy, after thinking "healthcare professional" would be a nice, easy occupation to define and search for.

They then found that healthcare professionals from outside the NHS thought they'd be eligible too (eg private physios, surgeons, nurses etc), and then healthcare professionals who's profession is outside the NHS (eg chiropractors and osteopaths etc) and they had to draw lines somewhere, and proof of occupation.

Hell, it took them 4 weeks to agree that someone in private practice was actually healthcare, and after that the staff on the ground often needed convincing, and there's still trouble with someone being self-employed and working in healthcare (but no problem for being employed admin staff...)

[Xray the Enforcer]

Word to the wise: those who have an angry disaster of an immune system, be mindful that your reaction to even the first dose might be intense. I just spent two days feeling like absolute shit.

[Clueless Northman]

Shit, I hope you'll get better soon - assuming you're not already back into shape.

This makes me wonder if it means that you would be at greater risk of suffering a cytokine storm, had you gotten covid before, or if such a reaction to a vaccine has no relation with that risk.

[Fury Resurrected]

1 hour ago, Xray the Enforcer said:

Word to the wise: those who have an angry disaster of an immune system, be mindful that your reaction to even the first dose might be intense. I just spent two days feeling like absolute shit.

I got hit pretty hard on the first dose but the good news is the second dose was side effect free

[Xray the Enforcer]

17 minutes ago, Clueless Northman said:

Shit, I hope you'll get better soon - assuming you're not already back into shape.

This makes me wonder if it means that you would be at greater risk of suffering a cytokine storm, had you gotten covid before, or if such a reaction to a vaccine has no relation with that risk.

I slept most of today and yes, now feeling less terrible but still not delightful. I started getting the side effects maybe 4 hours post-injection (I got the shot at 8:15am yesterday), and it was really bad from about 6pm until 5pm today.

And yes, being at heightened risk for cytokine storm and organ failure was my main concern for Covid because of the specifics on how my immune system is messed up, and it did cross my mind that my reaction to the vaccine might be indicative of how I would react to the Sars-Cov-2 virus.

I was also not sure how my body would react to the mRNA technology. I get flu shots every year with the usual side-effects, but wasn't sure how I'd fare with this vaccine. Amongst my friends (many of whom have been vaccinated because they are essential workers), I definitely had one of the worst first-dose experiences. But I'm not sure if that's due to my immunological history or due to the type of vaccine -- I think I'm the only one who got the Pfizer vaccine; everyone else I know in NYC got the Moderna vaccine. 

[Xray the Enforcer]

7 minutes ago, Fury Resurrected said:

I got hit pretty hard on the first dose but the good news is the second dose was side effect free

Fingers crossed! I was not happy person yesterday and today.

[S John]

3 hours ago, Xray the Enforcer said:

and it did cross my mind that my reaction to the vaccine might be indicative of how I would react to the Sars-Cov-2 virus.

I mean, I’m no MD but that makes logical sense to me. If the vaccine doesn’t really phase someone I would think that likely indicative that they could be a candidate for a mild or even asymptomatic case. However if you’re having a rough time with the vaccine side-effects... I reckon you should consider yourself fortunate that you didn’t get Covid out in the wild. Glad that you got vaccinated and hope you are feeling back to 100% soon.

my wife and I are both now on lists. Her with the state, me through work. She’s slightly higher priority than me, but I suspect I’ll get called up sooner just because I’m signed up within a smaller pool. Complete guesswork but I’d be a little surprised if I don’t get my first dose in March or April. 

[Impmk2]

1 hour ago, S John said:

I mean, I’m no MD but that makes logical sense to me. If the vaccine doesn’t really phase someone I would think that likely indicative that they could be a candidate for a mild or even asymptomatic case. However if you’re having a rough time with the vaccine side-effects... I reckon you should consider yourself fortunate that you didn’t get Covid out in the wild.

....

Doesn't necessarily follow. If someone is unable to mount a decent immune response to the vaccine they're less likely to mount one to the virus, which could result in a more severe infection. One hypothesis on why children aren't particularly affected by this virus is that for whatever reason they're able to mount an extremely effective early immune response and largely neutralise the virus before it's able to effectively colonise. It's the reason why vaccines often aren't as effective in the elderly - they simply don't get any kind of decent response, so you'd expect they may have a relatively light time of the jab. This is all complicated of course in the case of covid as it's an extreme, relatively late stage immune response (possibily with some auto-immunity involved) which is killing people... so, who knows! Immunology is hard.

I've also seen some reports that people who have had sars-cov-2 infections have a really rough time with the vaccine, which would make sense too, as your immune system would already be primed to recognise the viral antigen and go nuts trying to get rid of it. So a rough reaction could also indicate an previous (unknown) asympotomatic infection.

[RhaenysBee]

So I got tested today and my oh my rapid test was glowing positively in an instant. I should have PCR results over the weekend. My symptoms aren’t particularly typical for covid, I have a sore throat, nose, sinus and forehead pressure a runny nose and no/darth vader/horror film voice. I suppose I’ll get fever before I get better as well, and I can only hope it won’t be too bad. 

anyway, moral of the story, yes, you can 100% catch covid while wearing a mask everywhere and only going to the grocery store, drugstore, etc and sanitizing the shit out of your hands. Like I have no idea when or where or how I contracted this shit. Absolutely no clue.

Anyway, the practical and logistical problems this causes in my life and more annoying than the prospect of getting seriously sick (though I still hope I’ll come through all right, statistically I have no reason to expect otherwise). My job, the flat, dealing with the piles of recyclables I should have taken down yesterday, doing laundry which I can’t do now as the machine is in sister’s bathroom. 

The guy who tested me told me to rest and take vitamin C and D. He was quite nice he remember having tested me before. And to call the emergency if I get worse. But now my dad wants to get me some covid drug as “prevention”, and I don’t understand it and I don’t want to get weird covid drug without being specifically urged by a medical professional. 

[The Anti-Targ]

Fudge! Auckland back at level 3 as of 6AM Sunday. I said I thought they dropped alert levels too soon. Unfortunately I think our health chief has a bit of form when it comes to underestimating the seriousness of the virus. He was slow off the mark at the very beginning on the asymptomatic and pre-symptomatic spread. And this time I think he underestimated how tricksy the UK strain is. Because of his [IMO] underestimation he either mis-advised the govt on dropping alert level, or he did not advise strongly enough to remain at level 3 the first time.

Though blame also goes to those who were identified as close enough contacts to need to be in isolation who still went out and a couple of people went to work. Something a bit tricksy has also been happening, I think [almost] every community case in the last week initially tested negative, and then started getting symptoms and tested positive. Also oddly about this outbreak is close contacts have not been testing positive, or getting sick, but casual / indirect contacts have been the ones getting the virus.

I think the govt dropping alert level too soon, people getting a bit complacent, and some test results making some of the cases feel like they are in the clear all contributed to Auckland going back into level 3 so soon. 

Anyway, it's a 7 day lockdown maybe with a review at the halfway mark. It still seems to be fairly contained, so I hope proper control is re-established in a week. 

[JoannaL]

50 minutes ago, The Anti-Targ said:

Fudge! Auckland back at level 3 as of 6AM Sunday. I said I thought they dropped alert levels too soon. Unfortunately I think our health chief has a t still seems to be fairly contained, so I hope proper control is re-established in a week. 

Is it clear yet how the new infection could happen? I thought you had a tight net of control on all incoming possibilities and a though track and trace?

[Xray the Enforcer]

6 hours ago, Impmk2 said:

This is all complicated of course in the case of covid as it's an extreme, relatively late stage immune response (possibily with some auto-immunity involved) which is killing people... so, who knows! Immunology is hard.

While it is true that not everyone who has a strong reaction to the vaccine would necessarily have a strong illness from SARS-CoV-2, in my particular case all bets are off. The manner in which my immune system malfunctions is very similar to how Covid kills (especially in those patients where you see multiple-organ shutdown) and my immune system is both 1) always dysregulated and 2) extremely reactive. But yes, immunology is hard. It was the worst course I had at university besides physical chemistry, so it makes total sense that I'd become a physical chemist with a poorly understood immunological disorder.

Anyway, thank you for the kind words, everyone. I am feeling a lot better today. Systemic side-effects are mostly gone; now I mainly have the expected sore, swollen, hot-to-the-touch spot on my upper arm.

[Padraig]

14 minutes ago, Xray the Enforcer said:

I am feeling a lot better today. Systemic side-effects are mostly gone; now I mainly have the expected sore, swollen, hot-to-the-touch spot on my upper arm.

Yikes.  Glad you are feeling better.  I hope the second dose is a lot smoother.

20 hours ago, Zorral said:

Just heard on NPR the CDC trackers see new cases rising.  Again.

Hmm.  I suppose that could be a weird coincidence.  Europe stared to see an increase in cases earlier in the week.  And now the US.  The continued rise in variants could be driving it.  But then, people may be relaxing precautions also?

I see the US is even closer to approving the J&J vaccine, with some caveats around older people with some health problems.  EU approval is likely to happen on the 11^th March but there isn’t supposed to be any deliveries till April (the US should get deliveries in March).

The EU should also be announcing deals with Novavax and Valneva shortly, given that the Irish government has signed off on getting its portion.  That will be 8 providers, which is impressive.  Less than a year ago, we were hoping for 1 vaccine in 12-18 months.  In fact, we are averaging around one new vaccine every month, with J&J to be followed by Novavax in Apr/May and Curevac in May/June (on top of the 3 existing ones).

I wonder what a vaccine manufacturer that doesn’t expect its vaccine to be approved until Q3 do though?  There are a lot of vaccines out there, although there is a potential gap when it comes to variants.  Do you just focus on them instead of continuing with current studies?  I know the EU is putting in clauses in its current contracts that its orders adjust to variants.

[Fragile Bird]

You know what my feelings are about countries that are keeping all vaccines produced in their countries for themselves, but I just saw a story in the WaPo that really disgusted me. A Texas vaccination clinic is turning away undocumented immigrants because “vaccines are only for American citizens”. 

Do these people not understand they need to vaccinate everyone in their communities to stop the spread of Covid-19, and that if a person is in the qualifying category they need to be vaccinated? I wonder if they are turning away people residing in the US on visas, because they aren’t American citizens either.

Eta: looking into it further, I see the university running the clinic site has since apologized to the 14 people turned away. Citizenship is not a requirement to receive a vaccine. Meanwhile, the Governor of Nebraska announced that undocumented workers in state meat-packing plants would not be vaccinated, then had to back off that statement. However, they’ll be vaccinated last, after all other workers. How stupid can you be. 

[Fragile Bird]

11 minutes ago, Padraig said:

I see the US is even closer to approving the J&J vaccine, with some caveats around older people with some health problems.  EU approval is likely to happen on the 11^th March but there isn’t supposed to be any deliveries till April (the US should get deliveries in March)..

I just don’t understand this. I watched all the press conferences related to Warp Speed and followed the discussions about it’s work starting back in May last year when it was announced. One of the clearest messages out of Warp Speed was that the manufacturers receiving money would produce vaccine doses ahead of approval so that there would be a stock pile ready to ship once their vaccine was approved.

We know that Pfizer and Moderna discovered it took more time to produce their first millions of doses on a large scale because it was a new process, but they are well into the learning curve now and are producing doses more quickly. I don’t understand why J&J doesn’t have doses ready, their vaccine isn’t an mRNA type. I thought that even if millions of doses had to be thrown out the US government was willing to take that risk in exchange for having a ready supply upon approval.

[ljkeane]

18 minutes ago, Fragile Bird said:

I don’t understand why J&J doesn’t have doses ready, their vaccine isn’t an mRNA type. I thought that even if millions of doses had to be thrown out the US government was willing to take that risk in exchange for having a ready supply upon approval.

Their vaccine's an adenovirus vaccine like Astrazeneca's and, as we've seen, they've been having difficulties ramping up production too. From what I can tell with mRNA vaccines the problem is you need very specialised equipment. With adenovirus vaccines it seems like it takes a fair amount of trial and error to work out how to maximise output. They do have millions of doses ready (apparently more than expected) but they aren't operating at full capacity yet.

40 minutes ago, Padraig said:

The EU should also be announcing deals with Novavax and Valneva shortly, given that the Irish government has signed off on getting its portion.  That will be 8 providers, which is impressive.  Less than a year ago, we were hoping for 1 vaccine in 12-18 months.  In fact, we are averaging around one new vaccine every month, with J&J to be followed by Novavax in Apr/May and Curevac in May/June (on top of the 3 existing ones).

I don't think the Valneva vaccine is anywhere close to being ready yet, it's still in phase 1/2 trials. It's apparently an inactivated whole virus vaccine though so there's some thought it might work better against variants. I think the UK increased it's order with the idea of using it as a booster in mind. 

[Maltaran]

15 hours ago, Xray the Enforcer said:

Word to the wise: those who have an angry disaster of an immune system, be mindful that your reaction to even the first dose might be intense. I just spent two days feeling like absolute shit.

Anecdotal evidence, the Oxford/AZ vaccine has a bigger chance of doing this than Pfizer. Me and my dad both had AZ and had 24 hours of general lurgy, Mum had the Pfizer and her only side effect was a sore arm.