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Covid 19 #26: Now is the Winter of Our Discontent


Fragile Bird

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29 minutes ago, Padraig said:

Can you share a link?  I've seen a few stories on this but those were referring to 3 or 4 after the first jab.  The only studies that have I have seen beyond 4 weeks were on the AstraZeneca vaccine (and we've known about that since December).

Same question I suppose. :)

This is an old article but on topic.

Yikes.  Do you know the percentage of people in Austria with the South African mutation?

It'll be ironic if they get the vaccine by increasing cases...but it doesn't work...

Edited to add: And if seasonality is a factor, variants are a much bigger factor, given the rise of cases in many countries again (although, I think reduced restrictions plays a role too).

I have no idea I must admit. You can still only leave Tyrol with a negative test(at least in theory) and the Germans are still doing border controls. That state had the most confirmed cases of that mutation in Europe at one point but I have not really followed the numbers because I'm trying the limit my news intake from that region of Austria because the regional goverment is the worst. The quarantine was implemented against their will and Bavaria started borders controls because they know how much we suck at enforcement I guess(both the regional and our federal goverment are not happy about it) .

The EU, Pfizer and Biontech are really interested in that study I suspect because the vaccine might be less effective.

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Does anyone know how many doses of Pfizer vaccine the UK has received? I’ve tried to look it up and I keep drawing a blank, which surprised me. Canada does a dashboard showing all the vaccine received and from which company, and how much we’re supposed to receive over the the next month or so. 

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5 hours ago, Padraig said:

Can you share a link?  I've seen a few stories on this but those were referring to 3 or 4 after the first jab.  The only studies that have I have seen beyond 4 weeks were on the AstraZeneca vaccine (and we've known about that since December)

 

https://www.bmj.com/content/372/bmj.n612

I was obviously getting a little confused, but not too badly. Looks like it reached maximum protection after 28-35 days, then plateaued, this pre-release summary doesn't say how long the plateau lasted, or how long after vaccination data was taken.

43 minutes ago, Fragile Bird said:

Does anyone know how many doses of Pfizer vaccine the UK has received? I’ve tried to look it up and I keep drawing a blank, which surprised me. Canada does a dashboard showing all the vaccine received and from which company, and how much we’re supposed to receive over the the next month or so. 

Sorry, I dunno

40 Million Pfizer doses ordered. (100M AZ, 17M Moderna, 250M from 4 other manufacturers)

21.5 million vaccines administered, but don't know the breakdown by manufacturer

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https://www.theguardian.com/music/2021/mar/03/dolly-parton-gets-vaccinated-with-moderna-jab-she-helped-fund

Quote

Dolly Parton burst into song on Tuesday as she received her first dose of the Moderna Covid vaccine that she helped to fund.

The country music star, 75, launched into an adapted version of one of her best-known hits, singing: “Vaccine, vaccine, vaccine, vaccine, I’m begging of you, please don’t hesitate. Vaccine, vaccine, vaccine, vaccine, because once you’re dead, then that’s a bit too late” to the tune of Jolene, which she wrote and recorded in 1973.

Dolly Parton for President. She'd win in a landslide (I dont know much about my fellow Americans any more, but this much I can guarantee)

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11 hours ago, RhaenysBee said:

I feel roughly the same as I did yesterday though I have better appetite and the lightheadedness is better. I have an odd feeling in my back but it’s unrelated to breathing so I suspect it’s down to sleeping and lying in odd positions. I’m still kinda nervous about what else might come or what else might be going on that I don’t register and I don’t dare to feel safe just yet

Sounds reasonably good to me. One possible word of caution, better not to exercise too much once you're back in shape, wait a couple of weeks before running a marathon or lifting weights. With covid, there's too often a nasty heart/lung inflammation that can last for a time.

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Seeking a vaccination appointment at a site within anywhere reasonable to my location -- I swear it is the classic NY grift of the shell game.

But maybe I'm getting a handle on how to look, which isn't ever any of the official, publicized sites.  I have some time now too, to be methodical about it.  Too much going on lately to even try method.  And when the day is 'over' I'm just too worn out to face it.

Not to mention dealing with everything that getting a new computer system entails, and then new modem and router -- at the same time there was a massive unannounced and kept secret internet outage that started at 1:38 precisely this morning.  Who knew either that one can't install one's own router now, but must call somebody to walk you through it.  That was fun.  Particularly when everything was finally working and connected and account made blahblahblah, and then the internet stopped Again.  And once again this all had to be foned and re-installed, and blahblahblah. And immediately had to hit zoom, and get that all configured to teach.  Anyway, all this is an example of what my days have been for a while, which why one feels too tired to even look for a vaccination appointment.

Such a complicated world with frustrations, petty and large, at every turn.  And I broke another plate too. argh.

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3 hours ago, Which Tyler said:

https://www.bmj.com/content/372/bmj.n612

I was obviously getting a little confused, but not too badly. Looks like it reached maximum protection after 28-35 days, then plateaued, this pre-release summary doesn't say how long the plateau lasted, or how long after vaccination data was taken.

Thanks.  That's very informative.

Even if that study hasn't gone as far as 12 weeks yet, if its still at 60% on week 8, its unlikely to collapse over the next 4 weeks.  I can see the logic of protecting 20m people at 50% compared to protecting 10m at 90%.  (The formula isn't that simple though, as the 10m people may be much more at risk of dying.  But I can at least see what they are doing!)

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Unless single doses lead to transmittability of the virus that is more than twice of those who get double doses (we dont know either of those numbers right now), in which case we would be extending the spread of COVID for a little bit longer.

Of course, the primary goal of the vaccine is protection of the individual and communal immunity is the secondary goal. However, I cant believe someone isnt crunching the numbers in some sort of macabre game-theoretic sense. Now we all know how the Coventry lot felt.

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5 hours ago, Chataya de Fleury said:

Right, just like when I was 40 and had mono...the doc told me that I REALLY needed to take it easy. And at that point, I’d been running a marathon every other week and training was running about 70 miles per week.

Mono hit me like a ton of bricks (as mono hits anyone who gets it at age 40) and my recovery workouts were “walk a mile a day” for a month, after I could stand to walk. And then I had to work back up to running.

With mono, your spleen can burst, but you’re no less dead than a post-covid heart inflammation (endocarditis, right?)

 

Mononucleosis is freaking scary and goes often as an unrecognized condition. A cousin got it when she was like 15. She lost that year in the school, was treated for depression and hormonal problems (she didn't get her cycle for like 6 months). There were days she couldn't get up from bed. Many people and even doctors didn't believe her, even her parents at times. They went a full tour through many doctors and hospitals and finally there was one who said that she should simply take it easy. He gave her a good dose of vitamins and recommended her yoga or a similar activity. The later saved her somehow as she could concentrate in small improvements instead of trying to go for a full recovery. She is fine now but the experience changed her.

and thinking about it, yes, there are many similarities with what we call now Long COVID.

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10 hours ago, Clueless Northman said:

Sounds reasonably good to me. One possible word of caution, better not to exercise too much once you're back in shape, wait a couple of weeks before running a marathon or lifting weights. With covid, there's too often a nasty heart/lung inflammation that can last for a time.

I’m not a huge exercise person anyway, so there’s no risk of that. I do think I want to get a whole extensive medical check up when I recover. To see what’s up on the inside. Not sure how I’ll be able to do that, what facilities can provide at this point. 

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I got mono when I was a HS Cross Country runner so I can relate to your story Chataya. I've never before or since experienced such overwhelming fatigue as that bout gave me.

On Covid news front over at the Worldometer site I see Brazil has again recorded more Daily New Cases than the U.S.

It's only a 2 day streak but it's breaking a many months long trend of the U.S. being number one in that dreaded distinction day after day after day for months. I would love to see us leave that distinction long in the rearview (fingers crossed emoticon here).

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11 hours ago, Padraig said:

Thanks.  That's very informative.

Even if that study hasn't gone as far as 12 weeks yet, if its still at 60% on week 8, its unlikely to collapse over the next 4 weeks.  I can see the logic of protecting 20m people at 50% compared to protecting 10m at 90%.  (The formula isn't that simple though, as the 10m people may be much more at risk of dying.  But I can at least see what they are doing!)

Now I'm on the computer, rather than phone, I can follow the BMJ link to the original (pre-print, pre-peer review) research.

Their latest data point is >6Weeks,

Immunity conferred by Pfizer plateaus in the 5th week (28-34 days) at 60-70% effective at preventing symptomatic disease in adults over 70 YoA. 2 doses raises this to 85-90%. Of those vaccinated AND developed syptomatic disease, there was a 44% decrease in hospitalisation and 51% decrease in death

Immunity conferred by AZ hasn't plateaud yet by that point, as of the 5th week (to provide side-to-side comparison)  it was 60-75% effective at preventing symptomatic disease in adults over 70 YoA. Not enough (if any) have had 2 doses to draw any conclusions (besides, it hasn't peaked yet, so doesn't need a booster). There is also an effect on hospitalisation and mortality rates, but not enough data to say how much.

 

These figures are in a UK context, where B 1.1.7 is comfortably the dominant strain. Lates data collection date was 21st February - which is <7 weeks after the first AZ dose given, and <11 weeks after the first Pfizer dose given.

My 80% effective at 8 weeks bit would have come from press over-simplifications (and probably a degree of faulty memory from having seen a headline several hours before writing).

ETA: reading further down the above PDF; it does say "Combining this with our minimum vaccine effectiveness against symptomatic disease estimate, would suggest that a single dose of BNT162b2 [Pfizer] is around 80% effective at preventing hospitalisation and around 85% effective at preventing death with COVID-19."
And
"We found that the ChAdOx1 [AstraZenica] vaccine reaches 75% effectiveness from 35 days after the first dose in those aged 70 years and older. This had not yet plateaued so we are not able to estimate the level of vaccine effectiveness that will be reached with this vaccine or the duration of this effect. As with BNT162b2 there was additional protection against hospitalisation suggesting vaccine effectiveness against hospitalisation of at least 80% following a single dose of ChAdOx1"
So not so much lazy/inaccurate press then. More that the research was completed after 8 weeks, but data collection finished after 6 weeks (AZ); and the 80% is their estimate of a slightly more relaxed measure of effectiveness (hospitalisation rather than no symptomatic disease)

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The Russian Sputnik V has applied today at the EMA, so they have all the data. It could be approved in April or  May ? J&J is set to be approved next week. AstraZeneca gets perhaps an approval for all ages now in Germany. They are citing new data , some Scottish study?

Apart from that we are cautiously opening now. Primary schools and day cares started last week, next week some stores (gardening and books) and all stores if your counties has a low case rate. Theatres, cinemas (with testing) and outside restaurants, bars and cafes to be open in three weeks if cases are not rising. No inside dining or hotels until at least middle of April. Every one can get a test at least once a week from now on. We have now a 50 % rate of the British mutation so it may be that none of this will be happening or last. But until now the third wave is only a little waveling and the hope is that all the quick and self testing will be enough to keep cases under control.

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16 minutes ago, JoannaL said:

The Russian Sputnik V has applied today at the EMA, so they have all the data. It could be approved in April or  May ? J&J is set to be approved next week. AstraZeneca gets perhaps an approval for all ages now in Germany. They are citing new data , some Scottish study?

See above, published 2nd March. Although yes, I think there was a similar one in Scotland (limited to AZ) in the last week or so as well.

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1 hour ago, JoannaL said:

The Russian Sputnik V has applied today at the EMA, so they have all the data. It could be approved in April or  May?

Very interesting.  Given how long it took it to get this far, I imagine it will take a while to get approved (although they are been helping by a German company R-Pharm, which may help).  Certainly worth a review though.  The Russian population itself isn't particularly keen to use it but if it works, it works (and Russian scientists are good).  The pressure would probably end up on the manufacturing side of things (although they are saying they can deliver 100m doses).  I wonder would the European Commission put in an order if it is approved.  A lot of geopolitical questions.

Good luck with re-opening.  I'm a little unnerved by the moderate increase recently (across Europe) but the ability to get tests once a week is great!

1 hour ago, Which Tyler said:

My 80% effective at 8 weeks bit would have come from press over-simplifications (and probably a degree of faulty memory from having seen a headline several hours before writing)

Thanks for all that.  Certainly a lot of info being released.  I'm glad a lot of it is positive news!

12 hours ago, IheartIheartTesla said:

Unless single doses lead to transmittability of the virus that is more than twice of those who get double doses (we dont know either of those numbers right now), in which case we would be extending the spread of COVID for a little bit longer.

Very good point.  I've seen a few studies start to appear on transmittability.  I imagine that will be the next big focus.

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1 hour ago, Which Tyler said:

See above, published 2nd March. Although yes, I think there was a similar one in Scotland (limited to AZ) in the last week or so as well.

Thank you, this may be the study they mean. 75 % is good (though not as good as the 94 % after two doses biontech) and it would simplify the vaccination roll-out . It is also discussed  here at the moment to extend the intervall of the Biontech vaccine from 21 to 42 days (which is the last possible day recommended by producer and ema) . After that no one knows yet, but the study you cite suggest that it at least doesnt help to wait longer with biontech.

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Today I’m coughing a little bit. It’s not major but it seems that the whole thing came back to the upper respiratory system in full circle. I also sneezed up some transparent gunk that I feel is irritating my throat. Otherwise I don’t (yet) feel worse. No fever, appetite’s fine, energy level and gastro symptoms are about the same as yesterday. Still I’m now freaked out again about what’s yet to come or how thus new phase is going to progress.... every day is like a kinder surprise egg with some shit “toy” instead of the figurine you’re trying to collect. 
 

we are also going into full lockdown for two weeks and people are pissed off. 

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Y’all, I am a teeny bit worried about my 78 yo dad.  I called him last night and he was peeved because he is currently quarantined.  A little context, my dad still works.  Full time.  And he goes into the office every other week because it’s the only way to get access to his lab (my dad is a physicist).  He and my mom are both fully vaccinated.  However, as he put it “some dumb kid” came into the lab and worked with my dad for a while and was later that day diagnosed with Covid.  This happened within the two weeks after the second dose.  My dad is excellent about mask wearing, and I know the lab requires masks, so I assume the kid was masked too.  And 2 doses + 9 days (that’s what it was) is certainly better than nothing.  But I”m still worried about him.

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39 minutes ago, Mlle. Zabzie said:

Y’all, I am a teeny bit worried about my 78 yo dad.  I called him last night and he was peeved because he is currently quarantined.  A little context, my dad still works.  Full time.  And he goes into the office every other week because it’s the only way to get access to his lab (my dad is a physicist).  He and my mom are both fully vaccinated.  However, as he put it “some dumb kid” came into the lab and worked with my dad for a while and was later that day diagnosed with Covid.  This happened within the two weeks after the second dose.  My dad is excellent about mask wearing, and I know the lab requires masks, so I assume the kid was masked too.  And 2 doses + 9 days (that’s what it was) is certainly better than nothing.  But I”m still worried about him.

It's much better than nothing! Of course, you are right to be worried as it's a real life exercise that we are making everyday and without a vaccine in our arms.  So, fingers crossed, let's trust the science and keep us updated.

 

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