Covid 19 #26: Now is the Winter of Our Discontent

[RhaenysBee]

I still have such weird symptoms even though I’ve been feeling all right for a couple days now. My feet get quite sweaty and my hands sometimes get very cold. Still no sense of smell or much sense of taste. And I do sometimes feel a bit unwell in the gut, which usually goes away quickly. Such a weird disease... 

And now my aunt isn’t well either, from what she said it’s likely covid and she’s getting tested tomorrow. I hope it’s not it though and she’ll be better soon. 

My father was a bit unwell after the vaccine for a couple days. Mostly tiredness and being slow, a bit of a headache and sore arm. He said it improved with rest. He’s supposed to get the second shot in three weeks. 

on the macro scale, the situation is awful. 7000+ new cases today, record number of hospital cases... I don’t know how this happened and so quickly. The restrictions we had since November weren’t lifted for a day. So how did it all get so bad so suddenly and quickly? 

I really hope that my mum gets any vaccine soon, I really do... 

[DireWolfSpirit]

Brazil is now the Worlds leader for new daily cases, pretty much outpacing the U.S. every single day for over a week now.

Also worldwide daily new cases are on the rise, the downward trend has reversed course and it is heading upwards on the charts again.

This is a very dangerous moment we've come to.

[A True Kaniggit]

14 minutes ago, DireWolfSpirit said:

Brazil is now the Worlds leader for new daily cases, pretty much outpacing the U.S. every single day for over a week now.

Also worldwide daily new cases are on the rise, the downward trend has reversed course and it is heading upwards on the charts again.

This is a very dangerous moment we've come to.

Sad isn’t it?

The vaccines are here. People just need to hunker down for a bit longer. 
 

But that’s not gonna happen. And people will die who didn’t need to. But that’s been the story of this whole pandemic, hasn’t it?

It just feels worse as things are coming to a close though. Like the last people killed in a war, just before the ceasefire started. 

[A True Kaniggit]

8 minutes ago, Chataya de Fleury said:

I can’t hunker. CANNOT anymore. My vaccine won’t be until...July? 
 

Im not stupid, though, and I do care about other people, despite what some may think.

I wear a mask in any store. I wear a mask in a restaurant unless actively eating or drinking. I used to limit myself to outside only, but not anymore. I wear a mask in the gym. In all situations, I try and stay 20 feet away from other people. I don’t go into crowded situations. And I don’t go to the office, so I don’t have any exposure to anyone who doesn’t share my risk level.

My bad use of the word hunker. 

I go out as well sometimes. While taking the precautions I can, like you. 
 

I’m bitching about my neighbor states. Texas and Mississippi. Who have opened up with no mask mandates.  No restrictions. 

[A True Kaniggit]

7 minutes ago, Chataya de Fleury said:

I don’t believe GA has any restrictions.

And the anti-maskers just did what they did anyways, so a “statewide mask mandate” makes very little difference. It probably could have made a difference 20 years ago, before there was instacart, Amazon, etc, but now, people who truly want to be isolated can very easily do so.

It makes a difference to business owners who would like to enforce mask rules. It’s easier with government backing. 
 

Edit: And what? A great many around here didn’t start wearing masks until it was mandated. And they will quit at the first opportunity. It does indeed make a difference. 

[A True Kaniggit]

Just now, Chataya de Fleury said:

Yikes. I apparently live in an area where most people don’t have to be coerced into doing the right thing. 

Lucky you. 

[Padraig]

3 hours ago, RhaenysBee said:

on the macro scale, the situation is awful. 7000+ new cases today, record number of hospital cases... I don’t know how this happened and so quickly. The restrictions we had since November weren’t lifted for a day. So how did it all get so bad so suddenly and quickly? 

Probably the variants.  The UK one seems to have spread significantly in Continental Europe over the last month.  Maybe some people got too relaxed when they knew vaccines were on the way, but the UK variant is much more contagious apparently.  So it's even more difficult to be careful.

Vaccines seem to handle it fine though, so better it than many other variants!

Hungary is using so many vaccines now that there should be some good news forthcoming (hopefully)!

10 hours ago, Fragile Bird said:

The EU doesn’t have to say, “give us vaccine from this plant and you can get EU vaccine later”, it should play harder ball than that, “you took 20 M (or whatever the number was) doses of Pfizer fro us, give those back now!”. 

Hmm.  Pfizer has kept its promises (overall).  I wouldn't abuse that relationship just because AZ haven't.

[Fragile Bird]

2 hours ago, Padraig said:

Hmm.  Pfizer has kept its promises (overall).  I wouldn't abuse that relationship just because AZ haven't.

Pfizer really short-shipped Canada when they were expanding the plant. It was reported here that EU countries got more, proportionally, than we did. I didn’t track it, that’s what was reported. So it may be Pfizer is on schedule in Europe. They are now promising a speeded up schedule here. If they are ahead of schedule in Europe you can’t demand more, but if the US took 20 M from Europe I don’t think it’s unreasonable to tell the US to give that back. Not Pfizer, the US.

[The Anti-Targ]

15 hours ago, Tywin et al. said:

These people are fucking disgusting:

https://www.latimes.com/world-nation/story/2021-03-06/idaho-coronavirus-mask-burning

Quote

“If a woman can kill an unborn child and it’s her body and her choice, I can decide whether to wear a mask,” a man shouted at the rally in Coeur d’Alene, a hub of the conservative northern Idaho panhandle.

Delightful people. I wonder what said man might say about having a 6-shooter in his hand playing Russian roulette, but holding the gun up to the head's of everyone he gets within arms length of.

I guess to extend the Russian roulette (apologies to Russians) analogy, if you stay in lockdown then you aren't doing Russian roulette to anyone. If you go out and maintain social distancing with a mask, it's 1 bullet and 5 empty chambers. If social distancing and/or mask wearing is not being practised, then it's more bullets and fewer empty chambers. If it's large, close crowds and no masks, then that becomes a different kind of shooting analogy.

[Mr. Chatywin et al.]

42 minutes ago, The Anti-Targ said:

Delightful people. I wonder what said man might say about having a 6-shooter in his hand playing Russian roulette, but holding the gun up to the head's of everyone he gets within arms length of.

That's called freedumb.

[Fury Resurrected]

7 hours ago, Chataya de Fleury said:

I can’t hunker. CANNOT anymore. My vaccine won’t be until...July? 
 

Im not stupid, though, and I do care about other people, despite what some may think.

I wear a mask in any store. I wear a mask in a restaurant unless actively eating or drinking. I used to limit myself to outside only, but not anymore. I wear a mask in the gym. In all situations, I try and stay 20 feet away from other people. I don’t go into crowded situations. And I don’t go to the office, so I don’t have any exposure to anyone who doesn’t share my risk level.

This is hunkering plenty and way more than a sad majority of people are doing. You’re doing just fine Chats 

[RhaenysBee]

9 hours ago, Padraig said:

Probably the variants.  The UK one seems to have spread significantly in Continental Europe over the last month.  Maybe some people got too relaxed when they knew vaccines were on the way, but the UK variant is much more contagious apparently.  So it's even more difficult to be careful.

Vaccines seem to handle it fine though, so better it than many other variants!

Hungary is using so many vaccines now that there should be some good news forthcoming (hopefully)!

Likely though it’s frightening to think how much more contagious they are and how much more damage will be done . And yes people certainly got lazy and tired by the time it was only more important to be vigilant. 

Well, time will tell. at this point it feels a bit hopeless even though we have all the vaccine deals one could ever have. Because logistically it still takes time to vaccinate the masses. And we are just racing against time at this point. And as someone very insightfully put it, everybody who contracts the virus now are the soldiers who get shot before the ceasefire and their lives may depend on days. That’s sad and scary. 

Meh, I’m just in a bad mood.
 

 

[Padraig]

3 hours ago, RhaenysBee said:

Meh, I’m just in a bad mood.

Now is the winter of our discontent!

Understandable. 

10 hours ago, Fragile Bird said:

If the US took 20 M from Europe I don’t think it’s unreasonable to tell the US to give that back. Not Pfizer, the US.

Its not viewed that way.  Factories in the EU are supplying countries worldwide.  It's all under contracts.  While Pfizer hasn't being perfect, it has done reasonably well for the EU.  Interfering with contracts will only lead to trouble in the long term.  (Why would you expand a factory in the EU if the EU could seize output, despite you generally living up to your contract?).  The problem with AZ is that it consistently hasn't delivered on its contracts (leading to immediate trouble).  (And Moderna seems to have run into some difficulties recently also).

[Fragile Bird]

1 minute ago, Padraig said:

Now is the winter of our discontent!

Understandable. 

Its not viewed that way.  Factories in the EU are supplying countries worldwide.  It's all under contracts.  While Pfizer hasn't being perfect, it has done reasonably well for the EU.  Interfering with contracts will only lead to trouble in the long term.  (Why would you expand a factory in the EU if the EU could seize output, despite you generally living up to your contract?).  

My point is that the US constrained supply to the world while grabbing doses away from the world.

Back in January my mindset was “just get through those 300 M doses, 100 M Pfizer and 200 M Moderna, and the US will ease up”. But instead the US locked up more doses, ordering hundreds of millions more. The US originally ordered 100 M from Pfizer and then, remember, the brief “scandal” was the fact Trump did not option another 100 M from Pfizer. “Oh my, oh my, Pfizer has already sold the next 100 M!” Screw that thinking, Biden just ordered more Pfizer and kept Trump’s EO.

One of the first major media outlets that drew attention to Canada was the NYT, making it front page news that Canada ordered enough vaccine to vaccinate the country 5x over, and the poor US only had enough for 1.5 or 2x. Really hilarious when you think about it, when you have the manufacturing plants and an EO in your back pocket.

[Fragile Bird]

Oh look, CNBC is finally doing a story about whether or not just vaccinating all Americans is the best way to protect from the US from Covid-19. The US will have manufactured 500 M doses by the end of May while COVAX will only have 180 M made for the rest of the world (I think that’s the number she used, I’ll see if they post it.)

And who are they pointing the finger at in terms of vaccine nationalism? Italy! Look at Italy preventing vaccine going to Australia! 

And they’re interviewing Dr. Scott Gottlieb who is defending the US position on Covid vaccine by saying Australia and Canada withheld flu vaccine from the US until they had to enough to meet local demand, so all this is just natural. Yessiree, boys and girls, it’s Canada and Australia who are the root cause of this!  Whaaaaat? The big flu vaccine maker is India, but another huge flu vaccine maker is Novavax, which manufactures in the US. This I need to look up.

And then Becky what’s-her-name has actually raised the issue that maybe after May, when the US is supposed to have enough vaccine for the whole country, the US will still keep all vaccine for booster shots. This didn’t even cross my mind!

Dr. Gottlieb is being soothing, though. The amount of vaccine being manufactured by the US is just so small it’s not all that important. The problem is the world wasn’t prepared.

I tell you, watching that interview was fascinating, in a kind of “watch the snake strike and swallow the mouse” way.

[JoannaL]

1 hour ago, Fragile Bird said:

My point is that the US constrained supply to the world while grabbing doses away from the world.

 

no, its all Italys fault...

But actually I also think the EU should not start a row with Pfizer. As far as I know, they delivered less than they should for three weeks in February, but are on schedule to deliver all promised doses till the end of March. Thats fine. Moderna had also recently some problems ? We didnt get any doses for four weeks now? But again, they promise to deliver all until the end of March, so ok. Its AZ which delivered only 25 % and will continue to underperform.

 

[Padraig]

22 minutes ago, JoannaL said:

Moderna had also recently some problems ? We didnt get any doses for four weeks now? But again, they promise to deliver all until the end of March, so ok.

We are being told of a 15% shortfall here for Moderna over a 3 week period (so small enough) but yes, we are supposed to catch up by the end of the month.  The official figures for Moderna are ridiculously low though.  2% of the vaccines actually given are supposedly Moderna.  I'm not sure I believe that.  Unless they are only ramping up now.

Even in April, I think it is supposed to be 53% Pfizer, 21% Astra, 14% J&J and 12% Moderna.  IIRC.  Given the size of the Moderna order, I find their numbers odd.

Supposedly 300m vaccines in total across the EU in Q2.  Maybe 60-70m in Q1.

1 hour ago, Fragile Bird said:

My point is that the US constrained supply to the world while grabbing doses away from the world.

Certainly countries are going to be a lot more focused on having manufacturing capacity in their regions/countries going forward.  The US is certainly helped by having big US pharma companies involved in delivering vaccines.  But in fairness, Operation Warp Speed also helped.  A lot of money was thrown at that problem.

[Fragile Bird]

36 minutes ago, Padraig said:

Certainly countries are going to be a lot more focused on having manufacturing capacity in their regions/countries going forward.  The US is certainly helped by having big US pharma companies involved in delivering vaccines.  But in fairness, Operation Warp Speed also helped.  A lot of money was thrown at that problem.

I do not dispute the fact that Operation Warp Speed got production up and running much faster than it would otherwise, especially for Moderna. This is, after all, Moderna's first vaccine, a helluva a way to start off! It's like the rookie baseball player called up in the fall standing at home plate, his first major league game, bases loaded, hitting a home run. An amazing feat. Perhaps that's why the Moderna has been delivering more vaccine in the US?All the Warp Speed money? I don't know what money they got in Europe. Actually, I don't know how deliveries in the US compare with deliveries in Europe, except the folks posting here are saying they've lagged. Certainly Canadian deliveries have been behind, but they are supposed to catch up. In fact, the comments are getting me worried, because perhaps some EU country will step up before the end of the month and block shipments to Canada if things in Europe are behind schedule?

I assume that the Warp Speed money has been spent improving facilities in the US only. Don't forget, Moderna created their vaccine in mid January, and had their paperwork for Phase 1 filed by the end of January, months before Warp Speed was created in mid-May. For a company that had never created a human vaccine before, I am astonished they ramped up so quickly in the US and in the EU. Well, so is everyone else.

Pfizer and BionTech got together in March on the Covid vaccine, they had already been working together on a flu vaccine.

My whole point about AZ is that the US Phase 3 hasn't come out yet, the vaccine hasn't been approved, and because of the Trump EO the EU has to come hat in hand asking for AZ vaccine to be released. The US will have all the vaccine it needs by the end of May, heck, they'll have everyone vaccinated by the end of May if they continue 2.5 M vaccinations a day.  It's just aggravating. Listening to that interview this morning suggesting the US might or should continue to hold back all vaccine for booster shots was pretty shocking to me.

[Zorral]

If the USA has All the Vaccine, why aren't people in NYC getting vaccinations?

Is it because the city and state government isn't doing any outreach to our sort of person at all? There are no centers around here.  The university hasn't reached out to us.  Our medical centers have not reached out to us. We can't even find out if our system has vaccine or is doing vaccinations.  Whereas, for instance, in other states, people places of employment schedule days and times for state health workers to come in and vaccinate.  Supermarkets have vaccination days. Their doctors' office call and give them appointments. And so on and so forth.

All we get here is hours long waits in the freezing cold at sports stadiums and Javits Centers and places one has to drive to -- not even serviced by public transport.  And no appointments.  You just go and stand, or if there is an appointment it turns out you stand for hours anyway.

BUT NEVERMIND, it's the greatest! Movie theaters are open! Indoor restaurants are open!  The streets are packed with ridiculous streateries which vehicles can ram into while the sidewalks now are never cleaned!  Everything is opening!  Hurray!  Why worry about getting vaccinated!

 

 

[Fragile Bird]

1 minute ago, Zorral said:

If the USA has All the Vaccine, why aren't people in NYC getting vaccinations?

Is it because the city and state government isn't doing any outreach to our sort of person at all? There are no centers around here.  The university hasn't reached out to us.  Our medical centers have not reached out to us. We can't even find out if our system has vaccine or is doing vaccinations.  Whereas, for instance, in other states, people places of employment schedule days and times for state health workers to come in and vaccinate.  Supermarkets have vaccination days. Their doctors' office call and give them appointments. And so on and so forth.

All we get here is hours long waits in the freezing cold at sports stadiums and Javits Centers and places one has to drive to -- not even serviced by public transport.  And no appointments.  You just go and stand, or if there is an appointment it turns out you stand for hours anyway.

 

I just don't understand how they can be so disorganized. Yet the US is now hitting 2.5 M vaccinations a day, so hang in there!