Jump to content

Covid 19 #26: Now is the Winter of Our Discontent


Fragile Bird

Recommended Posts

19 hours ago, IheartIheartTesla said:

I think its a combination of  being 60+, living in an urban area, and India ramping up its vaccine schedule

Yeah, my mother in India also got vaccinated last week. She's 58 with hypertension, but otherwise healthy. In Pune they're at 50+ with co-morbidities for 10 years that can get vaccinated. Regarding vaccine hesitancy - I wonder about this in countries where infectious diseases are still the norm, I feel like people are likely more willing to take a vaccine where infectious diseases still make up a significant percentage of morbidity and mortality ( which is something that is not the norm in most OECD countries like the US, UK, France etc), especially as in India we still have a high burden of TB and also see diseases like the Nipah virus now and again.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

2 hours ago, Luzifer's right hand said:

The number of new cases is rising again here in Austria as is the number of hospitalizations. 

The goverment plans to ease restrictions though. 

Yikes.  There are a lot of countries in Europe in the same boat.  With vaccines, you might hope that deaths are not climbing but they are edging up also.

We've been locked down since Christmas and numbers have come down very significantly.  We opened schools partly last week but otherwise, nothing much will change till at least April.  You'd really think countries would at least wait until they have significant levels of vaccines available before doing anything.  But sadly...

Link to comment
Share on other sites

A major hospital here in Toronto is at this very moment building a tent hospital on its grounds to deal with a 3rd wave, driven by variants. The numbers of the B.1.1.7 variant being reported keep going up. Of course, we hope it doesn’t need to be used, but since we have so few people vaccinated...    :dunno:

Link to comment
Share on other sites

47 minutes ago, Padraig said:

Yikes.  There are a lot of countries in Europe in the same boat.  With vaccines, you might hope that deaths are not climbing but they are edging up also.

We've been locked down since Christmas and numbers have come down very significantly.  We opened schools partly last week but otherwise, nothing much will change till at least April.  You'd really think countries would at least wait until they have significant levels of vaccines available before doing anything.  But sadly...

We opened day cares and primary schools two weeks ago and it didnt change a thing. Actually I think it is time for more openings. While cases are not falling any longer (mutation is now at 66%) it is also not rising significantly. Deaths are still falling and I think (and really hope I am not wrong) that this will continue. 40 % of our deaths used to be in nursing homes another 33 % were other over 80 years old. Since we have vaccinated these groups now I cannot imaging that the death rate rises again even if we open a little more. That does not mean that everyone should stop distancing or mask wearing, but going shopping or go to a restaurant outdoor should be fine.

We also got strange statistical data for the  excess death rates which I find quite shocking in a weird way:

Our statistical data show that we had around 3000 less deaths in February than in the average of the last 4 years. That is explained as follows: Though some people died of Covid, normally February is a flu/pneumonia month, and this year there was no flu season because of lockdown. So more people died of Covid but less people died of flu with a net "positiv".  the covid deaths are with lock down (while the normal flu deaths of an average year are without lockdown)  so the coronavirus is more dangerous than flu, BUT still are we not overdoing it ? Or are we not taking the flu seriously enough? Is it ethical ok to send children to school even if there is a sickness which might kill them (flu), while forcing them out of school for a sickness which is definitly not killing them? I am not so sure any longer...

In other news Pfizer /Biontech will deliver in the first quarter 4 mio doses more to the EU than promised (66 instead of 62). This is a pleasant change from normal news about deliveries...

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

36 minutes ago, JoannaL said:

In other news Pfizer /Biontech will deliver in the first quarter 4 mio doses more to the EU than promised (66 instead of 62). This is a pleasant change from normal news about deliveries...

Yes.  Very unexpected!  But a pleasant surprise for once. :)

Germany is one of the better countries for COVID cases, so I can understand the logic of opening up more.    Our opening of schools is in 3 steps.  So far so good, but we are only moving to step 2 next Monday.  Our government was badly burned by the huge spike in cases before Christmas though, so it is going to be very cautious.  But if things seem ok at the beginning of April, then they will look at things like construction, allowing people to travel beyond 5km etc.

The biggest challenge with schools opening is children spreading it to vulnerable family members (and teachers).  Every family is different though and I do agree that there is a huge benefit in opening schools.

Its very complicated.  The best argument for patience is the vaccines.  If we wait a little longer, the risk will fall a lot.  Somebody mentioned here earlier...who wants to be the last person to die during an epidemic!

I also think that cases in hospitals is probably a more tangible measure, especially as vaccines have an increasing effect.  The government is already flagging how cases amongst health staff and in nursing homes have plummeted after the vaccination rounds, so there is hope in the figures.

A COVID lockdown being similar to a normal flu year is an interesting way to look at it.  If we had faith that we could control COVID easier, it would be a lot more reassuring.  These huge spikes are frightening.  And there is a report today from the UK which says that the UK variant is up to twice as deadly.  I am surprised but then, we are probably better at treating COVID these days.  So the variant undermined that improvement in treatment.

But anyhow, i've no real conclusion here.  Slow and steady I suppose!

Link to comment
Share on other sites

40,000 appointments opened this morning at the Javits Center. Right on it. By the time I got one, within less than 10 minutes, there were less than 30,000 left.  And the appointment isn't until the middle of April.

I'm going to keep looking for something closer and sooner.  Because it's extremely difficult for me to do Javits, due to back troubles, etc.  And also because this means I can't be protected until the frackin' middle of May, while everybody else I know has been for months.  And I have to be inside a classroom before then after everybody's been down to Florida for spring break.  With more J&J supply very soon, thank you President Biden! -- maybe I'll get luckier.

Partner's appointment turned out to be real after all; it's today.

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

3 minutes ago, Zorral said:

40,000 appointments opened this morning at the Javits Center. Right on it. By the time I got one, within less than 10 minutes, there were less than 30,000 left.  And the appointment isn't until the middle of April.

I'm going to keep looking for something closer and sooner.  Because it's extremely difficult for me to do Javits, due to back troubles, etc.  And also because this means I can't be protected until the frackin' middle of May, while everybody else I know has been for months.  And I have to be inside a classroom before then after everybody's been down to Florida for spring break.  With more J&J supply very soon, thank you President Biden! -- maybe I'll get luckier.

Partner's appointment turned out to be real after all; it's today.

 

I'm glad you have managed to get an appointment, at least its something.   I hope you do manage to get one at an earlier date but it must feel good to know you are now booked into one at some point.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

1 hour ago, JoannaL said:

Or are we not taking the flu seriously enough? Is it ethical ok to send children to school even if there is a sickness which might kill them (flu), while forcing them out of school for a sickness which is definitly not killing them? I am not so sure any longer...

We have a vaccine against flu. Granted, not as effective, but still. Part of the yearly flu deaths is simply at-risk people who didn't give a damn about vaccine for whatever reason. Still, it's obvious that flu deaths are partly due to vulnerable people not taking it seriously enough. That said, a key difference is that apart from something huge like Spanish Flu, yearly flu hits way less people than covid; we got more people with covid with measures and lockdowns than on a normal flu year without any measure.

I hope Germany will be fine. I dread a bit a big wave, because it's the only major European country that hasn't been massively hit so far - most European countries who managed to avoid earlier waves have been badly hit recently.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

9 minutes ago, Pebble thats Stubby said:

I'm glad you have managed to get an appointment, at least its something.   I hope you do manage to get one at an earlier date but it must feel good to know you are now booked into one at some point.

Thanks.  But its frightening as hell with the f2f classroom and students.  Thank goodness it's only once a week -- but for nearly 3 hours.

I've been seeing happening for quite a while already: people who have gotten even a single dose, believe the pandemic is over and they no longer take precautions -- nor do they even care about others getting sick.  It's no longer on their radar of consideration.  Two more months to avoid getting infected is a very long time under these circumstances.

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

5 hours ago, Raja said:

 Regarding vaccine hesitancy - I wonder about this in countries where infectious diseases are still the norm, I feel like people are likely more willing to take a vaccine where infectious diseases still make up a significant percentage of morbidity and mortality ( which is something that is not the norm in most OECD countries like the US, UK, France etc), especially as in India we still have a high burden of TB and also see diseases like the Nipah virus now and again.

I have the opposite opinion, which is people in countries like India seem to think they are 'naturally immune' to infectious diseases having exposure to it constantly in their lives, leading to lower uptake of the vaccine. Or it could be the low number of cases has lulled everyone into a false sense of security. On the flip side, obedience of authority is still deeply instilled leading to high mask mandate compliance, and maybe voluntary vaccines arent the way to go.

As an addendum, my parents got their AZ shot, even though they were scheduled for the end of the month. Many places are walk in with 15 minute waits, for their age cohort at least.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

48 minutes ago, Zorral said:

I'm going to keep looking for something closer and sooner.  Because it's extremely difficult for me to do Javits, due to back troubles, etc.  And also because this means I can't be protected until the frackin' middle of May, while everybody else I know has been for months.  And I have to be inside a classroom before then after everybody's been down to Florida for spring break.  With more J&J supply very soon, thank you President Biden! -- maybe I'll get luckier

 

Have you tried directly calling local pharmacies rather than doing it over the web? Anecdotally it seems like booking over the phone -directly with the store's desk, not over a covid hotline - works far better than the ways we are actually supposed to book appointments. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

3 hours ago, Padraig said:

Yikes.  There are a lot of countries in Europe in the same boat.  With vaccines, you might hope that deaths are not climbing but they are edging up also.

We've been locked down since Christmas and numbers have come down very significantly.  We opened schools partly last week but otherwise, nothing much will change till at least April.  You'd really think countries would at least wait until they have significant levels of vaccines available before doing anything.  But sadly...

There is a growning and very vocal part of society that wants normalcy now. 

On the other hand they are trying regional quarantines in areas with a lot of new cases now. Most of these areas are ski tourism regions in the alps with only a limited number of roads and the police is only allowing people with a reason and a negative test out. As a side effect they have started uncovering illegal tourism. People have been getting very creative. Fake work contracts are the most popular approach it seems.

They also discovered a group of 19 Czech tourists that claimed that they are professional athletes(those are allowed to train). 

Looks like no enforcement and trusting the lodging providers did not actually work *surprised pikachu face*. 

Austria does not have enough police to make that approach practicable in lowland areas though. I actually live near a district that might hit the required incidence of 400 or more for 7 days soon. It is completely unenforcable though unless they use the danube as a border. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Regarding social mistrust of AZ: my mum keeps calling me every day with news of acquaintances who got it and are suffering terribly. Makes me wonder if people are just not prepared for side effects (Pfizer was administered to medical practitioners who are in general more aware you can get side effects and it’s normal, and to older people with weaker immune reaction) or is there really a significant difference between AZ and Pfizer.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

34 minutes ago, Filippa Eilhart said:

Regarding social mistrust of AZ: my mum keeps calling me every day with news of acquaintances who got it and are suffering terribly. Makes me wonder if people are just not prepared for side effects (Pfizer was administered to medical practitioners who are in general more aware you can get side effects and it’s normal, and to older people with weaker immune reaction) or is there really a significant difference between AZ and Pfizer.

I read that the Pfizer, Moderna and AZ vaccines have more side effects than flu vaccines. I dunno how they compare to each other. 

If I trusted anecdotal evidence I would also conclude that the AZ has far worse side effects though. People I know that got the Pfizer vaccine had next to no side effects and some people that got the AZ vaccine got side effects that required a day or two of sick leave. I have not read anything that backs that up though. They have stopped using batch of the AZ in Austria because of a death and a hospitalization but it seems unlikely that they are really connected but they have not ruled it out completly at this point. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

35 minutes ago, Filippa Eilhart said:

Regarding social mistrust of AZ: my mum keeps calling me every day with news of acquaintances who got it and are suffering terribly. Makes me wonder if people are just not prepared for side effects (Pfizer was administered to medical practitioners who are in general more aware you can get side effects and it’s normal, and to older people with weaker immune reaction) or is there really a significant difference between AZ and Pfizer.

I know few (quite young) people who have gotten the Pfizer vaccine and they said it was a different dimension in terms of side effects in comparison to any other vaccine (including the ones against Yellow Fever or shingles). I don't know about AZ besides what appears here and there in the news and social media, hardly any of good. Sinovac/Sinopharm vaccines seem to produce the milder symptoms, not unlike the flu shots.

ETA: I would have really expected (perhaps naively) more transparency in terms of what you expect as side effects. In medical terms "mild" are actually quite strong for most people.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

I think side effects vary. Some people have had almost no side effects from the Pfizer and Moderna vaccines other than a sore arm, some people have been sick for a day and a half. They’ve reported when they get over being sick they snap right out if it. 
 

There was a picture I saw on the internet or tv of half a dozen arms of people showing rashes and swelling around the injection site about the diameter of a coffee mug. Rashes like this are “perfectly normal” and fade away.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

2 hours ago, tzanth said:

Have you tried directly calling local pharmacies rather than doing it over the web? Anecdotally it seems like booking over the phone -directly with the store's desk, not over a covid hotline - works far better than the ways we are actually supposed to book appointments. 

Yes.  Also 3 other people starting last week have been doing refresh screen and calling on my behalf as well early in the mornings, like between midnight and 2 AM, another between 8 AM and noon.  (All of them are vaccinated, btw, and have been for quite a while.)

Link to comment
Share on other sites

I had my first dose of AstraZeneca today, and half a day later, I feel no side effects at all. I think I had a tingly sensation in my arm and hand about half an hour or an hour after the injection, but maybe I just imagined it. So I feel completely normal.

The whole process was also very well organised, there was no queue and they were working even a little bit ahead of schedule. Everybody who got there showed their health insurance card, had their temperature taken, got the shot and the confirmation about receiving the vaccine, and was told to wait for 15 minutes outside in case any side effects showed up.

I hope I don't get any delayed side effects tomorrow, but so far, everything is okay.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Archived

This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.

Guest
This topic is now closed to further replies.
×
×
  • Create New...