Jump to content
Sign in to follow this  
Fragile Bird

Covid 19 #26: Now is the Winter of Our Discontent

Recommended Posts

https://nymag.com/intelligencer/2021/03/why-dr-michael-olsterholm-delayed-his-second-vaccine-shot.html

 

Quote

 

...People are beginning to talk about having a normal summer. But before then, Osterholm believes, another surge will pummel the country.

“This big spike that went up and came down, it gives us this false sense of security that somehow, we’re in control. And we’re not,” he said. First of all, viruses are complicated and often tend to come in waves, he said—and we’re at a terrible starting point for another spike.

“Last summer, in July, 70,000 cases a day was a house-on-fire event in this country. Today, we kind of feel like we’ve won, and we’re at 70,000 cases a day,” he said. “We are right now more open to virus transmission than any time since March. Everybody is enjoying this new Covid-19 holiday. Governors have opened up virtually everything.” Yet in the past two weeks, new daily cases have stopped falling.

One major difference since last March are variants of concern. B.1.1.7, for instance, is about 40 to 70 percent more infectious and causes much more severe illness. It likely arrived in the U.S. in November, and now it’s in every state—and it is more than doubling every week. But there’s another big difference this March: extremely safe, effective vaccines that work against these variants. “The challenge we have right now is we have variants versus the vaccine,” Osterholm said—and the battle is also a race against time.

More than 54 million Americans are above the age of 65—the age group where 80 percent of the deaths occur, and the group most likely to develop severe illness that results in hospitalization, straining health care systems. About 41 percent of those 65 and up have been vaccinated so far, but they need to be prioritized even more, Osterholm said: “What we’re trying to do is protect as many lives as possible.” ....

 

 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

 

5 hours ago, JoannaL said:

But actually I also think the EU should not start a row with Pfizer. As far as I know, they delivered less than they should for three weeks in February, but are on schedule to deliver all promised doses till the end of March. Thats fine. Moderna had also recently some problems ? We didnt get any doses for four weeks now? But again, they promise to deliver all until the end of March, so ok. Its AZ which delivered only 25 % and will continue to underperform.

 

Sure, but when all 3 Pharmas underdeliver at some point, and when they all favour US and UK for deliveries, there's something fishy going on. I opt both for shenanigans from US/UK and for utterly shitty leadership in EU (von der Leyen being your typical useless incompetent Euro bot). But then, bad EU leadership is quite obvious, otherwise these idiots woud've built up their own capacities - not merely relied on Anglo companies having plants in Euro-land. I fucking hope this will change big time as soon as this mess is over, even if it means political leadership giving direct orders to their national pharma - these greedy assholes deserve it, frankly.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

In spite of the apparently plentiful supply we have here in the US, we are still pretty much in phase 1B in most areas, if I were to draw broad strokes over the US effort. Today is the first day 50+ with co-morbidities are allowed vaccines in Michigan, and it will expand to all 50+ on the 22nd. In terms of actual protection and community spread the most vulnerable are being protected, but there are wide swaths of population that arent.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
30 minutes ago, IheartIheartTesla said:

In spite of the apparently plentiful supply we have here in the US, we are still pretty much in phase 1B in most areas, if I were to draw broad strokes over the US effort. Today is the first day 50+ with co-morbidities are allowed vaccines in Michigan, and it will expand to all 50+ on the 22nd. In terms of actual protection and community spread the most vulnerable are being protected, but there are wide swaths of population that arent.

Lol, we just moved up vaccinating the 80+ from April 1 to March 15, great news!

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
53 minutes ago, Fragile Bird said:

Lol, we just moved up vaccinating the 80+ from April 1 to March 15, great news!

But I think the point that has been made a couple of times, and which is true, is that the US is still in a period of extreme vaccine scarcity rather than in oversupply.  While I certainly empathize with your frustration, I don't see why any US politician would export vaccine of any kind to ROW until people like Zorral and Chataya can easily get a vaccine.  You can certainly keep venting your frustration here, but it isn't going to change a single thing.  I do think, despite what some politicians are bloviating now, that you will see a different framework apply in May/June when we are in a phase of trying to encourage the reluctant to get shots rather than vaccinating the desperate.  But we will just have to see. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
8 minutes ago, Mlle. Zabzie said:

But I think the point that has been made a couple of times, and which is true, is that the US is still in a period of extreme vaccine scarcity rather than in oversupply.  While I certainly empathize with your frustration, I don't see why any US politician would export vaccine of any kind to ROW until people like Zorral and Chataya can easily get a vaccine.  You can certainly keep venting your frustration here, but it isn't going to change a single thing.  I do think, despite what some politicians are bloviating now, that you will see a different framework apply in May/June when we are in a phase of trying to encourage the reluctant to get shots rather than vaccinating the desperate.  But we will just have to see. 

My point was, what seems like a difficult situation for you is in our dreams for us! Just a little perspective.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 hour ago, Fragile Bird said:

My point was, what seems like a difficult situation for you is in our dreams for us! Just a little perspective.

I don't deny your frustration at all (I affirm it), but the reality is that you will be frustrated for a while longer I'm afraid.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
3 hours ago, Clueless Northman said:

Sure, but when all 3 Pharmas underdeliver at some point, and when they all favour US and UK for deliveries, there's something fishy going on. 

I don't know.  I think you have to go by the contracts, allowing for some flexibility.  Pfizer will apparently manage to hit their targets in Q1.  When Pfizer sent those doses to the US in December, the EU hadn't even approved the vaccine.

There is a Bloomberg article behind a paywall which says that Moderna was to deliver 10m doses in Q1 to the EU.  It was at 3.5m at the end of February.  That may not mean it is way behind schedule though, as it is supposed to deliver 35m in Q2.  So March could be its ramp up month.  And thus, it ends up with delays.  It would also explain why the level of doses given in Ireland are so small up to now.  3.5m for the whole of the EU is trivial!  

Moderna producing the vaccine in the EU was always going to be a challenge.  It had no presence here previously and little time to prepare..

I have pondered Sweden though.  AZ is supposed to be a British-Swedish company.  Where is the Swedish factory?

Anyhow, the EU did rely on Sanofi and Curevac and both have been very slow to market.  If one of them had come through, we'd be in a different position.  But it is hard to legislate for that.  But then Biontech is a German company and the Pfizer/Biontech vaccine was coming initially from Belgium.  The German government did give a lot of money to Biontech.  Should Biontech's factory (or is it 2 now?) in Germany have been up and running sooner?  There is a lot of questions and I wonder what role national governments have in answering them (not just the EU).

4 hours ago, Zorral said:

One major difference since last March are variants of concern. B.1.1.7, for instance, is about 40 to 70 percent more infectious and causes much more severe illness.

Does it?  I hadn't seen that before.

This is a good article from the Atlantic on the vaccines.  Its a difficult message to convey (i.e. they aren't all the same).  Without sounding like you are justifying people choosing a preference right now.

And more studies on variants.  The South African variant remains of concern.  Not so much the others.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
38 minutes ago, Padraig said:

Does it?  I hadn't seen that before.

I remember a few weeks ago there was a UK government press conference where they suggested there was some evidence that the B1.1.7 variant could be causing more severe illness, however that was based on preliminary data and I haven't seen any follow-up on that.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
38 minutes ago, Chataya de Fleury said:

Personally, I think vaccinating people who might have one or two years remaining on any actuarial table is ridiculous. My dad had two of these come in to the morgue not long ago. Fully vaccinated, both died of a fall and broken hip six - eight weeks after their last vaccine dose.

Vaccinating much younger people who might be permanently disabled from it get more bang for the buck, IMO, but I suppose politicians have to look like they “care”. 

I respectfully disagree with this.  I am quite grateful that my elderly parents got a vaccine.  Their life is precious to me and to many others.  While it is statistically vastly more likely that an older person will die of whatever cause, a younger person might also get hit by a car, or shot, or fall, or whatever and I am not about to make a moral judgment about whose life is of more value and whether any particular dose is “wasted”.  We should get everyone vaccinated as quickly as possible; I’m a big proponent of a straight lottery. But the choice to vaccinate by ages does not strike me as bad or wrong or incorrect.  Rather it is respectful of the time left of the most vulnerable.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Posted (edited)

I don't know if the site can share this image?

Daily New Cases in Wisconsin

Novel Coronavirus Daily CasesDaily New CasesCases per DayData as of 0:00 GMT+0Mar 12, 2020Apr 16, 2020May 21, 2020Jun 25, 2020Jul 30, 2020Sep 03, 2020Oct 08, 2020Nov 12, 2020Dec 17, 2020Jan 21, 2021Feb 25, 202102.5k5k7.5kDaily Cases3-day moving average7-day moving average
 
But it's the most gorgeous V shaped recovery possible.
 
Really hoping this holds.
 
Eta: rats it didn't post the image.
You'll just have to trust me (or look up Wisconsin's daily new cases graph).
It's truly a beautiful, beautiful chart!
Edited by DireWolfSpirit

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Has anyone else noticed a trend in people receiving their vaccine, and thinking themselves bullet proof 3 days later, and that lockdown rules don't really apply to them?
Even my parents (ex-nurse and ex-GP) are happily mixing with others (whilst condemning those others for bigger breaches; but mixing with them anyway) within a week of being vaccinated!

FFS people. The vaccine just doesn't work that way. It gives your immune system a kick up the arse; and gives it some protein spike to identify and recognise earlier next time.
It (single dose) takes about 5 weeks to build up to ~66% less likely to develop symptoms - and if you do, then ~50% less likely to be hospitalised / die.
As far as I'm aware, we don't know yet how much - or even IF - it reduces your chances of being an asymptomatic shedder.

After being vaccinated, you can still catch Covid; you can still catch it badly; you can still die from it. You can absolutely certainly still spread it to other people.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
13 hours ago, Fragile Bird said:

My point was, what seems like a difficult situation for you is in our dreams for us! Just a little perspective.

This reminds me that while I am in the US, my parents live in India and my brother and his family are Canadian citizens. My parents are due to receive the vaccine end of March (being in the 65+ age category) although they dont know whether it will be covishield or covaxin. Its a race between me and my brother, even though the US is ahead it may end up being close since he works or a university (they are still virtual, but maybe they get preference). He is also slightly older than me, so the 50+ trigger may also apply at some point. What a world we live in, eh?

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Posted (edited)
1 hour ago, Which Tyler said:


As far as I'm aware, we don't know yet how much - or even IF - it reduces your chances of being an asymptomatic shedder.

After being vaccinated, you can still catch Covid; you can still catch it badly; you can still die from it. You can absolutely certainly still spread it to other people.

Aren't you contradicting yourself here? If we don't yet how much or IF it reduces chances of being an asymptomatic shedder, then we cannot know with "absolute certainty" that you can still spread it to other people.

I think reality is somewhere between what you describe and people who think they are "bullet proof 3 days later." The experts in the USA have just said that while vaccinated people should still wear masks and avoid large crowds in public, the number of weeks you need to wait to consider yourself fully protected by the vaccine after the second dose has been reduced from three to two, and it is OK for groups of people where all of them have been vaccinated to get together in close quarters after those two weeks. 

Edited by Ormond

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Posted (edited)
22 minutes ago, Ormond said:

Aren't you contradicting yourself here? If we don't yet how much of IF it reduces chances of being an asymptomatic shedder, then we cannot know with "absolute certainty" that you can still spread it to other people.

Erm - what?

 

That may be the advise being given in the US - but equally, the advice for plenty of the US is that Covid is over; no-one needs to wear a mask, socially distance, or avoid restaurants.

Edited by Which Tyler

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 minute ago, Which Tyler said:

Erm - what?

Sorry, that should have been "how much or IF"

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 minute ago, Which Tyler said:

It's not the typo I'm questioning - but the logic behind it.

Why is that illogical? Being an asymptomatic carrier would be the way one would be shedding virus without feeling sick. 

And I don't know of any scientific experts in the US who are saying "Covid is over; no-one needs to wear a mask, socially distance, or avoid restaurants", just some idiot politicians. And it's the scientific and medical experts I try to pay attention to. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Slovenia is vaccinating teachers this week, so I am scheduled for my first shot of AstraZeneca tomorrow through my job. I am very surprised I got a date that early since I am young, but I am not complaining. They want to vaccinate as many teachers as possible to keep schools open even if a new wave comes.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Guest
This topic is now closed to further replies.
Sign in to follow this  

×
×
  • Create New...