US Politics: CPAC - Finding new ways to bring America to Rune.

[Maithanet]

While the Democrats going +2 in the Senate in 2022 is possible, that is a very optimistic result.  Even if the economy is doing well and Biden's COVID response is generally viewed favorably, it is still hard to imagine the Democrats do more than break even.  Democrats love dropping the ball when things are going well, and the idea that 2022 is super low turnout election where a relatively popular president gets punished (a la 2014) is very possible. 

 

[DMC]

12 minutes ago, Maithanet said:

Democrats love dropping the ball when things are going well, and the idea that 2022 is super low turnout election where a relatively popular president gets punished (a la 2014) is very possible. 

One thing about turnout is in the two states the Dems are most vulnerable - Georgia and Arizona - there are reasons to think this could be different than the overall atmosphere.  Arizona is a predominately vote-by-mail state now which mitigates turnout drop off.  And in Georgia, Stacey Abrams will almost certainly be running for governor, which should significantly boost Dem turnout compared to a baseline midterm.

There's also the candidates to consider.  Fetterman is likely to have an advantage in PA that outperforms the generic environment, and the same could be said if Roy Cooper runs in NC.  Of course, on the flip side, if Sununu runs in NH or Sandoval in NV (it should be noted he seems to genuinely love his current job as president of UNR), those are going to become very difficult races for the Dems.

[DMC]

So Biden is backing Congress' attempt to rescind the AUMFs:

Quote

In a statement to POLITICO, press secretary Jen Psaki said the president wants to “ensure that the authorizations for the use of military force currently on the books are replaced with a narrow and specific framework that will ensure we can protect Americans from terrorist threats while ending the forever wars.”

The olive branch to Capitol Hill marks the first time as president that Biden has publicly endorsed jettisoning resolutions passed by Congress a generation ago that have been used to justify military operations in places few envisioned at the time. The AUMFs include one passed after the Sept. 11 terrorist attacks and another passed in the fall of 2002 ahead of the U.S.-led invasion of Iraq in 2003.

Looks like this may actually happen.  Only 20 years later baby!

[Fez]

The senate just voted on a Sanders amendment to add the $15 minimum wage back into the bill. Since this was following normal procedures, rather than overruling the parliamentarian, there was a 60 vote threshold. This means it was doomed to fail, so maybe some Democrats voted differently than they would if it only took 50 votes. However, 8 Democrats voted against the amendment, suggesting its not just Sinema and Manchin.

 

1 hour ago, SFDanny said:

 Correct me if I'm wrong, but the change to limiting Gubernatorial appointments to members of one party is a method pushed by Republicans.

Only 6 states have it so far; 2 of them are Hawaii and Maryland. That was all Democrats. Maryland Dems changed the law to make sure Hogan couldn't appoint any Republicans. Not sure what the background is for Hawaii, it is the closest thing we have to a one-party state; even moreso than Wyoming or Idaho.

[Larry of the Lawn]

I'm hearing on twitter that in the negotiations the UI bonus is dropping from $400 to $300, but that the first $10k or so of UI will be retroactive tax free, which is pretty huge.  Overall UI will be extended to Swptember instead of August. 

[Mr. Chatywin et al.]

15 minutes ago, larrytheimp said:

I'm hearing on twitter that in the negotiations the UI bonus is dropping from $400 to $300, but that the first $10k or so of UI will be retroactive tax free, which is pretty huge.  Overall UI will be extended to Swptember instead of August. 

On that note, has anyone else gotten a letter that says their $600 check doesn't need to be considered when filing one's taxes?

[IheartIheartTesla]

I didnt, but stimulus checks aren't income (rather tax credits), while UI payments are considered income. Evil Turbo Tax^TM usually takes care of such pesky questions for me.

[Larry of the Lawn]

2 minutes ago, Tywin et al. said:

On that note, has anyone else gotten a letter that says their $600 check doesn't need to be considered when filing one's taxes?

No, but they're supposed to be exempt federally.  I think some states were trying to tax them though?  

[Mr. Chatywin et al.]

8 minutes ago, larrytheimp said:

No, but they're supposed to be exempt federally.  I think some states were trying to tax them though?  

I got one yesterday. 

What I'm more curious about is what happens with the unemployment benefits that took place during my near four month furlough. That alone could turn out to be a pain in the ass, but given some other personal developments in life, I think the best thing I'll ever say about 2020 is it was the last year my taxes were simple. 

[DireWolfSpirit]

8 minutes ago, Tywin et al. said:

I got one yesterday. 

What I'm more curious about is what happens with the unemployment benefits that took place during my near four month furlough

From what I've read, you"'ll be taxed on those unemployment checks, they will be considered part of your gross income.

[IheartIheartTesla]

Guys, I already answered this. My stepdaughter (who I helped file taxes this year) had to enter them in as income, ending up with her having a larger tax bill than she anticipated. Luckily, she was able to get the stimulus checks from 2020 as a rebate, so some of that was offset (she was claimed as my dependent last year, but not this year)

Moral of the story: file your taxes early this year.

[Fez]

14 minutes ago, Tywin et al. said:

I got one yesterday. 

What I'm more curious about is what happens with the unemployment benefits that took place during my near four month furlough. That alone could turn out to be a pain in the ass, but given some other personal developments in life, I think the best thing I'll ever say about 2020 is it was the last year my taxes were simple. 

My understanding is that, as of right now, one of the few good changes that the Senate made to the COVID bill is that the first $10k of 2020 UI payments will be retroactively tax attempt.

Not sure how that will work out for people who already filed their 2020 taxes, but hopefully it doesn't take too long for refunds to be issued.

[Corvinus85]

So now THE date is the 20th? At least they're skipping the Ides.

[Jace, Extat]

17 minutes ago, The Great Unwashed said:

Is this real video of Sinema voting down the bill?

If so, does she think this was her John McCain moment or some shit?

Also, what in the livered fuck is she wearing? That's the floor of the Senate, not a goddamn teenybop roller rink.

[Jaxom 1974]

Does the Mitch replacement shenanigans have anything to do with the possible hot water his wife is looking at? 

[Centrist Simon Steele]

3 hours ago, Fez said:

The senate just voted on a Sanders amendment to add the $15 minimum wage back into the bill. Since this was following normal procedures, rather than overruling the parliamentarian, there was a 60 vote threshold. This means it was doomed to fail, so maybe some Democrats voted differently than they would if it only took 50 votes. However, 8 Democrats voted against the amendment, suggesting its not just Sinema and Manchin.

Here's the list of the Dems:

"Democratic Sens. Joe Manchin of West Virginia, Jon Tester of Montana, Jeanne Shaheen of New Hampshire, Kyrsten Sinema of Arizona and Maggie Hassan of New Hampshire voted against proceeding, though the tally remains open. So did two close Biden allies, Chris Coons and Tom Carper of Delaware. Sen. Angus King (I-Maine), who caucuses with the Senate Democrats, also opposed it."

Fucking Dems--this wasn't getting by the Republicans anyway, and these assholes can't even pretend to support people living in poverty. 

 

[Fez]

22 minutes ago, The Great Unwashed said:

If so, does she think this was her John McCain moment or some shit?

Supposedly yes, but she was doing it as a joke reference. At least that's what an aide of hers claimed.

4 minutes ago, Jace, Basilissa said:

Also, what in the livered fuck is she wearing? That's the floor of the Senate, not a goddamn teenybop roller rink.

Clearly you haven't seen much footage of Sinema before. She regularly wears odd clothing and colored wigs and the like on the senate floor. One of her long-held stances is that "business attire" is outdated at best, and sexist at worst, and that clothing should have no bearing how seriously someone is taken.

Here's some other examples of her senate floor attire

I've got no problem with it, the senate could use a bit less stuffiness. And its completely separate from her annoying votes.

 

What I do have a problem with is that the senate floor votes have stalled out for over 3 hours now. Supposedly Manchin isn't on board yet even with the new UI deal, and there's a real chance he'll vote for Portman's amendment; which extends UI only through July 18 and doesn't have the retroactive 2020 tax break.

[IheartIheartTesla]

He is the Waldo Frey of American politics.

[Jace, Extat]

11 minutes ago, Fez said:

Supposedly yes, but she was doing it as a joke reference. At least that's what an aide of hers claimed.

Clearly you haven't seen much footage of Sinema before. She regularly wears odd clothing and colored wigs and the like on the senate floor. One of her long-held stances is that "business attire" is outdated at best, and sexist at worst, and that clothing should have no bearing how seriously someone is taken.

Here's some other examples of her senate floor attire

I've got no problem with it, the senate could use a bit less stuffiness. And its completely separate from her annoying votes.

 

What I do have a problem with is that the senate floor votes have stalled out for over 3 hours now. Supposedly Manchin isn't on board yet even with the new UI deal, and there's a real chance he'll vote for Portman's amendment; which extends UI only through July 18 and doesn't have the retroactive 2020 tax break.

I just became anti-Sinema. Never thought I'd see the day. Hopefully George and Steven were right after all.

It is a place of business. Dress appropriately.

[Fez]

2 minutes ago, IheartIheartTesla said:

He is the Waldo Frey of American politics.

It's some real WTF territory at this point. Although, it's also on Schumer for agreeing to a "deal" without apparently making sure Manchin was on board in the first place.

Of course, it's not a given that the Portman amendment could pass either; since that would require all 50 Republicans voting for it as well. And some of them are so opposed to UI even as a concept that it may be difficult to get them on board with voting for any of it, even though it's only for ratfucking purposes.