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A Horse Named Stranger

US Politics: CPAC - Finding new ways to bring America to Rune.

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I am also really happy that I've been able to make Manchin a unit of measurement, like an Osweiler being a measurement of height for college QBs

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8 minutes ago, Karlbear said:

unless they fuck a dead hooker on live TV?

And we've reached a new low

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Also, these poll numbers are absurdly remarkable. R Senators should be forced left and right to defend this whenever possible.

 

 

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Posted (edited)
21 minutes ago, larrytheimp said:

He's still a problem, he's just not one that anyone can do much about anytime soon.  Better than the alternative, but still bad.

Shouldn't it be that the voters of West Virginia are a problem, not one that anyone can do much about anytime soon, etc.?

It makes about as much sense to me to frame it that way as to frame Manchin as the problem.

Edited by Ran

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7 minutes ago, larrytheimp said:

He's still a problem, he's just not one that anyone can do much about anytime soon.  Better than the alternative, but still bad.

I don't see how, unless you're just reframing it like "oh, I wish the WV electorate was more liberal", in which case, sure. 

Manchin has worked hard to maintain a brand of bipartisanship and centrism, which allowed him to win a Senate seat in West Virginia in 2018.  West Virginia is, by partisan index, the 4th most conservative state in the country.  In 2018 and 2020 plenty of more liberal candidates have attempted to win Senate seats in red states.  If the partisan index was R+5 or less, then democrats had a mixed bag - win some (GA twice, AZ twice, OH) as lose some (FL, IA, NC).  But of the states that are more conservative than R+5 (and WV is a LOT more conservative), they have all failed, including some very good candidates like Jaime Harrison in South Carolina. 

The only ones to actually win were Joe Manchin and unsung hero Jon Tester. 

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Posted (edited)
5 minutes ago, Ran said:

Shouldn't it be that the voters of West Virginia are a problem, not one that anyone can do much about anytime soon, etc.?

It makes about as much sense to me to frame it that way as to frame Manchin as the problem.

Sure, I suppose in a representative democracy, it's always the voters and never the rep who are the problem.  I think that's largely a distinction without a difference.

Joe Manchin, the gestalt of WV

Edited by larrytheimp

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Just now, larrytheimp said:

Sure, I suppose in a representative democracy, it's always the voters and never the rep who are the problem.  I think that's largely a distinction without a difference.

I think it makes quite a difference in how one perceives the nature of the "problem", personally. The focus on Manchin is either political naïveté or political cynicism, but either way it obscures the actual reality of why we have these particular set of outcomes. The salient questions should be how to either make WV more liberal/progressive OR how to win elections somewhere else that diminishes the deciding role a particular WV elected official may have on the national scene.

It's especially salient to consider the latter because in all likelihood Manchin will be succeeded by a Republican when he choses to not run again.

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1 hour ago, Centrist Simon Steele said:

I also think this is a false narrative and a Democrat could be elected [in WV] and not have to pretend to be Republican.

The 2020 election, in which West Virginia's other (Republican) senator defeated her Democratic rival by about 43%, suggests otherwise.

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2 minutes ago, Ran said:

It's especially salient to consider the latter because in all likelihood Manchin will be succeeded by a Republican when he choses to not run again.

Democrats definitely need to be facing the reality that there's a good chance both Manchin and Tester's seats will be Republican after 2024 (whether they run or not).  So bad as the Senate map and math looks now, there's a good chance it'll be even worse soon. 

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7 minutes ago, Karlbear said:

Alternately, when you have just the barest grasp of power, the idea that you should reject the reason you have that grasp because it's not enough is really stupid. 

The US isn't going to realize that 'killing the poor' is a bad platform for a long, long time. Either accept that or get used to never getting anything you want, ever. Those are your options. 

As opposed to what, a Republican senator in WV who has zero reason to play ball ever with Dems and will be re-elected easily unless they fuck a dead hooker on live TV?

I mean, really - what are your options here? You're not going to get a very progressive or even mildly progressive candidate elected in West Virginia when they're like Trump +25. You'll just keep losing that over and over again. You have two basic options - go with a dem who can win in a state like WV and may not play ball all the time, or go with a GOP candidate who will never talk to you and will actively encourage people to kill you. Again, those are your options. You may not like them but that's what you got. 

The point is that eventually, you aren't going to have even the barest margin of power because every time you manage to overcome the inherently undemocratic nature of the Senate, you get handcuffed by someone who cares more about his damned reputation and posturing than he does about actually achieving the stated goals of the Democratic party, and not even my wing of the party, we're talking the fucking establishment's stated goals. If you are unable to effectively wield that power, it will be taken away from you.

There is the old quote that is attributed to LBJ, that "It's probably better to have him inside the tent pissing out than outside the tent pissing in." but at a certain point, Manchin is in the tent and just spinning in circles spraying piss both inside and outside the tent.

We're going to lose that seat, it's not a question of if, it's a question of when, and when that happens, what will we have to show for Joe Manchin's time in the senate? Just stopping Republicans is not enough, we have to actually govern in a way that gives Democrats real accomplishments they can run on in 2022 and 2024.

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3 minutes ago, Maithanet said:

Democrats definitely need to be facing the reality that there's a good chance both Manchin and Tester's seats will be Republican after 2024 (whether they run or not).  So bad as the Senate map and math looks now, there's a good chance it'll be even worse soon. 

Which is why it's imperative to maximize the opportunities they have this cycle - PA, OH, WI, NC.  Right now, that means recruiting the best possible candidates.

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1 minute ago, GrimTuesday said:

We're going to lose that seat, it's not a question of if, it's a question of when, and when that happens, what will we have to show for Joe Manchin's time in the senate?

There's this pretty big bill that's about to be passed.

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Posted (edited)
3 minutes ago, DMC said:

There's this pretty big bill that's about to be passed.

Yes, and it is a good bill in spite of Joe Manchin doing everything he could to knock holes in it. If he had his way, we'd be looking at the 2008 recovery bill all over again.

Edited by GrimTuesday

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5 minutes ago, GrimTuesday said:

Yes, and it is a good bill in spite of Joe Manchin doing everything he could to knock holes in it. If he had his way, we'd be looking at the 2008 recovery bill all over again.

I think he did have his way, and we're not looking at the 2008 recovery bill...

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5 minutes ago, GrimTuesday said:

Yes, and it is a good bill in spite of Joe Manchin doing everything he could to knock holes in it. If he had his way, we'd be looking at the 2008 recovery bill all over again.

It's good politics for him at home, and again, we need his seat even if he can be a pain in the ass now and then. This is still one of the most progressive bills ever passed and we should be celebrating, not looking for reasons to complain. 

And it's official, though there was no doubt.

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7 minutes ago, GrimTuesday said:

Yes, and it is a good bill in spite of Joe Manchin doing everything he could to knock holes in it. If he had his way, we'd be looking at the 2008 recovery bill all over again.

First, as Ran said, the concessions to Manchin were incredibly minor substantively and almost entirely about him looking like he had influence.  Biden asked for $1.9 trillion and got $1.9 trillion.  And if we didn't have his vote, did you see the 10 "moderate" GOP Senators' proposal we'd have to negotiate with?

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2 hours ago, Zorral said:

Good to see the left making inroads into the state party apparatus, however, it’s disappointing to see establishment Democrats taking their ball and going home. I’m not sure how that’s supposed to help Nevada.

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41 minutes ago, Ran said:

I think he did have his way, and we're not looking at the 2008 recovery bill...

Yeah, the crazy thing about Manchin is that he is extraordinarily liberal compared to the moderate Democratic senators in 2009. Look at his demands, and then look at what senators like Nelson and Lieberman demanded during the ACA negotiations. It's night and day.

And Manchin said on Sunday he was open to an enormous infrastructure bill, up to $4 trillion even, so long as it's paid for with increased taxes on corporations and the wealthiest 1% (as opposed to just borrowing). I think there's less than 15 Democratic senators who would've been open to that in 2009.

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Why is the bill being signed Friday and not today or early tomorrow? In terms of PR, Friday releases are terrible. You could dominate news for couple cycles at least with an earlier signing ceremony.

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