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YeniAy_Ottoman

Iron Bank, Stannis and Cersei

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Hello again,

In the last two books published, there are some points that are not very noticeable. I think that these points may emerge with the sixth book and we will continue to see its effect.

We read in the 4th and 5th books, Jon and Cersei talked with the representatives of the Iron Bank, and in the 6th book, Cersei sent a man of her own representative to ask for more money from the bank, and a representative from the same bank also made an agreement with Stannis.

Let's remember these scenes.

Cersei

Quote

"Though large, the crown incomes are not large enough to keep abreast of Robert's debts. Accordingly, I have decided to defer our repayment of the sums owed the Holy Faith and the Iron Bank of Braavos until war's end." The new High Septon would doubtless wring his holy hands, and the Braavosi would squeak and squawk at her, but what of it? "The monies saved will be used for the building of our new fleet."
"Your Grace," Pycelle said in a quavering voice, "this will cause more trouble than you know, I fear. The Iron Bank . . ."
". . . remains on Braavos, far across the sea. They shall have their gold, maester. A Lannister pays his debts."
"The Braavosi have a saying too." Pycelle's jeweled chain clinked softly. "The Iron Bank will have its due, they say."
"The Iron Bank will have its due when I say they will. Until such time, the Iron Bank will wait respectfully.."

Pycelle warned her wisley but she doesn't want to see.

Quote

Noho Dimittis, the Braavosi named himself. An irritating name for an irritating man. His voice was irritating too. Cersei shifted in her seat as he went on, wondering how long she must endure his hectoring. Behind her loomed the Iron Throne, its barbs and blades throwing twisted shadows across the floor. Only the king or his Hand could sit upon the throne itself. Cersei sat by its foot, in a seat of gilded wood piled with crimson cushions.
When the Braavosi paused for breath, she saw her chance. "This is more properly a matter for our lord treasurer."
That answer did not please the noble Noho, it would seem. "I have spoken with Lord Gyles six times. He coughs at me and makes excuses, Your Grace, but the gold is not forthcoming."
"Speak to him a seventh time," Cersei suggested pleasantly. "The number seven is sacred to our gods."
...
"King Robert—"
"—is dead," she said sharply. "The Iron Bank will have its gold when this rebellion has been put down."
He had the insolence to scowl at her. "Your Grace—"
"This audience is at an end." Cersei had suffered quite enough for one day. "Ser Meryn, show the noble Noho Dimittis to the door. Ser Osmund, you may escort me back to my apartments."

As you can see, the meeting with the representative is not going well, probably the man felt humiliated. Nobody can call the Braavos people has no pride, I guess. They are fond of debt and honor to pay even the ships they stole from Valyria years ago. They are not people to act emotionally, no doubt, as long as they collect their debts. There is no doubt that Noho's report to the bank will be negative.

Kevan/Harry and Braavos

Quote

"The magisters of Pentos have been known to lend money as well," said Ser Kevan... "If that fails, you may well need to go to Braavos, to treat with the Iron Bank yourself."
Ser Harys quailed. "Must I?"
"You are the master of coin," Lord Randyll said sharply.
"I am." The puff of white hair at the end of Swyft's chin quivered in outrage... Ser Harys Swyft tugged at his chin beard. "I am in need of guards myself. These are perilous times."
"Hire the Mountain's men," Ser Kevan suggested. "Red Ronnet will have no further use for them."

Jon ve Braavos

Quote

"And here we have the honorable Tycho Nestoris, an emissary of the Iron Bank of Braavos, come to treat with His Grace King Stannis."
The banker doffed his hat and made a sweeping bow. "Lord Commander. I thank you and your brothers for your hospitality." He spoke the Common Tongue flawlessly, with only the slightest hint of accent. Half a foot taller than Jon, the Braavosi sported a beard as thin as a rope sprouting from his chin and reaching almost to his waist. His robes were a somber purple, trimmed with ermine. A high stiff collar framed his narrow face. "I hope we shall not inconvenience you too greatly."
...
A debt." What else could it be? "His own debt? Or his brother's?"
The banker pressed his fingers together. "It would not be proper for me to discuss Lord Stannis's indebtedness or lack of same. As to King Robert … it was indeed our pleasure to assist His Grace in his need. For so long as Robert lived, all was well. Now, however, the Iron Throne has ceased all repayment."
Could the Lannisters truly be so foolish? "You cannot mean to hold Stannis responsible for his brother's debts."
"The debts belong to the Iron Throne," Tycho declared, "and whosoever sits on that chair must pay them. Since young King Tommen and his counsellors have become so obdurate, we mean to broach the subject with King Stannis. Should he prove himself more worthy of our trust, it would of course be our great pleasure to lend him whatever help he needs."

The representative gives a remarkable detail about “time”.

Quote

"Winter is nigh upon us. The day I left Braavos, there was ice on the canals."

Stannis ve Braavos

Quote

The king's voice was choked with anger. "You are a worse pirate than Salladhor Saan... My brother's debts," the king was muttering. "Joffrey's too, though that baseborn abomination was no kin to me." Theon twisted in his chains. He knew that voice. Stannis.
"Your Grace," a second voice said softly. "Pardon, but your ink has frozen." The Braavosi, Theon knew. What was his name? Tycho... Tycho something... "Perhaps a bit of heat... ?"
"I know a quicker way." Stannis drew his dagger. For an instant Theon thought that he meant to stab the banker. You will never get a drop of blood from that one, my lord, he might have told him. The king laid the blade of the knife against the ball of his left thumb, and slashed. "There. I will sign in mine own blood. That ought to make your masters happy."
"If it please Your Grace, it will please the Iron Bank."
Stannis dipped a quill in the blood welling from his thumb and scratched his name across the piece of parchment. "You will depart today. Lord Bolton may be on us soon. I will not have you caught up in the fighting."
"That would be my preference as well." The Braavosi slipped the roll of parchment inside a wooden tube. "I hope to have the honor of calling on Your Grace again when you are seated on your Iron Throne."
"You hope to have your gold, you mean. Save your pleasantries. It is coin I need from Braavos, not empty courtesy. Tell the guard outside I have need of Justin Massey."
"It would be my pleasure. The Iron Bank is always glad to be of service." The banker bowed.

Timing

Though we are not 100% sure about the accuracy of the timeline prepared by the fans, by thinking that it has made almost close determinations ... 

In KL, the bank's representative waits for two weeks and he has been send back around March. In the 4th month, Arya meets (as the Cat of the Channels) and Sam in Braavos. In the 7th month, Jon meets with the representative (Selyse also arrives) and at the earliest week of the 8th month, the representative meets with Stannis and signs the agreement. At the end of this month, Jon is dead. It is estimated that Arya's last POV is towards the end of the 6th month (Little Ugly Girl). [Later is Mercy POV(we do not know the time).] Again, it seems that Kevan is dying later in this month.

( I have to specify. I did not read it personally, but a friend of mine saw and said. GRRM would make some adjustments to Braavos' timing. I think there is some mismatch in timing. He had to fix this.)

Here are the points that draw attention from the above issues.

  • Cersei, by talking with the representative, stops the payments and uses the excuse for "revolt".
  • Kevan tells Harry to go to Braavos. "Hold the men of the Mountain," he says. We assume that he left after Kevan's death and Cersei's trial.
  • When the representative comes to the wall, he tells Jon, "There was ice in the channels," and he says that the throne has stopped payments.
  • Stannis signs the agreement with Braavos. And the representative says that he wants to see him on the throne. "To get your gold," Stannis answers.

Now we will talk a little more about timing.

In the 4th book (AFoC) book we saw in Jaime POV that "snow" started to rain on the river lands. We know that Arya also saw this through Nymeria.

Then we see that in the chapter of Kevan, it started to snow in KL. At least one or two months between Jaime POV. (But still the fall)

The three men walked together from the throne room. Outside the snow was swirling round the outer ward, a caged beast howling to be free.

Kevan again.

Quote

 

The snow had finally stopped falling. Behind a veil of ragged clouds, a full moon floated fat and white as a snowball.

There is a full moon in the sky.

 

Winter Winds, Mercy POV .... We see Harry coming to Braavos with the men of the Mountain. At the beginning of POV, she also gives us information that helps with time.

There had been blood in it, though, and a full moon overhead, and a tree that watched her as she ran.

There is a full moon in the sky again. So there is about (at least) a month between Kevan POV and Mercy POV.

 

Quote

She had filled her basin from the canal last night before she went to sleep, preferring the brackish water to the slimy green rainwater stewing in the cistern out back.
...
even the Titan's bronze shoulders, off across the dark green waters.
...
His words echoed hollowly off the swirling green waters and the walls of unseen buildings.
....
She could see the green water of the little canal below

 

We have not seen "ice" in the channels in any previous POV of Arya, including Mercy POV; channels and waters are always described as "normal-green". The weather is also generally foggy, cold and damp in Braavos where there is a lot of fog in the last Mercy POV.

In summary, the last Arya POV did not have any snow or the channels did not press cold enough to keep ice in Braavos; which means that Tycho has not left Braavos yet.

Mercy decides to kill Raff and kills. After saying this, it draws attention to an important point.

Quote

"Mercy, Mercy, Mercy," she sang sadly. A foolish, giddy girl she'd been, but good hearted. She would miss her, and she would miss Daena and the Snapper and the rest, even Izembaro and Bobono. This would make trouble for the Sealord and the envoy with the chicken on his chest, she did not doubt.

Mercy probably portrays the character of Shae; She's been talking about rape and murder since the beginning of POV… She talks too much about it. If we look at what Mercy says, why would Mercy's disappearance cause problems for the Envoy and the Sea Lord?

Because they will think that something Mercy has said has happened since the beginning of the chapter.

They last saw Mercy with Raff. Even Daena said they were "wild" she should to avoid these guys.

Quote

"... And Westerosi. They're terrible savages, Mercy. Best stay well away from his sort."

Some time after the theater is over, no one will be able to find Sweet Raff and Mercy. They will go to the girl's house and see the “bloody floor”. They will think the worst. It is likely that both sides will blame each other (rape-murder, etc.), which will cause tension between the Braavos and Westeros.

More precisely, this probably happened, we haven't read it yet, and we've seen its effect in the 5th and 6th books - we will continue to see it.

Cersei has already refused to give the money, demanding more money on top. As if these were not enough, one of the men of the Westeros ambassador raped and killed a girl from Braavos, and he fled. The ambassador's "demand for money" issue will not be able to achieve any result with all this ... As a result, Braavos' Iron Bank decided to take action against the throne and therefore sent an envoy to Stannis.

Quote

"The Braavosi have a saying too." Pycelle's jeweled chain clinked softly. "The Iron Bank will have its due, they say."
...
The Iron Bank will have its due, it is said. Those who borrow from the Braavosi and fail to repay their debts oft have cause to rue such folly, for the Bank has been known to topple lords and princes and has also been rumored to send assassins against those it cannot remove (though this has never been conclusively proved).

It would be a correct inference to say that the Iron Bank acted against the throne after the Cersei and the envoy issue. As a result, the bank does not want to take risks by giving money to the borrower's enemy, while trying to get back its own money. If the bank took action, the only reason for this is because they decided to take action against Cersei.

When we look at his conversation with Stannis, we already see the “opponent support” event. He talks about his brother's and Joffrey's take debts from Braavos. When Stannis came to the throne, he promised money that he would pay the debts of the "throne" and signed the agreement.

Quote

 

"The debts belong to the Iron Throne," Tycho declared, "and whosoever sits on that chair must pay them. Since young King Tommen and his counsellors have become so obdurate, we mean to broach the subject with King Stannis. Should he prove himself more worthy of our trust, it would of course be our great pleasure to lend him whatever help he needs."

...

You are a worse pirate than Salladhor Saan...
"I hope to have the honor of calling on Your Grace again when you are seated on your Iron Throne."
"You hope to have your gold, you mean

 

What happens when Stannis dies? Will Braavos support Aegon and Dany? As a result, candidates who want the throne and they will need money either way or another. Braavos had previously made agreements with Targaryen and his dragons. Despite this, can he send an "assassin" instead of spending more money? Can we see they will send one of the FMs and see Tommen die that way? Or his big sister? 

Result? Stannis should thanks to Arya. :D 

Also another detail ... Stannis already has an arc linked to (F) Arya and the north, but we see that the real Arya also has an arc linked to Jon, the north, and Stannis. The story and the characters are intertwined, even though they are physically distant from each other. And Arya somehow managed to put a stick in Cersei's wheel. Well done girl! :thumbsup:

Thank you for read.

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I think the Iron Bank is more sinister than GRRM has shown us yet.

Id guess IB is loaning out gold to anybody willing to remove Cersei. Why wouldnt they do that just to cover all bases?

I wouldnt be surprised if they had a hand in starting the war itself. LF is a candidate to be a secret IB agent given his ties to Braavos and his part in shit stirring before and during the war.

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6 minutes ago, Ephraim'sFruit said:

I think the Iron Bank is more sinister than GRRM has shown us yet.

Id guess IB is loaning out gold to anybody willing to remove Cersei. Why wouldnt they do that just to cover all bases?

I wouldnt be surprised if they had a hand in starting the war itself. LF is a candidate to be a secret IB agent given his ties to Braavos and his part in shit stirring before and during the war.

The idea that LF is related to Braavos is interesting, why not? Still, for Braavos, the war may not be very beneficial at some point. Of course, war requires money in the first stage. This shows that they will lend at interest and make a profit. By contrast, Robert himself is someone who spends more money than a war… If Braavos supports all the candidates for the throne when war breaks out, it is harm for them. Which candidate will win, how do you know? In other words, the idea of war is a profitable situation in the first stage, but it is a risky situation in the next stages. The important thing for Braavos now is to get back their debt, and Stannis is the best supported candidate for this. He agreed to repay that money. 

And Braavos would never have supported Stannis if Cersei had not refused to pay money and Arya's move had not been made.

In fact I take it for granted that Stannis will die in book 6, so he will never use that money. Would Jon take advantage of this money instead?

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Im assuming theyve figured out some form of fractional reserve by now.

So that means the gold they loan out to Stannis or anybody doesnt have to exist, they can just create it out of thin air and give Stannis a bank note that says "good for X amount of money backed by the Iron Bank" or whatever they use for that.

So if Stannis loses the war, that "gold" they loaned him out isnt a loss for them. 

What they want is to have whoever it is sitting on the throne to be eternally in debt to them and pay their bill every month or whatever the schedule is. 

Id guess they support Stannis the most because they see him as somebody who is capable and will keep his word. But why not loan out gold to the other factions too just in case Stannis loses you still have the winner in debt to you.

I really dont have a motive for them wanting to start the wo5ks other than some sort of general war profiteering they may be involved in. Its a somewhat far fetched speculation, granted. 

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2 hours ago, Ephraim'sFruit said:

Im assuming theyve figured out some form of fractional reserve by now.

So that means the gold they loan out to Stannis or anybody doesnt have to exist, they can just create it out of thin air and give Stannis a bank note that says "good for X amount of money backed by the Iron Bank" or whatever they use for that.

So if Stannis loses the war, that "gold" they loaned him out isnt a loss for them. 

What they want is to have whoever it is sitting on the throne to be eternally in debt to them and pay their bill every month or whatever the schedule is. 

Id guess they support Stannis the most because they see him as somebody who is capable and will keep his word. But why not loan out gold to the other factions too just in case Stannis loses you still have the winner in debt to you.

I really dont have a motive for them wanting to start the wo5ks other than some sort of general war profiteering they may be involved in. Its a somewhat far fetched speculation, granted. 

I do not think this claim has any basis. When you say reserve, things like a gold mine, right? There is no information that Braavos has mines because it is not a very suitable place geographically for such a thing. Even Braavos coins iron, possibly even they import iron. They even import the trees.

I don't think Braavos works like the IMF. I did not see any signs in the books for the purpose of keeping people in debt for life.

There is no such information in the history of Braavos.

Braavos decided to support Stannis, but did not support him or the other candidates before, why? Because the throne was paying its debt. When the throne stopped paying its debt and the events I wrote above happened, Braavos also began to take action against the throne. If Stannis proves worthy of their trust, Tyhco had said, they'll help. So he proved it and the agreement was signed.

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7 hours ago, YeniAy_Ottoman said:

snip

Nice read. Here is what I think is going on:

Illyrio is working with Littlefinger in a plot to bring down the Iron Bank. This will collapse the Braavosi economy and Pentos can tear up the peace treaty it signed after their last war, the one that prohibits Pentos from having its own army and keeps men like Illyrio from slaving.

What appears to be Littlefinger's financial genius is nothing more than him being bankrolled by Illyrio. At the same time, he is borrowing massive sums from the IB and others, and then redepositing that money under a series of proxy accounts. Now, with LF no longer MoC and the crown's coffers dry, it cannot pay back its loans. These amounts are likely to be far larger than anything loaned to one of the Free Cities because the crown represents an entire continent, not just a single city. At the same time, the tried and true strategy of just getting rid of one deadbeat ruler and putting another in its place does not work in Westeros. Here, the king must have a legitimate claim to the throne, or else someone has to reconquer all seven great houses all over again -- something it took AtC a good six years to do, and he had dragons.

So the IB, of course, is doing exactly what it is expected to do: handing out even more gold to a champion who will eventually honor all of this debt. But as you ask, what if Stannis dies? Who do they back now? Shireen? Good luck getting the houses to support her when most don't even support Stannis. Meanwhile, Illyrio's champion, fAegon, is knocking on the crown's door. If he takes the throne, one of his first decrees will be that debts incurred by usurpers and murderers are their own and the throne will not honor them. In this case, we can expect the IB to send an FM after fAegon. But even if they get to him, so what? Either fAegon will have an heir by then who will be under a regency selected by Illyrio and maintain the same policy toward the loan, or there is no heir and the entire continent is thrown right back into civil war which will most likely result in seven independent kingdoms once again, none of which owes a dime to the Iron Bank.

So with the bank out the money it loaned to the crown and to Stannis, not to mention the loss of income that will result from Dany's disruption to the slave trade, the IB's reserves are likely running low. I would point out two things in support of this:

  • the bank is calling in loans across Westeros. Some might say this is a power tactic to get the throne to pay up, but if it is it is doomed to fail. Pulling capital out of Westeros will only hamper the war-torn economy even more, making it that much more difficult for the crown to service its loan, and its coffers are already empty. Whenever a bank starts calling in performing loans it's a sign of trouble: it means it must sacrifice future profits because it needs cash now.
  • Jon's loan from the IB. When he first presents this to Tycho, the answer is a hard no: no way, now how, not possible. Only through negotiations did no become yes, and later we find that part of these negotiations is that the wealth of the wildings, meager as it is, will be put up for collateral. The bank is desperate for any cash infusion it can find.

So with the bank short of cash, Illyrio and LF spring the final trap. They send their proxies in to withdraw their deposits (probably after a whispering campaign that the bank is on the ropes because of its losses in Westeros), and when they are denied it starts a classic panic that can drive the bank into insolvency within a day, just like what happened to the Rogare Bank.

With the bank gone, Braavos' proxy currency, the iron coin, becomes worthless, the economy collapses, and Pentos can finally regain its autonomy. After that, Illyrio could care less what happens to Westeros. Petyr can do what he likes with it.

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Posted (edited)
7 hours ago, YeniAy_Ottoman said:

When you say reserve, things like a gold mine, right?

In the origins of real world banking.

People would deposit their wealth in a bank so they didnt have to carry it around with them everywhere. Bankers quickly learned that almost nobody ever came in and withdrew all of their wealth. 

So then the bankers have all this wealth just sitting there collecting dust so started playing with other peoples money, buying things, loaning it out to others etc etc. This was already going on in ancient times. Centuries and centuries of this led to all sorts of the documented problems of banking and predatory usury, monopolies on currency value, orchestrated economy collapses, funding opposing sides of the same wars, etc etc. Where today i believe almost all modern wars are banker wars.

My speculation of IB maybe fanning some flames to help start the war. Its far fetched yeh. Im thinking at most they maybe tried to start a little something for some war profiteering but never intended it to get this out of hand of course. IB looks to be in just as much of panic mode as anybody else right now. Likely for good reason, if clients are withdrawing larger amounts of their wealth due to the war they are probably terrified that one day soon they arent going to have anything to give the clients who want to withdraw their wealth. Due to them spending it and/or loaning it out. But as of now the IB is still counting on and planning for its own existence beyond the war so they probably arent in 100% "just survive" mode yet and imo would still be willing to fund other factions besides Stannis with money they create out of thin air just to make sure whoever is on the throne is in permanent debt to them. It might be too late to back another faction if they are just waiting to see if Stannis wins or loses. They dont want somebody to just come in and take the crown and then not owe them anything. Which could possibly happen if they are throwing all their eggs in the Stannis basket.

 

Edited by Ephraim'sFruit

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9 hours ago, YeniAy_Ottoman said:

Can we see they will send one of the FMs and see Tommen die that way? Or his big sister? 

 

Why would they take out Tommen when Cersei is the problem? Tommen isn't making any decisions. A different regent might start paying the loan again. Also, are you suggesting the FM might send Arya to do the killing?

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Posted (edited)
5 hours ago, Ephraim'sFruit said:

reserve

The "reserve" would be an amount of wealth a bank has that they dont lend out just keep to cover unexpected mass withdrawals of money. Thats reserve banking.

Then there is fractional reserve banking which the majority of banks on earth today use. Where the reserve only represents a small "fraction" of what they loan out or spend.

In USA i think we may be using no reserve banking now. Which is scary. The law was that banks had to hold a minimum amount of 10% of their holdings in reserve. In 2020 thats no longer the case. Banks are not required to hold any reserve at all now.

https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/reservereq.htm

"Reserve Requirements

As announced on March 15, 2020, the Board reduced reserve requirement ratios to zero percent effective March 26, 2020.  This action eliminated reserve requirements for all depository institutions."

 

My guess is that IB is somewhere in between fractional and no reserve banking right now.

Ive only read the main novels but from looking at the wiki it seems other material has a lot more detail about how the IB conducts business so idk exactly what they are doing. This is all speculation on my part.

I was reading in the wiki about this guy named Tyland Lannister and noticed this......."During the regency of Aegon III, the lending of gold by Tyland to lords caused a rift between the Iron Throne of Westeros and the Iron Bank of Braavos.[9]".... If anybody has any context on this please share. The source says from Fire & Blood.

I wonder how much plotting and scheming the Lannisters do to try to compete with the IB or if they mostly have a mutual agreement to work together or what. They look like the closet thing to a bank that Westeros has. Youd think Westeros nobility would be more curious as to why the crown is always in debt to a foreign nation. Not that most of them would even be aware I guess. Wasnt Ned shocked to learn about the crowns debt when he became Hand? Still though.

 

Edited by Ephraim'sFruit

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Do Iron Bank know (or care) about who is real supporter of (f)Aegon? Or there is a possibility that one reason why IB supports Stannis is that they suspect that victory of (f)Aegon would be bad for their business.

But main problem about idea that Illyrio is potential enemy of Iron Bank is that anyone who challenge might of IB will likely have massive problems like Rogares had when their bank became too powerful. So if Illyrio or (f)Aegon really tries to harm interests of IB they would almost certainly become targets of assassins. Or challenging Iron Bank is almost certain suicide.

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Posted (edited)
On 3/5/2021 at 7:33 PM, John Suburbs said:

Nice read. Here is what I think is going on:

Illyrio is working with Littlefinger in a plot to bring down the Iron Bank. This will collapse the Braavosi economy and Pentos can tear up the peace treaty it signed after their last war, the one that prohibits Pentos from having its own army and keeps men like Illyrio from slaving.

What appears to be Littlefinger's financial genius is nothing more than him being bankrolled by Illyrio. At the same time, he is borrowing massive sums from the IB and others, and then redepositing that money under a series of proxy accounts. Now, with LF no longer MoC and the crown's coffers dry, it cannot pay back its loans. These amounts are likely to be far larger than anything loaned to one of the Free Cities because the crown represents an entire continent, not just a single city. At the same time, the tried and true strategy of just getting rid of one deadbeat ruler and putting another in its place does not work in Westeros. Here, the king must have a legitimate claim to the throne, or else someone has to reconquer all seven great houses all over again -- something it took AtC a good six years to do, and he had dragons.

So the IB, of course, is doing exactly what it is expected to do: handing out even more gold to a champion who will eventually honor all of this debt. But as you ask, what if Stannis dies? Who do they back now? Shireen? Good luck getting the houses to support her when most don't even support Stannis. Meanwhile, Illyrio's champion, fAegon, is knocking on the crown's door. If he takes the throne, one of his first decrees will be that debts incurred by usurpers and murderers are their own and the throne will not honor them. In this case, we can expect the IB to send an FM after fAegon. But even if they get to him, so what? Either fAegon will have an heir by then who will be under a regency selected by Illyrio and maintain the same policy toward the loan, or there is no heir and the entire continent is thrown right back into civil war which will most likely result in seven independent kingdoms once again, none of which owes a dime to the Iron Bank.

So with the bank out the money it loaned to the crown and to Stannis, not to mention the loss of income that will result from Dany's disruption to the slave trade, the IB's reserves are likely running low. I would point out two things in support of this:

  • the bank is calling in loans across Westeros. Some might say this is a power tactic to get the throne to pay up, but if it is it is doomed to fail. Pulling capital out of Westeros will only hamper the war-torn economy even more, making it that much more difficult for the crown to service its loan, and its coffers are already empty. Whenever a bank starts calling in performing loans it's a sign of trouble: it means it must sacrifice future profits because it needs cash now.
  • Jon's loan from the IB. When he first presents this to Tycho, the answer is a hard no: no way, now how, not possible. Only through negotiations did no become yes, and later we find that part of these negotiations is that the wealth of the wildings, meager as it is, will be put up for collateral. The bank is desperate for any cash infusion it can find.

So with the bank short of cash, Illyrio and LF spring the final trap. They send their proxies in to withdraw their deposits (probably after a whispering campaign that the bank is on the ropes because of its losses in Westeros), and when they are denied it starts a classic panic that can drive the bank into insolvency within a day, just like what happened to the Rogare Bank.

With the bank gone, Braavos' proxy currency, the iron coin, becomes worthless, the economy collapses, and Pentos can finally regain its autonomy. After that, Illyrio could care less what happens to Westeros. Petyr can do what he likes with it.

It's an interesting theory, I haven't gotten very warm in general, but I think it's beautiful in terms of thought and it has a chain of events that will have a pretty good plot in a story. Maybe you're completely right about your opinion. Thank you for explaining to me.

On 3/5/2021 at 9:05 PM, Ephraim'sFruit said:

My speculation of IB maybe fanning some flames to help start the war. Its far fetched yeh. Im thinking at most they maybe tried to start a little something for some war profiteering but never intended it to get this out of hand of course. IB looks to be in just as much of panic mode as anybody else right now. Likely for good reason, if clients are withdrawing larger amounts of their wealth due to the war they are probably terrified that one day soon they arent going to have anything to give the clients who want to withdraw their wealth. Due to them spending it and/or loaning it out. But as of now the IB is still counting on and planning for its own existence beyond the war so they probably arent in 100% "just survive" mode yet and imo would still be willing to fund other factions besides Stannis with money they create out of thin air just to make sure whoever is on the throne is in permanent debt to them. It might be too late to back another faction if they are just waiting to see if Stannis wins or loses. They dont want somebody to just come in and take the crown and then not owe them anything. Which could possibly happen if they are throwing all their eggs in the Stannis basket.

 

There are still a lot of blank spots about the Braavos side's place in the story, so I can't give clear ideas. But I don't think IB is having a problem with its money supply in general. As far as I know, the main investors of the bank are also the owners of the bank. Even FM can be one of them. They earn money for killing people but what do they with this money? A source for IB? Possible.

Basically the working principle of banks is as you say. After all, they are actually usurers. They make money by selling money. So far everything seems to be going this way ... When Cersei refused to pay the debts; As Jon and Pycell said, they use traditional methods to get their money back.

Probably, when the "other throne candidate" does not hold the plan, they will move to the FM stage, and they will inevitably sit on that throne another king who will pay this money. Tommen probably will die because of revenge by Tyene Sand, and Mycella will diye because of this dept issiue. They have done this for hundreds of years, and people are so afraid of these methods that there have been some people trying to pay their debts by selling their family.

 

On 3/5/2021 at 9:38 PM, Groo said:

Why would they take out Tommen when Cersei is the problem? Tommen isn't making any decisions. A different regent might start paying the loan again. Also, are you suggesting the FM might send Arya to do the killing?

As Tyhco said, the debt belongs to the throne, and the debt must be paid by the person sitting on that throne. Tycho used expressions that clearly blamed Tommen for this. IB is not concerned with who is the regent or counsellors, it is only concerned with who is sitting on the throne. Until now we have not seen regent or counselors killed in history because of debt, only kings. So why would IB take the extra risk by supporting Stannis so that they could directly kill Cersei and the regent can change? Because in their logic it doesn't work that way.

Quote

"The debts belong to the Iron Throne," Tycho declared, "and whosoever sits on that chair must pay them. Since young King Tommen and his counsellors have become so obdurate, we mean to broach the subject with King Stannis. Should he prove himself more worthy of our trust, it would of course be our great pleasure to lend him whatever help he needs."

And no, I didn't meant to Arya will kill Tommen or his sister. 

As Martin said before, Arya is still an apprentice, we assume she will be FM ... it takes years to become FM, Arya has been with them for half a year at most. So, you don't send apprentices to distant places on such dangerous missions, you send a real FM. The person who took its FM vows and is now a "no one" with everything ...

One of the reasons IB decided to support Stannis, as I said, is most likely related to the chaos that will result from Arya killing Raff.

 

  

On 3/6/2021 at 12:08 AM, Loose Bolt said:

But main problem about idea that Illyrio is potential enemy of Iron Bank is that anyone who challenge might of IB will likely have massive problems like Rogares had when their bank became too powerful. So if Illyrio or (f)Aegon really tries to harm interests of IB they would almost certainly become targets of assassins. Or challenging Iron Bank is almost certain suicide.

IB is a dangerous enemy. There is an organization like FM that they can use at all times. It is also possible that in Braavos, each of them is acting in a close alliance, so they are not independent of each other. We saw FM's desire for knowledge, we saw it from Arya's training. So FM doesn't just kill people for money, they also spy. They collect and use information in favor of Braavos probably.

Illyrio cannot be the only enemy of the IB all this time. Even other banks should be enemies for them, but they could do nothing or other enemies. There is nothing that distinguishes Illyrio from the others.

Edited by YeniAy_Ottoman

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What Arya did will stop the deal in its tracks.  It is my opinion that this event will create problems in Westeros.  We should not celebrate this murder because millions of people will suffer because of it.  The western economy will collapse.  Arya pushed what was already a delicate situation into a kingdom wide economic disaster.  The blood of the people will stain her hands. 

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Posted (edited)

1. A Lannister always pays his debts.

2.The Iron Bank will have its due.

1. All men must serve.

2. All men must die.

1. Gold equals life and souls?

2. Death pays for life and death always has its due?

I really enjoy the banking plot and all the possible scheming. Lords Of Finance is a great non-fiction book to read. Just wondering if monies are the only subject being discussed between Tycho and the bloody signature of Stanis. 
 

Some stranger with a slight foreign accent appears on a battlefield with a robe, hat, scrolls, and ink pots as his only form of identification is awfully suspicious.

 

Edited by Fool Stands On Giant’s Toe

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On 3/5/2021 at 7:03 AM, YeniAy_Ottoman said:

I do not think this claim has any basis. When you say reserve, things like a gold mine, right? There is no information that Braavos has mines because it is not a very suitable place geographically for such a thing. Even Braavos coins iron, possibly even they import iron. They even import the trees.

I think the area did have an iron mine at one time, though at the time of the founding of the Iron Bank the mine was spent as a source of iron.  But the old mine was useful as a hollow place in the Earth in which to secure treasures.

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Posted (edited)
6 hours ago, The Lord of the Crossing said:

What Arya did will stop the deal in its tracks.  It is my opinion that this event will create problems in Westeros.  We should not celebrate this murder because millions of people will suffer because of it.  The western economy will collapse.  Arya pushed what was already a delicate situation into a kingdom wide economic disaster.  The blood of the people will stain her hands. 

Pretty interesting approach.

  

1 hour ago, namfoodle said:

I think the area did have an iron mine at one time, though at the time of the founding of the Iron Bank the mine was spent as a source of iron.  But the old mine was useful as a hollow place in the Earth in which to secure treasures.

 

True, there was an iron mine. IB gets its name from here. I had forgotten that while writing. But yes, the mine was used as a kind of casing. The IB's treasury resource was investors' money, not a mining income.

Edited by YeniAy_Ottoman

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Posted (edited)

I've read in World of Ice and Fire and the ASIOAF books that if a prince defaults to a lesser bank, that bank might fail and all that stuff, but if they default to the Iron Bank, that new princes will spring up and take their place. Can the same thing happen for Westeros?

Edited by Jaenara Belarys
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And also, I don't think that the Iron Bank would loan to anybody that is a claimant like Aegon and Dany? Maybe Aegon, but Daenerys is a Valyrian with dragons. Braavos has bad memories of Valyrians with dragons.

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7 minutes ago, Jaenara Belarys said:

I've read in World of Ice and Fire and the ASIOAF books that if a prince defaults to a lesser bank, that bank might fail and all that stuff, but if they default to the Iron Bank, that new princes will spring up and take their place. Can the same thing happen for Westeros?

 

5 minutes ago, Jaenara Belarys said:

And also, I don't think that the Iron Bank would loan to anybody that is a claimant like Aegon and Dany? Maybe Aegon, but Daenerys is a Valyrian with dragons. Braavos has bad memories of Valyrians with dragons.

But I think Aegon will drive the white dragon too. So we'll have Valyrians with two dragons (and Jon). We know that Braavos sent ships to support Vale 300 years ago during the conquest, even then they did not take a good look at the Targ. They got along well from time to time as a matter of policy, that's right. They had dragons, after all, and they could use that.

Do will they want to support Jon against Aegon and Dany? I'm not sure, Jon will have a dragon too. It is necessary to think better about Braavos, but I think we can make the most comfortable guesses after the 6th book.

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9 minutes ago, YeniAy_Ottoman said:

 

But I think Aegon will drive the white dragon too. So we'll have Valyrians with two dragons (and Jon). We know that Braavos sent ships to support Vale 300 years ago during the conquest, even then they did not take a good look at the Targ. They got along well from time to time as a matter of policy, that's right. They had dragons, after all, and they could use that.

Do will they want to support Jon against Aegon and Dany? I'm not sure, Jon will have a dragon too. It is necessary to think better about Braavos, but I think we can make the most comfortable guesses after the 6th book.

I think the Braavosi will basically send ships to anybody who offers to pay to "rent" them. Moredo Rogare for example, from FaB got a loan from the IB and was able to hire ships and swords. Also, I think that fAegon will ride Rhaegal, but we can have our opinions.

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3 minutes ago, Jaenara Belarys said:

I think the Braavosi will basically send ships to anybody who offers to pay to "rent" them. Moredo Rogare for example, from FaB got a loan from the IB and was able to hire ships and swords. Also, I think that fAegon will ride Rhaegal, but we can have our opinions.

I may be mistaken, did Vale rent the ships? It remained in my mind that Braavos "sent".

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