Will Doran get his whole family killed?

[Groo]

Doran sent Quentyn into the maelstrom of Slaver’s Bay with just five companions, one piece of paper, no negotiating strategy, and no backup plan. Quentyn died. Doran is now sending out more of his family. Let’s see how well Doran has prepared them.

He has a mission for Tyene. “The Swords and the Stars have been re-formed, and this new High Septon is not the puppet that the others were. Try and get close to him.” That’s the entirety of his instructions to Tyene. No agenda for what she should be doing if she manages to get close to him. I guess the plan is she’ll bat her eyes, do her poisoned flower routine, and the High Sparrow will be putty in her hands.

He has a mission for Nym. She is to return Myrcella to King’s Landing and take Oberyn’s seat on the small council. “The Lannisters will not like it, no more than they liked it when I sent them Oberyn, but they dare not refuse. We need a voice in council, an ear at court.” Shockingly, he has no agenda for Nym. He’s putting her on the ruling council for the whole kingdom to be a voice but he’s given her nothing to say. I guess being an ear counts as a plan.

He has a mission for Arianne. He sends her to the Stormlands to investigate fAegon and send back either the word dragon or the word war (from Winds of Winter). This looks more like a plan but it’s simplistic and incomplete. He gave her no instructions about negotiating with fAegon, no contingency plans if fAegon is real but appears weak, and no general goals that might be broader than the two coded responses. She does get six companions rather than Quentyn’s five. One of them is her cousin Elia. I guess Doran thought getting one family member killed at a time was too slow and decided to go with two family members for this mission.

So what do you think? Is Doran a master of the game of thrones or does he actually think merely placing your pieces on the board counts as brilliant game play?

[Canon Claude]

9 minutes ago, Groo said:

Doran sent Quentyn into the maelstrom of Slaver’s Bay with just five companions, one piece of paper, no negotiating strategy, and no backup plan. Quentyn died. Doran is now sending out more of his family. Let’s see how well Doran has prepared them.

He has a mission for Tyene. “The Swords and the Stars have been re-formed, and this new High Septon is not the puppet that the others were. Try and get close to him.” That’s the entirety of his instructions to Tyene. No agenda for what she should be doing if she manages to get close to him. I guess the plan is she’ll bat her eyes, do her poisoned flower routine, and the High Sparrow will be putty in her hands.

He has a mission for Nym. She is to return Myrcella to King’s Landing and take Oberyn’s seat on the small council. “The Lannisters will not like it, no more than they liked it when I sent them Oberyn, but they dare not refuse. We need a voice in council, an ear at court.” Shockingly, he has no agenda for Nym. He’s putting her on the ruling council for the whole kingdom to be a voice but he’s given her nothing to say. I guess being an ear counts as a plan.

He has a mission for Arianne. He sends her to the Stormlands to investigate fAegon and send back either the word dragon or the word war (from Winds of Winter). This looks more like a plan but it’s simplistic and incomplete. He gave her no instructions about negotiating with fAegon, no contingency plans if fAegon is real but appears weak, and no general goals that might be broader than the two coded responses. She does get six companions rather than Quentyn’s five. One of them is her cousin Elia. I guess Doran thought getting one family member killed at a time was too slow and decided to go with two family members for this mission.

So what do you think? Is Doran a master of the game of thrones or does he actually think merely placing your pieces on the board counts as brilliant game play?

We haven’t seen everything. For all we know, he’s given full instructions that GRRM is concealing from us so we don’t know what to expect.

[Groo]

True, but Doran keeps getting credit as this master player and we’ve seen little direct evidence of this so far. The defense is usually some version of “We haven’t seen his full plan yet. It is secretly genius.” I'm not implying that's what you're saying. I'm wondering if we'll actually see something that lives up to the hype.

[Jay21]

I'm waiting for the other shoe to drop.  Right now Doran looks like the guy the sandsnakes describe, not the one that Tywin does. 

[Groo]

9 minutes ago, Jay21 said:

I'm waiting for the other shoe to drop.  Right now Doran looks like the guy the sandsnakes describe, not the one that Tywin does. 

That begs the question of who knows him better, his family who lives with him or Tywin who only deals with him infrequently. Did GRRM throw us off right from the beginning because the first we hear about Doran is from Tywin?

[Lord Browndodd]

I do wonder whether GRRM based the character on some chess-playing buddy of his who talked a good talk, took seventeen years to make a move, and then lost his queen when he did so.

[Angel Eyes]

Doran’s problem is that he moves too slowly and bases his decisions on outdated information.

• Doran could have fostered Viserys and Daenerys in Norvos when Mellario moved back there. His excuse that Mellario didn’t want to lose a child to fostering is bullshit; why not send both Mellario and Arianne to Norvos? Arianne could form a rapport with Viserys and Doran could mold Viserys into someone who would be unlikely to abuse his daughter. Instead by the time we meet Viserys, he’s become the sort that nobody would want for a goodson.
• He also didn’t trust Arianne with his plans, which is a big no-no with building a good relationship with one’s heir, look at the relationship between Aegon IV or Aerys II.
• Quentyn’s plan was a poor one from the get-go; Doran would have flunked Appearance Politics 101. 
  •  By the nature of how he left Dorne everyone in PlankyTown knew there was a plot (doesn’t help that two of his companions had distinctive features like a bald head or a lazy eye). For example, Oldtown was a bigger port where the companions could have masked their departure. 
  • Doran could have announced that Quentyn was going on holiday to the Free Cities (as Tyrion tried to do) or was going to visit his mother in Norvos. Could have used that as a springboard to traveling to Meereen or setting up in an villa to invite Daenerys to wow her as Daenerys had to be shown that Dorne was a viable partner since Quentyn’s appearance and personality would have not.
  • More variety in Quentyn’s companions; all of them only had ties to House Yronwood, and so showed that only House Yronwood was backing the scheme. Contrast with Oberyn’s entourage in King’s Landing that had representatives of Dorne’s best and brightest.
  • Instead, he decided secrecy was more important, and so this small band was whittled down until you had a prince in rags with two companions who were only from one house, showing that Quentyn did not have Dorne at his back. He had nothing to offer Daenerys, he tried to fulfill the plan, and now we have roast frog to dine on.

[Groo]

3 minutes ago, Angel Eyes said:

Doran’s problem is that he moves too slowly and bases his decisions on outdated information.

• Doran could have fostered Viserys and Daenerys in Norvos when Mellario moved back there. His excuse that Mellario didn’t want to lose a child to fostering is bullshit; why not send both Mellario and Arianne to Norvos? Arianne could form a rapport with Viserys and Doran could mold Viserys into someone who would be unlikely to abuse his daughter. Instead by the time we meet Viserys, he’s become the sort that nobody would want for a goodson.
• He also didn’t trust Arianne with his plans, which is a big no-no with building a good relationship with one’s heir, look at the relationship between Aegon IV or Aerys II.
• Quentyn’s plan was a poor one from the get-go; Doran would have flunked Appearance Politics 101. 
  •  By the nature of how he left Dorne everyone in PlankyTown knew there was a plot (doesn’t help that two of his companions had distinctive features like a bald head or a lazy eye). For example, Oldtown was a bigger port where the companions could have masked their departure. 
  • Doran could have announced that Quentyn was going on holiday to the Free Cities (as Tyrion tried to do) or was going to visit his mother in Norvos. Could have used that as a springboard to traveling to Meereen or setting up in an villa to invite Daenerys to wow her as Daenerys had to be shown that Dorne was a viable partner since Quentyn’s appearance and personality would have not.
  • More variety in Quentyn’s companions; all of them only had ties to House Yronwood, and so showed that only House Yronwood was backing the scheme. Contrast with Oberyn’s entourage in King’s Landing that had representatives of Dorne’s best and brightest.
  • Instead, he decided secrecy was more important, and so this small band was whittled down until you had a prince in rags with two companions who were only from one house, showing that Quentyn did not have Dorne at his back. He had nothing to offer Daenerys, he tried to fulfill the plan, and now we have roast frog to dine on.

Doran leaving Viserys to wither on the vine all those years always bothered me. There are all sorts of ways they could have helped Viserys over the years, including your good plan above. Instead, they let him turn into the Beggar King. Other than his last name, what use was Viserys to anyone when GOT starts?

[Angel Eyes]

2 hours ago, Groo said:

Doran leaving Viserys to wither on the vine all those years always bothered me. There are all sorts of ways they could have helped Viserys over the years, including your good plan above. Instead, they let him turn into the Beggar King. Other than his last name, what use was Viserys to anyone when GOT starts?

Figurehead. That’s about it. Though Viserys didn’t help his cause by not really trying to improve himself like training in arms (the one thing Willem Darry might have been completely able to help in considering he was Master-at-Arms), which could have helped him with the Dothraki for instance, or trying to marry and extend the line. 

[James Steller]

4 hours ago, Groo said:

Doran leaving Viserys to wither on the vine all those years always bothered me. There are all sorts of ways they could have helped Viserys over the years, including your good plan above. Instead, they let him turn into the Beggar King. Other than his last name, what use was Viserys to anyone when GOT starts?

Maybe Viserys or his handler refused Doran's protection? Given how Doran's family failed to protect the Targaryens, and given how Elia's husband and children were technically rivals to Viserys' position as heir, I can't imagine Viserys would look at the Martells with much fondness.

[Orion2]

yes clearly there is no other possible outcome. ive seen it coming since book 1

[Groo]

10 hours ago, James Steller said:

Maybe Viserys or his handler refused Doran's protection? Given how Doran's family failed to protect the Targaryens, and given how Elia's husband and children were technically rivals to Viserys' position as heir, I can't imagine Viserys would look at the Martells with much fondness.

But Viserys tells Daenerys, "The realm will rise for its rightful king. Tyrell, Redwyne, Darry, Greyjoy, they have no more love for the Usurper than I do. The Dornishmen burn to avenge Elia and her children. And the smallfolk will be with us." He has the Martells on the short list of houses he thinks he can count on.

[Angel Eyes]

11 hours ago, James Steller said:

Maybe Viserys or his handler refused Doran's protection? Given how Doran's family failed to protect the Targaryens, and given how Elia's husband and children were technically rivals to Viserys' position as heir, I can't imagine Viserys would look at the Martells with much fondness.

What handler? After Willem Darry died Viserys and Daenerys had no handler, they just traveled from place to place until they wound up in Pentos.

[Angel Eyes]

The fact that Doran did not trust Arianne with her own fate is telling for me; as Doran's heir Arianne had a right to know what her father was planning and how to rule. If he couldn't trust her with a vital piece of information, how could he expect her to rule Dorne?

[Springwatch]

17 hours ago, Groo said:

So what do you think? Is Doran a master of the game of thrones or does he actually think merely placing your pieces on the board counts as brilliant game play?

Hidden daggers. What LF did with Kettleblacks, just put them on the board, and make use of them later.

But also, Doran is not a nice guy, he's thirsting for vengeance as much as the Sandsnakes. I'm guessing he knows they'll be patient a little longer, now they have a task to do, and war is coming, but if they break out and kill a few people, Doran isn't going to complain.

[Angel Eyes]

1 minute ago, Springwatch said:

Hidden daggers. What LF did with Kettleblacks, just put them on the board, and make use of them later.

But also, Doran is not a nice guy, he's thirsting for vengeance as much as the Sandsnakes. I'm guessing he knows they'll be patient a little longer, now they have a task to do, and war is coming, but if they break out and kill a few people, Doran isn't going to complain.

Hidden daggers can be bent out of shape. Remember what Littlefinger said about Osmund Kettleblack being not as reliable after becoming a Kingsguard?

[Angel Eyes]

17 hours ago, Groo said:

True, but Doran keeps getting credit as this master player and we’ve seen little direct evidence of this so far. The defense is usually some version of “We haven’t seen his full plan yet. It is secretly genius.” I'm not implying that's what you're saying. I'm wondering if we'll actually see something that lives up to the hype.

I wonder how he got his reputation in the first place. Is it possible there was something that was foiled when Jon Arryn brought Lewyn and Elia's bones back to Dorne after Robert's Rebellion? Bones seem like a comically small bribe, as shown in the books since Ned Stark's bones were returned and that didn't stop hostilities between the Starks and the Lannisters.

[Groo]

4 hours ago, Angel Eyes said:

The fact that Doran did not trust Arianne with her own fate is telling for me; as Doran's heir Arianne had a right to know what her father was planning and how to rule. If he couldn't trust her with a vital piece of information, how could he expect her to rule Dorne?

I could maybe buy him not telling her about the marriage pact with Viserys. Her reactions to all the suitors he trotted out would be natural that way and she wouldn't have to act. Also, she would have had to keep that secret for years. That's weak but I could maybe buy it. Not telling her about Quentyn's mission, however, is deeply problematic. That's not telling your heir about a major unfolding political move. That's a secret that only needs to be kept for a short time. Word of Quentyn's arrival in Slaver's Bay and proposal to Daenerys is going to make it's way back to the Seven Kingdoms before too long. In fact, what does Doran plan to do when word gets back to King's Landing even without fAegon showing up?

[Springwatch]

4 hours ago, Angel Eyes said:

Hidden daggers can be bent out of shape. Remember what Littlefinger said about Osmund Kettleblack being not as reliable after becoming a Kingsguard?

Everyone knows sellswords are open for a better offer. If you know what a man wants, you can bend him out of shape, as LF almost said.

But does King's Landing have any idea what they're getting with Nym and Tyene?

[Angel Eyes]

3 minutes ago, Springwatch said:

Everyone knows sellswords are open for a better offer. If you know what a man wants, you can bend him out of shape, as LF almost said.

But does King's Landing have any idea what they're getting with Nym and Tyene?

Nym, yes. She’s already known as an expert with knives. Tyene, not so much; she looks all innocent but is just as deadly. Besides, they plus Obara were imprisoned by Doran for trying to stir up war, that much reached King’s Landing.