Will Doran get his whole family killed?

[Angel Eyes]

7 minutes ago, Groo said:

I could maybe buy him not telling her about the marriage pact with Viserys. Her reactions to all the suitors he trotted out would be natural that way and she wouldn't have to act. Also, she would have had to keep that secret for years. That's weak but I could maybe buy it. Not telling her about Quentyn's mission, however, is deeply problematic. That's not telling your heir about a major unfolding political move. That's a secret that only needs to be kept for a short time. Word of Quentyn's arrival in Slaver's Bay and proposal to Daenerys is going to make it's way back to the Seven Kingdoms before too long. In fact, what does Doran plan to do when word gets back to King's Landing even without fAegon showing up?

Say that’s a pretty good point. She should have been told about that, especially since Arianne was already suspicious of Quentyn and that could alleviate suspicions (theoretically).

[Groo]

1 minute ago, Springwatch said:

Everyone knows sellswords are open for a better offer. If you know what a man wants, you can bend him out of shape, as LF almost said.

But does King's Landing have any idea what they're getting with Nym and Tyene?

Reckless or no, Cersei acts quickly against perceived threats. How long before she acts against Nym on the small council. Cersei might even just dismiss the small council outright which she's probably wanted to do for awhile. What's Nym going to do on the sidelines?

[Springwatch]

2 minutes ago, Groo said:

Reckless or no, Cersei acts quickly against perceived threats. How long before she acts against Nym on the small council. Cersei might even just dismiss the small council outright which she's probably wanted to do for awhile. What's Nym going to do on the sidelines?

The walk of shame left its mark on Cersei - it changed her, but it's too early to say how much. Last we saw her, she was quiet and demure and hiding herself - I think New Cersei will be less extrovert, more calculating and cruel. The clash with Nym could be interesting.

Doran has repeated his last move putting Nym on the Council - she's very much a like for like replacement for Oberyn. Openly dangerous. Maybe to distract from activity elsewhere.

[Groo]

Suggesting Cersei might be less extrovert now is a fair point. I personally suspect she's just biding her time until she gets back in control and that she'll go to the other extreme but that's nothing but a hunch.

[CamiloRP]

I made this point before but, Jaime lost his source of power (his skill at arms) and went to traumatic events, which forced him into becoming a smarter person, now that Cersei has gone through to traumatic events and a loss of her source of power (her beauty), so we should expect her to be smarter too. Also, her being a stupid ruler and ruining the kingdom already happened in the last book, rehashing the same storyline would be boooooring.

[Groo]

15 minutes ago, CamiloRP said:

I made this point before but, Jaime lost his source of power (his skill at arms) and went to traumatic events, which forced him into becoming a smarter person, now that Cersei has gone through to traumatic events and a loss of her source of power (her beauty), so we should expect her to be smarter too. Also, her being a stupid ruler and ruining the kingdom already happened in the last book, rehashing the same storyline would be boooooring.

Brienne played an important part in Jaime's development. For lack of a better term, I'd say she served as a more positive role model that helped Jaime rethink things. Is there someone like that for Cersei? She might listen to Qyburn but is that going to lead to any improvement for her?

[CamiloRP]

13 minutes ago, Groo said:

Brienne played an important part in Jaime's development. For lack of a better term, I'd say she served as a more positive role model that helped Jaime rethink things. Is there someone like that for Cersei? She might listen to Qyburn but is that going to lead to any improvement for her?

hahhahahahha fair enough.

I'm not saying she's gonna transform into Frank Underwood or anythin' like that tho, just that she will undoubtedly be a different person and likely won't make the same mistakes.

[Groo]

4 hours ago, CamiloRP said:

hahhahahahha fair enough.

I'm not saying she's gonna transform into Frank Underwood or anythin' like that tho, just that she will undoubtedly be a different person and likely won't make the same mistakes.

I hadn't thought this before until I read your comment but what if a changed, more experienced Cersei ends up out maneuvering the Martells? That would be ironic.

[Castellan]

In answer to the original post, I have always thought Doran is amazingly careless with his children. I understand that its a small and isolated princedom with less resources, but really, did Quentin have to go in person? He was obviously not going to sweep Dany off her feet with his charm so senior advisors and Lords would have done the job better. Can he really rely on Arianne's judgement on whether Aegon is the real deal? And does it matter - she should be assessing Aegon's chances of winning.

He is also dangerously trusting with them. What did he think Oberyn would do if sent to KL? What does he think the sand snakes will do? Perhaps thats his idea - let them create havoc.

There are several points at which it has been foreshadowed that Arianne will not be able to make a reliable decision re dragons. When imprisoned by Doran, the limited books in her room included a tome on dragons that she dismissed as boring. When she stops at the castle with the young girl spouting dreams at the dinner table about the dance of the dragons, the lady of the house mentions that they have rare works on dragons that she may see. She declines immediately. Contrast to Tyrion's interest in dragonlore and books about it, his guessing that the dragons would have liked Ben Plumm, etc. I think we can say if Arianne chooses to back Aegon it means he is a fake.

[Bowen Marsh]

He has to risk his family if he wants to play at the game of thrones.  His gout is a crippling condition and he may not live long to guide his family to war against the Lannisters.  Yes the Martells will die out.  The sun will set in the west.  Arrianne will lead the Martells to war against the Lannisters and she will lose. 

[Angel Eyes]

2 hours ago, Bowen Marsh said:

He has to risk his family if he wants to play at the game of thrones.  His gout is a crippling condition and he may not live long to guide his family to war against the Lannisters.  Yes the Martells will die out.  The sun will set in the west.  Arrianne will lead the Martells to war against the Lannisters and she will lose. 

Or she’ll be greyscaled.

[Angel Eyes]

3 hours ago, Castellan said:

In answer to the original post, I have always thought Doran is amazingly careless with his children. I understand that its a small and isolated princedom with less resources, but really, did Quentin have to go in person? He was obviously not going to sweep Dany off her feet with his charm so senior advisors and Lords would have done the job better. Can he really rely on Arianne's judgement on whether Aegon is the real deal? And does it matter - she should be assessing Aegon's chances of winning.

He is also dangerously trusting with them. What did he think Oberyn would do if sent to KL? What does he think the sand snakes will do? Perhaps thats his idea - let them create havoc.

There are several points at which it has been foreshadowed that Arianne will not be able to make a reliable decision re dragons. When imprisoned by Doran, the limited books in her room included a tome on dragons that she dismissed as boring. When she stops at the castle with the young girl spouting dreams at the dinner table about the dance of the dragons, the lady of the house mentions that they have rare works on dragons that she may see. She declines immediately. Contrast to Tyrion's interest in dragonlore and books about it, his guessing that the dragons would have liked Ben Plumm, etc. I think we can say if Arianne chooses to back Aegon it means he is a fake.

Perhaps he’s overcompensating; he had them believe there was no plan, which led to Arianne’s botched coup, and didn’t give enough to Quentyn for him to succeed.

[Shi Qiang]

Prince Doran thinks he's keeping the sand snakes and his daughter under control.  He is wrong about that.  His daughter will drag the family into a war which they can't win.  They won't die out but they will be taken down.  George Martin won't kill all of the sand snakes.  At least one or two will survive.  

[Rose of Red Lake]

Yes, I am skeptical. He thinks he can use dragons to accomplish something positive for his House when dragon's haven't done much of anything that's positive.

[Rose of Red Lake]

17 hours ago, Castellan said:

There are several points at which it has been foreshadowed that Arianne will not be able to make a reliable decision re dragons. When imprisoned by Doran, the limited books in her room included a tome on dragons that she dismissed as boring. When she stops at the castle with the young girl spouting dreams at the dinner table about the dance of the dragons, the lady of the house mentions that they have rare works on dragons that she may see. She declines immediately. Contrast to Tyrion's interest in dragonlore and books about it, his guessing that the dragons would have liked Ben Plumm, etc. I think we can say if Arianne chooses to back Aegon it means he is a fake.

I agree. When a character is presented with a book - it's a test. Arianne failed. It's very frustrating. At the same time Tyrion is a bit too enchanted by dragons and will probably lose sight of what damage they can do. Since I like Arianne more than Tyrion I hope her blase attitude is actually a healthy sign since other characters are so dragon/fire obsessed.

[Castellan]

3 minutes ago, Rose of Red Lake said:

I agree. When a character is presented with a book - it's a test. ...

Hmm must look for more people facing this decision

[Rose of Red Lake]

21 minutes ago, Castellan said:

Hmm must look for more people facing this decision

The ones I remember were, Jon/Aemon, Dany/Jorah, Tyrion/Joffrey, and Asha/Rodrik. Sansa is usually reading books by herself.

[Groo]

17 minutes ago, Castellan said:

Hmm must look for more people facing this decision

It's not about dragons but there are two other instances that come quickly to mind. Rodrik Harlaw trying to discuss a book with Asha and then Roose Bolton looking through a book and then burning it. I suppose we could consider Sam reading all the books Castle Black but that seems too general to be a "test".

[Castellan]

3 hours ago, Groo said:

It's not about dragons but there are two other instances that come quickly to mind. Rodrik Harlaw trying to discuss a book with Asha and then Roose Bolton looking through a book and then burning it. I suppose we could consider Sam reading all the books Castle Black but that seems too general to be a "test".

The best example is Joffrey cutting up Tyrion's gift The Lives of Four Kings I think it is called pretty suitable for someone refusing to learn, he is assassinated very soon after.

When Sansa sees that he has received a book:

A book. Sansa wondered if Joffrey moved those fat wormy lips of his when he read.

I think its interesting that when Jon sets out to Wall and Dany sets out with the  Dothraki, they both are accompanied by strangers who are carrying books and offering them guidance (Tyrion & Jorah).

[SeanF]

On 3/6/2021 at 4:36 PM, Angel Eyes said:

The fact that Doran did not trust Arianne with her own fate is telling for me; as Doran's heir Arianne had a right to know what her father was planning and how to rule. If he couldn't trust her with a vital piece of information, how could he expect her to rule Dorne?

It's very hard to rationalise Doran's actions.  What if he dropped dead suddenly?  How is Arianne supposed to pick up his plans if she doesn't even know what they are?  He has left her very badly prepared for her task as Princess of Dorne, and at the same time now, given her the power to determine when to wage war (it's no longer a question of whether the Dornish will wage war, simply when).