Quentyn’s mission: backlash

[Angel Eyes]

Word is going to become known that Quentyn Martell tried and failed to ally with Daenerys, freed dragons, and got turned into roast frog. So what will be the logical series of events once that becomes known, particularly in King’s Landing and Dorne?

[Nathan Stark]

The main thing is that it will likely turn Dorne against Daenerys. Arianne already believes the ugly rumors about Dany. News of Quentyn's death will convince her to join up with fAegon. Dorne will follow her and the second Dance of Dragons will become immenent.

[Lilac & Gooseberries]

Quote

 

“I told him it was folly. I begged him to go home. Your bitch of a queen had no use for him, any man could see that. He crossed the world to offer her his love and fealty, and she laughed in his face.”

“She never laughed,” said Selmy. “If you knew her, you would know that.”

“She spurned him. He offered her his heart, and she threw it back at him and went off to fuck her sellsword.”

 

I think that the mission was a way for Dany to lose Dorne and on the other hand Aegon will gain his uncle support. That way if Doran accepts Aegon as his nephew he legitimised him in the eyes of Westeros while Dany is left with no Westerosi ally and when she comes and kills Aegon she will be seen as a usurper, Kingslayer and most importantly a kinslayer. Someone who will take Westeros with hordes of savages horse lords and assassins soldiers who killed the true King and usurped his Throne.

[Hugorfonics]

1 hour ago, Angel Eyes said:

Word is going to become known that Quentyn Martell tried and failed to ally with Daenerys, freed dragons, and got turned into roast frog. So what will be the logical series of events once that becomes known, particularly in King’s Landing and Dorne?

Dorne will enter an alliance with Dany over Pentos. Funny, Frog did it, roasted or not.

 

12 minutes ago, Lilac & Gooseberries said:

I think that the mission was a way for Dany to lose Dorne and on the other hand Aegon will gain his uncle support. That way if Doran accepts Aegon as his nephew he legitimised him in the eyes of Westeros while Dany is left with no Westerosi ally and when she comes and kills Aegon she will be seen as a usurper, Kingslayer and most importantly a kinslayer. Someone who will take Westeros with hordes of savages horse lords and assassins soldiers who killed the true King and usurped his Throne.

(Nevermind the 50 other things going on)

In that same chapter you quoted Ser Barristan, the acting hand, allied with the windblown and Dorne against Pentos.

[Lilac & Gooseberries]

1 minute ago, Hugorfonics said:

(Nevermind the 50 other things going on)

In that same chapter you quoted Ser Barristan, the acting hand, allied with the windblown and Dorne against Pentos.

Does Pentos will help Dorne against their Lannister enemies? Will Pentos give Doran heart's desire?

[Hugorfonics]

2 minutes ago, Lilac & Gooseberries said:

Does Pentos will help Dorne against their Lannister enemies? Will Pentos give Doran heart's desire?

Idk, its nice over there

[Egged]

I think Daenerys’ reputation will be even more shot. Refused Quentyn, fed him to her dragons, banged her sellswords instead. Or so the rumors would go.
Just missing Darkstar on her team and then BINGO!

[Rose of Red Lake]

16 minutes ago, Egged said:

Just missing Darkstar on her team and then BINGO!

lmaaaaooooo

As tragic as Quentyn's death was, I hope it puts Dorne back in the position they were in with Aegon's invasion: no more kneeling to dragonlords. I mean why should they? Dany rebuffed the offer. Dany should absolutely stay in Meereen but now she's flipped again and is going to Westeros. She could have won Dorne peacefully from the get-go by marriage. But nope. Now it's the other option. 

[Groo]

Cersei was already risking war with Dorne by plotting to have Trystane killed and she's generally paranoid. When she hears about the Martells sending Quentyn to Daenarys she's going to act quickly. She'll probably try to move against the Sand Snakes before jumping straight to war but I don't see how war is going to be avoided. Doran is playing with fire in more ways than one. Sending Quentyn to Daenerys and Arianne to fAegon sends a clear message to the rest of the world. It says Dorne is going to support a Targaryen restoration. Doran might not think he's committed yet but that's how the rest of the world is going to interpret it.

[Loose Bolt]

7 hours ago, Lilac & Gooseberries said:

Does Pentos will help Dorne against their Lannister enemies? Will Pentos give Doran heart's desire?

During next winter rulers who want stay in power will need access to gold and food. After all large parts of Crownlands, North, Riverlands and Westerlands are lacking food and so people living in those areas cannot feed themselves. So in theory a ruler who could feed those people could gain their support. 

Or a person who had access to enough food and gold could buy support of some lords who would care about future of their lands. After all land without any peasants would become worthless bc those areas would not provide any revenues or soldiers for that lordling who happens to own that desolated land.

[Lilac & Gooseberries]

17 minutes ago, Loose Bolt said:

During next winter rulers who want stay in power will need access to gold and food. After all large parts of Crownlands, North, Riverlands and Westerlands are lacking food and so people living in those areas cannot feed themselves. So in theory a ruler who could feed those people could gain their support. 

Or a person who had access to enough food and gold could buy support of some lords who would care about future of their lands. After all land without any peasants would become worthless bc those areas would not provide any revenues or soldiers for that lordling who happens to own that desolated land.

I am not sure I understand your point.

[SeanF]

Marriage to Quentyn was not an option, unless Daenerys wanted to do as Daario suggested, and massacre Hizdahr and co.  That's the only realistic thing she can do if she publicly breaks her engagement to him.  He arrived one day before the ceremony was due to take place.  It's debatable whether a massacre would have endeared Daenerys to Quentyn.  There may be grounds to do so, on the basis of realpolitik, but it surely needs more than one day's consideration.

Arianne hated Quentyn, wished him dead, and felt intense guilt at having such thoughts.  She'll happily project her own feelings on to Daenerys, blaming her for Quentyn's death. And, she blames Daenerys for the death of Viserys, who she was due to marry (not realising that she dodged a bullet there).  She wants to be Queen of the Seven Kingdoms, and fAegon is her passport to that position.

 

 

[saltedmalted]

1 hour ago, Loose Bolt said:

So in theory a ruler who could feed those people could gain their support

Mace Tyrell will be the next king?

[Loose Bolt]

47 minutes ago, Lilac & Gooseberries said:

I am not sure I understand your point.

I think that good ruler would have use both carrot and whip. If one uses only one of those that ruler would fail like brothers Aenys and Maegor did.

Available military forces of Dorne are so weak that Doran cannot openly challenge might of Iron Throne but he had to use more indirect means like buying support of lordlings who are either unhappy of their own overlords or just so poor that they would do anything to gain some revenues.

Pentos is rich city and controls huge areas of fertile lands which produce a lot of food. So friendly Pentos would give possible plans of Doran much higher chances of success than without support of that city.

Riverlands and some other areas of Westeros were raided by armies and criminals and most available food in those areas are either destroyed or stolen and many people in there are either dead, run away or hidden themselves somewhere. So farms in those are not producing any food and lordlings who own those lands are not gaining any revenues from their lands.

Normally in those cases those lordlings would ask help either from their overlords or king. But nowadays those are not available and in some cases even hostile so those lordlings cannot gain any support from them and so they would have look support from somewhere else. Besides there should be a lot of people who are not happy with Lannisters. 

So in theory Doran could buy support of all people that are unhappy. Naturally assuming that he would have access enough food and gold. I assume that Dorne itself is not rich enough to make that possible but with support of rich city state like Pentos he might have enough resources to start rebellions against Lannister regime.

36 minutes ago, saltedmalted said:

Mace Tyrell will be the next king?

He is king maker. Or his support would make chances of any candidate better and hostile Mace would make having uncomfy chair and funny hat more unlikely.

[The hairy bear]

2 hours ago, SeanF said:

Marriage to Quentyn was not an option, unless Daenerys wanted to do as Daario suggested, and massacre Hizdahr and co.  That's the only realistic thing she can do if she publicly breaks her engagement to him.  He arrived one day before the ceremony was due to take place. 

I wonder if another kind of agreement could have been reached. Specially since the marriage was such a bad idea in the first place.

Hizdhar's only goal is to rule Mereen, and Dany's ultimate goal is to leave the city and conquer Westeros. Both will need to produce heirs to continue their legacy, and they won't be able to accomplish that if they live a continent apart. Quentyn's arrival would have been an excellent opportunity to break the engagement (on the grounds that, unknown to her, she had been promised beforehand. Hizdhar could still be named co-ruler of Mereen, or even adopted by Dany and bequested the city.

[SeanF]

34 minutes ago, The hairy bear said:

I wonder if another kind of agreement could have been reached. Specially since the marriage was such a bad idea in the first place.

Hizdhar's only goal is to rule Mereen, and Dany's ultimate goal is to leave the city and conquer Westeros. Both will need to produce heirs to continue their legacy, and they won't be able to accomplish that if they live a continent apart. Quentyn's arrival would have been an excellent opportunity to break the engagement (on the grounds that, unknown to her, she had been promised beforehand. Hizdhar could still be named co-ruler of Mereen, or even adopted by Dany and bequested the city.

That would be good from the POV's of Dany, Quentyn, and Hizdahr.  The losers would have been most of the Meereenese who Hizdahr would promptly return to slavery.

[Texas Hold Em]

13 hours ago, Angel Eyes said:

Word is going to become known that Quentyn Martell tried and failed to ally with Daenerys, freed dragons, and got turned into roast frog. So what will be the logical series of events once that becomes known, particularly in King’s Landing and Dorne?

The only issues will come from the Martells.  The rest of Westeros could care less about a stupid boy who tried to steal a dragon.  They will have a good laugh at Quentyn's folly.  Foolish boy, thought he could steal a dragon!   Bar-B-Quentyn they would call him in bars and parties.  

The Martells will be angry but it is not much of a loss.  They were crappy allies from the start.  An ally who will not stick his neck out to help you is not very useful.  The Martells are not good allies.  Losing their support is not going to matter.  

 

[The hairy bear]

3 hours ago, SeanF said:

That would be good from the POV's of Dany, Quentyn, and Hizdahr.  The losers would have been most of the Meereenese who Hizdahr would promptly return to slavery.

I don't disagree with you... but isn't that what will happen regardless once Dany departs to Westeros?

[John Suburbs]

16 hours ago, Angel Eyes said:

Word is going to become known that Quentyn Martell tried and failed to ally with Daenerys, freed dragons, and got turned into roast frog. So what will be the logical series of events once that becomes known, particularly in King’s Landing and Dorne?

I wouldn't write our dear young Quent off just yet. His "death" and the events that followed were rather unusual. I see some wiggle room for our favorite frog to still be alive.

But if he is dead, why should it affect anything? Dany didn't kill him. She wasn't even in the city anymore. He died from his own folly, not her treachery, and Arch and Drink can attest to that. Even Doran admits to himself that his plan was foolish -- a decades old piece of paper that is supposed to bind Dany to a house that hasn't given her a lick of support in all the years she was a beggar and then a bought and sold wife to a barbarian? And the pact wasn't even for Dany's hand but to wed Arianne to Viserys, as far as we know.

So it doesn't seem like Quent's death, nor his whole Dance story arc, has any real bearing on the story going forward, which is part of the reason why I think he's not done yet.

[SeanF]

26 minutes ago, The hairy bear said:

I don't disagree with you... but isn't that what will happen regardless once Dany departs to Westeros?

I think the slavers will have gone the way of Monty Python's dead parrot, by then.