Quentyn’s mission: backlash

[Hugorfonics]

10 hours ago, Loose Bolt said:

Pentos is rich city and controls huge areas of fertile lands which produce a lot of food. So friendly Pentos would give possible plans of Doran much higher chances of success than without support of that city.

Doran is about to declare war on Pentos

4 hours ago, John Suburbs said:

So it doesn't seem like Quent's death, nor his whole Dance story arc, has any real bearing on the story going forward

Quentyn is the reason Dany and Doran (and windblown) will ally against Pentos.

11 hours ago, SeanF said:

Arianne hated Quentyn, wished him dead, and felt intense guilt at having such thoughts.  She'll happily project her own feelings on to Daenerys, blaming her for Quentyn's death. And, she blames Daenerys for the death of Viserys, who she was due to marry (not realising that she dodged a bullet there).  She wants to be Queen of the Seven Kingdoms, and fAegon is her passport to that position.

Shes quite the wild card, agreed

[Rose of Red Lake]

12 hours ago, SeanF said:

She wants to be Queen of the Seven Kingdoms, and fAegon is her passport to that position.

where do you see that. She tried to make Myrcella queen so she can inherit Dorne and is now investigating Aegon on orders of her father. Not because she wants to be Margaery Tyrell.

[SeanF]

22 minutes ago, Rose of Red Lake said:

where do you see that. She tried to make Myrcella queen so she can inherit Dorne and is now investigating Aegon on orders of her father. Not because she wants to be Margaery Tyrell.

Myrcella was a pawn.  Myrcella would have been titular ruler of the Seven Kingdoms, but her kingdom would have been restricted to Dorne.  Arianne was using her as a means of unseating her father (and to be fair to Arianne, so far as she knew, her father intended at least to disinherit her, and perhaps do even worse than that.  No one wants to keep a disinherited heir around).

But now, she's learned that Doran intended her to marry Viserys.  Her sample chapter reveals that she is filled with resentment towards Quentyn, and she hopes he will never return from his mission East, but she also feels a good deal of guilt about her feelings.  She also feels intense resentment towards Daenerys, blaming her for the death of Viserys, and concluding that she had him killed because she didn't want to spend the rest of her life in a tent (she's actually projecting on to Daenerys her own feelings towards Quentyn).  So, I think her ambitions now stand higher than ruling Dorne.  fAegon, the Golden Company, Jon Connington's friends in the Reach, and the Dornish army are a winning combination that will take Kings Landing.  

I don't think she means ill to Myrcella (in fact, she feels intense guilt over her injuries) but Myrcella has served her purpose.  I don't think she'll be offering her a crown.  Unfortunately, I think Jon Connington would plan much worse for Myrcella, and Tommen.

At any rate, that’s how I see it. I actually like Arianne, and think she’s well-ntentioned, but I do think she does not appreciate how cruel the game of thrones actually is.

[Rose of Red Lake]

37 minutes ago, SeanF said:

Myrcella was a pawn.  Myrcella would have been titular ruler of the Seven Kingdoms, but her kingdom would have been restricted to Dorne.  Arianne was using her as a means of unseating her father (and to be fair to Arianne, so far as she knew, her father intended at least to disinherit her, and perhaps do even worse than that.  No one wants to keep a disinherited heir around).

But now, she's learned that Doran intended her to marry Viserys.  Her sample chapter reveals that she is filled with resentment towards Quentyn, and she hopes he will never return from his mission East, but she also feels a good deal of guilt about her feelings.  She also feels intense resentment towards Daenerys, blaming her for the death of Viserys, and concluding that she had him killed because she didn't want to spend the rest of her life in a tent (she's actually projecting on to Daenerys her own feelings towards Quentyn).  So, I think her ambitions now stand higher than ruling Dorne.  fAegon, the Golden Company, Jon Connington's friends in the Reach, and the Dornish army are a winning combination that will take Kings Landing.  

I think you're flattening her character a bit. I don't see her taking the same route of ambition as Marge or Cersei - she didn't really care about the 7k through Myrcella, it was just a means to rule Dorne. She only resented Quentyn because she thought Doran was going to name him the heir. 

I also don't see resentment toward Dany - more like suspicion. Which is progress. She seems to be learning from Darkstar, who she was attracted to because he looked Targaryen. Now the Targ-looking person she meets as part of the Golden Co (forgot his name) gives her the creeps, and she thinks it might be good that Viserys is dead.

She also guesses correctly that Dany won't want to have anything to do with Quentyn because he's so boring. But, she also thinks that Dany will have to marry Quentyn if she wants Sunspear. She's actually giving Dany credit because she thinks Dany will understand the significance of Quentyn's offer. She shouldn't be shocked that Dany rejected Quentyn because they would both agree he's a snooze, but she will probably be shocked that Dany doesn't understand Dornish history yet apparently wants to rule it?

[James Fenimore Cooper XXII]

On 3/7/2021 at 10:37 PM, Groo said:

Cersei was already risking war with Dorne by plotting to have Trystane killed and she's generally paranoid. When she hears about the Martells sending Quentyn to Daenarys she's going to act quickly. She'll probably try to move against the Sand Snakes before jumping straight to war but I don't see how war is going to be avoided. Doran is playing with fire in more ways than one. Sending Quentyn to Daenerys and Arianne to fAegon sends a clear message to the rest of the world. It says Dorne is going to support a Targaryen restoration. Doran might not think he's committed yet but that's how the rest of the world is going to interpret it.

The world doesn't know it yet.  The Martells will do their best to keep it secret for as long as they can.  They cannot openly admit to sending Quentyn to Slaver's Bay nor can they admit to an alliance with Aegon (or Young Griff).  The information will come out eventually.  Arriane and Young Griff are the impulsive types.  One of them will spill the beans.  Dorne will be torn apart.  Civil war will break out and the Martells will be hard pressed to hold on to power.  Doran wants to play but doesn't want to commit.  It won't work.  As you say, he has committed.  It's just a matter of time before somebody on his team spills the beans. 

[James Fenimore Cooper XXII]

16 hours ago, Texas Hold Em said:

The only issues will come from the Martells.  The rest of Westeros could care less about a stupid boy who tried to steal a dragon.  They will have a good laugh at Quentyn's folly.  Foolish boy, thought he could steal a dragon!   Bar-B-Quentyn they would call him in bars and parties.  

That's correct.

16 hours ago, Texas Hold Em said:

The Martells will be angry but it is not much of a loss.  They were crappy allies from the start.  An ally who will not stick his neck out to help you is not very useful.  The Martells are not good allies.  Losing their support is not going to matter.  

 

The Martells will surely be upset with Quentyn's death but it's not a big loss for Daenerys.  She's not planning to go to Westeros any time soon.  In the meantime, Dorne will be torn apart by civil war.  The Martells will be lucky if they could hold on to their power.  Darkstar or even the Yronwoods may build enough support to challenge the Martells.  Bottom line, losing the Martells as allies is not a big loss.  And Quentyn's loss is nothing to the rest of Westeros. 

[John Suburbs]

20 hours ago, Hugorfonics said:

Quentyn is the reason Dany and Doran (and windblown) will ally against Pentos.

How so? It wasn't Quent who brought the Windblown to Dany, nor was he the reason they joined her cause in exchange for her help with Pentos, which she refused. So why would she agree to betray Illyrio just because Quentyn is now dead?

I do think there is a good chance that Dany will turn against Illyrio eventually if she ever leaves Slaver's Bay, but it will have nothing to do with Quent or the TP or the Windblown. She will have discovered what he is really up to, using her as a pawn for his own selfish ends and basically undermining he goal to stamp out slavery.

 

[Hugorfonics]

53 minutes ago, John Suburbs said:

So why would she agree to betray Illyrio just because Quentyn is now dead?

I mean, you remember how adwd ends?

54 minutes ago, John Suburbs said:

How so? It wasn't Quent who brought the Windblown to Dany, nor was he the reason they joined her cause in exchange for her help with Pentos, which she refused

It was Quentyn who brought the windblown and his two friends into treason, Barri then promises the Tattered Prince whatever Quentyn promised. Which is Pentos.

59 minutes ago, John Suburbs said:

I do think there is a good chance that Dany will turn against Illyrio eventually if she ever leaves Slaver's Bay, but it will have nothing to do with Quent or the TP or the Windblown. She will have discovered what he is really up to, using her as a pawn for his own selfish ends and basically undermining he goal to stamp out slavery.

Nah she'll invade as a pawn of a tattered prince and a dead frog