Mace Tyrell is a fool

[Angel Eyes]

25 minutes ago, saltedmalted said:

 

You are downplaying Martells hatred of the Lannisters. OTOH you are also creating a feud with Highgarden when it doesn't really exist. 

 

Cersei’s trying to create a feud.

[John Suburbs]

14 hours ago, saltedmalted said:

Martell-Lannister alliance was supposed to wash out the past, or so the Lannisters believe. Mace should know better than that.

Tyrion's offer was a sign of true desperation, not the making of a great alliance. Dorne has not forgotten Elia.

You are downplaying Martells hatred of the Lannisters. OTOH you are also creating a feud with Highgarden when it doesn't really exist. 

Doran did not do that even when Joffrey was getting wrecked by everyone. 

I admit that conquering all parts of Westeros isn't realistic for Mace which is why I don't consider going for the IT a realistic choice.

The throne is worthless on its own. Tommen and Joffrey would end up kings of nothing unless Mace intervened.

What can the Lannisters give to his family?

Why should he help the Lannisters and entangle his house into their feuds? Mace has no problem with the North and the Riverlands.

You keep ignoring that the Iron Throne does not control Westeros. 

The Lannisters were already fighting an dying. Mace chose to share Joffrey's enemies. 

How was Joffrey supposed to "take" the Eyrie, Storm's End, Winterfell, Sunspear?

How will Tywin Lannister's scraps conquer Westeros?

The Tyrells will have to do most of the conquering, the Lannisters are spent.

The Lannisters are getting destroyed right now. 

Yes, and after Robert's death the illusion had been broken. 

I won't feel any pity for the misfortune which will befall the Tyrells. They chose their fate.

Wash out the past. OK, so why would washing out the past mean that Mace could just take the throne by force and Dorne should become the vassal of their eons-old enemy? I can't even follow your arguments anymore.

Agreed, Dorne is not a great ally and probably won't be for long. The same is true for the Tyrells. So again, what does any of this have to do with Dorne meekly accepting Mace as their king?

I'm not downplaying anything. Martells hate Lannisters and are trying to bring them down. Yet they form an alliance with them. Why? Because it is often easier to destroy someone from the inside rather than fight them openly -- especially when that someone wields as much power as Tywin Lannister. To quote a certain schemer: "Which is more dangerous, the dagger brandished by an enemy, or the hidden one pressed to your back by someone you never even see?"

Um, the Martell hatred for the Lanns is less then 20 years old. The hatred between Reach and Dorne dates back thousands. Read the World Book.

In what way did Joffrey do any "wrecking" in Dorne? But yes, there was always a chance that Dorne would not only sit out the war, or even join Stannis, but would secede from the kindgom as well. Thus, the offer of Myrcella. It's all explained in the relevant Tyrion PoVs.

No, conquering all is not a realistic choice, and neither is taking the IT by force. The Tyrells only option was to marry the throne, put their own man or woman on it, and then dominate both their allies and enemies alike. This is the answer to your OP. If you don't want to hear the answer, don't ask the question.

Exactly, the throne is worthless on its own, and Joffrey/Tommen would be kings of hardly anything if Tywin had to conquer everybody. So he allies with two of the strongest houses, Martell and Tyrell. Right off the bat, he has nearly half the kingdom in hand. It was the only rational choice for both Tywin and Lady Olenna.

What can the Lannisters give to the Tyrells, you mean? A kingdom. They can't get one on their own, even if they do take the Iron Throne.

Lady Olenna wants a Tyrell king. The easiest way to get that is by marrying one. Look closely at Mace's children: two sons born a few years apart in the mid-70s. Then, immediately after Rhaegar is married and starts having children in 281, we suddenly get Loras and Margaery. This is how it often went with the nobility in Europe: if they couldn't marry a daughter to a crown prince or a king, they immediately started churning out children to make a play for the next generation. And with Margaery, we can clearly see what the intent for her was with the tell-tale ae digraph in her name that makes her seem oh-so Targaryen.

These are not "feuds" that have nothing to do with the Tyrells. This is the Game of Thrones. Why should the Tyrells have gotten involved with Aerys and all his problems? It had nothing to do with them, other than who they would be expected to owe fealty to after the dust settles. Robb's objective is to march on KL and behead Joffrey, Cersei and whomever else he chooses. This makes it the Tyrell's business because they want a Tyrell ruling the kingdom, not a Stark.

I'm not the one ignoring that the IT does not rule Westeros. If you scroll up, I'm the one who pointed out that fact to you when you said all Mace had to do was take KL and sit his arse on the throne all by himself. That's not good enough. He would have to conquer his way to an actual kingship and that is not a realistic option, even for the Tyrells. 

OK, so Lannisters are fighting and dying. You don't think Tyrells would have to fight and die to first defeat Stannis, then take KL, then march on each and every great house in order to make the throne worth having?

The Eyrie was sitting out the war so far. Littlefinger would have delivered it, just like he did. Storm's End would sit isolated for as long as it took. The Lannister-Tyrell alliance brings most of the storm lords, and Stannis' defeat would have brought in the others. He escaped, though, but his lords' castles are still ripe for the taking. Then they could elevate anyone to be the new Lord of the Stormlands and let Storm's End starve, even if it takes years. They don't need to take Sunspear because they are part of the alliance. Winterfell would be tough to take by force, but they have Sansa and her's is the most legitimate claim. All they need to do is defeat the northern army.

How will Tywin's "scraps" (if you consider 20k+ to be scraps) conquer Westeros? They can't, thus the alliances with Martell and Tyrell.

The Lannisters are not spent. They had some 20k in KL after the Blackwater. Like I've said over and over, Tywin is not bringing military strength to this alliance. He is offering the Tyrells a quick and easy path to an actual kingdom, and between the two of them they have enough might to bring the rest to heel.

And the throne would be even more illusory with Mace sitting on it. By marring Margaery to Joffrey, they get the throne and five-sevenths of the previous kingdom, whereas with just Mace they get one-seventh -- the seventh they already have.

[Moiraine Sedai]

On 3/8/2021 at 6:21 AM, saltedmalted said:

Why does he go around crowning other would-be-kings when he could reap rewards by simply staying out?

Mace could crown himself if that is what his pride demands. Many people say that he couldn't do so because he had no "claim" but what claim did Renly have?

Crowning Joffrey also makes little sense from a rational cost-benefit point of view. The Lannisters were facing certain defeat unless Mace chose to bail them out.

Why should Mace save the Lannisters when he could get great leverage by just sitting at home?

The Lannisters we're his best ladders to get closer to the throne.  He has a daughter to offer the Lannisters.  Having a queen in the family elevates his social standing.  

[Universal Sword Donor]

1 hour ago, Moiraine Sedai said:

The Lannisters we're his best ladders to get closer to the throne.  He has a daughter to offer the Lannisters.  Having a queen in the family elevates his social standing.  

It's literally the exact same reason he marries Marg to Renly. He wants a royal grandson.

[saltedmalted]

18 hours ago, Moiraine Sedai said:

The Lannisters we're his best ladders to get closer to the throne. 

The throne was a useless chair. It controlled nothing.

[Lord Varys]

On 3/8/2021 at 12:55 PM, The hairy bear said:

A scenario where the Stannis crushes the Lannisters would be the last thing Mace would want. Stannis has a personal enmity towards Mace (since the siege of Storm's End during the Rebellion), and is widely known to be resentful and vindictive. On top of that, he is trying to impose a new religion by the means of burning the relics of the current one, which happens to has it's central see in the Reach.

The central see of the Faith is in KL, not in the Reach. The Starry Sept no longer is the seat of the High Septon.

And while Stannis doesn't like Mace Tyrell all that much, he doesn't really hate the guy. Mace did his duty to his king, as Stannis did to his brother. He has no real right to fault the Tyrells for doing what they did during the war. Keep in mind that Stannis wanted to take over Renly's entire army, the Tyrells included. He did send envoys to Bitterbridge to ensure that. He failed because the whole thing didn't come with an offer ... and because Loras would never join a man who was directly or indirectly responsible for Renly's death.

But if Stannis had been smart and sent a respected lord as envoy to Highgarden offering Shireen's hand to Willas Tyrell ... and if he had beaten Littlefinger or anybody else in this endeavor chances would be pretty good that the Tyrells would have joined Stannis.

After all, them going with the Lannisters also involved them overcoming quite a little bit of resentment - Loras and Renly had plotted to replace Cersei with Margaery, and then they had tried to oust the Lannister with the help of Renly.

On 3/8/2021 at 12:55 PM, The hairy bear said:

So, if Stannis becomes king, at best aces will be shunned from court and detached of any political influence at best. Or he'd be beheaded for treason at worst. Of course, it would be in Mace's best interests to prevent Stannis to come anywhere near the throne, specially if he is able to negotiate an alliance with another faction that offers his family royal marriages and seats on the Closed Council.

If you stay out of the war until someone becomes the victor, you'll probably find out that he is grateful with the ones that have actually helped him to win the throne. His supporters will be the ones who are favored at court, given prestigious appointments, etc.

Mace Tyrell is motivated by his own ambition. He has close ties to Renly via Loras, and he goes with them. He doesn't have equally strong ties to any of the other Baratheons. This has nothing to do with Stannis or what Stannis might want or do ... it has to do with what Mace and Renly want for Mace and Renly.

On 3/8/2021 at 2:50 PM, Angel Eyes said:

Of course the craziest scheme is the first one where Mace, Renly, and Loras were throwing Margaery at Robert so he’d set Cersei aside and marry Margaery. Tywin would be pissed and the financial backlash would be bad, Joffrey might kill his half-siblings, stuff like that.

Who cares? Margaery would still be queen and Renly and the Tyrells would reap the rewards and favors that come with having their pawn sitting beside the queen instead of Cersei.

[John Suburbs]

On 3/8/2021 at 6:55 AM, The hairy bear said:

A scenario where the Stannis crushes the Lannisters would be the last thing Mace would want. Stannis has a personal enmity towards Mace (since the siege of Storm's End during the Rebellion), and is widely known to be resentful and vindictive. On top of that, he is trying to impose a new religion by the means of burning the relics of the current one, which happens to has it's central see in the Reach.

So, if Stannis becomes king, at best aces will be shunned from court and detached of any political influence at best. Or he'd be beheaded for treason at worst. Of course, it would be in Mace's best interests to prevent Stannis to come anywhere near the throne, specially if he is able to negotiate an alliance with another faction that offers his family royal marriages and seats on the Closed Council.

There's another aspect to this that I don't think many readers have grasped:

Stannis is also married to Selyse Florent. The Florents have long felt they were cheated out of Highgarden following the fall of the Gardeners simply because the Tyrell stewards surrendered it to Aegon. Judging by the Tyrell family tree that we've been shown, in the last few generations we see Tyrells marrying Redwynes, Hightowers, Fossoways, Beesburys, even a Norridge . . . but no Florents.

I don't think this is accidental. There seems to be a distinct effort to keep Florent blood away from Highgarden. Even houses that marry Florents seem to be shunned: Cranes, Tarlys, etc. The one exception seems to be Leyton Hightower to Rhea Florent, whose daughter Alerie married Mace, which I can only imagine sticks in Lady Olenna's craw to this day -- and it might even be the reason she offed Lord Luthor.

So with Stannis as king, the Tyrells might not expect any favors, but with Selyse as queen they have a lot to fear. Queens have enormous sway when it comes to brokering marriages among the nobility (see Alysanne Targaryen). This gives Selyse substantial influence to arrange marriages in the Reach to her liking, effectively raising the Florent's profile while diminishing the Tyrells, perhaps one day transferring control of Highgarden itself.

This, I think, is the true reason they (meaning Lady Olenna, who is the one who makes all the important decisions) opposed Stannis.

[Angel Eyes]

10 hours ago, Lord Varys said:

 

Who cares? Margaery would still be queen and Renly and the Tyrells would reap the rewards and favors that come with having their pawn sitting beside the queen instead of Cersei.

I think the drawbacks to the plan aren’t worth the risk, like, as I said, Joffrey deciding to kill Margaery’s kids with Robert because he felt like it.

[Lord Varys]

8 minutes ago, Angel Eyes said:

I think the drawbacks to the plan aren’t worth the risk, like, as I said, Joffrey deciding to kill Margaery’s kids with Robert because he felt like it.

That was only a risk in your head ... because it involves people viewing Joffrey as a factor. Which clearly nobody did back in AGoT. Hell, not even in ACoK is the kid really a factor. People blame Tyrion and Cersei for the things who go wrong, not the royal boy ... because he is still a boy.

Only in ASoS do people - Tywin, Olenna, Tyrion - start to take Joffrey seriously as a political factor.

And to be sure - the political repercussions of Cersei being replaced with Margaery would have been severe. Cersei is the daughter of one of the most feared lord in the Realm. If Robert had gone through with that it may have resulted in him cutting his children by Cersei from the succession in the wake of some Lannister uprising.

After all, if Robert were to do this he would have to be as obsessed with Margaery as he was with Lyanna ... and Renly's plan clearly was to get Robert to that stage. He would have done anything to be with Margaery then, including things no or very few kings did before.

[Angel Eyes]

4 minutes ago, Lord Varys said:

That was only a risk in your head ... because it involves people viewing Joffrey as a factor. Which clearly nobody did back in AGoT. Hell, not even in ACoK is the kid really a factor. People blame Tyrion and Cersei for the things who go wrong, not the royal boy ... because he is still a boy.

Only in ASoS do people - Tywin, Olenna, Tyrion - start to take Joffrey seriously as a political factor.

And to be sure - the political repercussions of Cersei being replaced with Margaery would have been severe. Cersei is the daughter of one of the most feared lord in the Realm. If Robert had gone through with that it may have resulted in him cutting his children by Cersei from the succession in the wake of some Lannister uprising.

After all, if Robert were to do this he would have to be as obsessed with Margaery as he was with Lyanna ... and Renly's plan clearly was to get Robert to that stage. He would have done anything to be with Margaery then, including things no or very few kings did before.

That would be another drawback, yes.

[Lord Varys]

5 hours ago, John Suburbs said:

There's another aspect to this that I don't think many readers have grasped:

Stannis is also married to Selyse Florent. The Florents have long felt they were cheated out of Highgarden following the fall of the Gardeners simply because the Tyrell stewards surrendered it to Aegon. Judging by the Tyrell family tree that we've been shown, in the last few generations we see Tyrells marrying Redwynes, Hightowers, Fossoways, Beesburys, even a Norridge . . . but no Florents.

I don't think this is accidental. There seems to be a distinct effort to keep Florent blood away from Highgarden. Even houses that marry Florents seem to be shunned: Cranes, Tarlys, etc. The one exception seems to be Leyton Hightower to Rhea Florent, whose daughter Alerie married Mace, which I can only imagine sticks in Lady Olenna's craw to this day -- and it might even be the reason she offed Lord Luthor.

So with Stannis as king, the Tyrells might not expect any favors, but with Selyse as queen they have a lot to fear. Queens have enormous sway when it comes to brokering marriages among the nobility (see Alysanne Targaryen). This gives Selyse substantial influence to arrange marriages in the Reach to her liking, effectively raising the Florent's profile while diminishing the Tyrells, perhaps one day transferring control of Highgarden itself.

This, I think, is the true reason they (meaning Lady Olenna, who is the one who makes all the important decisions) opposed Stannis.

That is a kind of weird line of argumentation since there is actually only a very low chance that the Tyrells have already acquired a lot of Florent blood - not necessarily directly, since there were are no known marriages between the two houses, but indirectly by marrying women from other houses who do have Florent ancestors.

In the end this whole thing boils down to the Florents (still) thinking Highgarden is theirs by right because back during the Conquest the Lord Florent there had some unspecified close blood ties to the last Gardener king. If Lord Alester is descended from such a relation of King Mern in direct male line then it makes sense that the Florents still fancy themselves the rightful heirs of the Reach ... but that would have to do nothing with the question whether the Tyrells also acquired some (more) Florent blood in the meantime or not.

The bottom line is: If Stannis had been the first to offer Mace a deal - like marrying Shireen to Willas or even setting aside Selyse in favor of Margaery or some other Tyrell woman - then Mace would have likely accepted after Renly's death.

He doesn't really have more love for the Lannisters than he has for Stannis. The reason this didn't happen is because Stannis never thought about/bothered to consider to make such an offer. And it might very well be that his experience at Storm's End played a role in that decision.

But the idea that Mace actually fears or deeply loathes Stannis is so far unsupported.

I actually don't think Mace Tyrell fears much, nor do the other members in his family. They have nerves of steel considering how well they played everyone at Joffrey's wedding feast.

[Angel Eyes]

3 minutes ago, Lord Varys said:

That is a kind of weird line of argumentation since there is actually only a very low chance that the Tyrells have already acquired a lot of Florent blood - not necessarily directly, since there were are no known marriages between the two houses, but indirectly by marrying women from other houses who do have Florent ancestors.

In the end this whole thing boils down to the Florents (still) thinking Highgarden is theirs by right because back during the Conquest the Lord Florent there had some unspecified close blood ties to the last Gardener king. If Lord Alester is descended from such a relation of King Mern in direct male line then it makes sense that the Florents still fancy themselves the rightful heirs of the Reach ... but that would have to do nothing with the question whether the Tyrells also acquired some (more) Florent blood in the meantime or not.

The bottom line is: If Stannis had been the first to offer Mace a deal - like marrying Shireen to Willas or even setting aside Selyse in favor of Margaery or some other Tyrell woman - then Mace would have likely accepted after Renly's death.

He doesn't really have more love for the Lannisters than he has for Stannis. The reason this didn't happen is because Stannis never thought about/bothered to consider to make such an offer. And it might very well be that his experience at Storm's End played a role in that decision.

But the idea that Mace actually fears or deeply loathes Stannis is so far unsupported.

I actually don't think Mace Tyrell fears much, nor do the other members in his family. They have nerves of steel considering how well they played everyone at Joffrey's wedding feast.

Stannis dislikes the Tyrells more than the other way around for the Siege at Storm’s End.

[Darth Sidious]

On 3/8/2021 at 6:21 AM, saltedmalted said:

Why does he go around crowning other would-be-kings when he could reap rewards by simply staying out?

Mace could crown himself if that is what his pride demands. Many people say that he couldn't do so because he had no "claim" but what claim did Renly have?

Crowning Joffrey also makes little sense from a rational cost-benefit point of view. The Lannisters were facing certain defeat unless Mace chose to bail them out.

Why should Mace save the Lannisters when he could get great leverage by just sitting at home?

Perhaps his pride doesn’t demand that. Getting one of his children into the royal bed is enough.  His grandies will be Princes, Kings, and Princesses. Those titles alone elevate them far above the stations of lords and ladies. 

[Moiraine Sedai]

On 3/11/2021 at 3:22 PM, Universal Sword Donor said:

It's literally the exact same reason he marries Marg to Renly. He wants a royal grandson.

Yes

[Moiraine Sedai]

On 3/11/2021 at 3:22 PM, Universal Sword Donor said:

It's literally the exact same reason he marries Marg to Renly. He wants a royal grandson.

The joke was on him. Renly had a different interest in gender. 

[Lord Varys]

On 3/11/2021 at 9:22 PM, Universal Sword Donor said:

It's literally the exact same reason he marries Marg to Renly. He wants a royal grandson.

All we know is that Mace wants his daughter to be a queen ... once the Renly offer is on the table. We have no idea what he thought about Margaery replacing Cersei as Robert's queen since that was, apparently, Renly's idea.

And it is really enough for him to have a daughter as queen because that means power, favors, money, titles, office will be thrown in the direction of House Tyrell.

Considering life expectancy in this world Mace cannot really expect to live long enough to see a grandson of his ascend the throne ... nor can he count on Margaery having children who would inherit - she could only have daughters (and that could mean that the throne goes to a brother or nephew of the king), her children could predecease the king, meaning he could eventually remarry, especially if Margaery herself was to die in childbirth which seems to happen very often.

And so on.

Of course, the hope when you arrange a royal marriage is that it will bear dynastic fruit and a child from that union will continue the royal bloodline ... but there is no guarantee for that.

 

[FictionIsntReal]

On 3/8/2021 at 7:45 AM, saltedmalted said:

Even if you believe the blood argument Joffrey, Tommen, Stannis will still come ahead of Renly.

Robert was also below a number of Targaryens in the succession, but by killing/exiling them all he became the top contender for the throne.

On 3/8/2021 at 7:50 AM, Angel Eyes said:

Joffrey might kill his half-siblings, stuff like that.

Renly knew about the incest, all of Cersei's kids would be gone and the Lannisters would be disgraced.

On 3/8/2021 at 7:59 AM, Loose Bolt said:

North [...] would almost certainly not kneel to Stannis either

Eddard was planning on Stannis succeeding Robert. Northmen & Ironborn are both already adherents of a different religion from the crown, so that wouldn't really be different with Stannis.

On 3/8/2021 at 10:18 AM, John Suburbs said:

That would be stupid. She and Littlefinger were trying to kill Tyrion by poisoning his pie, but Joffrey ate it instead.

Why is this being relitigated? I thought this ended when I pointed out that the official app said it was the wine that was poisoned.

On 3/8/2021 at 10:42 AM, saltedmalted said:

After Robert's death the throne's authority became illusionary.

No, controlling the capital is still valuable and has enabled the Lannisters to stay on top despite their numerous enemies and Robb repeatedly winning on the field. One might also compare the Russian Civil War when the Bolsheviks were opposed by numerous opponents whose division enabled the Red Army to defeat each in turn until they controlled the whole country.

On 3/8/2021 at 12:21 PM, saltedmalted said:

Starks and Tullies wouldn't accept Renly

If Renly killed Stannis in battle they might conclude he's sufficiently preferable to the Lannisters to accept his rule.

Quote

[Mace joining the STAB alliance made sense when Robert was alive

Robert didn't need him as long as he had the Lannisters.

Quote

This is roughly what the Vale did. It has vey low risk of going wrong.

It's not what the Vale lords wanted, it's what LF told Lysa to do. He didn't give that order for the benefit of the Vale, but instead to enable the Lannisters to have an initial advantage and then to be weakened once he'd left.

Quote

This carries far more danger than 1 or 2, with few upsides.

The upside is his daughter becomes queen, with the support of her husband's loyalists.

On 3/9/2021 at 2:25 AM, Buried Treasure said:

He didn't know about the incest & believed Joff to be Robert's heir

Pycelle knew, Varys knew, LF knew, Stannis knew, Arryn & Stark both figured it out before they were killed. Renly has Robert's own bastard (with his likeness) in his castle. Our concept of divorce doesn't really exist in Westeros, with annulment limited to cases where the wedding itself is somehow considered invalid (which does include non-consummation). Knowing about the incest perfectly fits his situation and his plan. The alternative would need some justification for us to believe it.

On 3/9/2021 at 11:26 AM, John Suburbs said:

Really Mace? Throw all your forces against one of the most impenetrable structures in the kingdom?

It actually would have been better for Robb to have abandoned the Riverlands.

Quote

She's in Essos. Why should she bother with Westeros?

Why should she bother with Essos? The Targaryens have a claim to Westeros, people who were loyal to them even when they shouldn't have been, and the throne is currently weak.

On 3/9/2021 at 8:28 PM, saltedmalted said:

The Lannisters are getting destroyed right now.

By who? The Golden Company?

[Aldarion]

8 hours ago, FictionIsntReal said:

It actually would have been better for Robb to have abandoned the Riverlands.

 

Maybe not. From a purely strategic perspective this is correct - Riverlands are nearly indefensible. But from a political perspective - well, his mother is a Tully, who are Lords Paramount of Riverlands. If he abandoned Riverlands, he would be abandoning his familial ties and duty... I don't think anyone would have trusted him after that. He could as well give up not just crown but being a lord.

[SeanF]

On 3/12/2021 at 10:35 PM, Lord Varys said:

That was only a risk in your head ... because it involves people viewing Joffrey as a factor. Which clearly nobody did back in AGoT. Hell, not even in ACoK is the kid really a factor. People blame Tyrion and Cersei for the things who go wrong, not the royal boy ... because he is still a boy.

Only in ASoS do people - Tywin, Olenna, Tyrion - start to take Joffrey seriously as a political factor.

And to be sure - the political repercussions of Cersei being replaced with Margaery would have been severe. Cersei is the daughter of one of the most feared lord in the Realm. If Robert had gone through with that it may have resulted in him cutting his children by Cersei from the succession in the wake of some Lannister uprising.

After all, if Robert were to do this he would have to be as obsessed with Margaery as he was with Lyanna ... and Renly's plan clearly was to get Robert to that stage. He would have done anything to be with Margaery then, including things no or very few kings did before.

Setting Cersei aside would surely guarantee a civil war between her children and any children by Margarey.

[saltedmalted]

13 hours ago, FictionIsntReal said:

Robert was also below a number of Targaryens in the succession, but by killing/exiling them all he became the top contender for the throne.

Mace must fight a costly war to put Renly on the throne. Why should he do that?

The throne matters only if it gives you legitimacy, i.e. lets you impose your will without great bloodshed. 

Robert became the king because Ned, Jon and Hoster agreed. The blood claim was a paper thin excuse. 

13 hours ago, FictionIsntReal said:

No, controlling the capital is still valuable and has enabled the Lannisters to stay on top despite their numerous enemies and Robb repeatedly winning on the field.

Holding the capital did not help the Lannisters against Robb. They held on because Tywin Lannister's army had not been destroyed and the Westerlands had not been invaded.

13 hours ago, FictionIsntReal said:

One might also compare the Russian Civil War when the Bolsheviks were opposed by numerous opponents whose division enabled the Red Army to defeat each in turn until they controlled the whole country.

This is a spurious comparison. 

13 hours ago, FictionIsntReal said:

If Renly killed Stannis in battle they might conclude he's sufficiently preferable to the Lannisters to accept his rule.

How would Renly make the Starks and the Tullies submit without Mace?

13 hours ago, FictionIsntReal said:

If Renly killed Stannis in battle they might conclude he's sufficiently preferable to the Lannisters to accept his rule.

Robert didn't need the Lannisters because he had the STAB alliance. His gluttony and stupidity is the only reason why the Lannisters managed to get a foothold.

13 hours ago, FictionIsntReal said:

It's not what the Vale lords wanted, it's what LF told Lysa to do.

Did I mention the lords of the Vale?

13 hours ago, FictionIsntReal said:

The upside is his daughter becomes queen, with the support of her husband's loyalists.

 His daughter becomes queen because of his swords. Why does he need Renly if Highgarden is the real power?

Renly has no legitimacy beyond the Stormlands.

13 hours ago, FictionIsntReal said:

By who? The Golden Company?

When Mace decided to ally with the Lannisters they were losing.