Mace Tyrell is a fool

[John Suburbs]

On 3/20/2021 at 12:44 PM, frenin said:

 

In the very introduction of the books.

 

The only times Stannis even bothers to listen to his wife is when he's desperate. I don't think that a King Stannis would be desperate.

 

He murdered his brother to get his army.

Uncomfortable = loathed? Seems like you're playing rather fast and loose with your vocabulary.

But he does listen to her. He might not agree with what she says, but he doesn't agree with a lot of people, like Axell and even Melisandre. Yet he still keeps them in his counsel. And you're quote says he is uncomfortable around women, so why would they expect he will suddenly fall in the Margaery's bed just because she winks at him.

In Stannis mind he murdered no one. He had dreams of shadows and swords, but dreams are not real. Brienne and Catelyn murdered Renly.

[Lord Varys]

8 hours ago, John Suburbs said:

Sorry Varys, but no. Mace backs down because Cersei is too old and used, but he cares nothing that mad psycho Joffrey will beat Margy to an inch of her life the moment he gets his hands on her? Without Margaery, there is no alliance, remember? Try again.

Mace doesn't really seem to grasp that Margaery-Joff + Loras as KG are a recipe for another kingslaying ... that's how Littlefinger manipulates Olenna into arranging Joffrey's murder.

Whether Mace cares enough about his only daughter to stop the wedding if he had known is unclear. But Olenna chose not to tell him because she figured they could go along with the Lannister alliance by removing Joff from the board and marry Margaery to Tommen.

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Olenna didn't "point out her flaws." She hectored him mercilessly until he relented. This is not a "mysogynistic Lannister interpretation." We see this with our own eyes, at Tywin's funeral. And we also see this in the very same conversation where Olenna first pretends that iron-willed Mace is hell bent on marrying Margaery to mad Joffrey, but then:

You are conflating the Willas-Sansa match and the Margaery-Joff match - the latter is apparently Mace's priority. He decided that they would do this, that he wanted Margaery to be queen. But the former might not exactly be his turf. It is easily imaginable that Willas and Olenna get along very well, and Mace had agreed a long time ago to not force his heir into a marriage with a woman his mother did not approve.

And at the funeral Olenna merely stopped Mace from making a fool of himself in front of the entire court and start a quarrel with the Queen Regent ... she didn't tell him what do.

If Olenna were running House Tyrell she would right now be with Mace and Randyll at court ... but she is nowhere to be seen, despite the fact that the life and honor of her granddaughter hangs in the balance.

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So here she is not only commanding her son to bring Sansa to Highgarden, she is also planning the marriage of his son and heir without his knowledge, confident that he will do her bidding when he's told. And she is actually insulted at the notion that Mace has any say in the matter. This is how you can spot a liar: when they say one thing one minute and another in the next.

The inclination there clearly is that Mace (and Willas) would both not oppose the Sansa Stark match when things are about to go down ... and if Mace were to resist the idea then Olenna could always reveal what she and Margaery and Garlan and Alerie and whoever else was in on the Joffrey plot did and that not taking Sansa to Highgarden would risk the Lannisters found out what had actually transpired.

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I am sure that Olenna's views on Renly are exactly as she says, but that doesn't mean she is not the one to arrange the marriage. Renly is just a means to an end. He is the best king they have and all they need from him is his seed. Olenna is equally dismissive about virtually everyone else, including her oaf son whom she supposedly fears so very much.

Nobody said Olenna fears her son ... but she cannot control his policies or ambitions. And she is blunt about this. Renly used the Tyrells in his bid to take the Iron Throne, not the Tyrells Renly.

Renly is the one adored by his people, including many lords and knights from the Reach ... and Mace Tyrell, his two elder sons, and many others of his family are actually not with Renly's army. They do support Renly, but they could have done much more.

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Lady Olenna is already fully aware of the true nature of Joffrey. Every person who has ever seen him, including Loras, Horace, Hobber, their pages, squires, servants and even Renly himself, who would have regaled her nightly about all the skeletons in the Baratheon closet, would have told her the same thing: he's a rotten little shit. The only person to tell her otherwise is Littlefinger, and we are expected to believe that based on that lie and that lie alone the Tyrells agreed to the match. And when she does discover this lie, not from Petyr but from Sansa, we are expected to believe that she is such a great fool that she instantly agrees to this plan where she gives him the huge chalice first, then she must somehow poison it at a time when the entire Tyrell family, everyone she holds near and dead, are in the throne room surrounded by Lannister guards -- and all the while the known unrepentant liar and double-crosser is safe and sound out on his boat, way out in the bay, waiting to collect his prize, or split to Essos should anything go wrong. Sorry, but no, no, no, no.

That's just nonsense - Joffrey's true nature (or what you think is his true nature) only gradually revealed itself during his reign. Prior to that, there was little troubling stuff. And what Joff personally did was stupid and somewhat harsh, but certainly within the kind of thing you would expect from a prince in this world.

Joff humiliating and torturing Sansa isn't something that has to imply he would also mistreat Margaery.

You are also confusing things big time here - Littlefinger spread the tale of virtuous Joffrey publicly at Highgarden, but had his people tell the truth in secret. The plot to murder Joffrey was hatched by Olenna and Littlefinger (due to Littlefinger's manipulation) at Highgarden ... a truth we know from the fact that Littlefinger handed the hairnet to Sansa via Dontos immediately after his return to the city.

That means that the details of the plot involving the hairnet were already laid out this early.

Sansa just confirmed what Olenna and Margaery had already learned about Joffrey. That is why they do not act surprised when she tells them. It was a last independent verification of things to ensure Littlefinger and his people had not been lying.

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The Redwyne twins only became hostages after Highgarden declared for Renly. They were members of court for at least a year before that, maybe longer. And once Lady Olenna arrived in KL as a Lannister ally, she would have had ample opportunity to meet with her grandsons and learn all that they had seen and heard.

We were talking about the role of the Redwynes back when Ned was arrested and then later executed. Of course, the Redwynes would also be questioned by Olenna later on, but as ASoS makes pretty clear Olenna and Margaery want to hear Sansa's version of the story - they want her viewpoint, not hearsay and rumors.

Olenna doesn't care all that much about Joff's general personality - her concern is with his attitude towards his future bride. And that's what they need Sansa's testimony for.

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Exactly, sister-in-law to the king is in no position to broker marriages in the Reach. But a queen can, especially when the king has no reason to reward the ruling family that tried to usurp his rightful crown. And again, no, Stannis is not the sort of man to break his vows and defy his church (whichever one he follows now) to dispose of his wife. Melisandre might do that on her own if her fires direct her to, but there is absolutely no way the Tyrells would or could count on that to put Margaery on the throne. That's just ridiculous.

Nobody ever said the Tyrells should expect Stannis to do this. Don't twist my words! I said that the idea that the Tyrells would not accept an offer from Stannis involving Willas-Shireen and/or Margaery instead of Selyse as Stannis' queen is a stupid idea because there is no indication the Tyrells have issues with or fear Stannis, personally.

I also said that there is no indication that the Tyrells would ever fear a Queen Selyse because they should have ample reports (especially from Renly) how well Stannis and his wife get along.

And of course Stannis is the man to break vows - the man had his brother murdered, allowed his sister-in-law to murder his other brother the king, commits adultery with a foreign witch to create abominable shadow assassins, turns on the old and new gods both, and considers to sacrifice his own nephew. He even allowed his witch to murder his surrogate father and didn't punish her afterwards.

Setting aside a woman he does not love for political gain sounds exactly like something Stannis would do. And he might still do that, if he ever gets into a position where he could broker a new marriage with a powerful player.

The reason why he kept Selyse so far, in my opinion, just is that Selyse was the one who gave him Melisandre ... and Selyse's folks were also the original queen's men, i.e. that faction at his court who supported the Melisandre play. He needed them all to push through his Mel agenda.

But there might come a time when he no longer needs them. And then he could set aside Selyse.

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Robert sent Davos a meal once and somehow this gives Selyse the ability to overrule marriages in the Reach? Are you kidding?

I didn't say anything about marriage, I spoke about general favors and patronage. Selyse failed to secure any patronage for her family (Axell aside), and even after Stannis is king she cannot save her uncle Alester from Stannis' wrath (which I think she may have wanted to do). Axell cannot do that, either. This shows how unbending and tyrannical Stannis is - he makes his own decisions, and if he were ever in a position of real power - which him being on the Iron Throne would mean - he would *never* listen to the advice or demands of his stupid wife.

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Stannis appointed Alester as Hand, after Alester originally supported Renly. Do you think Selyse had nothing to do with that decision? Then he burned him alive Was this over Selyse's objections? She was quite pleased with it, IIRC. He also brings her to the Wall when he could have easily left her on Dragonstone to an uncertain fate. Stannis keeps his own counsel. He also dismissed Axell's war plans, but keeps him on as a war commander. Selyse isn't savvy on war and politics, but that doesn't mean that Stannis is just going to dump her.

Go back and double check ACoK. Alester joins Stannis at Storm's End and from that point on he is high in his council. And profits even more from the fact that (supposedly) most of the men who return from the Blackwater and help Stannis escape are Florent men.

The decision to sacrifice Alester most likely goes back to Mel's instigation who demanded this to summon the winds to carry them swiftly to the Wall. And Selyse would never argue against anything Melisandre said. But there is no indication that she is happy about her uncle being burned alive.

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Nowhere in the text does it say that Jon is the son of Rhaegar and Lyanna. Connecting the dots is one of the best things about reading Martin. The Florents are "dreadful" and have a better claim to Highgarden. Those are the dots, just like Sweetrobin's fostering dispute was one of the dots to the truth behind the Arryn murder.

We do have more than just dots in those cases ... whereas there are no further dots in the 'the Tyrells are afraid of Queen Selyse Florent' department.

I mean, mind you, this could be an interesting subplot. I'd like it if there were any such dots, it isn't a bad idea. But there is just no substance to this.

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Stannis cannot just "set her aside", not if he wants a stable realm. His hold on the throne would be very shaky, and making the faith his newest enemy is the last thing he would want to do. He would be wiser to get rid of Mel at that point. And none of this is a better option for the Tyrells than to just marry Margy to the brother who is single, and then use their might to destroy Stannis and his meager forces before marching on KL and taking the throne.

Nobody would care about Selyse Florent. She comes from a pretty weak house, is neither attractive nor charismatic or popular ... and neither are her male family members. If Stannis were to offer to take Margaery instead of Selyse the Reach would consider that a great idea.

I mean, you recall that these people - the Florents included - were supporting 'King Renly', right?

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If Stannis wanted to offer Shireen (who is what, all of 9 at this point?) to 30+/- Willas Tyrell, he would have done so. But the fact is that once Ned had been cast down and it was clear that Joffrey would hold the throne for now, there was no time because Renly immediately fled to Highgarden. 

My idea never was that Stannis do this when Robert died ... but after he had killed Renly at Storm's End. Send envoys to Bitterbridge/Highgarden - or go yourself - and offer the Shireen deal and, in addition (and if this is necessary), also yourself for Margaery with Selyse being set aside.

The idea that Stannis would do this after Robert's death was never on the table. And it is just something he should have considered in light of the fact that he did just murder Renly and fail to secure Renly's entire army. They were in his rear and could - and eventually did - become a major problem.

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If this offer was presented, then Mace would have blustered just like he did when Joffrey was offered, and Lady Olenna would have rejected it because it would put a dreadful Florent on the throne who could then marginalize Tyrell power in the Reach and enhance the Florent's. This is what the Game of Thrones is all about. It's not hard to understand.

That makes no sense considering if Shireen were married to Willas then a Tyrell would become king/prince consort of the Seven Kingdoms after Stannis' death - or a Baratheon-Tyrell grandson the new king if Shireen died early. And the Florents could be taken out of the equation by Stannis offering to take Margaery as his new wife.

He would not even have to formally set Selyse aside - they would have also gone with Margaery as Stannis' second wife. And with his queer new religion, Stannis could easily enough find a pretext for polygamy - which could also find among the Targaryen and First Men kings of Westeros.

[frenin]

13 hours ago, John Suburbs said:

Uncomfortable = loathed? Seems like you're playing rather fast and loose with your vocabulary.

But he does listen to her. He might not agree with what she says, but he doesn't agree with a lot of people, like Axell and even Melisandre. Yet he still keeps them in his counsel. And you're quote says he is uncomfortable around women, so why would they expect he will suddenly fall in the Margaery's bed just because she winks at him.

In Stannis mind he murdered no one. He had dreams of shadows and swords, but dreams are not real. Brienne and Catelyn murdered Renly.

 

1) He has never had a good word to her and he's always angry and disdainful with her...

 

2) He only listens to her when he's desperate, he stops listening when he's not. And the more time it passes he only listens what comes to Mel's mouth... When he's desperate.

 

2) As Davos point the manner in which Stannis treats Selyse is very different than the way he treats Meli. Davos also points that while Melisandre is beautiful, Selyse... isn't.

 

4) Stannis knows he was going to kill Renly. What he tells to Davos is pure denial. When he's told about how Renly would die, Cressen knows the truth and calls it fratricide. Stannis still goes.

 

@saltedmalted

He kills Renly because he gains an army in return.

Stannis was not a King in desperate need for a male heir before.

 

 

@Angel Eyes

1) Because Mace wasn't needed elsewhere at the time.

2) He wasn't only laying siege to Storm's End, he was occupying the whole Stormlands, since he was cutting Robert off from reinforcements.

3) Storm's End is smaller than other great seats, it doesn't make it small.

As i said, the reason you're thinking this is purely because the rest of the Commanders from the loyalist side did an astonishingly poor job.

[saltedmalted]

6 hours ago, frenin said:

He kills Renly because he gains an army in return.

Conveniently ignoring why that army was brought together at Bitterbridge.

6 hours ago, frenin said:

Stannis was not a King in desperate need for a male heir before

Stannis has needed an heir for a long time but he has never tried to get a new wife. 

[Lord Varys]

39 minutes ago, saltedmalted said:

Conveniently ignoring why that army was brought together at Bitterbridge.

Stannis has needed an heir for a long time but he has never tried to get a new wife. 

Stannis didn't really need another heir while he was just Lord of Dragonstone. He could pass the lordship to Shireen ... or Robert could take it back and hand to a son or grandson if Shireen predeceased Stannis.

But once Stannis put forth his claim to the Iron Throne he is in need of a male heir considering ruling queens are not exactly popular in Westeros. And Shireen is ill-suited and completely unprepared for the role of queen, anyway.

Also, Stannis does expect to have a son one day - he offered Renly to make him his heir until he has a son, and he only goes with Shireen as his heir after he killed Renly and lost Edric Storm.

[frenin]

2 hours ago, saltedmalted said:

Conveniently ignoring why that army was brought together at Bitterbridge.

To take King's Landing... That army certainly was not there because Stannis.

 

2 hours ago, saltedmalted said:

Stannis has needed an heir for a long time but he has never tried to get a new wife. 

Women are far more likely to inherit lordships without troubles.

And given Shireen's disease, the chance of the Lords putting her on the Throne instead of Renly's line are close to zero.

A male heir changes that.

 

[John Suburbs]

18 hours ago, Lord Varys said:

Mace doesn't really seem to grasp that Margaery-Joff + Loras as KG are a recipe for another kingslaying ... that's how Littlefinger manipulates Olenna into arranging Joffrey's murder.

Whether Mace cares enough about his only daughter to stop the wedding if he had known is unclear. But Olenna chose not to tell him because she figured they could go along with the Lannister alliance by removing Joff from the board and marry Margaery to Tommen.

You are conflating the Willas-Sansa match and the Margaery-Joff match - the latter is apparently Mace's priority. He decided that they would do this, that he wanted Margaery to be queen. But the former might not exactly be his turf. It is easily imaginable that Willas and Olenna get along very well, and Mace had agreed a long time ago to not force his heir into a marriage with a woman his mother did not approve.

And at the funeral Olenna merely stopped Mace from making a fool of himself in front of the entire court and start a quarrel with the Queen Regent ... she didn't tell him what do.

If Olenna were running House Tyrell she would right now be with Mace and Randyll at court ... but she is nowhere to be seen, despite the fact that the life and honor of her granddaughter hangs in the balance.

The inclination there clearly is that Mace (and Willas) would both not oppose the Sansa Stark match when things are about to go down ... and if Mace were to resist the idea then Olenna could always reveal what she and Margaery and Garlan and Alerie and whoever else was in on the Joffrey plot did and that not taking Sansa to Highgarden would risk the Lannisters found out what had actually transpired.

Nobody said Olenna fears her son ... but she cannot control his policies or ambitions. And she is blunt about this. Renly used the Tyrells in his bid to take the Iron Throne, not the Tyrells Renly.

Renly is the one adored by his people, including many lords and knights from the Reach ... and Mace Tyrell, his two elder sons, and many others of his family are actually not with Renly's army. They do support Renly, but they could have done much more.

That's just nonsense - Joffrey's true nature (or what you think is his true nature) only gradually revealed itself during his reign. Prior to that, there was little troubling stuff. And what Joff personally did was stupid and somewhat harsh, but certainly within the kind of thing you would expect from a prince in this world.

Joff humiliating and torturing Sansa isn't something that has to imply he would also mistreat Margaery.

You are also confusing things big time here - Littlefinger spread the tale of virtuous Joffrey publicly at Highgarden, but had his people tell the truth in secret. The plot to murder Joffrey was hatched by Olenna and Littlefinger (due to Littlefinger's manipulation) at Highgarden ... a truth we know from the fact that Littlefinger handed the hairnet to Sansa via Dontos immediately after his return to the city.

That means that the details of the plot involving the hairnet were already laid out this early.

Sansa just confirmed what Olenna and Margaery had already learned about Joffrey. That is why they do not act surprised when she tells them. It was a last independent verification of things to ensure Littlefinger and his people had not been lying.

We were talking about the role of the Redwynes back when Ned was arrested and then later executed. Of course, the Redwynes would also be questioned by Olenna later on, but as ASoS makes pretty clear Olenna and Margaery want to hear Sansa's version of the story - they want her viewpoint, not hearsay and rumors.

Olenna doesn't care all that much about Joff's general personality - her concern is with his attitude towards his future bride. And that's what they need Sansa's testimony for.

Nobody ever said the Tyrells should expect Stannis to do this. Don't twist my words! I said that the idea that the Tyrells would not accept an offer from Stannis involving Willas-Shireen and/or Margaery instead of Selyse as Stannis' queen is a stupid idea because there is no indication the Tyrells have issues with or fear Stannis, personally.

I also said that there is no indication that the Tyrells would ever fear a Queen Selyse because they should have ample reports (especially from Renly) how well Stannis and his wife get along.

And of course Stannis is the man to break vows - the man had his brother murdered, allowed his sister-in-law to murder his other brother the king, commits adultery with a foreign witch to create abominable shadow assassins, turns on the old and new gods both, and considers to sacrifice his own nephew. He even allowed his witch to murder his surrogate father and didn't punish her afterwards.

Setting aside a woman he does not love for political gain sounds exactly like something Stannis would do. And he might still do that, if he ever gets into a position where he could broker a new marriage with a powerful player.

The reason why he kept Selyse so far, in my opinion, just is that Selyse was the one who gave him Melisandre ... and Selyse's folks were also the original queen's men, i.e. that faction at his court who supported the Melisandre play. He needed them all to push through his Mel agenda.

But there might come a time when he no longer needs them. And then he could set aside Selyse.

I didn't say anything about marriage, I spoke about general favors and patronage. Selyse failed to secure any patronage for her family (Axell aside), and even after Stannis is king she cannot save her uncle Alester from Stannis' wrath (which I think she may have wanted to do). Axell cannot do that, either. This shows how unbending and tyrannical Stannis is - he makes his own decisions, and if he were ever in a position of real power - which him being on the Iron Throne would mean - he would *never* listen to the advice or demands of his stupid wife.

Go back and double check ACoK. Alester joins Stannis at Storm's End and from that point on he is high in his council. And profits even more from the fact that (supposedly) most of the men who return from the Blackwater and help Stannis escape are Florent men.

The decision to sacrifice Alester most likely goes back to Mel's instigation who demanded this to summon the winds to carry them swiftly to the Wall. And Selyse would never argue against anything Melisandre said. But there is no indication that she is happy about her uncle being burned alive.

We do have more than just dots in those cases ... whereas there are no further dots in the 'the Tyrells are afraid of Queen Selyse Florent' department.

I mean, mind you, this could be an interesting subplot. I'd like it if there were any such dots, it isn't a bad idea. But there is just no substance to this.

Nobody would care about Selyse Florent. She comes from a pretty weak house, is neither attractive nor charismatic or popular ... and neither are her male family members. If Stannis were to offer to take Margaery instead of Selyse the Reach would consider that a great idea.

I mean, you recall that these people - the Florents included - were supporting 'King Renly', right?

My idea never was that Stannis do this when Robert died ... but after he had killed Renly at Storm's End. Send envoys to Bitterbridge/Highgarden - or go yourself - and offer the Shireen deal and, in addition (and if this is necessary), also yourself for Margaery with Selyse being set aside.

The idea that Stannis would do this after Robert's death was never on the table. And it is just something he should have considered in light of the fact that he did just murder Renly and fail to secure Renly's entire army. They were in his rear and could - and eventually did - become a major problem.

That makes no sense considering if Shireen were married to Willas then a Tyrell would become king/prince consort of the Seven Kingdoms after Stannis' death - or a Baratheon-Tyrell grandson the new king if Shireen died early. And the Florents could be taken out of the equation by Stannis offering to take Margaery as his new wife.

He would not even have to formally set Selyse aside - they would have also gone with Margaery as Stannis' second wife. And with his queer new religion, Stannis could easily enough find a pretext for polygamy - which could also find among the Targaryen and First Men kings of Westeros.

Mace doesn't grasp . . . We all know Mace doesn't grasp because he is an utter nincompoop who doesn't grasp the simplest of concepts. But if Lady O wanted to, she could make him grasp it, just like she made him grasp too-old-and-used Cersei, and she has both Loras and Margaery there to back her up if need be. So sorry Varys, but you've lost this one. The text makes it abundantly clear that Olenna can mercilessly hector Mace out of any decision he makes, particularly when it comes to marriages, she can bully him into shutting his trap and bothering the queen (and yes, she told him, ordered him, outright to stop hectoring her and send a raven to Leyton, immediately), and she doesn't give a whit what he thinks about Sansa and Willas because she is going to make it happen regardless. So much for iron-willed Mace. And if you look at him closely, he doesn't just knuckle under to Olenna but virtually everyone with even a moderately foreceful personality, including his own banners.

Lady Olenna is not a member of the small council, and she left for Highgarden months before Margaery was arrested, where she is now deaing with ironmen on the Mander. She may be on her way back to KL, we don't know. But you can bet that she is not leaving all of this up to her oaf son.

No, the inclination (the fact, actually) is that Olenna will not give Mace a choice in the matter. He will be instructed to ask leave to bring Sansa to Highgarden, and she will be married to Willas with or without Mace's approval or even knowledge, for no other reason than Lady Olenna Tyrell, the true power at Highgarden, wants this to happen.

Joffrey has been a rotten little twat virtually all his life. But you're right, nothing he has done so far would sway Lady Olenna from agreeing to the match, because it is abundantly clear that Margaery is in absolute no danger from him. In fact, it is the exact opposite; Joffrey is the one who should fear Margaery. And this is despite Lady Olenna having full knowledge of everything that Joffrey has done since becoming king, including Sansa's beatings.

Exactly, Sansa's beating in no way imply that he will do the same to Margaery. So why is Lady Olenna taking such an extreme and risky step like killing him at his wedding directly in front of thousands of witnesses when Margaery is in no danger? All she gets for risking her life and the lives of her entire family is a five year wait in an unconsummated marriage, which can be dissolved at any time for any reason by Cersei, who now remains as queen regent, only to eventually become Tommen's relatively powerless queen consort. With Joffrey, she would have had a Tyrell heir to the throne within the year, perhaps another two in five years, and then they could off Joff at any time to make Margaery queen regent, literally ruling the kingdom by fiat the way Cersei does now. So with the wine, it's all risk for Lady O with a less valuable reward at the end, all to avoid a problem that doesn't even exist yet, and probably never will.

If Littlefinger and Olenna hatched the plan at Highgarden, then why is she still concerned by the "disturbing tales" of Joffrey at the dinner? For them to enter into this plot, LF will have confessed his lie, which means all the stories of rotten Joffrey are all in sync and nobody is telling her anything different. So why does she now need to learn the "truth" from Sansa when she has already decided that she must kill him, for reasons which you can't seem to explain because you agree that there is no reason to worry for Margaery's safety?

There is absolutely nothing that connects the appearance of the hairnet to Lady Olenna. Dontos gave it to Sansa, and Dontos worked for LF, not Lady Olenna. And if you really want to see the beginning of this plan, it wasn't at the hairnet, it was the note that Sansa found about meeting in the godswood. This was before LF and the Tyrells returned to the city, before the battle, before Renly was even dead. So all of this was in motion long before LF, LO or anyone had any inkling that Margaery would wind up with Joffrey.

Why would she need to verify any of this through a complete stranger like Sansa? She already has trusted members of her own family, her own grandsons, who can tell her they saw all of these things with their own eyes. This is not hearsay or rumors. These are eyewitness accounts. Lady O doesn't know Sansa from Adam, has no idea if she is what she appears to be, no idea if she has an agenda or is in fact actually working with Littlefinger to ensnare her in some trap. You make Lady O out to be an utter fool.

If the Tyrells are not expecting any kind of offer from Stannis, nor do they have any reason to expect it, then they are not going to sit around and wait for it to happen. Renly is right there at Highgarden, available for marriage and ready to be king. It was your suggestion that could have sided with Stannis and all they would have to do is get rid of one wife, marry him to another, and then marry their son to a child who won't be able to consummate for another four or five years at least. If you are going to propose options like this, at least make sure they are remotely plausible.

Why would Stannis and Selyse need to be star-crossed lovers in order for Selyse to exercise the only real authority she has as queen? The only way Stannis would get involved in marriages in the Reach is if they presented some problem for him politically, which they won't because they are diminishing the power of a house that opposed him, and could do so again, while rewarding the house of his wife. His personal feelings for Selyse have absolutely no bearing on the threat she poses to House Tyrell. And Stannis would not care one way or another who married whom in the Reach, unless it had direct bearing on his rule. Selyse will have complete freedom to hand out any rewards or impose any punishment to align the houses in any way she sees fit.

He made no vows to protect his brother's life, nor his good uncles or brothers. They were traitors and they got what traitors deserve. In his own mind he isn't even a kinslayer because it was the Lord of Light who willed Renly's death while Stannis slept. All he knows of murderous shadows are dreams, and dreams are not real.

Stannis is as rigid a follower of the law as there is. He is suspicious of all women. There is no way they could expect him to start chasing Margaery. Even Cersei knows that is a lost cause.

Stannis and Selyse were married for years before Mel showed up. If he hated her so much and he could just dump her at will, he would have done so. But that would mean breaking his vows and violating the laws of his church, which his sense of honor will not allow.

Of course Selyse cannot arrange any marriages now because Stannis is not sitting on the Iron Throne yet. That's what Lady Olenna is desperately trying to prevent, even to the point of aligning with the most vicious, ruthless warlord the realm has seen in decades and marrying her granddaughter to his loathsome grandson.

Yes, exactly. Stannis accepts Florent fealty and then appoints the lord as his new Hand over his other lords who've been with him since the beginning. And you say this has absolutely nothing to do with Selyse, whom he abhors with all his being and utterly rejects any and all advice she has to give? He could have just as easily appointed Jon Fossoway, husband to Mace's sister, if he had any mind to curry Mace's favor. And yes, there are lots of Florents after the Blackwater, aka as Queen's Men. And yet you maintain that Selyse is still utterly without influence in Stannis' court.

Yes, Mel urged Alester to be burned. And Selyse is Mel's devoted, even brainwashed, acolyte. She never gave a second thought to Alester and remains utterly devoted to Stannis and Mel. She most certainly did not object, considering it was queen's men, Florents, who bound him to the post.

Some subplots have more dots than others. There is enough here to conclude that Lady Olenna fears Queen Selyse more than King Stannis. If not, as you say, they had ample reason to back him, and they could kill off Selyse if they wanted and replace her with Margaery. But that's an iffy prospect when they have Renly all willing and ready to go.

The only reason the Florents are weak is that they've been marginalized by the Tyrells for the last 300 years. Queen Selyse would immediately begin to reverse that. This is how the Game of Thrones is played.

Most Florents supported Renly first, but not all. Axell backed Stannis from the beginning, and there are Florent men on Dragonstone, but probably no family members. And as we discussed, the only reason Alester backed Renly is because his lands abut the Tyrells. Otherwise, who knows?

Again, Stannis+ Margaery - Selyse x (Shireen + Willas), it's an unworkable plan that requires the Tyrells to put Stannis on the throne first and then trust him to toss his wife, all while waiting five years for Shireen to consummate, and hoping that doesn't get undone on a whim. And you say the Tyrells will take this deal right after Stannis killed Renly? Hardly. They killed his envoys who tried to recover the soldiers of the lords who crossed over to Stannis. Does this sound like a family that is willing to listen to marriage alliance proposals? With the Lannisters, they have a sure-fire way to smash Stannis and be rid of him and Selyse forever, then marry the crown and eventually kill the king to give their girl unfettered power over the entire kingdom.

Really? They finally get their king after Stannis' death? And he's what, 32? 33? right now? So all they have to do is wait perhaps another 30, 40, 50 years or so? In your mind, this is a better prospect than Margaery as regent in less than five years, then a Tyrell king for the next generation?

Good plan. Not only defy the laws of the established religion that has devout adherents all across the land, but then force an entirely new religion on an unwilling populace, with Margaery as the second wife in a thoroughly monogamist society. Yes, that could only be good for House Tyrell.

 

 

[Jaenara Belarys]

On 3/8/2021 at 3:21 AM, saltedmalted said:

Mace could crown himself if that is what his pride demands. Many people say that he couldn't do so because he had no "claim" but what claim did Renly have?

Renly's claim derived by his older brother Robert. Mace could maybe crown himself King of All the Reach, but then he'd have to defend against and onslaught on westermen, maybe northmen, ironmen, maybe Dornishmen.

 

On 3/9/2021 at 6:28 PM, saltedmalted said:

The Lannisters are getting destroyed right now. 

Agreed. The Lannisters are getting blitzed.

 

On 3/9/2021 at 6:28 PM, saltedmalted said:

How was Joffrey supposed to "take" the Eyrie, Storm's End, Winterfell, Sunspear?

The only way to take the Eyrie is on dragonback or starving them. Winterfell would be "the crannogmen will bleed them every step of the way" or conducting landings on the coast or taking White Harbor. Storm's End would be starvation or whatever fAegon does to take Storm's End. Sunspear, ick, the Dornish lords would kill them the second the main strength left Meria Martell style

 

On 3/9/2021 at 9:26 AM, John Suburbs said:

Really Mace? Throw all your forces against one of the most impenetrable structures in the kingdom?

Numbers are a large advantage. But yes, attacking the Moat is madness.

[John Suburbs]

9 hours ago, frenin said:

 

1) He has never had a good word to her and he's always angry and disdainful with her...

 

2) He only listens to her when he's desperate, he stops listening when he's not. And the more time it passes he only listens what comes to Mel's mouth... When he's desperate.

 

2) As Davos point the manner in which Stannis treats Selyse is very different than the way he treats Meli. Davos also points that while Melisandre is beautiful, Selyse... isn't.

 

4) Stannis knows he was going to kill Renly. What he tells to Davos is pure denial. When he's told about how Renly would die, Cressen knows the truth and calls it fratricide. Stannis still goes.

 

1) He never has a good word for anyone, and is angry and disdainful of everyone. If he wanted her gone, he would have divorced her already. But he won't because he obeys the law above all else, and the law says you cannot set aside your wife without good cause. Now, the church may grant this on the grounds that Selyse has become an apostate, but the Tyrells cannot, nor should not, count on this when they have an eligible bachelor right before them who they can then put on the throne.

2) But he does listen to her when her counsel when is valid, just like he does with everyone. And he does not only listen to what comes from Mel's mouth. He leaves her behind when he attacks Kings Landing. He rejected her plan for Edric until she proved her power with the leeches. He went north because his Hand, Davos, showed him why it was important, only confirmed by Mel after the fact. He even alters his entire battle plan for the north because of what Jon told him, not Mel.

3) What does beauty have to do with anything? Selyse is queen, not Mel. Stannis doesn't treat Selyse any differently than he treats any other member with his court, except for Mel who is a special case and very likely has him under some sort of spell.

4) Yes, Stannis is in denial. But in his own mind, his hands are clean

[Jaenara Belarys]

7 minutes ago, John Suburbs said:

He never has a good word for anyone, and is angry and disdainful of everyone.

This is not technically true, he repeatedly says that Davos is honest, "passing clever", etc.

 

7 minutes ago, John Suburbs said:

He rejected her plan for Edric until she proved her power with the leeches.

This might've just been a mummer's farce. Walder Frey and Euron Greyjoy don't worship the LoL. Like Stannis says, it has the palsied spotted hand of Walder Frey written all over the Red Wedding ( and Lord Tywin)

 

[Lord Varys]

3 hours ago, John Suburbs said:

Mace doesn't grasp . . . We all know Mace doesn't grasp because he is an utter nincompoop who doesn't grasp the simplest of concepts. But if Lady O wanted to, she could make him grasp it, just like she made him grasp too-old-and-used Cersei, and she has both Loras and Margaery there to back her up if need be. So sorry Varys, but you've lost this one. The text makes it abundantly clear that Olenna can mercilessly hector Mace out of any decision he makes, particularly when it comes to marriages, she can bully him into shutting his trap and bothering the queen (and yes, she told him, ordered him, outright to stop hectoring her and send a raven to Leyton, immediately), and she doesn't give a whit what he thinks about Sansa and Willas because she is going to make it happen regardless. So much for iron-willed Mace. And if you look at him closely, he doesn't just knuckle under to Olenna but virtually everyone with even a moderately foreceful personality, including his own banners.

I think you should read the books again - Mace Tyrell isn't the sharpest knife in the box, that much is clear. But he knows what he wants and how to get it. In the Epilogue, he has Kevan backed into a corner and they both know it. And Tyrion earlier also realizes that Mace Tyrell has a great appetite and gets what he wants.

Olenna has some influence, but it is the classic 'female influence behind the scenes' thing. She is on no council, she only wields informal power, meaning to influence decisions she has to figure out what people might want and influence her men before they make decisions with other men. She can do that to a point, but there are limits to this.

What she did with Mace when she intervened in the conflict with Cersei is to prevent Mace from making a scene in front of the entire court.

And she is also somewhat stupid considering she completely failed to realize, apparently, to what lengths Cersei would go to destroy Margaery. And I also daresay that she has no idea to what lengths Cersei will go to destroy and House Tyrell once she realizes what Olenna did to Joffrey.

3 hours ago, John Suburbs said:

Lady Olenna is not a member of the small council, and she left for Highgarden months before Margaery was arrested, where she is now deaing with ironmen on the Mander. She may be on her way back to KL, we don't know. But you can bet that she is not leaving all of this up to her oaf son.

Olenna doesn't deal with the Ironborn, Garlan and Willas try to do that.

If Olenna were the one running House Tyrell we would have heard by now that she was on her way to KL and Mace would have been in contact with her. But there is nothing about that.

3 hours ago, John Suburbs said:

No, the inclination (the fact, actually) is that Olenna will not give Mace a choice in the matter. He will be instructed to ask leave to bring Sansa to Highgarden, and she will be married to Willas with or without Mace's approval or even knowledge, for no other reason than Lady Olenna Tyrell, the true power at Highgarden, wants this to happen.

LOL, no, that's not how this society works. Olenna cannot command the Lord of Highgarden to do anything ... she can urge her son to do something, she may know how to push his buttons, how to persuade him of something she really wants. And she apparently convinced she could do that with the Sansa thing - or rather: she gave Sansa the impression she could do this.

But it is also clear that there are things she couldn't do. She couldn't stop Mace and Loras from crowning and supporting Renly. She couldn't stop the Joff-Margaery betrothal even after she figured out that Loras might eventually kill Joffrey.

3 hours ago, John Suburbs said:

Joffrey has been a rotten little twat virtually all his life. But you're right, nothing he has done so far would sway Lady Olenna from agreeing to the match, because it is abundantly clear that Margaery is in absolute no danger from him. In fact, it is the exact opposite; Joffrey is the one who should fear Margaery. And this is despite Lady Olenna having full knowledge of everything that Joffrey has done since becoming king, including Sansa's beatings.

Exactly, Sansa's beating in no way imply that he will do the same to Margaery. So why is Lady Olenna taking such an extreme and risky step like killing him at his wedding directly in front of thousands of witnesses when Margaery is in no danger? All she gets for risking her life and the lives of her entire family is a five year wait in an unconsummated marriage, which can be dissolved at any time for any reason by Cersei, who now remains as queen regent, only to eventually become Tommen's relatively powerless queen consort. With Joffrey, she would have had a Tyrell heir to the throne within the year, perhaps another two in five years, and then they could off Joff at any time to make Margaery queen regent, literally ruling the kingdom by fiat the way Cersei does now. So with the wine, it's all risk for Lady O with a less valuable reward at the end, all to avoid a problem that doesn't even exist yet, and probably never will.

I'm not discussing the poisoning plot here - but what's clear is that Sansa confirming the rumor seals Joff's fate because Margaery and Olenna agree that Joffrey might treat Margaery the same way he treated Sansa. But the more important part of the problem is that Loras is now a KG. Even if Margaery were okay with the occasional royal abuse or were able to keep her lord husband sweet ... Loras doesn't have the temperament to suffer this kind of thing quietly. He would eventually snap and do something about it, and that they prevent by removing Joff from the board.

3 hours ago, John Suburbs said:

If Littlefinger and Olenna hatched the plan at Highgarden, then why is she still concerned by the "disturbing tales" of Joffrey at the dinner? For them to enter into this plot, LF will have confessed his lie, which means all the stories of rotten Joffrey are all in sync and nobody is telling her anything different. So why does she now need to learn the "truth" from Sansa when she has already decided that she must kill him, for reasons which you can't seem to explain because you agree that there is no reason to worry for Margaery's safety?

Obviously because both parties don't really trust each other and want to play each other. Littlefinger and Olenna did come to an understanding, but Olenna wasn't willing to go through with it before she knew beyond the shadow of a doubt that Joff had to go. You don't murder a king just because some guy and his cronies tell you that he is a bad apple. Vice versa, Littlefinger played the Tyrells in the Sansa department, just as Olenna tried to steal Sansa away and marry her to Willas.

3 hours ago, John Suburbs said:

There is absolutely nothing that connects the appearance of the hairnet to Lady Olenna. Dontos gave it to Sansa, and Dontos worked for LF, not Lady Olenna. And if you really want to see the beginning of this plan, it wasn't at the hairnet, it was the note that Sansa found about meeting in the godswood. This was before LF and the Tyrells returned to the city, before the battle, before Renly was even dead. So all of this was in motion long before LF, LO or anyone had any inkling that Margaery would wind up with Joffrey.

You seem to be confused about Littlefinger's plans with Sansa. He wrote the note, and he hooked Sansa up with Dontos back in ACoK because he thought at that time that he would soon leave for the Vale on Tyrion's behalf and he planned to take Sansa with him back then. This fell through because Tyrion played him, lied to him with the offer to marry Myrcella to Lord Robert.

If you go back to the book you will see that Sansa gets the note right after Tyrion made his false offer and before Littlefinger realizes he has been played.

The hairnet and the promise for home are made right after Littlefinger has returned to KL and Dontos meets with Sansa. It is part of his and Olenna's plans for the wedding feast. Earlier in ACoK Littlefinger clearly had a less complex plan to get Sansa out of the castle.

3 hours ago, John Suburbs said:

Why would she need to verify any of this through a complete stranger like Sansa? She already has trusted members of her own family, her own grandsons, who can tell her they saw all of these things with their own eyes. This is not hearsay or rumors. These are eyewitness accounts. Lady O doesn't know Sansa from Adam, has no idea if she is what she appears to be, no idea if she has an agenda or is in fact actually working with Littlefinger to ensnare her in some trap. You make Lady O out to be an utter fool.

Joff's intimate behavior towards Sansa is something she knows most about. The Redwynes could confirm some of the public stories, but Joff's true nature is best drawn from his private behavior - his promise to pardon Ned followed by the execution, Joff forcing Sansa to watch the heads of the dead, Joff having the KG beat Sansa repeatedly (which not always happened in public), Joff threatening to rape Sansa even after she was married to Tyrion, etc.

Joff's general mistreatment of Sansa could have more to do with his hatred of House Stark. But his private behavior shows his true nature.

3 hours ago, John Suburbs said:

If the Tyrells are not expecting any kind of offer from Stannis, nor do they have any reason to expect it, then they are not going to sit around and wait for it to happen. Renly is right there at Highgarden, available for marriage and ready to be king. It was your suggestion that could have sided with Stannis and all they would have to do is get rid of one wife, marry him to another, and then marry their son to a child who won't be able to consummate for another four or five years at least. If you are going to propose options like this, at least make sure they are remotely plausible.

The scenario I talked about always involved Stannis making such an offer after he murdered Renly and before Littlefinger delivered to Lannister offer to Highgarden.

3 hours ago, John Suburbs said:

Why would Stannis and Selyse need to be star-crossed lovers in order for Selyse to exercise the only real authority she has as queen? The only way Stannis would get involved in marriages in the Reach is if they presented some problem for him politically, which they won't because they are diminishing the power of a house that opposed him, and could do so again, while rewarding the house of his wife. His personal feelings for Selyse have absolutely no bearing on the threat she poses to House Tyrell. And Stannis would not care one way or another who married whom in the Reach, unless it had direct bearing on his rule. Selyse will have complete freedom to hand out any rewards or impose any punishment to align the houses in any way she sees fit.

What marriages are you even talking about there?

3 hours ago, John Suburbs said:

Stannis and Selyse were married for years before Mel showed up. If he hated her so much and he could just dump her at will, he would have done so. But that would mean breaking his vows and violating the laws of his church, which his sense of honor will not allow.

Nope, Stannis didn't really have a reason to dump Selyse prior to the War of the Five Kings because he could avoid her and he didn't really need a male heir. King Stannis does, Lord Stannis didn't.

Stannis persecutes the followers of the Seven in the lands he directly controls. He doesn't respect the Seven or the Faith. Why on earth should he bother with Faith-made marriage laws?

3 hours ago, John Suburbs said:

Of course Selyse cannot arrange any marriages now because Stannis is not sitting on the Iron Throne yet. That's what Lady Olenna is desperately trying to prevent, even to the point of aligning with the most vicious, ruthless warlord the realm has seen in decades and marrying her granddaughter to his loathsome grandson.

That is just in your head.

3 hours ago, John Suburbs said:

Yes, exactly. Stannis accepts Florent fealty and then appoints the lord as his new Hand over his other lords who've been with him since the beginning. And you say this has absolutely nothing to do with Selyse, whom he abhors with all his being and utterly rejects any and all advice she has to give? He could have just as easily appointed Jon Fossoway, husband to Mace's sister, if he had any mind to curry Mace's favor. And yes, there are lots of Florents after the Blackwater, aka as Queen's Men. And yet you maintain that Selyse is still utterly without influence in Stannis' court.

Stannis only names Alester Hand after his return to Dragonstone - when he lost most of his other lords and knights and is predominantly stuck with Florent men ... which, as I pointed out, are also Melisandre's men due to the fact that they are queen's men.

3 hours ago, John Suburbs said:

The only reason the Florents are weak is that they've been marginalized by the Tyrells for the last 300 years. Queen Selyse would immediately begin to reverse that. This is how the Game of Thrones is played.

The Florents are never described as a powerfully. They don't even feature in FaB, despite the fact that after the Conquest they could have been more prominent if their power later waned as the star of the Tyrells rose. But apparently that wasn't the case.

In the end the Florents seem to be little more than the Volmarks - a deluded minor house fooling themselves into believing that a blood claim alone is power. It means pretty much nothing if you cannot back it up with swords and wealth.

3 hours ago, John Suburbs said:

Most Florents supported Renly first, but not all. Axell backed Stannis from the beginning, and there are Florent men on Dragonstone, but probably no family members. And as we discussed, the only reason Alester backed Renly is because his lands abut the Tyrells. Otherwise, who knows?

Axell hardly had a choice considering he was on Dragonstone when Stannis proclaimed himself king.

3 hours ago, John Suburbs said:

Again, Stannis+ Margaery - Selyse x (Shireen + Willas), it's an unworkable plan that requires the Tyrells to put Stannis on the throne first and then trust him to toss his wife, all while waiting five years for Shireen to consummate, and hoping that doesn't get undone on a whim. And you say the Tyrells will take this deal right after Stannis killed Renly? Hardly. They killed his envoys who tried to recover the soldiers of the lords who crossed over to Stannis. Does this sound like a family that is willing to listen to marriage alliance proposals? With the Lannisters, they have a sure-fire way to smash Stannis and be rid of him and Selyse forever, then marry the crown and eventually kill the king to give their girl unfettered power over the entire kingdom.

Obviously, the plan would go the same way as it went with the Lannisters. The Tyrells helped to crush Stannis and then reaped their rewards. They could just as well have helped crush the Lannisters to reap their rewards later.

Of course, the issue of Renly's death would have been a problem in those negotiations ... but Stannis has a reputation for being a just man. He could have sworn he had nothing to do with that, blaming Brienne and Catelyn, and Mace Tyrell may have bought that. The man is pretty pragmatic. And even Loras could have gotten onboard, I assume, if Stannis had approached him in a less confrontational manner.

Nobody actually kills Stannis envoys (Selyse's brother Erren Florent and Ser Parmen Crane) - they are imprisoned. Tarly kills some Florent men, but this seems to refer to men-at-arms/soldiers, not actual members of the family. And that happens because Stannis just sent men who were supposed to take over the assembled army ... he didn't send men who offered any rewards if they were willing to join Stannis.

3 hours ago, John Suburbs said:

Really? They finally get their king after Stannis' death? And he's what, 32? 33? right now? So all they have to do is wait perhaps another 30, 40, 50 years or so? In your mind, this is a better prospect than Margaery as regent in less than five years, then a Tyrell king for the next generation?

What are you talking there? Nobody plans to have Margaery as a regent for anyone.

3 hours ago, John Suburbs said:

Good plan. Not only defy the laws of the established religion that has devout adherents all across the land, but then force an entirely new religion on an unwilling populace, with Margaery as the second wife in a thoroughly monogamist society. Yes, that could only be good for House Tyrell.

Not all that much different than what quite a few houses did with Maegor the Cruel. And what quite a few houses also did with Stannis who actively turned against old gods and new without sweetening this blasphemy and heresy by offering rewards and favors in exchange.

The bottom line is - the Tyrells end up in camp Lannister not because some invented fear of Stannis or Selyse but rather because Stannis was too haughty and arrogant to make them the kind of offer the Lannisters made them later.

[saltedmalted]

14 hours ago, frenin said:

To take King's Landing... That army certainly was not there because Stannis

Renly was twice the usurper, against both Stannis and Robert's children. The army was their to do his bidding.

The next morning Renly would use his troops to destroy Stannis. Don't really get the outrage over the topic.

Killing Renly was fine for moral and pragmatic reasons.

[saltedmalted]

13 hours ago, Jaenara Belarys said:

Renly's claim derived by his older brother Robert

Claims don't work that way. Stannis and Robert's "children" come first.

13 hours ago, Jaenara Belarys said:

but then he'd have to defend against and onslaught on westermen, maybe northmen, ironmen, maybe Dornishmen

And Renly wouldn't?

 

[frenin]

14 hours ago, John Suburbs said:

1) He never has a good word for anyone, and is angry and disdainful of everyone. If he wanted her gone, he would have divorced her already. But he won't because he obeys the law above all else, and the law says you cannot set aside your wife without good cause. Now, the church may grant this on the grounds that Selyse has become an apostate, but the Tyrells cannot, nor should not, count on this when they have an eligible bachelor right before them who they can then put on the throne.

He has good word for people he actually cares about one way or the other, he has no affection for Melisandre. 

I'm not really sure the laws say that.

 

14 hours ago, John Suburbs said:

2) But he does listen to her when her counsel when is valid, just like he does with everyone. And he does not only listen to what comes from Mel's mouth. He leaves her behind when he attacks Kings Landing. He rejected her plan for Edric until she proved her power with the leeches. He went north because his Hand, Davos, showed him why it was important, only confirmed by Mel after the fact. He even alters his entire battle plan for the north because of what Jon told him, not Mel.

He does not, he listens to her when he has no other choice.  

And didn't i tell you right away?? The more desperate he is, the more he listens, the less desoerate he is, the less he listens.

 

 

14 hours ago, John Suburbs said:

3) What does beauty have to do with anything? Selyse is queen, not Mel. Stannis doesn't treat Selyse any differently than he treats any other member with his court, except for Mel who is a special case and very likely has him under some sort of spell.

Stannis is in a relationship with Melisandre, he doesn't want to have nothing with  Selyse, i'm not particularly sure that the women on the court paid him attention having in mind that he was always in the shadow of his brothers and Davos is quite clear.

 

Quote

“He is mine own blood. Stop clutching me, woman.” King Stannis put a hand on her shoulder, awkwardly untangling himself from her grasp. “Perhaps Robert did curse our marriage bed. He swore to me that he never meant to shame me, that he was drunk and never knew which bedchamber he entered that night. But does it matter? The boy was not at fault, whatever the truth.” Melisandre put her hand on the king’s arm. “The Lord of Light cherishes the innocent. There is no sacrifice more precious. From his king’s blood and his untainted fire, a dragon shall be born.” Stannis did not pull away from Melisandre’s touch as he had from his queen’s. The red woman was all Selyse was not; young, full-bodied, and strangely beautiful, with her heart-shaped face, coppery hair, and unearthly red eyes. “It would be a wondrous thing to see stone come to life,” he admitted, grudging. “And to mount a dragon … I remember the first time my father took me to court, Robert had to hold my hand. I could not have been older than four, which would have made him five or six. We agreed afterward that the king had been as noble as the dragons were fearsome.”

 

14 hours ago, John Suburbs said:

4) Yes, Stannis is in denial. But in his own mind, his hands are clean

Not really, as his conversation with Davos would later prove, Penrose being healthy before he died just like his brothers¡, the night being dark and full of terrors.

 

 

1 hour ago, saltedmalted said:

Renly was twice the usurper, against both Stannis and Robert's children. The army was their to do his bidding.

True.

 

1 hour ago, saltedmalted said:

The next morning Renly would use his troops to destroy Stannis. Don't really get the outrage over the topic.

Because Stannis had laid siege to his castle and had forced his hand and the one who wanted a battle, you talk as if the only reason Renly was in the Stormlands when he wasn't on his way to King's Landing wasn't Stannis and the only reason Stannis was there wasn't the fact that he was toldthat he could kill Renly at Storm's End and steal his army.

[John Suburbs]

20 hours ago, Lord Varys said:

I think you should read the books again - Mace Tyrell isn't the sharpest knife in the box, that much is clear. But he knows what he wants and how to get it. In the Epilogue, he has Kevan backed into a corner and they both know it. And Tyrion earlier also realizes that Mace Tyrell has a great appetite and gets what he wants.

Olenna has some influence, but it is the classic 'female influence behind the scenes' thing. She is on no council, she only wields informal power, meaning to influence decisions she has to figure out what people might want and influence her men before they make decisions with other men. She can do that to a point, but there are limits to this.

What she did with Mace when she intervened in the conflict with Cersei is to prevent Mace from making a scene in front of the entire court.

And she is also somewhat stupid considering she completely failed to realize, apparently, to what lengths Cersei would go to destroy Margaery. And I also daresay that she has no idea to what lengths Cersei will go to destroy and House Tyrell once she realizes what Olenna did to Joffrey.

Olenna doesn't deal with the Ironborn, Garlan and Willas try to do that.

If Olenna were the one running House Tyrell we would have heard by now that she was on her way to KL and Mace would have been in contact with her. But there is nothing about that.

LOL, no, that's not how this society works. Olenna cannot command the Lord of Highgarden to do anything ... she can urge her son to do something, she may know how to push his buttons, how to persuade him of something she really wants. And she apparently convinced she could do that with the Sansa thing - or rather: she gave Sansa the impression she could do this.

But it is also clear that there are things she couldn't do. She couldn't stop Mace and Loras from crowning and supporting Renly. She couldn't stop the Joff-Margaery betrothal even after she figured out that Loras might eventually kill Joffrey.

I'm not discussing the poisoning plot here - but what's clear is that Sansa confirming the rumor seals Joff's fate because Margaery and Olenna agree that Joffrey might treat Margaery the same way he treated Sansa. But the more important part of the problem is that Loras is now a KG. Even if Margaery were okay with the occasional royal abuse or were able to keep her lord husband sweet ... Loras doesn't have the temperament to suffer this kind of thing quietly. He would eventually snap and do something about it, and that they prevent by removing Joff from the board.

Obviously because both parties don't really trust each other and want to play each other. Littlefinger and Olenna did come to an understanding, but Olenna wasn't willing to go through with it before she knew beyond the shadow of a doubt that Joff had to go. You don't murder a king just because some guy and his cronies tell you that he is a bad apple. Vice versa, Littlefinger played the Tyrells in the Sansa department, just as Olenna tried to steal Sansa away and marry her to Willas.

You seem to be confused about Littlefinger's plans with Sansa. He wrote the note, and he hooked Sansa up with Dontos back in ACoK because he thought at that time that he would soon leave for the Vale on Tyrion's behalf and he planned to take Sansa with him back then. This fell through because Tyrion played him, lied to him with the offer to marry Myrcella to Lord Robert.

If you go back to the book you will see that Sansa gets the note right after Tyrion made his false offer and before Littlefinger realizes he has been played.

The hairnet and the promise for home are made right after Littlefinger has returned to KL and Dontos meets with Sansa. It is part of his and Olenna's plans for the wedding feast. Earlier in ACoK Littlefinger clearly had a less complex plan to get Sansa out of the castle.

Joff's intimate behavior towards Sansa is something she knows most about. The Redwynes could confirm some of the public stories, but Joff's true nature is best drawn from his private behavior - his promise to pardon Ned followed by the execution, Joff forcing Sansa to watch the heads of the dead, Joff having the KG beat Sansa repeatedly (which not always happened in public), Joff threatening to rape Sansa even after she was married to Tyrion, etc.

Joff's general mistreatment of Sansa could have more to do with his hatred of House Stark. But his private behavior shows his true nature.

The scenario I talked about always involved Stannis making such an offer after he murdered Renly and before Littlefinger delivered to Lannister offer to Highgarden.

What marriages are you even talking about there?

Nope, Stannis didn't really have a reason to dump Selyse prior to the War of the Five Kings because he could avoid her and he didn't really need a male heir. King Stannis does, Lord Stannis didn't.

Stannis persecutes the followers of the Seven in the lands he directly controls. He doesn't respect the Seven or the Faith. Why on earth should he bother with Faith-made marriage laws?

That is just in your head.

Stannis only names Alester Hand after his return to Dragonstone - when he lost most of his other lords and knights and is predominantly stuck with Florent men ... which, as I pointed out, are also Melisandre's men due to the fact that they are queen's men.

The Florents are never described as a powerfully. They don't even feature in FaB, despite the fact that after the Conquest they could have been more prominent if their power later waned as the star of the Tyrells rose. But apparently that wasn't the case.

In the end the Florents seem to be little more than the Volmarks - a deluded minor house fooling themselves into believing that a blood claim alone is power. It means pretty much nothing if you cannot back it up with swords and wealth.

Axell hardly had a choice considering he was on Dragonstone when Stannis proclaimed himself king.

Obviously, the plan would go the same way as it went with the Lannisters. The Tyrells helped to crush Stannis and then reaped their rewards. They could just as well have helped crush the Lannisters to reap their rewards later.

Of course, the issue of Renly's death would have been a problem in those negotiations ... but Stannis has a reputation for being a just man. He could have sworn he had nothing to do with that, blaming Brienne and Catelyn, and Mace Tyrell may have bought that. The man is pretty pragmatic. And even Loras could have gotten onboard, I assume, if Stannis had approached him in a less confrontational manner.

Nobody actually kills Stannis envoys (Selyse's brother Erren Florent and Ser Parmen Crane) - they are imprisoned. Tarly kills some Florent men, but this seems to refer to men-at-arms/soldiers, not actual members of the family. And that happens because Stannis just sent men who were supposed to take over the assembled army ... he didn't send men who offered any rewards if they were willing to join Stannis.

What are you talking there? Nobody plans to have Margaery as a regent for anyone.

Not all that much different than what quite a few houses did with Maegor the Cruel. And what quite a few houses also did with Stannis who actively turned against old gods and new without sweetening this blasphemy and heresy by offering rewards and favors in exchange.

The bottom line is - the Tyrells end up in camp Lannister not because some invented fear of Stannis or Selyse but rather because Stannis was too haughty and arrogant to make them the kind of offer the Lannisters made them later.

I think you should read, Varys. He doesn't get anything he wants unless it just falls in his lap:

-- he doesn't stop Oberyn from attending the wedding. Tywin overrules him. And he doesn't even comprehend the simple fact that Oberyn does not need to cross his lands to get to King's Landing.

-- his assessment (or was it his bannerman's that Mace just agrees with, like always) that Robb Stark should just "throw all his strength at Moat Caillen" is laughable, as was the assessment that Balon Greyjoy should have the north because "what is up there that any sane man would want."

--Littlefinger doesn't even bother to deal directly with Mace for Margaery's hand because if Loras is OK with it, Mace will be too.

-- he didn't marry Cersei to Willas like he wanted. Overruled by Lady O

-- he didn't get Garth as Master of Coin, overruled by Cersei and told to shut up about it by Lady O

-- he finally became Hand only after Cersei was deposed, and made himself an utterly ridiculous hand-shaped chair to sit in. And nothing he "demands" is against Kevan's wishes. He has no problem with putting Ronnet on ice, nor delaying the march to Storm's End until Margaery's trial is over. And even when Mace starts to question Robert Strong, it's Kevan who puts Mance in his place by pointing out that if Cersei loses and Tommen is no longer king, Margaery is no longer queen.

-- and even in the past, Mace had some 40k at Storm's End when Ned showed up with, maybe 12k battered Trident survivors, but Mace meekly dipped his banners to this inferior force despite having a king at the ready just over on Dragonstone.

So please, show me this hard-charging, iron-willed Mace who simply cannot be denied. Every time we see him, if he is not being denied outright he is meekly agreeing with whatever everybody else says. He is an utterly spineless, weak-will sycophant posing as a mighty lord.

Yes, Olenna is behind the scenes. But directing Mace to do or not do things she objects to is not "influence", it is outright control. In every case that we know of, Mace has bent to Olenna's will. The only person who says otherwise is Olenna, and she contradicts this lie just a few moments later, and then it is contradicted by others, and even right before our own eyes, over and over and over again.

Yes, she stopped Mace from making a fool of himself, not by asking, not by prodding, but by sheer force of will. Shut up, fool, and do as your told. Mace blustered and gave in, like he always does.

The only thing Lady Olenna failed to realize is that Joffrey would eat Tyrion's pie instead of Tyrion. If that plan had succeeded, Cersei would have been shipped off to her next husband in a fortnight, leaving Joffrey in the very capable manipulative hands of Margaery.

Again, a statement with nothing to back it up. Who's to say Olenna is not coming to KL? Or it may be that Mace is doing everything she wants, so there is no need. It may seem like Margaery was arrested a long time ago, but Feast and Dance are concurrent, so it has only been a few weeks. For all we know, she might already be in KL, or on her way. The action in KL has been focused on Cersei and all her troubles, so there is no reason to think that we'd be getting reports on Lady Olenna's every movement.

Lol, you underestimate Lady Olenna. She can and has commanded her son to do all kinds of things, because he is such an enormous pushover. She told him -- not asked, not urged, not persuaded, not pushed buttons -- told him to stop hectoring the queen and send a raven to Hightower -- and he did, because his mother told him to. She was the one who negotiated the marriage and alliance, while Mace blustered about and was led to believe that putting Loras on the KG was his idea. This is how extremely malleable he is. He is like a lump of clay, not just for Lady O but for literally everybody.

Wrong, it was Mace who could not stop Lady O from crowning Renly and marrying him to Margaery. Not that he would have objected in any event, because if his mother wanted this then it's OK. It was Mace who could not stop the Marge-Joffrey betrothal, no matter how much he blustered about it. Lady Olenna cut that deal, and signed off on Loras as well because, as is made abundantly clear in the text, Margaery is in absolutely no danger from Joffrey and there is no reason to think she would be.

Lol, I don't want to discuss it, he said, before discussing it.

Sansa does not confirm anything. This has already been confirmed, by multiple people whom Lady O knows and trusts. This is not a rumor, this is a fact -- they all saw Joffrey do all of these things. There is nothing to confirm, especially from a complete stranger who Lady O has absolutely no reason to trust, and quite a few reasons to mistrust.

Even if Margaery does take a few bruises someday, Loras is not going to go apeshit about it, especially if she sits him down and explains the situation and why he has to keep his cool. The man has some sense about him. Look at how Jaime diffused him when he went after Brienne. But this is not an issue because Margaery is smart enough to keep on Joffrey's good side, unlike Sansa, who antagonizes him at every turn, as does Cersei, Tyrion, Tywin and pretty much everybody else. If you look closely, in fact, you'll see that the only two people who have figured out how to manipulate Joff are Margaery (and by extension, Lady O) and Littlefinger. So again, why on earth with either of them want to get rid of their most valuable piece, in the absolute riskiest way imaginable, when this problem they are so afraid of doesn't even exist yet?

Lol, so LF presents this plan to kill the king to Lady Olenna, and then she is supposed to confirm that he is in fact a huge liar who created this problem for her, and then get back to him as to whether she wants to join this scheme? And I suppose he also told her that if the answer is no, then by all means, don't tell the queen or the hand or the king himself, because that would surely cost LF his head, right? So now you present both Lady O and LF as unimaginable idiots?

Exactly, you don't kill a king just because of what people say about him. You assess the situation for yourself, and in any rational assessment Joffrey poses absolutely no danger to Margaery. Just look at how giddy he is toward her at the wedding. She's a smoking hon 17yo and he is above the moon at marrying her rather than mopey, scrawny Sansa. But you do take out someone who poses a clear and present danger to the power of Highgarden, and that would be Tyrion.

What false offer from Tyrion? To undo the betrothal to Joffrey? Sansa got the note weeks, if not months, before that happened -- long before anyone had any inkling that Margaery would be available for marriage. There is absolutely nothing to suggest that LF and LO were in cahoots at the time of the hairnet, and plenty to dispute it, as I've already shown. And yes, the plan would have been far simpler if Sansa hadn't married Tyrion, which only came about because Littlefinger made it happen, which, coincidentally, also provided Lady O with her own motivation to kill Tyrion. That's when she joined the plot, to kill Tyrion.

The promise to pardon Ned was not done in private. It was done in open court, in front of numerous witnesses, including the Redwynes, with Littlefinger jotting down every word. This was as public as it could be. Likewise for the beating after Oxcross. To think that LO would be OK with all of this, but, heavens, he also made her look at heads and made some threats, well, he must die then. That's ludicrous. Lady Olenna already had plenty of this stuff, from official records, from eyewitnesses, from Renly, to make up her mind about Joffrey long before the proposal was made. She is the titular head of House Tyrell, having navigated her way through a hopelessly patriarchal society to get there. She didn't do that by being stupid or ill-informed.

Joff's mistreatment of Sansa was due to a number of factors:

-- his personal dislike for Sansa, which she accentuates. He is utterly smitten with Margaery.

-- the fact that she is utterly alone in the capital, with no father, brothers, guards, soldiers, etc. to protect her. Margaery has all the might of Highgarden at her back, and even Joffrey knows that his crown would be lost without her.

-- that her family is in open rebellion to the crown and her brother is winning battles in the west, killing Lannisters on Lannister soil. This is the primary motivation for the beatings after Oxcross. It sent a message to any lords thinking of joining Robb's cause that the crown will be victorious in the end, and to prove it I'm going to abuse his sister, so think carefully about which side you choose. Unfortunate as it is, Sansa is the crown's hostage and this is what happens to hostages. If Balon Greyjoy had risen in rebellion again, nobody would think Ned was a mad tyrant if he beat, tortured, or even executed Theon. In fact, most lords, and probably Robert too, would question his fitness as a lord and Warden of the North, if he did not.

So again, I'll state that there is no more reason to fear a beating for Margaery than to fear Ser Illyn's sword for Mace.

And again, right after Stannis murders Renly (and the Tyrells are certain he is behind it, and unstable, uncontrollable Loras is in a murderous rage over it), you think they are then going to accept his proposals for marriage? I cannot imagine a more unlikely scenario.

What marriages? Any and all marriages that Selyse could arrange that empower House Florent at the expense of House Tyrell.

You keep saying Selyse is powerless because Stannis doesn't love her. In the words of the immortal Tina Turner, what's love got to do with it? She is his queen. She can exercise enormous influences over marriages in the realm, just like Queen Alysanne did. Now, there is always a chance that Stannis could rid himself of Mel once he has the throne, rededicate himself to the faith, and have his marriage annulled because Selyse is an apostate, but this is a very iffy prospect that would require a great deal of trust on the part of the Tyrells. And they have absolutely no reason to trust him because he just murdered their king.

All men need and desire male heirs, not just kings. If it was so easy to undo a marriage and he is so disgusted by Selyse, he could have kicked her to the curb at any time. He didn't, though, because it's against the law. Stannis is using the power that Mel provides, but he has not joined her church. He knows that if he hopes to rule a kingdom that worships the seven, he needs to abide by its strictures. Dumping Selyse would open up a huge fissure between him, his lords and his subjects, which would be fatal for a brand new regime that was only created by the followers of the very religion he is now blaspheming.

Stannis still had Axell, Rolland Storm, a couple of Estermonts, Richard Horpe . . . any number of potential Hands instead of Alester. But he's a Florent, like his wife, so he got the nod. Yes, he is predominantly stuck with Florent men, and he is supposed to just chuck his Florent wife like a sack of soiled laundry?

Even in their diminished state, the Florents are one of the principal houses of the Reach, on par with Tarlys, Beesburys, Fossoways, but a step below Redwynes and Hightowers -- again, primarily due to the soft aggression that the Tyrells have been applying over the years. They are in no way a minor house, or else Selyse would never have been a proper wife for Stannis Baratheon, nor would any Florents be married to Tarlys, Hightowers and the like.

Axell is a fervent follower of the Red God. He was probably the one who brought Mel to Selyse. He did not support Stannis just because he was on Dragonstone but because he believes he is Azor Ahai reborn.

The Lannisters did not just kill their king through treachery. The Lannisters have a king already on the Iron Throne and ready for marriage. The Lannisters are not married to a house that has a grudge against the Tyrells for being upjumped stewards. The Lannisters aren't beholden to some weird foreign god who will contest with the church that the Tyrells have fervently supported for centuries. And the Lannisters are not headed by a man that the youngest Tyrell -- whom you say is so hot-headed and irrational to control -- has vowed to slay on sight.

Really? It was just a stroke of incredible good fortune that Brienne Tarth, daughter of a stormland house just a stone's throw from Dragonstone, and Catelyn Stark, wife of the northern lord who tried to put Stannis on the throne, conspired together to kill Renly in his tent -- all without any involvement from Stannis who benefited the most. You'd have a better chance arguing that it was some magical shadow that killed him. And now Loras is going to come on board with a kind word and a slap on the back? The same Loras who slew two nights and another man after Renly died? If it is so easy to talk Loras down from his rage over his murdered lover, then why is Lady O so worried about what he'll do over a few bruises on Margaery?

Regardless, Stannis' outreach was stiff-armed, and the men who served under the turncloak lords were butchered. Hardly an environment that is conducive to an alliance and not one but two binding marriages.

If Margaery had married Joff as planned, she would have born his sons. Then they could have gotten rid of him at any time, regardless of whether he was beating her nor not, and bingo, Queen Regent Margaery for at least the next decade. This is a far better outcome than waiting five years for Tommen, only to be his queen consort (unless you think they're going to murder Tommen now too?), and certainly far better than becoming Stannis' consort as well (after all the dust has settled over the Selyse affair and the ensuing religious war, of course.

I never said Selyse was the only consideration, just that it was a consideration.

 

 

 

 

[John Suburbs]

11 hours ago, frenin said:

He has good word for people he actually cares about one way or the other, he has no affection for Melisandre. 

I'm not really sure the laws say that.

 

He does not, he listens to her when he has no other choice.  

And didn't i tell you right away?? The more desperate he is, the more he listens, the less desoerate he is, the less he listens.

 

 

Stannis is in a relationship with Melisandre, he doesn't want to have nothing with  Selyse, i'm not particularly sure that the women on the court paid him attention having in mind that he was always in the shadow of his brothers and Davos is quite clear.

 

 

Not really, as his conversation with Davos would later prove, Penrose being healthy before he died just like his brothers¡, the night being dark and full of terrors.

 

 

 

All justice flows from the king, so Stannis could do it if he wanted to. But this is still against church law without the consent of a Council of Faith. And was we've seen throughout history, screwing the church like this creates a huge rift between the crown and the church. So the only way this can be done legally is if there is a valid reason for annulling the marriage, like the queen's children actually come from her twin brother, not the king. So no, Stannis may not be the friendliest of guys, but he is a stickler for the law and bound to duty. He is not going to set aside his wife to go chasing after Margaery.

He's the king, he can choose to listen to someone or not as he sees fit. When he hears good counsel he accepts it, when it's bad it's rejected. It doesn't matter if it's coming from Selyse, Mel, Davos or the cook. But there is absolutely nothing anywhere in the text, no word, no deed, no implication, that he loathes Selyse. He treats her like he treats everyone.

Lol, Selyse is grabbing the king, begging, pleading, while Mel places a hand on his arm. If anyone else grabbed Stannis like this he'd push them away too and tell them to get a grip on themselves. And yes, Mel is a special case because she has some kind of hypnotic hold over him. But he is not going to ditch his wife for a younger woman. Maybe for other reasons, but not just because Margaery starts batting her eyes at him. Ain't gonna happen.

The conversation with Davos before Penrose dies is literally where Stannis says "My hands are clean."

[John Suburbs]

On 3/22/2021 at 1:43 PM, Jaenara Belarys said:

This is not technically true, he repeatedly says that Davos is honest, "passing clever", etc.

 

This might've just been a mummer's farce. Walder Frey and Euron Greyjoy don't worship the LoL. Like Stannis says, it has the palsied spotted hand of Walder Frey written all over the Red Wedding ( and Lord Tywin)

 

Yes, and he was ready to execute Davos of the Edric Storm affair.

Exactly, even though Mel wanted to burn Edric right away, Stannis refused her. He doesn't just do whatever she says. He has his own mind about things. It wasn't until the third king died (Joffrey) that he changed his mind. So sure, he rejects counsel from Selyse, but he also rejects counsel from Mel, Davos, Axell, his other lords, and he accepts counsel from people he barely knows, like Jon Snow.

So all this talk about how much he hates Selyse and is just looking for an excuse to get rid of her is nonsense. He may not worship the ground she walks on, but she's his wife and his queen. There is no reason to think she won't be once he takes the Iron Throne, if it ever comes to that.

[Jaenara Belarys]

24 minutes ago, John Suburbs said:

-- his personal dislike for Sansa, which she accentuates. He is utterly smitten with Margaery.

 

He might've been smitten right there, but soon the claws would come out. 

 

26 minutes ago, John Suburbs said:

He was probably the one who brought Mel to Selyse

Melisandre says that she did not come across the narrow sea to seat another vain king on a throne. And we also hear that "Stannis is building ships,  Stannis is bringing a shadowbinder from Asshai"

[frenin]

 

 

2 hours ago, John Suburbs said:

Lol, Selyse is grabbing the king, begging, pleading, while Mel places a hand on his arm. If anyone else grabbed Stannis like this he'd push them away too and tell them to get a grip on themselves. And yes, Mel is a special case because she has some kind of hypnotic hold over him. But he is not going to ditch his wife for a younger woman. Maybe for other reasons, but not just because Margaery starts batting her eyes at him. Ain't gonna happen.

I was going to resoind but then i saw this... Okey, i'm out.

 

[FictionIsntReal]

On 3/20/2021 at 11:44 AM, frenin said:

Yet there is really no law or precedent that points the circumstances in which the crown prince can be disowned

The term "unprecedented" is commonly used to indicate something being unlikely.

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Walder Frey has ton of children and great  grandchildren and still he gets prestigious houses to marry into his house

Actually, he complains about how the prestigious families are NOT willing to marry into his. Tytos Lannister atypically doing so is held as a mark against him. Robb Stark only agrees because Walder won't let him cross to fight the Lannisters otherwise, and Edmure has to be ordered by Robb against his will.

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Aren't you arguing in the very same way you complained the other user?? Yes, an incest reveal would render that betrothal irrelevant but we don't know whether Renly (and the Tyrells) knew or didn't.

I'm arguing that it makes more sense if they do know so that any potential kids of that betrothal are removed as potential heirs along with Joffrey & Tommen.

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Fair enough, but there have been Kings setting aside wives in the past

Within Westeros, those were polygamous First Men kings. The Faith of the Seven has its own marriage customs.

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Quite a lot can happen in those years, especially that a relationship that was never good in the first place soured even more

The fact that it was never good in the first place means the state of things at the end of Robert's reign isn't that different. Robert never removed Stannis from his Small Council, nor did he assign Dragonstone to someone else. Stannis was his eldest brother, and that was sufficient to make him heir. Ned notes this on Robert's death, leaving LF to suggest supporting Joffrey even if they know he's a bastard, with the option of replacing him with Renly later. Renly himself acknowledges to Catelyn before preparing to battle (and kill) Stannis that he's the lawful heir "While he lives".

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there is absolutely nothing, no legal grounds no iron clad precedent a la 101 council. that "impedes" Robert from simply acknowledging a bastard in the meantime

Does Robert even remember that Edric exists at any time other than when Varys relays the thanks for gifts Varys attributes to Robert? Robert at least relies on Stannis, even if he doesn't like him.

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The only reason Renly wants Robert to remarry is because he knows Cersei wants him dead

Unlike Stannis, who fled the capital after the death of Jon Arryn, Renly doesn't act frightened at all until Robert dies. And he could have potentially found anyone to be Robert's new wife. Using his own logic, he should have sought out someone who resembles Lyanna as Robert would remember her... but Margaery isn't that. Instead she's the only sister of Renly's boyfriend, whom Renly himself goes on to marry.

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He was fighting Joffrey

He never actually fought Joffrey at all.

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he explicitly makes clear that even if Stannis's claim is true, it would not matter to him one bit

I agree that its truth doesn't matter to RENLY one bit, as I'm arguing Renly knew it was true and refuses to accept Stannis' claim anyway! But Catelyn obviously disagrees and thinks a Great Council of Lords should hash out the claims. Renly gives no credence to that idea, instead figuring he can end Stannis' claim by killing him in battle.

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months before Stannis even made his bid to the throne

Ned didn't ask whether Stannis was making a bid for the throne when he said the incest made Stannis heir. Renly himself acknowledges that simply follows from it while Stannis lives.

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But he sure as hell can guarantee that Robert will get rid of Cersei (and the Lannister by proxy) which is the only reason he wanted Robert to marry Margaery in the first place!!

I disagreed with that contention above, but here I'll make an additional point: Renly & Stannis could get rid of Cersei together if they didn't waste time fighting each other (and Stannis besieging Storm's End for Edric). Renly won't go along with that, even opportunistically (assuming, as others argue, that he believes Joffrey is legitimate), because he wants to be king instead of Stannis.

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The Lannisters didn't care, Cersei did

Wrong, Tywin explicitly cites Stannis spreading his "disgusting slander" as a reason to get Cersei married as soon as possible. And that's even after he lost at the Blackwater! And while Tyrion argues that trying to suppress the talk of incest would backfire (perhaps partly because he likes seeing her angry reaction to such talk), he inwardly admits that LF's plan of fighting fire with fire has promise.

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Didn't i just pass you the link where it's explained with its sources?

You didn't cite an example, nor does the link ever use the word "easily".

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And he would be destroyed fairly quickly

Tywin reacted to Tyrion's arrest by raiding the Riverlands while Robert was alive (albeit via vassals who weren't flying banners to identify them). And when Robert heard about Lannisters reacting to news of said arrest with violence (here it was Jaime ordering Ned & his men to be attacked in the street), his order was to release Tyrion. Everyone knows Tywin reacts violently to perceived slights to his house, and Robert tries to avoid political conflict. Tywin has a quite defensible seat in Casterly Rock, so even if Robert tried he would have a hard time destroying Tywin quickly. Is Robert going to do that for a woman when he already goes through them at an easy clip?

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Why would he rebel anyway?? So long Joffrey and Tommen are set to inherit first?

It's a slight to his house, and he wouldn't trust any new bride & her family.

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In the very introduction of the books.

It says he lacks affection and is distant from her. That's not the same thing as "loathing" her.

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He murdered his brother to get his army.

A shadow did that while Stannis slept, Stannis was expecting him to attack in the morning. And he'd offered to make Renly his heir and confirm him as lord of Storm's End prior to that in order to avoid battle and killing him.

On 3/20/2021 at 5:13 PM, Lord Varys said:

Because it is Renly who is walking around with a picture of Margaery

The king's brother would be a better person to do that than a member/flunky of House Tyrell.

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it is Renly who Stannis says wanted to put Margaery in Robert's bed

That reflects Stannis' own knowledge, which you'd expect to focus more on his own brother & member of the SC rather than House Tyrell.

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If this were a Tyrell plot, then nobody would have to urge Mace to send Margaery to court

If it was Loras who came up with it, then he would be urging his father to do it. And when Tyrion & Varys are discussing how to win over Highgarden, they note that Loras being Mace's favorite son means they should win him over in order to make an ally of Mace.

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Mace's idea to make his daughter a queen only started with the Renly plan

Both Olenna & LF tell Sansa that Mace is/was determined to make Margaery queen. This is after Renly is dead. I think it's less likely that a flip switched and he transformed into an ambitious man, but instead that his underlying ambition flares up opportunistically depending on the circumstances.

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he cannot have been all that positive about the Robert plan, or else Margaery would have shown up at KL before Robert's death

He may well have had doubts about the viability of the plan, for there wasn't a guarantee that Robert would marry Margaery specifically.

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After Renly's death the Tyrells do not pursue a 'Margaery must be queen' policy until the Lannister offer arrives

Are they supposed to come begging after first declaring someone else to be king? Tywin tried to offer Jaime instead after Joffrey died, and such chiseling is more likely if they look desperate.

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If he had, he wouldn't have needed Margaery Tyrell to destroy Cersei. And if he didn't already want to be king around the time Robert died - as quite a few people believe and the offer he made to Ned may indicate - then he would also have no big problem if Robert were succeeded by Stannis

As I noted above, if his primary objective was to destroy Cersei he could have opportunistically joined with Stannis. He didn't because he'd fantasized about being king even as a child, and he thinks of himself as having all those kingly qualities he regaled Catelyn with. His offer to Ned isn't an indication that he didn't want to be king, he instead just didn't have any reason to think Ned would support him over Stannis (whom he definitely didn't want on the throne, as he was preparing to kill him in battle over it).

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we can draw from the fact that Loras was deeply in love with Renly whereas there is no indication Renly was deeply in love with Loras

We know Loras was deeply in love based on his reaction to Renly's death. Of course we don't get to see how Renly would have reacted to Loras' death!

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and we do have indication Renly may have led a promiscuous lifestyle at court

I don't recall any other reference to anyone else Renly was involved with. Are you referring to Varys recommending the washerwoman who previously worked for him?

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Renly goal was to get rid of Cersei, it was not to make a Tyrell the new queen. That was a means to an end - destroy Cersei - not the end

There are a number of people who point Ned in an anti-Lannister direction prior to Robert's death. Lysa sends the letter accusing them of killing Jon Arryn. LF says the dagger belonged to Tryion. Varys tells him he saved Robert's life by preventing him from joining the melee as Cersei was trying to kill him. But Renly isn't among them. All he does is laugh at Joffrey for the incident at Ruby Ford. Even when Renly does suggest his plan, his emphasis is on how "the man who holds the king holds the kingdom": gaining & cementing power. And of course Renly's men would be the ones holding Cersei's children. He doesn't think he has to worry about Cersei as long as he controls the kingdom (which may explain why he he gave no indication of being worried about her prior to Robert's death).

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Pretty much nobody knew about that. Stannis suspected something, and Jon eventually shared his suspicions ... but neither had evidence much less proof

I'll agree that few had proof. Proof was hard to come by prior to the discovery of genetics. But the lack of proof doesn't mean Cersei & Tywin won't still react to quash any such rumors.

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Pycelle later indicates he may have known ... but that's at a time after Stannis has sent his letters, so we don't know whether the penny dropped before or after he heard about the letter

Pycelle sent away Maester Colemon to stop the purging. And his statement that Cersei's face told him she wanted Arryn dead fits with her own stated fears about what Arryn may have told Lysa.

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We know Lysa went to him for help when Jon threatened to foster little Robert on Dragonstone and then they killed Jon together ... so chances are not that bad that Lysa told Littlefinger about what Jon and Stannis were investigating and he first heard about the twincest that way

Cersei feared that, but Lysa's message didn't say anything about that. And she thought "the seed is strong" was a reference to Sweetrobin (whom Jon Arryn actually worried was too weak) rather than Robert's bastards looking Baratheon.

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Varys would have known for a long time, but aside from him I don't think any other person actually *knew*.

You've got different standards for *knowing* than the characters do.

On 3/21/2021 at 10:32 AM, Arthur Peres said:

Renly was usurping Joffrey, Stannis had not even pushed his claim when Renly was crowed.

After Stannis proclaimed himself king and said he'd permit Renly to keep Storm's End and be his heir, Renly still insisted on fighting him.

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Without any doubt yes. Stannis killed his brother and tried to kill his own nephew.

Stannis was asleep when Renly was killed, and Selyse was one of the people urging a reluctant Stannis to sacrifice Edric!

On 3/21/2021 at 11:54 AM, John Suburbs said:

And when she does discover this lie, not from Petyr but from Sansa

She doesn't "discover" it, she'd already heard it and squeezes Sansa until she confirms it.

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and all the while the known unrepentant liar and double-crosser is safe and sound out on his boat, way out in the bay, waiting to collect his prize

I don't think she expected LF to nab Sansa. Him being absent may have made her think he wouldn't be able to interfere like that.

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But the wine theory posits that Olenna is so concerned about Margaery's happiness

Not "her happiness" but instead a "kingslayer stew". LF even suggests that Margaery herself may not want "her queenly crown and her maidenhead", both of which she'll keep while married to Tommen.

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This is the same silly argument that has D&D correctly guessing Jon's mother as proof that Rhaegar is Jon's father

I hope that doesn't mean you're going to turn this into a ? + L = J thread.

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How did LF manage to convince a smart cookie like Lady O to take on all the risks, both with herself and her entire family

Her family are the ones already at risk of the kingslayer stew. They're not doing this as a favor for LF, him providing the poison is a favor to them.

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when it was LF who lied in the first place and then never even came clean about that lie

We didn't get to see their actual conversations.

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what the "careful reader" would conclude, which is a far cry from saying "the actual truth is . . ." All the facts in the text point to the pie

Why would GRRM's "careful reader" ignore "all the facts"!!!!!!!????? It's fine if you want to argue a reveal could come out of nowhere in the future, but GRRM is characterizing the existing text in a completely different manner.

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even GRRM's "explanations" contradict themselves. He says it was to kill him and make it look like an accidental choking. Then how on earth did they expect Tyrion to be accused of a crime?

The page I linked to doesn't have GRRM discussing Tyrion at all. LF was the one arranging for conflict between him & Joffrey, not the Tyrells.

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Why would they give him this honking huge chalice to begin with, only to make it that much more difficult to poison?

Why would it be more difficult to poison a huge chalice? A small object can be more easily hidden inside it, and it would fully dissolve in a larger quantity of wine.

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And if it was the wine, why not just have Joffrey drink his wine, grab his throat and die? Why go on for another 500 words or so in a book that it already twice as long as the other two for no reason, no point, no purpose

Are you asking why GRRM would spend a lot of words on a feast rather than just tersely hitting the essential plot points?

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Even Dontos in the godswood says Joffrey choked on pigeon pie

He was joking, laughing while denying it was murder.

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and introduce the giant chalice to make this risky operation even riskier, for her

LF had nothing to do with that, the Tyrells did, and specifically because it helped rather than hurt their poisoning plot.

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Now, if you're interested, I can tell you what Lady O is really after in this conversation. She needs to learn the truth about someone, but it's not Joffrey.

I have no idea what you're talking about, so yes you'll need to explain.

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Plus, we have the fact, incontrovertible fact, that Joffrey poses absolutely no danger to Margaery

He comes across as a psychopath, which is precisely why Sansa is afraid for Margaery.

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Also note that Joffrey does not just go around beating up maids just for fun

He kills smallfolk & Tommen's animals for fun. He orders men to fight to the death for fun. He sent a woman to the dungeons after she pled on behalf of her lover and enjoyed that, but gets bored with the actual work of doing justice. He launches debtors into the sea for fun. It's entirely consistent behavior for him to abuse people for fun. Tommen also has a powerful family, but he's scared of Joffrey.

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The idea that Joffrey is going to start beating Margy just because he beat Sansa is as silly as the idea that he will now execute Mace just because he executed Ned

He may not do publicly what he does privately.

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And if Joff ever did have a mind to publicly, or even privately, give Margy a beating, there is always Grandpa Tywin, Uncle Jaime, and others who will tell him very forcefully what a stupid thing that is to do

Is Olenna going to rely on that happening before Loras kills him?

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Rather than just reaching to the rim of a normal goblet, maybe six or eight inches off the table, she now has to reach up three feet

"She"? Again, Olenna doesn't have to do that herself. She has a taller, more athletic member of her family right there.

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And no, Garlan could not have done it either because he was at least three places away from Sansa where the chalice is.

It was already explained to you that we know Garlan got out of his seat.

On 3/21/2021 at 1:04 PM, John Suburbs said:

Brienne and Catelyn murdered Renly.

Is there any indication Stannis believes that? He sends Melisandre on a mission to deal with Cortnay Penrose, which suggests he figured out her magic was responsible.

On 3/21/2021 at 3:46 PM, Lord Varys said:

And of course Stannis is the man to break vows - the man had his brother murdered, allowed his sister-in-law to murder his other brother the king

He was asleep while that happened and he specifically said he didn't want to stain Lightbringer with his own brother's blood prior to that. And he attempted to enlist someone Robert would trust while he was in KL. The plot to spike Robert's wine only happened while Ned was there. Neither of those things is violating any oath.

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commits adultery with a foreign witch to create abominable shadow assassins, turns on the old and new gods both, and considers to sacrifice his own nephew

I'll grant you have more of a point there, but adultery is common enough among lords that Cat doesn't begrudge it in Ned (providing he had kept Jon Snow away from Winterfell), and we know Stannis was unwilling when most around him were urging him to sacrifice Edric. And on a pedantic point, Stannis has sworn oaths to the Seven even if he's disbelieved in them since childhood, but as an Andal he hasn't really "turned" on Old Gods which were never his to begin with.

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He even allowed his witch to murder his surrogate father and didn't punish her afterwards.

Cressen was poisoned by... Cressen! Stannis can hardly blame her for magically surviving an assassination attempt that killed the attempted assassin.

Nobody would care about Selyse Florent.

Jon Arryn cared enough to require Stannis to marry her.

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My idea never was that Stannis do this when Robert died ... but after he had killed Renly at Storm's End. Send envoys to Bitterbridge/Highgarden - or go yourself - and offer the Shireen deal and, in addition (and if this is necessary), also yourself for Margaery with Selyse being set aside.

He didn't do it then either. Betrothing a 9 year old to a 30 year old is a stretch.

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or a Baratheon-Tyrell grandson the new king if Shireen died early

Not if the 9 year old dies before she can birth a son!

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He would not even have to formally set Selyse aside - they would have also gone with Margaery as Stannis' second wife. And with his queer new religion, Stannis could easily enough find a pretext for polygamy - which could also find among the Targaryen and First Men kings of Westeros.

You don't even know if R'hllor permits polygamy. The Seven (whom Stannis is already married under) certainly don't.

On 3/22/2021 at 2:35 AM, frenin said:

Stannis still goes

He swore he would not treat with his younger brother while the latter still called himself a king... but he did it anyway. Because he wanted to avoid killing him.

On 3/22/2021 at 9:37 AM, Lord Varys said:

Also, Stannis does expect to have a son one day - he offered Renly to make him his heir until he has a son, and he only goes with Shireen as his heir after he killed Renly and lost Edric Storm.

Do you think he would have legitimized Edric? I suppose he could have arranged a marriage between him & Shireen to shore up a claim via Robert's descent, highlighting how Cersei's kids don't look like Robert.

On 3/22/2021 at 12:19 PM, John Suburbs said:

In fact, it is the exact opposite; Joffrey is the one who should fear Margaery

How so?

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So why is Lady Olenna taking such an extreme and risky step like killing him at his wedding directly in front of thousands of witnesses when Margaery is in no danger

It's not "no danger". If Joffrey does anything to Margaery then Loras is likely to kill him, and Olenna isn't taking that chance.

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an unconsummated marriage, which can be dissolved at any time for any reason by Cersei, who now remains as queen regent

Tywin was expected to be in charge.

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If Littlefinger and Olenna hatched the plan at Highgarden, then why is she still concerned by the "disturbing tales" of Joffrey at the dinner?

She's getting a confirmation before embarking on the actual assassination.

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There is absolutely nothing that connects the appearance of the hairnet to Lady Olenna

The connection is that Olenna fiddled with the hairnet and a stone went missing... just as LF said. He only knew because he was in cahoots with her.

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it was the note that Sansa found about meeting in the godswood

LF had sought Sansa's hand in the first book. And by having Dontos spy on Sansa he's able to hear about & disrupt the Tyrell plot to marry her off. That's separate from the assassination scheme.

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is in fact actually working with Littlefinger to ensnare her in some trap

She comes across as a completely guile-less young girl.

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There is enough here to conclude that Lady Olenna fears Queen Selyse more than King Stannis.

I don't think one reference to the Florents having a better claim suffices for that.

On 3/22/2021 at 4:09 PM, Lord Varys said:

And she is also somewhat stupid considering she completely failed to realize, apparently, to what lengths Cersei would go to destroy Margaery.

Because it's completely irrational for the Lannisters to do that. Olenna couldn't have known about the "Younger. more beautiful queen" prophecy, nor that Varys would have planted that coin to cast suspicion on the Tyrells.

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she has no idea to what lengths Cersei will go to destroy and House Tyrell once she realizes what Olenna did to Joffrey

You think she'll realize that? Right now she seems to be wrong all the time, sure that Tyrion killed Joffrey and is the valonqar.

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But it is also clear that there are things she couldn't do. She couldn't stop Mace and Loras from crowning and supporting Renly.

That's assuming you take her statement to Sansa at face-value, even though we know she was concealing her actual plans regarding Margaery's marriage.

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She couldn't stop the Joff-Margaery betrothal even after she figured out that Loras might eventually kill Joffrey.

She never tries or even brings up the notion herself (rather, Sansa does). The plan was just to kill Joffrey if the rumors turned out to be well-founded.

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The bottom line is - the Tyrells end up in camp Lannister not because some invented fear of Stannis or Selyse but rather because Stannis was too haughty and arrogant to make them the kind of offer the Lannisters made them later.

Renly & the Lannisters both had an unmarried king on offer.

17 hours ago, saltedmalted said:

Claims don't work that way. Stannis and Robert's "children" come first.

Robert's children were incestuous bastards, and Shireen is not only underage but a girl (which the Iron Precedent is supposed to prohibit on the throne).

4 hours ago, John Suburbs said:

Even if Margaery does take a few bruises someday, Loras is not going to go apeshit about it, especially if she sits him down and explains the situation and why he has to keep his cool

He went apeshit and killed two of his comrades among the Rainbow Guards.

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in any rational assessment Joffrey poses absolutely no danger to Margaery

No, you are just using your own opinion as "any rational assessment". Sansa foresees that eventuality, and can't understand why the Tyrells don't. LF gives the kingslayer stew as a motive, confirming Sansa's suspicion. And in the link I've given GRRM says "She certainly had good reasons to remove Joffrey. Everything she’d heard about him, he was wildly unstable, and he was about to marry her beloved granddaughter. The Queen of Thorns had studied Joffrey well enough that she knew that at some point he would get bored with Margaery, and Margaery would be maltreated, the same way that Sansa had been. Whereas if she removed him then her granddaughter might still get the crown but without all of the danger."

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you do take out someone who poses a clear and present danger to the power of Highgarden, and that would be Tyrion

How is Tyrion a "clear and present danger to [...] Highgarden"?

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So again, I'll state that there is no more reason to fear a beating for Margaery than to fear Ser Illyn's sword for Mace.

Ilyn doesn't just execute nobles on Joffrey's whim. There's a process for people to face judgement at all.

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All men need and desire male heirs, not just kings

No, there are men who swear off any titles, marriages & inheritances. I would instead say "all lords" rather than "all men".

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Catelyn Stark, wife of the northern lord who tried to put Stannis on the throne

That's true, but not widely known.