FictionIsntReal Posted March 27, 2021 Share Posted March 27, 2021 On 3/25/2021 at 6:38 AM, frenin said: Well it would be an obvious lie unless only goats were their witnesses for the bedding. Hence not getting his way. Quote Jaime got the title and he didn't go anywhere, the title only means that Jaime held the nominal command over all the troops of the East, it didn't mean Jaime had to go to the Vale. In a premodern world, commanding people is a lot more difficult over distance. Quote Yes, this accounts tell us what Stannis believes, what it absolutely doesn't is telling us what Robert might have done It's not physically impossible that Robert could have declared Maester Aemon to be the new king, but I'm talking in the probabilistic language of expected value. Quote Unless either you or Stannis could tell with 100% accuracy that Robert would not marry and father children right away or simply legitimize Edric because he wants his blood on the throne. 100% accuracy is not necessary. Quote Yet... He becomes jealous, resents Robert and abandon him to die. Did he have reason to think there was a murder plot against Robert at that point? Robert was still ignorant of the incest and Cersei's children stood to inherit. Quote How the Baratheons are not marked?? Stannis is. He'd been investigating the incest with Jon Arryn (whom he hadn't previously been friendly with) right before he was poisoned. Quote Someone who has commited high treason by killing the Hand of the King is not going to stop just like that Robert thinks it was natural causes, so no one is getting charged with "high treason". Quote he even ignore Med's summonings to King's Landing Since he thinks the Lannisters killed Arryn for something the two of them knew about, it would be foolish to put himself back in harm's way. And he's not going to send a raven back that Pycelle can read before it gets to Ned. Quote Stannis was preparing himself for a war a good year before anyone else got wind that trouble was coming Lysa also rushed home from KL after Jon's death, leading Jaime to dub her a "frightened cow"*. It does turn out that she's a cause of the coming trouble of course. Varys' conversation with Illyrio is also about how trouble was coming faster than they wanted it to. *In an odd bit of parallel/ironic foreshadowing, Ned thinks that Stannis fleeing could indicate guilt or fear. Quote Well, Cersei for one made it clear When did that happen? Quote By doom i mean the war that would soon start with Robert's death. The war that actually happened was not what was expected. For example, no one expected the Baratheon brothers to both declare themselves king. Cat is surprised when she hears Renly rather than Stannis has made such a declaration, and Tyrion immediately points out in response that the elder brother Stannis (who Tyrion also fears more despite Renly's numbers) wouldn't agree to such a claim. Then he & Cersei are both overjoyed when the two fight each other rather than the Lannisters. Quote he doesn't know that Cersei is going to move against him now When does he think she's going to try to kill him and how do you know? Quote There is a wat to measure it A more important factor would get higher priority. Renly & LF both talk in terms of Ned as regent holding the power Robert left via Joffrey. Quote What he says about the Lannisters is not to convince Ned, as he has given up pn him by that point. When had Renly earlier attempted to turn Ned against the Lannisters? Quote A widow of proven feritility, with the right age and the right house? I don't think Robert would care that much about "the right house". Producing a legitimate heir will take priority over the prestige of the maternal line. Quote If Robert doesn't want more political marriages he should legitimize a bastard and be done with it abdicate He did tell Ned he wanted to abdicate, but didn't because of the succession. Quote Cat knows the truth from Jaime's own lips in ACOK yet she advises Robb to bend the knee to Joffrey a book later all the same, not to Stannis, to someone he knew was a bastard and illegitimate. Stannis didn't hold any of Cat's children as a hostage, and he'd just been beaten by the Lannisters. Quote And how would that change his views at that moment?? The Starks were going to war with the Lannisters for seizing Ned (with his daughter/s) and razing the Riverlands. Renly had put himself forward as an alternative to the Lannisters. Stannis had not. Quote Marq Piper put into question Stannis's claim over Renly's army just the same. Robb Stark & Maege Mormont both insist Renly can't be king before Stannis. Piper immediately responds that "Renly is crowned", which is precisely the thing I brought up and you dismiss as not making a difference. Quote And the Reach and Stormlands had already declared for Renly and weren't seeing a conflict with Stannis likely. Stannis' statement about the incest comes in the same letter in which he declares himself king. The Stormlands do join Stannis' army, which Robb never has reason to do. Quote The official story is that the Martell allied the Lannisters however, not Stannis. What is your point in bringing up "the official story" rather than what we know to be true? Quote Tywin is making an assestment based on character, nothing else. Tywin himself doesn't know the support Stannis might have. He already knows Renly has Highgarden supporting him. Tyrion also knows this later on (after Stannis has crowned himself), but discounts it based on Stannis being an experienced military commander while Renly has never been in war even if he is "beloved of the commons". Quote We actually get to see what the support of the greater Baratheon danger is and what his prospects before murdering Renly really are!!! We never actually see Renly in a battle, though we do see him making poor decisions in his plans for one. And it's because of command ability that both Tywin & Tyrion fear Stannis more. Quote after the Blackwater he is again supported by no on Even at his lowpoint he's still able to rout Mance Rayder's army. He proceeds from there to seize Deepwood Motte & capture Asha, then move to attack Winterfell, gaining support as he achieves victories. Even the Iron Bank comes to think he could seize the throne. Quote Is Tywin an idiot?? No, i think he's simply overestimating a dangerous foe Tyrion thinks similarly. And when GRRM has both of them think something, that should indicate something to you. Stannis does in fact nearly take KL, even after Tyrion uses his chain & wildfire. Quote he believed Stannis might have had a chance to rally the Dornish to his cause... Marq Piper assumed Renly would, which was another part of his reasoning. Tyrion does not rely on that when reasoning about why Stannis is scarier than Renly. He does rely on Renly hanging back and letting Robb fight the Lannisters, which is what happens, as Renly never even leaves the Reach prior to Stannis besieging Storm's End. Quote Tommen?? Tommen is a small child. The Baratheon brothers are the closest substitutes, and when one dies men simply switch camps to the other. Quote Why the fact that Renly wasn't at Storm's End means that he's not bound to answer an attack on his castle?? The goal was not to kill Renly personally but to obtain his army. So, yes, getting him to bring that army was the idea. Quote Stannis has no ancentral seat He was born & raised there, as were his forefathers. He even commanded it when Mace Tyrell besieged it. Quote Robert gave Storm's End and the Stormlands to Renly and Stannis knew that Robert was king and head of House Baratheon, both Dragonstone & Storm's End were his to do with as he chose. Stannis inherits both the kingdom and the house. There is no sense in which Renly would have ever had authority over his older brother, whereas Robert did have the authority to insist that Stannis marry Selyse. Quote Stannis said come at dawn And Renly very foolishly let his opponent set the time of his own attack. Quote And ofc Renly had to attack his forces, how would he break the siege otherwise?? Storm's End held out a very long time when it was last besieged, before the besiegers surrendered to the relieving force without a fight. It could hold out for Renly's infantry to arrive and "besiege the besiegers" but "[t]hat choice Renly had denied himself in his headlong rush to come to grips with his brother". Quote No, you're arguing that the fact that Renly doesn't bend the knee to Stanni when he has zero to gain from it If his goal is to get rid of Cersei, then he does indeed have something to gain from it. And rather than simply dismissing Stannis' forces he says "never forget my brother Stannis, who holds Dragonstone and commands the lords of the narrow sea" when arguing his own odds to Cat. Stannis also commanded the royal fleet as Master of Ships, which would of course be useful in attacking King's Landing. Quote he never wanted to get rid of Cersei, which is simply silly I think he wanted power. Getting rid of Cersei without empowering him and/or the Tyrells wasn't of interest to him. Quote As Cressen told him, his real enemy were the Lannisters, he should have made common cause with Renly Having Renly bend the knee as his heir was Stannis' version of making common cause. An older brother never bends the knee to the younger. Quote instead of considering to approach the Arryns He DID approach Jon Arryn, who was murdered as a result. Lysa can hardly substitute, Jon wanted to foster his son with Stannis to get him away from her. And when he was ready to make his announcement, he sent it out to all the lords of the realm he could. Quote She doesn't call it errors but rashness and admits that Renly is a lot like Robert and Robert was noted for his leadership, even when he didn't have Ned with him. Renly does have Mathis Rowan, who tells him Stannis can't actually take Storm's End, and Randyll Tarly who objects to the vanguard charging into the blinding sun. Unlike Robert, Renly does not change his plans in response to such points. We can see in the Winds of Winter Stannis again counting on the foolishness of the commander attacking him, whereas he has a grudging respect for Robert as a military thinker, imagining that "even Robert" would be proud of the victory Stannis & Renly could have won. Quote Still with the Tywin line huh?? Tywin and Tyrion both. Every Westerosi lord knows Stannis is an experienced commander who has maintained order even during the most desperate circumstances. Quote The people who flock to his banner do so after Tywin dies The more important death was Robb Stark's, since the Northmen had been fighting under Robb against Tywin. The Boltons betrayed Robb for Tywin, and they remain Stannis' enemies in the North. Quote Without Tywin dying, Stannis would have rotten either on the Wall or on Dragronstone. Not Dragonstone, he had already left before news of Tywin's death. Quote Besides that, the most important factor is that Stannis never mentions such plans In a Catelyn chapter? She's not going to hear his plans. We pick up with Davos after Renly has already died and Stannis is remembering how he failed to wake up for the battle. No need to discuss plans that won't be executed then. And we don't know all the details of his plans for the Battle of Ice either, though he's quite confident he'll beat a foe with an on-paper advantage. Quote Stannis drawing his sword on a fit o anger after his brother implies that he is being cuckolded by a buffoon is transformed into Stannis carefully testing the effects of his swords on horses Oh, I don't believe he was "carefully testing". Rather, he would have tested it in private so Renly couldn't see and was actually making an error by letting Renly see the effect it had. A more competent commander than Renly would have updated on such info rather than gambling everything on an initial charge into the sun. Quote Stannis would later say to his closest confidant that he would seek justice for Ned Stark... And we know how truly Stannis feels about Ned What are you trying to say? Stannis doesn't have to like somebody to demand justice for them. The whole deal with Davos' fingers is that Stannis demands a strict application of justice regardless of his other feelings toward someone. He also promised Cat he would deliver her daughters... dead or alive. It wasn't an attempt to curry favor with her, just what he thought was just. Quote There was a sizable garrison on Storm's End that would have fallen on his rear anyway, making most of the plan moot Stannis is capable of having his troops defend a flank from a threat coming from a fixed position within sight of his siege engines. Quote I don't really see the problem with Loras, Stannis has Ser Guyard leading his van at the Blackwater andLoras actually is one of the ones leading Tywin's relieve forces. Renly did not wait for the rest of his host, so he has ONLY his cavalry, and his entire plan was to bank on a single charge from that vanguard. Stannis at the Blackwater had basically the worst possible beginning (the chain & wildfire) but was able to recover from it to nearly win the battle. The relief force came late in the battle when Stannis' forces were already busy fighting the city's defenders. Quote four books and counting Why would he bother bringing it up in a later book? The Battle of Ice will show what Stannis would actually do defending against a numerically superior foe relying on cavalry, and without any need for him to say "You know, this reminds me of the battle I never had with Renly. Anyway, back to the present..." Quote Renly bending the knee (preferable outcome) Which could also happen if Renly and/or Loras are captured in the battle, a common fate for nobles in medieval warfare. On 3/25/2021 at 2:41 PM, John Suburbs said: If Joffrey doesn't realize this, grandpa Tywin will be sure to explain it Joffrey doesn't simply listen to his grandpa, because he's a stupid brat. On 3/25/2021 at 8:25 PM, John Suburbs said: But you have it I never said that. I cited others who were discussing that factoid & Ran's confirmation about that specific point. Quote it was based on this lie and this lie alone that you say Mace agreed to this match Even the moast oafish pufferfish is not going to base on his decision on LF's praise alone. He's basing it on the appeal of a marriage alliance, just as he did with Renly. Quote what an unbelievably poor understanding of Lady Olenna Tyrell Whereas you have a perfect understanding of House Tyrell, including what a demon in the sack Margaery is despite being a virgin. You personally don't think Olenna would do something so you insist that's the only view possible, despite the app & GRRM himself making clear that she poisoned the wine to kill Joffrey and protect Margaery. Quote And it killed Cressen in as little as five seconds after a half-swallow of unremarkable-looking wine. Then, Joffrey takes multiple huge chugs of wine that is supposed to be so thoroughly poisoned Weren't you objecting earlier that the huge chalice would dilute the poison? There you go. Quote Not a bad assumption, provided Tyrion is even in the room at the time and not off to the privy You know who's guaranteed to be at Joffrey's wedding where everyone can see him as much as possible? Joffrey. Which is why the plan for Sansa to escape was always going to be there. Quote Joff's favorite toy is his new sword, which he is wearing, so he could just as easily have grabbed that I don't understand what you think Joffrey would have done. He's not going to give the sword to Tyrion. Quote I'm not even going to go into the scientific reasons why greater dilution will not affect the timing of the poisoning anyway That's really unfortunate given your immense understanding of the scientific properties of this fictional poison. By the way, have you ever seen The Wolf of Wall Street? There's a very funny scene involving some expired quaaludes I'd like your scientific opinion on. And while you're at it, a scientific discussion of how the crystal would dissolve in the pie. Quote No, the conspirators did not create the chalice or the poison I said "prepared", not "created", which would be obvious to you if you learned how to quote properly. Quote I'm not talking about the descriptions of the feast before the poisoning Those are entirely relevant to GRRM's stance on what is "superfluous" and how constrained he is by page limits. Quote Joff could, and should, have just drunk one gulp, grabbed his throat and dropped It's not supposed to be immediately obvious to the reader or the characters. With Cressen we knew ahead of time he had poisoned the wine. Quote Literally, Joffrey tells you, with his dying breath, "It's kof, the pie, kof, noth, pie." Do you think he's lying here? He's dying, but he wants to screw with everybody by making it seem like the poison was in Tyrion's pie? Of course not, Joffrey is just wrong (as he so often is). Quote If Dontos doesn't know which bit was poisoned, why does he specifically reference the pie? People can choke on pie without it being poisoned, and in his joke he was denying what actually happened. Quote Everybody else instantly suspects the wine, even Sansa All blithering idiots, according to you, who ignore the insight of Joffrey's self-diagnosis. Quote And if for some reason Sansa does not tell the truth about Joffrey and maintains the bit about how comely and polite he is? That's what she initially attempted, but Olenna could tell she was lying. And Sansa being terrified of what Joffrey would do if she told the truth about him is more evidence of Joffrey's character. Quote if you decide not to go ahead, please don't tell the queen, or the hand, or the king, because surely that will cost me my head What evidence does she have against him that he wouldn't have against her? Quote Nobody thinks their punishment was harsh or cruel. It's shortsighted. Their debts will never be repaid. Quote These duels to the death never take place. No one ever mentions them There's no more need to mention them again than the lady he sent to the dungeon. Quote Joffrey does not go around all day beating and tormenting people at random just for fun. Every cruel act had a reason behind it. Sure he does, he's cruel to Tommen because he enjoys it. Tyrion & Varys theorize it's pent up sexual urges, and discuss getting him a prostitute to alleviate his irrational outbursts. Quote Utterly impossible for her not to see Garlan or anyone else suddenly reaching up to it and then back down Sansa doesn't think that's a "hole" in LF's story because she knows better than you how closely she was watching the chalice and how likely it was that someone could have poisoned it (which as you noted, is her assumption rather than the pie) without her noticing. Quote Garlan using poison to kill his king, a weak 13yo boy would not be honorable, and Garlan is as honorable a knight as they come. He pretended to be Renly's ghost at the Blackwater. That's relying on deception & superstition. Loras had earlier relied on the trick of using a mare in heat during a tourney, even if others would consider that dishonorable. The Tyrells are like a less evil & more pragmatic version of the Lannisters. Robert was famously honorable, sending his maester to tend to Ser Barristan rather than himself after the Trident, but he still had Varys dispatch an assassin (using poison, as it turns out) to kill Daenaerys after she wed Khal Drogo. If the Tyrells were as honorable as the Starks, they wouldn't have joined up with the Lannisters, particularly since Margaery indicates she knows Robert didn't father Cersei's children. Quote Cersei and Robert and Jaime are not Joffrey and Margy and Loras. Yeah, Loras is younger & more of a hothead than Jaime! Quote getting rid of Tyrion furthered both of their GoT goals Tyrion wasn't at all comparable to Joffrey as a target for the Tyrells. LF already had Dontos give Sansa the hairnet and promise her freedom after Joffrey's wedding in ACoK. That's before the Tyrell marriage plot resulted in Sansa marrying Tyrion, but importantly AFTER the Tyrells had agreed with LF to marry Margaery to Joffrey. Do you think Olenna had already agreed to poison Tyrion's pie at that point just for funsies? Sansa's marriage to Tyrion happens quickly after LF spills the beans, so the Tyrells don't have much time to react to it prior to Joffrey's wedding. LF himself "leaves" within a day of it revealing the plot and Tyrion's marriage being ordered. How likely is it that he got Olenna to agree on the fly to this new target using a poison he just happened to have prepared with Sansa in advance? Quote even Joffrey knows, that if anything happens to Margaery the alliance is shattered and Joffrey Joffrey knew he wasn't supposed to hurt his hostage in Sansa to prevent any harm to Jaime, but he did it anyway. Tywin tries to explain to Joffrey that he needs to help his former enemies back up when they bend the knee, but Joffrey has no mind for the necessity of pragmatic alliances in a war. Joffrey is always characterized as a dummy who screws up his family's plans with his terrible decisions. Quote But even if you insist there must be wine, just read the text. Joffery starts choking after washing the pie down with wine If there's an undissolved stone in some pie, a person could see it and at minimum avoid ingesting it. And if the stone was swallowed whole & undissolved most of it would dissolve in the stomach away from the throat. Quote The contingency plan? What's the contingency, Olenna backs out and rats Littlefinger out to the queen? The Tyrells make a marriage alliance with the Lannisters via Joffrey. If Joffrey turns out to be as bad as feared, the contingency plan (already prepared) is to poison him and replace him with Tommen. If she decides Joffrey isn't bad enough, then the wedding simply proceeds without any poisoning. Quote Sansa is highly suspicious of the Tyrells. She doesn't understand why they don't fear Joffrey the way she does, so either they are intentionally deceiving her or they are idiots. Sansa assumes she must be missing something that she can't figure out, she doesn't suspect they're deceiving her: "Sansa was surprised that Margaery did not see it too. She is older than me, she must be wiser. And her father, Lord Tyrell, he knows what he is doing, surely. I am just being silly." Sansa wasn't being silly. All her reasoning was correct. She just didn't know about the assassination plot. And what happens if it is "perhaps as long as a year" before Joffrey "show his claws" and Loras kills him? Even if Margaery has given birth by that time, it would still mean a civil war with the Lannisters and no real confidence they can hang on. Quote And I suspect it's because his first choice of poisoner has been asking to attend the feast for weeks now, but Tyrion won't let her Does LF even know about Shae? He could have sold her out to Cersei, but she grabbed Alayaya instead. Quote She is not scheming with LF at the time of the dinner with Sansa. That's just your head canon. The assassination plot has ALREADY started, with Dontos giving Sansa the hairnet and promising her freedom after Joffrey's wedding. How was he going to get Olenna to agree to her part at that point? Quote the delivery of the letter to Sansa's room Which bit are you referring to? Quote At the time the poison was delivered, Tyrion was probably not the target What an impressive plan of LF's that can change high-profile targets and participants so easily. Quote So the hairnet, as I said Where did you say this? I try to organize the quotes that I'm responding to, but it's a lot more difficult to keep track of a conversation with you. Quote most likely the wedding Dontos specifically told her they had to wait for Joffrey's wedding. Where Joffrey would obviously be. Quote Remember, they don't just need to kill Tyrion, they need to create a diversion to get Sansa out without little birds seeing. This can't happen if they just kill Tyrion in his apartments. If they conspired a diversion for Sansa to slip away in, then shouldn't the Tyrells have made sure Sansa slipped away with them? They don't even have to kill Tyrion to end his marriage to Sansa if they have her, since it was never consummated (and this is an open secret in the Red Keep). Plus, wouldn't killing Sansa's husband seated next to her direct more attention toward her, making it more difficult for her to slip out? Quote But they do know that Joffrey does not just go around hurting and torturing people for no reason No, they don't. He really does just enjoy hurting people, even when it's contrary to his family's strategies. Quote Joff will be surrounded by flatterers and fools So was Aerys (to whom Joffrey is often compared), and he frequently hurt his wife, much to the disturbance of Jaime. Jaime was told it wasn't his job to protect the queen from the king, but I don't think Loras will buy that when the queen is his sister. Quote She's a tough chick, and smart. How do you know all this about her? She's not a POV character, nor directly connected to any of the POVs. The TV show made her a political player, but that was with extra scenes without POV characters and with an actress significantly older than the character. Quote The Lords Declarant saw through the Alayne story the moment they asked her how old she is Provide some evidence they came to any such conclusion. They just make jokes about LF's little finger and whether she's still a maiden. Quote save perhaps for Slynt. This was not the plan That was exactly what I was saying! Slynt had to be bribed in advance (probably by LF). Without an arrest & confession from Mace to be sentenced for and without LF to bribe the Goldcloaks, he's not going to be at risk of execution. Quote just like Cersei screws with House Baratheon and the ruling Baratheon dynasty Cersei ensured all her children were fathered by her twin brother in the KG, which is not exactly an option for Lady Sansa Tyrell. Sansa doesn't even have remaining family to help her. Quote Just like Lady Olenna most likely killed her own husband Alright, how did she make his horse run off the cliff? Quote Yes, the Reach is a low-lying fertile (meaning rich) area with kingdoms on all sides Not "all sides", it was coasts on the west and the south. The ratio of border to land is much lower compared to the Riverlands. The Riverlands border every other kingdom except for Dorne. The Reach doesn't have any border with the North or the Vale. Nor is its large interior as easily accessible to the Ironborn as all the rivers of the Riverlands are. Quote Think of it as if Russia were to suddenly gain control of Mexico, Canada, Western Europe and Japan All of those places have republican forms of government, whereas we're talking about marriages in a feudal context. Quote Genna Lannister is married to Emmon Frey, who's being tapped to become the next Lord of Riverrun He's not even to be head of House Frey. And he won't be Lord Paramount of the Riverlands either: "Read your parchment. You were granted Riverrun with its lands and incomes, no more. Petyr Baelish is the Lord Paramount of the Trident. Riverrun will be subject to the rule of Harrenhal." Quote Hostages are for ensuring the good behavior of your lords. Yes, you can threaten your lords with the death of said hostages. And if they take hostages (as Robb did), then you can trade. But beating Sansa didn't serve any purpose other than Joffrey's sadism. It certainly didn't stop Robb from beating the Lannisters, rather the Lannisters tried to avoid Robb even hearing about it so he wouldn't do the same to Jaime. Quote The implication is that Joffrey molested Tommen. That's why he had to "go away inside." That's not necessary with simple bullying. Jaime is the one who recommends "going away inside" to Tommen after talking about the smell of Tywin's corpse. Jaime didn't do that under Aerys because the king was molesting him. And Tommen wasn't about to start talking about being molested. Quote They were storming the gate At the gate, but not storming it, just yelling rather than trying to break through. Quote You can predict future behavior from past behavior. Joffrey has never harmed a highborn maid other than Sansa, and he had reasons for Sansa Try talking to anybody who knows anything about domestic violence. You can indeed predict past behavior from future behavior. Sansa is Joffrey's first fiance, he doesn't exactly have a long track record of exes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frenin Posted March 27, 2021 Share Posted March 27, 2021 8 hours ago, FictionIsntReal said: Hence not getting his way. He didn't get his way because he couldn't. He didn't get his way because the king didn't want to humour him. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lord Varys Posted March 28, 2021 Share Posted March 28, 2021 On 3/26/2021 at 1:03 PM, SeanF said: Over time, I think Joffrey and Margaery would have become a reprise of Aerys and Rhaella. Considering Joff's personality and ego that's not all that likely. Aerys II also mistreated and abused his sister-wife, but only got really bad after Duskendale when the man became a complete mental wreck. Of course, those rapes were horrible, but I don't think the Mad King really was in control of himself during those moments. This man was suffering from a real mental illness, and therefore is (to a point) not responsible for his actions. Joffrey, on the other hand, wasn't mad. He had narcissistic and sadistic tendencies, and unlike Rhaella - who was her king's sister-wife - Margaery Tyrell comes from a family of upjumped stewards. Joff would always himself as being much better than her, having better blood and being better for being a strong man. As soon as Joff realized how Margaery was manipulating him - especially after he started to rule in his own right - he would lash out, and it would not be pretty. On 3/26/2021 at 11:54 AM, Ran said: I will say that Joffrey's abusive nature was not just expressed in Sansa, but also in what Tommen hinted at when speaking with Jaime. I think it highly unlikely to suppose he would not be capable of abusing Margaery. He was let loose on Sansa, in a way Joffrey would not be on Margaery to begin with... but the fact that as age and accrued power brought fewer and fewer restraints, who's to say? What is quite clear was that he was given to cruelty and sadism and he practiced those things when there was little to nothing to oppose him. Yes, and we should also consider that Tywin was troubled by Joff's attitude in ASoS. Really troubled, if we follow Tyrion's judgment there. And if one thinks about what kings can and have done in this society, even the great Tywin could expect that the best treatment he could expect from his royal grandson after Joffrey came of age would be the treatment Aegon II gave his grandfather, Otto Hightower, when he lost patience with that old man. Margaery Tyrell would be completely at Joff's mercy at that time, and even after the wedding - when most of the Tyrells were back at Highgarden - Joff could start to do what he wanted in the marriage bed, etc. There would still be some restraints, one imagines, during the remainder of his minority and because Margaery is a very sweet girl who knows how to manipulate people. But we know from Sansa that it is basically up to Joffrey's mood whether he wants to play the gentleman or not ... if he is really pissed for some reason he will do what he wants, and you cannot really sweet-talk him into anything. On 3/26/2021 at 11:54 AM, Ran said: As to Mace, I think he was not open to hearing a narrative that spoke against marrying Margaery to Joffrey. To the degree that Littlefinger gilded the lily, it was because it hastened the alliance moreso than that it was necessary to acquire the alliance, IMO. Though, it's true, if he just told them how horrible Joffrey was all the time, that would have thrown a kink in the works. But it's not like Littlefinger could do that openly, nor did he want to, since the whole point of his duplicity was to affect the alliance while finding a secret ally to help him sow more chaos down the line. That is a pretty good take. It is a pity we still don't know much about factionalism at Highgarden, and what the various people there told Mace they should do after they had word of Renly's death? Did Olenna push for complete neutrality then? Where there people suggesting they should throw in their lot with Stannis, arguing that doing nothing could go bad for them if the Lannisters, after they had won the war, would remember the treason they committed by crowning Renly? I imagine that Loras' influence with his father played a crucial part that Littlefinger's offer was viewed favorably. Loras was mad with grief after he lost Renly, and, in my opinion, his anger over that loss - although he doesn't seem to have believed Stannis was directly involved - was the deciding factor that most of the Reach lords at Storm's End returned to Bitterbridge and did not join Stannis. If Loras hadn't pushed them in that direction Randyll Tarly, say, may have followed the example of his father-in-law, Alester Florent. But the interpretation of Littlefinger creating more chaos with the Joffrey murder doesn't really add up. It was a calculated murder to stabilize the Lannister-Tyrell alliance, and Littlefinger himself apparently hoped that this would give him the five years of peace to build something in the Vale. For him, Joff was a loose cannon, too, somebody he had to remove from the board before he could become a real problem. Joffrey's death only becomes a devastating blow to the Lannister-Tyrell alliance in combination with Tywin's unexpected death - but neither Littlefinger nor Olenna ever wanted to murder Tywin. How exactly the mechanics of the plot to murder Joffrey worked after Littlefinger convinced Olenna that Joff had to be taken out with his manipulation leading to Loras joining the KG is also a thing we should discuss in more detail. There are a couple of confusing things there George hopefully elaborates when he returns to Olenna and the Joffrey plot in the books (i.e. when the entire thing eventually unravels): Littlefinger teamed up with Olenna to murder a king. That needs a good deal of trust or at least familiarity. How did they establish that kind of working relationship? That they must have conspired directly is implicitly confirmed by the hairnet. I guess Littlefinger may have gone to Highgarden before on behalf of the Crown to arrange for some of the loans Mace granted Robert, but could that establish the kind of trust you need/want when you murder a king? Littlefinger also seems to know a lot about the internal mechanics of the Tyrell machine. He had his people tell the truth about Joffrey behind the scenes but did not expect that this would lead to Mace rejecting the offer. That is something you can only do if you know how things behind the scenes work ... and that certain powers at Highgarden might consider murder a legitimate way to resolve the Joffrey problem. And what is our take on the Sansa scapegoat role? If we go with Littlefinger as the man behind Mandon Moore's attempt on Tyrion's life then we would assume that Littlefinger would not consider Tyrion a likely scapegoat at the time of the discussions at Highgarden - because he would expect to see him dead upon his return (or that Mandon would take him out at a later point but before the wedding). In that sense, the idea would be that they both agreed on Sansa as the scapegoat if they couldn't go with the 'the boy joked on the wine/food' take, which clearly was their ideal scenario. If that were the case, how genuine was then the offer to take Sansa to Highgarden and marry her to Willas? Were they even that interested in Sansa's claim - chances that Willas Tyrell would ever want to live and rule at Winterfell are very low, and he and Sansa couldn't live apart if they wanted to have children. But then - Sansa confirms the truth about Joffrey and Olenna even extends another offer to Sansa to go to Highgarden with her at the wedding feast ... so was she just kind there, to a point? Did she and Margaery and Alerie and whoever else was on the whole plot just save Sansa from more harm if they could? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SeanF Posted March 29, 2021 Share Posted March 29, 2021 12 hours ago, Lord Varys said: And what is our take on the Sansa scapegoat role? If we go with Littlefinger as the man behind Mandon Moore's attempt on Tyrion's life then we would assume that Littlefinger would not consider Tyrion a likely scapegoat at the time of the discussions at Highgarden - because he would expect to see him dead upon his return (or that Mandon would take him out at a later point but before the wedding). In that sense, the idea would be that they both agreed on Sansa as the scapegoat if they couldn't go with the 'the boy joked on the wine/food' take, which clearly was their ideal scenario. If that were the case, how genuine was then the offer to take Sansa to Highgarden and marry her to Willas? Were they even that interested in Sansa's claim - chances that Willas Tyrell would ever want to live and rule at Winterfell are very low, and he and Sansa couldn't live apart if they wanted to have children. But then - Sansa confirms the truth about Joffrey and Olenna even extends another offer to Sansa to go to Highgarden with her at the wedding feast ... so was she just kind there, to a point? Did she and Margaery and Alerie and whoever else was on the whole plot just save Sansa from more harm if they could? My take on it is that Olenna would have discussed Sansa with Littlefinger, and he would have promised to bear her to safety. But, if Littlefinger failed, the Tyrells were hardly going to admit to the truth in order to save Sansa. Sansa would have died horribly, and no one would have lifted a finger. As an alternative to your suggestion that Margaery falls victim to the fAegon/Arianne regime, I could see her being condemned at her trial, if Varys releases information that implicates her in the plot to poison Joffrey. That is a far more serious charge than adultery, and would be hugely destablilisng to the government. I think it stands to reason that Margaery must at least have been aware of what was intended, as her family would not want her to drink the poisoned wine by mistake. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John Suburbs Posted March 29, 2021 Share Posted March 29, 2021 On 3/26/2021 at 11:41 PM, FictionIsntReal said: Joffrey doesn't simply listen to his grandpa, because he's a stupid brat. I never said that. I cited others who were discussing that factoid & Ran's confirmation about that specific point. Even the moast oafish pufferfish is not going to base on his decision on LF's praise alone. He's basing it on the appeal of a marriage alliance, just as he did with Renly. Whereas you have a perfect understanding of House Tyrell, including what a demon in the sack Margaery is despite being a virgin. You personally don't think Olenna would do something so you insist that's the only view possible, despite the app & GRRM himself making clear that she poisoned the wine to kill Joffrey and protect Margaery. Weren't you objecting earlier that the huge chalice would dilute the poison? There you go. You know who's guaranteed to be at Joffrey's wedding where everyone can see him as much as possible? Joffrey. Which is why the plan for Sansa to escape was always going to be there. I don't understand what you think Joffrey would have done. He's not going to give the sword to Tyrion. That's really unfortunate given your immense understanding of the scientific properties of this fictional poison. By the way, have you ever seen The Wolf of Wall Street? There's a very funny scene involving some expired quaaludes I'd like your scientific opinion on. And while you're at it, a scientific discussion of how the crystal would dissolve in the pie. I said "prepared", not "created", which would be obvious to you if you learned how to quote properly. Those are entirely relevant to GRRM's stance on what is "superfluous" and how constrained he is by page limits. It's not supposed to be immediately obvious to the reader or the characters. With Cressen we knew ahead of time he had poisoned the wine. Of course not, Joffrey is just wrong (as he so often is). People can choke on pie without it being poisoned, and in his joke he was denying what actually happened. All blithering idiots, according to you, who ignore the insight of Joffrey's self-diagnosis. That's what she initially attempted, but Olenna could tell she was lying. And Sansa being terrified of what Joffrey would do if she told the truth about him is more evidence of Joffrey's character. What evidence does she have against him that he wouldn't have against her? It's shortsighted. Their debts will never be repaid. There's no more need to mention them again than the lady he sent to the dungeon. Sure he does, he's cruel to Tommen because he enjoys it. Tyrion & Varys theorize it's pent up sexual urges, and discuss getting him a prostitute to alleviate his irrational outbursts. Sansa doesn't think that's a "hole" in LF's story because she knows better than you how closely she was watching the chalice and how likely it was that someone could have poisoned it (which as you noted, is her assumption rather than the pie) without her noticing. He pretended to be Renly's ghost at the Blackwater. That's relying on deception & superstition. Loras had earlier relied on the trick of using a mare in heat during a tourney, even if others would consider that dishonorable. The Tyrells are like a less evil & more pragmatic version of the Lannisters. Robert was famously honorable, sending his maester to tend to Ser Barristan rather than himself after the Trident, but he still had Varys dispatch an assassin (using poison, as it turns out) to kill Daenaerys after she wed Khal Drogo. If the Tyrells were as honorable as the Starks, they wouldn't have joined up with the Lannisters, particularly since Margaery indicates she knows Robert didn't father Cersei's children. Yeah, Loras is younger & more of a hothead than Jaime! Tyrion wasn't at all comparable to Joffrey as a target for the Tyrells. LF already had Dontos give Sansa the hairnet and promise her freedom after Joffrey's wedding in ACoK. That's before the Tyrell marriage plot resulted in Sansa marrying Tyrion, but importantly AFTER the Tyrells had agreed with LF to marry Margaery to Joffrey. Do you think Olenna had already agreed to poison Tyrion's pie at that point just for funsies? Sansa's marriage to Tyrion happens quickly after LF spills the beans, so the Tyrells don't have much time to react to it prior to Joffrey's wedding. LF himself "leaves" within a day of it revealing the plot and Tyrion's marriage being ordered. How likely is it that he got Olenna to agree on the fly to this new target using a poison he just happened to have prepared with Sansa in advance? Joffrey knew he wasn't supposed to hurt his hostage in Sansa to prevent any harm to Jaime, but he did it anyway. Tywin tries to explain to Joffrey that he needs to help his former enemies back up when they bend the knee, but Joffrey has no mind for the necessity of pragmatic alliances in a war. Joffrey is always characterized as a dummy who screws up his family's plans with his terrible decisions. If there's an undissolved stone in some pie, a person could see it and at minimum avoid ingesting it. And if the stone was swallowed whole & undissolved most of it would dissolve in the stomach away from the throat. The Tyrells make a marriage alliance with the Lannisters via Joffrey. If Joffrey turns out to be as bad as feared, the contingency plan (already prepared) is to poison him and replace him with Tommen. If she decides Joffrey isn't bad enough, then the wedding simply proceeds without any poisoning. Sansa assumes she must be missing something that she can't figure out, she doesn't suspect they're deceiving her: "Sansa was surprised that Margaery did not see it too. She is older than me, she must be wiser. And her father, Lord Tyrell, he knows what he is doing, surely. I am just being silly." Sansa wasn't being silly. All her reasoning was correct. She just didn't know about the assassination plot. And what happens if it is "perhaps as long as a year" before Joffrey "show his claws" and Loras kills him? Even if Margaery has given birth by that time, it would still mean a civil war with the Lannisters and no real confidence they can hang on. Does LF even know about Shae? He could have sold her out to Cersei, but she grabbed Alayaya instead. The assassination plot has ALREADY started, with Dontos giving Sansa the hairnet and promising her freedom after Joffrey's wedding. How was he going to get Olenna to agree to her part at that point? Which bit are you referring to? What an impressive plan of LF's that can change high-profile targets and participants so easily. Where did you say this? I try to organize the quotes that I'm responding to, but it's a lot more difficult to keep track of a conversation with you. Dontos specifically told her they had to wait for Joffrey's wedding. Where Joffrey would obviously be. If they conspired a diversion for Sansa to slip away in, then shouldn't the Tyrells have made sure Sansa slipped away with them? They don't even have to kill Tyrion to end his marriage to Sansa if they have her, since it was never consummated (and this is an open secret in the Red Keep). Plus, wouldn't killing Sansa's husband seated next to her direct more attention toward her, making it more difficult for her to slip out? No, they don't. He really does just enjoy hurting people, even when it's contrary to his family's strategies. So was Aerys (to whom Joffrey is often compared), and he frequently hurt his wife, much to the disturbance of Jaime. Jaime was told it wasn't his job to protect the queen from the king, but I don't think Loras will buy that when the queen is his sister. How do you know all this about her? She's not a POV character, nor directly connected to any of the POVs. The TV show made her a political player, but that was with extra scenes without POV characters and with an actress significantly older than the character. Provide some evidence they came to any such conclusion. They just make jokes about LF's little finger and whether she's still a maiden. That was exactly what I was saying! Slynt had to be bribed in advance (probably by LF). Without an arrest & confession from Mace to be sentenced for and without LF to bribe the Goldcloaks, he's not going to be at risk of execution. Cersei ensured all her children were fathered by her twin brother in the KG, which is not exactly an option for Lady Sansa Tyrell. Sansa doesn't even have remaining family to help her. Alright, how did she make his horse run off the cliff? Not "all sides", it was coasts on the west and the south. The ratio of border to land is much lower compared to the Riverlands. The Riverlands border every other kingdom except for Dorne. The Reach doesn't have any border with the North or the Vale. Nor is its large interior as easily accessible to the Ironborn as all the rivers of the Riverlands are. All of those places have republican forms of government, whereas we're talking about marriages in a feudal context. He's not even to be head of House Frey. And he won't be Lord Paramount of the Riverlands either: "Read your parchment. You were granted Riverrun with its lands and incomes, no more. Petyr Baelish is the Lord Paramount of the Trident. Riverrun will be subject to the rule of Harrenhal." Yes, you can threaten your lords with the death of said hostages. And if they take hostages (as Robb did), then you can trade. But beating Sansa didn't serve any purpose other than Joffrey's sadism. It certainly didn't stop Robb from beating the Lannisters, rather the Lannisters tried to avoid Robb even hearing about it so he wouldn't do the same to Jaime. Jaime is the one who recommends "going away inside" to Tommen after talking about the smell of Tywin's corpse. Jaime didn't do that under Aerys because the king was molesting him. And Tommen wasn't about to start talking about being molested. At the gate, but not storming it, just yelling rather than trying to break through. Try talking to anybody who knows anything about domestic violence. You can indeed predict past behavior from future behavior. Sansa is Joffrey's first fiance, he doesn't exactly have a long track record of exes. When Joffrey doesn't listen to his grampa, grampa sends him to his chambers with a cup of dreamwine. Tywin is running the show here, not Joffrey, and Tywin has both the means and the motive to ensure no harm comes to Margaery, from anyone. So you don't have the app and you are just reporting hearsay as fact. Got it. The oaf puff fish who blustered and yammered while his sharp-eyed, sharp-tongued mother negotiated the marriage and alliance did not base any decision on anything. He was even manipulated into putting Loras on the KG. This is how easy it is to get Mace to do what you want him to do. Margaery is hardly a virgin, nor is she an innocent, blushing maid. We can see that from the way she manipulated both Joffrey and Tommen. She knows exactly what she is doing. And I'm not saying she will be a demon in the sack. She will be whatever Joffrey wants her to be. And again, if you have never seen what's in the app, don't bother trying to use that as evidence of your theory. And the only thing GRRM has made clear as that he makes no promises for the books. Yes, the huge chalice produces the possibility that it could be diluted to the point that the poison is rendered ineffective. Or maybe it won't. It depends on how much wine it holds at the time it is poisoned. This makes it far less reliable than a standard goblet. But according to the wine theory, the single crystal did turn it deep purple, which means Joffrey was getting way more poison that Cressen could possible get, which means (again, according to the faulty reasoning of the wine theory), that Joffrey should have dropped faster than Cressen, not slower. So once again, the wine theory runs counter to the actual facts in the book, just like it does at virtually every step of the way. Joffrey at his own wedding, sure. But so is Cersei, Tywin, Kevan and any number of other people. Maybe Joffrey was the intended target back when the hairnet was delivered, but I doubt it. He's too valuable at this point. Joffrey with his new sword and he's angry at Tyrion, and you think he's going to give Tyrion the sword? He's going to threaten to kill him then and there, just like Tyrion threatened to do to Joffrey at his own wedding. So, no, bringing the chalice into their argument is not guaranteed, not by a longshot. The strangler is a contact poison. It hits the throat, penetrates the soft palate and cuts off the windpipe. It does not bypass the throat, enter the stomach, pass into the blood stream, circulate throughout the body, then go to work on the throat once it has collected in significant amounts. If it did, then neither victim would have felt anything for at least a minute, and probably more. So in this way, the strangler is like ammonia. If you drink a shot of ammonia, it burns you instantly and you would probably die. If you poured the shot into a large glass of water and drank that, it would still burn you instantly, just not as badly and you might survive. If you placed a drop of ammonia into the large glass of water and drank that, you wouldn't feel the burn at all, but then it doesn't reconstitute itself inside you body to come back and burn your throat. Human physiology doesn't work that way. So diluting the strangler is not going to delay the attack, it will only less it's severity, quite possible to the point where it would not cut Joffrey's breath off completely and he would survive. So again, using the chalice only increases the chance of failure here. The crystal dissolves near instantly in wine, which means it has a very weak structure. So it would dissolve more slowly in hot, moist pie filling just like any other similar crystal, say sugar or salt. We saw how it began to dissolve in the hairnet just from the heat and oils in Sansa's hair, as I've already explained. Prepared or created, there is no reason why the alchemist or the jeweler needs to know what any of this is for. So no, they were not part of this conspiracy. Yes, all the descriptions of the feast beforehand are entirely relevant to the plot. What is completely irrelevant is all the bother about Joffrey eating the pie and taunting Tyrion afterward because the plot has already established the rationale for Tyrion to be accused of the murder. So why bother with it? Why shouldn't the poisoning be immediately obvious to the readers? If everything is all exactly as it seems and the poison was in the wine end of story, then why bother with subterfuge here? Joffrey is the one person who can feel everything that is happening in his mouth. He felt nothing at all when he drank his big gulps of wine, then he could feel a slight choking sensation after he ate the pie but before he drank again, and now he's getting it in a big way with the pie washed down his throat. So this is perfectly consistent all the way through: no issue with the wine, choking wherever he feels the pie. Those are the facts. Just saying he is wrong about all of this is making up facts to suit predetermined head canon. Like I said, Lady O already has ample evidence of Joffrey's character. She does not need to confirm what she already knows from a complete stranger like Sansa. What evidence does Lady O have? According to you she knows about the hairnet, and Dontos, and apparently the chalice that is just as likely to kill Margaery as Joffrey. And this will all scotch her decades long plan to make Margaery a queen. So she has more than enough evidence and motivation to send Petyr to the good Ser Ilyn. The lady, and the singer, were commoners. The two ordered to fight to the death were knights. There's a difference. These are noblemen who came to the crown to settle their disagreements, like they are supposed to do. And Joffrey orders them to perform a blood sport simply for his amusement, but no one ever mentions this again, never laments the loss of poor Ser Whomever who was mistreated this way? Sorry, didn't happen. The only time we hear of Joffrey mistreating Tommen was the one comment about Tommen going away inside when "sometimes" Joffrey . . . So this was most likely molestation, not simple bullying, and this is probably the one secret that neither Littlefinger nor Lady Olenna knows about. Tyrion discussed sending Joffrey to a brother after Bronn raised the idea, not Varys, and it had nothing to with Joff's cruelty, just that he might be old enough. Sansa doesn't think it's a hole in the story because she is a naive young girl who believes whatever you tell her. She doesn't know how to think things through, and probably thinks it was done when the chalice was not right in front of her. Honestly, Sansa is the rock of truth in the wine theory? Sansa who has failed to comprehend a single truth throughout the entire story, and still doesn't even realize the danger she is in because of the complete impossibility of the Alayne story? Did you read the quote I posted? Why does the crowd laugh? Garlan still marched out into the thick of battle and killed an uncounted number of men. Deception is not dishonorable. Robb used it to feint his attack on Riverryn; Tyrion used it to trap Stannis' fleet on the Blackwater. Regardless of whose armor he was wearing, this was a very brave thing to do -- completely counter to the weak-minded sniveling coward who would kill a young boy with poison to turn himself into a kingslayer before the gods. Jaime slew his king in cold blood. Loras slew three men what he saw his king and lover lying in his own blood, a complete shock. There is absolutely no reason anyone would think Loras will run amok at the sight of a little bruise.. Again, where do you get the idea that the hairnet could only have been delivered if Lady Olenna is part of this plot? If it's already decided that she will be the poisoner, then why doesn't she just keep the poison herself? Why all this nonsense with the hairnet? There is no evidence that LF leaves King's Landing after spilling the Willas plot. Lysa says she has not seen him in months, so he's obviously not in the Vale like he's supposed to be. And it's not like Tyrion and Sansa were married the very next day. So there was plenty of time to meet with Lady Olenna and hash this out. Petyr didn't just "happen" to have the poison in place. It was there to create the diversion to get Sansa out of the capital. The victim and the target were TBD. At this point, Tyrion was presumed dead. Was LF planning to frame him at the wedding too? Yes, Joffrey is an idiot. That's why uncle Jaime will be right there in command of the kingsguard so he doesn't keep screwing things up for House Lannister. Margaery is in absolutely no danger. Enough of the crystal will have dissolved into the filling to choke the victim. Again, it had already started dissolving in the hairnet that day. Tyrion does not pick through his food looking for poison. That's ridiculous. Any discoloration is hidden by both the crust and the lemon cream on top, not to mention the fact that the filling is already dark brown or even purplish.. Lol "the wedding proceeds without any poisoning", except for the fact that Littlefinger still wants to poison the king and ruin the marriage and the alliance. But that's OK, Lady Olenna, you decide what you want to do and get back to me . . . Sorry, no, Sansa's reasoning is not correct. Loras is not going to loose it over a bruise or a black eye. And "if after a year", Margaery will have produce one child, and will likely have another on the way. She can certainly withstand a few bruises it that's what it takes, but it won't come to that because Joffrey does not go around beating people for no reason and he is completely infatuated with her. Again, trust Sana's judgement at your own peril. I suspect Shae is working for Petyr, but that's another theory. How does Petyr get Lady O to join the plot at this late stage? As I've already explained, by creating the motivation for her to want Tyrion dead as well. She has no motivation to kill Joffrey, ever, because Margaery is in absolutely no danger. Which bit? The bit about the letter in Sansa's room to "meet me in the godswood." This was the actual start of the plan, and it took place long before anyone had any idea that Margaery would end up marrying Joffrey. Of course they can change targets whenever they want. The poison can be given to anyone at any time, as long as you know that they will be the one to consume the item being poisoned. They can easily reason that only Tyrion will eat his pie, but they have no way of knowing that only Joffrey will drink the wine and not Margaery, and they have no way of knowing where the chalice will be at the only moment when poisoning it has even the slightest chance of not being seen: right when the doves take flight. It's just as difficult to track conversations when you are arguing with three different people in a single thread. And regardless of whether I copy and paste all your comments, I still have to scroll up and down to see what we're talking about. That's why I try to frame my answers with the comments you made, but it doesn't always work. Anyway, thus the hairnet, as in, the only reason the hairnet was necessary is because he didn't have his poisoner lined up yet. He can't keep the poison himself because he can't trust his eventual poisoner with it -- they could use it to rat him out. He can't give it to Dontos because he'd just sell it and go on a bender, or rat him out. The only safe place is with Sansa, precisely because she is so naive. All she knows is that she must wear it to the wedding if she wants to go home. So no matter how the plan shakes out from here, he knows that the Sansa, the poison and the eventual poisoner and target will be at the same place at the same time, while he is safe and sound out on his boat. Yes, Joffrey is going to be at his own wedding. But everyone is going to be at the wedding. Literally everybody who is anybody will be at this wedding. The Tyrells have no way of getting Sansa out of the capital without being seen. It is highly unlikely that they know about the secret stairs down the cliffside. I wonder if even Varys knows about that. Only Petyr has the means to get her away cleanly. Tyrion all purple and bug-eyed on the ground with Garlan and whomever else pounding on him will create enough of a diversion to slip Sansa away. Have you ever seen anyone choke to death? I have. Nobody will be paying the slightest bit of attention to Sansa, until they realize she is gone. Joffrey does not just hurt people at random. Everyone he's hurt was hurt for a reason -- not a good reason, perhaps, but a reason. He doesn't just go around hurting people at random just for kicks. Unlike Sansa, Margaery is smart enough not to get on his bad side. She is probably the only person in the world that he doesn't despise. Yes, Aerys had his flatters and fools, and he only mistreated the fools and those who challenged his authority. Margaery is neither a fool nor an opponent. And it took decades for Aerys to devolve to the point where he was savaging his wife, after she had delivered two heirs -- and still the Tyrells supported him as their king. Jaime's experience with Aerys and Rhaella makes it all the more unlikely that he will not let this slide with Joffrey, especially since he will not just be LC but Joffrey's regent, or acting regent. Margaery is in absolutely no danger. There is not a single fact that supports the idea that she is, just the misinformed fancies of a young, naive, maid who literally misinterprets everything she sees and hears. We can see how Margaery operates right before our eyes. How she manipulates Joffrey, how she outwits Cersei in their conversations, how she manipulates Tommen to drive a wedge between him and his mother. She is smart, tough, confident -- because that's the way Lady Olenna raised her. The very first question that Lady Waynewood asks Sansa is "how old are you child?" And Sansa says, 14. So right off the bat they know that the Alayne story is a lie because Petyr only got his "minor sinecure" ten years ago. Then he would have had to work his way to chief of customers, maybe a year at minimum, then meet this merchant's daughter, wait nine moons for a child to be born . . . Alayne should be nine at the very oldest, which she obviously is not. Claiming to be 14 is absolutely ridiculous, and every lord and lady in the Vale will know this, but Sansa is utterly oblivious. Joffrey can execute anyone at anytime with whatever evidence he chooses. He does not need to ask permission. He can just order it done. The idea that Margaery is in danger because Sansa was in danger is as silly as the idea that Mace will be executed just because Ned was. Heck, according to you, he could order Mace to fight someone to the death, on the morrow, and it's done. Yes, Sansa has no remaining family to help her, unlike Margaery who has Mace, Garlan, Loras, all their guards and the entire Tyrell army to keep her safe. So once again, Margaery is in absolutely no danger. No one is going to harm her, least of all Joffrey who is utterly infatuated with her. Why should we believe anything at all about this horse running off a cliff? Horses don't do that. And if he was out hawking, which is the only reason I can think of for looking up at the sky, then he shouldn't have been moving at all because he'll just lose his hawk that way. And hawking is never done near cliffs anyway because the bird just drops the kill down to the bottom where your dogs can't get it. So literally everything is wrong with this story, but you have to open your eyes and look at the facts to see it. Lady O also lied about breaking her engagement to Daeron T, lied about expecting Tyrion to lead great hosts to war, and she undoubtedly knew exactly what the stink was at Tywin's funeral. This is how she operates: lies, needles, cajoles, flatters, so that the other person's emotional brain takes over for their rational brain to give her insight into their true character or to gain some kind of advantage. And she's not the only one who does this, as the careful reader can see. Lol, OK, all sides where there is land. The Riverlands has some natural protection while the Reach is just league after league of open farmland and gently rolling hills. And yet invasions of the Reach are few and far between and rarely get very far, except once. Why, when this is the most prosperous, fertile land on the continent? Really? Russia is a republic? I think most people view it as a dictatorship. But regardless of the form of government, the impact is the same: this is a radical alteration of the balance of power that has existed in Westeros for 5,000 years or more. A smart cookie like Lady O is not going to let it go without a fight, especially to a mad warlord like Tywin Lannister. This is what the Game of Thrones, the only game that matters, is all about. Who said anything about House Frey? Lyonel will one day become Lord of Riverrun. And Lords Paramount titles can be bestowed on anyone the king sees fit, and the current king serves under a regent, a Lannister regent, for the next three years. Beating Sansa served the purpose of sending a message to the other lords following the loss at Oxcross: think twice about who you support because the crown will win in the end, and to prove it I will beat Robb's sister. That was the point. She was there to "answer for your brother's crimes", not "I feel like beating someone today so you're up kid." Jaime says to "go away inside", which is the same advice he gave to Brienne when it looked like she was about to be raped, and Tommen says that is what he used to do when Joffy . . . So who knows what he was about to say when Cersei interrupted, but going away inside is implied by the text to be related to sexual abuse. But sure, it can also be used when you're own rotting hand is draped around your neck or when you see a man being roasted alive. Is this the kind of abuse you say Joffrey is inflicting on Tommen? Strange that nobody has ever seen this. The peasants at the gate: It was serious enough that the KG and the palace guard were summoned, so it had to have been a sizable crowd. And again, the only reason this happened at all was because the Tyrells had cut off the food supply. I think you meant to say "predict future behavior from past behavior"? Why would anyone need to predict past behavior? But yes, this is exactly what I said to begin with, you can predict future behavior from past. And this is why they know that Joffrey is not going to just up and start beating Margaery because there is nothing in his past behavior that suggests he does this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lord Varys Posted March 29, 2021 Share Posted March 29, 2021 9 hours ago, SeanF said: My take on it is that Olenna would have discussed Sansa with Littlefinger, and he would have promised to bear her to safety. But, if Littlefinger failed, the Tyrells were hardly going to admit to the truth in order to save Sansa. Sansa would have died horribly, and no one would have lifted a finger. I don't think Olenna and Littlefinger did agree on Sansa in a positive sense. She is clearly one - and perhaps the original - scapegoat they intended to use, if we assume that Littlefinger only decided to prop up Tyrion for that role after he learned he was still alive, but the scapegoat is just a contingency. The ideal scenario was that they could sell Joff's death as an accident. When exactly they switched to Tyrion as the scapegoat we don't know, but we would also assume that Littlefinger only dispatched Oswell to Braavos to hire the dwarfs after his return to KL, so one would assume that Olenna and Littlefinger had further talks about their little project in KL, possibly at the godswood or with the help of a loudly singing fool. If the Tyrells were already set on Tyrion as the scapegoat - and both Garlan buttering up Tyrion all the time as well as Taena later accusing Tyrion of being the poisoner could indicate as such - then Olenna and Margaery may have indeed just wanted to do their best to take Sansa out of harm's way ... if that were possible. Olenna's final offer to take Sansa to Highgarden comes right at the wedding feast, after all. If Sansa had committed herself to her then and there, she may have decided to do everything in her power to ensure Sansa does not go down with Tyrion. And that could worked, say, if all the Tyrells involved had testified that Sansa had nothing to do with the poisoning because they were watching her the entire time, etc. 9 hours ago, SeanF said: As an alternative to your suggestion that Margaery falls victim to the fAegon/Arianne regime, I could see her being condemned at her trial, if Varys releases information that implicates her in the plot to poison Joffrey. That is a far more serious charge than adultery, and would be hugely destablilisng to the government. I think it stands to reason that Margaery must at least have been aware of what was intended, as her family would not want her to drink the poisoned wine by mistake. Margaery is definitely in on the plot, you can draw that from the simple fact that she isn't concerned when Sansa tells her about Joff's true character. I never thought about the Joffrey plot unravelling under a King Aegon VI, but that certainly could happen. But Varys would likely only drop that bomb - assuming he has evidence or at least hints implicating the Tyrells in that plot - if there was need for it. That could be the case if even after Kevan and Pycelle's murder Mace and Cersei were still willing to work together. I don't think they will, but if they would, for some reason, then the next step to escalate things between them would be to drop the Joffrey bomb there. What we can say, though, is that Cersei would never forgive or forget that thing, and I'm pretty sure that this revelation is going to be what turns her into a completely loose cannon who is going to do everything in her power to destroy her enemies, no matter what happens to the world or other people. But I'd rather expect that the Joffrey is going to unravel in the more distant future, when Littlefinger is once again more in the thick of things, and Olenna an actual character again. I do have a feeling that Sansa is not exactly pleased how she was used by them, and part of clearing her own name of the stigma of kingslaying - which she should undertake, if she ever wants to become a player in the open - is to bring the actual guilty parties to justice. Although it is certainly possible that Cersei figures out or starts to get suspicious about the role of the Tyrells in her son's death before that happens. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FictionIsntReal Posted April 1, 2021 Share Posted April 1, 2021 On 3/28/2021 at 4:08 PM, Lord Varys said: the interpretation of Littlefinger creating more chaos with the Joffrey murder doesn't really add up This is how he describes his own motivations for that: "If they are never certain who you are or what you want, they cannot know what you are like to do next. Sometimes the best way to baffle them is to make moves that have no purpose, or even seem to work against you." He wanted the Lannisters to be looking in the wrong places for enemies rather than at him, and to go unnoticed as he prepared to (openly) turn against them. The plan would be presented to the Tyrells as a way to stabilize that alliance, but LF doesn't plan to remain under that regime. He also says he expected Cersei to self-destruct in her idiocy, but not that it would happen so fast while noting "it is a good thing that I thrive on chaos". So he's less miffed than Varys & Illyrio were about things going sideways at a faster than expected pace. If we go with Littlefinger as the man behind Mandon Moore's attempt on Tyrion's life That seems like a bit of a stretch. He was out of the city in the runup to the battle, and Moore only had the opportunity amidst some unexpected chaos after Tyrion led a charge. If LF can't predict Tyrion is going to do any of that, he can't know that Mandon will have the chance to discretely murder Tyrion. And since Mandon is already a KG, there's not a good way to bribe him (unlike the usual lowly cutouts LF uses). On 3/29/2021 at 1:03 PM, John Suburbs said: When Joffrey doesn't listen to his grampa, grampa sends him to his chambers Joffrey is going to share his chambers with Margaery. you are just reporting hearsay as fact I provided a link to someone else noting that Ran confirmed that specific factoid, with a Discord link included as a citation. That the app itself says it was the wine rather than the pie is verifiable information, not "hearsay". The problem with "hearsay" is that the person who said something isn't available to answer. But Ran actually is available to discuss the statement attributed to him, and the app is available to verify that it does specify the wine. For what it's worth here's another thread on things confirmed by the app, which itself links to a confirmation from the NotABlog that GRRM supplied the information. Margaery is hardly a virgin Do you have any basis for claiming that? LF refers to her as still having her maidenhead, and while an examination did show that she lost it, Cersei assumes it was horseriding that did that. Cersei thinks Renly consummated the marriage because Taena said he was aroused during the bedding ceremony, but Loras' presence seems like a sufficient explanation. But according to the wine theory, the single crystal did turn it deep purple It's sometimes described as purple, and sometimes as red. you think he's going to give Tyrion the sword? Work on your reading comprehension. I wrote "He's not going to give the sword to Tyrion". Note the "not". He's going to threaten to kill him then and there, just like Tyrion threatened to do to Joffrey at his own wedding Tyrion made that threat when Joffrey made a threat against Sansa. The dwarf jousting is intended to belittle Tyrion and humiliate him, so that Joffrey will want to mock him rather than threaten him. If LF had arranged for something to humiliate Joffrey, then perhaps Tyrion might laugh and Joffrey would threaten him. The strangler is a contact poison. It hits the throat, penetrates the soft palate and cuts off the windpipe. That's if it's dissolved in wine. If it's a solid crystal, that's a different story. Do you know how people sometimes choke when swallowing a powder in "the cinnamon challenge"? It's not nearly as risky in non-powder form. If you drink a shot of ammonia, it burns you instantly and you would probably die Ammonia is a gas at room temperature, so you can't "drink a shot" of it. Ammonia is normally sold already dissolved in water (a 28% ammonia solution is most common). The strangler, in contrast, is a solid crystal by default. The crystal dissolves near instantly in wine, which means it has a very weak structure Crystals are typically formed by ionic compounds, and those dissolve in polar substances like water or wine. Fatty or oily substances are typically non-polar and can be used to dissolve other non-polar molecules like lipids. Tell me: is the pigeon pie polar or non-polar? like any other similar crystal, say sugar or salt Salt is an ionic compound (as polar as it gets). Sugar is polar. oils in Sansa's hair Those would be non-polar. Having the hairnet dissolve in her hair would be very undesirable. Prepared or created, there is no reason why the alchemist or the jeweler needs to know what any of this is for. So no, they were not part of this conspiracy. The conspirators don't need to tell the alchemist or jeweler about the conspiracy. The alchemist can simply be asked about what quantities it can dissolve in and how effective it would be, and the jeweler can then be told to make an appropriately sized chalice. Why shouldn't the poisoning be immediately obvious to the readers When discussing this with EW George said "I wanted to make it little bit unclear what exactly has happened here, make the readers work a little to try and figure out what has happened." But still the "careful reader" should conclude Olenna poisoned Joffrey to prevent him from hurting Margaery. predetermined head canon It's not simply "head canon", GRRM himself has discussed this and Ran got confirmation when making the app. On the tv show for which GRRM was a producer, we even got multiple scenes of Olenna admitting to deliberately poisoning Joffrey just like LF confessed to Sansa. According to you she knows about the hairnet, and Dontos Just the hairnet, she doesn't need to know how it got there. I don't think LF wants her to pay attention to Dontos, since Dontos is going to steal Sansa away. And this will all scotch her decades long plan to make Margaery a queen No, it didn't scotch that. Margaery still became queen, but with the more pliable Tommen instead of the unpredictable & sadistic Joffrey. The lady, and the singer, were commoners She's referred to as just "a woman", but we don't know whether she was a smallfolk or not. Joffrey orders them to perform a blood sport simply for his amusement He doesn't need to be a spectator himself, just like he doesn't need to view the woman once she's in the dungeon. And since we never got the names of these knights, why expect any reference to "Ser Whomever"? We see him hand down three rulings and the patterns are that he's a sadist and his orders are followed anyway. The only time we hear of Joffrey mistreating Tommen Joffrey killed the fawn Tommen adopted and insulted him for crying at Myrcella's departure. Tyrion discussed sending Joffrey to a brother after Bronn raised the idea, not Varys, and it had nothing to with Joff's crueltyNo, it was a matter of some pretty teats. After that business in the yard, Tyrion had spoken with Varys about how they might arrange for Joffrey to visit Chataya's. A taste of honey might sweeten the boy, he hoped. The "business in the yard" was Joffrey having Sansa stripped & beaten. Tyrion think's there's a sexual edge to Joffrey's sadism and that the brothel might help satiate that. Sansa doesn't think it's a hole in the story because she is a naive young girl who believes whatever you tell her. She thinks there IS something she's missing when Olenna & Margaery act blase in response to Sansa admitting how awful Joffrey is. She even has the same reasoning LF provides: Loras as KG and Margery as queen makes for a kingslayer stew. Honestly, Sansa is the rock of truth in the wine theory No, she's provides one of many pieces of evidence in the text in addition to the explicit confirmations outside of it. Did you read the quote I posted? I don't know what quote you're referring to because you're so terrible at organizing your posts so I know what you're responding to! There is absolutely no reason anyone would think Loras will run amok at the sight of a little bruise.. Not merely seeing the after-effects, but seeing Joffrey abuse Margaery right in front of him, or at minimum within earshot (just as Aerys used to hurt Rhaella). If it's already decided that she will be the poisoner, then why doesn't she just keep the poison herself The hairnet being delivered to Sansa was important in getting her to trust that there was a plan to get her out. And the hairnet is going to remain on Sansa rather than Olenna for misdirection. If anyone says "Hey, the crystals on Olenna's hairnet look kind of like the Strangler, and I saw her fiddling with it", then she looks suspicious. If Sansa gets blamed, then Olenna just looks like a kind old lady who had no idea she was touching poisonous crystals. There is no evidence that LF leaves King's Landing after spilling the Willas plot As far as the Small Council was concerned, he had left KL for the Vale to marry Lysa "on the morrow", and it's even said that it's best he doesn't linger. It turns out that he's on a boat just offshore of KL, but if he had stuck around in the city itself Varys could have informed the SC that he lied about leaving immediately. Varys' spies in the city also make it more difficult to conspire with Olenna there. She really has no further reason to meet with LF after they've negotiated the marriage as far as the regime is concerned. Petyr didn't just "happen" to have the poison in place At the time Tyrion's marriage to Sansa was revealed, the hairnet had already been delivered to Sansa. So Petyr would need to go to Olenna with the news after the meeting where he said he was going to the Vale, reveal that Tyrion was going to marry Sansa, say he had already provided Sansa with a poison hairnet to wear at Joffrey's wedding just in case or something and that it could be used to poison Tyrion so Sansa would escape. Olenna would then need to buy this story enough to take on the part of retrieving the poison from said hairnet and then FAIL TO GRAB SANSA DURING THE DIVERSION PLANNED SPECIFICALLY FOR THAT!? It was there to create the diversion to get Sansa out of the capital Then why wasn't Olenna prepared for Sansa's escape? Enough of the crystal will have dissolved into the filling to choke the victim I haven't seen any of your calculations for this. Again, it had already started dissolving in the hairnet that day The fact that it leaves a smudge does not mean it has "dissolved". If you're going to make it into jewelry you'd probably put a thin coating on it for the sake of its appearance, and that would likely be the source of the smudge. And that smudge is said to be in the silver locket, NOT Sansa's skin or hair. Tyrion does not pick through his food looking for poison If you're going to pull off the assassination plot, you shouldn't just hope your intended victim simply doesn't notice the crystal you've inserted in his food. And "if after a year", Margaery will have produce one child, and will likely have another on the way Producing heirs is a less reliable process than you might think. Most conceptions result in a miscarriage, and half of all births are female. The bit about the letter in Sansa's room to "meet me in the godswood." This was the actual start of the plan, and it took place long before anyone had any idea that Margaery would end up marrying Joffrey. There's nothing about the assassination in that plan. No hairnet, and no linkage of the time to Joffrey's wedding. Instead Dontos just says he needs to arrange for a ship while Sansa needs a way to get out of the castle. The ship of course would actually be arranged by LF rather than Dontos. Dontos is there to gain Sansa's trust by posing as her "Florian" thankful for her saving his life. Of course they can change targets whenever they want. The poison can be given to anyone at any time Good to know you found it so easy for all the many assassinations at royal weddings you've rejiggered. They can easily reason that only Tyrion will eat his pie It's hardly marked to be as unique as Joffrey's goblet. And as for Tyrion's actual reaction to the pie in front of him: "he found them no more appetizing than the white ones fluttering about the hall. Sansa was not eating either". Good thing she wasn't hungry, or she might have eaten her husband's pie along with her own. Whereas it's entirely expected for the king to drink from his new chalice, and it would be considered something of an insult for him not to use it. Perhaps Olenna really is as dumb as a box of rocks and never considered whether Tyrion actually likes pigeon pie in the first place. they have no way of knowing that only Joffrey will drink the wine and not Margaery Margaery is part of the family of conspirators. They can easily arrange in advance for her not to drink anymore after an initial bit to make her look innocent. Whereas a hypothetical hungry Sansa has not been warned that Tyrion's pie would be poisoned. regardless of whether I copy and paste all your comments, I still have to scroll up and down to see what we're talking about The person READING your comment DOESN'T have to scroll up IF you quote properly! The style guide even says to quote the specific things you need to rather than necessarily using the whole comment. He can't give it to Dontos What are you talking about? He DID give it to Dontos, who did as he was told and gave it to Sansa rather than selling it. The Tyrells have no way of getting Sansa out of the capital without being seen Then why the hell would they agree to this plan whose whole point, in your view, was to do JUST THAT!? Nobody will be paying the slightest bit of attention to Sansa People paid attention to Margaery when Joffrey was poisoned. Unlike Sansa, Margaery is smart enough not to get on his bad side It was very smart of her not to be present when Joffrey was humiliated at Ruby Ford, or to be related to Ned Stark. Really good decisions on her part. and he only mistreated the fools and those who challenged his authority No, he killed one mistress and her entire family after accusing them of the death of his infant son. This was after beheading the wetnurse he initially blamed. And his wife frequently cried "You're hurting me" in the bedroom. especially since he will not just be LC but Joffrey's regent, or acting regent That would be Tywin. Petyr only got his "minor sinecure" ten years ago We never actually see him tell anyone other than Sansa that version of the story. As he notes, it's not considered polite to inquire into a man's bastards. Claiming to be 14 is absolutely ridiculous Claiming to be 9 would be ridiculous. Myranda even notes that "Alayne" has "ample" breasts for her stated age. Heck, according to you, he could order Mace to fight someone to the death, on the morrow, and it's done. Only if Mace brings a dispute to be judged by the king. So literally everything is wrong with this story If Lothor is an idiot, then he could very well do the things you claim would never be done while hawking. Lol, OK, all sides where there is land The fact that so much of the circumference of the Reach is NOT a land border distinguishes it from the Riverlands. The United States also has borders on "all sides where there is land", but it's a lot better protected than the Low Countries like Belgium or the Netherlands. Really? Russia is a republic? I think most people view it as a dictatorship. It's officially not a monarchy or an empire. Its governed by people who are officially elected by the voters. North Korea is also a republic (a "people's democratic" one!) officially, and they've got a multi-generation dynasty in place. Russia has not had dynastic succession since the Romanovs. But regardless of the form of government, the impact is the same No it isn't! The politics of marriage alliances depend on aristocratic houses being the basic units of politics! Who said anything about House Frey? You brought up Emmon Frey's marriage to Genna Lannister, and I'm pointing out it's not that important. As a member of House Frey, he is subject to the head of that House. Beating Sansa served the purpose of sending a message to the other lords following the loss at Oxcross: think twice about who you support because the crown will win in the end, and to prove it I will beat Robb's sister Beating Robb's sister doesn't prove anything! That's why his uncle, who is actually trying to preserve the regime Joffrey is destabilizing, puts a stop to it. Sansa even feels safer with Cersei of all people around to restrain Joffrey. I think you meant to say "predict future behavior from past behavior"? Correct. I reversed it but you got the meaning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lord Varys Posted April 1, 2021 Share Posted April 1, 2021 20 hours ago, FictionIsntReal said: This is how he describes his own motivations for that: "If they are never certain who you are or what you want, they cannot know what you are like to do next. Sometimes the best way to baffle them is to make moves that have no purpose, or even seem to work against you." He wanted the Lannisters to be looking in the wrong places for enemies rather than at him, and to go unnoticed as he prepared to (openly) turn against them. The plan would be presented to the Tyrells as a way to stabilize that alliance, but LF doesn't plan to remain under that regime. He also says he expected Cersei to self-destruct in her idiocy, but not that it would happen so fast while noting "it is a good thing that I thrive on chaos". So he's less miffed than Varys & Illyrio were about things going sideways at a faster than expected pace. Check the context: Sansa is flabbergasted that Littlefinger would arrange Joff's murder - after all, he did give him Harrenhal and made him Lord Paramount of the Trident. And Joff is a stone in his shoe, so to speak. They are not enemies, of course - neither are the Lannisters, as we well know, aside from the very general sense that they are all rivals for the ultimate price - but Joff's minority is only going to last three more years, and then he will rule in his own right. And then Littlefinger's work is going to be more difficult, since that boy is very difficult to control, pretty stupid, and prone to sadistic cruelty. Killing Joffrey doesn't create chaos, it stabilizes the Lannister-Tyrell alliance and House Lannister as such, since power will now be longer and more directly in Tywin's hands, who can rule in Tommen's name eight more years, rather than the three years left to the end of Joff's minority. Littlefinger has nothing to do with the tragedy that really crippled Lannister power - Tywin's death. If Tywin had lived, Cersei would have never gotten the opportunity to fuck things up. When Littlefinger took Sansa to the Vale he expected to lay low there for years or decades, even, as long as it would take for Tommen to grow up and Tywin to die or return to Casterly Rock. Once Tywin dies, Cersei takes over, and things start to unravel so he has to improvise. Quote That seems like a bit of a stretch. He was out of the city in the runup to the battle, and Moore only had the opportunity amidst some unexpected chaos after Tyrion led a charge. If LF can't predict Tyrion is going to do any of that, he can't know that Mandon will have the chance to discretely murder Tyrion. And since Mandon is already a KG, there's not a good way to bribe him (unlike the usual lowly cutouts LF uses). Littlefinger is the main suspect for the man behind the Mandon Moore attempt. The connection is Moore's weird personality as well as his humble background in the Vale. The idea isn't that he was bribed to do this. It is quite clear that neither Cersei nor Joffrey were behind it ... the only other option is that Moore for some reason decided all by himself to kill Tyrion, and that wouldn't be very satisfactory ... nor would it be easy for George to reveal that this was the case in the novels. And this mystery is going to be resolved in the future. There is also no reason to expect that the only way Moore could murder Tyrion 'discreetly' is by helping Tyrion leading a charge - as the Hand and a member of queen's family Tyrion was surrounded by Kingsguard rather often ... meaning there were many opportunities for Moore to arrange a mortal accident for Tyrion. He waited for the inevitable battle that would come, but if Tyrion hadn't led the charge Moore could have found some other opportunity at the same day - he could have thrown him off the city wall during an inspection, he could have pushed him into the dried moat outside Maegor's, he could have pushed him down a steep flight of stairs, he could have even just slain him while they were riding through the city when noboby was looking, claiming some other guy did it, etc. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John Suburbs Posted April 1, 2021 Share Posted April 1, 2021 13 hours ago, FictionIsntReal said: 1) That seems like a bit of a stretch. He was out of the city in the runup to the battle, and Moore only had the opportunity amidst some unexpected chaos after Tyrion led a charge. If LF can't predict Tyrion is going to do any of that, he can't know that Mandon will have the chance to discretely murder Tyrion. And since Mandon is already a KG, there's not a good way to bribe him (unlike the usual lowly cutouts LF uses). 2) Joffrey is going to share his chambers with Margaery. 3) I provided a link to someone else noting that Ran confirmed that specific factoid, with a Discord link included as a citation. That the app itself says it was the wine rather than the pie is verifiable information, not "hearsay". The problem with "hearsay" is that the person who said something isn't available to answer. But Ran actually is available to discuss the statement attributed to him, and the app is available to verify that it does specify the wine. For what it's worth here's another thread on things confirmed by the app, which itself links to a confirmation from the NotABlog that GRRM supplied the information. 4) Do you have any basis for claiming that? LF refers to her as still having her maidenhead, and while an examination did show that she lost it, Cersei assumes it was horseriding that did that. Cersei thinks Renly consummated the marriage because Taena said he was aroused during the bedding ceremony, but Loras' presence seems like a sufficient explanation. 5) It's sometimes described as purple, and sometimes as red. 6) Work on your reading comprehension. I wrote "He's not going to give the sword to Tyrion". Note the "not". 7) Tyrion made that threat when Joffrey made a threat against Sansa. The dwarf jousting is intended to belittle Tyrion and humiliate him, so that Joffrey will want to mock him rather than threaten him. If LF had arranged for something to humiliate Joffrey, then perhaps Tyrion might laugh and Joffrey would threaten him. 8) That's if it's dissolved in wine. If it's a solid crystal, that's a different story. Do you know how people sometimes choke when swallowing a powder in "the cinnamon challenge"? It's not nearly as risky in non-powder form. 9) Ammonia is a gas at room temperature, so you can't "drink a shot" of it. Ammonia is normally sold already dissolved in water (a 28% ammonia solution is most common). The strangler, in contrast, is a solid crystal by default. 10) Crystals are typically formed by ionic compounds, and those dissolve in polar substances like water or wine. Fatty or oily substances are typically non-polar and can be used to dissolve other non-polar molecules like lipids. Tell me: is the pigeon pie polar or non-polar? 11) Salt is an ionic compound (as polar as it gets). Sugar is polar. 12) Those would be non-polar. Having the hairnet dissolve in her hair would be very undesirable. 13) The conspirators don't need to tell the alchemist or jeweler about the conspiracy. The alchemist can simply be asked about what quantities it can dissolve in and how effective it would be, and the jeweler can then be told to make an appropriately sized chalice. 14) When discussing this with EW George said "I wanted to make it little bit unclear what exactly has happened here, make the readers work a little to try and figure out what has happened." But still the "careful reader" should conclude Olenna poisoned Joffrey to prevent him from hurting Margaery. 15) It's not simply "head canon", GRRM himself has discussed this and Ran got confirmation when making the app. On the tv show for which GRRM was a producer, we even got multiple scenes of Olenna admitting to deliberately poisoning Joffrey just like LF confessed to Sansa. 16) Just the hairnet, she doesn't need to know how it got there. I don't think LF wants her to pay attention to Dontos, since Dontos is going to steal Sansa away. 17) No, it didn't scotch that. Margaery still became queen, but with the more pliable Tommen instead of the unpredictable & sadistic Joffrey. 18) She's referred to as just "a woman", but we don't know whether she was a smallfolk or not. 19) He doesn't need to be a spectator himself, just like he doesn't need to view the woman once she's in the dungeon. And since we never got the names of these knights, why expect any reference to "Ser Whomever"? We see him hand down three rulings and the patterns are that he's a sadist and his orders are followed anyway. 20) Joffrey killed the fawn Tommen adopted and insulted him for crying at Myrcella's departure. 21) The "business in the yard" was Joffrey having Sansa stripped & beaten. Tyrion think's there's a sexual edge to Joffrey's sadism and that the brothel might help satiate that. 22) She thinks there IS something she's missing when Olenna & Margaery act blase in response to Sansa admitting how awful Joffrey is. She even has the same reasoning LF provides: Loras as KG and Margery as queen makes for a kingslayer stew. 23) No, she's provides one of many pieces of evidence in the text in addition to the explicit confirmations outside of it. 24) I don't know what quote you're referring to because you're so terrible at organizing your posts so I know what you're responding to! 25) Not merely seeing the after-effects, but seeing Joffrey abuse Margaery right in front of him, or at minimum within earshot (just as Aerys used to hurt Rhaella). 26) The hairnet being delivered to Sansa was important in getting her to trust that there was a plan to get her out. And the hairnet is going to remain on Sansa rather than Olenna for misdirection. If anyone says "Hey, the crystals on Olenna's hairnet look kind of like the Strangler, and I saw her fiddling with it", then she looks suspicious. If Sansa gets blamed, then Olenna just looks like a kind old lady who had no idea she was touching poisonous crystals. 27) As far as the Small Council was concerned, he had left KL for the Vale to marry Lysa "on the morrow", and it's even said that it's best he doesn't linger. It turns out that he's on a boat just offshore of KL, but if he had stuck around in the city itself Varys could have informed the SC that he lied about leaving immediately. Varys' spies in the city also make it more difficult to conspire with Olenna there. She really has no further reason to meet with LF after they've negotiated the marriage as far as the regime is concerned. 28) At the time Tyrion's marriage to Sansa was revealed, the hairnet had already been delivered to Sansa. So Petyr would need to go to Olenna with the news after the meeting where he said he was going to the Vale, reveal that Tyrion was going to marry Sansa, say he had already provided Sansa with a poison hairnet to wear at Joffrey's wedding just in case or something and that it could be used to poison Tyrion so Sansa would escape. Olenna would then need to buy this story enough to take on the part of retrieving the poison from said hairnet and then FAIL TO GRAB SANSA DURING THE DIVERSION PLANNED SPECIFICALLY FOR THAT!? 29) Then why wasn't Olenna prepared for Sansa's escape? 30) I haven't seen any of your calculations for this. 31) The fact that it leaves a smudge does not mean it has "dissolved". If you're going to make it into jewelry you'd probably put a thin coating on it for the sake of its appearance, and that would likely be the source of the smudge. And that smudge is said to be in the silver locket, NOT Sansa's skin or hair. 32) If you're going to pull off the assassination plot, you shouldn't just hope your intended victim simply doesn't notice the crystal you've inserted in his food. 33) Producing heirs is a less reliable process than you might think. Most conceptions result in a miscarriage, and half of all births are female. 34) There's nothing about the assassination in that plan. No hairnet, and no linkage of the time to Joffrey's wedding. Instead Dontos just says he needs to arrange for a ship while Sansa needs a way to get out of the castle. The ship of course would actually be arranged by LF rather than Dontos. Dontos is there to gain Sansa's trust by posing as her "Florian" thankful for her saving his life. 35) Good to know you found it so easy for all the many assassinations at royal weddings you've rejiggered. 36) It's hardly marked to be as unique as Joffrey's goblet. And as for Tyrion's actual reaction to the pie in front of him: "he found them no more appetizing than the white ones fluttering about the hall. Sansa was not eating either". Good thing she wasn't hungry, or she might have eaten her husband's pie along with her own. Whereas it's entirely expected for the king to drink from his new chalice, and it would be considered something of an insult for him not to use it. Perhaps Olenna really is as dumb as a box of rocks and never considered whether Tyrion actually likes pigeon pie in the first place. 37) Margaery is part of the family of conspirators. They can easily arrange in advance for her not to drink anymore after an initial bit to make her look innocent. Whereas a hypothetical hungry Sansa has not been warned that Tyrion's pie would be poisoned. 38) The person READING your comment DOESN'T have to scroll up IF you quote properly! The style guide even says to quote the specific things you need to rather than necessarily using the whole comment. 39) What are you talking about? He DID give it to Dontos, who did as he was told and gave it to Sansa rather than selling it. 40) Then why the hell would they agree to this plan whose whole point, in your view, was to do JUST THAT!? 41) People paid attention to Margaery when Joffrey was poisoned. 42) It was very smart of her not to be present when Joffrey was humiliated at Ruby Ford, or to be related to Ned Stark. Really good decisions on her part. 43) No, he killed one mistress and her entire family after accusing them of the death of his infant son. This was after beheading the wetnurse he initially blamed. And his wife frequently cried "You're hurting me" in the bedroom. 44) That would be Tywin. 45) We never actually see him tell anyone other than Sansa that version of the story. As he notes, it's not considered polite to inquire into a man's bastards. 46) Claiming to be 9 would be ridiculous. Myranda even notes that "Alayne" has "ample" breasts for her stated age. 47) Only if Mace brings a dispute to be judged by the king. 48) If Lothor is an idiot, then he could very well do the things you claim would never be done while hawking. 49) The fact that so much of the circumference of the Reach is NOT a land border distinguishes it from the Riverlands. The United States also has borders on "all sides where there is land", but it's a lot better protected than the Low Countries like Belgium or the Netherlands. 50) It's officially not a monarchy or an empire. Its governed by people who are officially elected by the voters. North Korea is also a republic (a "people's democratic" one!) officially, and they've got a multi-generation dynasty in place. Russia has not had dynastic succession since the Romanovs. 51) No it isn't! The politics of marriage alliances depend on aristocratic houses being the basic units of politics! 52) You brought up Emmon Frey's marriage to Genna Lannister, and I'm pointing out it's not that important. As a member of House Frey, he is subject to the head of that House. 53) Beating Robb's sister doesn't prove anything! That's why his uncle, who is actually trying to preserve the regime Joffrey is destabilizing, puts a stop to it. Sansa even feels safer with Cersei of all people around to restrain Joffrey. 54) Correct. I reversed it but you got the meaning. How's this? Now you can track everything. 1) There are plenty of reasons to suspect Littlefinger was behind Mandon Moore. He came from the Vale and was recommended by Jon Arryn who never liked him, so that opens the door that Moore became a KG at Lysa's insistence. Moore tried to kill Tyrion for no explicable reason, and LF has been trying to kill Tyrion since the beginning of the story. 2) Not likely. Kings and queens rarely shared bedrooms. Even regular husbands and wives didn't do this if they could afford it. Sharing a bedroom only became common in the 20th century. 3) So again, you haven't actually seen anything in this app. So by definition it's hearsay. Everything else is jumping to conclusions. They may have (and most likely did) discussed it and decided they weren't going to waste a revelation of this magnitude on an app so they just went with the common misconception, just like they did with Jon's parentage apparently. This is the same faulty argument that has D&D correctly guessing Jon's Snow's mother, then assuming that the lovey-dovey romantic tale of RLJ must be true. It's bad logic. 4) Margaery is not a virgin. Of course they have to pretend that she is in order for her to marry the king, but nobody thinks she is because she was married to Renly for months and was with him on campaign when he died. And not everybody knows Renly is gay. So this was all for show. 5) Yes, the wine starts as red, then is purple on Joffrey's chin, then red again on the dais, then deep purple at the end. So how does deep purple wine go from red to purple to red again to purple? We can easily see how the thin runs of wine down Joffrey's pale white skin would look purple, but if the wine was deep purple all along then it would have been deep purple on the dais. It wasn't, so the only logical conclusion is that it wasn't poisoned at this point. Only Joffrey barfing into the cup just before he dropped it can explain the deep purple at the end. 6) Whoever said anything about Joffrey giving Tyrion his sword? He's going to draw it and threaten him with it. This is his new favorite toy, not the chalice. 7) Yes, but there is no way the LF could possibly know that whatever spat erupts from the jousting will involve the chalice, because, again, Joff's favorite toy is his new sword. And from there, the predictions get even sketchier. He has to know that Joff will make Tyrion cupbearer, that Tyrion will be handling the chalice just before the poisoning, that only Joff drinks and not Margaery, and that Joff places the chalice exactly where it needs to be so someone can drop the poison in, which as I've showed, could not have been Garlan. There are simply too many unknowns here to make this a viable plan, and if any one of these things does not happen, Margaery is dragged off to the bedding chamber. 8) Lol, nobody chokes on cinnamon powered dropped in wine. Nobody is just going to toss back a pinch of purple powder if someone hands it to them. 9) Obviously I'm talking about the ammonia you can buy in the store, in liquid form at room temperature. Under your theory, the strangler is dissolved in wine, which is 90 percent water. So your point is irrelevant. 10), 11), 12) The crystal does not need wine to dissolve. Case closed. It dissolves near instantly in wine, as will a crystal of sugar or salt, therefore it will dissolve more slowly in pie, as will sugar or salt. Case closed. 13) Yes, so why are you saying that these people are part of the conspiracy? 14) No, the careful reader should know that he makes no promises for the books because he still has two more to write and more secrets to reveal. Why would he say that at all if he is simply going to tell the readers what really happened? 15) You don't know what they discussed or what decisions they made. You just don't, so stop pretending that you do. Let's ask @Ran right now to weigh in here and tell us unequivocally that the poison was in the wine. The show is not the book because Martin still has more secrets to reveal in the book. To say that the show confirms the wine is like saying the show confirms there is no Lady Stoneheart. 16) Maybe, but you don't think a smart, careful woman would want to know how LF managed to set this all up, and why he was going about this long before J+M was even a possibility? For all she knows, he's just setting her up, since he was the one who lied to her in the first place. 17) It turned a relatively simple murder and extraction plan into a convoluted murder, framing, extraction that could have gone south at multiple different points. 18) Highborn females are ladies. Commoners are women. 19) Of course he's going to watch. He's only doing this because he's a mad fiend who likes to see people killed, right? The whole court would turn out for this. It's a spectacle, like a TbC. But nope, no mention of this, no word on noble knights being killed for Joffrey's amusement, no nothing. DIdn't happen. 20) Really? Killed a fawn and made Tommen cry, so that means they have to kill him? 21) The "business in the yard" was so Sansa would "answer for your brother's crimes", which Lancel then reads. The conversation with Bronn about taking Joff to Chataya's took place long before this, and nobody mentions it in relation to any sadism. You're getting your books and show confused again. 22) Sansa has not correctly figured out anything that's happened so far. She thought Joffrey loved her until he took Ned's head. She thinks Margaery or Olenna were responsible for her new gown, and she just can't wait to wear it while dreaming of "Willas, Willas, Willas." The only thing she's picked up on was Lyn Corbrey, long after the purple wedding. And since we have all the far more plausible reasons, that I've already explained, why Loras will not up and kill Joffrey in a fit of rage, this theory is DOA. But's it's the only thing that would make sense to Sansa, and LF is smart enough to know that. 23) All of your evidence comes down to Littlefinger says, Sansa says, Lady Olenna says. This is two known liars and a neophyte. Trust not in shadows, my friend. 24) The text with Sansa speaking at the Trident. Quote The older man in white spoke to Sansa gently. "Ofttimes Ser Ilyn frightens me as well, sweet lady. He has a fearsome aspect." "As well he should." The queen had descended from the wheelhouse. The spectators parted to make way for her. "If the wicked do not fear the King's Justice, you have put the wrong man in the office." Sansa finally found her words. "Then surely you have chosen the right one, Your Grace", she said, and a gale of laughter erupted all around them. Why did the audience laugh? This is how clueless she is about things around her, even when she is the one speaking. 25) Joffrey is in no way, shape or form and danger to Margaery. The text is crystal clear that he is absolutely infatuated with her. If anyone had any notion that Joff might hurt her and Loras would take action, they would certainly sit him down and explain the situation. They have plenty of time to get a few heirs to the throne and then get rid of Joffrey, even if he is not hurting Margy. There is no reason to take this extreme a step and possible ruining your chances of getting the Iron Throne just to circumvent a problem that doesn't even exist. 26) If Sansa goes down for the hairnet, Lady Olenna does too. Nobody is going to think that little Sansa, all by herself, with no money and no friends, was able to purchase this rare and expensive poison and commission a silver hairnet with a trick clasp just so she could parade the poison around the hall all night instead of just carrying it in a pocket. The only reason for doing this is so someone else could get the poison. So the first question they will ask her as the hot poker is coming toward her pretty little eye is, "Who was at your hair today, my lady?" and quick as you please, Sansa says Lady Olenna said the wind had been at my hair, but come to think of it, there was no wind that day, and isn't the purpose of a hairnet to keep my hair in place even if there is wind? Now it's Lady Olenna's turn to face the hot poker, or quite possibly the bloodshed that they are supposed to be so eager to prevent is now taking place across the city between the entire Lannister and Tyrell armies. And the very idea that someone is going to be looking at a dead king on the floor and then just happen to connect this to a tiny missing stone from a hairnet is ludicrous to begin with. 27) No, there is no reason to think he spent the entire time on the boat. He was mostly likely hiding out at one of his brothels, or any number of manses he owns in the city. Varys doesn't have spies all over the city, just the Red Keep. If you'll notice, Littlefinger is the one person who has completely outwitted Varys from the very beginning (the gods know what game Littlefinger is playing). LF can easily avoid detection by Varys. This is the very reason he had Dontos meet Sansa in the godswood and nowhere else. 28) You almost have it, but not quite. LF would not need to reveal that Tyrion was marrying Sansa. If he did that, Lady O would want to know how he came by this information when he's not even supposed to be in the city. So LO would already know that the Willas plan was scotched, but she doesn't know how or by whom, and that Sansa will now wed Tyrion. Then all LF has to do is point out, if she doesn't already realize, what a problem this marriage creates for House Tyrell . . . And only get down to the actual plot once he is sure they have a mutual understanding that it's in both of their best interests if Tyrion dies. And since killing Tyrion and leaving Sansa to be married to another Lannister is no good for the Tyrells, he would also tell her that he can get Sansa out of the city -- something that the Tyrells are unable to do. 29) How do you know she wasn't prepared? The deal was the LF would get Sansa, because he is the only one who can do it cleanly. 30) The wine dissolves in seconds in wine. It will dissolve more slowly in pie, but it will dissolve. And with luck, Tyrion might even crunch down on the remaining crystal, giving the illusion that he is merely choking on a bone. 31) The smudge is purple and it's in the empty setting that contained the crystal. Feel free to invent whatever implausible reasons as to why this is not dissolved crystal, but whatever they are it was most certainly not wine -- unless you contend that someone dumped wine on Sansa's head too but she just didn't notice. 32) If you're going to pull off an assassination plot, you shouldn't just hope that both your victims will start tussling over the giant chalice that you specifically introduced to make this whole plan more difficult, right down to exactly where it must be placed in order to be poisoned. Like I said, the crystal in the pie is easily disguised in the purple- brown under a layer of crust under a spoonful of cream. Meanwhile, the deep purple wine can be easily seen by the person drinking it. 33) Yes, and this would be just as true with Tommen as with Joffrey. There are no guarantees with anything in life, but at least with Joffrey they have a consummated marriage that night, which can't be undone except under the most extreme circumstances, and a high likelihood of getting an heir within five years and they can then put Margaery on the throne shortly after. Tommen is a guaranteed five-year wait, during which time the marriage, and the throne, can be taken away forever. 34) Well what do you think he had planned? Everybody just looks away while Dontos runs off with Sansa? There must be a diversion severe enough that even the little birds are distracted. 35) I'm not talking about any wedding except this one. Any target at the high table will be enough. 36) Everyone is expected to eat the pie, even if it's just one bite. "It's ill luck not to eat the pie." This is not just another course, this is the Wedding Pie, similar to our wedding cake. The bride and groom make a big show of cutting it, and then slices are served to all the guests so they can honor the couple with good luck. The only difference is that at this wedding, the big pie was filled with live birds, and that the "luck", for good or ill, will be retribution from the king should he get any reports that someone did not eat. It's not enough to ensure that Joffrey will drink the wine. He has to drink it, but not Margaery. At a time of toasts that is virtually impossible, even if Joffrey goes first. 37) So the poison is in the wine and the pie ceremony is underway. A toast is called (in this case, Lord Buckler's) and the chalice is brought to the happy couple. Even if Joffrey drinks first, which is unlikely but not complete impossible since he is king, Margaery still has to come up with some excuse for not drinking for maybe a half-minute, only to then stand there and watch Joffrey choke to death. After which, she'll just say "gee, good thing I experienced that catatonic episode just now or I would have been poisoned too. Tough luck Cersie." Sansa is not going to eat Tyrion's pie. She has her own pie. And everyone is so full right now that they are all going to eat just one bite to avoid the "ill luck." 38) Let's try it. Quote Just the hairnet, she doesn't need to know how it got there. I don't think LF wants her to pay attention to Dontos, since Dontos is going to steal Sansa away. Why on earth would you think that? Now tell me exactly what I'm referring to without scrolling up. See? Once you've hit the Quote button, your original comment does not show up in the reply box, just your response. 39) Yes, he had to trust Dontos for a few hours, and could easily track him down if he decided to cut and run right there. He cannot do this over months while Dontos is keeping the hairnet to himself. 40) Because Littlefinger can get her out. It's better for them if Littlefinger has her than Tywin. 41) Margaery is not Sansa. Margaery is talking to Joffrey as he starts choking, but even then we don't know who "people" were paying attention to once the confusion began. We do know that Tyrion sees her weeping just before Joffrey dies, but he also sees Tommen weeping, men pounding on Joffrey, people screaming and running, dogs barking . . . And he even looks for Sansa but doesn't think anything of it when he doesn't see her because of all the confusion. Nobody else is going to start wondering where Sansa Stark is the moment Joff loses it, and it only takes a few moments for her to slip out of the throneroom and into the relative safety of the godswood. 42) How on God's green earth do you imagine Margaery would be at the ruby ford, or be Ned's daughter? She is smart enough not to antagonize Joffrey at every chance, or belittle him or mock him, like Sansa does. 43) Aerys thought they had killed his son, not because he just felt like it. He started abusing Rhaella after 20+ years of marriage. Margaery has plenty of time to bear heirs before she has to worry about Joffrey -- and they will likely get rid of him long before. 44) Tywin will be off to war, leaving Jaime as acting regent. And Tywin or Jaime, do you think Tywin would be OK with Joffrey beating the tar out of the woman on which this whole alliance depends? Margaery is in absolutely no danger and there is no reason why anyone would think she was. 45) No, LF never mentions anything about his rise in Gulltown to Sansa, just that he was chief of customs. Tyrion is the one who finds out all of this when he begins investigating Petyr. 46) Yes, claiming to be nine would be ridiculous. But that's the oldest she could possibly be if she was sired when LF was customs chief in Gulltown -- a fact that LF undoubtedly knows but Sansa, naive Sansa, is utterly ignorant of. 47) Why? Joffrey just kills people at random for sport, right? 48) Even if Lothar does not know the first thing about hawking, his trainers and hunstmen and groomsmen do. This is the house that prides itself on its horses, dogs, birds and other forms of animal husbandry. Very unlikely that this is the first time Lothar has gone hawking, and impossible that he would not be getting even the most rudimentary instruction as to how it's done. This story is a blatant, obvious lie, one of many from the mouth of Lady Olenna. 49) Serious? You don't think the United States military is superior to Belgium or the Netherlands? The Reach shares a common border with the westerlands, stormlands, riverlands, crownlands and stormlands. They are ripe for invasion from literally any point along thousands of leagues of borderland. They also have the richest, most fertile land, and yet everyone is obsessed over the riverlands for all these millenia. Why? 50) Russia and North Korea are republics in the same way that Margaery is a virgin. 51) Power blocs are power blocs whether they are united by marriage or other means. In feudal times, the strongest ones were cemented in marriage because it combines different houses into one large family. This is how the Reach has done it for 10,000 years, even when the Andals came in. This is how Tywin is doing it now. 52) It is important. Genna is Tywin's sister. Lyonel is his nephew. There is a blood-bond between Casterly Rock and Riverrun now, a bond that can be relied upon whenever it becomes necessary. Again, this is how the Tyrells have done it. Look at the family tree. 53) It proves that Joffrey, and by extension all the Lannisters, are not afraid of losing. Joffrey took it too far, though, which is why Tyrion put an end to it. And if you look closely at what he said, it was not because kings shouldn't be mean to people, it was because "this woman is to be your queen." Hurting Sansa publicly like this only hurts Joffrey in the long run. And the unspoken word is that anything done to Sansa is returned to Jaime multiple times over. 54) Thought so. No probs. I get the wine and pie mixed up sometimes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Targaryeninkingslanding Posted April 2, 2021 Share Posted April 2, 2021 "Men of honor will do things for their children that they would never consider doing for themselves." -Petyr Baelish Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FictionIsntReal Posted April 2, 2021 Share Posted April 2, 2021 On 3/31/2021 at 10:29 PM, Lord Varys said: House Lannister as such, since power will now be longer and more directly in Tywin's hands, who can rule in Tommen's name eight more years I think the Tyrells & Lannisters both would be jostling with each other for control during Tommen's regency. Replacing Tywin with Cersei means that it's someone foolishly vicious rather than someone as pragmatic as Tywin (who was still making moves to check Tyrell power, hence wanting to offer Jaime instead of Tommen to the Tyrells). With Joffrey as king, his family & the Tyrells would have some common cause in checking his worst tendencies (though Cersei might admittedly have a different perception of what those might be). With the less independent and more pliable Tommen, the focus would be on controlling him. Littlefinger has nothing to do with the tragedy that really crippled Lannister power - Tywin's death Not directly, but Tywin's death does happen as a result of Tyrion being convicted of Joffrey's assassination. When Littlefinger took Sansa to the Vale he expected to lay low there for years or decades, even, as long as it would take for Tommen to grow up and Tywin to die or return to Casterly Rock. Was he actually depending on the Lannister regime being stable? It seems like he's fairly insulated. Littlefinger is the main suspect for the man behind the Mandon Moore attempt. Tyrion does try to investigate a connection... but he doesn't turn up anything. The connection is Moore's weird personality as well as his humble background in the Vale The Vale is a reason Tyrion thinks there might be a connection, but I don't see how Moore's personality is a connection to LF. LF's cutouts don't tend to be that inhuman. Just look at Dontos. neither Cersei nor Joffrey were behind it Cersei I agree with because we get her POV chapters. What are your reasons for confidence in Joffrey not being behind it? the only other option is that Moore for some reason decided all by himself to kill Tyrion, and that wouldn't be very satisfactoryHere's a version of that, which I find plausible. It's of a piece with Tyrion doing various things as Hand that he can't predict will come back and bite him in the ass. Hitting Joffrey during the riots, when Mandon abandoned Sansa to look after Joffrey and had to pull Tyrion off, is both part of the case there and gets cited as evidence at the trial. Tyrion is unhappy that he gets labeled a twisted demon monkey, but he's hardly acting to ingratiate himself with the population (whose homes he's destroying to better prepare to defend against Stannis), simply thinking that as a Lannister and acting Hand people will just obey his authority. And this mystery is going to be resolved in the future. Alright, for the fun of it, let's place some bets on whether LF gets revealed as the culprit! For what it's worth, the show implied it was Joffrey, although it also blamed him for Robert's bastards that Cersei had killed (and didn't imply he gave the Valyrian dagger to the catspaw). There is also no reason to expect that the only way Moore could murder Tyrion 'discreetly' is by helping Tyrion leading a charge - as the Hand and a member of queen's family Tyrion was surrounded by Kingsguard rather often Being surrounded by KG doesn't mean one has the opportunity to discretely murder you. Jaime only got his opportunity to kill Aerys when all the other KG were gone, the city was being sacked, and there wasn't anyone else in the throne room. And it's not like people didn't find out he was responsible. The KG are supposed to be bright shiny symbols of prestige close to the royal family, not sneaky cut-throats, like Osmund rather than Osney Kettleblack. Speaking of, Osmund is said to be no longer Tyrion or LF's asset once he joins the KG. I know you said LF wasn't using bribes to manipulate Mandon, but I wonder what other means he could use to maintain his control over him (even from a distance). if Tyrion hadn't led the charge Moore could have found some other opportunity at the same day - he could have thrown him off the city wall during an inspection The time to inspect part of the wall would be before the battle rather than during it, and there's no reason to think Mandon would be alone with Tyrion at the time. A chaotic situation where Tyrion is in close danger of being killed by the enemy makes for much more plausible deniability. On 4/1/2021 at 12:44 PM, John Suburbs said: How's this? Now you can track everything. That is at least not as bad as before. He came from the Vale and was recommended by Jon Arryn who never liked him, so that opens the door that Moore became a KG at Lysa's insistence Robert had to replace five KG when he became king, and we haven't heard of anyone Mandon replaced. LF was a nobody at the time who wouldn't have any control of a notable knight, and by his own admission LF lost control of another asset once he joined the KG (although I know you dismiss LF as lying to Sansa in that conversation. So by definition it's hearsay It's not me saying "I heard this". It's me linking to others discussing it, and citing Ran on that bit specifically being one of the things confirmed. they just went with the common misconception If they didn't want to spoil a "revelation" they could have just said he was poisoned without specifying whether it was the pie or wine! GRRM has plenty of practice not confirming questions he doesn't want to answer. just like they did with Jon's parentage apparently There is no "apparently". You simply imagined an entry about that, even though you admit to not knowing, and then tried to treat your imagination as evidence. This is the same faulty argument that has D&D correctly guessing Jon's Snow's mother, then assuming that the lovey-dovey romantic tale of RLJ must be true If GRRM confirmed to D&D who Jon Snow's mother is, then we can conclude Lyanna is his mother. The flashback around it is extraneous. If GRRM confirmed to Ran that it was the wine instead of the pie... then it was the wine instead of the pie. Perhaps you can argue that Joffrey wasn't the intended victim of the wine, I don't know. Or maybe someone else poisoned the wine. But the wine was confirmed. Margaery is not a virgin And you know this how? but nobody thinks she is because she was married to Renly for months and was with him on campaign when he died. And not everybody knows Renly is gay WE KNOW he was gay! GRRM himself has confirmed it. We can easily see how the thin runs of wine down Joffrey's pale white skin would look purple Don't you normally need to add blue to red in order to make purple? Only Joffrey barfing into the cup just before he dropped it can explain the deep purple at the end That was wine he failed to swallow because his throat was closed, rather than barfing. He's going to draw it and threaten him with it. This is his new favorite toy, not the chalice This is Joffrey's wedding, where he's having fun. He's planning on humiliating Tyrion. Threatening him would just result in Joffrey's sword getting taken away. Yes, but there is no way the LF could possibly know that whatever spat erupts from the jousting will involve the chalice, because, again, Joff's favorite toy is his new sword The conspirators planned to give him that giant chalice specifically so as to ensure he would use it. Widow's Wail was not part of their plans. that Tyrion will be handling the chalice just before the poisoning Tyrion is seated nearby as Joffrey's uncle, and the Tyrells can time the poisoning to fit. If Joffrey doesn't suggest making Tyrion as cupbearer, they could even suggest it themselves. that only Joff drinks and not Margaery Margaery is part of the conspiracy, of course she can ensure she doesn't drink after the poisoning. Lol, nobody chokes on cinnamon powered dropped in wine. Yes, my whole point is that the behavior is different depending on whether it's dissolved or not! The interaction is going to be through the surface area, and a solid crystal has a lower ratio of surface area to volume. Obviously I'm talking about the ammonia you can buy in the store, in liquid form at room temperature. Under your theory, the strangler is dissolved in wine, which is 90 percent water. So your point is irrelevant No, ammonia is a gas at room temperature. The strangler is a solid. Both can be dissolved in an aqueous solution (of which wine is an example). Your theory is that a solid crystal of the strangler was placed inside a piece of pie, which is not the sort of thing that we know dissolves it (whereas wine is). The crystal does not need wine to dissolve. Case closed Case closed? We haven't seen it happen! therefore it will dissolve more slowly in pie "More slowly" as in it will still retain most of its volume undissolved? as will sugar or salt. Case closed I've explained how sugar & salt dissolve in aqueous solutions. Both molecules are polar solutes, and water is a polar solvent. Tell me: is pigeon pie a polar solvent? Joffrey actually describes it as being dry, and he's coughing up flakes, so it doesn't actually seem to be as "moist" as you described. The pigeon is spiced, and capsacin is non-polar, which is why drinking water (or wine) doesn't actually help. Instead you're supposed to drink milk, because milk contains non-polar lipids. Yes, so why are you saying that these people are part of the conspiracy? I didn't say the alchemist or jeweler had to know everything. They can each be told a minimum by the conspirators to do just their part. No, the careful reader should know that he makes no promises for the books GRRM was assuming the "careful reader" had read A Storm of Swords, not the interview with EW which had yet to be released Why would he say that at all if he is simply going to tell the readers what really happened? Because he is in fact still writing and doesn't need to be bound by statements made outside the text. To say that the show confirms the wine is like saying the show confirms there is no Lady Stoneheart GRRM and D&D have both explicitly discussed Stoneheart's absence, with the latter saying they didn't want to bring back Michelle Fairley as a non-verbal zombie (like in one of Alfie Allen's prank scripts). Maybe, but you don't think a smart, careful woman would want to know how LF managed to set this all up, and why he was going about this long before J+M was even a possibility What does she know that he's "set up"? The hairnet only gets delivered after the wedding is arranged. It turned a relatively simple murder and extraction plan into a convoluted murder, framing, extraction that could have gone south at multiple different points. If you read #17 again you'll see what it was responding to. The plan to make Margaery queen still proceeded, it was not "scotched". Nor do you have any idea how Olenna was going to "extract" Sansa, since she certainly didn't do that while LF's flunky did. Of course he's going to watch. He's only doing this because he's a mad fiend who likes to see people killed, right? He doesn't need to watch the woman in the dungeon, and he can order people killed when they're far away from him. The whole court would turn out for this. It's a spectacle, like a TbC Did the whole court turn out to see Bronn kill Ser Balman Byrch? Really? Killed a fawn and made Tommen cry, so that means they have to kill him? It falsified your statement that Joffrey's sadism is limited to Sansa because she screwed up in some way that Margaery won't. He's just generally a sadistic little shit. The "business in the yard" was so Sansa would "answer for your brother's crimes" That's what Joffrey says, but Tyrion believes it was about "some pretty teats" because Joffrey doesn't strip naked others he's angry with. And, as I quoted, Tyrion talks to Varys about a brothel after that to "sweeten" the boy. Sansa has not correctly figured out anything that's happened so farThe only thing she's picked up on was Lyn Corbrey You've just contradicted yourself, and not noticed. You might dismiss that as pedantry, but it's a reason to avoid hyperbole in favor of strictly true statements. And it gets worse! Under your theory, Sansa's puzzlement at LF's lack of motive for killing Joffrey really DOES indicate there's more to the story than he's letting on... which is precisely the thing you're denying about her puzzlement regarding the Tyrell's indifference. But's it's the only thing that would make sense to Sansa, and LF is smart enough to know that Very lucky of him for him to have read her mind and deduced the hypothetical Sansa already thought of as an explanation for this complete accident he wasn't prepared for! In fact, neither Dontos nor LF express any surprise at the victim being Joffrey rather than Tyrion. All of your evidence comes down to Littlefinger says, Sansa says, Lady Olenna says. This is two known liars and a neophyte. Is GRRM a liar and/or neophyte? Why did the audience laugh? They didn't laught at her not knowing that Ilyn Payne was the king's justice. They laughed at the line about him being the right man, because it's a roundabout way of saying that Sansa finds him scary. If anyone had any notion that Joff might hurt her and Loras would take action, they would certainly sit him down and explain the situation Explain to Joffrey! He doesn't take good advice. If Sansa goes down for the hairnet, Lady Olenna does too Sansa didn't get the hairnet from Olenna. In fact she had no idea Olenna was part of the plot until LF told her. Nobody is going to think that little Sansa, all by herself, with no money and no friends, was able to purchase this rare and expensive poison Tyrion got blamed for that, because he had access to Pycelle's poisons. The only reason for doing this is so someone else could get the poison That's quite the deduction, and all you had to do was read the chapter where LF explained the missing stone, which the characters were unable to do. So the first question they will ask her as the hot poker is coming toward her pretty little eye is Sansa has every reason to want Joffrey dead herself, they're not going to be asking about her unknowing participation in a plot. Instead they would ask who her co-conspirators were. And the answer will be Dontos. Varys doesn't have spies all over the city, just the Red Keep Varys has spies in Essos, spies on Dragonstone (which went silent after Stannis locked it down), spies in a number of places which I would assume include the docks where LF departed from (recall how he prevented that ship captain from defecting to Stannis). He's a very talented spymaster not limited to merely one castle. This is the very reason he had Dontos meet Sansa in the godswood and nowhere else Has LF been hiding out in a godswood all this time? So LO would already know that the Willas plan was scotched How would she know that if, by your stipulation, LF didn't tell her Tyrion was marrying Sansa? Then all LF has to do is point out, if she doesn't already realize, what a problem this marriage creates for House Tyrell WHICH marriage? You just said she wouldn't know about Tyrion's! And why would LF think Tyrion's marriage would be such a problem for House Tyrell if he DIDN'T know it scotched the Willas betrothal? Winterfell has nothing to do with the Tyrells! And only get down to the actual plot once he is sure they have a mutual understanding that it's in both of their best interests if Tyrion dies Why does Olenna think it's in LF's best interests? She presumably hasn't been told that LF was behind poisoning Jon Arryn and blaming the Lannisters, or blaming Tyrion for the dagger, or dumping fishy ledgers on him after handing off the Master of Coin job. LF rises up by appearing useful to people higher in status than himself, rather than appearing to be a guy who goes around assassinating people for his own ends. And since killing Tyrion and leaving Sansa to be married to another Lannister is no good for the Tyrells, he would also tell her that he can get Sansa out of the city -- something that the Tyrells are unable to do Aren't you always saying she'd have to be dumb as a box of rocks to trust LF? This is a lot of trust to place in him! And it's not as if we hear later about the Tyrells being surprised LF didn't bring Sansa to Highgarden even though they knew he was going to sail to the Vale. The wine dissolves in seconds in wine. It will dissolve more slowly in pie, but it will dissolve That's awfully confident, but without showing any work on this chemistry problem. And with luck, Tyrion might even crunch down on the remaining crystal Crunching down on it with his teeth would probably mean spitting it out before it reached his throat, because he wasn't expecting that in the pigeon pie. Like I said, the crystal in the pie is easily disguised in the purple- brown Is the pie actually described as purple? under a spoonful of cream Cream is non-polar, so you actually SHOULD use it to dissolve capsacin, unlike a polar solution of wine. And is one of the Tyrells serving up the cream? Do they expect Tyrion not to notice while they stick their hand in the pie that just got placed in front of him in just such a way so as to hide the crystal? What is their plan if Tyrion doesn't want any pigeon pie!? Or even if he eats a small bite, what if it's not where the crystal has gotten to? What kind of Brownian motion is going to carry particles of Strangler past solid chunks of pigeon? Meanwhile, the deep purple wine can be easily seen by the person drinking it It just looks like wine, without any solid crystals in it. Yes, and this would be just as true with Tommen as with Joffrey They can accept Tommen as king even without any heirs for years. He's not going to cause any problems that might cause a civil war, and he's more pliable than Joffrey. during which time the marriage, and the throne, can be taken away forever Cersei didn't try to get the marriage annulled; she tried to frame Margaery for adultery. Well what do you think he had planned? Everybody just looks away while Dontos runs off with Sansa? There must be a diversion severe enough that even the little birds are distracted. LF doesn't care if the birds report back that Dontos took Sansa. He's just going to kill Dontos after Sansa is handed over. Any target at the high table will be enough Perhaps in your vast database of royal assassinations, but without that I would instead say we know who would maximize the attention (and thus distraction): the newly-married couple (and since one of them is the king, mostly him). retribution from the king should he get any reports that someone did not eat Even I don't see Joffrey punishing, say, Olenna if she declines. In fact, we don't see anyone eat any other than Joffrey. Even if Joffrey drinks first, which is unlikely but not complete impossible since he is king Why is it "unlikely"? He's happy to drink more. Margaery still has to come up with some excuse for not drinking for maybe a half-minute Half a minute? Joffrey will start coughing, and she can just start acting concerned for him. And everyone is so full right now Tyrion guessed there were to be 20-30 more dishes until the bedding ceremony. And Sansa LOVES lemons, which is what's used in the cream for the pie. If you wanted to poison Sansa, putting it in some lemon cream might be the best way to do it. I'd recommend using a non-polar solute though. Now tell me exactly what I'm referring to Why would I think Olenna doesn't have to know about Dontos. The quote is right above the response, so when I read the response I also saw the quote above it. Just as everyone else reading your comment can see. Once you've hit the Quote button, your original comment does not show up in the reply box, just your response Otherwise quotes could get very heavily nested. You can read the original comment rather than just clicking quote and waiting to read then. If you have a dual-monitor you could scroll down both at the same time. Otherwise you could try a separate tab or a text editor. He cannot do this over months while Dontos is keeping the hairnet to himself Why should Dontos keep it for months? He's not supposed to be using it himself, and it's odd for a man to have that hairnet in his possession. Dontos is only given the hairnet when LF wants to relay it to Sansa without any known connection to himself. Giving Sansa the hairnet and promising it will help her escape is also a way of gaining her trust. Because Littlefinger can get her out. It's better for them if Littlefinger has her than Tywin. Tywin COULD get her out, but that wouldn't do Olenna any good because Tywin would still have her in his possession. LF taking possession of her would be a far cry from having her in Highgarden... particularly since she knows LF is heading in the opposite direction. Nobody else is going to start wondering where Sansa Stark is the moment Joff loses it Precisely, Joff is already the center of attention and people looking at him are not looking at Sansa. Sansa is seated right next to Tyrion, so people staring at his spot would be more likely to notice her slip away. Since Sansa didn't want to marry Tyrion, she might also be a suspect for that! She is smart enough not to antagonize Joffrey at every chance, or belittle him or mock him, like Sansa does. Sansa wasn't mocking Joffrey at Ruby Ford. I don't know what Margaery would have done and I don't know how smart she is. None of our POVs know her that well. He started abusing Rhaella after 20+ years of marriage He got crazier with age. Joffrey was disturbing people earlier than Aerys. Tywin will be off to war With who? Tywin beat Stannis at the Blackwater, and then got Robb's allies to betray him via some ravens. Why does he need to go on campaign AFTER Robb is killed? do you think Tywin would be OK with Joffrey beating the tar out of the woman on which this whole alliance depends Joffrey isn't going to simply limit himself to whatever Tywin is ok with. No, LF never mentions anything about his rise in Gulltown to Sansa I didn't say he talked about his rise, the story he tells her is about Alayne's mother being the daughter of a Gulltown merchant. To everyone else she's just a bastard whose origins aren't to be interrogated. But that's the oldest she could possibly be if she was sired when LF was customs chief in Gulltown A story he hasn't told anyone. Why? Joffrey just kills people at random for sport, right? In his formal rule as judge is where Joffrey kills the most people, since they're already at the mercy of the king. The regime would thus not permit Mace Tyrell to be placed in that position unless the Lannisters were planning on purging his House. Outside of that Joffrey tends to exercise his sadism in milder ways by having Sansa stripped/beatened/threatened and bullying Tommen. Also, humiliating Tyrion at the wedding. Perhaps you've got an explanation for how Joffrey was actually indulging in stategic calculus with that rather than getting his jollies from someone else's misfortune. This is the house that prides itself on its horses, dogs, birds and other forms of animal husbandry Garlan does, because he's disabled and can't act as a knight anymore. You don't think the United States military is superior to Belgium or the Netherlands It is, but there's a question of how it got that way. The New World was technologically behind Europe and devastated by disease, so the early colonists were not surrounded by military peers. Instead the frontier was theirs for the taking, with most of the hemisphere free of other Europeans. Britain the "happy isle" is separated by the channel from continental powers, and America is separated by the Pacific & Atlantic from the Old World. I could also point to Japan as an example of a country that benefited from its status as an island and was thus able to avoid external threats and rise to world power status. The Netherlands was a notable country for a while (unlike Belgium, it was a major seafaring power), but it's not as lucky as the UK. The Reach shares a common border with the westerlands, stormlands, riverlands, crownlands and stormlands You double-counted the Stormlands. The Riverlands, by contrast, also has a border with the Vale and the North (which it can't easy penetrate if it wants to fight back). A much lower percentage of its border consists of coastline. You can sail all the way from the northwest border of the Reach to the southeast border without leaving the Reach's coastal waters. Russia and North Korea are republics in the same way that Margaery is a virgin. When was the last time Russia experienced dynastic succession? Because that's the relevant bit to what we're talking about with marriage alliances. Power blocs are power blocs whether they are united by marriage or other means Marriage alliances under dynastic succession are fundamentally different from "other means". Succession flows from father to son, within the family, and marriage causes both houses to have a shared interest in the offspring based on pre-political principles of kin selection. One republic can betray another much more easily. If it's a republic with a competitive democracy, the next leader elected might have no interest in the foreign policy agenda of the prior leader! But even without that, you can get things like Molotov Ribbentrop -> Operation Barbarossa. Genna is Tywin's sister But her husband is Emmon Frey, who is a son of Walder Frey's second wife. It's precisely because it wasn't a very useful match that Tywin objected when Tytos arranged it! It proves that Joffrey, and by extension all the Lannisters, are not afraid of losing It proves Joffrey is an idiot. The other Lannisters were afraid of the large number of enemies arrayed against them. Joffrey took it too far, though, which is why Tyrion put an end to it Tyrion didn't say the initial beatings were ok, but this wasn't. He stopped it as soon as he arrived and witnessed any of it. it was because "this woman is to be your queen." Hurting Sansa publicly like this only hurts Joffrey in the long run. And the unspoken word is that anything done to Sansa is returned to Jaime multiple times over. YES! Tyrion knows this, while Joffrey doesn't. Because he's a vicious idiot who thinks he can do whatever he likes without consequences. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John Suburbs Posted April 5, 2021 Share Posted April 5, 2021 On 4/2/2021 at 7:50 PM, FictionIsntReal said: 1) Robert had to replace five KG when he became king, and we haven't heard of anyone Mandon replaced. LF was a nobody at the time who wouldn't have any control of a notable knight, and by his own admission LF lost control of another asset once he joined the KG (although I know you dismiss LF as lying to Sansa in that conversation. 2)It's not me saying "I heard this". It's me linking to others discussing it, and citing Ran on that bit specifically being one of the things confirmed. 3)If they didn't want to spoil a "revelation" they could have just said he was poisoned without specifying whether it was the pie or wine! GRRM has plenty of practice not confirming questions he doesn't want to answer. 4)There is no "apparently". You simply imagined an entry about that, even though you admit to not knowing, and then tried to treat your imagination as evidence. 5)If GRRM confirmed to D&D who Jon Snow's mother is, then we can conclude Lyanna is his mother. The flashback around it is extraneous. If GRRM confirmed to Ran that it was the wine instead of the pie... then it was the wine instead of the pie. Perhaps you can argue that Joffrey wasn't the intended victim of the wine, I don't know. Or maybe someone else poisoned the wine. But the wine was confirmed. 6)And you know this how? 7)WE KNOW he was gay! GRRM himself has confirmed it. 8)Don't you normally need to add blue to red in order to make purple? 9)That was wine he failed to swallow because his throat was closed, rather than barfing. 10) This is Joffrey's wedding, where he's having fun. He's planning on humiliating Tyrion. Threatening him would just result in Joffrey's sword getting taken away. 11) The conspirators planned to give him that giant chalice specifically so as to ensure he would use it. Widow's Wail was not part of their plans. 12) Tyrion is seated nearby as Joffrey's uncle, and the Tyrells can time the poisoning to fit. If Joffrey doesn't suggest making Tyrion as cupbearer, they could even suggest it themselves. 13) Margaery is part of the conspiracy, of course she can ensure she doesn't drink after the poisoning. 14)Yes, my whole point is that the behavior is different depending on whether it's dissolved or not! The interaction is going to be through the surface area, and a solid crystal has a lower ratio of surface area to volume. 15) No, ammonia is a gas at room temperature. The strangler is a solid. Both can be dissolved in an aqueous solution (of which wine is an example). Your theory is that a solid crystal of the strangler was placed inside a piece of pie, which is not the sort of thing that we know dissolves it (whereas wine is). 16) Case closed? We haven't seen it happen! 17) "More slowly" as in it will still retain most of its volume undissolved? 18) I've explained how sugar & salt dissolve in aqueous solutions. Both molecules are polar solutes, and water is a polar solvent. Tell me: is pigeon pie a polar solvent? Joffrey actually describes it as being dry, and he's coughing up flakes, so it doesn't actually seem to be as "moist" as you described. The pigeon is spiced, and capsacin is non-polar, which is why drinking water (or wine) doesn't actually help. Instead you're supposed to drink milk, because milk contains non-polar lipids. 19) I didn't say the alchemist or jeweler had to know everything. They can each be told a minimum by the conspirators to do just their part. 20)GRRM was assuming the "careful reader" had read A Storm of Swords, not the interview with EW which had yet to be released 21) Because he is in fact still writing and doesn't need to be bound by statements made outside the text. 22) GRRM and D&D have both explicitly discussed Stoneheart's absence, with the latter saying they didn't want to bring back Michelle Fairley as a non-verbal zombie (like in one of Alfie Allen's prank scripts). 23) What does she know that he's "set up"? The hairnet only gets delivered after the wedding is arranged. 24) If you read #17 again you'll see what it was responding to. The plan to make Margaery queen still proceeded, it was not "scotched". Nor do you have any idea how Olenna was going to "extract" Sansa, since she certainly didn't do that while LF's flunky did. 25) He doesn't need to watch the woman in the dungeon, and he can order people killed when they're far away from him. 26) Did the whole court turn out to see Bronn kill Ser Balman Byrch? 27) It falsified your statement that Joffrey's sadism is limited to Sansa because she screwed up in some way that Margaery won't. He's just generally a sadistic little shit. 28) That's what Joffrey says, but Tyrion believes it was about "some pretty teats" because Joffrey doesn't strip naked others he's angry with. And, as I quoted, Tyrion talks to Varys about a brothel after that to "sweeten" the boy. 29) You've just contradicted yourself, and not noticed. You might dismiss that as pedantry, but it's a reason to avoid hyperbole in favor of strictly true statements. And it gets worse! Under your theory, Sansa's puzzlement at LF's lack of motive for killing Joffrey really DOES indicate there's more to the story than he's letting on... which is precisely the thing you're denying about her puzzlement regarding the Tyrell's indifference. 30) Very lucky of him for him to have read her mind and deduced the hypothetical Sansa already thought of as an explanation for this complete accident he wasn't prepared for! In fact, neither Dontos nor LF express any surprise at the victim being Joffrey rather than Tyrion. 31) Is GRRM a liar and/or neophyte? 32) They didn't laught at her not knowing that Ilyn Payne was the king's justice. They laughed at the line about him being the right man, because it's a roundabout way of saying that Sansa finds him scary. 33) Explain to Joffrey! He doesn't take good advice. 34) Sansa didn't get the hairnet from Olenna. In fact she had no idea Olenna was part of the plot until LF told her. 35) Tyrion got blamed for that, because he had access to Pycelle's poisons. 36) That's quite the deduction, and all you had to do was read the chapter where LF explained the missing stone, which the characters were unable to do. 37) Sansa has every reason to want Joffrey dead herself, they're not going to be asking about her unknowing participation in a plot. Instead they would ask who her co-conspirators were. And the answer will be Dontos. 38) Varys has spies in Essos, spies on Dragonstone (which went silent after Stannis locked it down), spies in a number of places which I would assume include the docks where LF departed from (recall how he prevented that ship captain from defecting to Stannis). He's a very talented spymaster not limited to merely one castle. 39) Has LF been hiding out in a godswood all this time? 40) How would she know that if, by your stipulation, LF didn't tell her Tyrion was marrying Sansa? 41) WHICH marriage? You just said she wouldn't know about Tyrion's! And why would LF think Tyrion's marriage would be such a problem for House Tyrell if he DIDN'T know it scotched the Willas betrothal? Winterfell has nothing to do with the Tyrells! 42) Why does Olenna think it's in LF's best interests? She presumably hasn't been told that LF was behind poisoning Jon Arryn and blaming the Lannisters, or blaming Tyrion for the dagger, or dumping fishy ledgers on him after handing off the Master of Coin job. LF rises up by appearing useful to people higher in status than himself, rather than appearing to be a guy who goes around assassinating people for his own ends. 43) Aren't you always saying she'd have to be dumb as a box of rocks to trust LF? This is a lot of trust to place in him! And it's not as if we hear later about the Tyrells being surprised LF didn't bring Sansa to Highgarden even though they knew he was going to sail to the Vale. 44) That's awfully confident, but without showing any work on this chemistry problem. 45) Crunching down on it with his teeth would probably mean spitting it out before it reached his throat, because he wasn't expecting that in the pigeon pie. 46) Is the pie actually described as purple? 47) Cream is non-polar, so you actually SHOULD use it to dissolve capsacin, unlike a polar solution of wine. And is one of the Tyrells serving up the cream? Do they expect Tyrion not to notice while they stick their hand in the pie that just got placed in front of him in just such a way so as to hide the crystal? What is their plan if Tyrion doesn't want any pigeon pie!? Or even if he eats a small bite, what if it's not where the crystal has gotten to? What kind of Brownian motion is going to carry particles of Strangler past solid chunks of pigeon? 48) It just looks like wine, without any solid crystals in it. 49) They can accept Tommen as king even without any heirs for years. He's not going to cause any problems that might cause a civil war, and he's more pliable than Joffrey. 50) Cersei didn't try to get the marriage annulled; she tried to frame Margaery for adultery. 51) LF doesn't care if the birds report back that Dontos took Sansa. He's just going to kill Dontos after Sansa is handed over. 52) Perhaps in your vast database of royal assassinations, but without that I would instead say we know who would maximize the attention (and thus distraction): the newly-married couple (and since one of them is the king, mostly him). 53) Even I don't see Joffrey punishing, say, Olenna if she declines. In fact, we don't see anyone eat any other than Joffrey. 54) Why is it "unlikely"? He's happy to drink more. 55) Half a minute? Joffrey will start coughing, and she can just start acting concerned for him. 56) Tyrion guessed there were to be 20-30 more dishes until the bedding ceremony. And Sansa LOVES lemons, which is what's used in the cream for the pie. If you wanted to poison Sansa, putting it in some lemon cream might be the best way to do it. I'd recommend using a non-polar solute though. 57) Why would I think Olenna doesn't have to know about Dontos. The quote is right above the response, so when I read the response I also saw the quote above it. Just as everyone else reading your comment can see. 58) Otherwise quotes could get very heavily nested. You can read the original comment rather than just clicking quote and waiting to read then. If you have a dual-monitor you could scroll down both at the same time. Otherwise you could try a separate tab or a text editor. 59) Why should Dontos keep it for months? He's not supposed to be using it himself, and it's odd for a man to have that hairnet in his possession. Dontos is only given the hairnet when LF wants to relay it to Sansa without any known connection to himself. Giving Sansa the hairnet and promising it will help her escape is also a way of gaining her trust. 60) Tywin COULD get her out, but that wouldn't do Olenna any good because Tywin would still have her in his possession. LF taking possession of her would be a far cry from having her in Highgarden... particularly since she knows LF is heading in the opposite direction. 61) Precisely, Joff is already the center of attention and people looking at him are not looking at Sansa. Sansa is seated right next to Tyrion, so people staring at his spot would be more likely to notice her slip away. Since Sansa didn't want to marry Tyrion, she might also be a suspect for that! 62) Sansa wasn't mocking Joffrey at Ruby Ford. I don't know what Margaery would have done and I don't know how smart she is. None of our POVs know her that well. 63) He got crazier with age. Joffrey was disturbing people earlier than Aerys. 64) With who? Tywin beat Stannis at the Blackwater, and then got Robb's allies to betray him via some ravens. Why does he need to go on campaign AFTER Robb is killed? 65) Joffrey isn't going to simply limit himself to whatever Tywin is ok with. 66) I didn't say he talked about his rise, the story he tells her is about Alayne's mother being the daughter of a Gulltown merchant. To everyone else she's just a bastard whose origins aren't to be interrogated. 67) A story he hasn't told anyone. 68) In his formal rule as judge is where Joffrey kills the most people, since they're already at the mercy of the king. The regime would thus not permit Mace Tyrell to be placed in that position unless the Lannisters were planning on purging his House. Outside of that Joffrey tends to exercise his sadism in milder ways by having Sansa stripped/beatened/threatened and bullying Tommen. Also, humiliating Tyrion at the wedding. Perhaps you've got an explanation for how Joffrey was actually indulging in stategic calculus with that rather than getting his jollies from someone else's misfortune. 69) Garlan does, because he's disabled and can't act as a knight anymore. 70) It is, but there's a question of how it got that way. The New World was technologically behind Europe and devastated by disease, so the early colonists were not surrounded by military peers. Instead the frontier was theirs for the taking, with most of the hemisphere free of other Europeans. Britain the "happy isle" is separated by the channel from continental powers, and America is separated by the Pacific & Atlantic from the Old World. I could also point to Japan as an example of a country that benefited from its status as an island and was thus able to avoid external threats and rise to world power status. The Netherlands was a notable country for a while (unlike Belgium, it was a major seafaring power), but it's not as lucky as the UK. 71) You double-counted the Stormlands. The Riverlands, by contrast, also has a border with the Vale and the North (which it can't easy penetrate if it wants to fight back). A much lower percentage of its border consists of coastline. You can sail all the way from the northwest border of the Reach to the southeast border without leaving the Reach's coastal waters. 72) When was the last time Russia experienced dynastic succession? Because that's the relevant bit to what we're talking about with marriage alliances. 73) Marriage alliances under dynastic succession are fundamentally different from "other means". Succession flows from father to son, within the family, and marriage causes both houses to have a shared interest in the offspring based on pre-political principles of kin selection. One republic can betray another much more easily. If it's a republic with a competitive democracy, the next leader elected might have no interest in the foreign policy agenda of the prior leader! But even without that, you can get things like Molotov Ribbentrop -> Operation Barbarossa. 74) But her husband is Emmon Frey, who is a son of Walder Frey's second wife. It's precisely because it wasn't a very useful match that Tywin objected when Tytos arranged it! 75) It proves Joffrey is an idiot. The other Lannisters were afraid of the large number of enemies arrayed against them. 76) Tyrion didn't say the initial beatings were ok, but this wasn't. He stopped it as soon as he arrived and witnessed any of it. 77) YES! Tyrion knows this, while Joffrey doesn't. Because he's a vicious idiot who thinks he can do whatever he likes without consequences. 1) We don't know when Mandon was appointed, so he might not have been one of the five originals. Either way, Lysa was madly in love with Petyr way back then, and we have not accounting of his whereabouts either. So it is more than possible that he orchestrated Moor's appointment. Why else would Arryn recommend this creepy corpse-like guy that that he dislikes? 2) So again, hearsay. And nothing has been "confirmed.." One person saying they discussed something and then a decision was made does not mean you know why they made their decision. This is in no way, shape or form confirmation of the wine, anymore than the wiki saying Jon Snow is Ned's bastard is confirmation of that. 3) If they didn't want to spoil a revelation they would just say it was the wine because that is what everyone in-story, even Tyrion, believes, just like everyone believes N=J. 4) On the wiki, Jon is Ned's bastard. So "apparently" that's what they went with. 5) Again, you are jumping to wild conclusions. D&D confirmed they guessed Jon's mother correctly, but nowhere does anyone say that was Lyanna. So that may be a good assumption, but it is an assumption nonetheless. And nowhere in any of this does anyone mention a word about Rhaegar or Jon's father. So the conclusion that most people have made, that RLJ is true, just because that is what we saw in the show is illogical for two reasons: no one says the correct quess was Lyanna, and no one says that whatever answer they gave was what they used in the show. Now you're doing the same thing here. They discussed wine v pie, and then the app says wine. That's a huge leap in logic because discussing is not deciding, therefore stating is not confirming. 6) Because of her characterization in the books and the fact that she's was married for a good three months or more. Even gay men can still father children on women. She is not a virgin. 7) Yes, we know it, but few people in-story know it. Nobody thinks Margaery is a virgin, but they go along with the whole charade because that's what they need to do if they want to be part of this new order. 8) A thin sheen of red wine running translucent over Joffrey's pale white skin illuminated by orange torchlight reflected off a golden chalice. You bet that will look purple. Try it yourself (assuming you have white skin, of course). 9) His throat was not completely closed by then. He was still able to croak out a few more words. But it was closed enough that there was likely still pie in the mix. 10) Really? Someone is going to disarm the king because he threatened the imp uncle that everyone despises? Nonsense. The sword is Joffrey's favorite new toy, not the chalice. 11) Widow's Wail should have been part of the plan. Like I've already proven, the chalice not only complicates the poisoning the the nth degree, it also puts Margaery in danger. 12) Tyrion was not nearby: Quote He and Sansa had been seated far to the king's right, beside Ser Garlan and his wife, Lady Leonette. A dozen others sat closer to Joffrey, which a pricklier man might have taken for a slight . . . The Tyrells cannot time the poisoning. The only time there is a one-in-a-million chance to drop the poison into the giant golden chalice that they've provided is when all eyes are expected to be on the doves rising from the pie. At any other time, chances are high that one of the thousands of guests would spot this move, particularly since the chalice is to play such a large role in the Joff-Tyrion spat. And now they are supposed to recommend Tyrion as cup-bearer, even if the chalice is never brought into this argument, only to then have the king drop dead a few moments later? 13) If Margaery is part of the conspiracy, why is she specifically calling Joffrey back to her side to share a toast with wine that she knows is poisoned? And how is she supposed to not drink at this point if she is the one who suggested this? 14) Enough of the crystal will have dissolved in the pie to kill Tyrion. It's been sitting in the hot, moist filling for a half-minute or more. It doesn't take much to do the trick, as Cressen showed. 15) Yes, I know ammonia is a gas. I was obviously talking about the liquid ammonia you buy in the store, at room temperature. Wine is 90 percent water, and moist pie will also contain water in small amounts. If it didn't it would be dry as a cracker. And the mere fact that Joffrey notices the pie is "a bit dry, though" is further evidence that the crystal was inside absorbing the available water. 16) Yes we have. In the empty setting in the hairnet: Quote The web of spun silver hung from her fingers, the fine metal glimmering softly, the stones black in the moonlight. Black amethysts from Assai. One of them was missing. Sansa lifted the net for a closer look. There was a dark smudge in the silver socket where the stone had fallen out. Real gems do not leave smudges behind. And I hope you'll agree that there is no way anyone could dump wine on Sansa head with her not knowing it. So the only logical explanation is that the smudge was from the crystal dissolving ever so slight from the heat and sweat and oils of Sansa's head and hair. 17) Yes, it will retain most of its volume undissolved. But all of this is moot because it is extremely unlikely that Tyrion will not drink wine with his pie anyway, particularly since its a bit dry. And the fact that Joffrey did drink wine, because it's a bit dry, means there was wine in his mouth just before he started choking, and this lines up perfectly with the way Cressen started choking a few seconds after he sent the poison down his throat. So regardless of whether it can only dissolve in wine or not, the text shows that the physical reactions to the poison are virtually identical, but only if it was in Joffrey's pie, not wine. 18) What do you think accounts for the moistness of pigeon pie filling? Sand? It has water in it, much less than wine to be sure, but water nonetheless. Enough to get the poison into the throat on the way down. There was a Targaryen prince who choked on pigeon pie too. 19) OK, but you said the conspirators made the chalice and poison, or something like that. 20) Yes, right after he said he makes no promises for the books. 21) Really? And yet he is bound by things posted in the app? 22) OK, that is only one way in which the show differs from the book. We also don't have Asha/Yara sailing to rescue Theon, nor a young boy at Castle Black called Ollie, nor Jaqen Hgar (or anyone with that face) at the HoBaw, nor Victarion, the Dusky Woman, Moquorro, nor any of dozens of other elements in the book. You can't use the show to prove something in the book. They are too radically different. 23) She knows that he's made contact with Sansa through a go-between. Don't you think that when he says we have to give this to Sansa, she's going to want to know how? 24) If one single thing in this "plan" does not happen, then it is a complete bust. If Tyrion is not in the room when the joust happens, if Joffrey decides on some other retribution measure than the chalice, if Tyrion is not made cup-bearer, if Joffrey placed the chalice a foot to the left or to the right, if Joffrey decides to forget about his imp uncle when he sees beautiful doe-eyed Margaery calling for a toast -- if any one of these things does not happen, then the wine cannot be poisoned, Tyrion cannot be framed and Margaery is dragged off to the wedding chamber, which for some reason makes people thing that she will never be eligible for marriage again. 25) What are you talking about. He's not watching the woman in the dungeon, he's going to watch the blood sport that he has commanded, and he's going to make Sansa watch it too, and all the court will be expected to attend. But nobody ever mentions any of this because it never happened. Knights are not going to put their lives on the line for something stupid like a mill or a dam. They work it out, which is actually pretty clever of Joffrey because no one is going to bother him with these piddling little problems again. 26) That event happened at Stokeworth, not the Red Keep. But yes, all of Stokeworth was probably watching. 27) Um, no, killing fawns or taunting your little brother is not sadistic, not in this culture. Animals are killed every day, right out in the open. Nobody has any reason to think Margaery is in danger because years ago Joffrey killed a fawn. Margaery is not an idiot like Sansa. We have seen how easily she can manipulate Joffrey. She is not oing to antagonize him like Sansa and virtually everyone else does. She is too smart for that, and she has a job to do. 28) It doesn't matter what Tyrion thinks. All that matters is what Joffrey says And in this instance he is not doing anything that any other lord or king would do to a hostage whose lord had rebelled. There is not reason to think Margaery will be treated like Sansa any more than Mace will be executed like Ned. I didn't see you post any quote between Tyrion and Varys about sending Joff to a brother, and I still don't. Tyrion talked about the brothel with Bronn. 29) It is not a contradiction to say that, way late in the story, she picks up on one secret. Up to and through the wedding, she has been completely clueless, about everything. Sansa is never puzzled about LF's motive for killing Joffrey, even though she should be because it is utterly ridiculous. Nobody even knows LF was anywhere near KL when Joffrey died, so how can anyone possible be confused by his intentions when no one, not even Varys, knows he was involved? But this story flies with Sansa because she is a neophyte. She is puzzled by the Tyrells, which is all that is needed to get her not to trust them. But instead, LF throws a big wrench into his own plans by ratting out the Willas plot. Why oh why is everyone involved in this little scheme always doing the exact opposite thing they should be doing if they want to kill Joff, frame Tyrion and get Sansa? 30) It's not mind-reading. It's understanding what excuse a novice like Sansa would believe. All Dontos needs to know is to get the hairnet to Sansa and guide her down the steps when the screaming starts. He doesn't need to know the victim. The conversation between Sansa and LF takes place hours after the murder -- literally it is dawn the next day. Do you honestly think LF just sat out on his boat all night long and just waited for Sansa to come rowing out of the mist? That there is absolutely no chance that this thing could go tits up, that Lady O confessed to all in the black cells and the royal navy is dispatched to round him up? He had plenty of time to wait just offshore, or even at the docks, and get reports every 15 minutes as to what was happening in the keep. Then he sails out to the rendezvous with Sansa. 31) GRRM has never said the poison was in the wine, just like he's never said Lyanna is Jon's mother. What he has done is layer the truth underneath large amounts of subterfuge so that when he does reveal it in the text it catches the reader by complete surprise. This is what makes for good writing and an enjoyable reading experience. 32) Close, but not quite. They laughed because Cersei says "if the wicked don't fear the King's Justice, then you've put the wrong man in office," and Sansa says "then you've certainly chosen the right man." Sansa fears the KJ, and the wicked must fear the KJ, and Sansa fears the KJ, so Sansa is unwittingly calling herself one of the wicked, which everyone else picks up on but she remains utterly clueless. 33) He does, if you do it right. Margaery does it right, as she demonstrated with the sword. Littlefinger does it right to, as with the dwarf jousts. So the two people who know how to manipulate him are the two who want to kill him because they can't control him. Again, more contradictions between the facts and the wine. 34) Sigh, I really wish you would read my comments first so that you won't ask questions like this that are completely beside the point. Of course Sansa didn't get the hairnet from Olenna, but Olenna was the one who fussed with the hairnet just before the wedding. As I said, no one is going to believe that little Sansa somehow acquired the poison and hairnet just so she could parade the poison around all evening. The only explanation is that it was intended for someone else to get it. And since Olenna was the only one who touched it that day (besides Shae), and her reasons for touching it are false and contradictory, Olenna goes down if Sansa goes down due to the hairnet. 35) Yes, but your theory is that the hairnet will implicate Sansa. So even if somehow someone blames Tyrion, they are still going to wonder why they would bother with the hairnet and all considering Tyrion is too short to reach it anyway. So, "who was at your hair today my lady?" Lady Olenna. There is no way she would want Sansa implicated by the hairnet because that drags her into it. 36) It's not my deduction, it's the deduction of any interrogator with half a brain. What other possible reason could there be for wearing a poison on your head? 37) Lots of people have reasons to want Joffrey dead. Yes, if Sansa gets caught, she will give up Dontos. But if she gets caught specifically due to the hairnet, then Lady O is in jeopardy. So Lady O is not going to enter a plot where Sansa might get implicated because of the hairnet that Lady O touched just before the murder. But she will enter a plot in which Sansa and the hairnet get away cleanly so that even when suspicion does fall on Sansa, it has nothing to do with the hairnet, and by extension, Lady Olenna. 38) Yes, Varys is very talented. You know who is more talented? Littlefinger, since "the gods know what game Littlefinger is playing." Does Varys have spies in Petyr's brothels? In every manse, house or winesink in the city? LF has demonstrated his ability to hide his actions from Varys over and over again. 39) No. He's somewhere close though. He most certainly is not in the Vale wooing Lysa Arryn like he's supposed to be. 40, 41) The marriage between Tyrion and Sansa, you know, the one that puts control of the north in Tywin's hands? Of course Lady Olenna knows about it by the time LF approaches her with the poisoning plan. She was at the reception, remember? What on earth makes you think that the only way Lady O could know anything is if Littlefinger tells her? 42) Because Lady Olenna is savvy enough to know that Petyr is playing fast and loose with the crown's gold and the Tyrion is MoC is a threat to that. And if she doesn't know then LF will tell her. Lady Olenna knows a hustler when she sees one. I don't understand where anyone would get the idea that she really is the daft old grandma that pretends to be. 43) She would only be dumb to trust him if he is telling her that he will help kill Joffrey after he lied about Joff in the first place and then never even came clean with that lie. With Tyrion as the target, none of this is a problem. He never lied about Tyrion, and the lie he told about Joffrey (which she knew was a lie because Lady O is no fool and already knows all about Joffrey) is understandable because he has to lie, since he is representing the crown in the negotiation. Again, all the conflicts arise when you try to put the square peg of the facts into the round hole of the wine. When you apply it to the round hole of the pie, it fits perfectly, literally in every detail. 44) We've seen the crystal dissolve in seconds in wine, Cressen's wine. It will dissolve more slowly in pie because the same liquid that exists in wine, water, exists in pie. But again, this is all moot because Joffrey drank wine and nothing happened, then he ate pie and drank wine and started choking, in exactly the same time frame as Cressen. So there's your wine, right there in the victim's mouth. And there is every reason to believe that Tyrion would do the same because a) he loves his wine, and b) the pie will be dry. 45) Crunching on it will break it up so that it dissolves even more quickly with his saliva. It's just a tiny thing, so he is not going to spit it out, and it will also give the illusion that he choked on a bone. By the time Tyrion realizes it's not a bone, it's too late. 46) Pigeon pie is dark brown or purplish. Here are some pictures: Pigeon pie: an ever evolving dish - The Field Game of Thrones Faux Pigeon Pie (craftlog.com) Really Nice Recipes - Pigeon Pie See how moist and savory the filling is? There is plenty of water in there to dissolve a crystal that breaks up that quickly in wine. 47) The only person sticking her hand anywhere near the pie is Lady Olenna, while the servant is holding it behind the head table waiting for the ceremony to conclude. The moment the doves take flight, she only needs to make sure one person is looking away, the servant, and then she tucks the crystal into the filling in a split second. Blink, and it's done. And she even knows with a high degree of certainty which part will be Tyrion's one and only bite: the pointy end, which is also the easiest to poison. 48) Joffrey's wine was "deep purple" supposedly from the one crystal in his larger quantity of wine. If the argument is that Cressen's wine had even more poison in it than Joffrey's, then it must have been deeper than deep purple. And since we are talking about four-five-fold increase in reaction time (which I've already explained is absurd, but just for argument's sake let's go with it), then Cressen's wine must have been four-to-five times deeper than deep purple, which should have turned it near black. So even if you cling to the fiction that Cressen simply didn't notice this or didn't care, then we still have the problem of a single "flake" of a crystal discoloring an ordinary amount of wine to this degree. And if this is the case, then there is no way that this poison would gain the reputation it has as a killer of high-value targets, since it can be so easily detected, and the preferred method most certainly not be in crystal form dropped into wine. 49) And Tywin, Cersei or anyone else can undo this "marriage" at any time for any reason. Tommen is a huge risk, and even if successful puts Margaery in a less politically valuable position than she would have with Joffrey within a much shorter timeframe. 50) Cersei still needs the Tyrell army. That's why she had the faith accuse her while she posed as her champion. The only reason she agrees to this marriage to begin with is because Jaime points out that it can be undone at any time. 51) Good grief, are you kidding me? Littlefinger doesn't care if Varys reports to Cersei and Tywin that they ran out a back door, down a flight of steps in the cliff to the river? You don't think this information would prompt Tywin to send the royal navy out into the bay to search every single ship in the area? And this wouldn't be a problem for Littlefinger? 52) Tyrion choking would provide plenty of distraction. Again, he you ever seen anyone choke? I have, and it's not pretty. 53) Joffrey, the person who beats and tortures people for no reason, would take no retribution against someone who dishonored him at his wedding? We see nobody else eat because Tyrion had other things to deal with than scan the room at that moment. 54, 55) Because this is a toast and she is his queen and they live in a chivalrous society, so ladies would go first. But he's the king, so maybe he would go first. Either way, it doesn't matter because he takes his drink and within three seconds he hands the cup back to her. Now what does she do? Fake an epileptic seizure? Suddenly faint? Go into a fit of coughing? Only to then see the king drop dead a few moments later? And no, no one would expect joff to take a full chalice and drain the thing right then and there. This is the first time he's ever drank heavily, and we've seen him at multiple formal events. Yes, half-a-minute, or just shy of it. This is how long it took for the poison to work on him if it was in the wine. 56) Why would anyone want to poison Sansa? They are all trying to get Sansa. She is the key to the north. Who says the bedding has to wait until the feast is over? 57, 58) You had to scroll up to see it though, right? Quoted text does not appear when you hit the quote button. See? Quote Quoted text It's much easier to answer your questions in a way that makes it clear what I am referring to. It's doesn't always work perfectly but it's much better than just seeing "What makes you think that?" Sorry, I don't have a dual monitor or fancy text editors. I just use the page as designed, and when you post cryptic questions in your response, it's annoying to have to scroll up and down trying to figure out what you're talking about. My way is easier because it's all right there in one place. 59) Exactly, this is why Dontos delivered the hairnet immediately. LF can't trust Dontos to hole the poison or the hairnet for the months til the wedding arrives. Sansa is the only safe place to keep it, and none of this requires Lady Olenna to be part of the plot yet. He can tell her where and how to get the poison at any time, after he has made sure that she is just as motivated to kill the victim as he is. She has all the motivation in the world the kill Tyrion, and none at all to kill Joffrey. And neither does Littlefinger. 60) Sorry, Tywin could get her out? Why would Tywin need to get her out, he already has her. Leaving her with Tywin is not an option for Lady O because he'll just marry her off to another Lannisters. Lady O can't get Sansa out because she has no way of doing it without being seen. Only LF can do this cleanly, so from Lady O's perspective it is better to have her with LF than with Tywin, because getting Sansa for herself is no longer an option. 61) Sorry, nobody will notice if Sansa slips out when Tyrion loses it. A choking man is not something people will ignore. 62) Who's talking about the Ruby Ford? I'm talking about virtually every interaction between then in both Feast and Storm. Literally every conversation has her mocking him, belittling him, correcting him. Margaery is way too smart for that. 63) So? Joffrey is not going to start beating Margy to a pulp the moment he gets her alone. He is utterly infatuated with her. Everyone can see that. If he ever becomes a problem, the stage will be all set for him to meet with some unfortunate accident, like Lord Lothar did, and then Margaery takes over -- something that will never happen with Tommen. 64) Uh, Stannis? He is still on Dragonstone, remember? 65) Yes he is, and Uncle Jaime will be right there to make sure. Joffrey is still under a regency. And this will apply in spades if he starts doing anything that disrupts the alliance. 66) The story is that LF fathered Sansa on a gentlewoman of Braavos he met in Gulltown "when I had charge of the port." This was most definitely within in the past 10 years and you don't need to go interrogating into her origins in order to know this. 67) This is her cover story. If he isn't going to tell anyone, then why does she need this cover story at all? 68) Sorry, I don't know what Joffrey's "strategic calculus" is. But it is clear from the books that he doesn't just going around torturing people for no reason. Every thing he did was in response to some prompt. Margaery is not going to be that stupid and Uncle Jaime is not going to let me jeopardize the alliance. If it got anywhere close to that, he would sit Joff down and explain the situation with him, keeping the two of them separate if necessary. And he would most certainly instruct his KGs, as their commander, to come to him if anything looks amiss between Joff and Margaery. Margaery is in absolutely no danger. 69) In what way is Garlan disabled? 70) Sorry, I don't know what you're on about here. The United States is the global hegemon, and it would most definitely be threatened to the point of retaliation if it suddenly found itself surrounded and out-gunned by any other power. This would be a major disruption to the status quo, just like Tywin's rise is a major disruption of thousands of years of the Westerosi status quo. 71) How do you figure that? The northwest border is right up the coast, but the southeast (if there even is such a point) is about a 100 leagues inland through Dornish territory. But even if it was in island, so what? Islands can't be invaded? Inhabitants of the eastern half of Briton 1200 years ago might disagree. The Reach has just as much common border with other realms as the riverlands and they are just as wide open to invasion, but nobody bothers them precisely because of the superior numbers. This one advantage would be lost if Tywin builds his empire in virtually the same way that the Reach built its. 72) In what way is Russian succession even slightly relevant? The only relevance is that they are a great power today, but less great than the United States, which would be beside itself if Russia suddenly occupied its northern and southern neighbors. That's the situation Lady Olenna finds itself regarding Tywin and his empire-building. 73) From the earliest Gardeners to the Tyrells, Highgarden has maintained its power through marriage. While the other houses were warring against the Andals, the Gardeners married them. While the other kingdoms were fighting each other, the Gardeners were marrying their banners and shoring up their internal alliances. The Tyrells, Redwynes, Hightowers and others (except the Florents) are one bit extended family now. Marriage is what cements political/military alliances in a feudal society. Why bother marrying Margy to Joffrey at all if it serves no purpose? And sons inherit crowns, not daughters, but as we've seen, with the king busy with other things, raising the heir falls to the queen, who can easily raise her son to value her family over the king's. This is how the game of thrones is played. 74) Tywin objected 20 years ago when Emmon was way down the list for the Twins, let alone Riverrun. Now that he is Lord of Riverrun, Genna is Lady and Lyonel is heir. Tywin Lannister has maneuvered himself into a blood tie to Riverrun, the strongest castle in the riverlands and the traditional seat of the region. 75) Nonsense. If he hadn't done that then houses on the fence would start to think Robb was going to win. That's the point here, as everyone in this society can see. This is what happens to hostages. This is why you have them. 76) Tyrion wasn't around for the initial beatings, which probably stopped when word of Jaime's capture came down. This would have been at his mother's orders, the queen regent, whom Joffrey obeys, because he is a king under a regency. That's the way it works. 77) Yes, Joffrey thinks that, but he doesn't just go around beating people for no reason. With Sansa he has a reason. He has no reason to mistreat Margaery because he is madly in love with her and wants to make her happy. It's all right there in the text. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nevets Posted April 6, 2021 Share Posted April 6, 2021 @John Suburbs @FictionIsntReal I've long since lost track of the specifics of the debate, but would like to make some comments. So, Joffrey beats Sansa because she says stuff he doesn't like, belittling him, etc.? In other words, he is quick to nager for no good reason, resulting in impulsive acts of violence and cruelty. Sounds like a real winner; someone Olenna would love her granddaughter to marry - not to mention running a country. LOL. And the Tyrells have no assurance that he won't acts in a similar fashion to Margaery if he has reason to be displease with her. Say, if she fials to produce an heir (a real possibility) or disagrees with his public acts of cruelty, or something like that. And Loras is not someone I would necessarily trust to actg rationally under such circumstances. Of course the Tyrells know about Joffrey's behavior. His public actions can be discovered, and are pretty bad by themselves. But most of Sansa's mistreatment was in private, so they likely don't have trustworthy sources on that, thus their questioning of Sansa. And her reaction to merely being asked should tell them everything they need to know. By the way, if they find out that the stories are nonsense, and Joffrey is OK, all they need to do about the poison is ... nothing. My impression of the was that it acts by essentially causing something like an allergic reaction, resulting in anyphalactic shock, similar to being stung by a swarm of wasps or the like. In which dissolving it makes sense. In any event, it is a fictitious poison with fictitious effects. Dissolving in wine is the only method given for administering it. If Tyrion were the target, something I cannot see the reason for, then Sansa won't be going anywhere. She is sitting right next to him, so all eyes will be on her as well. Unobtrusively leaving won't be possible. Plus, Sansa being Sansa, will probably be tryiing to help her husband who is distress. I don't know whether or not Margaery is a virgin, but even if she is not, I doubt she has much experience. She certainly isn't going to get much fro Renly. An experienced and skilled seductress she is not. The hairnet wads delivered shortly after Littlefinger's visit to Highgarden. It is quite obvious that he is planning for somebody to die, or there is no point to going to the trouble and expense of making it. And I in no way buy the suggestion that it is a "victim to be named later." That is plain stupid. The Tyrells plans to take Sansa to Highgarden are a threat to Littlefinger's own plans for her. She isn't going to go with Dontos if she can go to Highgarden, so LF has to spike their plans by revealing them. I suspect that the marriage to Tyrion was an unpleasant surprise. it is also the cause of his attempt to frame Tyrion for the murder. He needs Tyrion dead at that point. Not before, though. He suggested Tyrion for the job of Master of Coin, suggesting that he isn't worried about what he might find. I don't think the Tyrells intended Tyrion, or anyone else, to take the blame. They were intending to blame the pidgeon pie, i.e., it was natural or an accident. Sansa carrying in the murder weapon is a way to avoid being betrayed. The Strang;ler is the only evidence of their plans, so having it for a little time as possible is necessary. If Sansa is arrested, all she can say is Dontos gave her the hairnet, and he would likely be dead or disappeared by the time anyone looked for him. Even if she is asked about who touched it, Olenna has a reasonable excuse, that she was adjusting it. Olenna is the sort of person you do not arrest without really good evidence or as part of an existing purge, neither of which is the case. Sansa's disguise and alias is entirely Littlefinger's creation. Any problems can be laid to him. I doubt her claiming to be 14 is an issue. If it is, that is Littlefinger's fault, and he could get into great trouble if he is discovered harboring her, at least for now. I suspect Myranda Royce knows who Sansa really is. Others may suspect. The Starks appear to be generally popular there, so that will help in that regard. That's all for now. I probably missed a few things. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lord Varys Posted April 6, 2021 Share Posted April 6, 2021 23 minutes ago, Nevets said: @John Suburbs @FictionIsntReal I've long since lost track of the specifics of the debate, but would like to make some comments. So, Joffrey beats Sansa because she says stuff he doesn't like, belittling him, etc.? In other words, he is quick to nager for no good reason, resulting in impulsive acts of violence and cruelty. Sounds like a real winner; someone Olenna would love her granddaughter to marry - not to mention running a country. LOL. And the Tyrells have no assurance that he won't acts in a similar fashion to Margaery if he has reason to be displease with her. Say, if she fials to produce an heir (a real possibility) or disagrees with his public acts of cruelty, or something like that. And Loras is not someone I would necessarily trust to actg rationally under such circumstances. Yes, the idea that Olenna - or any of the smarter Tyrells - would wish for such a scenario if they could help it is pretty stupid. Even more so when the text actually spills out that they did not ;-). 23 minutes ago, Nevets said: Of course the Tyrells know about Joffrey's behavior. His public actions can be discovered, and are pretty bad by themselves. But most of Sansa's mistreatment was in private, so they likely don't have trustworthy sources on that, thus their questioning of Sansa. And her reaction to merely being asked should tell them everything they need to know. By the way, if they find out that the stories are nonsense, and Joffrey is OK, all they need to do about the poison is ... nothing. It is also quite clear that questioning Sansa about Joffrey had two purposes: 1. Make the final decision whether to murder the royal brat or not. 2. Sweeten up Sansa for the Willas plan. They would have wanted to do 2. regardless whether they also wanted to murder Joffrey or not. But to do that they had to befriend Sansa. 23 minutes ago, Nevets said: My impression of the was that it acts by essentially causing something like an allergic reaction, resulting in anyphalactic shock, similar to being stung by a swarm of wasps or the like. In which dissolving it makes sense. In any event, it is a fictitious poison with fictitious effects. Dissolving in wine is the only method given for administering it. The very idea that the Strangler could be administered in a non-liquid substance is stupid because it is nowhere stated to be the case. Even more so since it would be infinitely impossible to actually poison a specific slice of pie with such a substance. Even if it could be dissolved in whatever liquids are in the pie, you would have do that in the baking process, since it is quite clear this poison has to be dissolved to be effective. If you swallow a Strangler crystal you may not even be poisoned at all. 23 minutes ago, Nevets said: If Tyrion were the target, something I cannot see the reason for, then Sansa won't be going anywhere. She is sitting right next to him, so all eyes will be on her as well. Unobtrusively leaving won't be possible. Plus, Sansa being Sansa, will probably be tryiing to help her husband who is distress. Tyrion is pretty much a nobody at this point, anyway. Nobody would want to poison him of all people. 23 minutes ago, Nevets said: The hairnet wads delivered shortly after Littlefinger's visit to Highgarden. It is quite obvious that he is planning for somebody to die, or there is no point to going to the trouble and expense of making it. And I in no way buy the suggestion that it is a "victim to be named later." That is plain stupid. We actually have no reason to assume this prop is Littlefinger's idea or was made at his command. It is Olenna Redwyne who uses it during the wedding feast, not Littlefinger nor any of his cronies. And this could (but doesn't have to) mean that Olenna gave the hairnet to Littlefinger and told him to give it to Sansa through a trusted agent. Could also be that Littlefinger came up with that idea, but we don't know. 23 minutes ago, Nevets said: The Tyrells plans to take Sansa to Highgarden are a threat to Littlefinger's own plans for her. She isn't going to go with Dontos if she can go to Highgarden, so LF has to spike their plans by revealing them. I suspect that the marriage to Tyrion was an unpleasant surprise. it is also the cause of his attempt to frame Tyrion for the murder. He needs Tyrion dead at that point. Not before, though. He suggested Tyrion for the job of Master of Coin, suggesting that he isn't worried about what he might find. We don't know who came up with the Tyrion-Sansa match - whether that was something Littlefinger also suggested when he informed Tywin, or whether Tywin decided that all by himself. But Littlefinger indeed kept Tyrion at court by suggesting he succeed him as Master of Coin, thus ensuring Tyrion was there for the royal wedding and could take the fall. If Tyrion hadn't been offered this job he may have decided to live for Casterly Rock or some other place before the wedding, especially in light of his health. 23 minutes ago, Nevets said: I don't think the Tyrells intended Tyrion, or anyone else, to take the blame. They were intending to blame the pidgeon pie, i.e., it was natural or an accident. Sansa carrying in the murder weapon is a way to avoid being betrayed. The Strang;ler is the only evidence of their plans, so having it for a little time as possible is necessary. Plan A was to make the death look natural. That is made obvious when Alerie consoles Margaery claiming that 'we all saw' that Joffrey choked to death. That's why they used the Strangler, anyway. It is one of the poisons which can fake a natural death with a pretty good success rate. Plan B was to use a scapegoat - Littlefinger set up Tyrion to take the fall, and we can assume he acted with the Tyrells in that capacity, especially in light of the fact how Garlan buttered up Tyrion the entire time. The hairnet was there to have not only somebody with a motive but also the means to murder Joffrey. After all, the plan insofar as the Tyrells were concerned would have been that Sansa and her hairnet would still be there after the poisoning. They would not go anywhere, so they could be produced at any time if it became convenient. And Sansa wearing the hairnet wouldn't necessarily mean she was the poisoner if they wanted Tyrion to take the fall. He was her lord husband, and she didn't have the funds or means to acquire expensive jewellery. We know Sansa got the hairnet from Dontos, but if Sansa/Tyrion were ever questioned people would believe Tyrion gave it to her since he would be the only person with the money to buy it. 23 minutes ago, Nevets said: If Sansa is arrested, all she can say is Dontos gave her the hairnet, and he would likely be dead or disappeared by the time anyone looked for him. Even if she is asked about who touched it, Olenna has a reasonable excuse, that she was adjusting it. Olenna is the sort of person you do not arrest without really good evidence or as part of an existing purge, neither of which is the case. Sansa would have forgotten that Olenna touched the hairnet. She did forget it in the book, too, until Littlefinger made her think about whether anyone touched her hair throughout the entire evening. But Olenna cannot have been the poisoner, anyway, considering her size and the size of the chalice. She must have passed on the crystal to some other member of her family, most likely Garlan - who, in my opinion, put the Strangler into the chalice when everybody was watching the pie cutting. It is then that everybody stands up, meaning Garlan has direct and good access to that gigantic chalice. In that sense - even if somebody where to try to point a finger at Olenna, it wouldn't work. They would have to accuse all the Tyrells to make this idea work, and that they couldn't possibly do since the Lannister regime is dependent on their support. But as we see with Olenna's last offer to take Sansa to Highgarden it seems to be pretty obvious that Olenna intended to protect Sansa from prosecution as long as she could. If she had agreed to visit Highgarden and hadn't disappeared, the Tyrells would have likely taken her to their own chambers immediately after the feast, ensuring that she wouldn't be arrested or suspected. After all, it would be so easy to have some fake witness - like Taena - to claim they saw Tyrion handle the poison, not Sansa. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SeanF Posted April 6, 2021 Share Posted April 6, 2021 4 hours ago, Lord Varys said: But as we see with Olenna's last offer to take Sansa to Highgarden it seems to be pretty obvious that Olenna intended to protect Sansa from prosecution as long as she could. If she had agreed to visit Highgarden and hadn't disappeared, the Tyrells would have likely taken her to their own chambers immediately after the feast, ensuring that she wouldn't be arrested or suspected. After all, it would be so easy to have some fake witness - like Taena - to claim they saw Tyrion handle the poison, not Sansa. But, if Sansa had been captured, I doubt if the Tyrells would have raised a finger in her defence. No doubt, Olenna, Garlan, and Margaery would have been sad as they watched what was left of her, after questioning, being burned, but she would have been collateral damage. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lord Varys Posted April 6, 2021 Share Posted April 6, 2021 4 hours ago, SeanF said: But, if Sansa had been captured, I doubt if the Tyrells would have raised a finger in her defence. No doubt, Olenna, Garlan, and Margaery would have been sad as they watched what was left of her, after questioning, being burned, but she would have been collateral damage. Of course, but I think the scenario we got - that Tyrion was arrested immediately after Joff's death - wasn't the Tyrell plan. They wanted to push plan A (Joff choking accidentally) but Littlefinger set up Tyrion as the scapegoat with the entire dwarf episode. If Cersei hadn't commanded Tyrion's arrest immediately, they would have likely gone with the accident scenario until and if Pycelle had done a post mortem to discover what had actually killed Joffrey. And by that time Sansa could already have been on the way to Highgarden if Olenna was sincere in her final offer - which indicated they would leave the next day. Joff wouldn't be cut open in the night of his death, after all. But, of course, if Cersei had arrested Sansa the way she did Tyrion then and there ... then trying to get her out of that would have been very difficult, possibly even dangerous. But that didn't happen and most likely wouldn't have happened. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Megorova Posted April 6, 2021 Share Posted April 6, 2021 In my opinion Mace Tyrell is not a fool. Based on multiple hints in the books (including in The Sworn Sword novel), I think that the Reachmen are and always were (as far back as 100+ years ago) Blackfyre-supporters. It's likely that after the Battle at the Redgrass Field, Bittersteel and the remnants of Daemon's army were transported across the Narrow Sea via courtesy of either Runceford Redwyne (Olenna Tyrell's father) or Runceford's father and the Redwyne-fleet. That's why Illyrio has a cask of wine from Runceford's private stores. That's why during Robert's Rebellion Mace Tyrell intentionally arrived late to the Battle at Ashford, only when it was already obvious whose side will win, and afterwards went to siege Storm's End, which was a useless deed. Apparently he had an agreement with Varys (who is a Blackfyre and the real leader of the Golden Company), that he will keep his army out of the conflict. He won't bring reinforcements to King's Landing, to aid King Aerys against whoever will come after him. Afterwards, Varys planned that Golden Company will arrive to Westeros and will join forces with the Tyrell-army to attack whoever will win in Robert's Rebellion. Though Tywin's intervention and his offer to marry Cersei to Robert, ruined Varys' plans. If Tywin's army fought against the troops that were brought to King's Landing by Ned, then Tywin would have won. Because Tywin's troops were fresh and Ned's troops were weakened from the previous battles and from their race to KL. Though a bit later Tywin possibly would have been defeated by the reinforcements brought by Robert. So afterwards, even if Robert would have won, he would have been left with weakened troops that have fought in multiple battles and suffered great looses. If shortly after the fall of King's Landing, Tyrell-troops would have arrived and attacked the city from the land-side and Golden Company with the Redwyne Fleet would have attacked from the sea-side, then Robert would have lost. Though, because of what Tywin did, the Sixth Rebellion of Blackfyres got indefinitely postponed. Seems that Varys promised to Tyrells that Margaery will marry with fAegon and will become the Queen of the 7K, when GC and Tyrell-forces will seize Iron Throne for fAegon. Though Tyrells got tired of waiting (same as Golden Company) and eventually started acting on their own and even went against Varys and conspired with Littlefinger, who is Varys' ex-disciple and his enemy. Also could be that Runceford's wife, Olenna Tyrell's mother, was either Calla Blackfyre or Daemon I's other daughter. We know that Calla was originally promised by Daemon to marry with Bittersteel, though GRRM revealed that they didn't married. Could be that Bittersteel offered to give up his bride in exchange for the passage across the Narrow Sea for him and his people. And thus Lord Redwyne got a Blackfyre-bride for his son as a payment for his assistance to Bittersteel. Roses + calla lilies is a typical bridal bouquet (Luthor Tyrell is a "rose" and Olenna is a "calla lily". And this looks very much like a sigil of House Tyrell - https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Luther_rose). That's why Redwynes and Tyrells for many years were supporting GC. Because Olenna is half-Blackfyre. Margaery is 1/8 Blackfyre and her first husband, Renly Baratheon, was 1/8 Targaryen. Tyrells got tired of waiting for a Blackfyre to come, and settled to marry Margaery with a partial Targaryen (Renly and then Robert's sons). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John Suburbs Posted April 7, 2021 Share Posted April 7, 2021 On 4/5/2021 at 11:23 PM, Nevets said: @John Suburbs @FictionIsntReal I've long since lost track of the specifics of the debate, but would like to make some comments. So, Joffrey beats Sansa because she says stuff he doesn't like, belittling him, etc.? In other words, he is quick to nager for no good reason, resulting in impulsive acts of violence and cruelty. Sounds like a real winner; someone Olenna would love her granddaughter to marry - not to mention running a country. LOL. And the Tyrells have no assurance that he won't acts in a similar fashion to Margaery if he has reason to be displease with her. Say, if she fials to produce an heir (a real possibility) or disagrees with his public acts of cruelty, or something like that. And Loras is not someone I would necessarily trust to actg rationally under such circumstances. Of course the Tyrells know about Joffrey's behavior. His public actions can be discovered, and are pretty bad by themselves. But most of Sansa's mistreatment was in private, so they likely don't have trustworthy sources on that, thus their questioning of Sansa. And her reaction to merely being asked should tell them everything they need to know. By the way, if they find out that the stories are nonsense, and Joffrey is OK, all they need to do about the poison is ... nothing. My impression of the was that it acts by essentially causing something like an allergic reaction, resulting in anyphalactic shock, similar to being stung by a swarm of wasps or the like. In which dissolving it makes sense. In any event, it is a fictitious poison with fictitious effects. Dissolving in wine is the only method given for administering it. If Tyrion were the target, something I cannot see the reason for, then Sansa won't be going anywhere. She is sitting right next to him, so all eyes will be on her as well. Unobtrusively leaving won't be possible. Plus, Sansa being Sansa, will probably be tryiing to help her husband who is distress. I don't know whether or not Margaery is a virgin, but even if she is not, I doubt she has much experience. She certainly isn't going to get much fro Renly. An experienced and skilled seductress she is not. The hairnet wads delivered shortly after Littlefinger's visit to Highgarden. It is quite obvious that he is planning for somebody to die, or there is no point to going to the trouble and expense of making it. And I in no way buy the suggestion that it is a "victim to be named later." That is plain stupid. The Tyrells plans to take Sansa to Highgarden are a threat to Littlefinger's own plans for her. She isn't going to go with Dontos if she can go to Highgarden, so LF has to spike their plans by revealing them. I suspect that the marriage to Tyrion was an unpleasant surprise. it is also the cause of his attempt to frame Tyrion for the murder. He needs Tyrion dead at that point. Not before, though. He suggested Tyrion for the job of Master of Coin, suggesting that he isn't worried about what he might find. I don't think the Tyrells intended Tyrion, or anyone else, to take the blame. They were intending to blame the pidgeon pie, i.e., it was natural or an accident. Sansa carrying in the murder weapon is a way to avoid being betrayed. The Strang;ler is the only evidence of their plans, so having it for a little time as possible is necessary. If Sansa is arrested, all she can say is Dontos gave her the hairnet, and he would likely be dead or disappeared by the time anyone looked for him. Even if she is asked about who touched it, Olenna has a reasonable excuse, that she was adjusting it. Olenna is the sort of person you do not arrest without really good evidence or as part of an existing purge, neither of which is the case. Sansa's disguise and alias is entirely Littlefinger's creation. Any problems can be laid to him. I doubt her claiming to be 14 is an issue. If it is, that is Littlefinger's fault, and he could get into great trouble if he is discovered harboring her, at least for now. I suspect Myranda Royce knows who Sansa really is. Others may suspect. The Starks appear to be generally popular there, so that will help in that regard. That's all for now. I probably missed a few things. Robert was a drunkard and a rampant philanderer, yet Tywin still married his only daughter to him. Lords allowed their daughters to be Aegon iV's concubines. The Tyrells themselves backed mad king Aerys despite all the cruelties he inflicted. The character of the king is not important in the game of thrones. The crown is. Joffrey gets the Tyrells a crown in a fraction of the time of Tommen. Once that happens he can be disposed of at any time, privately, not in front of a thousand witnesses. Margaery has already shown how easily she can manipulate Joffrey, and she is in fact one of only two people who can do this. She knows better than to antagonize him the way Sansa, Cersei, Tywin and literally everyone else does. She is going to laugh at all his lame jokes, smile at his cruelties, give him all the sex he wants however he wants it, and then barf into her chamber pot later. That's her job. She is in absolutely no danger from Joffrey; it's the exact opposite, in fact. Sansa was publicly beaten in front of the entire court, including Lady Olenna's grandsons. None of this is news to her by the time they have their dinner. Lol, do nothing? And let LF kill the king who they now want Margaery to marry and who will give them a crown? And LF's plan was to invite Lady O in on this plot and then let her decide to join or not, resting assured that if she chooses not she would have no reason to tell Tywin or Cersei, or Joffrey? I think not. No allergic reaction. It constricts the windpipe and only the windpipe. Allergies would affect other systems, and there would be no way of assuring that any dose was strong enough because allergic reactions are different for everyone. Dissolving in wine is the most obvious way to do it, but the text shows this is not the only way it can dissolve. Remember the smudge in the hairnet? No wine there. But even if you insist it must be wine and only wine, just read the text. Joff shows no reaction after his first big gulps, then eats pie and shows a slight reaction almost immediately, then drinks wine and starts choking in the exact same time frame as Cressen. So there's your wine. And since Tyrion is very fond of wine, there is no reason to think he won't drink as well, especially since the pie is "a bit dry, though. Needs washing down." Which is yet more evidence that the crystal is in the pie, drying it out. The reason for Tyrion being the target is to prevent Tywin from gaining the north. This is a far more serious development than Margaery getting a black eye. Sansa won't be right next to him because people (mainly Garlan) will naturally rush to his aid. Nobody will be looking at Sansa, and Dontos is right there to usher her out if she freezes or tries to help. And honestly, in what way would Sansa think she could help? She didn't try to help Joffrey. Margaery has been trained in the arts of seduction by two of the best in the business, Lady Taena Merrywhether and Lady Olenna Tyrell. This is how women operate in a hopelessly patriarchal society. The hairnet was delivered weeks if not months after LF's visit to Highgarden. LF left for Bitterbridge shortly after Renly's death, then maybe a few weeks more to get to HG, or less than a week if they went by river. Meanwhile, Tywin had just left Harrenhal, had to march hhis army across the riverlands, fought the numerous battle of the fords, broke for Tumbler's Falls, the ride down the river, then the battle. Of course he was planning for someone to die. But it's doubtful it was Joffrey because he is too valuable a piece for LF. Any death by choking at the wedding is enough to get Sansa out. Choking is a long, ugly way to die. I know because I've seen it. We can see that this is a fluid plan because LF makes the first contact with Sansa early in Feast, before J+M was even a possibility, and he connected with Dontos earlier than that. So the idea that LF would only deliver the hairnet if he had all the details worked out is nonsense. He certainly hadn't planned on framing Tyrion for the murder yet because no one even knows Tyrion is still alive at this point. So getting the hairnet to Sansa is the safest thing right now because it can be used no matter how the plan unfolds later, including the final selection of both the victim and the poisoner. The Tyrells weren't going to bring Sansa to Highgarden until after the wedding, after LF had planned on taking her. So at best this is a minor wrinkle if Sansa sees this as a better option than his. But this can be countered without scotching his own plan by ratting out the Willas plot. Sansa very quickly starts to suspect the Tyrells are up to something because they are so nonchalant about Joffrey, and this idea was fostered by Dontos. So there was every reason to believe she would have come around without jeopardizing his own plan like he did. The marriage to Tyrion was not an unpleasant surprise. It is the only thing Tywin would do once he learns the Tyrells are trying to steal her. They all want the north and she is the key. Tyrion was well on the mend by then, but even if he wasn't Tywin would find another Lannister to marry her to. Now, LF not only has to kill Joffrey to cover Sansa's escape, he has to kill Joffrey and somehow frame Tyrion for it, which is a dramatically more difficult prospect, and there is no way he could have counted on both victims making all the decisions they did in order to make it all come out right. Literally, if Joffrey hadn't placed the chalice exactly where he did, the whole thing would have gone tits up. But ratting out the Willas plan makes perfect sense when you realize how deftly this orchestrates the situation to make Lady O's motivation to kill Tyrion as strong as his own. Now he doesn't have to worry about her not going along with the plan. Why would they expect Joffrey to be eating pigeon pie, which is at his place at the table, when he is drinking toasts down on the throneroom floor? Sansa carrying the murder weapon on her head is the only way LF and LO can be sure neither of them are betrayed. Like you said, it is evidence, so LO isn't going to want to take it only to have Lannister guards come bursting into the room, and LF doesn't want her to have it until the day of the wedding when he is ready for a clean getaway if it all goes south. No, Sansa will say that Lady O fiddled with the hairnet right before the wedding. And since the only reason to wear the poison on her head is for someone else to take it, this makes Lady O the prime suspect. She does not have a reasonable excuse. There was no wind that day, and the whole purpose of a hairnet is to keep the hair in place even if there is wind. Plus, she was also right behind the table just before all the action started. Yes, Alayne was entirely LF's idea, as was the idea of her being no older than his time as chief of Gulltown, which she clearly is not. So yes, this is all Lf's fault, but it's Sansa's head if they decide to rat her out to the queen. Yes, Miranda knows who she is, in part because she knows that there is no possible way she could be 14. And the whole point of this discussion was not at assign blame for it, but to show that Sansa's grasp on things is tenuous at best, so she cannot be relied on to correctly assess the utterly ridiculous idea that Loras will kill Joffrey it he hurts Margaery. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Daeron the Daring Posted April 7, 2021 Share Posted April 7, 2021 4 minutes ago, John Suburbs said: Robert was a drunkard and a rampant philanderer, yet Tywin still married his only daughter to him. Lords allowed their daughters to be Aegon iV's concubines. The Tyrells themselves backed mad king Aerys despite all the cruelties he inflicted. The character of the king is not important in the game of thrones. The crown is. Joffrey gets the Tyrells a crown in a fraction of the time of Tommen. Once that happens he can be disposed of at any time, privately, not in front of a thousand witnesses. Margaery has already shown how easily she can manipulate Joffrey, and she is in fact one of only two people who can do this. She knows better than to antagonize him the way Sansa, Cersei, Tywin and literally everyone else does. She is going to laugh at all his lame jokes, smile at his cruelties, give him all the sex he wants however he wants it, and then barf into her chamber pot later. That's her job. She is in absolutely no danger from Joffrey; it's the exact opposite, in fact. You completely miss that one addition to Joffrey's character that he's unpredictable and not sane. He's not thinking the way a normal person would, because he's a lunatic who has no limits at the age of 12. That means that he can be offended by something that's normal to others and can overreact things the most radical way imaginable. Margaery can learn into this, don't get me wrong, but to Joffrey, one single move could mean her death. Why the risk? Margaery plays her grandmother's game, he might not be a true player, but she's not a puppet either and is pretty much the heir to Olenna's legacy. Olenna isn't Tywin, nor is Margaery Cersei, and Robert and Joffrey are both bad, but in a very-very different way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John Suburbs Posted April 8, 2021 Share Posted April 8, 2021 22 hours ago, Daeron the Daring said: You completely miss that one addition to Joffrey's character that he's unpredictable and not sane. He's not thinking the way a normal person would, because he's a lunatic who has no limits at the age of 12. That means that he can be offended by something that's normal to others and can overreact things the most radical way imaginable. Margaery can learn into this, don't get me wrong, but to Joffrey, one single move could mean her death. Why the risk? Margaery plays her grandmother's game, he might not be a true player, but she's not a puppet either and is pretty much the heir to Olenna's legacy. Olenna isn't Tywin, nor is Margaery Cersei, and Robert and Joffrey are both bad, but in a very-very different way. He is not unpredictable. He is in fact one of the most predictable characters in the book. Tell him he can't and he does it. Question his authority or belittle his knowledge and he lashes back. Rebel against the throne and he abuses his hostage, just like all kings and all lords do. This is why people like Margaery and Littlefinger can control him so easily, because he is predictable. No, "one single move" does not mean death. Show me where this has happened, unless you consider opening the gates to Stannis so that Stannis could come in and chop Joffrey's head off is a single move. Sansa made all kinds of snotty, snide remarks to Joffrey and she's still alive. Margaery does what is necessary for her house. This is why she married a gay man, a rotten, spoiled tween, and then a child. She knows the value of linking House Tyrell to the Iron Throne. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.