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saltedmalted

Mace Tyrell is a fool

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1 hour ago, SeanF said:

Setting Cersei aside would surely guarantee a civil war between her children and any children by Margarey.

That would depend whether there were any children by Margaery at all, and how they would get along ... and, most importantly, whether Margaery's children wanted to challenge Joffrey's succession or not.

If Robert had ruled for another 30-40 years then Joff's children could have succeeded him, since chances would not be that bad that Joff might have predeceased his father. The same, if Robert had kept Joff as his heir throughout his reign then chances are as well that Joff would have been fine with Queen Margaery.

Realistically, we would expect that Cersei being replaced by Margaery as per the Renly plan would also result in Robert cutting at least Joffrey out of the succession because he would make it very clear that he does not approve of this.

And the scenario of Margaery as Robert's queen is a scenario where Robert views Margaery as a second Lyanna and is as obsessed with her as he was with Lya ... which means he would do anything to be with her, anything at all. And that means that whoever stands between him and Margaery would have to go.

There is certainly a chance that if Cersei's children were to survive such a struggle - say, if they were sent to Casterly Rock to live there after being cut from the line of succession under this or that pretext - would eventually challenge the succession of Margaery's children if Robert had named one of them his successor ... but chances are not that bad that this wouldn't be that great of a challenge if we assume Robert ruled with Margaery long enough to have children with her. And if he could rid himself of Cersei he would also have had the power to punish or even crush Lannister power ... because Tywin and Jaime would just not accept this without a fight.

Also, one has to consider Joff's personality ... the man he may have grown into wouldn't be very popular and would have tremendous problems to convince the lords and knights he would be a good king.

And considering royal incest being a thing, Robert could also always decide to make matches within the family - marrying Myrcella to a son by Margaery or - if he lived long enough - arrange matches between his grandchildren by Margaery and his grandchildren by Cersei. Or some avucular stuff - marry the firstborn child of Joffrey to a child he had by Margaery. If Joff had married in his early teens as he did in the books his eldest child and Robert's firstborn by Margaery could be very close in age.

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13 hours ago, FictionIsntReal said:

Robert was also below a number of Targaryens in the succession, but by killing/exiling them all he became the top contender for the throne.

Renly knew about the incest, all of Cersei's kids would be gone and the Lannisters would be disgraced.

Eddard was planning on Stannis succeeding Robert. Northmen & Ironborn are both already adherents of a different religion from the crown, so that wouldn't really be different with Stannis.

Why is this being relitigated? I thought this ended when I pointed out that the official app said it was the wine that was poisoned.

No, controlling the capital is still valuable and has enabled the Lannisters to stay on top despite their numerous enemies and Robb repeatedly winning on the field. One might also compare the Russian Civil War when the Bolsheviks were opposed by numerous opponents whose division enabled the Red Army to defeat each in turn until they controlled the whole country.

If Renly killed Stannis in battle they might conclude he's sufficiently preferable to the Lannisters to accept his rule.

Robert didn't need him as long as he had the Lannisters.

It's not what the Vale lords wanted, it's what LF told Lysa to do. He didn't give that order for the benefit of the Vale, but instead to enable the Lannisters to have an initial advantage and then to be weakened once he'd left.

The upside is his daughter becomes queen, with the support of her husband's loyalists.

Pycelle knew, Varys knew, LF knew, Stannis knew, Arryn & Stark both figured it out before they were killed. Renly has Robert's own bastard (with his likeness) in his castle. Our concept of divorce doesn't really exist in Westeros, with annulment limited to cases where the wedding itself is somehow considered invalid (which does include non-consummation). Knowing about the incest perfectly fits his situation and his plan. The alternative would need some justification for us to believe it.

It actually would have been better for Robb to have abandoned the Riverlands.

Why should she bother with Essos? The Targaryens have a claim to Westeros, people who were loyal to them even when they shouldn't have been, and the throne is currently weak.

By who? The Golden Company?

If Renly knew about the incest why is he trying to leapfrog the succession?

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On 3/12/2021 at 9:25 PM, John Suburbs said:

I don't think this is accidental. There seems to be a distinct effort to keep Florent blood away from Highgarden. Even houses that marry Florents seem to be shunned: Cranes, Tarlys, etc. The one exception seems to be Leyton Hightower to Rhea Florent, whose daughter Alerie married Mace, which I can only imagine sticks in Lady Olenna's craw to this day -- and it might even be the reason she offed Lord Luthor.

Rhea isn't Alerie's mother. She's younger than Alerei. Rhea Florent is Lord Hightower's fourth wife. 

Tyrells would surely have Florent blood by indirect marriages unless Florents were marrying all their daughters outside the Reach.

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15 hours ago, FictionIsntReal said:

Knowing about the incest perfectly fits his situation and his plan. The alternative would need some justification for us to believe it.

"Isn't that a sweet story, my lady?" Renly asked. "I was camped at Horn Hill when Lord Tarly received his letter, and I must say, it took my breath away." He smiled at his brother. "I had never suspected you were so clever, Stannis. Were it only true, you would indeed be Robert's heir."

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19 hours ago, Aldarion said:
Maybe not. From a purely strategic perspective this is correct - Riverlands are nearly indefensible. But from a political perspective - well, his mother is a Tully, who are Lords Paramount of Riverlands. If he abandoned Riverlands, he would be abandoning his familial ties and duty... I don't think anyone would have trusted him after that. He could as well give up not just crown but being a lord.

I was actually referring to how Robb got killed by trying to shore up his support in the Riverlands. And even if his mother is a Tully, he's still a Stark and the north is his home. Even fewer can rely on him if he can't defend his home castle in a far more defensible part of Westeros.

14 hours ago, saltedmalted said:

Mace must fight a costly war to put Renly on the throne. Why should he do that?

Mace never actually fought at all with Renly as his king. Robb did the fighting while Mace did the feasting with his large, unused army. When the Tyrells do finally fight, it's a relatively easy victory for them which again sets up Margaery to be queen.

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The throne matters only if it gives you legitimacy, i.e. lets you impose your will without great bloodshed.

How much blood has he had to shed?

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Holding the capital did not help the Lannisters against Robb.

Of course it did. Roose Bolton noted Robb was doomed after his castle was sacked. Despite his losses in the field, Tywin's enemies still feared he would ultimately crush them. If the Lannisters lose KL, they would no longer seem the strong horse to their vassals.

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the Westerlands had not been invaded

Robb did invade the Westerlands and destroy the new army being raised there. He didn't seize Casterly Rock though.

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This is a spurious comparison.

How is it spurious? They held KL while Renly, Robb & Balon were all killed and Stannis was defeated and fled north.

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How would Renly make the Starks and the Tullies submit without Mace?

Because he didn't kill Ned or raze the Riverlands and he can help them get justice for that. They were fine with obeying Robert, their beef was with the Lannisters. It's certainly more awkward after Robb gets declared king, but far easier to settle things with Renly.

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Robert didn't need the Lannisters because he had the STAB alliance.

Jon Arryn disagreed when it came to actually ruling the kingdom.

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His daughter becomes queen because of his swords. Why does he need Renly if Highgarden is the real power?

It's a lot harder for just Highgarden to rule all the other kingdoms.

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The Lannisters are getting destroyed right now.

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When Mace decided to ally with the Lannisters they were losing.

You've gone from present to past tense.

14 hours ago, Lord Varys said:

The same, if Robert had kept Joff as his heir throughout his reign then chances are as well that Joff would have been fine with Queen Margaery.

We know that Robert is disturbed by the prospect of Joffrey inheriting. I suppose Joffrey could mature into a less disturbing person, GRRM has emphasized his age when explaining why he's such a bully. At the same time, Robert never even considers the possibility of naming Tommen or Stannis (or even Renly) as heir instead.

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Realistically, we would expect that Cersei being replaced by Margaery as per the Renly plan would also result in Robert cutting at least Joffrey out of the succession because he would make it very clear that he does not approve of this.

I'm a little confused. Is "he" Robert or Renly?

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There is certainly a chance that if Cersei's children were to survive such a struggle - say, if they were sent to Casterly Rock to live there after being cut from the line of succession under this or that pretext - would eventually challenge the succession of Margaery's children if Robert had named one of them his successor

Don't forget: Ned had already betrothed Sansa to Joffrey when Renly was asking him of that portrait of Margaery reminded him of Lyanna. In an alternate timeline where that continued, Ned would be obliged to stick up for the inheritance of his grandchildren viw Sansa & Joffrey. Of course, if Joffrey is revealed to be an incest bastard, his life is forfeit and there's no marriage alliance or children who can inherit from his specious claim.

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And considering royal incest being a thing

Only for Targaryens, otherwise the offspring of such unions are considered abominations. Otherwise the same rules are supposed to apply to them as other (presumably Seven-following) nobles.

14 hours ago, Angel Eyes said:

If Renly knew about the incest why is he trying to leapfrog the succession?

"Look at me, I'm the king!". Also, he's more popular than Stannis.

12 hours ago, saltedmalted said:

 

Renly's quote is not any justification for us believing that. He's just not granting Stannis' argument that would elevate Stannis above Renly... while Stannis is alive and opposing him.

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Posted (edited)
1 hour ago, FictionIsntReal said:

Mace never actually fought at all with Renly as his king. Robb did the fighting while Mace did the feasting with his large, unused army. When the Tyrells do finally fight, it's a relatively easy victory for them which again sets up Margaery to be queen.

Mace decided to crown Renly independent of Robb's actions.

Yes, Mace can win in the end but he can do so while letting Renly try and fail first. 

1 hour ago, FictionIsntReal said:

Mace never actually fought at all with Renly as his king. Robb did the fighting while Mace did the feasting with his large, unused army. When the Tyrells do finally fight, it's a relatively easy victory for them which again sets up Margaery to be queen.

Mace had no reason to believe things would happen as they did. 

1 hour ago, FictionIsntReal said:

If the Lannisters lose KL, they would no longer seem the strong horse to their vassals.

Lannisters couldn't lose because Stannis had not marched yet. If Robb had destroyed Tywin Lannister's army then KL would be worthless.

1 hour ago, FictionIsntReal said:

Roose Bolton noted Robb was doomed after his castle was sacked.

He is wrong. Robb was caught in a strategic bind as soon as he had to defend the Riverlands as its king.

1 hour ago, FictionIsntReal said:

Robb did invade the Westerlands and destroy the new army being raised there. He didn't seize Casterly Rock though.

Holding a castle means nothing if it cannot stop an army from controlling everything else.

1 hour ago, FictionIsntReal said:

Roose Bolton noted Robb was doomed after his castle was sacked.

In the Russian Civil War there was no joining of ofrces analogous to the Tyrell-Lannister alliance. 

1 hour ago, FictionIsntReal said:

They were fine with obeying Robert, their beef was with the Lannisters.

Why would the Starks follow Renly and not Stannis? Mace does not have meta-knowledge like the readers do.

1 hour ago, FictionIsntReal said:

Jon Arryn disagreed when it came to actually ruling the kingdom.

Jon Arryn is a plot device to set things up. After sacking KL the Lannisters had no other option besides backing Robert.

1 hour ago, FictionIsntReal said:

It's a lot harder for just Highgarden to rule all the other kingdoms.

Renly has an even smaller chance. Never mind Renly bings no legitimacy.

1 hour ago, FictionIsntReal said:

They were fine with obeying Robert, their beef was with the Lannisters.

Read my original comment again. I was describing the situation before the Blackwater, hence the use of present tense and "now".

1 hour ago, FictionIsntReal said:

He's just not granting Stannis' argument that would elevate Stannis above Renly... while Stannis is alive and opposing him.

Can you provide any textual evidence to make us believe that Renly knew about the incest? If he did why had he not raised the issue before?

Edited by saltedmalted

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11 hours ago, FictionIsntReal said:

We know that Robert is disturbed by the prospect of Joffrey inheriting. I suppose Joffrey could mature into a less disturbing person, GRRM has emphasized his age when explaining why he's such a bully. At the same time, Robert never even considers the possibility of naming Tommen or Stannis (or even Renly) as heir instead.

He was disturbed by Joff inheriting and Cersei whispering in Joff's ear. And that wouldn't have happened if Cersei had been set aside to be replaced by another queen ... not to mention if Joff had only succeeded Robert in his twenties or thirties or forties. Cersei may have already been dead by then.

Whether Robert actually ever thought about naming a different heir we don't know. It doesn't look that way but in a scenario where Robert sets aside Cersei for Margaery he would be singularly obsessed with Margaery, meaning as determined to get her as he was when he toppled the Targaryens. And there he produced and walked over corpses - meaning disinheriting an ingrate son could very well also be on the table.

11 hours ago, FictionIsntReal said:

I'm a little confused. Is "he" Robert or Renly?

Robert, he is the only one who could rule on his own succession.

11 hours ago, FictionIsntReal said:

Don't forget: Ned had already betrothed Sansa to Joffrey when Renly was asking him of that portrait of Margaery reminded him of Lyanna. In an alternate timeline where that continued, Ned would be obliged to stick up for the inheritance of his grandchildren viw Sansa & Joffrey. Of course, if Joffrey is revealed to be an incest bastard, his life is forfeit and there's no marriage alliance or children who can inherit from his specious claim.

Ned would be obliged to please his king ... and Ned was already willing to cancel that betrothal when Robert dismissed him as Hand over the Targaryen issue. And the way things were in AGoT Ned would likely approve of Robert's decision to cut ties with the Lannisters even if setting aside Cersei would be highly unusual. Not to mention that it is almost certain that the incest and murder of Jon Arryn would unravel in all that, too.

Once Robert was determined set aside Cersei, Ned would find the courage to talk to Robert about things. Not to mention that Stannis was still out there, too, and would eventually have to move his ass back to court if Robert were to continue to rule for years and years.

11 hours ago, FictionIsntReal said:

Only for Targaryens, otherwise the offspring of such unions are considered abominations. Otherwise the same rules are supposed to apply to them as other (presumably Seven-following) nobles.

It was royal incest, the incest of the royal family. Up to Aerys II they were named Targaryens, but Robert is of the same blood, never mind his name. He could claim that he was as exceptional as the Targaryens if he felt he had to. And avucular/cousin marriages were also not uncommon in other noble families.

The idea to marry half-siblings to each other to knit a fraying royal family together and restore a peace between Cersei's and Margaery's children might be viewed as less problematic than another civil war ... or not. It is just an option on the table they could try.

 

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19 hours ago, saltedmalted said:

Mace decided to crown Renly independent of Robb's actions.

He only decided to do so after Robb had already been fighting the Lannisters (and winning).

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Mace had no reason to believe things would happen as they did.

Agreed. He presumably thought his larger force would defeat Stannis, then proceed directly to KL (since he didn't have to stop at Storm's End to capture a castle already loyal to Renly).

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Lannisters couldn't lose because Stannis had not marched yet.

What time period are we talking about here?

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If Robb had destroyed Tywin Lannister's army then KL would be worthless.

Robert destroyed Rhaegar's army at the Trident, but Ned still had to rush forces to KL because he didn't think it was "worthless". Stannis was trying to seize KL without destroying Tywin's army in the field because he knew it was valuable, and he's arguably the best military leader in Westeros.

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He is wrong.

Everyone is ignorant of strategy in Westerosi war other than you it seems.

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Robb was caught in a strategic bind as soon as he had to defend the Riverlands as its king.

Retreating to a defensible position is a completely normal thing to do. MacArthur had to abandon the Phillipines even though he really didn't want to and had made promises, but he ultimately was able to come back and retake it.

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Holding a castle means nothing if it cannot stop an army from controlling everything else.

Stannis kept Mace Tyrell's army occupied at Storm's End throughout the war. And while part of that is Mace Tyrell wanting to take it easy rather than risk his forces, there's a good reason why he's regarded as loyal and would have plausible deniability. Breaking a siege means your enemy can recover, and if you have forces nearby they can leave the castle to attack and then retreat behind the walls afterward (in addition to Storm's End containing Robert's heirs, just as KL contained Joffrey and Tommen until the latter was moved to Rosby nearby).

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In the Russian Civil War there was no joining of ofrces analogous to the Tyrell-Lannister alliance.

The White Army was itself a big tent of loosely allied people of different ideologies united in their opposition to the Bolsheviks. They weren't especially coordinated, but by the same standard one would deny that the Axis powers were an alliance.

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Why would the Starks follow Renly and not Stannis? Mace does not have meta-knowledge like the readers do.

Because Renly planned for Stannis to be defeated & killed in battle.

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Jon Arryn is a plot device to set things up. After sacking KL the Lannisters had no other option besides backing Robert.

They didn't have to do any more than the Tyrells did. And if a rebellion occurred (as Oberyn attempted, and Balon briefly did), Tywin could figure that would be his chance to be on the winning side and get a reward.

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Renly has an even smaller chance. Never mind Renly bings no legitimacy.

Renly is a Baratheon, that's more legitimacy than any Tyrells have. And it's easier to win with both Mace & Renly's bannermen than just the former.

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Read my original comment again. I was describing the situation before the Blackwater, hence the use of present tense and "now".

You responded to an identical quote as one you had three paragraphs above with something entirely different and irrelevant. Prior to the Blackwater, the Lannisters had experienced some defeats at the hands of Robb, but Robb didn't have the capability of seizing & holding much land in the south, or any claim to the throne.

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Can you provide any textual evidence to make us believe that Renly knew about the incest?

We don't have any POVs in Renly's confidence. We know about all those other members of the Small Council I mentioned who knew about it. We know that after Ned told LF (who already knew) about it that LF's proposed plan was to temporarily accept Joffrey's legitimacy since they could later replace him with Renly. We know that Robert's bastard lived in Renly's castle, and it was the appearance of his bastards (and the legitimate Baratheons) that clued Ned in after only a brief period of time on the job. We also know that Jaime & Cersei were so indiscreet they were having sex with Robert still in the room at Darry (and had gotten caught just prior to that at Winterfell by Bran, thus requiring Bran to be defenestrated). I already noted that Renly was testing his Margaery scheme on Ned even after Sansa was betrothed to Joffrey, thus putting any potential children of Margaery (assuming she somehow married Robert despite the limitations on divorce) would be even further down the line of succession and opposed by both Lannisters & Starks if they tried to make a claim. We & Stannis also know that Renly's own marriage to Margaery is for show. Renly knowing (but pretending otherwise) fits all of that much better than him not knowing.

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If he did why had he not raised the issue before?

If he raises it before he's set up Robert with Margaery then the Tyrells could get nothing, and Stannis is next in line for the throne. Robert was already annoyed that Jon Arryn had gotten him to marry Cersei for the good of the realm, he's not going to listen to Renly or anyone else say the Tyrells need to substitute for the Lannisters. We've also got Stannis' reasoning for not doing so earlier (even though he would have more directly benefited from doing so earlier): it looks self-interested and he wanted an independent & credible voice backing him up before he tried to get Robert to junk the Lannisters. Stannis fled the capital first after Jon Arryn died, Renly did so after Ned rejected his plan to seize Joffrey (his & LF's plan both involve feigning loyalty to Joffrey to keep Stannis off the throne). Varys hid Gendry knowing that Cersei's incest made Robert's potential heirs all into threats (too bad for Barra it extended even to nearby females). I say that looks like the Baratheon brothers knew what the Lannisters would likely attempt & why.

9 hours ago, Lord Varys said:

Cersei whispering in Joff's ear. And that wouldn't have happened if Cersei had been set aside to be replaced by another queen

You've got a bit of a point there, but even if Marg is queen instead of Cersei, she's still Joffrey's mother. Edward III did not take kindly to his mother & Roger Mortimer overthrowing his father, and once he came of age he turned on them. This poses a big potential problem for either scheme Renly tested on Ned. Tywin was at least smart enough to know he had to get rid of Rhaegar's children in order for Robert's throne to be secure.

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in a scenario where Robert sets aside Cersei for Margaery he would be singularly obsessed with Margaery

If that scenario involves Cersei being accused of incest, I definitely agree. Robert would be fixated on erasing the image of himself as a cuckold via some legitimate children.

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And there he produced and walked over corpses

Killing Targaryens is entirely in character for Robert. Meddling with the laws of succession is less so, even if he might not personally care for them.

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Robert, he is the only one who could rule on his own succession.

And he's making clear he doesn't approve of Joffrey's succession? As I said, he indicated as much to Ned but it never occurred to him anything could be done about it.

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Ned would be obliged to please his king ... and Ned was already willing to cancel that betrothal when Robert dismissed him as Hand over the Targaryen issue.

Renly had no reason to expect that when he tested his scheme on Ned. He was instead hoping that Ned's credibility & friendship with Robert would bolster Margaery's chances with Robert. We also know that Ned already believed the Lannisters were responsible for poisoning Jon Arryn, throwing Bran out the window, and attempting to have Robert killed at the tourney. Renly doesn't know Ned "knows" all that.

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And the way things were in AGoT Ned would likely approve of Robert's decision to cut ties with the Lannisters even if setting aside Cersei would be highly unusual.

Setting aside a marriage made under the Seven without some legal cause is so unusual there's no precedent I'm aware of. Even for something as comparatively breakable as a betrothal (which Lyonel Baratheon fought a war over) Joffrey still needs an excuse about Ned's treason nullifying an agreement between him & Robert when setting aside Sansa for Margaery.

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Not to mention that it is almost certain that the incest and murder of Jon Arryn would unravel in all that, too.

Yeah, my view is that Renly's plan really depends on the revelation of incest to be viable.

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It was royal incest, the incest of the royal family. Up to Aerys II they were named Targaryens, but Robert is of the same blood, never mind his name.

People with Targaryen blood of other houses have never practiced incest. The justification for their incest is supposed to be that they aren't like the Westerosi: they've always practiced sibling marriage, they ride dragons, they have purple eyes & silver hair, they're less vulnerable to illness etc etc. It's not based on them being the royal family, since Aegon had married his sisters before even making any claim to be king of the seven kingdoms.

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1 hour ago, FictionIsntReal said:

You've got a bit of a point there, but even if Marg is queen instead of Cersei, she's still Joffrey's mother. Edward III did not take kindly to his mother & Roger Mortimer overthrowing his father, and once he came of age he turned on them. This poses a big potential problem for either scheme Renly tested on Ned. Tywin was at least smart enough to know he had to get rid of Rhaegar's children in order for Robert's throne to be secure.

Joffrey isn't Edward III, and neither Robert nor Renly are Roger Mortimer. It his plan had come to fruition then Renly would have been the least of Joffrey's - or the Lannister's concern - Robert would be the one spitting on the his mother, the (former) queen Cersei. That Joff would likely also do away with Renly if he had punished his father for his transgressions and/or seized the throne against any of Margaery's children is clear ... but that wouldn't be the priority.

Robert's throne wasn't secured by murdering Rhaegar's children ... and Tywin didn't do that for Robert, he did it to prove he had forsaken the dragons for the stag. Robert approved but he did not profit from this butchery.

In fact, the true danger to Robert's reign was always Viserys III - he was old enough to know his father and mother and elder brother. Rhaenys and Aegon could have been raised as Robert's wards, viewing him as their rightful king, etc. Doesn't mean they wouldn't have been any danger ... but a danger that could be controlled.

1 hour ago, FictionIsntReal said:

If that scenario involves Cersei being accused of incest, I definitely agree. Robert would be fixated on erasing the image of himself as a cuckold via some legitimate children.

Not just that - the Margaery involving 'Queen Margaery' rested on the idea that Robert would be obsessed with Margaery the way he was obsessed with Lyanna ... and that means Robert would do anything to be with her, even burn the world. Like he did when Lya was taken from him.

In a very real sense Robert Baratheon is a force of nature - if he put his mind to it he could do pretty much everything in the military and destroying department.

And whoever and whatever was in his way in this task would pay the price for it, even his own children and other kin.

I mean, knowing Robert he would at first try to retire Cersei without a war and stuff ... but if the Lannisters would behave he would find a way to do it, like Henry VIII did.

1 hour ago, FictionIsntReal said:

Killing Targaryens is entirely in character for Robert. Meddling with the laws of succession is less so, even if he might not personally care for them.

He messed with them big time when he made himself king.

But, of course, Joff is sort of a momma's boy, but he also wants the love of his father, the cool warrior-king. And he also looks down on his mother, the weak woman, as shown when he has Ned executed. So if Joff realized his father would marry Margaery Tyrell no matter what - and rid himself of Cersei one way or the other - chances are not that bad that he would side with his father. Both because he wanted his love and respect ... and because he wanted to remain the Heir Apparent.

If Joff dared to object to such a marriage and publicly criticized or opposed his father then this could be construed as treason/disobedience/rebellion and that's all the pretext Robert would need to disinherit Joffrey.

Doesn't mean Joff would ever love his half-siblings by Margaery. But it also doesn't mean he would have to hate them.

1 hour ago, FictionIsntReal said:

And he's making clear he doesn't approve of Joffrey's succession? As I said, he indicated as much to Ned but it never occurred to him anything could be done about it.

Robert thinks about the fact that Joff would suck as king ... but why should he change the succession. Joff hasn't done anything yet that's truly unforgivable ... and Robert doesn't like to rock the boat. He believes the Lannisters are his buddies and he likes that Tywin gives him all the loans he wants. And he doesn't exactly plan to die tomorrow - Joff would only become a problem when he sits the throne, if he were to die early, there would be no problem.

And of course Robert wanted his firstborn son to succeed him. That's why Joff was made Heir Apparent some time after his birth. And on his deathbed the main reason why he sticks with Joff is that he wants Ned to rule - in a very real sense Robert makes Ned the next king. He hands him the Realm by making him Lord Regent and Protector of the Realm, and the point of that is that Ned will be both a much better ruler than Robert and also the kind of man who could still mold Joffrey into a king who would not completely suck.

1 hour ago, FictionIsntReal said:

Renly had no reason to expect that when he tested his scheme on Ned. He was instead hoping that Ned's credibility & friendship with Robert would bolster Margaery's chances with Robert. We also know that Ned already believed the Lannisters were responsible for poisoning Jon Arryn, throwing Bran out the window, and attempting to have Robert killed at the tourney. Renly doesn't know Ned "knows" all that.

Nah, you are mistaken there. Renly doesn't want Ned's help with the Margaery plan - he never tells him about that, etc. All he needed Ned for, all he wanted from Ned is to confirm that Margaery resembled Lyanna, so Renly could make Robert obsessed with her. Renly's plan wasn't political in the sense that he wanted to create an anti-Lannister coalition at court to convince Robert he should take a Tyrell bride - he wanted Robert infatuated with Margaery, mad with love, so that he could then turn that into a weapon against Cersei by convincing Robert that he could make Margaery his queen.

If Renly wanted Ned's help he and Loras would have approached Ned about that at a point. Instead, Renly is so subtle that Ned doesn't even suspect that Renly was looking for a new bride for Robert ... which is something Renly would or should have indicated if he had wanted Ned on board. After all, Renly must have known how much bad blood was there between Ned and the Lannisters - recently and since the Rebellion - so there is really no reason to assume that he was 'waiting for the right moment' there.

1 hour ago, FictionIsntReal said:

Setting aside a marriage made under the Seven without some legal cause is so unusual there's no precedent I'm aware of. Even for something as comparatively breakable as a betrothal (which Lyonel Baratheon fought a war over) Joffrey still needs an excuse about Ned's treason nullifying an agreement between him & Robert when setting aside Sansa for Margaery.

We do not have a historical precedent for Andal kings setting aside wives, but First Men kings did do it ... but, more importantly, Renly wanted Robert to do it (and didn't think it impossible or a huge problem, apparently) and Cersei feared Robert might do it, as she reveals to Jaime back at Winterfell.

We can assume that this might have been difficult, especially with the queen in question being Tywin's daughter, but it is clear that people thought it could work, meaning they would either come up with some pretext or just have Robert command that this be done. The Iron Throne does control the High Septon and the Faith, after all.

1 hour ago, FictionIsntReal said:

Yeah, my view is that Renly's plan really depends on the revelation of incest to be viable.

Nope, it is quite clear that Renly had no clue about the incest. None of his actions in AGoT and ACoK make sense if we assume that he knew or suspected that Cersei's children weren't Robert's.

1 hour ago, FictionIsntReal said:

People with Targaryen blood of other houses have never practiced incest. The justification for their incest is supposed to be that they aren't like the Westerosi: they've always practiced sibling marriage, they ride dragons, they have purple eyes & silver hair, they're less vulnerable to illness etc etc. It's not based on them being the royal family, since Aegon had married his sisters before even making any claim to be king of the seven kingdoms.

The Baratheons are Targaryens, too. They are of the same blood, through male and female line (if we believe Orys Baratheon was Lord Aerion's son). Robert has the Targaryen blood and exactly the same power and authority the Targaryen kings before him had ... especially since those kings were lacking dragons. I'm not saying people would cheer such a decision, but nobody could say that the guy sitting on Aegon the Conqueror's throne couldn't practice incest. That makes no sense, especially since Robert could also claim he could be a dragonrider if there were still any dragons around.

As a practice the Targaryen incest is royal incest in Westeros, since it is limited to members of the royal family. We don't get Velaryon incest, for instance, despite the fact that they are dragonriders, too, with Laenor and Laena and their children. It is associated with the royal family, and thus Robert could have followed in their footsteps if he wanted to.

I mean, Jaime even suggests that he and Cersei do it, following the Targaryen example. With them it would be much harder because they cannot claim to be the blood of the dragon. But Robert can - he is the blood of the dragon.

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Posted (edited)
1 hour ago, FictionIsntReal said:

He only decided to do so after Robb had already been fighting the Lannisters (and winning).

Your timeline is incorrect.

1 hour ago, FictionIsntReal said:

What time period are we talking about here?

After Oxcross, before Blackwater.

1 hour ago, FictionIsntReal said:

Robert destroyed Rhaegar's army at the Trident, but Ned still had to rush forces to KL because he didn't think it was "worthless".

Robb wasn't trying to seat himself on the Iron Throne.

1 hour ago, FictionIsntReal said:

Everyone is ignorant of strategy in Westerosi war other than you it seems.

Probably. George's writnig is full of such mistakes. 

1 hour ago, FictionIsntReal said:

MacArthur had to abandon the Phillipines even though he really didn't want to and had made promises, but he ultimately was able to come back and retake it.

Another spurious analogy.

1 hour ago, FictionIsntReal said:

Stannis kept Mace Tyrell's army occupied at Storm's End throughout the war.

Because George doesn't understand why sieges happen. 

1 hour ago, FictionIsntReal said:

The White Army was itself a big tent of loosely allied people of different ideologies united in their opposition to the Bolsheviks.

When did an undefeated faction bigger than the Bolsheviks join them ? Your cmoparisons don't make any sense.

1 hour ago, FictionIsntReal said:

The White Army was itself a big tent of loosely allied people of different ideologies united in their opposition to the Bolsheviks.

How will Renly defeat and kill Stannis if the Starks and Tullies are following him? 

1 hour ago, FictionIsntReal said:

And if a rebellion occurred (as Oberyn attempted, and Balon briefly did), Tywin could figure that would be his chance to be on the winning side and get a reward.

Tywin Lannister had nowhere to go. Who is going to reward him? The exiled Targaryens who family he murdered?

1 hour ago, FictionIsntReal said:

Renly is a Baratheon, that's more legitimacy than any Tyrells have.

Renly is a Baratheon without Robert's alliance.

1 hour ago, FictionIsntReal said:

And it's easier to win with both Mace & Renly's bannermen than just the former.

Why should Mace put Renly on the throne? Mace can get the same result without fighting any of Renly's battles.

1 hour ago, FictionIsntReal said:

Prior to the Blackwater, the Lannisters had experienced some defeats at the hands of Robb, but Robb didn't have the capability of seizing & holding much land in the south, or any claim to the throne

Robb doesn't have to claim the throne to ruin the Lannisters.

1 hour ago, FictionIsntReal said:

If he raises it before he's set up Robert with Margaery then the Tyrells could get nothing, and Stannis is next in line for the throne. Robert was already annoyed that Jon Arryn had gotten him to marry Cersei for the good of the realm, he's not going to listen to Renly or anyone else say the Tyrells need to substitute for the Lannisters. We've also got Stannis' reasoning for not doing so earlier (even though he would have more directly benefited from doing so earlier): it looks self-interested and he wanted an independent & credible voice backing him up before he tried to get Robert to junk the Lannisters. Stannis fled the capital first after Jon Arryn died, Renly did so after Ned rejected his plan to seize Joffrey (his & LF's plan both involve feigning loyalty to Joffrey to keep Stannis off the throne). Varys hid Gendry knowing that Cersei's incest made Robert's potential heirs all into threats (too bad for Barra it extended even to nearby females). I say that looks like the Baratheon brothers knew what the Lannisters would likely attempt & why.

This doesn't explain how Renly knew about the incest. If he knew about Joffrey's origins he would not have tried to prop up a regency after Robert died.

 

Edited by saltedmalted

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On 3/12/2021 at 4:48 PM, Lord Varys said:

That is a kind of weird line of argumentation since there is actually only a very low chance that the Tyrells have already acquired a lot of Florent blood - not necessarily directly, since there were are no known marriages between the two houses, but indirectly by marrying women from other houses who do have Florent ancestors.

In the end this whole thing boils down to the Florents (still) thinking Highgarden is theirs by right because back during the Conquest the Lord Florent there had some unspecified close blood ties to the last Gardener king. If Lord Alester is descended from such a relation of King Mern in direct male line then it makes sense that the Florents still fancy themselves the rightful heirs of the Reach ... but that would have to do nothing with the question whether the Tyrells also acquired some (more) Florent blood in the meantime or not.

The bottom line is: If Stannis had been the first to offer Mace a deal - like marrying Shireen to Willas or even setting aside Selyse in favor of Margaery or some other Tyrell woman - then Mace would have likely accepted after Renly's death.

He doesn't really have more love for the Lannisters than he has for Stannis. The reason this didn't happen is because Stannis never thought about/bothered to consider to make such an offer. And it might very well be that his experience at Storm's End played a role in that decision.

But the idea that Mace actually fears or deeply loathes Stannis is so far unsupported.

I actually don't think Mace Tyrell fears much, nor do the other members in his family. They have nerves of steel considering how well they played everyone at Joffrey's wedding feast.

It's not about blood, it's about power and influence. Lady Olenna does not want the Florents to gain any more power or influence over the Reach, which is what would likely happen if Selyse becomes queen. 

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On 3/13/2021 at 7:32 PM, FictionIsntReal said:

Why is this being relitigated? I thought this ended when I pointed out that the official app said it was the wine that was poisoned.

 

The app is hardly official. And it doesn't overrule the facts in the text.

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On 3/14/2021 at 10:34 AM, Lightoftheast said:

Rhea isn't Alerie's mother. She's younger than Alerei. Rhea Florent is Lord Hightower's fourth wife. 

Tyrells would surely have Florent blood by indirect marriages unless Florents were marrying all their daughters outside the Reach.

Ah, correct. I read the chart wrong.

Yes, I'm sure there is Florent blood swirling around somewhere in House Tyrell, but it's not about blood. It's about power and influence. Lady Olenna wants to marginalize the Florents in the Reach. Queen Selyse would work to subvert that.

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On 3/16/2021 at 3:00 PM, John Suburbs said:

It's not about blood, it's about power and influence. Lady Olenna does not want the Florents to gain any more power or influence over the Reach, which is what would likely happen if Selyse becomes queen. 

There is no indication that Olenna Redwyne ever gave Selyse Florent a thought ... and we all know she had nothing to do with Renly's plans to make Margaery Robert's queen nor Mace's and Loras' decision to crown Renly and marry him to Margaery.

A King Stannis is nowhere on the table in any of those scenarios since Renly's friends never expected Stannis to proclaim himself king.

And to be honest - Selyse Florent was Robert's sister-in-law for over a decade ... and nothing happened to strengthen the position of the Florents in the Reach. Instead, Loras Tyrell ended up as the squire of Robert's youngest brother, Lord Renly - not some Florent boy.

A mere look at Stannis' marriage would have been enough to indicate any savvy political observer that the Florents would never play an important role at the court a hypothetical King Stannis - because Stannis' marriage basically only exists on paper. The man served at court throughout Robert's reign but had his wife on daughter reside on Dragonstone. They lived separate and Stannis visited with them very infrequently.

Lord Alester Florent clearly doesn't care much about Selyse or even Axell considering he originally backed 'King Renly' - which is another hint that Selyse Florent was unable to secure an patronage/favors for her family while she was Robert's sister-in-law.

In light of the fact that Stannis clearly has no affection for Selyse, that she failed to do her duty and give him a son, people could expect a King Stannis to be even more open to the idea of putting Selyse aside in favor of a new wife than Renly and Loras thought Robert would be.

And that was my point - if Stannis had offered Shireen's hand to Willas Tyrell and if he had offered to set aside Selyse for Margaery or another Tyrell relation, and if this offer had reached Highgarden before Littlefinger showed up there ... then chances would have been very good that Mace Tyrell would have accepted this deal. Simply because he wouldn't have expected that the Lannisters would make a similar offer ... and if they had already come to an understanding by the time Littlefinger showed up (and he most likely wouldn't have come if Varys had heard that the Tyrells were already negotiating with Stannis) then things would have likely gone for him the way they did when Lucerys Velaryon showed up at Storm's End.

Because, as a I said already - the Lannisters are not popular in the Reach, and Loras Tyrell was nearly murdered by one of Tywin's senior henchmen back in AGoT. Renly and the Tyrells wanted to cast down Joffrey and destroy the Lannisters government when they started their campaign for the Iron Throne. There was potential there for an alliance Stannis could have exploited if he had been willing to compromise some more.

There is no indication that his decision not to make such an offer was based on his correct assessment of the political situation - it wasn't. If he had given matters a thought he should have considered that not securing the loyalty of Highgarden could result in them siding with the Lannisters if they made a better offer - and that's what happened.

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On 3/15/2021 at 10:33 PM, Lord Varys said:

Joffrey isn't Edward III

Indeed, Edward III was known for being forgiving!

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It his plan had come to fruition then Renly would have been the least of Joffrey's - or the Lannister's concern

Renly isn't Isabella or Mortimer in that scenario; Margaery Tyrell is the marital usurper. And the Tyrells resorted to assassinating Joffrey to protect Margaery even without him having anything to hold against her at that point!

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Robert's throne wasn't secured by murdering Rhaegar's children ... and Tywin didn't do that for Robert, he did it to prove he had forsaken the dragons for the stag. Robert approved but he did not profit from this butchery.

We do just have Tywin's word that Robert needed it even if he couldn't order it. But we also have Robert himself justifying Jaime's assassination of Aerys by noting that somebody had to do it. And we have Oberyn attempting to raise Dorne for Viserys, Doran's secret marriage alliance with Viserys and Illyrio's own plot with the surviving Targaryens. They all illustrate that surviving Targaryens are a threat to Robert's regime. Similarly, Aegon II was right to regard Aegon III's survival as a threat to his own.

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Viserys III - he was old enough to know his father and mother and elder brother

Joffrey is also old enough.

[the way he was obsessed with Lyanna ... and that means Robert would do anything to be with her, even burn the world. Like he did when Lya was taken from him]
But Robert didn't "burn the world" when Lyanna disappeared. It was Brandon who went south to KL and challenged Rhaegar. Robert, for all his self-conception as a hero, didn't do anything until Aerys demanded Jon Arryn take the heads of his wards.

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if the Lannisters would behave he would find a way to do it, like Henry VIII did

Robert isn't really an institutional reformer.

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He messed with them big time when he made himself king.

He only declared himself to be such around the time of the Trident. With Aerys & Rhaegar both ostensibly dedicated to the proposition that Robert needs to die for being connected to the Starks, he's not very well going to owe fealty to either of them. And once they've both been ruled out, we have the problem we've been discussing of how he can possibly trust any of their sons if they get installed after Robert has killed or forced an abdication of the king & prince. If both Aerys & Rhaegar's lines are barred from the throne, then Robert can claim the throne by both conquest & descent (although admittedly the Iron Law is supposed to exclude his claim from a female line).

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he also wants the love of his father, the cool warrior-king

I know we've got quotes about that to explain the catspaw, but we never see any such direct evidence from Joffrey (and even that catspaw incident couldn't have possibly gotten Joffrey any love from Robert). After Joffrey tried showing off the kittens he cut out of a cat to Robert, they really don't seem to have had much to do with each other. Some of Joffrey's resentment of his mother is thus an artifact of her being effectively his only parent.

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So if Joff realized his father would marry Margaery Tyrell no matter what - and rid himself of Cersei one way or the other - chances are not that bad that he would side with his father

That's definitely what we'd expect from the flatterers at court like LF, but Joffrey is no natural politician sucking up to authority to win favor. Even normal children typically have misgivings about step-parents (and we see some justification in how Catelyn & Alicent regarded their husband's other children), and Joffrey is far worse than normal.

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Both because he wanted his love and respect ... and because he wanted to remain the Heir Apparent.

He views himself as entitled to rule, not being required to do anything to deserve it.

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If Joff dared to object to such a marriage and publicly criticized or opposed his father then this could be construed as treason/disobedience/rebellion and that's all the pretext Robert would need to disinherit Joffrey.

Daeron II publicly opposed Aegon IV, but was never actually disinherited even if the Unworthy might have really wanted to. And of course IV never set aside his marriage to his hated sister like some think would be easy to do, instead he schemed to have Morgil accuse her of adultery.

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Joff hasn't done anything yet that's truly unforgivable

Has he in the scenario where Robert somehow replaces Cersei with Margaery without the revelation of incestuous adultery?

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if he were to die early, there would be no problem

How can anyone bank on that, and how much benefit do the Tyrells get if an early death means Tommen inherits instead?

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And of course Robert wanted his firstborn son to succeed him. That's why Joff was made Heir Apparent some time after his birth.

I think that's just a default thing which didn't require Robert to make any decision. Unlike, say, granting Dragonstone to Stannis.

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And on his deathbed the main reason why he sticks with Joff is that he wants Ned to rule - in a very real sense Robert makes Ned the next king

Robert wants Ned as regent, but he doesn't give any "reason why he sticks with Joff". Robert doesn't consider any other possibility.

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Renly doesn't want Ned's help with the Margaery plan - he never tells him about that, etc

What would he say, "I'm going to replace Cersei & the Lannisters with Margaery & the Tyrells because her brother is my boyfriend"? There isn't even a legal procedure to replace a valid marriage with a new one (even one like Doran Martell's where a spouse has been absent for years), so at that point he could only claim he was scheming to make Margaery into Robert's mistress.

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Renly's plan wasn't political in the sense that he wanted to create an anti-Lannister coalition at court

Mace Tyrell isn't going to agree to let his only daughter be used this way unless he expects House Tyrell to get a high place in court. And once Robert alienates the Lannisters, he's really going to have to rely on someone else to fill Tywin's shoes.

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After all, Renly must have known how much bad blood was there between Ned and the Lannisters - recently and since the Rebellion - so there is really no reason to assume that he was 'waiting for the right moment' there.

Margaery can't marry Robert while he's married to Cersei, but the twincest would end that marriage. Renly doesn't know how much Ned knows about that, and he's not going to make any claims about it prior to Robert even meeting Margaery so as to ensure she's going to be the one to replace Cersei.

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We do not have a historical precedent for Andal kings setting aside wives

This is highly relevant because marriage is a sacrament under the Seven, and it's on that basis the Sparrows can later put Cersei & Margaery on trial.

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Renly wanted Robert to do it (and didn't think it impossible or a huge problem, apparently

If he could convince Robert of the incest, indeed it wouldn't be.

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and Cersei feared Robert might do it, as she reveals to Jaime back at Winterfell

They discuss the death of Jon Arryn, whom Pycelle ensured would die when he saw from Cersei's face that she feared his knowledge of her incest. In the same conversation she worried that Lysa Arryn might come to Robert with the knowledge she'd gotten from her poisoned husband and Robert would believe it due to his dislike for her. They also note that Ned Stark is a bigger problem than Robert's brothers because (as Stannis later noted) Robert would be more likely to listen to Ned.

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just have Robert command that this be done. The Iron Throne does control the High Septon and the Faith, after all.

Maegor had to kill a number of High Septons in order to overrule the Faith on marriage, and he died with them still in revolt. When Baelor the Blessed wanted to set aside his marrige, it was on the grounds that he had never consummated it rather than because he was king and could simply proclaim it. When Naerys asked Aegon IV to dissolve their marriage, it was on the grounds that she wanted to take a septa's vow of celibacy (as Fireball's wife would do) rather than because he simply had the authority to dissolve it himself.

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Nope, it is quite clear that Renly had no clue about the incest. None of his actions in AGoT and ACoK make sense if we assume that he knew or suspected that Cersei's children weren't Robert's.

Which actions don't make sense? They make sense to me, as long as you assume he doesn't want Stannis on the throne.

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if we believe Orys Baratheon was Lord Aerion's son

A popular theory, but never official, and thus the Baratheons never practiced incest. They even took the Durrandon sigil & words to indicate continuity with an Andal house.

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Robert has the Targaryen blood and exactly the same power and authority the Targaryen kings before him had

Robert's hold on the realm is shakier than most prior kings, seeing as how there are still rival claimants in Essos. You would have to trace his lineage all the way back to Aegon IV to get the most recent sibling marriage. Robert attained the throne by overthrowing a mad king whose madness has been blamed on being a product of incest (and whose surviving heir has been said to have inherited some of that). He started off his reign by marrying the daughter of a Lord Paramount rather than a Targaryen, Baratheon or even Velaryon.

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especially since those kings were lacking dragons

They had the legitimacy of longstanding tenure, unlike Robert, and they shifted relatively toward exogamy after the Dance. The reason Robert has any Targaryen ancestry is because Aegon IV was arranging exogamous betrothals to help shore up his political support (and his failure led him to attempt to birth dragons at Summerhall).

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We don't get Velaryon incest, for instance, despite the fact that they are dragonriders, too, with Laenor and Laena and their children

Laenor & Laena were both children of Rhaenys Targaryen. I think all the "Velaryon" dragonriders were children of Rhaenys or Rhaenyra.

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I mean, Jaime even suggests that he and Cersei do it, following the Targaryen example.

We're supposed to think he's dumb for this. Cersei tells him so, and both Cat & Stannis indicate to us that the Westerosi regard the spawn of incest as abominations.

On 3/15/2021 at 10:37 PM, saltedmalted said:
Your timeline is incorrect.
 

After Oxcross, before Blackwater.

 

Robb routed the Lannisters at Oxcross.

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 Robb wasn't trying to seat himself on the Iron Throne.

We've been talking about why the Lannisters want to hold KL against Stannis & Renly, and why Mace would want to marry his daughter to the Lannisters who hold it. None of these people regard KL as worthless, even if Robb has no intention of ever taking it himself. Robb does rightly regard it as a real blow to his cause that the Lannisters win at Blackwater (although I think he's mistaken to blame Edmure for delaying Tywin long enough to intervene).

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Probably. George's writnig is full of such mistakes.

I have to credit that as fair since I regard that bit with Edmure as one such mistake :)

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Another spurious analogy.

How is it spurious? He retreated to a defensible position, then came back victoriously.

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When did an undefeated faction bigger than the Bolsheviks join them ?

The Bolsheviks, despite their name, had been a minority political faction, and the White forces were supported by external powers like Japan, the UK and even the Czechoslovak Legion (which had gotten stranded inside Russia during WW1).

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How will Renly defeat and kill Stannis if the Starks and Tullies are following him?

You're responding to the same quote twice in a row again. And Renly was about to battle Stannis outside Storm's End (something he was forced to do after Stannis besieged it), before any Starks or Tully's could reach there.

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Tywin Lannister had nowhere to go. Who is going to reward him? The exiled Targaryens who family he murdered?

Mace Tyrell is pragmatic enough to support a former enemy (although it might be difficult for the Targaryens & Martells to swallow). And the wealth of both houses/regions together is a formidable enough combination to oppose the STAB bloc. If really necessary, Tywin can blame some subordinates for what happened in the sack, provided they're dead before they can testify to his responsibility (or are willing to take a bribe and the fall for someone else).

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 Renly is a Baratheon without Robert's alliance.

He wasn't opposed by any of the STAB bloc and he was already a political ally of the Tyrells before he angled for the crown himself.

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Why should Mace put Renly on the throne? Mace can get the same result without fighting any of Renly's battles.

How is he going to get a grandson on the throne?

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Robb doesn't have to claim the throne to ruin the Lannisters.

In a hypothetical where he seized all but the Crownlands, they wouldn't be able to withstand him, but like I said he doesn't have the capability of doing anything near that.

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This doesn't explain how Renly knew about the incest. If he knew about Joffrey's origins he would not have tried to prop up a regency after Robert died.

Littlefinger knows about it, and he suggests Ned do exactly that after Ned discusses said incest! Revealing the incest right then would have put Stannis on the throne, without the Tyrell marriage alliance Renly had been trying to arrange (the Florents are actually rivals of the Tyrells). Littlefinger & Renly had gotten along prior to Robert's death, their suggestions after Robert's death are rather similar, and after Renly's death LF also angles to wed the crown to the Tyrells.

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Because George doesn't understand why sieges happen.

Why do sieges happen?

On 3/16/2021 at 9:06 AM, John Suburbs said:

The app is hardly official.

Official is exactly what it is. And Ran had to confirm details with GRRM when making it.

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And it doesn't overrule the facts in the text.


What do you mean "overrule the facts in the text"? There's nothing to overrule.

1 hour ago, Lord Varys said:

A mere look at Stannis' marriage would have been enough to indicate any savvy political observer that the Florents would never play an important role at the court a hypothetical King Stannis

The Florents actually did play a big role in his court after he declared himself king. And it didn't require anything completely unforeseeable. We also know that the Lannisters have an important role in Robert's court even though his relationship with Cersei is even worse than Stannis' is with his wife.

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if Stannis had offered Shireen's hand to Willas Tyrell and if he had offered to set aside Selyse for Margaery or another Tyrell relation

There's no legal way to do that unless he embraces the Moonboy-fathered-Shireen theory.

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There was potential there for an alliance Stannis could have exploited if he had been willing to compromise some more.

What kind of compromise could he have made?

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8 minutes ago, FictionIsntReal said:

Indeed, Edward III was known for being forgiving!

Renly isn't Isabella or Mortimer in that scenario; Margaery Tyrell is the marital usurper. And the Tyrells resorted to assassinating Joffrey to protect Margaery even without him having anything to hold against her at that point!

That doesn't address my point - I took issue with you comparing the settings.

8 minutes ago, FictionIsntReal said:

We do just have Tywin's word that Robert needed it even if he couldn't order it. But we also have Robert himself justifying Jaime's assassination of Aerys by noting that somebody had to do it. And we have Oberyn attempting to raise Dorne for Viserys, Doran's secret marriage alliance with Viserys and Illyrio's own plot with the surviving Targaryens. They all illustrate that surviving Targaryens are a threat to Robert's regime. Similarly, Aegon II was right to regard Aegon III's survival as a threat to his own.

This doesn't address my point, either - I just pointed out that you are wrong that Robert didn't need dead Targaryen children to take the throne. Tywin could have captured them ... and Robert would still get the throne.

8 minutes ago, FictionIsntReal said:

Joffrey is also old enough.

Sure enough, but there is no guarantee that Margaery and her family could not win him to their side during the years Margaery would be married to Robert. Cersei and her family would be out of the picture, and Joff might not be the kind of guy who fuels his rage for decades.

8 minutes ago, FictionIsntReal said:

[the way he was obsessed with Lyanna ... and that means Robert would do anything to be with her, even burn the world. Like he did when Lya was taken from him]
But Robert didn't "burn the world" when Lyanna disappeared. It was Brandon who went south to KL and challenged Rhaegar. Robert, for all his self-conception as a hero, didn't do anything until Aerys demanded Jon Arryn take the heads of his wards.

Of course Robert burned the world - he led the Rebellion. Brandon just died. He burned nothing. And it is quite clear that Robert's entire motivation in the thing goes back to the Lya issue. The Aerys command was what triggered Jon Arryn, but Robert started to loathe Rhaegar after Harrenhal and continued to hate him after the abduction. He didn't hate the Targaryens because of Aerys II but because of Rhaegar.

8 minutes ago, FictionIsntReal said:

Robert isn't really an institutional reformer.

Neither was Henry VIII. But he had Thomas Cromwell ... and Robert could have Littlefinger, say.

8 minutes ago, FictionIsntReal said:

He only declared himself to be such around the time of the Trident. With Aerys & Rhaegar both ostensibly dedicated to the proposition that Robert needs to die for being connected to the Starks, he's not very well going to owe fealty to either of them. And once they've both been ruled out, we have the problem we've been discussing of how he can possibly trust any of their sons if they get installed after Robert has killed or forced an abdication of the king & prince. If both Aerys & Rhaegar's lines are barred from the throne, then Robert can claim the throne by both conquest & descent (although admittedly the Iron Law is supposed to exclude his claim from a female line).

Stop dancing around - Aerys II's legal heir after his death was Viserys III. He was the rightful king, and Robert usurped the throne. Meaning he messed with the line of succession big time as I said.

8 minutes ago, FictionIsntReal said:

I know we've got quotes about that to explain the catspaw, but we never see any such direct evidence from Joffrey (and even that catspaw incident couldn't have possibly gotten Joffrey any love from Robert). After Joffrey tried showing off the kittens he cut out of a cat to Robert, they really don't seem to have had much to do with each other. Some of Joffrey's resentment of his mother is thus an artifact of her being effectively his only parent.

It isn't just the catspaw incident - which is clear enough to anyone immune to mad conspiracy theories - it is the way Joff generally idolizes his dad. He wants to show Sansa the place where Robert slew Rhaegar, he is deeply hurt when his father chastises him in public after Arya disarmed him, he goes hunting with his father, he tries to put Tywin in his place by citing his father's bravery and accusing Tywin of cowardice, etc.

Even the execution of Ned shows Joffrey trying to channel his inner Robert, doing something he thinks a man like his father would (want him to) do. He is dead wrong there, of course, but that doesn't change the fact that Joffrey wants to be loved by Robert.

8 minutes ago, FictionIsntReal said:

That's definitely what we'd expect from the flatterers at court like LF, but Joffrey is no natural politician sucking up to authority to win favor. Even normal children typically have misgivings about step-parents (and we see some justification in how Catelyn & Alicent regarded their husband's other children), and Joffrey is far worse than normal.

Joff would be somewhat older by the time the Margaery wedding would take place - she would have to come to court, would have to woo the king, would have to get him to the point that he wanted to marry her, etc. And then they would have to get rid of Cersei, etc. it could take months, possibly years ... like with Henry VIII and Anne Boleyn.

And that means he might be a little bit more savvy ... especially if his father were to show no mercy in the pursuit of this great matter.

8 minutes ago, FictionIsntReal said:

Daeron II publicly opposed Aegon IV, but was never actually disinherited even if the Unworthy might have really wanted to. And of course IV never set aside his marriage to his hated sister like some think would be easy to do, instead he schemed to have Morgil accuse her of adultery.

That has nothing to do with anything - Robert is the king, and like Aegon IV and Aerys II he could have disinherited his son to name another heir. Especially if said son turned out to be ungrateful or even a traitor.

8 minutes ago, FictionIsntReal said:

Has he in the scenario where Robert somehow replaces Cersei with Margaery without the revelation of incestuous adultery?

If he were to resist the king's new marriage, refused to acknowledge Margaery as his new mother and queen, publicly spoke against her and her children, etc. he quickly could end up in such a position.

If he did nothing and behaved like Aegon III during the Regency then Robert wouldn't care about him, of course. But we could not expect that of Joffrey.

8 minutes ago, FictionIsntReal said:

How can anyone bank on that, and how much benefit do the Tyrells get if an early death means Tommen inherits instead?

The Tyrells would have a queen at Robert's side ... and that's all they wanted at that point. Or rather - all Renly wanted, who was the architect of this plan.

And to be sure - both Joff and Tommen could also be betrothed to Tyrells if push came to shove - Garlan is likely to have children soon, and there are all those cousins floating around.

8 minutes ago, FictionIsntReal said:

I think that's just a default thing which didn't require Robert to make any decision. Unlike, say, granting Dragonstone to Stannis.

Nope, we see it again and again in FaB that the Heir Apparent is named and formally installed - even if he is the firstborn son of a monarch. And Robert's succession was clear before he dictated his last will. Joff was already his heir, that's why he didn't name him heir then.

8 minutes ago, FictionIsntReal said:

Robert wants Ned as regent, but he doesn't give any "reason why he sticks with Joff". Robert doesn't consider any other possibility.

Because he basically hands the kingdom to Ned. He dwells on how good a ruler Ned will be now compared to Robert himself, and he finds solace in the fact that he did this one thing right - handing the reins of power to Ned.

It is very interesting to wonder what Robert would have done had Ned told him the truth then and there ... right now I actually think what Robert would have said then after he had recovered from the shock and betrayal is that he would hand the crown and throne to Ned now, passing over both his brothers and any other relations because - and he established earlier - he honestly thinks Jon and, especially, Ned would have been better kings than he was.

8 minutes ago, FictionIsntReal said:

What would he say, "I'm going to replace Cersei & the Lannisters with Margaery & the Tyrells because her brother is my boyfriend"? There isn't even a legal procedure to replace a valid marriage with a new one (even one like Doran Martell's where a spouse has been absent for years), so at that point he could only claim he was scheming to make Margaery into Robert's mistress.

He could certainly say something like that, minus the boyfriend stuff. And it is not that he was that secret about this thing, either. Stannis knows that Renly wanted to make Margaery Robert's queen ... and he wasn't even at court during AGoT.

8 minutes ago, FictionIsntReal said:

Mace Tyrell isn't going to agree to let his only daughter be used this way unless he expects House Tyrell to get a high place in court. And once Robert alienates the Lannisters, he's really going to have to rely on someone else to fill Tywin's shoes.

Mace Tyrell's favorite son is Loras Tyrell, and apparently Loras and Renly believed Mace would do exactly that - that's why Renly had Loras write letters to Highgarden saying that Mace should send Margaery to court to woo Robert.

Ned could easily enough have filled Tywin's shoes - but Renly made no effort to get him onboard.

8 minutes ago, FictionIsntReal said:

Margaery can't marry Robert while he's married to Cersei, but the twincest would end that marriage. Renly doesn't know how much Ned knows about that, and he's not going to make any claims about it prior to Robert even meeting Margaery so as to ensure she's going to be the one to replace Cersei.

Renly doesn't know about the twincest. You have to accept that because it is an established fact in the books. And Renly believes he can still make Margaery Robert's new queen.

8 minutes ago, FictionIsntReal said:

This is highly relevant because marriage is a sacrament under the Seven, and it's on that basis the Sparrows can later put Cersei & Margaery on trial.

There are ways to set aside wives, obviously - else Renly wouldn't have schemed what he schemed and Cersei wouldn't have been afraid.

8 minutes ago, FictionIsntReal said:

They discuss the death of Jon Arryn, whom Pycelle ensured would die when he saw from Cersei's face that she feared his knowledge of her incest. In the same conversation she worried that Lysa Arryn might come to Robert with the knowledge she'd gotten from her poisoned husband and Robert would believe it due to his dislike for her. They also note that Ned Stark is a bigger problem than Robert's brothers because (as Stannis later noted) Robert would be more likely to listen to Ned.

What is relevant there is this:

Quote

"Oh, I don't deny he's loyal to Robert, that's obvious. What happens when Robert dies and Joff takes the throne? And the sooner that comes to pass, the safer we'll all be. My husband grows more restless every day. Having Stark beside him will only make him worse. He's still in love with the sister, the insipid little dead sixteen-year-old. How long till he decides to put me aside for some new Lyanna?"

This makes it perfectly clear that Cersei Lannister fears that Robert is going to (effectively) divorce her for a new Lyanna - which is exactly what Renly plans.

8 minutes ago, FictionIsntReal said:

Maegor had to kill a number of High Septons in order to overrule the Faith on marriage, and he died with them still in revolt. When Baelor the Blessed wanted to set aside his marrige, it was on the grounds that he had never consummated it rather than because he was king and could simply proclaim it. When Naerys asked Aegon IV to dissolve their marriage, it was on the grounds that she wanted to take a septa's vow of celibacy (as Fireball's wife would do) rather than because he simply had the authority to dissolve it himself.

George has gone on record stating that the Faith was under the thumb of the Iron Throne after Maegor - and we see how true that is when Jaehaerys I forces through the Doctrine of Exceptionalism - the kings can do whatever they want now. And that power over the Faith would have only increased after Blessed Baelor moved the High Septon to KL.

Without the Faith Militant the High Septon and the Most Devout are effectively prisoners of the kings. The City Watch and the sworn swords and knights of the king could take the Great Sept whenever they want. They have no freedom, no leeway to oppose the Iron Throne.

Back when they were still in Oldtown they could, to a point, one imagines, if they had the Hightowers onboard. Especially after the dragons were gone.

8 minutes ago, FictionIsntReal said:

Which actions don't make sense? They make sense to me, as long as you assume he doesn't want Stannis on the throne.

Everything doesn't make sense - starting with Renly not telling Robert immediately (which would have made Stannis only the presumptive heir until Robert remarried and fathered some more children) to Renly not telling Ned to help him convince Robert, etc.

Hell, the entire Margaery plot is silly if Renly knows about the twincest. Then he could just destroy Cersei without having to find a girl resembling Lyanna - and once she is dealt with he could suggest Margaery as the obvious new bride for Robert because of her father's power, etc.

8 minutes ago, FictionIsntReal said:

A popular theory, but never official, and thus the Baratheons never practiced incest. They even took the Durrandon sigil & words to indicate continuity with an Andal house.

Oh, FaB makes it somewhat more official, but Orys isn't the main point, it is Robert's descent from Aegon V through his grandmother. Why should only Targaryens through the male line marry their sisters?

8 minutes ago, FictionIsntReal said:

Robert's hold on the realm is shakier than most prior kings, seeing as how there are still rival claimants in Essos. You would have to trace his lineage all the way back to Aegon IV to get the most recent sibling marriage. Robert attained the throne by overthrowing a mad king whose madness has been blamed on being a product of incest (and whose surviving heir has been said to have inherited some of that). He started off his reign by marrying the daughter of a Lord Paramount rather than a Targaryen, Baratheon or even Velaryon.

Robert is the king now because he is of Targaryen descent.

8 minutes ago, FictionIsntReal said:

They had the legitimacy of longstanding tenure, unlike Robert, and they shifted relatively toward exogamy after the Dance. The reason Robert has any Targaryen ancestry is because Aegon IV was arranging exogamous betrothals to help shore up his political support (and his failure led him to attempt to birth dragons at Summerhall).

And that is completely irrelevant to the point at hand.

8 minutes ago, FictionIsntReal said:

We're supposed to think he's dumb for this. Cersei tells him so, and both Cat & Stannis indicate to us that the Westerosi regard the spawn of incest as abominations.

Of course, and I didn't say it would be all that smart for Robert to take the incest route. I just said that they could attempt this to prevent another civil war if there was factionalism between Margaery's and Cersei's children. And as I also said - they could go with avucular or cousin marriages.

But whatever Jaime thought he could do ... Robert definitely could try to do, too. Even more so considering he was the king and could definitely tell the High Septon that he was as 'exceptional' as all those dragons he was descended from. Who would contradict him on this? You? The High Septon? I don't think so.

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Posted (edited)
8 hours ago, FictionIsntReal said:

Robb routed the Lannisters at Oxcross.

He routed a gathering army at Oxcross. Tywin Lannister was still safe within Harrenhal's walls.

8 hours ago, FictionIsntReal said:

None of these people regard KL as worthless, even if Robb has no intention of ever taking it himself.

Stannis and Renly want to rule the 7K like Robert did, so ofcourse they care about the capital.

Robb's aim was to destroy the Lannisters ability to wage war. You do not engage with my questions, instead you reply with something completely different.

If KL were threatened Cersei would require her father's armies. If Robb had totally destroyed the Lannisters in the field then Cersei would not be able to stop Stannis.

KL was only a symbol, on its own it did not give military power to the Lannisters.

8 hours ago, FictionIsntReal said:

Robb does rightly regard it as a real blow to his cause that the Lannisters win at Blackwater

The Lannisters won by joining the powerful Tyrells. Stannis also got destroyed during the battle.

The alliance and destruction of Stannis is the real issue, not the security of KL.

8 hours ago, FictionIsntReal said:

How is it spurious? He retreated to a defensible position, then came back victoriously.

Roughly half (or more) of the manpower in Robb's armies is taken from the Riverlands. It also makes up a very large part of Robb's kingdom. The Riverlands is his mother's home.

Philipines did not affect the US's fighting capabilities nor was it ever a part of the US. 

8 hours ago, FictionIsntReal said:

The Bolsheviks, despite their name, had been a minority political faction, and the White forces were supported by external powers like Japan, the UK and even the Czechoslovak Legion

The Bolsheviks were never meanigfully resisted by any of them. The Czechoslovaks never marched on the heart of the Bolsheviks. They chose to leave once the new Czechoslovak nation came to being.

The Japanese only attacked the far East and chse to settle.

The US, UK and France sent a token number of men. Nobody wanted to fight another war after the end of WW1.

8 hours ago, FictionIsntReal said:

And Renly was about to battle Stannis outside Storm's End (something he was forced to do after Stannis besieged it), before any Starks or Tully's could reach there.

We are discussing Mace's options before he joined Renly. 

8 hours ago, FictionIsntReal said:

Mace Tyrell is pragmatic enough to support a former enemy (although it might be difficult for the Targaryens & Martells to swallow).

Mace Tyrell is pragmatic enought to not fight for the Lannisters against four great houses.

Mace got to keep all his privileges and lands after the Rebellion. Why would he risk his men for Tywin Lannister's vanity?

8 hours ago, FictionIsntReal said:

If really necessary, Tywin can blame some subordinates for what happened in the sack, provided they're dead before they can testify to his responsibility (or are willing to take a bribe and the fall for someone else).

Tywin Lannister sacked the capital by treachery. He will not be able to hide his involvement.

8 hours ago, FictionIsntReal said:

He wasn't opposed by any of the STAB bloc and he was already a political ally of the Tyrells before he angled for the crown himself.

Renly has no reason to believe the old alliance would favour him over Stannis.

8 hours ago, FictionIsntReal said:

How is he going to get a grandson on the throne?

  Mace does not need the throne.

8 hours ago, FictionIsntReal said:

He wasn't opposed by any of the STAB bloc and he was already a political ally of the Tyrells before he angled for the crown himself.

Glad that you agree.:)

Robb doesn't need to seize the Crownlands.

8 hours ago, FictionIsntReal said:

Littlefinger knows about it, and he suggests Ned do exactly that after Ned discusses said incest!

Littlefinger is not Renly. He could never take direct control of the throne.

Knowledge of the incest does not logically follow from advocating for a regency.

8 hours ago, FictionIsntReal said:

Littlefinger knows about it, and he suggests Ned do exactly that after Ned discusses said incest!

Sieges happen when an army must remove a garrison from menacing its lines of communication. Mace could have screened Storm's End with a tiny force and marched north to fight. 

 

Edited by saltedmalted

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Guys, just accept it: It is a fact mentioned in the text that Renly doesn't know about the twincest. And he doesn't lie about it, doesn't have a reason to do so.

If Renly had known it he would have made it part of his propaganda machine to use this vile behavior of Cersei and Jaime to discredit the Lannister administation during his campaign. It could have only helped his cause to tell everybody about the whore queen and the bastard abomination on the Iron Throne. But he didn't do that - he also didn't tell Robert - not even when Robert had been ravaged by that boar and he was bringing him back to the city -, Ned - not even after Ned was offered to serve as a regent to a false king, etc.

People just have to let that notion go.

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Posted (edited)
35 minutes ago, Lord Varys said:

Guys, just accept it: It is a fact mentioned in the text that Renly doesn't know about the twincest. And he doesn't lie about it, doesn't have a reason to do so.

If Renly had known it he would have made it part of his propaganda machine to use this vile behavior of Cersei and Jaime to discredit the Lannister administation during his campaign. It could have only helped his cause to tell everybody about the whore queen and the bastard abomination on the Iron Throne. But he didn't do that - he also didn't tell Robert - not even when Robert had been ravaged by that boar and he was bringing him back to the city -, Ned - not even after Ned was offered to serve as a regent to a false king, etc.

People just have to let that notion go.

If he didn't know about the twincest, why was he trying to make Robert drop Cersei despite all the political and personal fallout there was going to be?

Edited by Angel Eyes

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52 minutes ago, Angel Eyes said:

If he didn't know about the twincest, why was he trying to make Robert drop Cersei despite all the political and personal fallout there was going to be?

Because both he and Cersei herself thought Robert could do that without (great) political fallout. His motivation behind that thing is vague, but it is obviously connected to the fact that Renly did not get along with Cersei and that he wanted to strengthen his position at court by giving the king a queen from a house he had sway over via Loras.

I get it why people think there must be more to this than than that ... but that's because George didn't put all that much effort into the 'Renly wants to make Margaery Robert's queen' plot.

To this day we don't really know how exactly it would have worked - what kind of pretext or justification there would be to do this, what the repercussions for Robert's children by Cersei would be, whether this would actually be the same kind of legal procedure as an annulment because of a marriage that was never consummated or whether it would be different, etc.

So far the one justification to set a marriage aside is non-consummation ... but it cannot be the only reason since Daemon petitioned Viserys I to set aside his marriage to Rhea Royce repeatedly, Aerys I was also asked whether he wanted to set aside his marriage (which may have been consummated or not), etc.

But what we do know is that both Renly/Loras and Cersei Lannister herself thought Robert could set Cersei aside for a new Lyanna. And that means the characters involved think this is something the king can do.

And the impression George gives us of the Faith in this era is that they are completely under the thumb of the Iron Throne. The king would get whatever he wanted, and nobody would have the legal power to stop him.

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