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saltedmalted

Mace Tyrell is a fool

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18 hours ago, Lord Varys said:

There is no indication that Olenna Redwyne ever gave Selyse Florent a thought ... and we all know she had nothing to do with Renly's plans to make Margaery Robert's queen nor Mace's and Loras' decision to crown Renly and marry him to Margaery.

A King Stannis is nowhere on the table in any of those scenarios since Renly's friends never expected Stannis to proclaim himself king.

And to be honest - Selyse Florent was Robert's sister-in-law for over a decade ... and nothing happened to strengthen the position of the Florents in the Reach. Instead, Loras Tyrell ended up as the squire of Robert's youngest brother, Lord Renly - not some Florent boy.

A mere look at Stannis' marriage would have been enough to indicate any savvy political observer that the Florents would never play an important role at the court a hypothetical King Stannis - because Stannis' marriage basically only exists on paper. The man served at court throughout Robert's reign but had his wife on daughter reside on Dragonstone. They lived separate and Stannis visited with them very infrequently.

Lord Alester Florent clearly doesn't care much about Selyse or even Axell considering he originally backed 'King Renly' - which is another hint that Selyse Florent was unable to secure an patronage/favors for her family while she was Robert's sister-in-law.

In light of the fact that Stannis clearly has no affection for Selyse, that she failed to do her duty and give him a son, people could expect a King Stannis to be even more open to the idea of putting Selyse aside in favor of a new wife than Renly and Loras thought Robert would be.

And that was my point - if Stannis had offered Shireen's hand to Willas Tyrell and if he had offered to set aside Selyse for Margaery or another Tyrell relation, and if this offer had reached Highgarden before Littlefinger showed up there ... then chances would have been very good that Mace Tyrell would have accepted this deal. Simply because he wouldn't have expected that the Lannisters would make a similar offer ... and if they had already come to an understanding by the time Littlefinger showed up (and he most likely wouldn't have come if Varys had heard that the Tyrells were already negotiating with Stannis) then things would have likely gone for him the way they did when Lucerys Velaryon showed up at Storm's End.

Because, as a I said already - the Lannisters are not popular in the Reach, and Loras Tyrell was nearly murdered by one of Tywin's senior henchmen back in AGoT. Renly and the Tyrells wanted to cast down Joffrey and destroy the Lannisters government when they started their campaign for the Iron Throne. There was potential there for an alliance Stannis could have exploited if he had been willing to compromise some more.

There is no indication that his decision not to make such an offer was based on his correct assessment of the political situation - it wasn't. If he had given matters a thought he should have considered that not securing the loyalty of Highgarden could result in them siding with the Lannisters if they made a better offer - and that's what happened.

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"If truth be told, even our claim to Highgarden is a bit dodgy, just as those dreadful Florents keep whining."

   -- Lady Olenna Tyrell.

Lady Olenna could have undone both the Renly betrothal and Joffrey betrothal jus as easily as she undid the Willas betrothal to Cersei. She didn't, though, because she wanted both marriages in order to put a Tyrell on the Iron Throne.

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"When I first broached the match with him, Lord Tyrell seemed well enough disposed. A day later, all was changed. The old woman's work. She hectors her son unmercifully. Varys claims she told him your sister was too old and too used for this precious one-legged grandson of hers."

   -- Tywin Lannister

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"The old woman is not boring, though, I'll grant her that.. A fearsome old harridan, and not near as frail as she pretends. When I came to Highgarden to dicker for Margaery's hand, she let her lord husband bluster while she asked pointed questions about Joffrey's nature."

    --Littlefinger

 

No reason to expect Stannis to claim the throne? Ned had already been thrown in prison for claiming that Stannis was the rightful king. And the Tyrells are backing Renly to make him king by force, over the more legitimate claim of his own brother.

Sister-in-laws are not queens, especially when she is the wife of a brother who is estranged from the king.

So if Stannis became king, then Selyse and Shireen would remain on Dragonstone while Stannis ruled with his red woman by his side? Unlikely, particularly from the perspective of the Tyrells. Selyse would be queen, with all the power and influence that comes with being married to a king who has zero reason to extend any favors to the Tyrells.

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"House Florent can field two thousand swords at best." It was said Stannis Baratheon knew the strength of every house in the Seven Kingdoms. "And you have a deal more faith in your brothers and uncles than I do, my lady. The Florent lands lie too close to Highgarden for your lord uncle to risk Mace Tyrell's wrath."

   -- Stannis Baratheon

Alester backing Renly was done out of convenience, not loyalty, just like his jump to Stannis.

Nobody could, should or would expect Stannis to put Selyse aside. He is utterly bound to the laws of gods and men and he is legally wed to Selyse. No way, no how anyone would expect that to happen.

And this is my point: The text makes it perfectly clear that Mace Tyrell would not be the one accepting this deal for Margaery and Willas. Lady Olenna makes all these decisions, and she is continuing a long-held stance in the Reach of marginalizing the "dreadful" house that has a better claim to Highgarden than the Tyrells do. And if Stannis wanted to make that deal, he had plenty of opportunity to do so -- he could have made it before Renly had even married Margy, in fact. He had already determined that he is the rightful king by then.

Loras Tyrell was also rescued by one of Tywin Lannister's senior henchmen back in AGOT. And exactly, if there was a potential for a Stannis-Tyrell alliance way back then he could have exploited it. He's a smart guy, and backing the elder son with the more legitimate claim to the throne would have solved a lot of problems for the Tyrells. But there was no potential because Stannis is married to a Florent, and Lady Olenna, who is actually in charge of House Tyrell, would not stand for a dreadful Florent in such a highly influential position.

 

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16 hours ago, FictionIsntReal said:

Official is exactly what it is. And Ran had to confirm details with GRRM when making it.

 

I'll take Ran's word over yours, thank you.

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  • Ran
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It is semi-canon. It contains material contributions from GRRM, and its text was reviewed by him. That said, it is not fully canon because GRRM reserves the right to change details noted in the app when he actually sits down to publish the details in the course of the novels. As a notable example,, his vision of the relationship of Bloodraven to what happened in Maekar's reign changed substantially when he sat down and wrote his contributions for the world book, and we'll be getting the app corrected in that regard.

 

 

 

Whether he is likely to change details noted in the app regarding Lyanna when he finally publishes the novels, I couldn't tell you, but I am doubtful.


Edited June 5, 2015 by Ran

 

Plus, the World Book is official as well, and that says Rhaegar kidnapped Lyanna who died without bearing him any children.

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2 hours ago, John Suburbs said:

Lady Olenna could have undone both the Renly betrothal and Joffrey betrothal jus as easily as she undid the Willas betrothal to Cersei. She didn't, though, because she wanted both marriages in order to put a Tyrell on the Iron Throne.

Olenna herself goes on record stating that she opposed the Renly king nonsense. Obviously she couldn't prevent that entire thing. And there is also no indication that Olenna wants to put a Tyrell on the throne. She isn't even a Tyrell by birth and didn't exactly like her stupid husband nor her son Mace. She loves her granddaughter and wants to ensure she doesn't suffer because of her father's ambitions.

2 hours ago, John Suburbs said:

No reason to expect Stannis to claim the throne? Ned had already been thrown in prison for claiming that Stannis was the rightful king. And the Tyrells are backing Renly to make him king by force, over the more legitimate claim of his own brother.

Do the Tyrells know why exactly Ned is thrown into prison? Neither Renly nor Loras are there when this happened.

2 hours ago, John Suburbs said:

Sister-in-laws are not queens, especially when she is the wife of a brother who is estranged from the king.

Stannis sat on the Small Council for years - he and Robert were not 'estranged' - they worked together.

2 hours ago, John Suburbs said:

So if Stannis became king, then Selyse and Shireen would remain on Dragonstone while Stannis ruled with his red woman by his side? Unlikely, particularly from the perspective of the Tyrells. Selyse would be queen, with all the power and influence that comes with being married to a king who has zero reason to extend any favors to the Tyrells.

Nope, that's not something one can expect. Stannis could have his wife and daughter by his side - like Jon Arryn did - when he was sitting on the council. He didn't. He may have called for Selyse to join him when he had taken the throne ... or not. But even if she were at court, Selyse would never have any influence over her husband or politics because Stannis loathes women in general and Selyse in particular.

And since we can expect Stannis to want a male heir one day chances are pretty high he would be open to the suggestion to get rid of Selyse and take a new wife ... which could be Margaery's chance. Stannis would be a very ridiculous king if his only heir was a disfigured girl.

2 hours ago, John Suburbs said:

Nobody could, should or would expect Stannis to put Selyse aside. He is utterly bound to the laws of gods and men and he is legally wed to Selyse. No way, no how anyone would expect that to happen.

This is a ridiculous statement in light of the fact that Stannis knew that Renly was scheming to replace Cersei with Margaery. If Stannis knew Robert could have taken a new queen so could he, Stannis, as king. And Stannis loathes Selyse much more than Robert ever loathed Cersei - Robert at least desired Cersei ocassionally. Stannis is just disgusted by his wife.

We also see how Stannis effectively replaces Selyse with Melisandre in the books we are reading. She is Stannis' wife and queen in all but name. Selyse is just also there. If Stannis thought Mel could give him children he would most likely divorce Selyse as soon as he could ... but he might know that the only children Mel can give him are shadow assassins.

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Also, something one has to consider in this whole Margaery-Robert plot is the fact that none of the characters involved - not Cersei, not Renly, not Stannis - ever expected Robert to pull a Maegor or Aegon I and take Margaery as a second wife in addition to Cersei.

This noteworthy because the Targaryen precedents for polygamy set by the Conqueror, Maegor the Cruel and, perhaps, Rhaegar are much more recent than those of earlier kings who sat aside wives to take a new queen.

In the framework of the story and history as presented one should expect folks to at least consider the possibility that Robert could take a second wife without setting aside the first.

I mean, folks here know me as a guy who fervently argues against the idea that Rhaegar could have pulled off his polygamy stick ... but that's because he wasn't the king when he took Lya. And because we cannot assume he had the support of his royal father or the Faith in this mad enterprise.

But Robert was the king. He had the legal power necessary to coerce the Faith to get what he want.

It is clear why Renly wouldn't consider this - he wants Cersei out and Margaery in - but that Cersei doesn't think of polygamy as something Robert could pull is actually quite significant.

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On 3/17/2021 at 7:21 PM, Lord Varys said:

I took issue with you comparing the settings.

Westeros vs medieval England?

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Tywin could have captured them ... and Robert would still get the throne.

Any potential claimant is someone that Targaryen loyalists can rally around, as was the case with the captive hostage Aegon III. There are potential solutions which involve them taking holy vows barring them or any potential children of theirs from inheriting.

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Sure enough, but there is no guarantee that Margaery and her family could not win him to their side during the years Margaery would be married to Robert.

There's no guarantee that they CAN.

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Joff might not be the kind of guy who fuels his rage for decades.

He didn't live long enough for us to say, but from what we see he's rather lacking in any positive qualities (such as letting go of anger/resentment).

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Of course Robert burned the world - he led the Rebellion.

No, Jon Arryn called his banners first. Jon Arryn made the political decisions. Robert wasn't interested in being king, but proclaimed himself because Jon (and Ned) told him to.

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Brandon just died. He burned nothing.

Rickard Stark literally burned as a result of Brandon's actions, without Robert having done anything.

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Robert started to loathe Rhaegar after Harrenhal

He publicly laughed it off rather than actually doing anything (unlike Brandon).

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He didn't hate the Targaryens because of Aerys II but because of Rhaegar.

I think it's clear he hates both of them similarly and lumps them all together (unlike Ned). If someone ordered your death and that of your best friend (after killing said friend's father & brother), you'd probably hate them too.

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Neither was Henry VIII. But he had Thomas Cromwell ... and Robert could have Littlefinger, say.

Henry VII made a lot of changes to England. Robert has been king for some time now, without doing anything like that, even with LF on his Small Council. Robert doesn't attend those meetings generally anyway, instead leaving such responsibilities up to his Hand. Is LF going to be the Hand under your scenario?

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Stop dancing around - Aerys II's legal heir after his death was Viserys III. He was the rightful king, and Robert usurped the throne. Meaning he messed with the line of succession big time as I said.

He fought a civil war to exclude Aerys' line from the throne. If Joffrey somehow transforms into a neo-Aerys prior to ascending there could perhaps be a civil war in which Robert fights & kills Joffrey (possibly through an intermediary to avoid the charge of kinslaying) and excludes any of his offspring from the throne.

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which is clear enough to anyone immune to mad conspiracy theories

Hiring a catspaw IS itself a conspiracy.

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Even the execution of Ned shows Joffrey trying to channel his inner Robert, doing something he thinks a man like his father would (want him to) do. He is dead wrong there, of course

How does any of that have anything to do with Robert? I can see how defying his mom's advice makes him not-Cersei, but there's nothing about "chall[ing] his inner Robert".

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Joff would be somewhat older by the time the Margaery wedding would take place - she would have to come to court, would have to woo the king, would have to get him to the point that he wanted to marry her, etc. And then they would have to get rid of Cersei, etc. it could take months, possibly years

How can they have any confidence that Robert would steadily remain with Margaery over that potentially years-long process? Robert has never been known to stick with a mistress long! The known mothers of his bastards are a lowborn woman from the Vale, a prostitute at the Peach, an alewench in KL (and later a prostitute there), Delena Florent (in Stannis' marriage bed) and a serving woman at Casterly Rock. Unlike Aerys II or Aegon IV, none of these are people in his court.

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That has nothing to do with anything

No, prior precedent is entirely relevant as to what we can expect from another king. We know of cases where kings hated their firstborn legitimate sons, and instead of the route you think is logical Aegon IV instead legitimized his bastards on his deathbed and Aerys II disinherited the infant son of his recently deceased heir in favor of an heir with an advantage in both age (we know a long regency is something the Westerosi attempt to avoid) & proximity to the king.

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If he were to resist the king's new marriage, refused to acknowledge Margaery as his new mother and queen, publicly spoke against her and her children, etc. he quickly could end up in such a position.

Daeron II spoke out against his father all the time... but was never disinherited. Rhaenyra & Alicent got along terribly, but there was no disinheritance there either.

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The Tyrells would have a queen at Robert's side ... and that's all they wanted at that point. Or rather - all Renly wanted, who was the architect of this plan.

The Tyrells would have to agree to it. And why would they agree if they think Joffrey & Tommen would still be ahead of any of Margaery's kids in the succession?

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And to be sure - both Joff and Tommen could also be betrothed to Tyrells if push came to shove

Joff is already betrothed to Sansa. And even setting that aside, do the Tyrells have any reason to expect this WILL happen rather than that it CAN happen? Rhaenyra could have been betrothed to Aegon II, but that didn't happen, nor was there any other recombination of the two branches from Viserys' tree.

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Nope, we see it again and again in FaB that the Heir Apparent is named and formally installed

As Prince of Dragonstone. Joffrey is not that.

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even if he is the firstborn son of a monarch

If said monarch has a firstborn son that lives long enough, that son always gets installed as Prince of Dragonstone. The exception was Aegon II.

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Because he basically hands the kingdom to Ned. He dwells on how good a ruler Ned will be now compared to Robert himself, and he finds solace in the fact that he did this one thing right - handing the reins of power to Ned.

He doesn't say "You chooses an heir instead of Joff".

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right now I actually think what Robert would have said then after he had recovered from the shock and betrayal is that he would hand the crown and throne to Ned now, passing over both his brothers and any other relations because - and he established earlier - he honestly thinks Jon and, especially, Ned would have been better kings than he was.

Ned already explained to him earlier in the book that Robert had to be king instead of Ned or Jon. Robert already gave Dragonstone to Stannis, and word of GRRM is that this was to indicate that Stannis was (then) his heir. He didn't give it to Ned.

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He could certainly say something like that

Honorable Ned Stark, still too deeply ashamed of his bastard to speak of his conception, is not going to be receptive to an Anne Boleyn plot.

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Stannis knows that Renly wanted to make Margaery Robert's queen

Stannis only refers to a plot to put Margaery in Robert's bed, not to make her queen. It's possible that he's construing it in a way he regards as more derogatory of Renly (just as I think Renly's statements to Stannis should be taken with a grain of salt), but I'm not aware of any other information that should make us think he did know about the queen bit.

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apparently Loras and Renly believed Mace would do exactly that

Mace would be willing to do that if Renly had the twincest card up his sleeve available to be played once Robert took a shine to Margaery.

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Ned could easily enough have filled Tywin's shoes

He doesn't have the resources, and he was already supporting Robert's regime.

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Renly doesn't know about the twincest. You have to accept that because it is an established fact in the books.

It's not an "established fact", you are assuming very conclusion we're arguing about! I don't claim that his knowledge is an "established fact", because that would be a terrible way to convince an unconvinced person. I instead argue that it's the only possibility that fits the available evidence. If we had gotten a scene where Renly first reacts to the allegation (as LF does), then we could see wheter he was noticed as being surprised or not. But we don't. Instead Renly has already read Stannis' letter before Catelyn has heard about it.

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There are ways to set aside wives, obviously

Anullment due to non-consummation & joining an order with sacred vows of celibacy are the two peaceful ways we know of. Accusing Cersei of treason via adultery would be a less peaceful way.

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else Renly wouldn't have schemed what he schemed and Cersei wouldn't have been afraid

You are again assuming the conclusion you're trying to prove. And Cersei was afraid that her incest would be revealed!

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This makes it perfectly clear that Cersei Lannister fears that Robert is going to (effectively) divorce her for a new Lyanna - which is exactly what Renly plans.

By "effectively" do you mean inclusive of taking up a long-term mistress and favoring her over his wife? Robert's lack of love for Cersei is relevant for that, but she explicitly notes its relevance for whether he would believe the accusation of incest.

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George has gone on record stating that the Faith was under the thumb of the Iron Throne after Maegor

He's talked about how if you have dragons (unlike Robert) you can ignore the Faith's rules... but Maegor had dragons and the Faith remained in revolt throughout his tenure. After him there's the Doctrine of Exceptionalism, but that was only used to make a sibling marriage exception for Targaryens. It was not an exemption for all laws, or even all the Faith's laws of marriage. Otherwise they wouldn't bother marrying under the Faith, and no other houses would be willing to enter a marriage compact with them.

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Without the Faith Militant the High Septon and the Most Devout are effectively prisoners of the kings. The City Watch and the sworn swords and knights of the king could take the Great Sept whenever they want. They have no freedom, no leeway to oppose the Iron Throne.

The Shepherd opposed the Iron Throne and succeeded in driving out Rhaenyra and killing her dragons in the pit without even having any of the institutions of the Faith at his back!

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Everything doesn't make sense - starting with Renly not telling Robert immediately (which would have made Stannis only the presumptive heir until Robert remarried and fathered some more children)

If Renly tells Robert immediately, he can't be sure Robert will marry Margaery. Stannis WOULD have benefited from immediately telling Robert... if he thought Robert would believe him, and we know Cersei thinks Robert is less likely to listen to either of his brothers than Ned.

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to Renly not telling Ned to help him convince Robert

Ned would want to immediately tell Robert, not arrange for his next marriage first. And once Robert is dead, there's no chance of a Tyrell marriage alliance, Stannis is the next king.

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Hell, the entire Margaery plot is silly if Renly knows about the twincest. Then he could just destroy Cersei without having to find a girl resembling Lyanna - and once she is dealt with he could suggest Margaery as the obvious new bride for Robert because of her father's power, etc.

Robert is unhappy he let Jon Arryn talk him into marrying Cersei for the good of the realm, he's not going to be in the mood for another political marriage alliance suggested by a member of his SC. Robert never even meets Margaery prior to his death. The reveal would need to wait until, at minimum, after that.

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 Oh, FaB makes it somewhat more official

Official in that historians regard it as true, not in the sense that he was publicly acknowledged. Instead he's introduced as being "whispered" to be Aegon's baseborn half-brother.

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Why should only Targaryens through the male line marry their sisters?

Because Westeros is a patriarchal, patrilinieal society. When a woman marries into a man's family she takes his name, relocates to his home and adopts the customs he permits.

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Robert is the king now because he is of Targaryen descent.

Because of it, but he's not a Targaryen and is instead vocally anti-Targaryen.

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And that is completely irrelevant to the point at hand.

No, what people actually did under varying circumstances is entirely relevant. GRRM explicitly links the feasibility of sibling marriage to the Targaryen possession of dragons.

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I just said that they could attempt this

Robert COULD attempt to eat the Iron Throne for breakfast. That's the lowest of bars to clear.

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Even more so considering he was the king and could definitely tell the High Septon that he was as 'exceptional' as all those dragons he was descended from. Who would contradict him on this? You? The High Septon? I don't think so.

Robert already had to tamp down on rebellions without any of that. The Doctrine of Exceptional got adopted after a long revolt by the Faith and the replacement of the very anti-Faith Maegor with someone more conciliatory (but still possessing dragons). Robert doesn't have dragons, nor is he going to have the support of lords who fought against the Targaryens while enmeshed in a web of exogamous marriage alliances.

18 hours ago, saltedmalted said:

He routed a gathering army at Oxcross. Tywin Lannister was still safe within Harrenhal's walls.

I said Robb was already fighting the Lannisters & winning. Renly declared himself king after that. And if Stannis does seize KL and execute Cersei's children, it doesn't matter if Tywin is "safe within Harrenhal's walls", he's going to have to worry about King Stannis attainting him and giving Casterly Rock to someone else.

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Stannis and Renly want to rule the 7K like Robert did

Tywin also wants to rule (via Cersei's children). And he's able to get Robb's bannermen to betray Robb because they think Tywin is likely to win and his regime will reward such traitors.

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You do not engage with my questions

Which questions?

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KL was only a symbol, on its own it did not give military power to the Lannisters.

KL is the seat of the crownlands, which they do draw on for military support. It has a fleet of ships to be used, and goldcloaks to be deployed in defense of the city. The promise of the throne can be used to borrow funds from the Faith and the Iron Bank. And vassals generally want to be on the side of whoever controls it. That's why the Tyrells agree to a marriage alliance.

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The alliance and destruction of Stannis is the real issue, not the security of KL.

Imagine the relieving army gets there late. Stannis has already taken KL & Rosby, executing Cersei and her children. Who is Margaery going to marry for an alliance? We know how things shifted after Renly died, even though there wasn't even a battle.

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Philipines did not affect the US's fighting capabilities nor was it ever a part of the US.

It had been acquired by the US during the Spanish-American war, and was used to provide ports for the Navy. Hawaii was not a state when Pearl Harbor was attacked, but the attack was treated as an attack on the US (which Japan thought would knock us out of the war). Japan attacked in the first place so they could acquire resources from other colonial territories, but they feared if the US had nearby bases we would have the "fighting capabilities" to prevent them from seizing those territories. During WW2 we know that the Free French forces went into exile until France could be liberated, while the exiled Poles fighting for the Allies were not quite so lucky. Stannis is able to keep his claim alive by going north, although admittedly his odds of recovering territory in the south are quite long.

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We are discussing Mace's options before he joined Renly.

Actually, if you trace these quotes back you'll find yourself responding to a quote of mine about the White Army with "How will Renly defeat and kill Stannis if the Starks and Tullies are following him?". The Starks & Tullies were not following Stannis before or after Mace acknowledged Renly as king (he was surreptitiously allied to Renly prior to war breaking out at all).

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Mace Tyrell is pragmatic enought to not fight for the Lannisters against four great houses.

Mace fought for the Targaryens against the STAB bloc, only dipping his banners after Ned left KL to relieve the siege.

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Mace got to keep all his privileges and lands after the Rebellion. Why would he risk his men for Tywin Lannister's vanity?

He was willing to risk his men for Renly's vanity, and Aerys' madness prior to that. If Mace thinks he'll be on the winning side and he can be rewarded, that's enough. The Lannisters & Tyrells have fought fewer battles than the STAB bloc, and they wouldn't be as far from home as Ned's Northmen during any renewed fighting.

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Tywin Lannister sacked the capital by treachery. He will not be able to hide his involvement.

Certainly for the sack itself, just not specific murders.

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Renly has no reason to believe the old alliance would favour him over Stannis.

He didn't need any favor from them in order to go to war against Stannis. Once Stannis is dead he can inherit Stannis' claims.

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Mace does not need the throne.

He really wants it, even over the objections of Olenna (or at least that's what she claims).

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Glad that you agree.

Were you intending to respond to this: "In a hypothetical where he seized all but the Crownlands, they wouldn't be able to withstand him, but like I said he doesn't have the capability of doing anything near that."? You re-quoted the bit about not being opposed by the STAB bloc. This is getting confusing.

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Robb doesn't need to seize the Crownlands.

Yes, an independent northern kingdom doesn't need that. But if the Lannisters lost that territory, would Robb's bannermen still be willing to switch sides?

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Littlefinger is not Renly. He could never take direct control of the throne.

Ned isn't going to let Renly take direct control of the throne while Stannis lives.

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Knowledge of the incest does not logically follow from advocating for a regency.

I never said it logically follows; Ned & Stannis know about it but neither advocates a regency! I said it's not incompatible, since LF combines exactly that knowledge with such advocacy (and the idea to install Renly later, which is not something Renly mentions to Ned). Renly & LF were very much sympatico throughout their time on the council, making japes to Stannis' chagrin.

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Sieges happen when an army must remove a garrison from menacing its lines of communication.

That's one thing. But Storm's End also contained two very valuable hostages in Stannis & Renly, and as a famously impregnable force-multiplier it would be very difficult to dislodge any rebel force which arrived and relieved it.

12 hours ago, Lord Varys said:

Guys, just accept it: It is a fact mentioned in the text that Renly doesn't know about the twincest.

You are again assuming the conclusion you are trying to argue for. Nowhere in the text does it explicitly say Renly doesn't know. Even the literal meaning of the sentence "Were it only true, you would indeed be Robert's heir" isn't a denial! Instead it shows how one man's modus ponens is another's modus tollens. Renly is rejecting Stannis as Robert's heir, so he's also motivated to reject the truth of Stannis' claim. Still further he says "You may well have the better claim, Stannis, but I still have the larger army". He's disregarding the actual merits of the claim out of his own self-interest. He goes on to repeat LF's propaganda about Patchface & Selyse. There's no reason to think Renly had actually believed this rumor that LF made up, he's just saying something to denigrate Stannis. And that's the light in which all his statements to Stannis there should be interpreted.

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If Renly had known it he would have made it part of his propaganda machine to use this vile behavior of Cersei and Jaime to discredit the Lannister administation during his campaign.

No, because it makes Stannis the heir and Renly actually EMBRACES anti-Stannis propaganda from the Lannisters! After he kills Stannis he'll be free to use it.

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he also didn't tell Robert - not even when Robert had been ravaged by that boar

That would make Stannis the king. These brothers don't get along, and the Tyrells get nothing.

10 hours ago, Lord Varys said:

Because both he and Cersei herself thought Robert could do that without (great) political fallout.

That's insane. Westerosi aristocrats depend on marriage alliances, made sacred under the Seven. They wouldn't enter into such alliances if they could easily be dissolved! Walder Frey & Lyonel Baratheon show what trouble can result from a mere broken betrothal without such oaths! Tywin Lannister would be even less likely to put up with that than Tyrion's arrest. Even Aegon IV and Aerys II were unwilling to disinherit (not even divorce) for fear of political fallout.

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I get it why people think there must be more to this than than that ... but that's because George didn't put all that much effort into the 'Renly wants to make Margaery Robert's queen' plot.

This is the most plausible argument you've made so far. But GRRM was planning the twincest reveal from the beginning. Everyone on the Small Council seems to have known about it, with the understandable exception of Barristan (who wasn't a political player). I don't think GRRM figured Renly (portrayed as a buddy of LF) was another exception regarding that very poorly kept secret.

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So far the one justification to set a marriage aside is non-consummation ... but it cannot be the only reason

Indeed it isn't, since Fireball set aside his marriage when his wife joined the Silent Sisters so that he could join the Kingsguard. A man who joins the Nightswatch (as Jeor wanted his unfortunately-married son Jorah to do) also loses any ties of blood or marriage.

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Daemon petitioned Viserys I to set aside his marriage to Rhea Royce repeatedly

They had no children and spent most of their time apart. Nobody actually believed it wasn't consummated, and he had to wait for her to die.

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Aerys I was also asked whether he wanted to set aside his marriage (which may have been consummated or not)

There were also no children there and he was famously disinterested in his wife.

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And the impression George gives us of the Faith in this era is that they are completely under the thumb of the Iron Throne. The king would get whatever he wanted, and nobody would have the legal power to stop him.

The impression GRRM gives is that these characters take marriages seriously as something that cannot easily be undone once consummated. That's why they place so much importance on marriage alliances!

10 hours ago, John Suburbs said:

Lady Olenna could have undone both the Renly betrothal and Joffrey betrothal jus as easily as she undid the Willas betrothal to Cersei.

I wouldn't go so far as to say she has unlimited power over Mace in such matters. Getting her way one time doesn't mean getting her way every time. Cersei is indeed old enough to have many fewer years of fertility than Renly or Joffrey with Margaery.

10 hours ago, John Suburbs said:

I'll take Ran's word over yours, thank you.

His words were "pie or wine was poisoned during Purple Wedding" among the things GRRM confirmed in order to make the app. GRRM can of course change his mind, just as he has numerous times superseded earlier material with later stuff but that doesn't make it not "official". This isn't something like backstory regarding Bloodraven. We already had LF explain his role in what happened to Sansa & why the Tyrells were willing to take that poison from Sansa's hairnet.

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Plus, the World Book is official as well, and that says Rhaegar kidnapped Lyanna who died without bearing him any children.

That's officially the stance of the maester who wrote it! :)

7 hours ago, Lord Varys said:

Olenna herself goes on record stating that she opposed the Renly king nonsense.

That's true, but I would also take her statement with a grain of salt. She's not trying to present herself as a political player to Sansa (even though that's precisely what she is and she's about to decide on Joffrey's assassination). She's just posing as a concerned grandma. I'm not assuming it's a complete lie either though, so I disagree with John Suburbs.

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Selyse would never have any influence over her husband or politics because Stannis loathes women in general and Selyse in particular.

I don't think Stannis loathes his wife nearly as much as Robert loathes Cersei. But Cersei still has influence. And the Queen's Men are an important faction in Stannis' coalition.

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And since we can expect Stannis to want a male heir one day chances are pretty high he would be open to the suggestion to get rid of Selyse and take a new wife

He's never indicated any such openness and actually declares Shireen to be his heir at one point. If he REALLY wanted a male heir he would have been more diligent in his marital duties, whereas by most accounts he goes to bed perfunctorily (Selyse residing elsewhere will of course limit how often they can make an attempt). Westerosi stick with miserable marriages.

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Stannis would be a very ridiculous king if his only heir was a disfigured girl.

Stannis doesn't exactly take actions to avoid being laughed at (like when he suggested shutting down all the brothels). He just grinds his teeth.

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This is a ridiculous statement in light of the fact that Stannis knew that Renly was scheming to replace Cersei with Margaery.

His exact statement is "A year ago you were scheming to make that girl one of Robert's whores". Not even a monogamous relationship with a mistress alongside a paper-only marriage! Stannis could be lying about his knowledge to deride Renly... but then you have to admit Renly could be doing the same thing.

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And Stannis loathes Selyse much more than Robert ever loathed Cersei - Robert at least desired Cersei ocassionally. Stannis is just disgusted by his wife.

Robert finds Cersei physically attractive, but dislikes everything else about her (including her unwillingness to have sex with him). Stannis doesn't have the same physical attraction to Selyse, but he was still able to father at least one child with her, and she doesn't seem to have a problem with him.

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She is Stannis' wife and queen in all but name. Selyse is just also there.

Mel & Selyse are on the same page. Selyse has converted to Mel's religion, and Mel is entirely devoted to that religion rather than her personal fortunes. Mel isn't competing for Selyse's place.

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If Stannis thought Mel could give him children he would most likely divorce Selyse as soon as he could

There are women other than Mel who can give birth to actual children! Stannis defeated an enormous host of wildlings, and Selyse sought to arrange some political marriages involving them. Stannis could have fathered children with one of them, they're hardly even less Westerosi than Mel!

4 hours ago, Lord Varys said:

This noteworthy because the Targaryen precedents for polygamy set by the Conqueror, Maegor the Cruel and, perhaps, Rhaegar are much more recent than those of earlier kings who sat aside wives to take a new queen.

There was NO precedent set by Rhaegar. As far as the realm is concerned, he was married just one time and simply ran off with some other girl without marrying her. And Maegor serves as an anti-precedent: nobody wants to be like him, which is why the only time his name got used again was when Aerion decided to troll everybody (thus helping to ensure Maegor II stayed off the throne). You are of course correct that there's even less precedent for the kind of divorce you are suggesting is possible :)

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that Cersei doesn't think of polygamy as something Robert could pull is actually quite significant

It's "significant" for readers raising polygamy as a possibility, it was already evident that's not permitted. Maegor had to execute a number of septons before any would preside over a polygamous marriage, and those marriages are basically regarded as cursed.

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11 hours ago, FictionIsntReal said:

Daeron II spoke out against his father all the time... but was never disinherited. Rhaenyra & Alicent got along terribly, but there was no disinheritance there either.

Rhaenrya was already installed as the heir in detriment of Alicent's children and the only reason why Daeron was never attainted (the same goes for Rhaegar) is because he had enough support on his own to give his father a run for his money. I don't think that Joffrey had that.

 

11 hours ago, FictionIsntReal said:

The Tyrells would have to agree to it. And why would they agree if they think Joffrey & Tommen would still be ahead of any of Margaery's kids in the succession?

Money, power, offices and royal grandsons... the usual, it's indeed a risky gamble but a worthy one.

And given that Sansa was already betrothed to Joffrey, this was their only chance of getting close to the throne in this generation.

 

11 hours ago, FictionIsntReal said:

Anullment due to non-consummation & joining an order with sacred vows of celibacy are the two peaceful ways we know of. Accusing Cersei of treason via adultery would be a less peaceful way.

Not the only ways.

 

 

11 hours ago, FictionIsntReal said:

How does any of that have anything to do with Robert? I can see how defying his mom's advice makes him not-Cersei, but there's nothing about "chall[ing] his inner Robert".

It doesn't.

 

 

11 hours ago, FictionIsntReal said:

If Renly tells Robert immediately, he can't be sure Robert will marry Margaery. Stannis WOULD have benefited from immediately telling Robert... if he thought Robert would believe him, and we know Cersei thinks Robert is less likely to listen to either of his brothers than Ned.

We also know that she's wrong regarding on why did Robert give Dragonstone to Stannis, he would certainly be more likely to believe Ned, that doesn't mean he wouldn't have believed his brothers.

And whether Stannis benefits the most from telling Robert or not it depends entirely on Robert, whether Robert decides to name anyone but Stannis his heir or not, whether Robert suddenly dies leaving Stannis as his only acknowledged heir or whether Robert doesn't simply remarry and have heirs of his own right away.

Stannis stands to benefit as much as Edric Storm or Mya or any highlord who happens to have the right daughter at the right time.

 

11 hours ago, FictionIsntReal said:

He was willing to risk his men for Renly's vanity, and Aerys' madness prior to that. If Mace thinks he'll be on the winning side and he can be rewarded, that's enough. The Lannisters & Tyrells have fought fewer battles than the STAB bloc, and they wouldn't be as far from home as Ned's Northmen during any renewed fighting.

Sure, but he wouldn't have thought he would be in the winning side, hence why he dipped his banners without resistance even when he surely outnumbered Ned's host. Both the Reach and Dorne were far from spent when they begrudgindly accepted the new regime, yet both of them saw the writing in the wall, in Mace's case Martin already implies that his lords would not have followed him anyway.

I see no reason to believe that Mace and Tywin would have been different except if it is for arguing for the sake of it.

 

 

11 hours ago, FictionIsntReal said:

Certainly for the sack itself, just not specific murders.

I don't think that he effectively hid his involvement (he literally presented the children's corpses wrapped in Lannister cloaks) as much as i think tat he benefited from Robert's disinterest in making justice on the matter.

 

 

11 hours ago, FictionIsntReal said:

You are again assuming the conclusion you are trying to argue for. Nowhere in the text does it explicitly say Renly doesn't know. Even the literal meaning of the sentence "Were it only true, you would indeed be Robert's heir" isn't a denial! Instead it shows how one man's modus ponens is another's modus tollens. Renly is rejecting Stannis as Robert's heir, so he's also motivated to reject the truth of Stannis' claim. Still further he says "You may well have the better claim, Stannis, but I still have the larger army". He's disregarding the actual merits of the claim out of his own self-interest. He goes on to repeat LF's propaganda about Patchface & Selyse. There's no reason to think Renly had actually believed this rumor that LF made up, he's just saying something to denigrate Stannis. And that's the light in which all his statements to Stannis there should be interpreted.

It doesn't make much sense doesn't it??

Renly is usurping three people, his late brother's children and his brother. If Renly embraced the twincest and still continued his quest to get throne... he would only be usurping his brother... Why not embrace it??

Robert was far more beloved than Stannis will ever be, obviously from a PR perspective, usurping his legit children cannot be better than just usurping a man no one really wants as their king... So why shouldn't he parrot Stannis's tale?

Renly stands to gain far more if he accepts the tale and just remove Stannis than if he rejects it and is forced to remove Joffrey, Tommen AND Stannis.

In fact if Renly knows from the get go... Why not simply tell Robert (or Ned) and make him become infatuated with Margaery??

 

 

 

11 hours ago, FictionIsntReal said:

No, because it makes Stannis the heir and Renly actually EMBRACES anti-Stannis propaganda from the Lannisters! After he kills Stannis he'll be free to use it.

And how's that somehow worse than going after Robert's acknowkedged children and heirs??

Joffrey was the one Renly was going against not Stannis,  Joffrey had the legitimacy of being the Crown Prince, being the actual King on the Iron Throne, he had the backing of Tywin and Casterly Rock and he controlled the capital. Stannis only had his fleet and even after he announced his truth... no one really cared. So why taking on Stannis the heir of the throne is worse than taking on Robert's eldest son Joffrey??

 

 

12 hours ago, FictionIsntReal said:

That's insane. Westerosi aristocrats depend on marriage alliances, made sacred under the Seven. They wouldn't enter into such alliances if they could easily be dissolved! Walder Frey & Lyonel Baratheon show what trouble can result from a mere broken betrothal without such oaths! Tywin Lannister would be even less likely to put up with that than Tyrion's arrest. Even Aegon IV and Aerys II were unwilling to disinherit (not even divorce) for fear of political fallout.

But they can be easily dissolved and what could Tywin really do anyway?? If he doesn't get any funny ideas, he can default his loans but he would only affect his Robert's regime in which he is deeply involved with, if he does get funny ideas, he dies for treason and all the debt owed to him and his family is cancelled.

 

 

12 hours ago, FictionIsntReal said:

I don't think Stannis loathes his wife nearly as much as Robert loathes Cersei. But Cersei still has influence. And the Queen's Men are an important faction in Stannis' coalition.

Robert listens to Cersei, albeit begrudgindly, Selyse's influence only starts to rise when the war starts and is only due to Melisandre and Queen's men is a nice way of saying, "Melisandre's zealots".

Those weren't nearly as prominent when Stannis had behind him all the power of the Stormlands and they start losing prominence the moment Stannis is set on winning over the North.

The more desperate is Stannis the more he heeds to Melisandre, the more power he gains, the less he listens to her, which is why i believe he'll lose against the Boltons.

 

 

 

 

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Posted (edited)
21 hours ago, Lord Varys said:

Olenna herself goes on record stating that she opposed the Renly king nonsense. Obviously she couldn't prevent that entire thing. And there is also no indication that Olenna wants to put a Tyrell on the throne. She isn't even a Tyrell by birth and didn't exactly like her stupid husband nor her son Mace. She loves her granddaughter and wants to ensure she doesn't suffer because of her father's ambitions.

Do the Tyrells know why exactly Ned is thrown into prison? Neither Renly nor Loras are there when this happened.

Stannis sat on the Small Council for years - he and Robert were not 'estranged' - they worked together.

Nope, that's not something one can expect. Stannis could have his wife and daughter by his side - like Jon Arryn did - when he was sitting on the council. He didn't. He may have called for Selyse to join him when he had taken the throne ... or not. But even if she were at court, Selyse would never have any influence over her husband or politics because Stannis loathes women in general and Selyse in particular.

And since we can expect Stannis to want a male heir one day chances are pretty high he would be open to the suggestion to get rid of Selyse and take a new wife ... which could be Margaery's chance. Stannis would be a very ridiculous king if his only heir was a disfigured girl.

This is a ridiculous statement in light of the fact that Stannis knew that Renly was scheming to replace Cersei with Margaery. If Stannis knew Robert could have taken a new queen so could he, Stannis, as king. And Stannis loathes Selyse much more than Robert ever loathed Cersei - Robert at least desired Cersei ocassionally. Stannis is just disgusted by his wife.

We also see how Stannis effectively replaces Selyse with Melisandre in the books we are reading. She is Stannis' wife and queen in all but name. Selyse is just also there. If Stannis thought Mel could give him children he would most likely divorce Selyse as soon as he could ... but he might know that the only children Mel can give him are shadow assassins.

She does not "go on record" with anything. She tells Sansa what she wants her to think in order to win her trust. So obviously she could have prevented the entire thing just like she prevented Cersei-Willas, by hectoring Mace mercilessly until he relented. And that's if we ignore Littlefinger's account of the conversation in which he brokered the deal with her while Mace blustered. There is a reason she's called the Queen of Thorns.

Everybody knows why Ned was thrown into prison. Joffrey declared in open court, in front of Lady O's own grandsons, that he said he was not the king, and the only way to get mercy was to confess his crime and declare Joffrey the true king.

Robert rarely attended small council meetings and had virtually nothing to do with running the government or counting coppers. They did not "work together," nor did they have any great affection for each other. It's about as close to being estranged as you can be. There is absolutely no reason why Selyse would be able to influence the Reach through Robert.

Where do get the idea that he loathes Selyse? He still listens to her counsel, even if he doesn't agree with it. There is no reason at all to think that Selyse will not be at court exercising all the power she has as Queen of the Seven Kingdoms.

Stannis Baratheon is not going to murder his wife to get a male heir. The man is cold and rigid, but just and lawful to a fault. There is no way in the world the Tyrells would expect him to be like Robert and set aside his wife for a younger, prettier one. The far easier path was to match Margy to Renly first, and then Joffrey.

 

 

Edited by John Suburbs
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Posted (edited)
13 hours ago, FictionIsntReal said:

I wouldn't go so far as to say she has unlimited power over Mace in such matters. Getting her way one time doesn't mean getting her way every time. Cersei is indeed old enough to have many fewer years of fertility than Renly or Joffrey with Margaery.

His words were "pie or wine was poisoned during Purple Wedding" among the things GRRM confirmed in order to make the app. GRRM can of course change his mind, just as he has numerous times superseded earlier material with later stuff but that doesn't make it not "official". This isn't something like backstory regarding Bloodraven. We already had LF explain his role in what happened to Sansa & why the Tyrells were willing to take that poison from Sansa's hairnet.

That's officially the stance of the maester who wrote it! :)

 

I didn't say she had unlimited powers, but if she can hector him mercilessly just because Cersei is too used, what makes you think she can't do the same with Renly, a known homosexual, or a maid-beating madboy like Joffrey?

And literally, right in the same conversation with Sansa, Olenna finally shows how little she regards Mace's authority:

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"But the queen," Sansa went on, "she won't let me go . . ."

"She will. Without Highgarden, the Lannisters have no hope of keeping Joffrey on the throne. If my son the lord oaf asks, she will have no choice but to grant his request."

"Will he?" asked Sansa. "Will he ask?"

Lady Olenna frowned. "I see no need to give him a choice. Of course, he has not hint of our true purpose."

So here she is not only insulted by the idea that she can't tell Mace exactly what to do, but she knows for a fact that he will then knuckle under when it comes time to marrying is eldest son and heir to a maid of her choosing. There is a reason she's called the Queen of Thorns.

And this was not one time we see this dynamic in action:

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Mace gaped at her. "Rosby? That . . . cougher? But . . . the matter was agreed, Your Grace. Garth is on his way to Oldtown."

"Best send a raven to Lord Hightower and ask him to make certain your uncle does not take ship. We would hate for Garth to brave an autumn sea for naught." She smiled pleasantly.

A flush crept up Tyrell's thick neck. "This . . . your lord father assured me . . ." He began to sputter.

Then his mother appeared and slid her arm through his own. "It would seem that Lord Tywin did not share his plans with our regent. I can't imagine why. Still, there 'tis no use hectoring Her Grace. She is quite right, you must write Lord Leyton before Garth boards a ship.   . . ."

So here we have Olenna literally stepping between Mace and the queen, telling Mace to shut his hole and do as he's told. Can you imagine any other lord allowing his mother to upbraid him before their sovereign in this way?

 

The app is not to be relied on. Case closed. Some obscure comment on a closed web site about what was said or done long ago . . . Even worse, taking two obscure comments and extrapolating some truth. There is no reason to assume that just because  the question was asked and a decision was made proves that the wine is true. Martin isn't going to make this reveal in the app. It's going to happen in the books. All the facts point to the pie and disprove the wine, so this is not something that Martin would change his mind about -- he just hasn't chosen to reveal it yet, just like he's doing with Jon. Does the app say that Jon is not Ned's son but is in fact Rhaegar and Lyanna's?

Really, we have LF explaining it all? The biggest liar in the book. Did he explain how he managed to convince Lady Olenna to go along with this plan after it was he who lied to her in the first place to get Margy into this fix, then he never even confessed this lie? But still she trusts him so completely that she happily agreed to first give Joff the honking huge chalice that is only that much more difficult to poison and attracts attention like a giant fishing lure, then waited until Joff just happened to place it somewhere where she, a five-foot-tall woman, can reach past both Tyrion and Sansa, all the way up to a rim that is three-feet above the table and drop the poison without being seen, all the while knowing that if just one person of the thousand who are facing her direction happened to catch this little move and it's not only her but her entire family minus one heading down to the black cells to be put to the question. Oh, and where is the known liar and double-crosser when all this going on? Why, he's safe and sound out on his boat, way out in the bay, waiting to collect his prize, or split to Essos at the first sign that anything went wrong with this foolproof plan.

Yes, that's how useless the word "official" is when determining the truth of a matter. Facts are what's important here. And the incontrovertible facts confirm the wine. Wait for it. It will all be explained soon. :)

 

Edited by John Suburbs
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4 hours ago, John Suburbs said:

She does not "go on record" with anything. She tells Sansa what she wants her to think in order to win her trust. So obviously she could have prevented the entire thing just like she prevented Cersei-Willas, by hectoring Mace mercilessly until he relented. And that's if we ignore Littlefinger's account of the conversation in which he brokered the deal with her while Mace blustered.

That is pretty much baseless speculation. Willas Tyrell isn't Margaery Tyrell. Olenna dissuaded Mace from the Willas-Cersei match by pointing out that Cersei wasn't good enough for the next Lord of Highgarden ... which wouldn't have been that hard, considering who and what Cersei Lannister was. A widow who had already born children, basically royal leftovers surrounded by rather vile rumors. That's not the kind of woman you want for your heir. And Mace realized that quickly enough when his mother pointed it out.

It is also quite clear that Mace is in no rush finding a bride for Willas, considering the guy is still not betrothed. Obviously Mace was aiming for a very highborn bride there - royalty, or close enough. At first Cersei seemed to fit that bill ... until Olenna pointed out her flaws.

The idea that Mace Tyrell is 'hectored' by his mother is a misogynistic Lannister interpretation of their relationship. We never see Olenna Tyrell actually 'hector' her son. She is just blunt to the point of being insulting ... but that is actually an act, to point, considering she is actually very loyal to the Tyrell cause and her son's ambitions. And the ambitions are Mace's, not Olenna's.

There is no indication that Olenna is lying when she dismisses 'King Renly' in front of Sansa. You can also draw that from both Margaery and Alerie trying calm down the old lady ... but she doesn't have it, and that's because she is expressing her genuine political opinions there.

Olenna lacked the power to prevent the Margaery-Joffrey deal. She was interested in the true nature of Joffrey because she is smarter and more perceptive than Mace ... and that's why she takes it upon herself to rectify Mace's mistake by murdering Joffrey. All the while ensuring he still gets what he wants - his daughter as a queen.

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Everybody knows why Ned was thrown into prison. Joffrey declared in open court, in front of Lady O's own grandsons, that he said he was not the king, and the only way to get mercy was to confess his crime and declare Joffrey the true king.

So you assume that the Redwyne twins were allowed to inform Highgarden about what transpired there? They would have gotten reports about Ned's execution, of course, but that wasn't what triggered Renly's decision to be king.

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Robert rarely attended small council meetings and had virtually nothing to do with running the government or counting coppers. They did not "work together," nor did they have any great affection for each other. It's about as close to being estranged as you can be. There is absolutely no reason why Selyse would be able to influence the Reach through Robert.

That is not how patronage works. The Florents became in-laws to the royal family via the Selyse match (and in a lesser sense even via Edric Storm). Of course, it is a difference if you are the queen or just the king's sister-in-law ... but the latter isn't nothing. But it still looks like nothing. Loras becomes Renly's squire, not some Florent boy. Lannister boys become Robert's squires, not some Florent boys. Cersei has no Florent women among her ladies, and so on.

And of course Robert and Stannis 'worked together'. They may not have spend much time in their spare time, but Robert made Stannis part of his court, gave him one of the most prestigious positions in the Realm. And Robert actually did extend favors to Stannis' people as can be drawn from the favor he granted Davos once (he sent a dish to Davos' table at a feast, as the man remembers).

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Where do get the idea that he loathes Selyse? He still listens to her counsel, even if he doesn't agree with it. There is no reason at all to think that Selyse will not be at court exercising all the power she has as Queen of the Seven Kingdoms.

Stannis only starts to listen to Selyse when he realizes he has nobody else. Selyse only role is to put Melisandre in Stannis' mind and bed, that's it. Afterwards she is just 'there' again, but nobody listens to her. Or can you give us any instance where Selyse comes up with an idea Stannis then goes with? An instance where Selyse is not just one of Mel's mouthpieces? Even when Selyse pushes Stannis in the Prologue to use Mel to kill Renly and seize his army ... Selyse is speaking with Mel's voice, not her own. If Stannis had any other allies/friends he would immediately cut ties/marginalize/ignore his wife and her family. He knows what kind of a thug Axell is. And in the case we are discussing here Stannis would never need Melisandre or Selyse because he would be Robert's presumptive heir/legal successor, because Robert would die without an heir of his body after the twincest has been revealed and Cersei's children disinherited or killed.

But even if we imagine that Stannis would keep Selyse as his queen - there is little chance that he would listen to her advice if he was surrounded by people he deemed more competent.

And the idea that anyone in the Reach was fearing 'Queen Selyse, champion for Florent ambition' is completely unsupported by the text. Nowhere do the Tyrells indicate that Stannis being married to a Florent is a problem ... just as it is  no problem that Leyton Hightower and Randyll Tarly are married to Florents.

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Stannis Baratheon is not going to murder his wife to get a male heir. The man is cold and rigid, but just and lawful to a fault. There is no way in the world the Tyrells would expect him to be like Robert and set aside his wife for a younger, prettier one. The far easier path was to match Margy to Renly first, and then Joffrey.

Who said anything about murdering Selyse? Stannis could just set her aside, especially considering he had publicly converted to a new religion which could provide with a lot of pretext to claim 'he was never married properly to Selyse' or 'R'hllor allows divorce/multiple wives/whatever'. I mean, you do recall that even Selyse thinks she and Stannis should marry again in the light of R'hllor, right?

I never said the Tyrells would expect anything of this sort - I said Stannis himself could have offered them to marry Shireen to Willas and/or to set aside Selyse for Margaery and that Mace would then have seriously considered such an offer.

I never said he would have expected this - in fact, I'd think he would have been pretty surprised by such an offer. But he would have considered it. And since there is no chance he could have foreseen or expected the Lannister offer (Joff for Margaery), so if Stannis had beaten Littlefinger with such an offer chances would be pretty good that Mace would have accepted it.

That's not that hard to understand.

Edited by Lord Varys

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8 hours ago, frenin said:

Rhaenrya was already installed as the heir in detriment of Alicent's children

And Joffrey is already heir ahead of any hypothetical children from a hypothetical marriage with Margaery. I'm saying that Joffrey hating Margaery and her children wouldn't be enough to get him disinherited.

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Money, power, offices and royal grandsons

Those grandsons are going to be quite low in the succession.

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And given that Sansa was already betrothed to Joffrey, this was their only chance of getting close to the throne in this generation.

An incest reveal would render that betrothal irrelevant.

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Not the only ways.

We don't know the precise grounds on which Tyrion's marriage to Tysha was erased. They had no children, so Tywin might have just insisted on a lie of non-consummation. But I'll acknowledge it's possible he took another route by citing the lack of witnesses, the septon being drunk, and the parties being underage without parents/guardians present to give anyone away. I assume that if siblings were separated at birth and married each other unknowingly, a reveal that they were siblings would also be grounds for annulling the marriage (seeing as how Henry VIII had to get a dispensation to marry even his brother's widow, and then tried to annull it on that ground) even if there was no denying it was consummated.

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And whether Stannis benefits the most from telling Robert or not it depends entirely on Robert, whether Robert decides to name anyone but Stannis his heir or not

Robert had ALREADY named Stannis his heir when he was granted Dragonstone.

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whether Robert suddenly dies leaving Stannis as his only acknowledged heir or whether Robert doesn't simply remarry and have heirs of his own right away

Robert would probably want to remarry and produce heirs, but that last part can be easier said than done. Until it happens, Stannis is the heir. And Renly can't be sure who Robert will marry, so he doesn't have an obvious way to personally benefit.

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Stannis stands to benefit as much as Edric Storm or Mya

Perhaps you're imagining Robert legitimizes them? I suppose Mya would get to attend court, but Edric would be higher in the succession and have a noble mother (plus being raised like a highborn) would get him taken more seriously.

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Renly is usurping three people, his late brother's children and his brother. If Renly embraced the twincest and still continued his quest to get throne... he would only be usurping his brother... Why not embrace it??

He's fighting his brother right now. Why grant any of Stannis' arguments at that point when they just give an advantage to Stannis over Renly? After he kills Stannis he's free to proclaim Joffrey a bastard.

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Robert was far more beloved than Stannis will ever be, obviously from a PR perspective, usurping his legit children cannot be better than just usurping a man no one really wants as their king... So why shouldn't he parrot Stannis's tale?

He hadn't actually fought Joffrey at all yet. He was about to fight Stannis. And adults are preferred to children who require regencies, even if depriving a legit heir is bad.

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Renly stands to gain far more if he accepts the tale and just remove Stannis than if he rejects it and is forced to remove Joffrey, Tommen AND Stannis.

He has to remove all three of them either way if he wants to become king. How is he going to remove Stannis AFTER Stannis is installed? Stannis is going to immediately start "cleansing" the court of everyone he opposed under Robert to replace with others more to his liking, and he never got along with Renly.

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In fact if Renly knows from the get go... Why not simply tell Robert (or Ned) and make him become infatuated with Margaery??

He can't guarantee Robert will marry Margaery. I've already noted how Robert's unhappiness with agreeing to Jon Arryn's decision on Cersei would make him particularly unreceptive to anyone trying the same exact thing again on him.

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even after he announced his truth... no one really cared

The Lannisters did care, which is why they decided to retaliate with their own propaganda which Renly repeats. And Tywin feared Stannis the most since he was a proven commander.

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But they can be easily dissolved

Cite an example of that ever happening.

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what could Tywin really do anyway

He would rebel, and everyone would now know how little a marriage to Robert was worth.

8 hours ago, John Suburbs said:

There is no way in the world the Tyrells would expect him to be like Robert and set aside his wife for a younger, prettier one.

Of course, in canon, Robert never did that even though he hated his wife and cheated on her with younger women all the time.

8 hours ago, John Suburbs said:

I didn't say she had unlimited powers, but if she can hector him mercilessly just because Cersei is too used, what makes you think she can't do the same with Renly, a known homosexual

Is Renly going to refuse to father any children on her? Would Loras not be able to credibly claim that his knowledge of Renly and bond with him would be enough to ensure Renly did his part for the alliance?

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The app is not to be relied on. Case closed.

How can you say "case closed"? Ran said that he confirmed the specific fact of wine vs pie with GRRM. I'd treat it like a So Spake Martin entry.

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There is no reason to assume that just because  the question was asked and a decision was made proves that the wine is true. Martin isn't going to make this reveal in the app.

If Martin didn't want it confirmed he would have said not to confirm it!

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There is no reason to assume that just because  the question was asked and a decision was made proves that the wine is true. Martin isn't going to make this reveal in the app.

We already got the "reveal" when LF explained it to Sansa.

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All the facts point to the pie and disprove the wine

What are you talking about? GRRM has already laid out what the "careful reader" would conclude and he explains Olenna's motivation for killing Joffrey specifically. Why would a "careful reader" by ignoring "all the facts"?

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he just hasn't chosen to reveal it yet, just like he's doing with Jon

GRRM just refuses to comment/confirm on questions relating to that. He doesn't say what a "careful reader" should conclude about that.

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Really, we have LF explaining it all?

Yes, and in this case the stuff he says checks out. Dontos really was working for him, Dontos had said the hairnet would win Sansa her freedom, and Olenna fiddled with it to the point where a stone went missing.

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But still she trusts him so completely that she happily agreed

She was concerned about Joffrey's nature, and then Sansa confirmed the stories LF's entourage had spread. She wanted Joffrey gone and replaced by Tommen. LF was leaving for the Vale, so he wouldn't personally around to screw with anything. If Sansa doesn't have on the poison hairnet as promised, then Olenna is stuck with Joffrey as a son-in-law but isn't any worse off than she would have been after the marriage if she hadn't agreed to the assassination plot.

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the honking huge chalice that is only that much more difficult to poison

How is it "difficult to poison"? A small stone would dissolve relatively easily in a large quantity of wine without being noticeable.

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somewhere where she, a five-foot-tall woman, can reach

She doesn't have to deliver the poison herself. She can just hand it off to someone else. Like Garlan.

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And the incontrovertible facts confirm the wine.

I'm glad you now agree it was the wine instead of the pie!

8 hours ago, Lord Varys said:

That is pretty much baseless speculation.

It's certainly speculation, but it's not "baseless" to think Olenna is withholding the truth when Sansa wonders how the Tyrells can have such a blase reaction about Joffrey, and then LF reveals it was Olenna who poisoned him.

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that's because she is expressing her genuine political opinions there

Her "genuine political opinion" was that Joffrey needed to be murdered, she certainly wasn't going to openly express that. Harmless grandma too beyond politics to care how people react to her statements is partly an act.

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An instance where Selyse is not just one of Mel's mouthpieces?

Wasn't it her idea to marry Gerrick's daughters to some of her Queen's Men? I don't think Mel cares much about that.

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But even if we imagine that Stannis would keep Selyse as his queen

We don't have to "imagine", it's what he actually did. And Stannis certainly claims to be a king, with all the legal authority of one.

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'R'hllor allows divorce/multiple wives/whatever'

I don't think Stannis gets to just make that bit up, it would depend on what R'hllor actually allows.

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I mean, you do recall that even Selyse thinks she and Stannis should marry again in the light of R'hllor, right?

That is an additional bit of evidence for religious conversion being grounds to dismiss an old marriage. I think the practical issue here is that even if Stannis is publicly embracing a new religion, he's going to be ruling over a lot of vassals who'll regard their marriages under the Seven (or Old Gods, now that he's gone north) as valid and can't assume they're all going to convert.

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@FictionIsntReal

 

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And Joffrey is already heir ahead of any hypothetical children from a hypothetical marriage with Margaery. I'm saying that Joffrey hating Margaery and her children wouldn't be enough to get him disinherited.

 

 I'm not arguing he would, i'm saying that the comparisons are simply not similar. It's up to Robert, Aegon 4 or Viserys to decide whether they want to disown or cut off the succesion their formal heirs or not. 

Viserys did with Daemon badmouthed his dead son, Robert didn't seem willing to do it and Aegon was not willing to pay the price for it. Yet there is really no law or precedent that points the circumstances in which the crown prince can be disowned, it's always up to the king and whatever he feels he can get away with.

 

 

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Those grandsons are going to be quite low in the succession.

Yet they are still royal, not everything is about succesion. Walder Frey has ton of children and great  grandchildren and still he gets prestigious houses to marry into his house even when there's no chance for them to get the Twins.

 

 

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An incest reveal would render that betrothal irrelevant.

Aren't you arguing in the very same way you complained the other user?? Yes, an incest reveal would render that betrothal irrelevant but we don't know whether Renly (and the Tyrells) knew or didn't.

 

 

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We don't know the precise grounds on which Tyrion's marriage to Tysha was erased. They had no children, so Tywin might have just insisted on a lie of non-consummation. But I'll acknowledge it's possible he took another route by citing the lack of witnesses, the septon being drunk, and the parties being underage without parents/guardians present to give anyone away. I assume that if siblings were separated at birth and married each other unknowingly, a reveal that they were siblings would also be grounds for annulling the marriage (seeing as how Henry VIII had to get a dispensation to marry even his brother's widow, and then tried to annull it on that ground) even if there was no denying it was consummated.

Fair enough, but there have been Kings setting aside wives in the past, the concept simply isn't new, not people believe it impossible,

 

 

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Robert had ALREADY named Stannis his heir when he was granted Dragonstone.

He named him his presumptive heir 15 years before. Quite a lot can happen in those years, especially that a relationship that was never good in the first place soured even more. Dragonstone is now nothing more than a lordship.

 

 

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Robert would probably want to remarry and produce heirs, but that last part can be easier said than done. Until it happens, Stannis is the heir. And Renly can't be sure who Robert will marry, so he doesn't have an obvious way to personally benefit.

  1. Fair enough.
  2. Stannis is only the heir if Robert wants him to be and that ranges from unclear to very unlikely, there is absolutely nothing, no legal grounds no iron clad precedent a la 101 council. that "impedes" Robert from simply acknowledging a bastard in the meantime. And if there is someone for whom people will be ready to look the other way so long he doesn't get more power, that is Stannis.
  3. So long Robert gets rid of Cersei he will personally benefit!! The only reason Renly wants Robert to remarry is because he knows Cersei wants him dead, he was more than ready to let Joffrey reign so long it was Ned and not the Lannisters the one who took control of the kingdom.

 

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Perhaps you're imagining Robert legitimizes them? I suppose Mya would get to attend court, but Edric would be higher in the succession and have a noble mother (plus being raised like a highborn) would get him taken more seriously.

Well yes, legitimization is the mosto obvious way for a bastard to benefit. Sure, if either Mya or Edric get legitimized, they become Barathenons and thus are well above Stannis or Renly in the line.

 

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He's fighting his brother right now. Why grant any of Stannis' arguments at that point when they just give an advantage to Stannis over Renly? After he kills Stannis he's free to proclaim Joffrey a bastard.

He's only fighting Stannis because Stannis chose to bring the fight to him. He was fighting Joffrey while still acknowledging him as Robert's trueborn son and he was able to raise the largest army Westeros had ever seen,  he explicitly makes clear that even if Stannis's claim is true, it would not matter to him one bit, his 100k army had already proven that they didn't care whether Renly was usurping Stannis or Joffrey, neither did the folk for that matter.

What advantage thus had Stannis?? The moral ground?? They didn't care, while discrediting Joffrey and Tywin right from the bat actually made things easier for him.

 

 

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He hadn't actually fought Joffrey at all yet. He was about to fight Stannis. And adults are preferred to children who require regencies, even if depriving a legit heir is bad.

By naming himself King he had chosen to fight Joffrey, he didn't call him bastard then, months before Stannis even made his bid to the throne. 

Adults are preferred over children, usurping adults are not preferred over legitimate children heirs. 

 

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He has to remove all three of them either way if he wants to become king. How is he going to remove Stannis AFTER Stannis is installed? Stannis is going to immediately start "cleansing" the court of everyone he opposed under Robert to replace with others more to his liking, and he never got along with Renly.

In one case he has to remove, two bastards and an older brother, in the other case he has to remove the trueborn sons of his older brother the king and his other older brother... Which case looks better??

I don't understand what the latter has to do with what we're discussing.

 

 

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He can't guarantee Robert will marry Margaery. I've already noted how Robert's unhappiness with agreeing to Jon Arryn's decision on Cersei would make him particularly unreceptive to anyone trying the same exact thing again on him.

But he sure as hell can guarantee that Robert will get rid of Cersei (and the Lannister by proxy) which is the only reason he wanted Robert to marry Margaery in the first place!! 

 

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The Lannisters did care, which is why they decided to retaliate with their own propaganda which Renly repeats. And Tywin feared Stannis the most since he was a proven commander.

The Lannisters didn't care, Cersei did. None of the lords of the Realm was swayed to Stannis's side because of his twincest, he had to murder his brother to actually have a chance to get the throne.

 

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Cite an example of that ever happening.

Didn't i just pass you the link where it's explained with its sources?

 

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He would rebel, and everyone would now know how little a marriage to Robert was worth.

And he would be destroyed fairly quickly, i'm sure that some would, yet when the bachelor king were to knock on their door, no one would say no.

Why would he rebel anyway?? So long Joffrey and Tommen are set to inherit first? 

 

 

On 3/19/2021 at 4:44 PM, John Suburbs said:

Where do get the idea that he loathes Selyse? He still listens to her counsel, even if he doesn't agree with it. There is no reason at all to think that Selyse will not be at court exercising all the power she has as Queen of the Seven Kingdoms.

In the very introduction of the books.

 

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 There was no affection in his tone. Stannis had always been uncomfortable around women, even his own wife. When he had gone to King’s Landing to sit on Robert’s council, he had left Selyse on Dragonstone with their daughter. His letters had been few, his visits fewer;

The only times Stannis even bothers to listen to his wife is when he's desperate. I don't think that a King Stannis would be desperate.

 

On 3/19/2021 at 4:44 PM, John Suburbs said:

Stannis Baratheon is not going to murder his wife to get a male heir.

He murdered his brother to get his army.

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I always thought Mace was smarter than he acted and his oafishness was just a ruse to get his adversaries to underestimate him. Maybe it's just Olenna's influence or maybe not, but the Tyrells have done well enough for themselves under him.

The decision to commit to a lengthy siege saved the lives and treasure of his house. If the Targaryens won he "helped" and would react the rewards at no cost. As things were, he just dipped his banners and called it a day. 

In the War of the Five Kings, he may not be one of the kings, but he's definitely played the role of Kingmaker. If Renly won, he would've ridden it all the way to the top. As things are he jumped ships to the Lannisters and still haven't lost many men or treasure. Though that may be starting to change with the Ironborn raiding and the Lannister star sinking. As things are, he probably could be the next regent just by putting a piece of paper in front of Tommen for him to stamp. Heck, his options are still open if (f)Aegon looks like a winner and he wants to jump ship again since Maegary is still "unsoiled" technically. 

Maybe he might have been smarter to stay out of the game, but he's been rolling the dice to get to the top. So far it seems to be working.

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There are a couple of things you have to understand here:

1. It is Renly's idea/plot to make Margaery Robert's queen. How do we know that? Because it is Renly who is walking around with a picture of Margaery, it is Renly who Stannis says wanted to put Margaery in Robert's bed, and it is Loras (most likely at Renly's behest) who writes letters to Highgarden urging Mace to send Margaery to court.

If this were a Tyrell plot, then nobody would have to urge Mace to send Margaery to court - they would come there themselves. And if Loras rather than Renly had come up with the idea then Margaery would have accompanied Loras when he arrived at court for the Tourney of the Hand. But she didn't - despite the fact that Renly was scheming in that direction since before Stannis had left court before AGoT even started. He wouldn't have known about that plot if it had only been cooked up after he left.

2. Mace's idea to make his daughter a queen only started with the Renly plan - he cannot have been all that positive about the Robert plan, or else Margaery would have shown up at KL before Robert's death. There was more than enough time for that.

3. After Renly's death the Tyrells do not pursue a 'Margaery must be queen' policy until the Lannister offer arrives. That would give them the same prestige and power as the original Renly deal, so why not take it?

4. Everything we know indicates Renly had no idea about the twincest. If he had, he wouldn't have needed Margaery Tyrell to destroy Cersei. And if he didn't already want to be king around the time Robert died - as quite a few people believe and the offer he made to Ned may indicate - then he would also have no big problem if Robert were succeeded by Stannis. It would move Renly closer to the Iron Throne than if any of Cersei's children inherited, since Shireen would likely never succeed Stannis while Renly or any sons of Renly were still alive.

What people don't seem to get is that, for the most part, Renly is using the Tyrells to his advantage, not the other way around. Renly seduces Loras, not the other way around (which we can draw from the fact that Loras was deeply in love with Renly whereas there is no indication Renly was deeply in love with Loras ... and we do have indication Renly may have led a promiscuous lifestyle at court), Renly uses his relationship to Loras to try to convince Mace to get onboard the Margaery plot ... and later to support his bid for the Iron Throne.

It is Renly all those young knights and lords from the Reach and the Stormlands adore and worship.

But Renly wouldn't have needed any of that if he had known about the twincest. He would have just destroyed Cersei and Jaime and then he would have helped Robert clean up the Lannister mess, possibly offering the help of his good friends, the Tyrells, as well as suggesting that young Margaery might make a good queen. Or not - because Renly goal was to get rid of Cersei, it was not to make a Tyrell the new queen. That was a means to an end - destroy Cersei - not the end.

5. It is also kind of silly to assume the twincest was an 'open secret' at court. Pretty much nobody knew about that. Stannis suspected something, and Jon eventually shared his suspicions ... but neither had evidence much less proof. Pycelle later indicates he may have known ... but that's at a time after Stannis has sent his letters, so we don't know whether the penny dropped before or after he heard about the letter.

Littlefinger acts as if he knew when Ned tells him ... but how did he find out we don't know. We know Lysa went to him for help when Jon threatened to foster little Robert on Dragonstone and then they killed Jon together ... so chances are not that bad that Lysa told Littlefinger about what Jon and Stannis were investigating and he first heard about the twincest that way.

Varys would have known for a long time, but aside from him I don't think any other person actually *knew*.

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Posted (edited)
3 hours ago, Lord Lannister said:

If the Targaryens won he "helped"

I will never understand Mace's bad rep for his role in the Robellion among the fandom. He did more than any other loyalist leader combined, whose only contribution to the war was losing to Robert, losing to Ned or losing to both.

Mace's vanguard actually inflicted Robert his only defeat (to date), he cut him off of  his power base, he occupied the Stormlands and he would've gotten Storm's End had it not been for Davos. He also contributed  with levies for the Trident.

People blame Mace's actions because the rest of the loyalist completely shat the bed and a smuggler passing through his fleet which is pretty unfair. Perhaps he should've been given the command on the Trident, it was impossible to do worse than Rhaegar and the Kingsguard.

 

Ofc he helped, without him, Robert would have roamed free in the south without anyone to stop him.

 

Edited by frenin

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11 hours ago, frenin said:

He murdered his brother to get his army.

Renly was trying to usurp him, and would not mind if Stannis got killed.

Stannis had years to get a new wife yet he didn't, but he will murder Selyse?

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11 hours ago, saltedmalted said:

Renly was trying to usurp him, and would not mind if Stannis got killed.

 

Renly was usurping Joffrey, Stannis had not even pushed his claim when Renly was crowed.

11 hours ago, saltedmalted said:

Stannis had years to get a new wife yet he didn't, but he will murder Selyse?

Without any doubt yes. Stannis killed his brother and tried to kill his own nephew.

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17 hours ago, frenin said:

I will never understand Mace's bad rep for his role in the Robellion among the fandom. He did more than any other loyalist leader combined, whose only contribution to the war was losing to Robert, losing to Ned or losing to both.

Mace's vanguard actually inflicted Robert his only defeat (to date), he cut him off of  his power base, he occupied the Stormlands and he would've gotten Storm's End had it not been for Davos. He also contributed  with levies for the Trident.

People blame Mace's actions because the rest of the loyalist completely shat the bed and a smuggler passing through his fleet which is pretty unfair. Perhaps he should've been given the command on the Trident, it was impossible to do worse than Rhaegar and the Kingsguard.

 

Ofc he helped, without him, Robert would have roamed free in the south without anyone to stop him.

 

Well, in my case I wonder why Aerys didn’t light a fire under Mace, figuratively speaking to get his flowery rear in gear and kick some stag butt. How many people do you need to siege a small castle like Storm’s End?

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On 3/19/2021 at 12:28 PM, Lord Varys said:

That is pretty much baseless speculation. Willas Tyrell isn't Margaery Tyrell. Olenna dissuaded Mace from the Willas-Cersei match by pointing out that Cersei wasn't good enough for the next Lord of Highgarden ... which wouldn't have been that hard, considering who and what Cersei Lannister was. A widow who had already born children, basically royal leftovers surrounded by rather vile rumors. That's not the kind of woman you want for your heir. And Mace realized that quickly enough when his mother pointed it out.

It is also quite clear that Mace is in no rush finding a bride for Willas, considering the guy is still not betrothed. Obviously Mace was aiming for a very highborn bride there - royalty, or close enough. At first Cersei seemed to fit that bill ... until Olenna pointed out her flaws.

The idea that Mace Tyrell is 'hectored' by his mother is a misogynistic Lannister interpretation of their relationship. We never see Olenna Tyrell actually 'hector' her son. She is just blunt to the point of being insulting ... but that is actually an act, to point, considering she is actually very loyal to the Tyrell cause and her son's ambitions. And the ambitions are Mace's, not Olenna's.

There is no indication that Olenna is lying when she dismisses 'King Renly' in front of Sansa. You can also draw that from both Margaery and Alerie trying calm down the old lady ... but she doesn't have it, and that's because she is expressing her genuine political opinions there.

Olenna lacked the power to prevent the Margaery-Joffrey deal. She was interested in the true nature of Joffrey because she is smarter and more perceptive than Mace ... and that's why she takes it upon herself to rectify Mace's mistake by murdering Joffrey. All the while ensuring he still gets what he wants - his daughter as a queen.

So you assume that the Redwyne twins were allowed to inform Highgarden about what transpired there? They would have gotten reports about Ned's execution, of course, but that wasn't what triggered Renly's decision to be king.

That is not how patronage works. The Florents became in-laws to the royal family via the Selyse match (and in a lesser sense even via Edric Storm). Of course, it is a difference if you are the queen or just the king's sister-in-law ... but the latter isn't nothing. But it still looks like nothing. Loras becomes Renly's squire, not some Florent boy. Lannister boys become Robert's squires, not some Florent boys. Cersei has no Florent women among her ladies, and so on.

And of course Robert and Stannis 'worked together'. They may not have spend much time in their spare time, but Robert made Stannis part of his court, gave him one of the most prestigious positions in the Realm. And Robert actually did extend favors to Stannis' people as can be drawn from the favor he granted Davos once (he sent a dish to Davos' table at a feast, as the man remembers).

Stannis only starts to listen to Selyse when he realizes he has nobody else. Selyse only role is to put Melisandre in Stannis' mind and bed, that's it. Afterwards she is just 'there' again, but nobody listens to her. Or can you give us any instance where Selyse comes up with an idea Stannis then goes with? An instance where Selyse is not just one of Mel's mouthpieces? Even when Selyse pushes Stannis in the Prologue to use Mel to kill Renly and seize his army ... Selyse is speaking with Mel's voice, not her own. If Stannis had any other allies/friends he would immediately cut ties/marginalize/ignore his wife and her family. He knows what kind of a thug Axell is. And in the case we are discussing here Stannis would never need Melisandre or Selyse because he would be Robert's presumptive heir/legal successor, because Robert would die without an heir of his body after the twincest has been revealed and Cersei's children disinherited or killed.

But even if we imagine that Stannis would keep Selyse as his queen - there is little chance that he would listen to her advice if he was surrounded by people he deemed more competent.

And the idea that anyone in the Reach was fearing 'Queen Selyse, champion for Florent ambition' is completely unsupported by the text. Nowhere do the Tyrells indicate that Stannis being married to a Florent is a problem ... just as it is  no problem that Leyton Hightower and Randyll Tarly are married to Florents.

Who said anything about murdering Selyse? Stannis could just set her aside, especially considering he had publicly converted to a new religion which could provide with a lot of pretext to claim 'he was never married properly to Selyse' or 'R'hllor allows divorce/multiple wives/whatever'. I mean, you do recall that even Selyse thinks she and Stannis should marry again in the light of R'hllor, right?

I never said the Tyrells would expect anything of this sort - I said Stannis himself could have offered them to marry Shireen to Willas and/or to set aside Selyse for Margaery and that Mace would then have seriously considered such an offer.

I never said he would have expected this - in fact, I'd think he would have been pretty surprised by such an offer. But he would have considered it. And since there is no chance he could have foreseen or expected the Lannister offer (Joff for Margaery), so if Stannis had beaten Littlefinger with such an offer chances would be pretty good that Mace would have accepted it.

That's not that hard to understand.

Sorry Varys, but no. Mace backs down because Cersei is too old and used, but he cares nothing that mad psycho Joffrey will beat Margy to an inch of her life the moment he gets his hands on her? Without Margaery, there is no alliance, remember? Try again.

Olenna didn't "point out her flaws." She hectored him mercilessly until he relented. This is not a "mysogynistic Lannister interpretation." We see this with our own eyes, at Tywin's funeral. And we also see this in the very same conversation where Olenna first pretends that iron-willed Mace is hell bent on marrying Margaery to mad Joffrey, but then:

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"But the queen," Sansa went on, "she won't let me go . . ."

"She will. Without Highgarden, the Lannisters have no hope of keeping Joffrey on his throne. If my son the lord oaf asks, she will have no choice but to grant his request."

"Will he?" asked Sansa. "Will he ask?"

Lady Olenna frowned. "I see no need to give him a choice. Of course, he has no hint of our true purpose."

So here she is not only commanding her son to bring Sansa to Highgarden, she is also planning the marriage of his son and heir without his knowledge, confident that he will do her bidding when he's told. And she is actually insulted at the notion that Mace has any say in the matter. This is how you can spot a liar: when they say one thing one minute and another in the next.

I am sure that Olenna's views on Renly are exactly as she says, but that doesn't mean she is not the one to arrange the marriage. Renly is just a means to an end. He is the best king they have and all they need from him is his seed. Olenna is equally dismissive about virtually everyone else, including her oaf son whom she supposedly fears so very much.

Lady Olenna is already fully aware of the true nature of Joffrey. Every person who has ever seen him, including Loras, Horace, Hobber, their pages, squires, servants and even Renly himself, who would have regaled her nightly about all the skeletons in the Baratheon closet, would have told her the same thing: he's a rotten little shit. The only person to tell her otherwise is Littlefinger, and we are expected to believe that based on that lie and that lie alone the Tyrells agreed to the match. And when she does discover this lie, not from Petyr but from Sansa, we are expected to believe that she is such a great fool that she instantly agrees to this plan where she gives him the huge chalice first, then she must somehow poison it at a time when the entire Tyrell family, everyone she holds near and dead, are in the throne room surrounded by Lannister guards -- and all the while the known unrepentant liar and double-crosser is safe and sound out on his boat, way out in the bay, waiting to collect his prize, or split to Essos should anything go wrong. Sorry, but no, no, no, no.

The Redwyne twins only became hostages after Highgarden declared for Renly. They were members of court for at least a year before that, maybe longer. And once Lady Olenna arrived in KL as a Lannister ally, she would have had ample opportunity to meet with her grandsons and learn all that they had seen and heard.

Exactly, sister-in-law to the king is in no position to broker marriages in the Reach. But a queen can, especially when the king has no reason to reward the ruling family that tried to usurp his rightful crown. And again, no, Stannis is not the sort of man to break his vows and defy his church (whichever one he follows now) to dispose of his wife. Melisandre might do that on her own if her fires direct her to, but there is absolutely no way the Tyrells would or could count on that to put Margaery on the throne. That's just ridiculous.

Robert sent Davos a meal once and somehow this gives Selyse the ability to overrule marriages in the Reach? Are you kidding?

Stannis appointed Alester as Hand, after Alester originally supported Renly. Do you think Selyse had nothing to do with that decision? Then he burned him alive Was this over Selyse's objections? She was quite pleased with it, IIRC. He also brings her to the Wall when he could have easily left her on Dragonstone to an uncertain fate. Stannis keeps his own counsel. He also dismissed Axell's war plans, but keeps him on as a war commander. Selyse isn't savvy on war and politics, but that doesn't mean that Stannis is just going to dump her.

Nowhere in the text does it say that Jon is the son of Rhaegar and Lyanna. Connecting the dots is one of the best things about reading Martin. The Florents are "dreadful" and have a better claim to Highgarden. Those are the dots, just like Sweetrobin's fostering dispute was one of the dots to the truth behind the Arryn murder.

Stannis cannot just "set her aside", not if he wants a stable realm. His hold on the throne would be very shaky, and making the faith his newest enemy is the last thing he would want to do. He would be wiser to get rid of Mel at that point. And none of this is a better option for the Tyrells than to just marry Margy to the brother who is single, and then use their might to destroy Stannis and his meager forces before marching on KL and taking the throne.

If Stannis wanted to offer Shireen (who is what, all of 9 at this point?) to 30+/- Willas Tyrell, he would have done so. But the fact is that once Ned had been cast down and it was clear that Joffrey would hold the throne for now, there was no time because Renly immediately fled to Highgarden. 

If this offer was presented, then Mace would have blustered just like he did when Joffrey was offered, and Lady Olenna would have rejected it because it would put a dreadful Florent on the throne who could then marginalize Tyrell power in the Reach and enhance the Florent's. This is what the Game of Thrones is all about. It's not hard to understand.

 

 

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On 3/19/2021 at 8:47 PM, FictionIsntReal said:

Of course, in canon, Robert never did that even though he hated his wife and cheated on her with younger women all the time.

Is Renly going to refuse to father any children on her? Would Loras not be able to credibly claim that his knowledge of Renly and bond with him would be enough to ensure Renly did his part for the alliance?

How can you say "case closed"? Ran said that he confirmed the specific fact of wine vs pie with GRRM. I'd treat it like a So Spake Martin entry.

If Martin didn't want it confirmed he would have said not to confirm it!

We already got the "reveal" when LF explained it to Sansa.

What are you talking about? GRRM has already laid out what the "careful reader" would conclude and he explains Olenna's motivation for killing Joffrey specifically. Why would a "careful reader" by ignoring "all the facts"?

GRRM just refuses to comment/confirm on questions relating to that. He doesn't say what a "careful reader" should conclude about that.

Yes, and in this case the stuff he says checks out. Dontos really was working for him, Dontos had said the hairnet would win Sansa her freedom, and Olenna fiddled with it to the point where a stone went missing.

She was concerned about Joffrey's nature, and then Sansa confirmed the stories LF's entourage had spread. She wanted Joffrey gone and replaced by Tommen. LF was leaving for the Vale, so he wouldn't personally around to screw with anything. If Sansa doesn't have on the poison hairnet as promised, then Olenna is stuck with Joffrey as a son-in-law but isn't any worse off than she would have been after the marriage if she hadn't agreed to the assassination plot.

How is it "difficult to poison"? A small stone would dissolve relatively easily in a large quantity of wine without being noticeable.

She doesn't have to deliver the poison herself. She can just hand it off to someone else. Like Garlan.

I'm glad you now agree it was the wine instead of the pie!

 

Right, even Robert hadn't gotten to the point of dumping Cersei after 15 years. So why on earth would they think rigid, letter-of-the-law Stannis would suddenly up and dump his legally-wedded wife just because Margaery winks at him? Stannis hates women, while Robert loved them. Even Cersei admits she has no chance of seducing Stannis.

Renly will certainly do his duty to his wife. But the wine theory posits that Olenna is so concerned about Margaery's happiness that she will kill a king who might, without any evidence supporting this, someday hurt her. If she cared that much for Margy, and she can hector Mace out of a bride who is simply "too used", then she would not subject her to a husband who will reject her unless absolutely necessary in favor of her own brother.

This is the same silly argument that has D&D correctly guessing Jon's mother as proof that Rhaegar is Jon's father. Just because a question is asked doesn't mean the truth is what is used in a show, or an app. Martin is simply not going to reveal something of this magnitude in an app, any more than he'll drop it in the wiki. I don't have the app, so tell me, does it say that Jon is the son of Rheagar and Lyanna as well? Or is he listed as Ned's bastard, because that's what all the text says.

Again with LF's explanation. Did you read my reply to that last time? How did LF manage to convince a smart cookie like Lady O to take on all the risks, both with herself and her entire family, while LF is safe on his boat, when it was LF who lied in the first place and then never even came clean about that lie? In what universe do you imagine that Lady Olenna Tyrell, the woman who successfully navigated her way through a hopelessly patriarchal society to become the titular head of the most powerful house in the realm, is in reality such a complete simpleton?

Yes, what the "careful reader" would conclude, which is a far cry from saying "the actual truth is . . ." All the facts in the text point to the pie: the physical facts, the logistics, the actions of the principal plotters both before and after . . .  And even GRRM's "explanations" contradict themselves. He says it was to kill him and make it look like an accidental choking. Then how on earth did they expect Tyrion to be accused of a crime? How would they expect him to choke on his pie when he's drinking toast down on the floor, not sitting at his seat eating his own pie? Why would they give him this honking huge chalice to begin with, only to make it that much more difficult to poison? And if it was the wine, why not just have Joffrey drink his wine, grab his throat and die? Why go on for another 500 words or so in a book that it already twice as long as the other two for no reason, no point, no purpose . . .

Sit tight friend. It will all be explained shortly.

Yes, Littlefinger set up Dontos and the hairnet, and convinced Lady O to take the poison -- which, again, she has no reason to trust Petyr if the intent is to kill Joffrey. But show me where LF says that the wine was poisoned? Even Dontos in the godswood says Joffrey choked on pigeon pie. Why would he say that if the poison was in the wine? Nobody would have any reason to suspect Joffrey would be eating any pie at this point, , let alone Tyron's, since he is supposed to be down on the floor accepting toasts?

Yes, again, Sansa confirms these stories, not Littlefinger. So as far as Lady O is concerned, LF would have been more than happy to see Margy dragged off to the bedding chamber to be gutted and fileted by little worm-lips. So how on earth does he then trick her into taking all the risks with this plan while he is safe and sound, and introduce the giant chalice to make this risky operation even riskier, for her?

And if you look closely, the only stories that Sansa confirms are already widely known. He offered mercy if Ned confessed, then took his head and called it mercy. The offer was made in open court, in full view of numerous high lords and ladies, including Olenna's own grandsons. And just like court today, everything that is said and done in court is written down and disseminated across the land so everyone is up to date on the events of the realm, and so the maesters can write the history of Joffrey I Baratheon. Then, at the Sept of Baelor no less, right after Ned did confess, Joffrey announced publicly to a large crowd of highborn and commoners alike, that despite the pleadings of his mother and betrothed, he is taking Ned's head anyway. This was HUGE NEWS across the land. Ravens are dispatched to every seat in the realm, including the rebel-held castles of Riverrun and Highgarden. Dany hears about this in Quarth before Sansa and Olenna sit down to dinner. There is absolutely no way this is news to Lady Olenna, and in fact we know that it isn't because the first thing Olenna does upon meeting Sansa is offer condolences for her father.

Likewise, Sansa's beatings are no secret. The mere fact that she is seen at court all bloodied and bruised can mean only one thing: Joffrey is doing it. Nobody else could do this to her and live. But even if this is being done secretly, the door was thrown wide open after Oxcross when Joffrey, again in front of numerous lords and ladies, including Olenna's own grandsons, order the KG to strip and beat Sansa. So Lady O has plenty of reliable sources who can say they saw all of this with their own eyes. She does not need to confirm any of it from a complete stranger like Sansa. Now, if you're interested, I can tell you what Lady O is really after in this conversation. She needs to learn the truth about someone, but it's not Joffrey.

Plus, we have the fact, incontrovertible fact, that Joffrey poses absolutely no danger to Margaery. Look at him at the wedding. He is pleased as punch to be marrying this hot 17yo rather than mopey, scrawny Sansa. And Margaery is a master seductress, having learned from the best in the business: Lady Taena Merryweather and Lady Olenna herself. She is going to take Joffrey into that bedding chamber and do things for him and to him that he can't even imagine right now. It will be a long, long time before she has to worry about a cross word from him, let alone physical violence. And by then, of course, she will have one, two, maybe three heirs to the throne, and they can get rid of Joffrey at any time, privately, not directly in front of a thousand witnesses, and then Margaery rules as regent until her son is of age. This is far, far better than waiting five years for Tommen, during which time the unconsummated marriage can be set aside at any time for any reason, only to have Margaery relegated to queen consort with very little power of her own.

Also note that Joffrey does not just go around beating up maids just for fun. What happened to Sansa was for reasons that are unique to Sansa, namely:

  • She is completely alone in the capital. She has no father, brothers, guards, men-at-arms, soldiers, nobody to protect her. Margaery has the full might of Highgarden at her back
  • Sansa has a history with Joffrey to make him loathe her personally. She witnessed him cry like a baby on the Trident, and frankly, Sansa goes out of her way to anger him, belittle him, correct him and generally stay on his bad side. Margaery plays him like a fiddle.
  • Sansa's family is in open rebellion to the crown, and Robb is currently in the Westerlands winning battles and killing Lannisters on Lannister soil. Peace with Margaery's family is the only thing keeping Joffrey on the throne at the moment.

The idea that Joffrey is going to start beating Margy just because he beat Sansa is as silly as the idea that he will now execute Mace just because he executed Ned. Different people, different circumstances, different relationships with Joffrey, different outcomes. And if Joff ever did have a mind to publicly, or even privately, give Margy a beating, there is always Grandpa Tywin, Uncle Jaime, and others who will tell him very forcefully what a stupid thing that is to do.

So any way you look at it, the wine theory fails. Literally everything is wrong about it. But the pie fits everyone's actions, motivations and all circumstances like a glove. 

What's so difficult about the chalice? Rather than just reaching to the rim of a normal goblet, maybe six or eight inches off the table, she now has to reach up three feet. Place a yardstick straight up on your own kitchen table and then imagine if you were five feet tall and had to reach between two ornate chairs with two people standing right in front of them, and then a good arm's length into the table, three feet up, all without being seen by even one of the thousand people who are facing in your direction. It's simply impossible. And no, Garlan could not have done it either because he was at least three places away from Sansa where the chalice is.

Thanks, nice catch. Pie, not wine.

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