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Relic

NBA 2021 - Randle Hearts

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12 hours ago, Relic said:

I can't cheer for DRose, sadly. He was accused of a pretty heinous crime, and I wish he wasn't on the team. 

I didn't know that.

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1 hour ago, Proudfeet said:

Jinxed. :P

Yeah i fucking knew it. =/ 

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1 hour ago, DireWolfSpirit said:

I didn't know that.

The details are pretty bad. 

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Lottery odds watch: Wolves have passed the Magic and the Thunder actually won a game. They had a good chance of getting into the bottom three as the Wolves, Pistons and Magic were due wins playing each other. That win might be what keeps them out.

Of course, there's still the actual lottery so record doesn't translate directly but with all the injuries at the top, there's little else to be excited about before the playoffs start. Record doesn't matter. Getting and staying healthy does.

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Regards to the whole tank situation-

2021 NBA Draft Lottery Odds

These tables show the percent chance to end up with each pick after the lottery.
The last column shows the expected value, or average pick position, for each seed.
Scroll lower to see the base odds when no ties are included.
Current Odds With Ties Included
Positions resulting in a trade are highlighted in red. Not all trades (swaps) shown.
TEAM 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 AVG
hou.png
 
 
14.0 13.4 12.7 12.0 47.9                   3.7
orl.png
 
 
14.0 13.4 12.7 12.0 27.8 20.0                 3.9
min.png
 
 
14.0 13.4 12.7 12.0 14.8 26.0 7.0               4.1
det.png
 
 
12.5 12.2 11.9 11.5 7.2 25.7 16.7 2.2             4.4
okc.png
 
 
10.5 10.5 10.6 10.5 2.2 19.6 26.7 8.7 0.6           5.0
cle.png
 
 
9.0 9.2 9.4 9.6   8.6 29.8 20.6 3.7 0.2         5.5
sac.png
 
 
7.5 7.8 8.1 8.5     19.7 34.1 12.9 1.3 >0.0       6.2
tor.png
 
 
6.0 6.3 6.7 7.2       34.5 32.1 6.8 0.4 >0.0     7.0
chi.png
 
 
4.5 4.8 5.2 5.7         50.7 25.9 3.0 0.1 >0.0   8.0
was.png
 
 
2.5 2.7 3.0 3.4           65.9 21.0 1.4 >0.0 >0.0 9.4
no.png
 
 
2.5 2.7 3.0 3.4             75.6 12.4 0.4 >0.0 10.2
ind.png
 
 
1.5 1.7 1.9 2.1               86.1 6.7 0.1 11.4
gs.png
 
 
1.0 1.1 1.2 1.4                 92.9 2.3 12.5
sa.png
 
 
0.5 0.6 0.6 0.7                   97.6 13.7
Base Odds Without Ties
SEED 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 AVG
1 14.0 13.4 12.7 12.0 47.9                   3.7
2 14.0 13.4 12.7 12.0 27.8 20.0                 3.9
3 14.0 13.4 12.7 12.0 14.8 26.0 7.0               4.1
4 12.5 12.2 11.9 11.5 7.2 25.7 16.7 2.2             4.4
5 10.5 10.5 10.6 10.5 2.2 19.6 26.7 8.7 0.6           5.0
6 9.0 9.2 9.4 9.6   8.6 29.8 20.5 3.7 0.1         5.5
7 7.5 7.8 8.1 8.5     19.7 34.1 12.9 1.3 >0.0       6.2
8 6.0 6.3 6.7 7.2       34.5 32.1 6.7 0.4 >0.0     7.0
9 4.5 4.8 5.2 5.7         50.7 25.9 3.0 0.1 >0.0   8.0
10 3.0 3.3 3.6 4.0           65.9 19.0 1.2 >0.0 >0.0 9.2
11 2.0 2.2 2.4 2.8             77.6 12.6 0.4 >0.0 10.3
12 1.5 1.7 1.9 2.1               86.1 6.7 0.1 11.4
13 1.0 1.1 1.2 1.4                 92.9 2.3 12.5
14 0.5 0.6 0.6 0.7                   97.6 13.7
DETERMINING THE NBA DRAFT ORDER
1
All teams missing the playoffs are in the Lottery
2
Teams with worse records get more chances at winning a top four pick (more ping pong ball combos)
3
The 1st overall pick is awarded by a drawing of ping pong balls
4
The 2nd overall pick is awarded by a drawing of ping pong balls
5
The 3rd overall pick is awarded by a drawing of ping pong balls
6
The 4th overall pick is awarded by a drawing of ping pong balls
7
Remaining lottery teams, sorted by record, fill out picks 5-14
8
Playoff teams, sorted by record, are assigned picks 15-30 - playoff seeds and outcomes have no impact
9
Random drawing decides who picks first between teams with same record
10
Tied lottery teams split their ping pong balls evenly, and any odd remainder and the better draft order position are given to the random drawing winner
11
Second round is ordered by record without playoff consideration

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Posted (edited)

And now currently it's even more convoluted  as I see Houston followed by a 3 way tie of 2nd worse teams, with Detroit, Orlando and Minnesota all sitting at 19 wins.

Edited by DireWolfSpirit

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7 minutes ago, DireWolfSpirit said:

followed by a 3 way tie of 2nd worse teams, with Detroit, Orlando and Minnesota all sitting at 19 wins.

Game on!

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Posted (edited)
14 hours ago, DMC said:

Game on!

I know right, the race to the bottom is our most exciting part of NBA 2021.

Edited by DireWolfSpirit

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Fucking hell we're about to win our fourth straight, and I think we're like .500 now over the last 22 games. 

Shit....

At least we got a potential star in Edwards.

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6 hours ago, Tywin et al. said:

Fucking hell we're about to win our fourth straight, and I think we're like .500 now over the last 22 games. 

Shit....

At least we got a potential star in Edwards.

do you guys lose the pick if its not top 3?

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2 hours ago, Relic said:

do you guys lose the pick if its not top 3?

Yup, and it goes to the Warriors in this stacked draft.

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Honest question. Is there any draft which is regarded as weak before the draft? It seems that every year they say that its a strong or deep draft.

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59 minutes ago, Proudfeet said:

Honest question. Is there any draft which is regarded as weak before the draft? It seems that every year they say that its a strong or deep draft.

Yes.  Last year's draft was obviously weak and people said it beforehand (albeit I'm sure there were some who didn't).  As a Magic fan I can recall two other historically weak drafts - 2000 and 2013.  The latter ended up having Giannis and Rudy Gobert, but, obviously, no one knew they'd be that good at the time.  The Magic picked Oladipo second and frankly that was a pretty good pick, if entirely uninspiring at the time.

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And often people say "deep" to mean "the top 3 guys aren't that great, but there are at least more decent players than usual". 

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26 minutes ago, DMC said:

Yes.  Last year's draft was obviously weak and people said it beforehand (albeit I'm sure there were some who didn't).  As a Magic fan I can recall two other historically weak drafts - 2000 and 2013.  The latter ended up having Giannis and Rudy Gobert, but, obviously, no one knew they'd be that good at the time.  The Magic picked Oladipo second and frankly that was a pretty good pick, if entirely uninspiring at the time.

 

12 minutes ago, Maithanet said:

And often people say "deep" to mean "the top 3 guys aren't that great, but there are at least more decent players than usual". 

Thanks. I don't follow NCAA at all so it all melds together for me. 

Somewhat related, what is the minimum expectation of picks to not be considered busts? 

For example, 

1-3 at least an all-star appearance

4-5 max contract

6-10 starter on any team not having an all star at the position

11-15 reliable bench minutes

16-20 able to package in a trade

21-30 expectations so low you can't bust

Obviously it changes depending on expectations of a specific player, and teams generally hope for more, but where do people draw the line for picks to be busts? 

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2 hours ago, Proudfeet said:

 

Thanks. I don't follow NCAA at all so it all melds together for me. 

Somewhat related, what is the minimum expectation of picks to not be considered busts? 

For example, 

1-3 at least an all-star appearance

4-5 max contract

6-10 starter on any team not having an all star at the position

11-15 reliable bench minutes

16-20 able to package in a trade

21-30 expectations so low you can't bust

Obviously it changes depending on expectations of a specific player, and teams generally hope for more, but where do people draw the line for picks to be busts? 

I would say any pick can be a bust, it's just understood that busts are very common on picks after 15, and happen like 80% of the time for second rounders.  Any pick after 15 or so, you are hoping for at least a guy who can provide reliable bench minutes, and hopefully grow into more.  If you can't be a contributor on the second unit, then you aren't going to be in the NBA long. 

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36 minutes ago, Maithanet said:

I would say any pick can be a bust, it's just understood that busts are very common on picks after 15, and happen like 80% of the time for second rounders.  Any pick after 15 or so, you are hoping for at least a guy who can provide reliable bench minutes, and hopefully grow into more.  If you can't be a contributor on the second unit, then you aren't going to be in the NBA long. 

Some players can appear to be busts early because of lack of production too but that can also be misleading.  Toronto for example pretty much always makes rookies play a year (or most of it) in the GLeague just to get reps.  Siakam, Van Vleet, Boucher and Flynn this year all were made to do that.  it can skew early numbers.

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1 hour ago, Maithanet said:

I would say any pick can be a bust, it's just understood that busts are very common on picks after 15, and happen like 80% of the time for second rounders.  Any pick after 15 or so, you are hoping for at least a guy who can provide reliable bench minutes, and hopefully grow into more.  If you can't be a contributor on the second unit, then you aren't going to be in the NBA long. 

Busts are really common for lottery picks too. The term is completely arbitrary and everyone has a different definition, and that's before you consider injury busts or guys who are viewed as busts because the guy who went after them turned out to be great. For me, you're a true bust if you were drafted very high with widespread expectations that you never lived up to. I'm not going to call a guy drafted 8th overall, started a few years, rode the bench for a few years and was out of the league after five years a real bust because he was never expected to change the fortunes of the team that drafted him. 

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Not sure if I've ever seen something like this before:

 

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