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jamesmustain

Robb's best option???

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17 minutes ago, Hugorfonics said:

But also not on KL side. 

Robb lost because he was murdered by Walder (and a little bit Ramsay)  and his war only died with him. Lannister, Tyrell, Stannis on Blackwater, meaningless. Sure lots of the Riverlands were on fire, but so was the western and crownlands

The original post was asking for Robb's best option for survival. Not getting murdered by the Freys is obviously a good start (tongue firmly in cheek) but the Riverlands was going to be a major problem for him. He can't really win from there (not without more allies) but he could definitely lose if he's forced to keep fighting there. I'm not sure cutting the Riverlands loose and just sticking with the North was actually an option.

Edited by Groo
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8 minutes ago, Groo said:

I'm not sure cutting the Riverlands loose and just sticking with the North was actually an option.

would have been a heck of a betrayal. couldn't have looked his mom in the eye if he did it and he might have found himself fighting his way back to the neck.

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5 minutes ago, Universal Sword Donor said:

The RL were pretty much toast when the Tyrells signed on. Even if the Vale came into the fold and Roose / Walder don't betray him, realistically Robb is looking down the barrel of of 100K strong coalition versus 40-45k. He'd have no way to keep the RL, makes a lot more sense to retreat behind the bloody gate and MC. The only thing preventing a naval incursion of either land is the ersatz navies -- we have no idea of the Vale naval power -- and Stannis holding DS. It's more or less a bluffing game until Robb and / or the Vale negotiates a surrender and bends the knee to Joffrey / Tommen.

Your missing a couple of kingdoms

3 minutes ago, Groo said:

The original post was asking for Robb's best option for survival. Not getting murdered by the Freys is obviously a good start (tongue firmly in cheek) but the Riverlands was going to be a major problem for him. We can't really win from there (not without more allies) but he could definitely lose if he's forced to keep fighting there. I'm not sure cutting the Riverlands loose and just sticking with the North was actually an option.

Robb left his wife in the Riverlands so Im sure he wasnt giving up. 

Robb could still win, dudes undefeated on the field. Allies arent needed, but more enemies for KL wouldnt hurt. Dorne, Essos, the fact that Cersei creates her own enemies.

Its not like the Riverlands are actually subdued even now

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39 minutes ago, Hugorfonics said:

Allies arent needed, but more enemies for KL wouldnt hurt. Dorne, Essos, the fact that Cersei creates her own enemies.

Its not like the Riverlands are actually subdued even now

Fair points.

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The Starks were in bad shape.  They lost the north and Robb had betrayed Walder.  It was a lost cause but perhaps he could still save his life if he can make it back to Winterfell.  Sansa and Arya would be killed but that is what happens in war.  

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It's hard to say.

Robb still could've won the war (or at least, kept fighting until the Lannister/Tyrell conjunction was pressured to come to the table) had it not been for the Red Wedding.

If the Vale is allowed to support the Stark/Tully cause, then Robb doesn't really even need to make amends with the Freys. Robb can leave most of his army south of the Neck and have the Valemen go to cleanse the North of the Ironborn. doesn't even need to return to the North.

Had the Stark-Tully alliance been joined by the Arryns, Walder Frey might've thought twice about betraying Robb Stark. As a matter of fact, Walder Frey might not have been able to put Robb in a bind by demanding that Robb and Arya both marry Freys.

Robb should've immediately made overtures to the Martells of Dorne. Even if it included marrying Sansa, himself, and/or Arya off.

So yeah, Robb still could've won. He doesn't even have to win, he could've just held off long enough for the Lannisters to self-destruct and for the Martells and Tyrells to start picking at each other. As Tyrion says, some allies are more dangerous than enemies and the Lannisters' alliances with the Tyrells, Freys and Martells and the presence of bad actors within House Lannister like Jaime and Cersei are proving to be their undoing.

The Freys are a non-factor if Robb played his cards right. The Boltons are the true threats as is Sybell Westerling and people tend to forget that.

 

On 3/10/2021 at 12:40 PM, Jay21 said:

By this time it's too late isn't it?

What if he personally left with the Myraham and made his way to Whiteharbour, could he have raised another force ( a year or so later) and sorted out the north while his River Lords held in the Riverlands (for years)? Could he have hired a free company or two to return with? Honestly he was done by this point, if it wasn't Jamie it was the Karstarks and if it wasn't the Karstarks it was the Westerling marriage. How rotten was Roose and when did he flip? Even if Robb had managed to sidestep the Red Wedding he still had a traitor in his councils... 

 

Roose was always rotten. Robb's intuition told him as much in that one Bran chapter in A Game of Thrones but Robb - per usual - failed to listen to his intuition.

As for when he flipped? It seems like he flipped in A Clash of Kings.

It's hard to say when but his alliance with Tywin seems to have been official in Arya's last chapter (10 I believe). But Roose was probably thinking about betraying Robb much earlier on. He probably would've thrown Robb under the bus for Stannis...

On 3/10/2021 at 9:32 PM, saltedmalted said:

If ASoIaF were realistic then the Iron Throne would have lost all power by the beginning of ACoK.

Well, I don't know about that.

While I do think that the Iron Throne should've only been able to control King's Landing (the Crownlands would've been lost), I think the realities that the Baratheon brothers were contesting the right to sit the Iron Throne and that the Iron Throne itself was being supported by Tywin Lannister and the Westerlands kept the Iron Throne relevant and somewhat powerful.

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Roose flipping: is Ramsay operating under Roose’s orders when he goes on all his hijinks from  forcibly marrying Lady Hornwood to the Sack of Winterfell, everything except the Ironborn invasion?

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2 hours ago, Angel Eyes said:

Roose flipping: is Ramsay operating under Roose’s orders when he goes on all his hijinks from  forcibly marrying Lady Hornwood to the Sack of Winterfell, everything except the Ironborn invasion?

No orders to sack winterfell. Maybe Hornwood but very doubtful, just listen to the guy

Quote

It is not good. No tales were ever told of me. Do you think I would be sitting here if it were otherwise? Your amusements are your own, I will not chide you on that count, but you must be more discreet. A peaceful land, a quiet people. That has always been my rule. Make it yours."

Roose ordering Bolton men to physically engage with their Manderly and Hornwood allies over the publicly forced marriage and flay of Lady Hornwood is out of character for soft talking Roose. His son on the other hand is totally in character.

But lets humor ourselves, Ramsay writes daddy a letter, as Ser Rodrik is within eye distance, "Hornwood plan went south, switching clothes with Reek, fool proof plan"... Or is it "good suggestion about switching clothes with Reek, why didnt I think of that"? (Where this raven was sent, how it was sent or why Rodrik didnt shoot it down are good questions)

Now hes in jail, a cup of coffee and a cigarette later Theons in charge. No ravens here. Theon allows Ramsay walks to the mill and back but like all happy faces in the princes winterfell hes met with lots of paranoia and death threats, really low fucking chance of any ravens here, Luwin being all Luwiny. (Another conundrum, wheres the birdie going? South? Does Ramsay know his father was given large components of the army? Does he know about Harrenhal? Of course not, how could he.)

And lastly Ramsay shows up to Dreadfort and asks a ragtag group of not cool enough to go to war security guards to conquer Winterfell, eradicate the Starks, thwart the ironborns campaign and destroy all royal forces north of 42nd street. Wow, he forget to tell him to do the dishes.

For a kid he spends no time with hes awfully trusting him a lot in this raven that really has no chance of being in his inbox

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On 3/11/2021 at 2:01 PM, Hugorfonics said:

Your missing a couple of kingdoms

Dorne is already allied with the Lannisters via Myrcella / Trystane. SL are already allied to the throne as are the Westerlands. The IB are attacking his kingdom. Not liable to find allies amongst those three, which leaves us with the Vale.

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31 minutes ago, Universal Sword Donor said:

SL are already allied to the throne as are the Westerlands.

SL are not "allied" to the throne in a meanigful sense. After Stannis' defeat the place is in tatters. They are missing real leadership.

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1 minute ago, saltedmalted said:

SL are not "allied" to the throne in a meanigful sense. After Stannis' defeat the place is in tatters. They are missing real leadership.

Half of the SL are fighting for Joffrey / Tommen during the Wo5K. 1/4 are sitting out the war and a few are under GC control now. Regardless of whether or not they are allied formally or not, they are not an option for Robb to court for boosting his army.

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1 minute ago, Universal Sword Donor said:

Half of the SL are fighting for Joffrey / Tommen during the Wo5K.

I don't remember this. Please send me the quote.

1 minute ago, Universal Sword Donor said:

they are not an option for Robb to court for boosting his army.

I agree. 

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22 minutes ago, saltedmalted said:

I don't remember this. Please send me the quote.

 

OK, here it is. Sansa VIII ACoK.

Quote

There were great lords and noble knights in that company too: sour old Lord Celtigar, the Red Crab; Ser Bonifer the Good; Lord Estermont, more ancient even than Celtigar; Lord Varner, who hobbled the length of the hall on a shattered knee, but would accept no help; Ser Mark Mullendore, grey-faced, his left arm gone to the elbow; fierce Red Ronnet of Griffin Roost; Ser Dermot of the Rainwood; Lord Willurn and his sons Josua and Elyas; Ser Jon Fossoway; Ser Timon the Scrapesword; Aurane, the bastard of Driftmark; Lord Staedmon, called Pennylover; hundreds of others. Those who had changed their allegiance during the battle needed only to swear fealty to Joffrey, but the ones who had fought for Stannis until the bitter end were compelled to speak. Their words decided their fate. If they begged forgiveness for their treasons and promised to serve loyally henceforth, Joffrey welcomed them back into the king’s peace and restored them to all their lands and rights. A handful remained defiant, however.

 

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3 hours ago, Universal Sword Donor said:

Dorne is already allied with the Lannisters via Myrcella / Trystane

Myrcella is about to get an assassination attempt that leaves her disfigured while her soon to be brother in law is going to be her soon to be late brother in law, with dragons, and her potential sister in law is potentially treasonous. Doran meanwhile is obsessed with the downfall of Lannister and thats not even getting into the sandsnakes or dornish riots over the Viper, the most colorful of all these bright Martells

3 hours ago, Universal Sword Donor said:

SL are already allied to the throne

I feel like some are with Stannis still. Giantslayer and them. They dont seem like Florents.

3 hours ago, Universal Sword Donor said:

as are the Westerlands

The Westerlands are about to lose their lord to an assassin, then the assassin will be going home to claim his birthright

3 hours ago, Universal Sword Donor said:

The IB are attacking his kingdom

The IB king also will soon get murdered and his murderer will get the hell outta that kingdom to head to Tyrell. Or Dany. Did I mention Dany?

3 hours ago, Universal Sword Donor said:

Not liable to find allies amongst those three

The Sunset kingdoms are not about allies, theyre about realizing they hate their friends more then their enemies.

3 hours ago, Universal Sword Donor said:

which leaves us with the Vale.

Right. Dude, the world spins. The sun rises and falls. Like Lysa.

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9 minutes ago, Hugorfonics said:

Myrcella is about to get an assassination attempt that leaves her disfigured while her soon to be brother in law is going to be her soon to be late brother in law, with dragons, and her potential sister in law is potentially treasonous. Doran meanwhile is obsessed with the downfall of Lannister and thats not even getting into the sandsnakes or dornish riots over the Viper, the most colorful of all these bright Martells

I feel like some are with Stannis still. Giantslayer and them. They dont seem like Florents.

The Westerlands are about to lose their lord to an assassin, then the assassin will be going home to claim his birthright

The IB king also will soon get murdered and his murderer will get the hell outta that kingdom to head to Tyrell. Or Dany. Did I mention Dany?

The Sunset kingdoms are not about allies, theyre about realizing they hate their friends more then their enemies.

Right. Dude, the world spins. The sun rises and falls. Like Lysa.

Robb dies before Myrcella is attacked, Tywin assassinated, and Balon kicks the bucket. Stannis has upwards of 800 total SLers with him. Dany is 10000 miles away and as of ASOS refers to his father as Rober's dog. And we can't ignore that she turns down an alliance offer with Dorne.

Since we're talking about Robb, we need to talk about his options as they stood before the RW. He doesn't really have any unless the Vale comes in the war, and we know they don't. His best option is to either make amends with the crown or give up the RL.

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29 minutes ago, Universal Sword Donor said:

And we can't ignore that she turns down an alliance offer with Dorne.

She turned down a frogs hand, digits, not fealty to his sovereign. Ser Barristan however, on behalf of Dany, cosigned an alliance with the Windblown and the ghost of Quentyn Martell who acted as cosign to Doran the prince of Dorne.

Quote

"The rest you'll have in Dorne," Quentyn insisted. "My father is a man of honor. If I put my seal to an agreement, he will fulfill its terms. You have my word on that."

 

29 minutes ago, Universal Sword Donor said:

Since we're talking about Robb, we need to talk about his options as they stood before the RW. He doesn't really have any unless the Vale comes in the war, and we know they don't. His best option is to either make amends with the crown or give up the RL.

I disagree, as did ye young wolf as he left Jeyne in Riverrun. 

I believe the best strategy for the RL is what Edmure was doing the whole time, defending every inch of territory while the Riverland inhabitants grow more aggressive under Berics ever growing army. Meanwhile the clock does tick, Myrcella would be able to hear it if she wasnt missing an ear

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