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U.S. Politiks: The Manchin-ian Candidate


Secretary of Eumenes

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I really don't think people realize what a big fucking deal this bill is yet, or Biden's vision on it. He gave cover for tons of progressives and non-centrists to work through this, gave them a whole lot of things that they wanted, didn't push too hard on the things that he couldn't get for other reasons (the minimum wage), stayed on message and didn't attack anyone who disagreed slightly. He had been requesting this amount since before he got elected, he made it a priority when he did get elected, and now it got done. 

The anti-poverty measures alone make this bill something that could be transformative for decades. There's a lot of other things there - GOP is right that this is something of a wishlist bill for Dems - but it's also super popular and likely will become even more popular as the years go on and people realize how beneficial things like the child tax credits are. 

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16 minutes ago, Karlbear said:

There's a lot of other things there - GOP is right that this is something of a wishlist bill for Dems - but it's also super popular and likely will become even more popular as the years go on and people realize how beneficial things like the child tax credits are. 

The bill overall is likely to be polarized as the midterms approach.  Certain aspects, like the child tax credits, will remain popular of course - and GOP incumbents will shamelessly take credit for them (e.g. Wicker) - but constant attacks will eventually get GOP voters to align in opposition.

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3 minutes ago, DMC said:

The bill overall is likely to be polarized as the midterms approach.  Certain aspects, like the child tax credits, will remain popular of course - and GOP incumbents will shamelessly take credit for them (e.g. Wicker) - but constant attacks will eventually get GOP voters to align in opposition.

Probably? But only some. I think a lot of people are going to associate Biden with the pandemic ending (if that happens) and the money in their pockets, and even polarization is hard to beat that sort of thing entirely. 

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1 minute ago, Karlbear said:

Probably? But only some. I think a lot of people are going to associate Biden with the pandemic ending (if that happens) and the money in their pockets, and even polarization is hard to beat that sort of thing entirely. 

Yes, I think (and certainly hope) it will remain relatively popular - and even transcend polarization a bit.  However, looking at the recent polls and its current popularity, I'd just emphasize its ceiling come next November is probably around where the CNN/SSRS poll puts it at (61%) - and even that is probably a bit too optimistic, plus the opposition will be higher.  As opposed to the 75% Politico/Morning Consult puts it at or the 70% Pew has it at.

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25 minutes ago, Chataya de Fleury said:

I wonder if you might underestimate how batsh1t and doubled-down the GOP is.

On the other hand, if this means more centrists basically writing off the GOP, it’s a great outcome. I don’t think the current incarnation of that party is winning over suburban women, for example.

I have agree with this.  The conservative trolls infesting my Facebook see only the harm in this bill, loudly lamenting all of the 'extras' beyond the next stimulus check and vaccine money, forecasting a bleak future of massive tax hikes to pay for all this.  (they also seem unable to comprehend - literally - that congress has the power of the purse and the democrats lack the votes for a tax hike.)  They are adamant that 'democrat' = 'communist,' and Biden is 'China Joe' - a senile child molester Chinese puppet (backed up with conspiracy theories about Hunter)  And of course, Biden is out for their guns and to take away other (usually unspecified) rights.  Disturbingly, they believe Trump was popular based largely on the size of his rallies - no other metrics matter.  

 

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1) I believe the new child tax credit takes affect next year? I hope parents remember who they have to thank for that. 

 

2) The saga of the neighbor's Trump flag is over. Both it, and the "Not My President" flag are gone. Looks like I got that picture just in time. They've been replaced by some Christian flag. White with a blue square and a red cross.

Now the only Trump flag left in the area is the guy who lives in the corner of the street. Like 10 houses down.

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3 hours ago, Karlbear said:

Probably? But only some. I think a lot of people are going to associate Biden with the pandemic ending (if that happens) and the money in their pockets, and even polarization is hard to beat that sort of thing entirely. 

But would this carry over to Vice President Harris if Biden isn't able to run in 2024 for any reason.

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It also looks like a lot of Republicans are going for the "What about the prisoners getting stimulus checks? Doesn't that make you angry?" message. In the hopes that the "fuck other people" vibe outweighs the "this is good for me" vibe; which, unfortunately, often does work, at least for Republican-leaning voters (plus their base of course).

Nevermind that the stimulus checks that went out last year while Trump was in office also went to prisoners.

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5 minutes ago, Fez said:

It also looks like a lot of Republicans are going for the "What about the prisoners getting stimulus checks? Doesn't that make you angry?" message. In the hopes that the "fuck other people" vibe outweighs the "this is good for me" vibe; which, unfortunately, often does work, at least for Republican-leaning voters (plus their base of course).

Nevermind that the stimulus checks that went out last year while Trump was in office also went to prisoners.

Republicans are bad faith actors. And in Breaking News: Water is WET!!!

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27 minutes ago, Chataya de Fleury said:

My “fuck other people” vibe only runs as far as “as long as the economy as a whole doesn’t sink.”

Because I do have a vested interest in the economy not sinking and the stock market being real and not a “game” that some yahoos are “playing” in their mother’s basement.

Eh? Are you trying to shame poor people for living in their mother’s basement?

What are you, a Republican? :P
 

I lived with my mother for years as an adult. I gave her $500 a month. It worked out for both of us. I had a place to stay. She got an extra $6,000 a year. 

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43 minutes ago, A True Kaniggit said:

But would this carry over to Vice President Harris if Biden isn't able to run in 2024 for any reason.

It's doubtful the relief bill will be a salient issue come 2024, at least directly.  Insofar as it impacts the economy/recovery from covid, certainly.  In that vein, Harris would own it just as much as Biden if she were the nominee.

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11 minutes ago, A True Kaniggit said:

Eh? Are you trying to shame poor people for living in their mother’s basement?

What are you, a Republican? :P
 

I lived with my mother for years as an adult. I gave her $500 a month. It worked out for both of us. I had a place to stay. She got an extra $6,000 a year. 

Hey. She has a son living in her basement.

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President Biden's address was a good one.  I admit to tearing up when he also expressed the pain of people who have lost loved ones, lost not to the virus, but for other illnesses and accidents, and how we too were not able to have proper funerals and wakes and memorials.  That really hit me hard, for some reason.

He used good words and structure.  He did it well.

 

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22 minutes ago, Fragile Bird said:

Hey. She has a son living in her basement.

 

51 minutes ago, Chataya de Fleury said:

Because I do have a vested interest in the economy not sinking and the stock market being real and not a “game” that some yahoos are “playing” in their mother’s basement.

Sorry. I didn’t get the joke then. 
 

From the bolded it look like she was using the old “in their mother’s basement” line as an insult. 

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2 minutes ago, Chataya de Fleury said:

He’s literally living in my....well, upstairs second bedroom, the first floor is my office. And on Robinhood all day.

As I said. I’m sorry.

I misinterpreted the bolded as an attack on people living in their mothers basements.

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The important thing is we stop stigmatizing basements.  My childhood home had the most awesome basement ever.  I still genuinely miss it when I visit my parents' new house.  Stupid Florida not having any basements.

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8 minutes ago, DMC said:

The important thing is we stop stigmatizing basements.  My childhood home had the most awesome basement ever.  I still genuinely miss it when I visit my parents' new house.  Stupid Florida not having any basements.

Dang. I don’t want to take this thread too far off the rails. 

Tomorrow evening, I’ll make a basement thread. 

Because you’re right. A well kept basement is a thing of beauty. And they need to be discussed. 

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57 minutes ago, DMC said:

The important thing is we stop stigmatizing basements.  My childhood home had the most awesome basement ever.  I still genuinely miss it when I visit my parents' new house.  Stupid Florida not having any basements.

The basement in my childhood home looked like it was built for a serial killer.

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