U.S. Politiks: The Manchin-ian Candidate

[Walter the Singing Wildcat]

I can't tell how seriously to take RonJon's maybe not gonna run in 2022.  Seems like a not Trumpy Senator's move a la Toomey and Blount.  Would def prefer he run and lose to step down but figure he is a danger to win if he sticks around as incumbent.  

[DMC]

8 minutes ago, Walter the Singing Wildcat said:

I can't tell how seriously to take RonJon's maybe not gonna run in 2022.

Every action he's taken over the past couple years screams that he's running again.  I don't get why he's flirting with retirement, but yeah, I'll believe it when I see it.

[Jaxom 1974]

3 hours ago, DMC said:

Ron Johnson says he didn't feel threatened Jan. 6. If BLM or Antifa stormed Capitol, he 'might have.'

Somebody really needs to beat the shit out of this fuck next year.

 

1 hour ago, DMC said:

Every action he's taken over the past couple years screams that he's running again.  I don't get why he's flirting with retirement, but yeah, I'll believe it when I see it.

Really hope he doesn't run, but if he does, I'm so looking forward to voting against him...and encouraging everyone I know to do the same...

[ThinkerX]

5 hours ago, DMC said:

Every action he's taken over the past couple years screams that he's running again.  I don't get why he's flirting with retirement, but yeah, I'll believe it when I see it.

maybe, just maybe there is an incipient scandal on the horizon?  like maybe he followed the pattern of other top Trump fans and he could be linked to a giant pile of missing money?

[Rippounet]

Hey guys, just a quick message to say I'm fine, I'm just taking a break from current US politics. And because I'm focusing on other stuff, I really don't have much to contribute these days. But I'm alive and around, don't worry. Anyway, take care y'all.

[A True Kaniggit]

9 minutes ago, Rippounet said:

Hey guys, just a quick message to say I'm fine, I'm just taking a break from current US politics. And because I'm focusing on other stuff, I really don't have much to contribute these days. But I'm alive and around, don't worry. Anyway, take care y'all.

Very good. We would be next to nothing if we lost our French allies. 

[Martell Spy]

11 minutes ago, Rippounet said:

Hey guys, just a quick message to say I'm fine, I'm just taking a break from current US politics. And because I'm focusing on other stuff, I really don't have much to contribute these days. But I'm alive and around, don't worry. Anyway, take care y'all.

How do we know this isn't Myshkin?

[Zorral]

37 minutes ago, Rippounet said:

Hey guys, just a quick message to say I'm fine, I'm just taking a break from current US politics. And because I'm focusing on other stuff, I really don't have much to contribute these days. But I'm alive and around, don't worry. Anyway, take care y'all.

Hooray!  So glad to see you and know you're OK.  Wish we all could take a break from US politics.  All politics, for that matter.  Sigh.

[Mindwalker]

45 minutes ago, Rippounet said:

Hey guys, just a quick message to say I'm fine, I'm just taking a break from current US politics. And because I'm focusing on other stuff, I really don't have much to contribute these days. But I'm alive and around, don't worry. Anyway, take care y'all.

Great to hear from you, I was starting to get worried.

I had planned to extricate myself from US politics as soon as the former guy was out of office, but I'm having trouble disengaging...

[Mr. Chatywin et al.]

1 hour ago, Martell Spy said:

How do we know this isn't Myshkin?

I think it's Zombie Ripp trying to trick us.

[Mindwalker]

On a brighter note...

Speaking of justice, I wouldn't put my money on Vance (even though Glenn is, as usual, more optimistic)

Btw., what happens if Vance indicts and the case doesn't wrap before his time in office is up?

[DMC]

41 minutes ago, Mindwalker said:

Btw., what happens if Vance indicts and the case doesn't wrap before his time in office is up?

Vance would be prosecuting the case on behalf of New York County.  It won't go away just because he's leaving office at the end of the year.  Of course, his successor may choose to proceed in a significantly different way.  However, given the partisan composition - not to mention the incredible exposure of potentially prosecuting Trump - it seems quite unlikely that any successor would back off for any political reasons (unless, say, Biden's DOJ requested them to do so).

[Zorral]

My gosh those Garland guards have Peaky Blinders cuts!

[Walter the Singing Wildcat]

Some bro (no, not me) was on NPR and was like "legal exposure doesn't really mean that much."  

Dude was very clearly hoping that Neal Katyal would die in a fire even though they both seemed to think other stuff was the same.

Naturally, all of this confused me.  

And now I bet it confuses you too

[Fez]

Here's a fun one: It seems that about 25% of House members are anti-vaxxers. https://www.axios.com/congress-schedule-vaccinations-2f2a1aca-2204-4f54-a396-c9939fe28c05.html

That's how many haven't gotten the shot, despite Congress having its own supply reserved for them. There may be a handful that have PEG allergies (though I think that's super rare) or otherwise have been given medical advice to not get it; but the vast majority seem to just be refusing to get the shot. And the problem is that Pelosi has been holding out on returning to regular voting procedures until more members are vaccinated, which keeps slowing things down to a crawl (and makes stuff like Taylor-Greene's pointless motions actually eat up time).

At this point, I'm really hoping Pelosi will just decide that its on their own heads to not protect themselves. And if a bunch of Republicans (or exceptionally stupid Democrats; a la RFK Jr.) catch COVID, it's really their own fault now.

ETA: typo

[DMC]

1 minute ago, Fez said:

Here's a fun one: It seems that about 25% of House members are anti-vaxxers.

Saw that.  Frankly I thought it'd be higher.

[IheartIheartTesla]

25% of House is basically 50% of Republicans. which almost exactly mirrors the population of the US Republicans who are COVID vaccine skeptics based on polls. Not that the House GoP is a microcosm of conservatives in general (any elite subset never is), but it isnt that strange when you think about it.

[Fez]

9 minutes ago, IheartIheartTesla said:

25% of House is basically 50% of Republicans. which almost exactly mirrors the population of the US Republicans who are COVID vaccine skeptics based on polls. Not that the House GoP is a microcosm of conservatives in general (any elite subset never is), but it isnt that strange when you think about it.

Republicans are worse at it, but there are unfortunately anti-vaxxer Democrats as well. The kind who are I think are even less likely to be elected to Congress, but they do exist.

We're talking about a bit over 100 representatives here. If I had to guess, I'd say that probably 10-15 are Democrats, and the rest are Republicans.

[Martell Spy]

South Emerges As Flashpoint Of Brewing Redistricting Battle
Of the 10 new congressional seats expected this year, six are likely to be in Southern states

https://www.huffpost.com/entry/south-emerges-as-flashpoint-of-brewing-redistricting-battle_n_604f4effc5b6cf72d0982aec

Quote

 

The party is already eyeing targets. In Georgia, they can choose whether to target Democratic Reps. Lucy McBath or Carolyn Boudreaux or both by adding more conservative voters from far north of Atlanta to the two lawmakers’ districts.

In Florida, they could try to swamp Democratic Rep. Stephanie Murphy’s district with new GOP voters as they carve out a new seat in the Orlando area, one of the two the state is expected to add.

And in Texas, which is expected to gain a whopping three congressional seats, the most of any state, the GOP may try to carve out more seats in the center of their state’s boom — Democratic-leaning Houston — that could still elect Republicans.

Currently, a gain of five seats would hand control of the House to the GOP. That number may rise or fall before November 2020 depending on the outcome of special elections for several vacant seats.

 

 

[Fez]

32 minutes ago, Martell Spy said:

South Emerges As Flashpoint Of Brewing Redistricting Battle
Of the 10 new congressional seats expected this year, six are likely to be in Southern states

https://www.huffpost.com/entry/south-emerges-as-flashpoint-of-brewing-redistricting-battle_n_604f4effc5b6cf72d0982aec

 

It's going to be interesting (and terrifying) to see how it all plays out. As the article notes, a lot of these states grew in population due to Democratic leaning voters. On top of that, some of them are already pretty fully gerrymandered. Plus, its very hard to gauge the pace of demographic change in some of these places and overly aggressive gerrymanders could turn into dummy-manders very quickly. 

On top of that, while Democrats did not make the legislative gains last November that were hoped for, they are in a better position than 2010. And in states like PA, WI, and MI redistricting will probably end up being done by courts after Democratic governors and Republican legislatures stalemate. But because those states were all Republican gerrymanders in 2010, a non-partisan map would still net a few seats for Democrats.

And then there's New York. In 2010, Republicans still held their endless grip on the state senate, so it was a compromise map; now it's all Democrats. The current delegation is a 19-8 Democratic advantage. New York is probably losing 1 seat. It would not be that hard to draw a 23-3 Democratic map and net 4 seats right there. If Democrats went extreme, and did the NYC baconmander, they could draw a 26-0 map. I doubt that happens because of the endless upstate-downstate divide, but it is possible. This is a Biden+23 state remember.

So there are factors to balance out Florida for instance, which is only a 16-11 Republican map right now.