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Covid-19 #27: A Handful of Stars, A Fistful of Dollars


Fragile Bird

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"How the West Lost Covid
How did so many rich countries get it so wrong? How did others get it so right?"

Very long, informative read.  Highly recommended.

https://nymag.com/intelligencer/2021/03/how-the-west-lost-covid-19.html

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...There is what Crotty described to me as a version of the “hygiene hypothesis” — the possibility that regular exposure to pathogens generally might train your immune system like it does your gut biome. There is the catchall of “cultural forces,” covering everything from multigenerational living and employment structures to cheek-kissing and handshakes.

I could go on: residential density, blood type, vitamin D, ICU capacity, proximity to bats. But any time you try to put a finger on a single, dominant factor, the disease slips away, defying reductive models and suggesting counterpoints and counterfactuals: Japan is old, Brazil is largely tropical, England is an island, and there’s hardly any air conditioning in France. And even beyond all of those factors, with relative impacts of unclear scale, there is what the controversial Stanford epidemiologist John Ioannides recently called the “chaos” of the disease  — the seemingly random, and still mysterious, dynamics of spread, even beyond stochasticity, which can be at least mathematically modeled....

. . . . And yet for all that mystery, one distinct pattern stands out, with national outcomes falling into three obvious clusters whose basis and cause may be investigated for decades as the most significant feature of the whole global pandemic.

In Europe, North America, and South America: nearly universal failure. In sub-Saharan Africa and South Asia: high caseloads and low death rates, owing largely to the age structure of populations. In East Asia, South-East Asia and Oceania: inarguable success. You can compare countries within these clusters, and wonder why Canada has outperformed the U.S. or why Uruguay has outshone Argentina, why Iran suffered so much or how Japan, which never locked down and never tested all that widely, succeeded so brilliantly. But the differences in outcomes between the groups of nations are far greater than those within them, so much so that they appear almost as the burn scars of entirely different diseases. By damage, the coronavirus has not been a “Chinese flu” but a western malady, and if you were making guesses about how a particular nation has fared, by far the most significant piece of data would be where on the planet it was located. . . . 

 

Among other information this piece iterates, is, again, which we all should know by now, that the real center of infection for 'the West' wasn't Asia, at all, but Italy.  Because of our cultural and political identity behaviors and expectations, and refusal to do what was necessary, particularly the refusal to do it fast enough, and now, long enough.  We never thought about eradicating the disease, as with Ebola, for instance, but blathered on about herd immunity, which could only be achieved by infections plus vaccinations.  Which still doesn't eradicate the disease, and which means a constant round of infections and death into the future.

 

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I finally tried to register for a vaccine since Michigan appears to have expanded who can get one, but quickly ran into the same problem a lot of people have, which is lack of appointments. I only tried Walgreens and Meijer (yes, the same family whose scion voted to impeach Trump, bless his GoP heart) pharmacies so maybe I'll get lucky sometime soon.

Also, there were some irregularities in exactly when phase 1c was being implemented here so I hope things get better after March 22.

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Yeah, there are a few appointments one town over, but I honestly didnt want to drive 45 minutes either way when i felt reasonably confident things would be better next week. I was just surprised since many of my colleagues were able to sign up but it looks like I narrowly missed the window.

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2 hours ago, Zorral said:

"How the West Lost Covid

They might actually have scrapped the last word, because that's exactly where we in the West are now: we have lost, completely and in every eway. Western people are sure acting like nothing has changed, but the rest of the world has taken notice. And with rumors that pharma is pressuring DC to blame countries like Chile who rely on non-Western vaccines or are asking for public licence to manufacture them, this will only get worse.

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Maybe something will be announced soon?

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US President Joe Biden said he is in talks with several countries about extra doses of Covid-19 vaccines.

“We*re talking with several countries already,” he told reporters as he left the White House to promote his coronavirus stimulus package in Pennsylvania. “I’ll let you know that very shortly.”

 

My money is on Mexico, since they made a direct request for the AZ vaccine.

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13 minutes ago, IheartIheartTesla said:

Maybe something will be announced soon?

My money is on Mexico, since they made a direct request for the AZ vaccine.

If the AZ stockpile has been sitting around for a while, it could be nearing it's expiration date, and we won't be approving it's use in the US for probably another month, so we may as well send it to someone that can use it.  J&J vaccine is similar, already approved, and is superior in many respects to the AZ vaccine, so there isn't much pressure for a quick approval here.  The negative press recently about the hoarding may have also helped push things along.  The hoarding really makes zero sense, so it would be great if he changes his mind on it.

 

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More bad news:

"After weeks of declining cases, echoes of hot spots emerge in Upper Midwest, New York City area
As a dangerous variant spreads, experts urge continued coronavirus vigilance despite positive trends across U.S."

https://www.washingtonpost.com/health/2021/03/16/covid-cases-rising-michigan-new-york-city/

Quote

 

....After weeks of declining coronavirus deaths and hospitalizations, new hot spots of infection have emerged, and disease experts warn that the spread of a more dangerous variant and a too-rapid rush to return to normal life could prolong the historic health emergency.

Caseloads are down nationally and tens of millions of people are fully loaded with antibodies to the virus, with more than 2 million people getting doses of vaccine every day. But the virus continues to pose a real and present threat, with about 55,000 new infections daily.

Michigan has seen a rise in hospitalizations and positive test results. Minnesota’s numbers are creeping up, as are Maryland’s and New Jersey’s. Many places, including New York City and surrounding counties, are no longer seeing steady declines in cases, despite intensive vaccination efforts....

 

@IheartIheartTesla -- perhaps you could enlist some friends or family members who have appointments already to help you look for appointments.  Evidently Michigan like NYC is emerging as a hotspot for new and non-declining infections.  :(

I gave my details and information for all those damned forms to these friends so we didn't lose the time of them trying to contact me -- when I wasn't online and / or had phone closed down.  These are trusted friends who have proven their trustworthiness over and over during the years, and not only to me, or to Partner, but to their own partners, families and other friends.

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3 hours ago, Zorral said:

"How the West Lost Covid
How did so many rich countries get it so wrong? How did others get it so right?"

Very long, informative read.  Highly recommended.

https://nymag.com/intelligencer/2021/03/how-the-west-lost-covid-19.html

 

I read that article yesterday and was shocked to learn that Australia and New Zealand aren't considered part of the West apparently. Who knew?

But yes good article.

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45 minutes ago, Impmk2 said:

I read that article yesterday and was shocked to learn that Australia and New Zealand aren't considered part of the West apparently. Who knew?

But yes good article.

Well, they did a good job, so no, not a part of the West!  :cheers:

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1 hour ago, Zorral said:

@IheartIheartTesla -- perhaps you could enlist some friends or family members who have appointments already to help you look for appointments.  Evidently Michigan like NYC is emerging as a hotspot for new and non-declining infections.  :(

Thanks for the suggestion. I am not too worried since our county has been fairly good through the year, and vaccine hesitancy isnt as much a concern here as opposed to elsewhere, so as long as someone is getting vaccinated I am good with it. I was a bit busy with work but have some free time now, so I'll ramp up my efforts to get vaccinated from here onwards. March 22nd should also be a turning point where we enter a new phase and I imagine more stocks of vaccines will arrive.

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9 hours ago, Impmk2 said:

I read that article yesterday and was shocked to learn that Australia and New Zealand aren't considered part of the West apparently. Who knew?

But yes good article.

Sorry but as those in the southern hemisphere are upside down you also have to flip your compose upside down. 

N and S  are the same thus keeping North and South but you loose/rename  East and West.   W becomes M   so there is not West,  and E becomes 3

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15 hours ago, Karlbear said:

Europe, I love you and your eurocommie ways, but get your shit together

 

 

Inaccuracies or not, this is the most Europe thing one could imagine. 

I just want us to vaccinate with Sputnik at this point. 


I’m said to receive an immunity passport or what in the post as a recovered covid case...oO

I would appreciate receiving an email more, to let me know whether I can donate plasma or not. I don’t know if authorities will reach out to me, maybe I’ll call the COVID number and ask. If the same regulations apply as in the case of regular blood donation, I won’t be eligible (I don’t reach the minimum body mass requirement even though I’m doing quite well gaining back all the stress weight loss of 2020). Still, I hope at some point I can. 

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12 hours ago, Impmk2 said:

I read that article yesterday and was shocked to learn that Australia and New Zealand aren't considered part of the West apparently. Who knew?

Actually Australia and NZ are there to point out that the failings are not cultural but political. Ah, but they are islands! some would say. Well, you have Uruguay and to a lesser extend Paraguay which have done reasonably well considering the regional and internal context.

But the point of the article stands. You throw a dart to a map and you know how the country has done in the pandemic

Good article @Zorral!

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Interesting article.  I'm not sure its particularly coherent.  A lot of good ideas in it but it feels like it was written by 5 different people.  Making suggestions about the lockdowns in NZ and Australia were not drastically different than in other places?  They clearly were (even the purpose was different: eradication v reduction). The US fatality rate is 25% higher than the EU rate.  Is that similar?  Compared to NZ's rate, sure.  That's a 100k people though.

1 hour ago, RhaenysBee said:

Inaccuracies or not, this is the most Europe thing one could imagine. 

I'm not feeling very forgiving for the media at the moment.  The narrative has been decided and there is little attempt to delve into things.  I did dig a little into what the UK media was saying, just to sense check was I missing anything.  I know the Daily Telegraph is the Daily Telegraph but wow, propaganda.  The Guardian was terribly simplistic.  The BBC keeps finding these experts (mainly British) saying the amorphous beings that made this decision were clearly crazy.

There may be good journalism in there but I gave up.  Their conclusion could be right (that's the unfortunate thing).  But you have to make a proper argument first.

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20 minutes ago, Padraig said:

Interesting article.  I'm not sure its particularly coherent.  A lot of good ideas in it but it feels like it was written by 5 different people.  Making suggestions about the lockdowns in NZ and Australia were not drastically different than in other places?  They clearly were (even the purpose was different: eradication v reduction). The US fatality rate is 25% higher than the EU rate.  Is that similar?  Compared to NZ's rate, sure.  That's a 100k people though.

I'm not feeling very forgiving for the media at the moment.  The narrative has been decided and there is little attempt to delve into things.  I did dig a little into what the UK media was saying, just to sense check was I missing anything.  I know the Daily Telegraph is the Daily Telegraph but wow, propaganda.  The Guardian was terribly simplistic.  The BBC keeps finding these experts (mainly British) saying the amorphous beings that made this decision were clearly crazy.

There may be good journalism in there but I gave up.  Their conclusion could be right (that's the unfortunate thing).  But you have to make a proper argument first.

Your point on journalism is exactly the right one.  It’s true on a lot of things, and once the broad narrative has been crowdsourced it becomes “fact”, even if the narrative itself is a construct.  It’s exhausting trying to figure out it what’s going on.

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14 hours ago, Impmk2 said:

I read that article yesterday and was shocked to learn that Australia and New Zealand aren't considered part of the West apparently. Who knew?

But yes good article.

Nor are they developed apparently based on comments from people in Canada who are sure Canada's doing the worst in terms of vaccination of all the developed countries in the world.

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24 minutes ago, TrueMetis said:

Nor are they developed apparently based on comments from people in Canada who are sure Canada's doing the worst in terms of vaccination of all the developed countries in the world.

Well, to be fair, I think most people I’ve talked to aren’t worried about countries that have almost eliminated Covid-19 not getting vaccine because they’ve done so much better than Canada. 
 

Stories are popping up about Biden considering releasing vaccine, maybe he will in fact do so after May. But the expiry dates on the 30 M doses of the AZ vaccine in the warehouse are ticking away. Sending out 30 M doses with just a month left on them would be very annoying, so I hope he gets his act together pretty damn soon.

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