NFL 2021 - The Houston Texans v Deshaun Watson

[Nictarion]

Kyle Pitts and Ja’Marr Chase both had extremely impressive pro days. Pitts has the largest wingspan of any WR/TE in 20 years. I’m pretty sure he was made in a lab.

Hearing ATL is very interested in him at 4. 

[Mexal]

6 minutes ago, Nictarion said:

Kyle Pitts and Ja’Marr Chase both had extremely impressive pro days. Pitts has the largest wingspan of any WR/TE in 20 years. I’m pretty sure he was made in a lab.

Hearing ATL is very interested in him at 4. 

Can't wait to get one of them. Their talent level is insane. 

[Maithanet]

Pretty crazy that we could have all offensive players in the top 8, or even the top 10 picks.  That's never happened before, and for good reason: defense is just as important as offense toward winning the game.  The idea that the 5th best quarterback in this year's draft could be better than any defensive player strikes me as motivated reasoning, and teams picking in the 11-15 range are going to be getting some great prospects. 

[Rhom]

1 hour ago, Maithanet said:

Pretty crazy that we could have all offensive players in the top 8, or even the top 10 picks.  That's never happened before, and for good reason: defense is just as important as offense toward winning the game.  The idea that the 5th best quarterback in this year's draft could be better than any defensive player strikes me as motivated reasoning, and teams picking in the 11-15 range are going to be getting some great prospects. 

McShay’s latest mock draft doesn’t have Justin Fields going until the Patriots at 11... and it does have Lawrence/Wilson/Jones going 1,2,3.

This is why being an NFL GM has to be the most insane office position in all sports.

[Maithanet]

2 minutes ago, Rhom said:

McShay’s latest mock draft doesn’t have Justin Fields going until the Patriots at 11... and it does have Lawrence/Wilson/Jones going 1,2,3.

This is why being an NFL GM has to be the most insane office position in all sports.

It is funny how hard scouting qbs who will succeed in the pros really is (and the other positions is only marginally easier).  In basketball, a huge portion of the top 20 players all time were top 3 picks.  In the NFL, it's nothing like that.  Guys who could be considered the best at their position groups:

QB - Tom Brady, 199th overall

WR - Jerry Rice, 16th overall

OL - Larry Allen 46th overall

RB - Lots of guys, almost all top 5 picks

TE - Gronkowski 42nd overall

DE - Lawrence Taylor 2nd overall

LB - Ray Lewis - 26th overall

DB - Ronnie Lott 8th overall

 

Really the only position where scouts consistently got it right in the all-time greats is running back (and to a lesser extent, pass rushers).  Compare that to the all-timers in basketball:

PG- Magic (1st)

SG - Jordan (3rd)

SF - James (1st)

PF - Duncan (1st)

C - Chamberlain (pre-draft era, but would have been 1st)

[dbunting]

26 minutes ago, Maithanet said:

It is funny how hard scouting qbs who will succeed in the pros really is (and the other positions is only marginally easier).  In basketball, a huge portion of the top 20 players all time were top 3 picks.  In the NFL, it's nothing like that.  Guys who could be considered the best at their position groups:

QB - Tom Brady, 199th overall

WR - Jerry Rice, 16th overall

OL - Larry Allen 46th overall

RB - Lots of guys, almost all top 5 picks

TE - Gronkowski 42nd overall

DE - Lawrence Taylor 2nd overall

LB - Ray Lewis - 26th overall

DB - Ronnie Lott 8th overall

 

Really the only position where scouts consistently got it right in the all-time greats is running back (and to a lesser extent, pass rushers).  Compare that to the all-timers in basketball:

PG- Magic (1st)

SG - Jordan (3rd)

SF - James (1st)

PF - Duncan (1st)

C - Chamberlain (pre-draft era, but would have been 1st)

The quantity of player positions may play a big role in this. NBA has 5 positions to scout, NFL has 22 plus special teams. Also the varied defense/offense ran in NFL vs the mostly talent driven offenses in NBA??(I could be reaching here)

[Maithanet]

12 minutes ago, dbunting said:

The quantity of player positions may play a big role in this. NBA has 5 positions to scout, NFL has 22 plus special teams. Also the varied defense/offense ran in NFL vs the mostly talent driven offenses in NBA??(I could be reaching here)

Certain positions have greater value than others, which definitely contributes to a higher percentage of great RBs and DEs being taken in the top 5.  But positional value cannot explain all of that, or even close.  The problem is that even "can't miss" picks in the NFL often do miss (RB Trent Richardson #3 overall in 2012, OT Greg Robinson #2 overall in 2014) or turn out to be merely average starters (like Solomon Thomas, Dante Fowler, and Leonard Fornette).  But if you knew you were getting a true hall of famer, I think every team would use a top 5 pick on any position on offense or defense.  Maybe not 1 or 2, but after that the 3rd pick is a miss an awful lot, and getting all-pro players (at any position) is how a GM keeps his job. 

You're correct that in the NBA a great player (at any position) can dominate the game in a way that a great football player cannot.  They play both ways, and there's just a lot more that one player can do, whereas even a great quarterback is going to be either on the bench or handing the ball off on ~ 70% of his team's plays. 

But that still doesn't fully explain it IMO.  There are definitely guys that look awesome in college and then when they get to the NFL they just start regressing.  All Trent Richardson needed to do was be as good as he was in college, and he'd be an NFL starter.  He didn't need to get faster or stronger or anything, just be himself.  But he couldn't, he'd lost "it", whatever that is. 

[Mr. Chatywin et al.]

1 hour ago, Rhom said:

McShay’s latest mock draft doesn’t have Justin Fields going until the Patriots at 11... and it does have Lawrence/Wilson/Jones going 1,2,3.

This is why being an NFL GM has to be the most insane office position in all sports.

We'll see several more shake ups before the draft. The only lock is Lawrence going first.

45 minutes ago, dbunting said:

The quantity of player positions may play a big role in this. NBA has 5 positions to scout, NFL has 22 plus special teams. Also the varied defense/offense ran in NFL vs the mostly talent driven offenses in NBA??(I could be reaching here)

It does, but also the difference in talent among basketball prospects various so much more than football players. The difference between the first and third PG prospects could be massive. It doesn't work like in the NFL. There were ton of great WR prospects taken last year, and the sixth one (I believe) is clearly the best once we saw them play, but their pre-draft grades were fairly similar.

[Nictarion]

8 hours ago, Maithanet said:

It is funny how hard scouting qbs who will succeed in the pros really is (and the other positions is only marginally easier).  In basketball, a huge portion of the top 20 players all time were top 3 picks.  In the NFL, it's nothing like that.  Guys who could be considered the best at their position groups:

QB - Tom Brady, 199th overall

WR - Jerry Rice, 16th overall

OL - Anthony Munoz 3rd overall 

RB - Lots of guys, almost all top 5 picks

TE - Gronkowski 42nd overall

DE - Lawrence Taylor 2nd overall

LB - Ray Lewis - 26th overall

DB - Ronnie Lott 8th overall

 

Really the only position where scouts consistently got it right in the all-time greats is running back (and to a lesser extent, pass rushers).  Compare that to the all-timers in basketball:

PG- Magic (1st)

SG - Jordan (3rd)

SF - James (1st)

PF - Duncan (1st)

C - Chamberlain (pre-draft era, but would have been 1st)

FTFY

[Mr. Chatywin et al.]

1 hour ago, Nictarion said:

FTFY

You go tell that to Allen's face.

[Nictarion]

@Rhom

holy shit...

 

 

[DMC]

10 hours ago, Tywin et al. said:

There were ton of great WR prospects taken last year, and the sixth one (I believe) is clearly the best once we saw them play

You are correct - Brandon Aiyuk was the sixth WR drafted.

[Rhom]

5 hours ago, Nictarion said:

@Rhom

holy shit...

 

 

Crazy thing is, he wasn’t supposed to even be a starter last year.  The guy in front of him (Chris Oats) had some sort of bizarre medical emergency that has never been discussed and Davis stepped up.  He’s a freak of nature.

[Mr. Chatywin et al.]

5 hours ago, DMC said:

You are correct - Brandon Aiyuk was the sixth WR drafted.

Lol, JJ is pretty clearly the best WR from that draft from what we've seen so far.

[DMC]

4 minutes ago, Tywin et al. said:

Lol, JJ is pretty clearly the best WR from that draft from what we've seen so far.

Aiyuk was pretty damn good too, and mostly with pretty shitty QBs.  Remember seeing this about a month ago:

Quote

Pro Football Focus’ Top First Round Wide Receivers

San Francisco’s 25th-overall pick from the 2020 draft just landed on a list from Pro Football Focus among prestigious talent. The analytics site release the top four highest-graded first-round rookie wide receivers drafted since 2014, with Brandon Aiyuk closing out the group. During his rookie season, Aiyuk recorded 748 receiving yards on 60 receptions for five touchdowns. Adding to his total, the receiver also racked up 77 rushing yards on six attempts and two touchdowns on the ground. Check out PFF’s list below.

Odell Beckham Jr. - 90.8

Justin Jefferson - 90.4

Mike Evans - 84.6

Brandon Aiyuk - 80.1

 

[DireWolfSpirit]

So I guess the regular NFL season will now be 17 games.

On Tuesday, NFL owners officially approved the extension for the 2021 year and going forward.

[Maithanet]

Kill that golden goose!  Grind it to nothing!!

[Mr. Chatywin et al.]

34 minutes ago, DMC said:

Aiyuk was pretty damn good too, and mostly with pretty shitty QBs.  Remember seeing this about a month ago:

 

Not trying to take anything away from him, just pointing out that JJ looks like a HoF talent if he stays healthy. Funny he and OBJ had the two best ratings and they're near identical because I was saying that's who he reminded me of when he finally started to get targets in the third game.

Also, to circle back to our previous conversation, pretty much every commentator I trust has been making the same argument over the last few days. I listened to Kimes' podcast yesterday, and it was damn near word for word. The only reason Jones would go third is because KS has a type of QB he wants. Hopefully they and I are all wrong, because I want to see Fields or Lance in that offense, the latter making more sense and keeping Jimmy leads me to think they might go with the QB who needs a year to sit and learn. 

[DMC]

7 minutes ago, Tywin et al. said:

Also, to circle back to our previous conversation, pretty much every commentator I trust has been making the same argument over the last few days. I listened to Kimes' podcast yesterday, and it was damn near word for word. The only reason Jones would go third is because KS has a type of QB he wants.

I don't know why I'm supposed to give a shit about any of this.  As for keeping Jimmy, we'll see.

[briantw]

4 hours ago, DMC said:

I don't know why I'm supposed to give a shit about any of this.  As for keeping Jimmy, we'll see.

I mean, you don't give up three firsts to trade up and grab a LT or a WR.  Jimmy's days are numbered.  If they take Fields or Jones, you might as well just send Jimmy packing right away, but if they take Lance I could see keeping Jimmy for the year since Lance is a more raw prospect with less experience.