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NFL 2021 - The Houston Texans v Deshaun Watson


briantw

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14 minutes ago, dbunting said:

If he ends up being pretty good, then the picks are nothing though.

Sure, but I wouldn't expect that. 

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Maybe there are only three QB's in the draft that they value that high and that they know they will be gone by the time they are on the clock. If that's their thinking then this move makes sense. Burn a few picks and if he is good then you have your man, especially since he was so highly touted coming out and has been on a shit team up until now.

I mean sure, but I think all five guys have upside. I was only dinging Jones earlier because I thought he was the fifth QB to take, not the third. But if they took him at 8 and he was the last one left I'd totally understand the pick. There was no need to make this move now, especially at that price when the draft is only a few weeks away and again, Teddy is better and his cap hit this year is a nightmare if you cut ties. There was nothing forcing their hand to give a 2nd, 4th and 6th for what has so far been a bust. 

11 minutes ago, DMC said:

Well, obviously this year yeah, but his dead cap figure for next year's "only" $5 million.

That's still $23m invested in Darnold and the hit, and what are they going to do with Teddy? They can't keep him because they brought in Darnold I would assume to start. He makes too much to be a backup, and by acquiring Darnold before trading him they decreased his value unless their plan is to hold onto him and hopefully trade him if and when a good team's QB gets hurt.

 

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2 minutes ago, Tywin et al. said:

That's still $23m invested in Darnold and the hit, and what are they going to do with Teddy?

Well, their GM was pretty clear he's gonna try to trade him - and obviously has been already.  If they can't do that, there's always restructuring.  Seems like the Panthers have been aggressive all offseason trying to find a new QB, which makes me think they tried to get into the top four and the Niners beat their offer.  This is plan B.  Which either means they think even Jones will be gone by 8, or they didn't think Jones was worth the pick.

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10 minutes ago, DMC said:

Well, their GM was pretty clear he's gonna try to trade him - and obviously has been already.  If they can't do that, there's always restructuring.  Seems like the Panthers have been aggressive all offseason trying to find a new QB, which makes me think they tried to get into the top four and the Niners beat their offer.  This is plan B.  Which either means they think even Jones will be gone by 8, or they didn't think Jones was worth the pick.

But trading for Darnold first only reduces Teddy's value, and I can't see him restructuring his deal if he can't be traded. And I'll repeat, they traded a decent amount of draft capital for what I see as a downgrade. Let me know if you disagree. 

It probably was their plan B, but it's a stupid plan B. Frankly they would probably have been best off not making the trade, trading Teddy, and for the right price, McCarthy. This team isn't going anywhere as is and Darnold wouldn't be a smart move if they could have signed him as a FA and kept the picks.

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21 minutes ago, Tywin et al. said:

But trading for Darnold first only reduces Teddy's value, and I can't see him restructuring his deal if he can't be traded. And I'll repeat, they traded a decent amount of draft capital for what I see as a downgrade. Let me know if you disagree. 

Bridgewater definitely can still be traded, and probably will be.  Does doing this first lower his value?  I dunno, I suspect he didn't have much value in the first place, so it's just gonna be a late round pick either way.  As for what the Panthers gave up for Darnold?  Well, I don't think a 4th and a 6th are much.  The 2nd, yeah.  But my interest in it is this just further increases Garoppolo's market value, so I'm all for it!

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3 minutes ago, DMC said:

Bridgewater definitely can still be traded, and probably will be.  Does doing this first lower his value?  I dunno, I suspect he didn't have much value in the first place, so it's just gonna be a late round pick either way.  As for what the Panthers gave up for Darnold?  Well, I don't think a 4th and a 6th are much.  The 2nd, yeah.  But my interest in it is this just further increases Garoppolo's market value, so I'm all for it!

I'd certainly feel that way if I was in your shoes. I'm not that high on Jimmy as you know, but I'd much rather have him over Darnold. Since you get the second crack at the four QBs not named Lawrence, none of which appear to me to be ready to go day one, I'd play Jimmy for a few games, hope he balls while the rookie comes online and trade him for a similar kind of deal to a good team that lost their QB for the season. Absent that though I doubt you get more than a third for him. 

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2 minutes ago, Tywin et al. said:

Absent that though I doubt you get more than a third for him. 

If Sam Darnold just got a 2nd, 4th, and 6th I strongly suspect they can get a 2nd for Garoppolo.

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5 minutes ago, DMC said:

If Sam Darnold just got a 2nd, 4th, and 6th I strongly suspect they can get a 2nd for Garoppolo.

The counter-argument is that Darnold was playing for the worst coach in the NFL who basically got the worst out of everyone, whereas Jimmy G is playing for a competent coach and is still blah.  You can sell Darnold as a potential reclamation project, but Jimmy is who he is, and that's a bottom ten QB.

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7 minutes ago, DMC said:

If Sam Darnold just got a 2nd, 4th, and 6th I strongly suspect they can get a 2nd for Garoppolo.

But there was also speculation he was going to get cut outright if they traded for someone. And he's older and injury prone. I wouldn't trade a second for a meh QB with that track record, especially if I thought his successes had more to do with the system than his individual abilities. 

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3 minutes ago, briantw said:

You can sell Darnold as a potential reclamation project, but Jimmy is who he is, and that's a bottom ten QB.

Garoppolo is not a "bottom ten" QB.  He's very comfortably in the 10-20 range - ranked 12th in QBR in 2019 - when he's healthy.  Health is his problem.  Otherwise he's vastly superior to Darnold in terms of track record.

3 minutes ago, Tywin et al. said:

But there was also speculation he was going to get cut outright if they traded for someone.

I don't know why you think speculation matters.  There's no reason to cut Garoppolo and there never was.  That's why the Niners have leverage.

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17 minutes ago, DMC said:

Garoppolo is not a "bottom ten" QB.  He's very comfortably in the 10-20 range - ranked 12th in QBR in 2019 - when he's healthy.  Health is his problem.  Otherwise he's vastly superior to Darnold in terms of track record.

He's a middling QB, not a lower tier starter, but he's also hard to trust, both health wise and on the field. KS has kind of told the league that. 

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I don't know why you think speculation matters.  There's no reason to cut Garoppolo and there never was.  That's why the Niners have leverage.

That was in the case they traded for an established QB, Watson and Stafford being ideal targets. 

And I don't think the Niners have much leverage because what fanbase is excited by hearing their team traded draft picks for Jimmy G? I know I wouldn't be.

Also, the news is on in the background following the CBC and great, our first round pick from last year appears to be a disgusting piece of shit who assaulted a woman in a violent way. Cut him if it seems credible. 

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1 minute ago, Tywin et al. said:

And I don't think the Niners have much leverage because what fanbase is excited by hearing their team traded draft picks for Jimmy G? I know I wouldn't be.

They do have leverage, because they don't need to trade him due to salary concerns.  And honestly, their statement in the presser last week that Garoppolo gives them the best chance to win over a rookie - any rookie - has some validity.  Seems pretty clear they aren't going to trade him for anything less than a second, and between the Broncos, Pats, hell even the Bears, I wouldn't be surprised if they get that offer before/during the draft.  If not, oh well, you keep him a year and see what happens.

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16 minutes ago, DMC said:

They do have leverage, because they don't need to trade him due to salary concerns.  And honestly, their statement in the presser last week that Garoppolo gives them the best chance to win over a rookie - any rookie - has some validity.  Seems pretty clear they aren't going to trade him for anything less than a second, and between the Broncos, Pats, hell even the Bears, I wouldn't be surprised if they get that offer before/during the draft.  If not, oh well, you keep him a year and see what happens.

I would quibble and say they don't have leverage, but they also don't have any urgency to act. Otherwise I agree, and like I said before, more trade partners will appear as injuries occur.

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4 hours ago, briantw said:

The counter-argument is that Darnold was playing for the worst coach in the NFL who basically got the worst out of everyone, whereas Jimmy G is playing for a competent coach and is still blah.  You can sell Darnold as a potential reclamation project, but Jimmy is who he is, and that's a bottom ten QB.

The worst coach in the NFL is still employed by the Cincinnati Bengals thank you very much.

Zac Taylor 6-25–1 .203%

Adam Gase 32-48 .400%

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So I've been a little draft obsessed lately - mostly looking at the Day 2 prospects - but I just took a look at Todd McShay's recent prospect rankings.  He's got Justin Fields and Mac Jones ranked 18th and 19th, respectively.  Both have grades of 90, along with the likes of Greg Rousseau, Kadarius Toney, Jamin Davis, and two running backs (Harris and Etienne).  Some guard name Alijah Vera-Tucker is graded higher at 91.  Devonta Smith is in an entirely higher "tier" at 93.

This is absolutely asinine.  OTOH, it does explain why much of the media seems to "discern" the Niners will pick Jones.  I can't help but emphasize that if Justin Fields was white, after the ballsy-as-fuck performance against Clemson and running a 4.44 40, he would be the presumptive number two pick.  Full stop.  The media would be wondering if the Jags should pick him over Lawrence.  Instead you get horseshit like he's a "one read" quarterback from a ton of people that have no fucking clue what they're talking about.

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37 minutes ago, DMC said:

This is absolutely asinine.  OTOH, it does explain why much of the media seems to "discern" the Niners will pick Jones.  I can't help but emphasize that if Justin Fields was white, after the ballsy-as-fuck performance against Clemson and running a 4.44 40, he would be the presumptive number two pick.  Full stop.  The media would be wondering if the Jags should pick him over Lawrence.  Instead you get horseshit like he's a "one read" quarterback from a ton of people that have no fucking clue what they're talking about.

His player comp is fucking Josh Allen, except he's way more accurate. It's a joke. 

You know who is actually a "one read" quarterback? Mac Jones. "Justin Fields doesn't have enough experience." But Trey Lance might go before him.... And let's not even discuss the fact that Wilson didn't play anywhere near as hard of a schedule. 

I hope your team isn't dumb and takes him. He'd be so much fun to see in that offensive scheme. 

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Agree completely with DMC about Fields. The only QB that should go ahead of him is Lawrence.

He's gonna make the talking heads and network pencil necks look very foolish for pushing the lesser talented QB's over the guy that just may be the next Lamar Jackson level stud.

Eta: Further evidence, Fields scored off the charts on aptitude testing 

https://www.nbcsports.com/bayarea/49ers/justin-fields-did-insanely-well-aptitude-test-mark-sanchez-says

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On 4/5/2021 at 11:56 PM, DMC said:

Garoppolo is not a "bottom ten" QB.  He's very comfortably in the 10-20 range - ranked 12th in QBR in 2019 - when he's healthy.  Health is his problem.  Otherwise he's vastly superior to Darnold in terms of track record.

NFL QBs I'd rather have than Jimmy G in 2021 (note: not listed in order of quality):

Mahomes, Mayfield, Jackson, Murray, Rodgers, Watson, Tannehill, Allen, Prescott, Brady, Stafford, Wilson, Herbert, Burrow, Ryan, Cousins

Tua and Hurts are toss-ups.  It's the mystery box scenario.  They could be anything.  Garoppolo is a known meh quantity.  I'd also rather have the top five QBs in this class over Jimmy G for the same reason.

So that's basically bottom ten.  That's not saying Garoppolo is trash.  The position is just a lot deeper than it has been in recent memory and he's been bumped down accordingly. 

I may have missed a QB or two above too.  

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20 minutes ago, briantw said:

NFL QBs I'd rather have than Jimmy G in 2021 (note: not listed in order of quality):

Mahomes, Mayfield, Jackson, Murray, Rodgers, Watson, Tannehill, Allen, Prescott, Brady, Stafford, Wilson, Herbert, Burrow, Ryan, Cousins

Tua and Hurts are toss-ups.  It's the mystery box scenario.  They could be anything.  Garoppolo is a known meh quantity.  I'd also rather have the top five QBs in this class over Jimmy G for the same reason.

So that's basically bottom ten.

...I don't accept your premise.  I'd take Garoppolo over Tua and Hurts - at least right now/for next year.  He's also on par with Cousins, assuming health.  And I don't think you can count the rookies before they're even drafted.  That's..the opposite of evaluating things.  The only one that will for sure (or almost sure) be better than healthy Garoppolo is Lawrence.  Wilson, Fields, Lance, Jones all have floors lower than Healthy Garoppolo. 

Therefore, he's about 15 or 16 right now.  I guess you could add Carr or Fitzpatrick to your list, but I'd say Healthy Garoppolo is on par with both as well.

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37 minutes ago, DMC said:

...I don't accept your premise.  I'd take Garoppolo over Tua and Hurts - at least right now/for next year.  He's also on par with Cousins, assuming health.  And I don't think you can count the rookies before they're even drafted.  That's..the opposite of evaluating things.  The only one that will for sure (or almost sure) be better than healthy Garoppolo is Lawrence.  Wilson, Fields, Lance, Jones all have floors lower than Healthy Garoppolo. 

Therefore, he's about 15 or 16 right now.  I guess you could add Carr or Fitzpatrick to your list, but I'd say Healthy Garoppolo is on par with both as well.

So borderline bottom ten then?  I can live with that.

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