NFL 2021 - The Houston Texans v Deshaun Watson

[Rhom]

Ouch... poor Handsome Jimmy

 

[dbunting]

So for Dallas I will do this exercise 

Pick 10 - Who will they take - Surtain/Horn whichever they rank higher

               Who should they take, same as above, I'd prefer Surtain, seems cleaner, gets less penalties for PI which as we all know is even stricter in the NFL.

               Miracle pick, Sewell slides to them or PItts since Jerry J seems to have a mancrush on him

Trade back scenario, only one I see is NE at 15 (get a 2nd or 3rd for it?)- pick Horn/Surtain if available or Parsons since he is the guy who seems to be sliding down boards.

Stranger 2nd trade back with Baltimore (if they want a tackle or Parsons) and get their two first round picks 28 and 31 I think and maybe a 4th rd pick. Then Dallas picks the best CB available does Farley slide this far?) and maybe the TCU safety if he slides a little or the Alabama DT Barrimore(?)...  Get 2 def starters and still have two more extra picks.

None of this will happen and they will move up to 4-6 and take Pitts because Jerry is crazy.

[DMC]

1 hour ago, Rhom said:

Ouch... poor Handsome Jimmy

Yeah that was the other notable thing from Peter King's article:

Quote

It won’t surprise me if the Niners make Jimmy Garoppolo more available than he’s been. In other words, instead of trying to get a first-round pick for him, maybe considering taking a two for him. I wonder if the Patriots would deal the 46th pick in the draft, or their second-rounder in 2022, for their old friend.

 

[Rhom]

2 minutes ago, DMC said:

Yeah that was the other notable thing from Peter King's article:

 

This was funny

 

[Rhom]

FWIW

 

[mcbigski]

Can't wait for the silly season to be over.

[DMC]

2 hours ago, mcbigski said:

Can't wait for the silly season to be over.

Tell me about it.  Just the reports the past 48 hours on the Niners pick, I've seen reports ranging from "it's been Jones all along" to "they've narrowed it down to Jones or Lance" to "they haven't decided as recently as three days ago" to "they like all three quarterbacks."  NFL.com has posted four mock drafts from "insiders" over the past two days, two have the Niners picking Jones, two Lance.  Fields seems to have dropped out of contention, ignoring the fact that immediately after his pro day - all of two weeks ago - he seemed to be the favorite among "insiders" (and was the betting favorite). 

Even one of the mock draft simulators I use - PFF's - has had the Niners keeping their third round pick (102nd) up until yesterday.  Today, for some reason, now the Dolphins have that pick.  Now, when the trade first happened there was some confusion whether the 3rd rounder they were giving up was this year's or next year's.  It seemed to be confirmed by all sources it was next year's (more precisely the comp pick they'll get next year for the Jets hiring Saleh).  Can't find any reason why PFF changed it this late.

I haven't followed this much pre-draft coverage in a very long time.  The only sure takeaway I've got is that none of these people know fuck all what's actually going on and are entirely talking out of their ass.  Only thing I'm reasonably confident in is that Garoppolo will be traded by Sunday.  If he's still alive, that is.

[Mr. Chatywin et al.]

Yeah, if I was a Niners fan I'd be frustrated as all hell right now. I'd be trying to tell myself that they're only doing this on the off chance the Jets take Fields, but otherwise there's no reason at this point for them to not say they're taking either Wilson or X based on what the Jets do. Ultimately I think they'll do the right thing and take Lance, but selfishly I want them to take Jones because every mock seems to have one QB falling to 15 for the Pats and I'd absolutely want the Vikes to take Field or Lance at 14 if one of them falls.

[briantw]

I just can't believe the Niners traded two future firsts to move up without knowing who they planned to draft.  The idea that they're still debating the day of the draft is laughable.  

[DMC]

22 minutes ago, briantw said:

I just can't believe the Niners traded two future firsts to move up without knowing who they planned to draft.  The idea that they're still debating the day of the draft is laughable.  

It reminds me of back in the day when I was ensconced in the IWC.  Dave Meltzer is the poster boy but it was really all of them.  Building a narrative, shifting it as necessary, and including enough qualifiers along the way to cover your own ass in case it becomes clear you have no idea what the fuck is going on.  The most amusing thing is reading all the mock drafts that exacerbate it.  Can't even count how many I've read having the Niners picking Jones where the explanation is "I wouldn't do it but that seems to be the consensus."  A consensus built on nothing.  It'd make Irving Janis proud.  Or roll over in his grave.  One or the other.

Also, McShay's final mock has them picking Lance.

[Maithanet]

It is really hard for me to believe that the Niners traded all that for Jones.  Everything about him screams "system guy" who looks great when things are going well and rarely had to deal with real adversity.  I'm not saying they could have gotten him at 12, but they definitely could have got him at 6, and probably at 8, and that's a huge difference in price. 

The only way that trading to 3 makes sense is if you think that there is a big dropoff in talent after the first 3 qbs.  If the Niners are actually telling the truth (they're not) that they really like both Lance and Jones, then they made a very foolish trade.  The Falcons are definitely willing to trade down at 4, and even the price difference between 3 and 4 is substantial (probably something more like the 12th pick, a 3rd rounder and next year's 1st to get the Falcons pick). 

[Mr. Chatywin et al.]

27 minutes ago, Maithanet said:

It is really hard for me to believe that the Niners traded all that for Jones.  Everything about him screams "system guy" who looks great when things are going well and rarely had to deal with real adversity.  I'm not saying they could have gotten him at 12, but they definitely could have got him at 6, and probably at 8, and that's a huge difference in price. 

That’s the main reason why people are speculating Jones at 3. They think he’s a system guy and that’s what KS wants.

Quote

The only way that trading to 3 makes sense is if you think that there is a big dropoff in talent after the first 3 qbs.  If the Niners are actually telling the truth (they're not) that they really like both Lance and Jones, then they made a very foolish trade.  The Falcons are definitely willing to trade down at 4, and even the price difference between 3 and 4 is substantial (probably something more like the 12th pick, a 3rd rounder and next year's 1st to get the Falcons pick). 

They have to be acting this way because they hope Wilson doesn’t go second. Otherwise they’ve committed football malpractice trading up to three without knowing who they wanted.  

[DMC]

1 hour ago, Tywin et al. said:

They have to be acting this way because they hope Wilson doesn’t go second.

I don't know about that.  Somebody smart and famous once said all warfare is based on deception.

[Maithanet]

I think it's still very possible that the Niners are going to take Fields and all this deception is just to throw the Jets off the trail, for fear they have second thoughts about Wilson vs Fields.  I think that a lot of this smoke and mirrors is just deception for deception's sake, and has no purpose.  Anyone who works for the Niners can get a couple of dozen NFL reporters on the phone hanging off their every word, and I'm sure they like having their ego stroked. 

[DMC]

There's a lot of angles you can speculate on why they don't want to advertise their choice.  Bottomline, though, is there's really nothing to gain from them advertising their pick.

[Mr. Chatywin et al.]

23 minutes ago, DMC said:

I don't know about that.  Somebody smart and famous once said all warfare is based on deception.

Sure, but in this situation if you assume it’s gospel that the first two picks are Lawrence and Wilson there’s no reason to be deceptive if you know who you want unless you’re trying to marginally diminish the value of the Falcons’ pick. Is that worth annoying your fan base? I guess Maith could be right and they’re doing this because they might be playing mind games with the Jets, but that seems rather unlikely given the Jets seem pretty locked in on Wilson.

[DMC]

1 minute ago, Tywin et al. said:

Sure, but in this situation if you assume it’s gospel that the first two picks are Lawrence and Wilson there’s no reason to be deceptive if you know who you want unless you’re trying to marginally diminish the value of the Falcons’ pick. Is that worth annoying your fan base?

There's plenty of potential reasons.  And I don't think either Lynch nor Shanahan care about annoying their fan base, nor should they.  I say this as an annoyed fan.

[Mr. Chatywin et al.]

40 minutes ago, DMC said:

There's plenty of potential reasons.  And I don't think either Lynch nor Shanahan care about annoying their fan base, nor should they.  I say this as an annoyed fan.

If you say so. I just think a lot of Niners fans are where you are, i.e. cool with either Lance or Fields, but really don’t want Jones. If they favor Jones of the three they should probably just let people know considering the draft seems to start with their pick.

[Rhom]

49 minutes ago, Tywin et al. said:

If you say so. I just think a lot of Niners fans are where you are, i.e. cool with either Lance or Fields, but really don’t want Jones. If they favor Jones of the three they should probably just let people know considering the draft seems to start with their pick.

I’m cool with Jones... if we had stayed at 12.  Not cool with trading up to do it.

[DMC]

1 hour ago, Tywin et al. said:

I just think a lot of Niners fans are where you are, i.e. cool with either Lance or Fields, but really don’t want Jones. If they favor Jones of the three they should probably just let people know considering the draft seems to start with their pick.

I think this is irrelevant to tipping your hand on who you're gonna pick.  Who cares what the fans think?  I'd be more concerned with what the Panthers, Broncos, Pats, etc. think.  There's no reason to give any of them the advantage of knowing what you think.