Would Robert have gone to war against Tywin?

[Canon Claude]

Assuming that Robert somehow survived the boar hunt, and comes home to find out that the Westerlands armies have been devastating the Riverlands and have wiped out an army which included one of his prime bannermen from the Dornish Marches, would that have been enough to make Robert rally the other kingdoms to put Tywin in his place? Or would he have continued to sit on his ass while the Lannisters and Starks tear the kingdom apart?

[CamiloRP]

He would have ordered Tywin to stop, and Tywin would've stopped.

[frenin]

31 minutes ago, CamiloRP said:

He would have ordered Tywin to stop, and Tywin would've stopped.

The likelier answer. 

Since Gregor was already sentenced to death, he would've been a goner tbh.

[The Young Maester]

If we forget about the incest, and just presume it never happened. Robert would just demand an end to the war and wash his hands off it. Tywin most likely had a bullshit excuse to slightly justify his invasion.

However we need to remember that Ned would be whispering in Robert’s ear. Ned would certainly demand a heavy punishment for tywins invasion, and maybe even naming him an outright traitor. However Robert is too lazy to deal with such a messy situation. So it’s likely that Ned and Robert would come to some sort of middle arrangement to end the war with just a slap on the wrist for Tywin (reparations to river lords).

If we take the incest as a factor, we remember that Ned was planning on telling Robert about the cuckolding. We can safely presume that Robert was gonna slap Cersei to death, and afterwards March an army to the riverlands for Jamies head. Tywin would be caught in the middle of all this, exposed and far away from his defendable homeland.

[frenin]

1 minute ago, The Young Maester said:

Tywin most likely had a bullshit excuse to slightly justify his invasion.

He didn't. Ned had destroyed it for him. It didn't matter anyway, as Tywin only invade once Joffy was on the throne, ie once he didn't need an excuse to be a cunt, bullshit or otherwise.

[The Young Maester]

5 minutes ago, frenin said:

He didn't. Ned had destroyed it for him. It didn't matter anyway, as Tywin only invade once Joffy was on the throne, ie once he didn't need an excuse to be a cunt, bullshit or otherwise.

The timeline is a bit messed up however. It is very likely that Tywin invaded when he got word of Roberts death. But we have no way of knowing whether he knew that Robert was dead when he attacked berics man. Also Tywin was assembling men before the mummers Ford so we can safely assume he planned on invading regardless.

[Arthur Peres]

If Robert ever return then Tywin is dead.

Robert would kill Cersei and demand Jaimes head, and the golden boy is the only thing Tywin is not willing to throw away.

[Lord Varys]

28 minutes ago, Arthur Peres said:

If Robert ever return then Tywin is dead.

Robert would kill Cersei and demand Jaimes head, and the golden boy is the only thing Tywin is not willing to throw away.

Jaime would no longer have been with Cersei when Robert returned, so he would be save in the West.

In light of Renly's plans to replace Cersei with Margaery Robert would have had a very fine anti-Lannister coalition at his hands, meaning the situation for Tywin would have been dire.

[FictionIsntReal]

30 minutes ago, Lord Varys said:

Jaime would no longer have been with Cersei when Robert returned, so he would be save in the West.

In light of Renly's plans to replace Cersei with Margaery Robert would have had a very fine anti-Lannister coalition at his hands, meaning the situation for Tywin would have been dire.

Margaery still hadn't even come to King's Landing, but I don't doubt Mace Tyrell would be happy to kick Tywin and join the winner's table.

[frenin]

1 hour ago, The Young Maester said:

The timeline is a bit messed up however

Seems clear enough to me. In fact, Tywin points it out by mentioning to Yyrion that Robert is dead and Joffrey sits on the throne when explaining his plans to carry on the war.

 

1 hour ago, The Young Maester said:

Also Tywin was assembling men before the mummers Ford so we can safely assume he planned on invading regardless.

We can safely assume that he didn't intended to do it regardless, he simply wanted having an aliby to do so...

 

Quote

“If your fields and holdfasts are safe from harm,” Lord Petyr was saying, “what then do you ask of the throne?” “The lords of the Trident keep the king’s peace,” Ser Raymun Darry said. “The Lannisters have broken it. We ask leave to answer them, steel for steel. We ask justice for the smallfolk of Sherrer and Wendish Town and the Mummer’s Ford.” “Edmure agrees, we must pay Gregor Clegane back his bloody coin,” Ser Marq declared, “but old Lord Hoster commanded us to come here and beg the king’s leave before we strike.” Thank the gods for old Lord Hoster, then. Tywin Lannister was as much fox as lion. If indeed he’d sent Ser Gregor to burn and pillage—and Ned did not doubt that he had—he’d taken care to see that he rode under cover of night, without banners, in the guise of a common brigand. Should Riverrun strike back, Cersei and her father would insist that it had been the Tullys who broke the king’s peace, not the Lannisters. The gods only knew what Robert would believe.

 book Tywin is certainly not show Tywin. Not even Tywin is stupid enough to openly commit treason without knowing 100% he has his back covered.

 

 

[CamiloRP]

56 minutes ago, Lord Varys said:

Jaime would no longer have been with Cersei when Robert returned, so he would be save in the West.

In light of Renly's plans to replace Cersei with Margaery Robert would have had a very fine anti-Lannister coalition at his hands, meaning the situation for Tywin would have been dire.

Absolutely, even without the a Margeary/Robert marriage the Tyrells would likely be in Robert's side thanks to Renly, so that would put the Crown, the Sotrmlands, the Riverlands, the Reach and the North against Tywin, he would assume he can't count on the Vale, nor he can count on Dorne, as they hate him, and the Iron Islands would either stay neutral or fight for the Crown after Ned sends them a letter (maybe, Balons feelings on Theon are unclear for me, he didn't care for him and he wanted Asha as heir (a thing that would've been much easier if Theon was dead) but still waited to attack until after Theon was returned to him. Maybe he wanted to see what kind of man Theon had become, or maybe it was a coincidence).

Anyhow, Tywin would be screwed.

[Lord Varys]

22 minutes ago, FictionIsntReal said:

Margaery still hadn't even come to King's Landing, but I don't doubt Mace Tyrell would be happy to kick Tywin and join the winner's table.

The idea is that Renly, being with Robert after his return from his hunt, would immediately suggest Margaery as Cersei's successor in the wake of her arrest/death. And Robert and Ned, knowing that allies would be great in the war against the Lannisters, would have no objection to this.

Especially if Robert decided to do away with the Lannisters for good - in the sense of attainting the entire house and handing over Casterly Rock and Lannisport to other houses. Cracking open Casterly Rock would be very difficult business even after the Baratheons had defeated the Westermen in the field.

[CamiloRP]

31 minutes ago, Lord Varys said:

The idea is that Renly, being with Robert after his return from his hunt, would immediately suggest Margaery as Cersei's successor in the wake of her arrest/death. And Robert and Ned, knowing that allies would be great in the war against the Lannisters, would have no objection to this.

Especially if Robert decided to do away with the Lannisters for good - in the sense of attainting the entire house and handing over Casterly Rock and Lannisport to other houses. Cracking open Casterly Rock would be very difficult business even after the Baratheons had defeated the Westermen in the field.

After what happened with Cersei, I don't think Robert would be that quick to remarry, tho again, he wouldn't need to to get Tyrell support, and even if he didn't, he would kick Tywin's ass anyway.

[Lord Varys]

3 minutes ago, CamiloRP said:

After what happened with Cersei, I don't think Robert would be that quick to remarry, tho again, he wouldn't need to to get Tyrell support, and even if he didn't, he would kick Tywin's ass anyway.

Eventually he would have to. If he did not, the next generation of legitimate Baratheons would just be Shireen - and nobody would want her to succeed Robert. Stannis was stuck in the marriage with Selyse, and Renly was not likely to marry unless they forced him ... and even then the chances that he would father children are not that high.

If we assume Robert could live another 30-40 years then both Stannis and Renly would be too old for him to be heirs, and even if one of them could succeed Robert and rule for 5-10 years before they died in turn, they just need to have to produce another generation of Baratheons.

Not to mention that the Realm would be in need of a queen, and court and lords would throw women at Robert until he finally picked one. And considering his appetites he would eventually pick one.

[CamiloRP]

8 minutes ago, Lord Varys said:

Eventually he would have to. If he did not, the next generation of legitimate Baratheons would just be Shireen - and nobody would want her to succeed Robert. Stannis was stuck in the marriage with Selyse, and Renly was not likely to marry unless they forced him ... and even then the chances that he would father children are not that high.

If we assume Robert could live another 30-40 years then both Stannis and Renly would be too old for him to be heirs, and even if one of them could succeed Robert and rule for 5-10 years before they died in turn, they just need to have to produce another generation of Baratheons.

Not to mention that the Realm would be in need of a queen, and court and lords would throw women at Robert until he finally picked one. And considering his appetites he would eventually pick one.

Yes, eventually, but not fast enough for it to be a threat agains Tywin after Cersei and her children are executed. 

[Lord Varys]

17 minutes ago, CamiloRP said:

Yes, eventually, but not fast enough for it to be a threat agains Tywin after Cersei and her children are executed. 

With the Tyrells they could be brought onboard via Renly/Loras, and then they could agree that later, after the war is won and all, Robert would eventually marry Margaery. She was just barely fifteen, perhaps still fourteen, at the time.

There would have been no need to rush things.

[CamiloRP]

19 minutes ago, Lord Varys said:

With the Tyrells they could be brought onboard via Renly/Loras, and then they could agree that later, after the war is won and all, Robert would eventually marry Margaery. She was just barely fifteen, perhaps still fourteen, at the time.

There would have been no need to rush things.

Yes, it's what I said. I think I just misunderstood you again.

 

[Nathan Stark]

The whole point of Ned sending Beric out with 100 men under the royal banner was to get Tywin to attack Kings Men. That part of Ned's plan worked as Tywin promptly set upon them after Ned very publically denounced Tywin. So if Robert comes back, and finds out that Tywin sent Gregor Clegane out to ravish the Riverlands, that's one thing. But if Robert comes back and finds out that Tywin and Gregor did all that and then attacked Kings Men, it's a whole different ballgame. One thing Big Bob cannot stand is having his masculinity pricked, and Tywin attacking Kings Men on Kings business is very much that. Look at Balon Greyjoy to find out how Robert deals with lords who f*ck with his kingdom.

[The Young Maester]

7 hours ago, frenin said:

Seems clear enough to me

No need to be rude. If you could grab me a quote where it solves the mess for me, that It would be great, however if you can’t than the point still stands. We don’t know when exactly Tywin sent Gregor, or when Ned received the river lords, or when the mummers Ford happened. None of it can be pin pointed with Robert death.

7 hours ago, frenin said:

In fact, Tywin points it out by mentioning to Yyrion that Robert is dead and Joffrey sits on the throne when explaining his plans to carry on the war.

I already said that Tywin likely invaded after getting word of roberts death.

7 hours ago, frenin said:

We can safely assume that he didn't intended to do it regardless, he simply wanted having an aliby to do so...

Hence why I said Tywin had a some excuse to justify his invasion. You are pointing out the things I already said. Tywin wouldve invaded even with Robert alive. 

7 hours ago, frenin said:

Quote

“If your fields and holdfasts are safe from harm,” Lord Petyr was saying, “what then do you ask of the throne?” “The lords of the Trident keep the king’s peace,” Ser Raymun Darry said. “The Lannisters have broken it. We ask leave to answer them, steel for steel. We ask justice for the smallfolk of Sherrer and Wendish Town and the Mummer’s Ford.” “Edmure agrees, we must pay Gregor Clegane back his bloody coin,” Ser Marq declared, “but old Lord Hoster commanded us to come here and beg the king’s leave before we strike.” Thank the gods for old Lord Hoster, then. Tywin Lannister was as much fox as lion. If indeed he’d sent Ser Gregor to burn and pillage—and Ned did not doubt that he had—he’d taken care to see that he rode under cover of night, without banners, in the guise of a common brigand. Should Riverrun strike back, Cersei and her father would insist that it had been the Tullys who broke the king’s peace, not the Lannisters. The gods only knew what Robert would believe.

 book Tywin is certainly not show Tywin. Not even Tywin is stupid enough to openly commit treason without knowing 100% he has his back covered.

This whole quote just backs my point about Tywin having an excuse. 

9 hours ago, frenin said:

He didn't. Ned had destroyed it for him. It didn't matter anyway, as Tywin only invade once Joffy was on the throne, ie once he didn't need an excuse to be a cunt, bullshit or otherwise.

But this confuses me because it seems you changed your stance. Tywin didn’t need an excuse but now you are saying he had an excuse?

Its just arguing for the sake of arguing.

[frenin]

23 hours ago, The Young Maester said:

No need to be rude. If you could grab me a quote where it solves the mess for me, that It would be great, however if you can’t than the point still stands. We don’t know when exactly Tywin sent Gregor, or when Ned received the river lords, or when the mummers Ford happened. None of it can be pin pointed with Robert death.

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/u/0/d/1ZsY3lcDDtTdBWp1Gx6mfkdtZT6-Gk0kdTGeSC_Dj7WM/htmlview#gid=8

This is a quite accurate timeline of the events.

Besides we can use logic. Tywin sent Gregor on the week Ned's in a coma or soon before because the news only reach King's Landing soon after Robert goes hunting.

By the time Ned received the Riverlords there's no war, both the Westerlands and Riverlands are gathering their strenght.

After Ned's judgment, Tywin only send a furious raven but doesn't do much... And soon enough both and Robert and Ned die, Gregor ambushes Beric and there's war in the Riverlands.

 

23 hours ago, The Young Maester said:

Hence why I said Tywin had a some excuse to justify his invasion. You are pointing out the things I already said. Tywin wouldve invaded even with Robert alive. 

He didn't have said excuse!!!

Tywin couldn't invade the Riverlands without the Riverlands attacking him. Ned and Hoster prevented the Riverlands from retaliate, had Tywin attacked while Robert lived. He would've become a traitor right away.

 

 

23 hours ago, The Young Maester said:

This whole quote just backs my point about Tywin having an excuse. 

He doesn't have said excuse... Haven't you read the quote?? Tywin wanted a excuse.  He didn't get it.

Hoster forced the Riverlords to ask for the Throne's leave to invade Tywin, Ned refuses and instead simply sentences Gregor to die.

None of the above give Tywin and alibi or an excuse to do anything.

 

 

23 hours ago, The Young Maester said:

But this confuses me because it seems you changed your stance. Tywin didn’t need an excuse but now you are saying he had an excuse?

Its just arguing for the sake of arguing.

I don't know how you can be confused with something so straight forward.

 

1) Robert and Ned rule the Realm, Tywin can't just start a war because he feels like It. He needs an excuse to go to war and he tries to goad the Riverlords into breaking the King's Peace. 

 

2) Joffrey and Cersei rule the Realm, Tywin no longer needs an excuse to attack the Riverlands, he knows that whatever he might do, King's Landing has his back and it's not going to retaliate.

 

I mean this is not difficult. Tyrion questions how is it possible Robert allows Tywin and Cersei to start a war and throw Ned in a dungeon, Tywin answers that he's dead and Joffrey is on the Throne. Tywin doesn't have to worry about that anymore.