Robert's successor if Ned told him about the incest?

[Lord Varys]

I've been thinking about that question recently, and noticed something remarkably in Robert's deathbed dialogue.

Even before his death, Robert is resentful of the fact that he had become king - he goes on record saying that Ned or Jon would have been better suited for the job. He clearly isn't completely honest there, but he knows and understands that he sucks as king, doesn't have the temperament or patience for the business and government and is prone to follow his impulses rather than think something through. That's probably a realization he had as he grew fat and lazy - back during the Rebellion he most likely did want to be king, or else he could have refused to become a pretender to the throne.

But on his deathbed Robert finally does what he thinks are the right choices - he calls off the assassination of the Targaryens and he names Ned Lord Regent and Protector of the Realm.

Robert's phrasing when doing that is rather curious:

Quote

Robert managed a weak red smile. "At the least, they will say … this last thing … this I did right. You won't fail me. You'll rule now. You'll hate it, worse than I did … but you'll do well. Are you done with the scribbling?"

The reason why Robert chooses Ned as regent for his minor son is that he, rightfully, thinks Ned is very well suited for the job of ruling. In a very real sense he hands over the kingdom to Ned, not Joffrey.

And that is significant. He wants Ned to rule, because he views Ned as the (only) man with the right qualities to do so.

If we imagine for a moment that Ned did tell Robert about the twincest then Robert would have to make new arrangements. He wanted to hand over the government to Ned, but, as Ned himself muses, Stannis doesn't need a regent, he would rule in his own right.

I'm not very positive that Robert ever deluded himself into believing Stannis would be a great king. The man wanted to make things right on his deathbed, not wrong. Stannis on the throne would mean war, not just with the Lannisters (which would be necessary, after the revelation of the twincest, most likely) but also the Dothraki and the Targaryens because he, like Robert, wouldn't sit idly by while Daenerys gave birth to little dragons. Not to mention Stannis general personality.

And of Renly Robert is also very dismissive when he dictates his last will:

Quote

"Gods have mercy," he muttered, swallowing his agony. "The girl. Daenerys. Only a child, you were right … that's why, the girl … the gods sent the boar … sent to punish me …" The king coughed, bringing up blood. "Wrong, it was wrong, I … only a girl … Varys, Littlefinger, even my brother … worthless … no one to tell me no but you, Ned … only you …" He lifted his hand, the gesture pained and feeble. "Paper and ink. There, on the table. Write what I tell you."

This indicates he would also not be very keen to pass over Stannis and install Renly as his successor, either, because Renly, too, would rule in his own right and Ned couldn't serve as his regent.

My idea is that Robert's first idea when considering his succession in light of the new knowledge - after he got over the wrath and shame and anger that would have come with the revelation of the twincest - would be to hand the Iron Throne to Ned.

In light of the revelation Ned would look even more like the only and best friend, most loyal servant, true brother, etc. Robert ever had - and he earlier did reveal that succession laws and dynastic concerns didn't really matter much to him when complaining about the fact that he had to be king.

Thus I think it actually could make sense to assume that rather than turning to either Stannis or Renly Robert would want to make Ned king in his stead.

Ned would most definitely not want that nor agree to that, so they would have to something else - and there, I think, Robert would then agree to legitimize Edric Storm on his deathbed and name his his successor with Ned serving as Lord Regent and Protector of the Realm to Edric as Robert originally had wanted Ned to serve Joffrey. If Ned were to reject this idea out of hand, Robert would then likely go with either Stannis or Renly, but I'm pretty sure his gut feeling (pun intended) would be that Ned take the reins of the government.

Also, if we assume that Ned tells Robert - and Robert remains in 'deathbed amends mode' - then both would want that the children not be harmed even if neither can succeed to the throne. And that's not something they could guarantee if Stannis or Renly were taking the throne to rule in their own right. Both would most likely gladly murder Cersei's children to ensure they could never be used as pawns to depose them. But Ned would protect Cersei's children, and Robert would know that.

Is that a scenario that would make sense to you guys? Or do you think Robert would definitely want Stannis or Renly to succeed him?

[FictionIsntReal]

9 minutes ago, Lord Varys said:

I'm not very positive that Robert ever deluded himself into believing Stannis would be a great king. The man wanted to make things right on his deathbed, not wrong. Stannis on the throne would mean war, not just with the Lannisters (which would be necessary, after the revelation of the twincest, most likely) but also the Dothraki and the Targaryens because he, like Robert, wouldn't sit idly by while Daenerys gave birth to little dragons.

I'm a bit confused. Robert is worried that Stannis would act like Robert?

[CamiloRP]

I think think yes, the Edric Storm thing would be likely, either that or making Stannis swear he would keep Ned as hand once he becomes King and until he dies.

[Lord Varys]

24 minutes ago, FictionIsntReal said:

I'm a bit confused. Robert is worried that Stannis would act like Robert?

Like Robert did act before he was making amends on his deathbed. Stannnis would agree with Robert's original decision to murder the Targaryens in exile and would command something similar to happen after he is briefed on the Dothraki situation.

The same with Cersei's children - which I also don't think Robert would want to harm on his deathbed or see harmed/murdered by his successor. I could be wrong there, but the way Robert behaves on his deathbed shows he wasn't as rotten a guy as Ned feared earlier.

I don't think he would have harmed the children had Ned told him about the twincest while he was not on his deathbed.

13 minutes ago, CamiloRP said:

I think think yes, the Edric Storm thing would be likely, either that or making Stannis swear he would keep Ned as hand once he becomes King and until he dies.

That is something they couldn't really do since Stannis was on Dragonstone and they could not establish communication with Stannis before Robert's death.

Also, the Hand isn't the king - even if Stannis had agreed to something like that (and he would have never agreed to that!), the king still commands and the Hand follows. If they are at odds, the Hand has always to give in, he cannot force the king to do what he wants. What I think Robert understood on his deathbed is that Ned would indeed make a great ruler of the Seven Kingdoms - and that's what he wanted him to be when he handed the government to him.

If we think about a pact-like scenario of the sort you suggest then it would likely involve Renly as Robert's successor - he was in the Red Keep, and Ned could quickly call him back into the royal bedchamber if Robert truly wanted to offer the throne to him under certain conditions.

Renly would be more willing to compromise and accept certain caveats in exchanging for being handed the throne - as his willingness to compromise with Robb later shows.

[CamiloRP]

25 minutes ago, Lord Varys said:

Like Robert did act before he was making amends on his deathbed. Stannnis would agree with Robert's original decision to murder the Targaryens in exile and would command something similar to happen after he is briefed on the Dothraki situation.

The same with Cersei's children - which I also don't think Robert would want to harm on his deathbed or see harmed/murdered by his successor. I could be wrong there, but the way Robert behaves on his deathbed shows he wasn't as rotten a guy as Ned feared earlier.

I don't think he would have harmed the children had Ned told him about the twincest while he was not on his deathbed.

That is something they couldn't really do since Stannis was on Dragonstone and they could not establish communication with Stannis before Robert's death.

Also, the Hand isn't the king - even if Stannis had agreed to something like that (and he would have never agreed to that!), the king still commands and the Hand follows. If they are at odds, the Hand has always to give in, he cannot force the king to do what he wants. What I think Robert understood on his deathbed is that Ned would indeed make a great ruler of the Seven Kingdoms - and that's what he wanted him to be when he handed the government to him.

If we think about a pact-like scenario of the sort you suggest then it would likely involve Renly as Robert's successor - he was in the Red Keep, and Ned could quickly call him back into the royal bedchamber if Robert truly wanted to offer the throne to him under certain conditions.

Renly would be more willing to compromise and accept certain caveats in exchanging for being handed the throne - as his willingness to compromise with Robb later shows.

Oh I didn't get Robert was still dying, I got he was running of to be a sellsword. 

I don't think Robert would jump Renly over Stannis, or else he would've jumped Tommen over Joff.

[Lord Varys]

4 minutes ago, CamiloRP said:

Oh I didn't get Robert was still dying, I got he was running of to be a sellsword. 

I don't think Robert would jump Renly over Stannis, or else he would've jumped Tommen over Joff.

I don't think he would be keen on doing that, but in a scenario where he would want Ned to run/be an important part of the government this would only work with Renly or Edric as king - not Stannis - because Stannis was on Dragonstone when Robert died, and Renly was not. And Edric would do as Ned instructed him, of course.

[Ivan Tsarevich]

6 hours ago, Lord Varys said:

Ned would most definitely not want that nor agree to that, so they would have to something else - and there, I think, Robert would then agree to legitimize Edric Storm on his deathbed and name his his successor with Ned serving as Lord Regent and Protector of the Realm to Edric as Robert originally had wanted Ned to serve Joffrey. If Ned were to reject this idea out of hand, Robert would then likely go with either Stannis or Renly, but I'm pretty sure his gut feeling (pun intended) would be that Ned take the reins of the government.

I imagine that while Ned may mouth off to Robert occasionally and does oppose him when he's got a good enough reason to, he wouldn't deny him in this (serving as regent to Edric). First off, Robert is the king and Ned knows it. He opposes him to protect the children and might very well reject the throne for himself (doesn't want it, has no claim whatsoever, thinks it belongs to Stannis or whoever is the next in line), but to refuse to serve as regent for Edric... well, why exactly? For his own comfort? For the sake of tradition, even when there are precedents of kings legitimizing their bastards and the Blackfyres subsequently claimed the throne? Some other reason?

I don't think Ned is so willing to refuse direct order and/or explicit wish from his recognized sovereign and friend, when that order/wish is completely within the boundaries of Robert's power and doesn't conflict with Ned's own deeply held values and beliefs. He doesn't reject the Handship immediately when Robert comes to Winterfell, but asks to think it over. In this far more grave situation, (both for the realm at large and his friend personally,) he might actually regard it as a duty. It's one thing to refuse to take care of your friend's business when he's fine and another when he's dying.

Also, such a situation would give him an opportunity to handle the legacy of the first Baratheon king, his friend, in a way he sees fit and take care of Robert's children... not only Edric, but also Gendry, Mya, Barra, and the rest he could find.

6 hours ago, Lord Varys said:

Is that a scenario that would make sense to you guys? Or do you think Robert would definitely want Stannis or Renly to succeed him?

Makes sense to me as long as we assume that the 'deathbed amends mode' holds. For the latter question, nope. They might not think of legitimizing Edric though, and Stannis as a proven commander and notoriously merciless man might be a choice to realise Robert's revenge if his wrath wins out.

[The Young Maester]

It’s likely that Robert in his deathbed was more the Robert from the rebellion. It explains how Ned and Robert were friends in the first place.

Made me realise that it is probable that roberts whole reign flashed through his eyes, and it made him regret the fat oaf he had become.

[Mithras]

Bran the B.R.O.K.E.N.

Because he has the best biceps.

[Lady Winter Rose]

6 minutes ago, Mithras said:

Bran the B.R.O.K.E.N.

Because he has the best biceps.

 

and what does this has to do with the topic? You're effectively trolling, because you can go past the tv show. We all get it, the end is shambles, move over. Also, at this point anyone random won't be an option.

[The hairy bear]

10 hours ago, Lord Varys said:

The same with Cersei's children - which I also don't think Robert would want to harm on his deathbed or see harmed/murdered by his successor. I could be wrong there, but the way Robert behaves on his deathbed shows he wasn't as rotten a guy as Ned feared earlier.

I am not sure about that. The effect that the revelation that he had been cuckolded his entire life would have on a dying Robert would be unpredictable, but my guess is that he would have reacted with uncontrollable rage. If Ned also told him that he warned Cersei about his discovery three days ago, he could also deduce that his death had been orchestrated by the Lannisters. Perhaps he'd even blame Ned for causing it.

Robert already despised Joffrey, and knowing that he is not his son would likely boost the feeling to outright hatred. While they were around, the three kids would be a living reminder of his biggest humiliation, and according to his mindset, creatures born out of incest are an aberration anyway.

In short, I would contemplate the possibility that Robert would want Cersei's children killed, or at least Joffrey. And since Eddard wouldn't be up to the task and had already failed him, Robert may want to find someone else to carry on his will.

[Lord Varys]

7 hours ago, TsarGrey said:

I imagine that while Ned may mouth off to Robert occasionally and does oppose him when he's got a good enough reason to, he wouldn't deny him in this (serving as regent to Edric). First off, Robert is the king and Ned knows it. He opposes him to protect the children and might very well reject the throne for himself (doesn't want it, has no claim whatsoever, thinks it belongs to Stannis or whoever is the next in line), but to refuse to serve as regent for Edric... well, why exactly? For his own comfort? For the sake of tradition, even when there are precedents of kings legitimizing their bastards and the Blackfyres subsequently claimed the throne? Some other reason?

The one reason why Ned might not want to do that is if he feels that the throne should go to Stannis or Renly rather than a bastard. But Robert's illegitimate children - especially Edric - would come up in a discussion about the twincest since Robert and Ned both will inevitably think about them when addressing the fact that Robert doesn't have any trueborn children.

In that I think that option is the most likely, but they would definitely need Renly onboard with that plan, considering Renly controls Edric's person who is fostered at Storm's End. If he was to refuse or stall then this thing might not work. Ned would need Edric physically in the Red Keep and on the Iron Throne as quickly as possible to prevent Stannis from making an independent bid for the throne.

Assuming Ned can arrest Cersei and the children and prevent the proclamation of a King Joffrey in the Red Keep ... Tywin and Jaime proclaiming Joffrey king in the field he would not be able to stop once they learn about Robert's death.

7 hours ago, TsarGrey said:

Also, such a situation would give him an opportunity to handle the legacy of the first Baratheon king, his friend, in a way he sees fit and take care of Robert's children... not only Edric, but also Gendry, Mya, Barra, and the rest he could find.

Yes, I think that would be the point where they would settle on the Edric idea when discussing things - Ned would point out that Robert does have children, and that he, Ned, would gladly take care of them all. They could even decide to legitimize both Edric and Mya, since Robert might also ask Ned to take care of her, specifically. Edric and Mya are the only bastards Robert formally acknowledged (sort of) while he was still alive (Mya wouldn't be a Stone if Robert hadn't acknowledged her while he was back in the Vale since he mother was a commoner not a noblewoman).

7 hours ago, TsarGrey said:

Makes sense to me as long as we assume that the 'deathbed amends mode' holds. For the latter question, nope. They might not think of legitimizing Edric though, and Stannis as a proven commander and notoriously merciless man might be a choice to realise Robert's revenge if his wrath wins out.

The problem with the Stannis idea is that he isn't in the capital. Robert and Ned would need Renly and Barristan Selmy and perhaps even Littlefinger (he controls the City Watch) onboard with whatever they want to do, or else the chances are not that bad that Cersei would still be able to thwart them - or at least flee the city with her children.

If they all agreed that Stannis was the right choice then this certainly could work, but my entire point was that I think Robert wanted Ned to rule, and that's not something that would happen if the throne was handed to Stannis.

Crowning Edric also has the advantage that the throne is passed to a son of Robert's - which is the ideal in a hereditary monarchy.

5 hours ago, The Young Maester said:

It’s likely that Robert in his deathbed was more the Robert from the rebellion. It explains how Ned and Robert were friends in the first place.

Made me realise that it is probable that roberts whole reign flashed through his eyes, and it made him regret the fat oaf he had become.

It is quite clear that something like that happens. Robert thinks the gods sent the boar to kill him because he plotted to murder Daenerys.

1 hour ago, The hairy bear said:

I am not sure about that. The effect that the revelation that he had been cuckolded his entire life would have on a dying Robert would be unpredictable, but my guess is that he would have reacted with uncontrollable rage. If Ned also told him that he warned Cersei about his discovery three days ago, he could also deduce that his death had been orchestrated by the Lannisters. Perhaps he'd even blame Ned for causing it.

I'm not sure Robert still had the strength to rage uncontrollably. I'd expect that this revelation would just shatter/hurt him more - which is why Ned didn't tell him - but people whose guts are spilling out are not likely to focus that much on revenge and rage and all that. It is not something you do all that often when you are dying.

You do have a point that Robert realizing Cersei may have arranged his accident somehow could certainly trigger further rage ... but keep in mind that Ned only realizes that Robert may have been (sort of) murdered after he spoke with Varys after he already left Robert's bedchamber. And I don't think Robert would ever concede that Cersei 'murdered him through Lancel' since that honor goes to the boar.

And we should not assume that Ned gives a long explanation about his investigation of Jon's murder and his earlier talk with Cersei, etc. Robert is dying, so they would have to focus on the business at hand - the succession and the subsequent government and how they stop Joffrey's ascension - and not who made what mistakes earlier.

1 hour ago, The hairy bear said:

Robert already despised Joffrey, and knowing that he is not his son would likely boost the feeling to outright hatred. While they were around, the three kids would be a living reminder of his biggest humiliation, and according to his mindset, creatures born out of incest are an aberration anyway.

Robert was concerned about Joffrey ... he did not despise him. He was confused about how he could have produced a son of that temperament and he beat him up for the cat incident - that's it. You do have to be a very shitty/evil person to actually consider or approve of the murder of innocent children you raised as your own for over/close to ten years. This is not the same as looking the other way in the case of Rhaegar's children - the children of a man you hated with every fiber of your being - nor the assassination of a young girl you never even met (and whose brother and husband are clearly plotting against you and your family).

Disinheriting them - sure, that's something Robert most likely would want. He already had doubts about Joffrey wearing the crown while Cersei whispers in his ear. But outright killing them is something beyond what's even accepted by Westerosi societal norms. Very few people would agree to be a part of this, even if Robert were to demand it.

And Robert would be completely dependent on Ned and whoever else they bring onboard to implement the new succession and arrest Cersei and her people - he cannot just make proclamations and then expect that Ned, etc. execute them. If Robert had a Gregor- or Sandor-like bloodhound commanding a hundred men-at-arms who would do anything he told them, then such a scenario would make sense. But he doesn't have them - and even if he did, he could not contact them directly, he would have to go through Ned.

1 hour ago, The hairy bear said:

In short, I would contemplate the possibility that Robert would want Cersei's children killed, or at least Joffrey. And since Eddard wouldn't be up to the task and had already failed him, Robert may want to find someone else to carry on his will.

Renly certainly would be willing to do that, so if Ned were to call him back in before they settled the succession between them, then this is a scenario that's possible. But even Renly wouldn't do that for free, so if Robert definitely wanted to see the children dead, he would most likely have to agree to hand the crown to Renly, because I cannot see Renly butcher innocent children and take on the stigma of the kinslayer just because he loved his big brother.

But if we think how things would continue after Ned telling Robert then the men they would rely on to prevent Joffrey's ascension would be then Barristan Selmy would be the other crucial man. They would have to have the Kingsguard. And Selmy would never be part of a plan that involved the murder of the children.

[Alexis-something-Rose]

I can very much see Robert bypassing his rightful heirs and named Ned his successor. But I think that Ned would have turned around and called for a great council. 

[Ivan Tsarevich]

2 hours ago, Lord Varys said:

The one reason why Ned might not want to do that is if he feels that the throne should go to Stannis or Renly rather than a bastard. But Robert's illegitimate children - especially Edric - would come up in a discussion about the twincest since Robert and Ned both will inevitably think about them when addressing the fact that Robert doesn't have any trueborn children.

He might feel so, but I think he would be okay with legitimizing and crowning Edric if that's what Robert wants to do. Robert is effectively two people to Ned: his old friend and the king of the realm. I think Ned actually respects Robert's authority to a point, and he certainly carries out and weaponizes the king's justice. I don't think he defies Robert just for fun. That's obviously just my opinion though.

If you want to see what I think, you might choose to check Eddard's first chapter, where they visit the crypts. Robert is referred in third person at least once off top of my head.

"In peace, the title is only an honor. Let the boy keep it. For his father's sake if not his own. Surely you owe Jon that much for his service."

The king was not pleased. He took his arm from around Ned's shoulders. "Jon's service was the duty he owed his liege lord. I am not ungrateful, Ned. You of all men ought to know that. But the son is not the father. A mere boy cannot hold the east." Then his tone softened. "Enough of this. There is a more important office to discuss, and I would not argue with you." Robert grasped Ned by the elbow. "I have need of you, Ned."

"I am yours to command, Your Grace. Always." They were words he had to say, and so he said them, apprehensive about what might come next.

Then again, I may be reading too much into this (though I remember another instance as well, Eddard VIII).

"I shall begin making arrangements at once, my lord. We will need a fortnight to ready everything for the journey."

"We may not have a fortnight. We may not have a day. The king mentioned something about seeing my head on a spike." Ned frowned. He did not truly believe the king would harm him, not Robert. He was angry now, but once Ned was safely out of sight, his rage would cool as it always did.

Suddenly, uncomfortably, he found himself recalling Rhaegar Targaryen. Fifteen years dead, yet Robert hates him as much as ever. It was a disturbing notion … and there was the other matter, the business with Catelyn and the dwarf that Yoren had warned him of last night. That would come to light soon, as sure as sunrise, and with the king in such a black fury … Robert might not care a fig for Tyrion Lannister, but it would touch on his pride, and there was no telling what the queen might do.

2 hours ago, Lord Varys said:

In that I think that option is the most likely, but they would definitely need Renly onboard with that plan, considering Renly controls Edric's person who is fostered at Storm's End. If he was to refuse or stall then this thing might not work. Ned would need Edric physically in the Red Keep and on the Iron Throne as quickly as possible to prevent Stannis from making an independent bid for the throne.

Assuming that i) Stannis might do it and ii) Ned would prepare for the possibility, well, yeah. I don't really expect that Renly would be a problem... Edric as king would presumably allow him to secure and keep his power and position and root out the Lannister influence in the court and capital, while also allowing him to do so by completely legal means and thus winning allies in Ned and his Tully in-laws. Renly may not care about legality, but he probably would care for allies. And given that Renly has fostered Edric and would serve him further in this, he would have a good reason to expect royal favor.

What is perhaps more interesting is Edric's prospective queen, if that came up. Robert would probably want to betroth Edric to Sansa, and that would certainly tie Ned to Edric even more tightly... but there was the Margaery plot, and Renly might suggest her instead. There's also Shireen, of course.

2 hours ago, Lord Varys said:

Assuming Ned can arrest Cersei and the children and prevent the proclamation of a King Joffrey in the Red Keep ... Tywin and Jaime proclaiming Joffrey king in the field he would not be able to stop once they learn about Robert's death.

Yep. And given that Tywin was mobilizing ahead of others and has demonstrated ability to move fast (Reynes and Tarbecks, reaching KL sooner than Ned before the Sack, perhaps the Wot5K) he might be able to threaten KL before anyone else manages to oppose him. If you then entertain the possibility that the Watch might betray the city, and that Pycelle, if not removed, could leak all he knows to Tywin as fast as he can, and add in whatever Littlefinger might do... this could backfire. Badly.

2 hours ago, Lord Varys said:

Yes, I think that would be the point where they would settle on the Edric idea when discussing things - Ned would point out that Robert does have children, and that he, Ned, would gladly take care of them all. They could even decide to legitimize both Edric and Mya, since Robert might also ask Ned to take care of her, specifically. Edric and Mya are the only bastards Robert formally acknowledged (sort of) while he was still alive (Mya wouldn't be a Stone if Robert hadn't acknowledged her while he was back in the Vale since he mother was a commoner not a noblewoman).

Nothing to add here.

2 hours ago, Lord Varys said:

The problem with the Stannis idea is that he isn't in the capital. Robert and Ned would need Renly and Barristan Selmy and perhaps even Littlefinger (he controls the City Watch) onboard with whatever they want to do, or else the chances are not that bad that Cersei would still be able to thwart them - or at least flee the city with her children.

If they all agreed that Stannis was the right choice then this certainly could work, but my entire point was that I think Robert wanted Ned to rule, and that's not something that would happen if the throne was handed to Stannis.

How extensive is Littlefinger's control over the Watch though? He seems to be able to bribe them and Stannis thinks he had dealings with Slynt, and Tyrion thinks something of him putting his men in positions (evidently true, as seen with the Kettleblacks) but formally they might actually answer to Renly, the master of laws. If Ned, Renly and Barristan move quickly as Renly wanted to do, they could perhaps seize the initiative and be able to wield the gold cloaks. Renly might very well have more intimate knowledge and opinions of the officers of the Watch if they fall under his bailiwick.

2 hours ago, Lord Varys said:

Crowning Edric also has the advantage that the throne is passed to a son of Robert's - which is the ideal in a hereditary monarchy.

Out of curiosity, would you care to elaborate on your thinking in this? Ignoring the R'hllorism and Stannis' reputation, one might think that trueborn adult brother might be just the thing that a fledgling dynasty needs, instead of taking bit dodgy step to legitimize a bastard in his minority.

[Lord Varys]

6 hours ago, Alexis-something-Rose said:

I can very much see Robert bypassing his rightful heirs and named Ned his successor. But I think that Ned would have turned around and called for a great council. 

First he would have done his best to dissuade Robert from such an action, because he clearly would not want to be king ... and he would correctly assume that this would be something they could not push through, not with the Lannisters, not with the other lords, and not with Robert's own brothers.

But it is still something that I think Robert would have felt was the best thing to do.

3 hours ago, TsarGrey said:

He might feel so, but I think he would be okay with legitimizing and crowning Edric if that's what Robert wants to do. Robert is effectively two people to Ned: his old friend and the king of the realm. I think Ned actually respects Robert's authority to a point, and he certainly carries out and weaponizes the king's justice. I don't think he defies Robert just for fun. That's obviously just my opinion though.

Oh, I think Ned could get quickly onboard of the Edric idea, I just considered the possibility what he would do or argue for if he, for some reason, did not like that idea or did not feel that it was a great idea.

3 hours ago, TsarGrey said:

Assuming that i) Stannis might do it and ii) Ned would prepare for the possibility, well, yeah. I don't really expect that Renly would be a problem... Edric as king would presumably allow him to secure and keep his power and position and root out the Lannister influence in the court and capital, while also allowing him to do so by completely legal means and thus winning allies in Ned and his Tully in-laws. Renly may not care about legality, but he probably would care for allies. And given that Renly has fostered Edric and would serve him further in this, he would have a good reason to expect royal favor.

Renly shouldn't have that much of a problem with that ... but then, we don't really know when exactly he came up with the notion that he could be king himself. Chances are not that bad that he would think much more about that if he actually learned from Robert and Ned that Cersei's children have no claim, so technically the legitimate Baratheons left are down to Stannis, Shireen, and Renly himself.

But as you say - the fact that Edric was fostered with Renly indicates Renly could very much profit from a King Edric, meaning chances are not that bad that he would approve of such an idea.

And as I said - they definitely would need Renly onboard of this plan to get control of Edric's person and physically put him on the Iron Throne. They could not simply teleport the boy from Storm's End to KL. And this technically also gives Renly the opportunity to stall and maneuver himself into a position where he could seize the throne before a King Edric is formally crowned and anointed.

3 hours ago, TsarGrey said:

What is perhaps more interesting is Edric's prospective queen, if that came up. Robert would probably want to betroth Edric to Sansa, and that would certainly tie Ned to Edric even more tightly... but there was the Margaery plot, and Renly might suggest her instead. There's also Shireen, of course.

Oh, I think Robert wouldn't give Edric's marriage much thought - he was dying. Ned and Renly would have to think about that. Sansa would be one logical choice to bind the young king even closer to his regent, but Margaery Tyrell wouldn't be a bad option, either.

I guess Robert could tell Ned to marry Edric to Sansa the way he suggested the Joffrey-Sansa match ... but they could just as well not think about/forget that entire issue.

3 hours ago, TsarGrey said:

Yep. And given that Tywin was mobilizing ahead of others and has demonstrated ability to move fast (Reynes and Tarbecks, reaching KL sooner than Ned before the Sack, perhaps the Wot5K) he might be able to threaten KL before anyone else manages to oppose him. If you then entertain the possibility that the Watch might betray the city, and that Pycelle, if not removed, could leak all he knows to Tywin as fast as he can, and add in whatever Littlefinger might do... this could backfire. Badly.

Tywin was already in the field, yes, but he was warring with the Riverlords, he wasn't prepared to march against KL. He could still try to do it, but if Renly were onboard with everything the Stormlords could be in the capital much faster, providing them with sufficient troops prevent a siege.

After all, Edric Storm would likely be escorted into the capital by a pretty large contingent of Stormlanders.

If Renly were onboard with things and they actually successfully arrested Cersei and the children, Littlefinger would behave. He would just try to betray Ned's allies in such a setting if there was a chance of success. And it wouldn't look like that if Ned and Renly were working together.

Ned's fate was sealed when he wasn't willing/able to work with Renly after Robert's death. If he had, Littlefinger would have likely not dared to betray him.

3 hours ago, TsarGrey said:

How extensive is Littlefinger's control over the Watch though? He seems to be able to bribe them and Stannis thinks he had dealings with Slynt, and Tyrion thinks something of him putting his men in positions (evidently true, as seen with the Kettleblacks) but formally they might actually answer to Renly, the master of laws. If Ned, Renly and Barristan move quickly as Renly wanted to do, they could perhaps seize the initiative and be able to wield the gold cloaks. Renly might very well have more intimate knowledge and opinions of the officers of the Watch if they fall under his bailiwick.

Littlefinger is the guy who keeps the money flowing, so with Robert dying/dead and the prospect of fighting in castle and city Littlefinger would be as much a key player as he is in the setting we got.

But whether they need him would hinge on the question whether they can arrest Cersei and the children. If they were to happen, then Littlefinger and the City Watch and everybody else would fall in line at least until an enemy was threatening to take the city.

3 hours ago, TsarGrey said:

Out of curiosity, would you care to elaborate on your thinking in this? Ignoring the R'hllorism and Stannis' reputation, one might think that trueborn adult brother might be just the thing that a fledgling dynasty needs, instead of taking bit dodgy step to legitimize a bastard in his minority.

Oh, that's just because it is the standard that sons follow their fathers and stuff. And if you check the Targaryen history then siblings are rather often overlooked - for instance, when Jaehaerys I is lacking an heir of his own body then Aerea is named his heir ... but he does have another heir in both Rhaena and Alysanne.

And, of course, if Robert wanted Stannis as his successor he could easily do that, too. But the entire point of my argument here is that he actually wanted Ned to be rule/be (effectively) king. And that would work best if Ned served as regent for a minor king.

I also expect that Robert might want one of his bastards legitimized and continue his line once he realized that Cersei's children weren't his - that would be part of the way to send a big 'fuck you!' to Cersei.

[FictionIsntReal]

On 3/23/2021 at 8:00 PM, Lord Varys said:

Like Robert did act before he was making amends on his deathbed. Stannnis would agree with Robert's original decision to murder the Targaryens in exile and would command something similar to happen after he is briefed on the Dothraki situation.

He might regret his specific action, but I don't think he had a full-on religious conversion. Stannis wasn't around when the issue came up and no one was expecting Daenerys to birth little dragons at the time of Robert's death.

The same with Cersei's children - which I also don't think Robert would want to harm on his deathbed or see harmed/murdered by his successor

I disagree, which is part of why Ned didn't tell him.

14 hours ago, The hairy bear said:

The effect that the revelation that he had been cuckolded his entire life would have on a dying Robert would be unpredictable, but my guess is that he would have reacted with uncontrollable rage.

My guess as well. Ned warned Cersei to flee because he expected something like that. I don't think getting gored by a boar will change that.

12 hours ago, Lord Varys said:

You do have to be a very shitty/evil person to actually consider or approve of the murder of innocent children you raised as your own for over/close to ten years.

Westerosi simply assume that the spawn of incest are abominations which deserve to be destroyed. Both Cat & Stannis immediately think of that with regard to Cersei's children.

I cannot see Renly butcher innocent children and take on the stigma of the kinslayer

They weren't actually Robert's, thus they aren't Renly's kin and he takes on no stigma. Instead the stigma is all on the incestuous Lannisters. Recall that in the story of Bael the Bard, kinslaying was about blood relations rather than raising someone.

5 hours ago, Lord Varys said:

If he had, Littlefinger would have likely not dared to betray him.

I don't think LF was being completely disingenuous, but I also think his long term plan was to destabilize any regime in place. So the betrayal might just be delayed a bit

I also expect that Robert might want one of his bastards legitimized and continue his line once he realized that Cersei's children weren't his - that would be part of the way to send a big 'fuck you!' to Cersei.

That's the most plausible motivation I've heard yet.

[Lord Varys]

7 minutes ago, FictionIsntReal said:

He might regret his specific action, but I don't think he had a full-on religious conversion. Stannis wasn't around when the issue came up and no one was expecting Daenerys to birth little dragons at the time of Robert's death.

Of course they were expecting Dany to birth little dragons. They knew she was pregnant. That's why they wanted to assassinate her. And Stannis would learn about that, too, if he was handed the throne.

7 minutes ago, FictionIsntReal said:

I disagree, which is part of why Ned didn't tell him.

No, that's wrong. Ned didn't tell Robert, because he did not want to cause him more grief on his deathbed. He earlier feared that Robert might murder the children ... but he never decided not to tell Robert because of that. He just gave Cersei a head start.

7 minutes ago, FictionIsntReal said:

Westerosi simply assume that the spawn of incest are abominations which deserve to be destroyed. Both Cat & Stannis immediately think of that with regard to Cersei's children.

That's wrong, too. No abomination born of incest was ever murdered in the books we read ... nor did anyone call on to murder them. Such people are shunned or abhorred, but they are not just murdered. Especially if they don't insist to marry each other and rule over other people.

Gilly and her son are viewed as abominations, too, but nobody suggests they should be murdered.

7 minutes ago, FictionIsntReal said:

They weren't actually Robert's, thus they aren't Renly's kin and he takes on no stigma. Instead the stigma is all on the incestuous Lannisters. Recall that in the story of Bael the Bard, kinslaying was about blood relations rather than raising someone.

That is a very, well, superficial interpretation of things. Renly and Ned could declare that the children are incestuous abominations, etc. ... but that would just be one narrative. The Lannisters (and perhaps other folks) would spread the tale that those were all lies and Cersei's children were Robert's trueborn heirs, etc. Some people would believe one story, some would believe the other. It would be same as with the two stories about the parentage of Daeron the Good - even if Cersei's children and the Lannisters would go the way Daemon Blackfyre took, it doesn't mean people would stop believing what they want to believe. And thus Renly could become as popular with the Westerosi as the kinslayer Brynden Rivers was.

If Renly were supposed to kill the children he viewed as his nephews and niece he would demand a price for that - because it would be a monstrous crime in any case. Both because of the kinslaying stigma and because it is just monstrous to murder - especially royal - children.

You are also wrong that the kinslaying stigma only extends to blood relations - Asha views Theon as a kinslayer because she believes he murdered Bran and Rickon. Murdering your foster siblings can make you a kinslayer, too, apparently. And Renly would definitely count as the foster uncle of Cersei's children.

7 minutes ago, FictionIsntReal said:

I don't think LF was being completely disingenuous, but I also think his long term plan was to destabilize any regime in place. So the betrayal might just be delayed a bit

Littlefinger has no motive to destabilize anything if the folks in charge give him what he wants ... and if helped to crush the Lannisters then he may have gotten everything he asked for, and more. The reason why he turned on Ned is that Ned insisted to hand the crown to Stannis. That would mean the end of Littlefinger's career and ambitions. He couldn't have that.

But for Ned and Renly running the government of King Edric he could do much and more.

[The Lord of the Crossing]

On 3/23/2021 at 8:14 PM, Lord Varys said:

I've been thinking about that question recently, and noticed something remarkably in Robert's deathbed dialogue.

Even before his death, Robert is resentful of the fact that he had become king - he goes on record saying that Ned or Jon would have been better suited for the job. He clearly isn't completely honest there, but he knows and understands that he sucks as king, doesn't have the temperament or patience for the business and government and is prone to follow his impulses rather than think something through. That's probably a realization he had as he grew fat and lazy - back during the Rebellion he most likely did want to be king, or else he could have refused to become a pretender to the throne.

But on his deathbed Robert finally does what he thinks are the right choices - he calls off the assassination of the Targaryens and he names Ned Lord Regent and Protector of the Realm.

Robert's phrasing when doing that is rather curious:

The reason why Robert chooses Ned as regent for his minor son is that he, rightfully, thinks Ned is very well suited for the job of ruling. In a very real sense he hands over the kingdom to Ned, not Joffrey.

And that is significant. He wants Ned to rule, because he views Ned as the (only) man with the right qualities to do so.

If we imagine for a moment that Ned did tell Robert about the twincest then Robert would have to make new arrangements. He wanted to hand over the government to Ned, but, as Ned himself muses, Stannis doesn't need a regent, he would rule in his own right.

I'm not very positive that Robert ever deluded himself into believing Stannis would be a great king. The man wanted to make things right on his deathbed, not wrong. Stannis on the throne would mean war, not just with the Lannisters (which would be necessary, after the revelation of the twincest, most likely) but also the Dothraki and the Targaryens because he, like Robert, wouldn't sit idly by while Daenerys gave birth to little dragons. Not to mention Stannis general personality.

And of Renly Robert is also very dismissive when he dictates his last will:

This indicates he would also not be very keen to pass over Stannis and install Renly as his successor, either, because Renly, too, would rule in his own right and Ned couldn't serve as his regent.

My idea is that Robert's first idea when considering his succession in light of the new knowledge - after he got over the wrath and shame and anger that would have come with the revelation of the twincest - would be to hand the Iron Throne to Ned.

In light of the revelation Ned would look even more like the only and best friend, most loyal servant, true brother, etc. Robert ever had - and he earlier did reveal that succession laws and dynastic concerns didn't really matter much to him when complaining about the fact that he had to be king.

Thus I think it actually could make sense to assume that rather than turning to either Stannis or Renly Robert would want to make Ned king in his stead.

Ned would most definitely not want that nor agree to that, so they would have to something else - and there, I think, Robert would then agree to legitimize Edric Storm on his deathbed and name his his successor with Ned serving as Lord Regent and Protector of the Realm to Edric as Robert originally had wanted Ned to serve Joffrey. If Ned were to reject this idea out of hand, Robert would then likely go with either Stannis or Renly, but I'm pretty sure his gut feeling (pun intended) would be that Ned take the reins of the government.

Also, if we assume that Ned tells Robert - and Robert remains in 'deathbed amends mode' - then both would want that the children not be harmed even if neither can succeed to the throne. And that's not something they could guarantee if Stannis or Renly were taking the throne to rule in their own right. Both would most likely gladly murder Cersei's children to ensure they could never be used as pawns to depose them. But Ned would protect Cersei's children, and Robert would know that.

Is that a scenario that would make sense to you guys? Or do you think Robert would definitely want Stannis or Renly to succeed him?

Robert would choose Renly.  Another rebellion is a strong possibility under Stannis.

[Lord Varys]

13 hours ago, The Lord of the Crossing said:

Robert would choose Renly.  Another rebellion is a strong possibility under Stannis.

That doesn't strike me as very likely considering Robert's assessment of Renly quoted by me in the first post. He would be more likely than Stannis, yes, but I'm pretty sure Robert would continue to want Ned to rule rather than either of his brothers.

There is a reason why he didn't name Stannis or Renly Hand after Jon's death. That alone shows where his priorities in the government department lie, in addition to everything that happened later.

[Ivan Tsarevich]

On 3/24/2021 at 11:23 PM, Lord Varys said:

Renly shouldn't have that much of a problem with that ... but then, we don't really know when exactly he came up with the notion that he could be king himself. Chances are not that bad that he would think much more about that if he actually learned from Robert and Ned that Cersei's children have no claim, so technically the legitimate Baratheons left are down to Stannis, Shireen, and Renly himself.

But as you say - the fact that Edric was fostered with Renly indicates Renly could very much profit from a King Edric, meaning chances are not that bad that he would approve of such an idea.

And as I said - they definitely would need Renly onboard of this plan to get control of Edric's person and physically put him on the Iron Throne. They could not simply teleport the boy from Storm's End to KL. And this technically also gives Renly the opportunity to stall and maneuver himself into a position where he could seize the throne before a King Edric is formally crowned and anointed.

Well, in Renly's boots I would be inclined to ally with Ned and the Tullys, available right there, rather than trust the stormlander banners and whatever support he might expect from the Reach (better a bird in hand than two in the bush), but then he might not.

And yeah, controlling Edric grants Renly an ability to go totally sideways on Ned and Robert if that's what he wants.

On 3/24/2021 at 11:23 PM, Lord Varys said:

Tywin was already in the field, yes, but he was warring with the Riverlords, he wasn't prepared to march against KL. He could still try to do it, but if Renly were onboard with everything the Stormlords could be in the capital much faster, providing them with sufficient troops prevent a siege.

After all, Edric Storm would likely be escorted into the capital by a pretty large contingent of Stormlanders.

Ah, but Tywin cuts his way across the riverlands with fire and sword, reaching and closing off the kingsroad south of Harrenhal before marching north. He could easily take that army to KL instead, should there be a need to so do. AGoT, Catelyn VIII.

"Less than a fortnight past, they fought a battle in the hills below the Golden Tooth," Robb said. "Uncle Edmure had sent Lord Vance and Lord Piper to hold the pass, but the Kingslayer descended on them and put them to flight. Lord Vance was slain. The last word we had was that Lord Piper was falling back to join your brother and his other bannermen at Riverrun, with Jaime Lannister on his heels. That's not the worst of it, though. All the time they were battling in the pass, Lord Tywin was bringing a second Lannister army around from the south. It's said to be even larger than Jaime's host.

"Father must have known that, because he sent out some men to oppose them, under the king's own banner. He gave the command to some southron lordling, Lord Erik or Derik or something like that, but Ser Raymun Darry rode with him, and the letter said there were other knights as well, and a force of Father's own guardsmen. Only it was a trap. Lord Derik had no sooner crossed the Red Fork than the Lannisters fell upon him, the king's banner be damned, and Gregor Clegane took them in the rear as they tried to pull back across the Mummer's Ford. This Lord Derik and a few others may have escaped, no one is certain, but Ser Raymun was killed, and most of our men from Winterfell. Lord Tywin has closed off the kingsroad, it's said, and now he's marching north toward Harrenhal, burning as he goes."

But sure, at least some of the stormlords could well support KL, as could the willing crownlanders and also Stannis, should he choose to properly support his nephew. They could still easily lose the city though, if Tywin parks his army of twenty thousand outside the walls and the gold cloaks open a gate or two. Still, the Red Keep could pose an additional hurdle, as the defenders could perhaps hold it even if the city itself is lost. I'm thinking the fall of Tarentum during the Second Punic War, where Hannibal was able to take the city with the help of conspirators but the Roman garrison managed to hold on to the citadel commanding the harbour.

Of course, it all depends how quickly Tywin and the various defenders can get there, which I think could be a tight race.

On 3/24/2021 at 11:23 PM, Lord Varys said:

Littlefinger is the guy who keeps the money flowing, so with Robert dying/dead and the prospect of fighting in castle and city Littlefinger would be as much a key player as he is in the setting we got.

But whether they need him would hinge on the question whether they can arrest Cersei and the children. If they were to happen, then Littlefinger and the City Watch and everybody else would fall in line at least until an enemy was threatening to take the city.

I think Littlefinger would be brought on board, as he's more or less a part of Ned's circle. But you do not really need Littlefinger to approach the Watch and promise money... Renly could easily fill that role, no? Unless the bribes are to be paid beforehand.

If Ned, Renly and Barry do not need the Watch to act, then Littlefinger is needed even less.