Robert's successor if Ned told him about the incest?

[Lord Varys]

10 minutes ago, TsarGrey said:

Well, in Renly's boots I would be inclined to ally with Ned and the Tullys, available right there, rather than trust the stormlander banners and whatever support he might expect from the Reach (better a bird in hand than two in the bush), but then he might not.

Oh, he would definitely want to work with Ned and his allies ... but perhaps to the ultimate goal to make himself king rather than Edric. If he were to agree to this plan of Robert's and Ned's we discuss here, he would have to play a longer game and first help Ned prevent the ascension of Joffrey while then maneuver himself into a position where he could, eventually, crown himself king before a King Edric could be properly installed.

While the boy isn't on the Iron Throne he isn't *really* king, even if the Small Council where to proclaim him king.

10 minutes ago, TsarGrey said:

Ah, but Tywin cuts his way across the riverlands with fire and sword, reaching and closing off the kingsroad south of Harrenhal before marching north. He could easily take that army to KL instead, should there be a need to so do. AGoT, Catelyn VIII.

That's somewhat later, no? And Ned and his people would try to keep things from Tywin as long as they can. They could technically repeat the Green ploy and only reveal Robert's death days or weeks after the man breathed his last ... or at least not reveal that Cersei and the children have been arrested and not comment on the coronation of a new king.

Any/all of that would prevent Tywin from marching against KL immediately.

And at the same time Ned and Renly would both have time to coordinate with their bannermen and other potential allies.

Also, you have to keep in mind that Cersei and the children would make very fine hostages against Jaime and Tywin. Would he even risk all their lives by marching against KL?

10 minutes ago, TsarGrey said:

But sure, at least some of the stormlords could well support KL, as could the willing crownlanders and also Stannis, should he choose to properly support his nephew. They could still easily lose the city though, if Tywin parks his army of twenty thousand outside the walls and the gold cloaks open a gate or two. The Red Keep could still pose an additional hurdle, as the defenders could perhaps hold it even if the city itself is lost. I'm thinking the fall of Tarentum during the Second Punic War, where Hannibal was able to take the city with the help of conspirators but the Roman garrison managed to hold on to the citadel commanding the harbour.

Renly raised his gigantic army rather quickly, so if we talk numbers Ned and Renly could have a strong army to defend KL pretty quickly. But more importantly, Tywin would have the problems that he might be attacked from all sides if he were to mount a siege of KL - Stannis could attack him from Dragonstone, Renly's bannermen from the south, the Tyrells from the Reach, and the Riverlords and Lords of the Vale and Northmen from the north.

10 minutes ago, TsarGrey said:

Of course, it all depends how quickly Tywin and the various defenders can get there, which I think could be a close race.

You also have to consider that the city can be defended pretty well, and if they have a couple of thousands professional soldiers inside then even 20,000 men attacking the walls might face considerable problems.

10 minutes ago, TsarGrey said:

I think Littlefinger would be brought on board, as he's more or less a part of Ned's circle. But you do not really need Littlefinger to approach the Watch and promise money... Renly could easily fill that role, no? Unless the bribes are to be paid beforehand.

If Ned, Renly and Barry do not need the Watch to act, then Littlefinger is needed even less.

I don't think Littlefinger would dare oppose Ned if he teamed up with Renly. And he would not want to, considering Renly and Littlefinger apparently got along pretty well. In fact, I think Littlefinger's plan was to eventually betray the Lannisters to Renly once he came knocking at the door. The City Watch was in his pocket while Slynt was running the show, so the idea is that he would convince them to open the gates when Renly and his gigantic army came knocking. There is no chance that he would have supported the Lannisters against Renly's huge coalition.

But you are right that Renly could also hold considerable sway over the City Watch and Slynt. We don't know how well he got along with them.

[Targaryeninkingslanding]

I mean he has the Acknowledged bastard Edric Stone. If Jon is eligible for winter fell, Edric makes a reasonable heir. he's probably got the best claim.

[Arthur Peres]

Knowing Robert he would probably pull a last "F, you Stannis !" and make Edric Storm his heir with Ned as regent.

[Ivan Tsarevich]

12 hours ago, Lord Varys said:

Oh, he would definitely want to work with Ned and his allies ... but perhaps to the ultimate goal to make himself king rather than Edric. If he were to agree to this plan of Robert's and Ned's we discuss here, he would have to play a longer game and first help Ned prevent the ascension of Joffrey while then maneuver himself into a position where he could, eventually, crown himself king before a King Edric could be properly installed.

While the boy isn't on the Iron Throne he isn't *really* king, even if the Small Council where to proclaim him king.

Something like this crossed my mind as well, though I am of the mind that stalling for time would be a bad idea (in the short term) on account of benefitting the Lannisters. Though of course, if Tywin were to march on KL, the prospective king Edric might be safer in Storm's End.

12 hours ago, Lord Varys said:

That's somewhat later, no? And Ned and his people would try to keep things from Tywin as long as they can. They could technically repeat the Green ploy and only reveal Robert's death days or weeks after the man breathed his last ... or at least not reveal that Cersei and the children have been arrested and not comment on the coronation of a new king.

Any/all of that would prevent Tywin from marching against KL immediately.

And at the same time Ned and Renly would both have time to coordinate with their bannermen and other potential allies.

Yes, I guess. The chapter at Moat Cailin takes place some two months after Robert's death if we believe this timeline, which itself warns us that it's inaccurate (the precise dates being estimates).

This brings us to what Tywin knows. I've seen an idea in these forums that Tywin was aware of the situation in the court before Beric was attacked (informed by Pycelle), and I like it, as I think Tywin's movements make more sense that way. He sends Jaime north toward Riverrun while he himself crosses the riverlands, reaching the kingsroad... and after that, he turns north. Marching toward Harrenhal can be easily explained just by riders sent by Cersei... but I think that if Tywin was going to escalate from raiding to a full-blown war, attacking the king's banner and marching to the riverlands in strength, then he should march straight to KL, threatening the capital and the king's person before the realm could react. Doing so, he could possibly capture the king, like Edward IV was imprisoned and later released after the battle of Edgecote Moor. But Tywin doesn't do this: he acts like all threats he faces come from the north.* Which makes more sense to me if he knows that Robert is dead, Ned imprisoned and Cersei and her children safe, KL held by the Lannisters.

*He of course should also account for Stannis and Renly, but with KL on his side, he could trust it to hold out like Tyrion says in ACoK (Tyrion V).

"The city will not fall in a day. From Harrenhal it is a straight, swift march down the kingsroad. Renly will scarce have unlimbered his siege engines before father takes him in the rear. His host will be the hammer, the city walls the anvil. It makes a lovely picture."

So if we assume that Tywin is informed of the events in the court before the real fighting in the riverlands begins, we can also logically assume that if Tywin is not informed of favorable situation, he either doesn't invade at all or does so in the manner he would if he was fighting against the entire realm. Which again means that KL, in my opinion, should be the prime target.

Of course, if Pycelle were able to send him a raven informing him of the arrest of Cersei and her children, KL should, again, be in the crosshairs.

But do note that while I like the idea that Tywin only invaded knowing that Robert was dead and Joffrey ascended, I also think he was, of course, already mobilized and ready to go, giving him a head start over the Tyrells, the stormlords and even the riverlords who also were mobilizing in response. Which is why I think Tywin has a real chance to bring greater force to the capital than the stormlords can in the same amount of time.

12 hours ago, Lord Varys said:

Also, you have to keep in mind that Cersei and the children would make very fine hostages against Jaime and Tywin. Would he even risk all their lives by marching against KL?

My first thoughts on this included that suggestion about three pieces (Lord Walderan Tarbeck) and the word "definitely". Yes, he very well might, just like he turned against Aerys despite Jaime being within the king's reach and continued the war after he (Jaime) was captured in the Whispering Wood, and like Robb marched south while Ned was held by the Lannisters. Jaime as well, if Tyrion can be trusted on the matter. The same chapter as above.

She ignored the jest. "If it was father who'd been taken captive, Jaime would not be sitting by idly, I promise you."

Jaime would be battering his host to bloody bits against the walls of Riverrun, and the Others take his chances. He never did have any patience, no more than you, sweet sister. "Not all of us can be as bold as Jaime, but there are other ways to win wars. Harrenhal is strong and well-situated."

12 hours ago, Lord Varys said:

Renly raised his gigantic army rather quickly, so if we talk numbers Ned and Renly could have a strong army to defend KL pretty quickly. But more importantly, Tywin would have the problems that he might be attacked from all sides if he were to mount a siege of KL - Stannis could attack him from Dragonstone, Renly's bannermen from the south, the Tyrells from the Reach, and the Riverlords and Lords of the Vale and Northmen from the north.

Did he now? Tywin after the Green Fork has news that Renly has claimed the crown, so one might assume that he is confident on his power by this point at the latest. Meanwhile, Tywin has marched to the Green Fork and back to the crossroads, though we should allow time for the news to travel. Whispers to Varys, a raven to Harrenhal, a rider to the crossroads.

Tywin would be crushed by the numbers and enemies on all sides if he failed to take the city quickly and did not retreat. (Which I think would be completely fine: the capture of Tarentum I referred to was not the first attempt Hannibal made. He was also approached by the Tarentine nobles two years earlier and marched on the city, but nothing happened and he moved away.) But the crux of this idea is that Tywin could move fast enough to threaten KL and then be able to take the city by treachery, bypassing the outer walls and perhaps even taking the Red Keep, as he was able to do during the Sack. Such success would mean that he would control the Iron Throne and all official power, could crown Joffrey... essentially achieve a situation very similar to the one he is in when we meet him in the crossroads inn. He could claim to be the injured party in all this, providing the narrative you've referred to (Joffrey the true king). He would still have to face down the rest of the realm, but that's what he does in the books we have.

12 hours ago, Lord Varys said:

You also have to consider that the city can be defended pretty well, and if they have a couple of thousands professional soldiers inside then even 20,000 men attacking the walls might face considerable problems.

See above. The idea is that there would be no need to assault the walls, the gates being opened from inside. There could be further detail... the capture of Tarentum happened at night and Hannibal had a surprise on his side.

12 hours ago, Lord Varys said:

I don't think Littlefinger would dare oppose Ned if he teamed up with Renly. And he would not want to, considering Renly and Littlefinger apparently got along pretty well. In fact, I think Littlefinger's plan was to eventually betray the Lannisters to Renly once he came knocking at the door. The City Watch was in his pocket while Slynt was running the show, so the idea is that he would convince them to open the gates when Renly and his gigantic army came knocking. There is no chance that he would have supported the Lannisters against Renly's huge coalition.

I may borrow this idea sometime.

[Lord Varys]

1 hour ago, TsarGrey said:

Something like this crossed my mind as well, though I am of the mind that stalling for time would be a bad idea (in the short term) on account of benefitting the Lannisters. Though of course, if Tywin were to march on KL, the prospective king Edric might be safer in Storm's End.

Yes, but again - they would have the means to control the flow of information somewhat and they could write letters themselves. And if they had Littlefinger onboard they could also count on there coming help from the Vale.

And you have to keep in mind that Tywin and Jaime would be unreachable in the field via raven, especially after they left the West. If Pycelle sent a raven to Casterly Rock somehow - and that's a big if considering I'd expect that Ned and Renly would take the men into custody/have their own men take charge of the ravens - then the people there would have to send riders to Tywin or send other ravens to castles closer to the army where then riders could be dispatched.

1 hour ago, TsarGrey said:

Yes, I guess. The chapter at Moat Cailin takes place some two months after Robert's death if we believe this timeline, which itself warns us that it's inaccurate (the precise dates being estimates).

Gathering sufficient men to defend KL against 20,000 Westermen is something they could do rather quickly. The Stormlands are close by, and if Renly were to inform his bannermen what Cersei did to Robert, etc. then they would respond very quickly. Stannis is also not unlikely to return from Dragonstone with the royal fleet in such a scenario ... assuming he doesn't oppose the succession of Edric Storm.

1 hour ago, TsarGrey said:

This brings us to what Tywin knows. I've seen an idea in these forums that Tywin was aware of the situation in the court before Beric was attacked (informed by Pycelle), and I like it, as I think Tywin's movements make more sense that way. He sends Jaime north toward Riverrun while he himself crosses the riverlands, reaching the kingsroad... and after that, he turns north. Marching toward Harrenhal can be easily explained just by riders sent by Cersei... but I think that if Tywin was going to escalate from raiding to a full-blown war, attacking the king's banner and marching to the riverlands in strength, then he should march straight to KL, threatening the capital and the king's person before the realm could react. Doing so, he could possibly capture the king, like Edward IV was imprisoned and later released after the battle of Edgecote Moor. But Tywin doesn't do this: he acts like all threats he faces come from the north.* Which makes more sense to me if he knows that Robert is dead, Ned imprisoned and Cersei and her children safe, KL held by the Lannisters.

By the time of the Green Fork Tywin knows what has transpired in KL. Cersei would have informed him, presumably via rider rather than raven, since he was in the field and unreachable by raven until he took Harrenhal - which also only happened after the Green Fork.

Tywin's original plan with the Gregor attack was to lure Ned out of KL, arrest him, and then exchange him for Tyrion. Jaime botched that by injuring Ned which caused him to send Beric instead.

If Robert himself and Ned had marched against the Westermen in the Riverlands - which is also a possibility - then I guess the idea of Tywin 'capturing them' and coming to terms with them is also a possibility.

A crucial problem of the Lannisters is that if Ned and Renly control the knowledge of Robert's death that they could inform the Riverlords what was going on - and they could adapt their own strategy accordingly. Tywin and Jaime would then both be much more concerned with Cersei and the children ... and not so much with Riverrun and the Riverlords and Tyrion. Which would enable the Riverlords to evade interactions with them to a point, meaning they could take them in the rear if they were forced to besiege KL.

1 hour ago, TsarGrey said:

*He of course should also account for Stannis and Renly, but with KL on his side, he could trust it to hold out like Tyrion says in ACoK (Tyrion V).

"The city will not fall in a day. From Harrenhal it is a straight, swift march down the kingsroad. Renly will scarce have unlimbered his siege engines before father takes him in the rear. His host will be the hammer, the city walls the anvil. It makes a lovely picture."

That is a too positive image Tyrion paints - Tywin just has 20,000 men, against Renly's 80,000-100,000. Renly has the strength in numbers to encircle and storm KL while at the same time fighting a pitched battle against the Westermen attacking his rear. He would have to prepare for that, of course, to use scouts and outriders to know when/if the Lannisters were coming, but that's definitely doable considering his army was full of very competent generals and soldiers - Randyll Tarly, Mathis Rowan, etc.

1 hour ago, TsarGrey said:

So if we assume that Tywin is informed of the events in the court before the real fighting in the riverlands begins, we can also logically assume that if Tywin is not informed of favorable situation, he either doesn't invade at all or does so in the manner he would if he was fighting against the entire realm. Which again means that KL, in my opinion, should be the prime target.

You have a point that he might be very much tempted to try this, because it would be basically the only way to turn things around again. But my guess is that he would fail if he attempted that. And it would be, in the end, a guarantee that Cersei and the children are killed. Renly would not allow Cersei and the children to be freed by Tywin, and even Ned might take their heads if he ended up using them as hostages against Tywin - which he would.

Ned is supposedly determined enough to kill Theon if Balon ever rose again, so he would also do that with Cersei, Joffrey, and the other children.

Even if Tywin took KL - if the children are dead or not in his hands (because Renly and Ned took them with them when they fled, say) then he would still lose the war, since he cannot crown himself, nor expect that the Realm does, in the end, buy his version of the story - that Cersei's children were Robert's.

Not in light of how unpopular he and his house are.

1 hour ago, TsarGrey said:

Of course, if Pycelle were able to send him a raven informing him of the arrest of Cersei and her children, KL should, again, be in the crosshairs.

I don't think that would happen. Ned and Renly wouldn't be that stupid.

1 hour ago, TsarGrey said:

But do note that while I like the idea that Tywin only invaded knowing that Robert was dead and Joffrey ascended, I also think he was, of course, already mobilized and ready to go, giving him a head start over the Tyrells, the stormlords and even the riverlords who also were mobilizing in response. Which is why I think Tywin has a real chance to bring greater force to the capital than the stormlords can in the same amount of time.

A greater force certainly, but not a force that would allow him to take the city by storm. The city could be defended rather easily if a few thousand Stormlanders were manning the walls and protecting the gates.

1 hour ago, TsarGrey said:

My first thoughts on this included that suggestion about three pieces (Lord Walderan Tarbeck) and the word "definitely". Yes, he very well might, just like he turned against Aerys despite Jaime being within the king's reach and continued the war after he (Jaime) was captured in the Whispering Wood, and like Robb marched south while Ned was held by the Lannisters. Jaime as well, if Tyrion can be trusted on the matter. The same chapter as above.

She ignored the jest. "If it was father who'd been taken captive, Jaime would not be sitting by idly, I promise you."

Jaime would be battering his host to bloody bits against the walls of Riverrun, and the Others take his chances. He never did have any patience, no more than you, sweet sister. "Not all of us can be as bold as Jaime, but there are other ways to win wars. Harrenhal is strong and well-situated."

Yes, he did that, but if Cersei's children are all in the hands of the enemy then his entire legacy is in their hands. It is much worse than Tyrion or Jaime being in the hands of the enemy. Even more so since the enemy can effectively take away Tywin's pretext for his war simply by killing the children. Then Tywin will no longer have any pretenders in whose name he could fight.

And Tywin must also realize that in light of the twincest thing all of House Baratheon might be dead set against him - along with the entire Realm. What Jaime and Cersei pulled there is a disgusting that a majority of the lords could decide it was okay, necessary even, to eradicate House Lannister for good. He would have to think about whether he wanted to risk not just his own life and the lives of his children and grandchildren, but the lives and welfare of all members of House Lannister.

He could realize that he and his family are the Reynes now, and that they have overreached themselves.

I guess he might not understand this at first, hoping he could, perhaps, gain a more advantageous position and then broker a truce, etc. But the chances for that are very low if he actually attacks the capital and fails.

1 hour ago, TsarGrey said:

Tywin would be crushed by the numbers and enemies on all sides if he failed to take the city quickly and did not retreat. (Which I think would be completely fine: the capture of Tarentum I referred to was not the first attempt Hannibal made. He was also approached by the Tarentine nobles two years earlier and marched on the city, but nothing happened and he moved away.) But the crux of this idea is that Tywin could move fast enough to threaten KL and then be able to take the city by treachery, bypassing the outer walls and perhaps even taking the Red Keep, as he was able to do during the Sack. Such success would mean that he would control the Iron Throne and all official power, could crown Joffrey... essentially achieve a situation very similar to the one he is in when we meet him in the crossroads inn. He could claim to be the injured party in all this, providing the narrative you've referred to (Joffrey the true king). He would still have to face down the rest of the realm, but that's what he does in the books we have.

There is no chance that Tywin could succeed by treachery at KL. The Kingslanders loathe him and his family, the court would have to be cleansed of Lannister influence if Ned and Renly successfully arrest Cersei and the children (meaning Lannister cronies like Sandor, etc. are either dead or in black cells), the City Watch would also be onboard with the new regime, and they would have sufficient time to get some loyal Stormlanders and Crownlanders into the city to help defend it.

In addition, Stannis' people could also arrive to help them - which would also be a couple of thousand men.

Nobody would open the gates to Tywin.

1 hour ago, TsarGrey said:

I may borrow this idea sometime.

It is also supported by Littlefinger's suggestion to Ned - use Joff as a pawn until they dealt with Stannis, then reveal the incest and replace him with Renly. That is his suggestion before Renly decides to crown himself, of course. But if we interpret this as Littlefinger liking the idea of a King Renly then it stands to reason that he would have likely betrayed the Lannisters to Renly if Renly had ever made it to KL with his gigantic host. Because there was no chance that Tywin could defeat that army.

Especially not since Littlefinger himself could still use his Tully connections to get Lysa and, perhaps, even Cat and Robb on the Renly bandwagon.

[Ivan Tsarevich]

6 hours ago, Lord Varys said:

Yes, but again - they would have the means to control the flow of information somewhat and they could write letters themselves. And if they had Littlefinger onboard they could also count on there coming help from the Vale.

True.

6 hours ago, Lord Varys said:

And you have to keep in mind that Tywin and Jaime would be unreachable in the field via raven, especially after they left the West. If Pycelle sent a raven to Casterly Rock somehow - and that's a big if considering I'd expect that Ned and Renly would take the men into custody/have their own men take charge of the ravens - then the people there would have to send riders to Tywin or send other ravens to castles closer to the army where then riders could be dispatched.

I know, and that is certainly something to think of... though we also have to remember that while the raven/rider system is something that is supported by the text, there are also instances where George appears to make a mistake. AGoT, Catelyn X.

The night was warm, but the thought of Riverrun was enough to make her shiver. Where are they? she wondered. Could her uncle have been wrong? So much rested on the truth of what he had told them. Robb had given the Blackfish three hundred picked men, and sent them ahead to screen his march. "Jaime does not know," Ser Brynden said when he rode back. "I'll stake my life on that. No bird has reached him, my archers have seen to that. We've seen a few of his outriders, but those that saw us did not live to tell of it. He ought to have sent out more. He does not know."

Jaime is besieging Riverrun here. How exactly is a bird supposed to reach him? Would it be sent to Riverrun, and the Lannisters expected to shoot it down?

6 hours ago, Lord Varys said:

Gathering sufficient men to defend KL against 20,000 Westermen is something they could do rather quickly. The Stormlands are close by, and if Renly were to inform his bannermen what Cersei did to Robert, etc. then they would respond very quickly. Stannis is also not unlikely to return from Dragonstone with the royal fleet in such a scenario ... assuming he doesn't oppose the succession of Edric Storm.

We're agreed here, as you seem to agree below that Tywin could bring a greater force. I just think that if you remove the force multiplier, the city walls, then numbers would tell in the battle in the streets, favoring Tywin.

6 hours ago, Lord Varys said:

By the time of the Green Fork Tywin knows what has transpired in KL. Cersei would have informed him, presumably via rider rather than raven, since he was in the field and unreachable by raven until he took Harrenhal - which also only happened after the Green Fork.

Of course. I imagine he must have been informed of the events in the court around the time when he reaches the kingsroad at the very latest - as I think he should march to KL otherwise, rather than toward Harrenhal.

Tywin took Harrenhal before the Green Fork, as Tyrion is told in crossroads inn before they hear that Robb is coming south. Tyrion VII.

"Your father and I have been marching on each in turn," Ser Kevan said. "With Lord Blackwood gone, Raventree fell at once, and Lady Whent yielded Harrenhal for want of men to defend it. Ser Gregor burnt out the Pipers and the Brackens . . ."

6 hours ago, Lord Varys said:

Tywin's original plan with the Gregor attack was to lure Ned out of KL, arrest him, and then exchange him for Tyrion. Jaime botched that by injuring Ned which caused him to send Beric instead.

If Robert himself and Ned had marched against the Westermen in the Riverlands - which is also a possibility - then I guess the idea of Tywin 'capturing them' and coming to terms with them is also a possibility.

That's what Harwin says, and I'm disinclined to take his account at face value. It messes up my headcanon.

6 hours ago, Lord Varys said:

A crucial problem of the Lannisters is that if Ned and Renly control the knowledge of Robert's death that they could inform the Riverlords what was going on - and they could adapt their own strategy accordingly. Tywin and Jaime would then both be much more concerned with Cersei and the children ... and not so much with Riverrun and the Riverlords and Tyrion. Which would enable the Riverlords to evade interactions with them to a point, meaning they could take them in the rear if they were forced to besiege KL.

My thinking on this is pretty simple: KL (the king included) is the ultimate prize, while the riverlords pose an immediate threat. So the obvious course of action is to attack both, asap. Which doesn't deviate all that much from what we see Tywin to actually do.

That's assuming that Tywin does decide to escalate, of course. He could also not to, as I have said.

6 hours ago, Lord Varys said:

That is a too positive image Tyrion paints - Tywin just has 20,000 men, against Renly's 80,000-100,000. Renly has the strength in numbers to encircle and storm KL while at the same time fighting a pitched battle against the Westermen attacking his rear. He would have to prepare for that, of course, to use scouts and outriders to know when/if the Lannisters were coming, but that's definitely doable considering his army was full of very competent generals and soldiers - Randyll Tarly, Mathis Rowan, etc.

Agreed, yet I see no better option.

6 hours ago, Lord Varys said:

You have a point that he might be very much tempted to try this, because it would be basically the only way to turn things around again. But my guess is that he would fail if he attempted that. And it would be, in the end, a guarantee that Cersei and the children are killed. Renly would not allow Cersei and the children to be freed by Tywin, and even Ned might take their heads if he ended up using them as hostages against Tywin - which he would.

Ned is supposedly determined enough to kill Theon if Balon ever rose again, so he would also do that with Cersei, Joffrey, and the other children.

Even if Tywin took KL - if the children are dead or not in his hands (because Renly and Ned took them with them when they fled, say) then he would still lose the war, since he cannot crown himself, nor expect that the Realm does, in the end, buy his version of the story - that Cersei's children were Robert's.

Not in light of how unpopular he and his house are.

And that is the entire point. Such an attempt would be a desperate act, and the stakes very high. Yet Tywin might try to do it anyway: this is the game of thrones, where, to paraphrase Cersei, you win or you die. Hold the king and you hold the kingdom.

Killing the children would be logical, yet I'm not so sure that Ned would do it. Sending them away from KL, though... that's a good move, too, and more humane than the first.

6 hours ago, Lord Varys said:

I don't think that would happen. Ned and Renly wouldn't be that stupid.

Okay. In such a case, Tywin would make his decision that much more blind.

6 hours ago, Lord Varys said:

A greater force certainly, but not a force that would allow him to take the city by storm. The city could be defended rather easily if a few thousand Stormlanders were manning the walls and protecting the gates.

I have at no point suggested that Tywin would storm the city walls. He might, and indeed it's the logical course of action if he proceeds to invest the city, but that's not the point of my proposition here.

6 hours ago, Lord Varys said:

Yes, he did that, but if Cersei's children are all in the hands of the enemy then his entire legacy is in their hands. It is much worse than Tyrion or Jaime being in the hands of the enemy. Even more so since the enemy can effectively take away Tywin's pretext for his war simply by killing the children. Then Tywin will no longer have any pretenders in whose name he could fight.

And Tywin must also realize that in light of the twincest thing all of House Baratheon might be dead set against him - along with the entire Realm. What Jaime and Cersei pulled there is a disgusting that a majority of the lords could decide it was okay, necessary even, to eradicate House Lannister for good. He would have to think about whether he wanted to risk not just his own life and the lives of his children and grandchildren, but the lives and welfare of all members of House Lannister.

He could realize that he and his family are the Reynes now, and that they have overreached themselves.

I guess he might not understand this at first, hoping he could, perhaps, gain a more advantageous position and then broker a truce, etc. But the chances for that are very low if he actually attacks the capital and fails.

Tywin's whole legacy being held by the enemy raises the stakes even higher - he is more desperate. Which may make him more dangerous. The more sympathetic observers in-universe might also be more understanding of his plight... who wouldn't resort to arms when faced with a situation like this? His daughter unjustly slandered, his son fled from the capital at the peril of his life, his royal grandchildren, the rightful heirs to the throne, wrongly imprisoned and disinherited by this unknown northern heathen lord conspiring with the ambitious brother of the late king.

If Cersei and her children are executed, all Tywin needs to do is to wage war as he would otherwise - which, if one thinks that he invaded the riverlands unaware of the events in the court, he may have been prepared to do anyway. He might be able to cause great casualties upon his many enemies and wage a defensive war on the western soil, before eventually falling back to Casterly Rock.

You may be correct in your assessment that the attack on the capital might prevent him from eventually making a truce, especially if it turned bloody... but if it did not, say if he just marched on the city and then withdrew when threatened, then I think there might not be a downside to try. The potential (if elusive) gains, on the other hand, are great.

6 hours ago, Lord Varys said:

There is no chance that Tywin could succeed by treachery at KL. The Kingslanders loathe him and his family, the court would have to be cleansed of Lannister influence if Ned and Renly successfully arrest Cersei and the children (meaning Lannister cronies like Sandor, etc. are either dead or in black cells), the City Watch would also be onboard with the new regime, and they would have sufficient time to get some loyal Stormlanders and Crownlanders into the city to help defend it.

In addition, Stannis' people could also arrive to help them - which would also be a couple of thousand men.

Nobody would open the gates to Tywin.

The City Watch is corrupt, and Tywin is the richest lord in the realm. If Pycelle is not imprisoned or removed from his position, he would have a friend in the court. The betrayal is completely within the realm of possibility.

6 hours ago, Lord Varys said:

It is also supported by Littlefinger's suggestion to Ned - use Joff as a pawn until they dealt with Stannis, then reveal the incest and replace him with Renly. That is his suggestion before Renly decides to crown himself, of course. But if we interpret this as Littlefinger liking the idea of a King Renly then it stands to reason that he would have likely betrayed the Lannisters to Renly if Renly had ever made it to KL with his gigantic host. Because there was no chance that Tywin could defeat that army.

Especially not since Littlefinger himself could still use his Tully connections to get Lysa and, perhaps, even Cat and Robb on the Renly bandwagon.

Thanks.

[Lord Varys]

3 hours ago, TsarGrey said:

True.

I know, and that is certainly something to think of... though we also have to remember that while the raven/rider system is something that is supported by the text, there are also instances where George appears to make a mistake. AGoT, Catelyn X.

Yes, but we get a system later on. And to be sure - there would be ravens who can fly back to the place from the place from where they came, so if anyone sent some of those special multiple target ravens from a camp then the birds might find the way back there.

3 hours ago, TsarGrey said:

We're agreed here, as you seem to agree below that Tywin could bring a greater force. I just think that if you remove the force multiplier, the city walls, then numbers would tell in the battle in the streets, favoring Tywin.

I don't know, even if Tywin did in through one of the gates, the streets are narrow, etc. Tywin could only sack KL back in the day, because the gates were opened to him and he marched into the city and only then turned his men on the loyalists.

3 hours ago, TsarGrey said:

Of course. I imagine he must have been informed of the events in the court around the time when he reaches the kingsroad at the very latest - as I think he should march to KL otherwise, rather than toward Harrenhal.

Tywin took Harrenhal before the Green Fork, as Tyrion is told in crossroads inn before they hear that Robb is coming south. Tyrion VII.

"Your father and I have been marching on each in turn," Ser Kevan said. "With Lord Blackwood gone, Raventree fell at once, and Lady Whent yielded Harrenhal for want of men to defend it. Ser Gregor burnt out the Pipers and the Brackens . . ."

Oh, but that doesn't mean Tywin actually took possession the castle, just that Lady Whent left.

3 hours ago, TsarGrey said:

That's what Harwin says, and I'm disinclined to take his account at face value. It messes up my headcanon.

Oh, that makes the most sense. Tywin didn't want to make war against Robert. That would be suicide in light of the fact that Robert's younger brothers are powerful lords in their own right. If he killed Robert, they would avenge him ... and if he captured him, they would free him.

Tywin is far too smart to turn himself into a second Denys Darklyn.

3 hours ago, TsarGrey said:

My thinking on this is pretty simple: KL (the king included) is the ultimate prize, while the riverlords pose an immediate threat. So the obvious course of action is to attack both, asap. Which doesn't deviate all that much from what we see Tywin to actually do.

Timeline-wise things in the Riverlands may have gone differently, if Ned had informed them about what transpired in KL. If the Tullys had assembled a proper host, they could have taken Tywin in the rear if he wanted to march against KL. Their problem was that Edmure allowed them to defend their own lands, etc.

3 hours ago, TsarGrey said:

That's assuming that Tywin does decide to escalate, of course. He could also not to, as I have said.

Agreed, yet I see no better option.

He could also give up, wash his hands off Cersei and Jaime's abomination, remarry another cousin/niece, and father some more golden children.

3 hours ago, TsarGrey said:

And that is the entire point. Such an attempt would be a desperate act, and the stakes very high. Yet Tywin might try to do it anyway: this is the game of thrones, where, to paraphrase Cersei, you win or you die. Hold the king and you hold the kingdom.

Sure, it would be a gamble, but holding the king is not a very likely outcome, more going down with a fight.

3 hours ago, TsarGrey said:

Killing the children would be logical, yet I'm not so sure that Ned would do it. Sending them away from KL, though... that's a good move, too, and more humane than the first.

Ned would first give Tywin's terms to back down and save his life and lordship. Only if he were to ignore that would he go one step further - but if he made such a threat, he would back it up. He is a Stark of Winterfell, and he knows that he cannot afford to flinch. Especially not with Tywin.

3 hours ago, TsarGrey said:

I have at no point suggested that Tywin would storm the city walls. He might, and indeed it's the logical course of action if he proceeds to invest the city, but that's not the point of my proposition here.

The idea of him getting in via treason is a very big stretch ... meaning that if he got there ahead of everybody else he would have to try to storm the city or risk that Stannis, the Riverlords, the Arryns, the Tyrells, or the Starks take him in the rear.

3 hours ago, TsarGrey said:

Tywin's whole legacy being held by the enemy raises the stakes even higher - he is more desperate. Which may make him more dangerous. The more sympathetic observers in-universe might also be more understanding of his plight... who wouldn't resort to arms when faced with a situation like this? His daughter unjustly slandered, his son fled from the capital at the peril of his life, his royal grandchildren, the rightful heirs to the throne, wrongly imprisoned and disinherited by this unknown northern heathen lord conspiring with the ambitious brother of the late king.

The Lannisters don't really have any sympathetic observers in-universe, have they? I mean, what house does like the Lannisters? Some of their own bannermen, perhaps, but that's it. People only work with them, ally with them, because Cersei succeeded in installing her son on the Iron Throne. If that failed, then the entire Realm would either like to watch the proud lions be cast down ... or gladly partake in that endeavor.

3 hours ago, TsarGrey said:

You may be correct in your assessment that the attack on the capital might prevent him from eventually making a truce, especially if it turned bloody... but if it did not, say if he just marched on the city and then withdrew when threatened, then I think there might not be a downside to try. The potential (if elusive) gains, on the other hand, are great.

Yes, he certainly could try.

3 hours ago, TsarGrey said:

The City Watch is corrupt, and Tywin is the richest lord in the realm. If Pycelle is not imprisoned or removed from his position, he would have a friend in the court. The betrayal is completely within the realm of possibility.

Pycelle is a decrepit old man in his eighties. He cannot singlehandedly arrange it so that the city gates are opened to Tywin. Back then he persuaded Aerys II to trust Tywin, but he cannot do when talking to Ned and Renly.

Also, we can expect that Varys and Littlefinger would back this Ned-Renly regime for the time being - they would make sure that their ducks are all in row.

In fact, we would likely see a lot of Lannister-friendly people being arrested or dismissed from their post in such a scenario, making it very difficult to for Tywin to get in contact with folks who might represent him inside the walls. And I also don't see how he could extend any such offers to sympathetic men in the City Watch or elsewhere in the city.

The Antler Men were Baratheon loyalists on their own - but we have good reason to doubt that anyone would do something similar for the Lannisters. For that they simply are too hated in KL. Especially Tywin, personally.

[Jaenara Belarys]

On 3/24/2021 at 1:33 AM, Mithras said:

Bran the B.R.O.K.E.N.

Because he has the best biceps.

What in the holy hell?

11 minutes ago, Lord Varys said:

Pycelle is a decrepit old man in his eighties. He cannot singlehandedly arrange it so that the city gates are opened to Tywin. Back then he persuaded Aerys II to trust Tywin, but he cannot do when talking to Ned and Renly.

 

Pycelle is all that, but he is also a dirty old man forcing himself on serving girls. He's also a fool, so I agree with your assessment. 

 

[FictionIsntReal]

On 3/24/2021 at 9:51 PM, Lord Varys said:

Of course they were expecting Dany to birth little dragons. They knew she was pregnant.

Ah, I thought you were referring to the literal dragons she "birthed" at the end of the book!

he never decided not to tell Robert because of that. He just gave Cersei a head start

And he knew she didn't take advantage of his mercy, but instead stuck around.

That's wrong, too.

If the boy was truly Jaime's seed, Robert would have put him to death along with his mother, and few would have condemned him. Bastards were common enough, but incest was a monstrous sin to both old gods and new, and the children of such wickedness were named abominations in sept and godswood alike.

I guess Cat could just be wrong about Westerosi norms.

Gilly and her son are viewed as abominations, too, but nobody suggests they should be murdered.

"Fucked her own father," Sam heard one man say, as the wind was rising once again. "Worse than whoring, that. Worse than anything. We'll all drown unless we get rid of her, and that abomination that she whelped."

And thus Renly could become as popular with the Westerosi as the kinslayer Brynden Rivers was.

Brynden never alleged his half-brother to be an abomination, nor said brother's sons. I agree that the Lannisters would attempt to deny this, but if someone else holds the throne I don't think they'll have anywhere near as many people buying their story.

If Renly were supposed to kill the children he viewed as his nephews and niece he would demand a price for that - because it would be a monstrous crime in any case. Both because of the kinslaying stigma and because it is just monstrous to murder - especially royal - children.

Tywin hadn't made any demands prior to ordering the deaths of royal children, who were never alleged to be abominations. Admittedly, Tywin isn't Renly.

Renly would definitely count as the foster uncle of Cersei's children

Is "foster uncle" even a concept they have?

Littlefinger has no motive to destabilize anything if the folks in charge give him what he wants ... and if helped to crush the Lannisters then he may have gotten everything he asked for, and more. The reason why he turned on Ned is that Ned insisted to hand the crown to Stannis.

LF turns on people all the time without them doing anything to prompt it. He ordered Lysa to not only assassinate her husband, but then send a letter to Cat blaming the Lannisters. He then told her & Ned that the dagger was Tyrion's. Tyrion couldn't figure out why, because he hadn't done anything to LF (nor, as far as we know, had the other Lannisters). He wasn't surprised by the incest, but he kept that knowledge to himself. After arranging for a marriage alliance between the Lannisters & Tyrells, he then tips off the Lannisters of the Tyrell plans (betraying Sansa's trust in Dontos) to prevent it. Then he schemes to assassinate Joffrey at the very wedding whose agreement resulted in him being granted Harrenhal! And he steals Sansa away from his new supposed allies in the Tyrells. Then he betrays & murders Lysa, who had done everything he told her.

On 3/25/2021 at 4:11 PM, Lord Varys said:

There is a reason why he didn't name Stannis or Renly Hand after Jon's death

Part of it is that he misses his old friend and wants to have him around.

On 3/25/2021 at 5:10 PM, Lord Varys said:

In fact, I think Littlefinger's plan was to eventually betray the Lannisters to Renly once he came knocking at the door.

Possibly, but I doubt Renly could rely on his loyalty either.

[Lord Varys]

1 hour ago, FictionIsntReal said:

And he knew she didn't take advantage of his mercy, but instead stuck around.

That has nothing to do with what you claimed - that Ned's expectation that Robert might kill the children was part of the reason why he didn't tell him about the twincest (on his deathbed).

Stating obvious things that have nothing to do with the issue at hand do not really help your case...

1 hour ago, FictionIsntReal said:

I guess Cat could just be wrong about Westerosi norms.

You claimed that incest being an abomination involves the murder of said abominations - and that just is nowhere demanded, especially not in relation to the fruits of incest. Yes, they are abominations, too, according to the fucked-up moral system of Westeros, but they are also innocent (children).

Gilly and her son may be abominations, but nobody wants to murder them for that ... not even Gilly, who is both the fruit of incest as well as a willing participant in incest.

They want such children gone, not killed.

In relation to Cersei's children there is an obvious difference between King Robert in all his might and power sitting in judgment over Cersei and Jaime and then decreeing that the children, too, will be executed (or him arranging their murder). Robert was the king, and he could force the world to accept the twincest narrative as the truth ... he could even force Cersei to publicly confess all her sins and crimes before he she is finally executed.

That's all possible.

But in our scenario Robert dies the way he died ... the sole difference is that Ned tells him about the twincest and their are successful measures taken to prevent the coronation of Joffrey.

If it boils down to Ned and Renly declaring that Cersei's children aren't Robert's, etc. then there is still room for doubt ... and if it fell to Renly to murder the children then he would taint himself because, unlike with Robert himself, people could always say he was doing this because it profited himself, that the twincest story was a lie, etc.

It would make him look self-serving and evil, just as Stannis looked like with his story about the twincest.

1 hour ago, FictionIsntReal said:

Brynden never alleged his half-brother to be an abomination, nor said brother's sons. I agree that the Lannisters would attempt to deny this, but if someone else holds the throne I don't think they'll have anywhere near as many people buying their story.

It would depend how things go, but it is quite clear that Ned wouldn't have that, so if Renly were to insist to murder the children he would have to do that clandestinely/behind Ned's back. And as I said originally - if Robert demanded this to happen, he would most likely flat-out refuse to do it or stop the dying king from talking to anyone who would agree to do this ... not that there were many men in the castle who would be willing to do it.

Robert has no thugs in his service that we know of, and the men a dying Robert would need on his side to move against Cersei - Ned, Barristan, Renly - are not exactly known to be child murderers.

1 hour ago, FictionIsntReal said:

Tywin hadn't made any demands prior to ordering the deaths of royal children, who were never alleged to be abominations. Admittedly, Tywin isn't Renly.

The situations are not comparable - Tywin murdered women and children in a battle setting. That is completely different from arresting children and then murdering them. You can get away with the former because there is fighting in general, but the latter really blackens your reputation.

1 hour ago, FictionIsntReal said:

Is "foster uncle" even a concept they have?

In a sense, yes. Just think of Brynden Tully who was effectively also an uncle to Littlefinger, just as he was to Hoster's children. And if there are foster parents and foster siblings then there also other foster relations. In fact, Ned and Robert effectively are also foster siblings. Neither was fostered with the parents of the other, but they shared a foster father and lived as foster brothers at the Eyrie.

1 hour ago, FictionIsntReal said:

LF turns on people all the time without them doing anything to prompt it. He ordered Lysa to not only assassinate her husband, but then send a letter to Cat blaming the Lannisters. He then told her & Ned that the dagger was Tyrion's. Tyrion couldn't figure out why, because he hadn't done anything to LF (nor, as far as we know, had the other Lannisters). He wasn't surprised by the incest, but he kept that knowledge to himself. After arranging for a marriage alliance between the Lannisters & Tyrells, he then tips off the Lannisters of the Tyrell plans (betraying Sansa's trust in Dontos) to prevent it. Then he schemes to assassinate Joffrey at the very wedding whose agreement resulted in him being granted Harrenhal! And he steals Sansa away from his new supposed allies in the Tyrells. Then he betrays & murders Lysa, who had done everything he told her.

That is far too simplistic a view. Murdering Jon was Littlefinger's solution to Lysa's problem (that Jon wanted to send Robert to Dragonstone). This murder doesn't come out of the blue or without a motive. Blaming the Lannisters was both a way to ensure they would not be suspected as well as a means to ensure the Starks would accept Robert's offer. Lying about the dagger actually protected King Robert - the true owner of the dagger and thus the main suspect of the attempt. If Littlefinger had told the truth there, things may have gotten worse since Ned would have started to view Robert as a potential murderer. Tyrion was a way to deflect things and cool things down because he was far away at the time ... and not important enough that his downfall would really shake things up. If things ever came to a head Littlefinger could always claim he only lied to protect the king and those members of the royal family who had access to the dagger.

Littlefinger wanted to take Sansa to the Vale long before he even made a deal with the Tyrells. That goes back all the way to his message to Sansa in ACoK. He just messes with the Tyrells because Olenna first messed with him ... although she may not have been aware that he wanted Sansa for himself.

As for Joffrey - it is quite clear in AGoT that Littlefinger doesn't view Joff as good kingly material. He can be manipulated to a point, but he is a problem in the making, he has to go. He gives that much away in the plan he suggested to Ned - use Joff as a pawn until they have taken out Stannis, then reveal his secret, do away with him, and crown Renly. That makes clear that for Littlefinger Joffrey was always just a placeholder, a pawn he would work with as long as he had but a pawn whose days were numbered because if he were to ever rule in his own right he would be far too unpredictable.

Lysa Littlefinger also murders because she is completely unstable and he can no longer trust her. Yes, it is a very ugly thing to do, but there is no hint he planned to do this before Lysa was threatening to murder Sansa. He does it anyway, in part, most likely, because he was very pissed and very afraid that Lysa might harm or kill Sansa (in the future). But this wasn't something that profited him at all - instead it caused a series of problems he eventually mastered, but things would have worked much better with Lysa being still around.

[Ivan Tsarevich]

16 hours ago, Lord Varys said:

Yes, but we get a system later on. And to be sure - there would be ravens who can fly back to the place from the place from where they came, so if anyone sent some of those special multiple target ravens from a camp then the birds might find the way back there.

Hm.

16 hours ago, Lord Varys said:

I don't know, even if Tywin did in through one of the gates, the streets are narrow, etc. Tywin could only sack KL back in the day, because the gates were opened to him and he marched into the city and only then turned his men on the loyalists.

Feel free to disagree, but I see no reason to not maintain what I said. Fighting in the streets should be far easier than a storming the walls. Barricades, if defenders manage to raise some, are easier to overcome.

16 hours ago, Lord Varys said:

Oh, but that doesn't mean Tywin actually took possession the castle, just that Lady Whent left.

Well, I read it other way.

16 hours ago, Lord Varys said:

Oh, that makes the most sense. Tywin didn't want to make war against Robert. That would be suicide in light of the fact that Robert's younger brothers are powerful lords in their own right. If he killed Robert, they would avenge him ... and if he captured him, they would free him.

Of course, you can also entertain the possibility that Tywin was aware of Cersei's successful coup before invading.

I don't see the relevance of Renly and Stannis being lords... I think the westerlands have the strength to match everything the three Baratheons can muster between them well enough. That of course changes once you account for the rest of the realm.

Still, what I rather referred to is that Harwin tells us Tywin crossed the Red Fork in strength. I'd prefer him to utilize a major road, and so I am inclined to figuratively shoot the messenger and call the entire account into question.

16 hours ago, Lord Varys said:

Tywin is far too smart to turn himself into a second Denys Darklyn.

I've had Warwick the Kingmaker, Richard Neville, more in my thoughts during this discussion.

16 hours ago, Lord Varys said:

Timeline-wise things in the Riverlands may have gone differently, if Ned had informed them about what transpired in KL. If the Tullys had assembled a proper host, they could have taken Tywin in the rear if he wanted to march against KL. Their problem was that Edmure allowed them to defend their own lands, etc.

Edmure spreading out his men prior to the Lannister invasion is a result of Gregor's raids, providing an alternative explanation for why Tywin sent him, besides avenging his injured pride. I don't think that Harwin's interpretation of Tywin's plans is actually necessary for the story to function - which means that we do not need the plot about capturing Ned either.

Also, there's Jaime's army, which engages the riverlords both in canon and my proposal. That should cause some problems for the relief effort.

16 hours ago, Lord Varys said:

He could also give up, wash his hands off Cersei and Jaime's abomination, remarry another cousin/niece, and father some more golden children.

Of course. Do you think that's consistent with his character?

16 hours ago, Lord Varys said:

The idea of him getting in via treason is a very big stretch ... meaning that if he got there ahead of everybody else he would have to try to storm the city or risk that Stannis, the Riverlords, the Arryns, the Tyrells, or the Starks take him in the rear.

I'm not wedded to this idea of KL defecting, it came up just in this discussion. I really think it's possible though. My arguments on the subject have been inspired by the capture of Tarentum, and well, that was arranged beforehand. One could think ways to prearrange such betrayal when Tywin is yet to arrive... sending disguised men ahead, say, to bribe some defenders or overwhelm them themselves in a wrong place at the wrong time... but I see no real reason to continue this. There are ways for the city to fall. No need to get bogged down in the details.

He does not have to storm the city, no more than he needs to invade the riverlands or wage war for the sake of his offspring. He probably would lay siege to the city and try to take it, though, but he could do so in his own terms.

Stannis, during the battle of the Blackwater, was blind: the mountain clansmen killed his scouts. Tywin does not need to be, and we see him receiving a report of Robb marching south from Moat Cailin, while himself being in the crossroads inn. The point being, he could well move away from KL were he to come under threat. He might also withdraw if the attempt takes too long, should he worry that his enemies (the Tyrells, the stormlords, the riverlords) might cut him away from the west.

Do you perhaps think there's some better way to use his resources in case he chooses to wage war to protect his existing legacy? My proposal diverges from his movements in the text only in that his southern army should target KL. Is there a better alternative?

16 hours ago, Lord Varys said:

The Lannisters don't really have any sympathetic observers in-universe, have they? I mean, what house does like the Lannisters? Some of their own bannermen, perhaps, but that's it. People only work with them, ally with them, because Cersei succeeded in installing her son on the Iron Throne. If that failed, then the entire Realm would either like to watch the proud lions be cast down ... or gladly partake in that endeavor.

Yeah, didn't go deep in this. There probably would be some, though. Something of said bannermen crossed my mind, as well as some pious nobles abhorring the northern heathens, which probably should exist somewhere. Also the commons now that I think of it. I dare say Ned and Renly should have their own PR problems after installing King Edric... though given how popular Renly appears to be, that probably wouldn't hinder them much.

16 hours ago, Lord Varys said:

Pycelle is a decrepit old man in his eighties. He cannot singlehandedly arrange it so that the city gates are opened to Tywin. Back then he persuaded Aerys II to trust Tywin, but he cannot do when talking to Ned and Renly.

Pycelle is not necessary for the betrayal. I added him for any practical value he might have, but really all that is necessary is that some insiders can be persuaded to help the westermen, and the city could fall. I rather meant the gold cloaks.

16 hours ago, Lord Varys said:

Also, we can expect that Varys and Littlefinger would back this Ned-Renly regime for the time being - they would make sure that their ducks are all in row.

In fact, we would likely see a lot of Lannister-friendly people being arrested or dismissed from their post in such a scenario, making it very difficult to for Tywin to get in contact with folks who might represent him inside the walls. And I also don't see how he could extend any such offers to sympathetic men in the City Watch or elsewhere in the city.

Point acknowledged regarding Varys and LF, though neither of them can keep the entire city under Orwellian control, neither alone or together.

Tywin does not need to do this quietly. He can proclaim it loud and clear for everyone to hear that whoever assists him is richly rewarded. He can shoot the messages tied to arrows over the walls. If there is to be a siege, then everyone inside should know that. It's business as usual. And should he so do, willing betrayers could then contact him, not the other way around.

16 hours ago, Lord Varys said:

The Antler Men were Baratheon loyalists on their own - but we have good reason to doubt that anyone would do something similar for the Lannisters. For that they simply are too hated in KL. Especially Tywin, personally.

I'm utterly unconvinced by such a claim. I think that some poorer denizens of Flea Bottom, for example, might be completely willing to help some westermen over the wall in the dark of night, allowing the latter then surprise the defenders of some gate and open it. Such betrayers could then hope to hide their part in that while still enjoying their reward... or to start a new life in the Free Cities, for example.

[Lord Lannister]

So Ned comes out of Robert's chamber by himself and presents the Joffrey, Cersei and the Council with a note saying Stannis is heir instead of Ned being Regent? I can't see the end result being much different than what happened except if word gets out maybe it gives more credibility to Stannis' claim since the incest accusation didn't come from him. Either way Ned almost certainly loses his head.

[FictionIsntReal]

11 hours ago, Lord Varys said:

That has nothing to do with what you claimed - that Ned's expectation that Robert might kill the children was part of the reason why he didn't tell him about the twincest (on his deathbed).

Ned didn't want to tell Robert about the twincest while Cersei & her children were still within his reach, hence tipping her off so she could flee. If she's still there when Robert gets back, then the same problem still exists, and Ned decides he can just write the will to refer to "heir" rather than Joffrey and then handle the issue himself.

You claimed that incest being an abomination involves the murder of said abominations - and that just is nowhere demanded, especially not in relation to the fruits of incest.

I quoted someone saying they needed to get rid of Gilly and her child or they would be doomed to drown. How are they going to get rid of her without killing her while out on the water?

If it boils down to Ned and Renly declaring that Cersei's children aren't Robert's, etc. then there is still room for doubt ... and if it fell to Renly to murder the children then he would taint himself because, unlike with Robert himself, people could always say he was doing this because it profited himself, that the twincest story was a lie, etc.

I agree with that. It does depend on how convincing people find the twincest story. If Robert makes a decree to the entire small council, then perhaps Barristan's reputation would add some credibility that this was actually Robert's demand rather than others trying to pervert his will after his death.

Robert has no thugs in his service that we know of

It is striking that we know of a lot more Lannister men-at-arms. I guess that's part of Robert letting them have a lot of positions near him rather than placing his own people at such levels. Even the Master-at-Arms of the Red Keep was a Dornishman, and thus probably not a Robert diehard.

Ned, Barristan, Renly - are not exactly known to be child murderers

Renly is at least willing to violently seize Cersei's children from her. Yes, that's not the same as killing, but I'm guessing he'd be more up for that than the other two.

Tywin murdered women and children in a battle setting. That is completely different from arresting children and then murdering them. You can get away with the former because there is fighting in general, but the latter really blackens your reputation.

Fair enough.

In a sense, yes. Just think of Brynden Tully who was effectively also an uncle to Littlefinger, just as he was to Hoster's children.

Does anyone ever make note of Blackfish & LF's relationship?

In fact, Ned and Robert effectively are also foster siblings

That, I'll grant. They were actually raised together at the Eyrie. But would they have any relationship to Denys Arryn? Robert's kids were all raised in the Red Keep, whereas Renly's castle is Storm's End (where Edric Storm lives).

Blaming the Lannisters was both a way to ensure they would not be suspected as well as a means to ensure the Starks would accept Robert's offer

Jon's death was chalked up to natural causes, except by Pycelle who saw that Cersei wanted him dead and Stannis who made a similar deduction because of the incest. No one had any reason to suspect LF & Lysa at the time. And why does he want to ensure the Starks accept the offer? If his goal is to create conflict between the Starks & Lannisters, then it makes sense, but don't know what your theory is where he's just solving Lysa's problem about fostering Sweetrobin. LF makes clear he never loved Lysa when he murders her, so I would say his motivation is more about how it would help him than her. And he tells Sansa after Joffrey's assassination that he acts to create confusion among his enemies.

Lying about the dagger actually protected King Robert - the true owner of the dagger and thus the main suspect of the attempt.

The Starks didn't know Robert ever owned the dagger. Even Varys wasn't saying anything about it (and didn't contradict LF about it). LF's knowledge of the twincest, which he never revealed, indicates to me he's not really a loyalist of Robert's. And since Ned refuses to believe that Robert would hurt him or his family (whereas he already thinks the worst of the Lannisters), telling him the truth would not be nearly as risky to Robert as it is to Tyrion.

Tyrion was a way to deflect things and cool things down because he was far away at the time ... and not important enough that his downfall would really shake things up.

I can't buy the coincidence that he tells Lysa to blame the Lannisters for Jon Arryn, then he lies about another Lannister being connected to the assassination attempt on Bran. It's all designed to stoke conflict between the two, and for LF to rise up in the confusion while his "enemies" who don't know they're his enemies fight each other.

If things ever came to a head Littlefinger could always claim he only lied to protect the king and those members of the royal family who had access to the dagger.

I doubt Robert would accept such an answer. He remained in the dark about the dagger, which would not have been the case if LF were actually trying to help him out. If Robert knew what was going on he could try to get to the bottom of things, but instead there was just conflict between the Starks & Lannisters he didn't want.

As for Joffrey - it is quite clear in AGoT that Littlefinger doesn't view Joff as good kingly material

Yet he favored installing Joffrey as king anyway. He could have helped Ned keep him off the throne, but LF doesn't want a good king (especially not one who would oppose LF's corruption). Even one of Joffrey's worst decisions as king, executing Ned Stark, is implied to be something LF had a hand in by bribing Janos Slynt (LF was the only one who isn't noted as expressing surprise when Joffrey announced the sentence).

He can be manipulated to a point

All of LF's manipulations of Joffrey, like suggesting the jousting dwarves, is aimed at exacerbating his worst qualities. He's not trying to manipulate Joffrey into acting like a better king.

a pawn whose days were numbered because if he were to ever rule in his own right he would be far too unpredictable

LF tells Sansa that even Cersei is a pawn (he appears to view most people as that), whom he considers "utterly predictable". This doesn't mean she does a better job of ruling than Joffrey, rather she runs things into the ground after his death. And LF doesn't have a problem with Cersei running things into the ground, as he's off in the Vale with all the grain he's stored for the winter and a fugitive from the Lannister regime he can reveal when it's time for him to openly turn against them.

it caused a series of problems he eventually mastered

LF is cocky and regularly takes big risks because he thinks he can pull it off. It's almost as if he knows GRRM is protecting him from things like Tyrion doing anything in retaliation for LF framing him

[frenin]

On 3/26/2021 at 1:47 PM, TsarGrey said:

He would still have to face down the rest of the realm, but that's what he does in the books we have.

I think the difference between all v all and all v the Lannisters is quite clear. Whereas the Lannisters were everyone's enemies, everyone else was not everyone else's allies.

 

On 3/26/2021 at 7:41 PM, TsarGrey said:

He would still have to face down the rest of the realm, but that's what he does in the books we have.

It's not that it messes up your headcanon, it's simply too absurd to even entertain it. If Tywin didn't care about openly commiting high treason, he would have given Ned and Robert a real reason to  come out to get him by sending Gregor with his colors. He specifically doesn't do that to avoid becoming a traitor. Ned had resigned and was in a coma by then, so how in the could be intending to drawing him out??

And let's suppose that he captures Ned and then exchanges for Tyrion... Then what?? Both Robert and Ned would have been  loody livid and Ned would def get revenge. The plan simply doesn't make sense and it can be explained away by Harwin being on the road when he received the news on King's Landing and he messed up the timeline.

The simplest answer is likelier. He wanted the Riverlords to break the king's peace and thus having a free pass to invade them. He didn't need said free pass with Robert dead and Ned on a dungeon.

 

 

On 3/26/2021 at 7:41 PM, TsarGrey said:

Tywin's whole legacy being held by the enemy raises the stakes even higher - he is more desperate. Which may make him more dangerous. The more sympathetic observers in-universe might also be more understanding of his plight... who wouldn't resort to arms when faced with a situation like this? His daughter unjustly slandered, his son fled from the capital at the peril of his life, his royal grandchildren, the rightful heirs to the throne, wrongly imprisoned and disinherited by this unknown northern heathen lord conspiring with the ambitious brother of the late king.

Neither Tywin nor the Lannisters are liked enough for that narrative to have much hold, especially if the opposite narrative come from people far more respected (Ned) or beloved (Renly) holding the Throne.

 

About the issue with Tywin, i don't think he would back down, he goes straight to King's Landing, whether he succeeds or not depends entirely on whether there is Sack of King's Landing 2.0 or not.  I find it unlikely since Petyr wins nothing in such situation and he's likely to lose his life in such chaos and Ned believes him a competent Master of coin to keep serving under Edric.

If Tywin can't take the city before reinforcements come, he's dead. And given that Renly, Ned, Loras and the Redwyne Twins would be all in the Red Keep, reinforcements would be coming fast. 

I don't think that he would be able to blitzkrieg through the Riverlands in this scenario anyway, Tywin was expecting war, the Riverlands weren't, they believed Tywin would do the same, which is why they spreaded their forces so thin Had they known what was going on, said Ned sends a raven to Riverrun, then Tywin has a much  harder time trying to get out of it, since they would have concentrated their power and then... That's another story.

The odds are heavily against Tywin, as he has no one who he can rely on opening him the city and a few thousands of the well prepared knights can hold out long for reinforcements to come. But you'll never know.

 

 

6 hours ago, Lord Lannister said:

So Ned comes out of Robert's chamber by himself and presents the Joffrey, Cersei and the Council with a note saying Stannis is heir instead of Ned being Regent? I can't see the end result being much different than what happened except if word gets out maybe it gives more credibility to Stannis' claim since the incest accusation didn't come from him. Either way Ned almost certainly loses his head.

It's different in so far as Petyr and Cersei don't have time to collude and in such scenario what he does is unknown. 

 

What would Robert choose?? Make one of his bastards king and be done with it. But yes, i do think he'd kill Cersei's.

 

 

 

[Darth Sidious]

Well, it won’t be Ned Stark. The majority in Westeros are not going to bow and bend to a Stark.  

[Lord Varys]

8 hours ago, TsarGrey said:

Hm.

Feel free to disagree, but I see no reason to not maintain what I said. Fighting in the streets should be far easier than a storming the walls. Barricades, if defenders manage to raise some, are easier to overcome.

My point was that fighting in the streets would not allow Tywin to use the advantage of numbers he may have had. Streets are narrow. Tywin could sack KL because Aerys II opened the gates and invited the Westermen in. That is not our scenario here. There we would have one gate being opened to the enemy, something that wouldn't be kept secret for long.

8 hours ago, TsarGrey said:

Of course, you can also entertain the possibility that Tywin was aware of Cersei's successful coup before invading.

That doesn't fit with the timeline. He must have raised his troops long before that and that, in turn, means he was prepared for a war. But of course we should expect Tywin to change his strategy considerably after he learned that Robert was dead and Joffrey king now.

8 hours ago, TsarGrey said:

I don't see the relevance of Renly and Stannis being lords... I think the westerlands have the strength to match everything the three Baratheons can muster between them well enough. That of course changes once you account for the rest of the realm.

The fact that Renly and Stannis are great lords in their own right means they do have bannermen they can muster. They are not just landless princes or younger brothers like, say, Kevan Lannister is. And that, in turn, means that they have the standing and power base to motivate other lords to flock to their banners - something Stannis does poorly but Renly exceptionally well.

And in our scenario we have a pact between Ned and Renly, which basically means nearly the entire Realm could unite against the Lannisters between these two. Renly would bring the Stormlands and the Reach, Ned the North and the Riverlands and, with or without Littlefinger's help, the Vale. Even Dorne might join them considering it would have been a war against the Lannisters, meaning Doran might get his revenge, after all.

8 hours ago, TsarGrey said:

I've had Warwick the Kingmaker, Richard Neville, more in my thoughts during this discussion.

Warwick's presumption to arrest the king himself was the beginning of his downfall, was it not? This kind of thing is a very dangerous game, and Tywin was the man besieging Lord Denys back in the day. He knows how something like that is most likely to end.

8 hours ago, TsarGrey said:

Edmure spreading out his men prior to the Lannister invasion is a result of Gregor's raids, providing an alternative explanation for why Tywin sent him, besides avenging his injured pride. I don't think that Harwin's interpretation of Tywin's plans is actually necessary for the story to function - which means that we do not need the plot about capturing Ned either.

The story functions without a lot of subplots ... but it works better when we know why characters with limited knowledge tried to accomplish at a given time. There is no indication Tywin ever wanted or expected to attack the king himself. Overall, his intentions would have been either to arrest Ned, or simply force Robert (with help provided by Cersei and Jaime) to either force Ned to free Tyrion and/or to dismiss Ned as Hand, sending him back home and/or punish him for his transgressions.

8 hours ago, TsarGrey said:

Also, there's Jaime's army, which engages the riverlords both in canon and my proposal. That should cause some problems for the relief effort.

Sure, some problems, but in our scenario neither Jaime nor Tywin can afford to focus in the same manner on the Riverlords than they do in the book. They would have to move to KL, and we cannot expect Jaime to stay behind with his army if Cersei is in danger. That would not happen.

8 hours ago, TsarGrey said:

Of course. Do you think that's consistent with his character?

Tywin is never facing the threat that both his personal legacy - his three royal grandchildren - are destroyed as well as his entire house. Tywin was all about rebuilding House Lannister after his father nearly destroyed it. He wanted to create a lasting legacy and see it thrive when he died.

If he realized his actions could destroy them all it might give him pause. It would also give Kevan pause, as well as many of the Westermen in Tywin's army. Some of Tywin's lords are talking about making a peace with Robb after the Green Fork and Jaime's defeat. If they found out that Tywin Lannister wanted them to fight against what effectively counts as all of the Seven Kingdoms they are not exactly going to cheer him.

8 hours ago, TsarGrey said:

I'm not wedded to this idea of KL defecting, it came up just in this discussion. I really think it's possible though. My arguments on the subject have been inspired by the capture of Tarentum, and well, that was arranged beforehand. One could think ways to prearrange such betrayal when Tywin is yet to arrive... sending disguised men ahead, say, to bribe some defenders or overwhelm them themselves in a wrong place at the wrong time... but I see no real reason to continue this. There are ways for the city to fall. No need to get bogged down in the details.

Well, the point of this topic isn't 'How Tywin can install Joff as king even if Ned and Renly were to arrest Cersei and her children' but rather what might happen then. And chances are very low that such a scenario involves a successful Lannister attack on the capital or a Lannister victory in general.

8 hours ago, TsarGrey said:

He does not have to storm the city, no more than he needs to invade the riverlands or wage war for the sake of his offspring. He probably would lay siege to the city and try to take it, though, but he could do so in his own terms.

I think if Tywin were to march against KL he would be prepared to storm it because he would know his only chance would be to take it as quickly as possible.

8 hours ago, TsarGrey said:

Yeah, didn't go deep in this. There probably would be some, though. Something of said bannermen crossed my mind, as well as some pious nobles abhorring the northern heathens, which probably should exist somewhere. Also the commons now that I think of it. I dare say Ned and Renly should have their own PR problems after installing King Edric... though given how popular Renly appears to be, that probably wouldn't hinder them much.

Tywin's children stand accused of committing incest and cuckolding an anointed king. The Faith and the pious are not likely to stand with scum like that - especially since Jaime also happens to be the Kingslayer.

The Lannisters simply aren't popular people - not in KL, and not in Westeros at large. They are feared and respected, but they are not loved. And that is a problem for them.

8 hours ago, TsarGrey said:

Pycelle is not necessary for the betrayal. I added him for any practical value he might have, but really all that is necessary is that some insiders can be persuaded to help the westermen, and the city could fall. I rather meant the gold cloaks.

The Gold Cloaks would have to be in camp Edric in such a scenario, or else King Edric would never be installed or proclaimed. And once Ned and Renly realize the threat posed by Tywin they won't leave the defense of the city to chance.

What you are proposing is something like the City Watch betraying Aegon II for Rhaenyra due to the influence Daemon had over them. But that is completely out of the question for a City Watch in such a scenario. For that we would have to assume there was a powerful pro-Lannister faction in KL, and that just isn't there.

8 hours ago, TsarGrey said:

Tywin does not need to do this quietly. He can proclaim it loud and clear for everyone to hear that whoever assists him is richly rewarded. He can shoot the messages tied to arrows over the walls. If there is to be a siege, then everyone inside should know that. It's business as usual. And should he so do, willing betrayers could then contact him, not the other way around.

I'm utterly unconvinced by such a claim. I think that some poorer denizens of Flea Bottom, for example, might be completely willing to help some westermen over the wall in the dark of night, allowing the latter then surprise the defenders of some gate and open it. Such betrayers could then hope to hide their part in that while still enjoying their reward... or to start a new life in the Free Cities, for example.

Rabble from the streets could never seize and open the city gates. That wouldn't fly. And we would also have to assume that there would be very professional knights and men-at-arms in charge of the defense of the city. It wouldn't be conscripted Watchmen, etc.

The betrayals and uprisings during the Dance were motivated by fears that the dragons might incinerate the city ... and the Antler Men conspired because the Lannisters are loathed and they expected Stannis to win, anyway.

Chances that anyone would believe Tywin could win after a King Edric is installed - and Cersei's head might already be on spike above the castle gates - is just not very likely.

8 hours ago, Lord Lannister said:

So Ned comes out of Robert's chamber by himself and presents the Joffrey, Cersei and the Council with a note saying Stannis is heir instead of Ned being Regent? I can't see the end result being much different than what happened except if word gets out maybe it gives more credibility to Stannis' claim since the incest accusation didn't come from him. Either way Ned almost certainly loses his head.

No, the idea is that Ned tells Robert the truth when they talk alone, then they decide what they want to do, and call in Renly and Barristan to make plans. My scenario here is that they would agree to legitimize Edric Storm to make him king, with Ned running the show as regent.

The way to implement such things would be that Robert gives orders to act and take Cersei and the children into custody before he is dead. And that certainly would be doable, all they would need for that would be the Kingsguard (which they would have through Barristan) and a couple of other loyal men. They are all in Maegor's Holdfast at the time and Cersei and the children reside in there, too. They could be imprisoned very quietly, and then they could make preparations to disarm/move against the Lannister guards in the castle.

[Ivan Tsarevich]

On 3/27/2021 at 9:55 PM, frenin said:

I think the difference between all v all and all v the Lannisters is quite clear. Whereas the Lannisters were everyone's enemies, everyone else was not everyone else's allies.

The point being that Tywin can only hope to stand if the realm is divided, rather than united against him? I do not disagree with that.

On 3/27/2021 at 9:55 PM, frenin said:

It's not that it messes up your headcanon, it's simply too absurd to even entertain it. If Tywin didn't care about openly commiting high treason, he would have given Ned and Robert a real reason to  come out to get him by sending Gregor with his colors. He specifically doesn't do that to avoid becoming a traitor. Ned had resigned and was in a coma by then, so how in the could be intending to drawing him out??

And let's suppose that he captures Ned and then exchanges for Tyrion... Then what?? Both Robert and Ned would have been  loody livid and Ned would def get revenge. The plan simply doesn't make sense and it can be explained away by Harwin being on the road when he received the news on King's Landing and he messed up the timeline.

The simplest answer is likelier. He wanted the Riverlords to break the king's peace and thus having a free pass to invade them. He didn't need said free pass with Robert dead and Ned on a dungeon.

Well, it messing with my headcanon is one reason I like your idea.

Thanks for weighing in, though. It's good to know what I'm speaking about... what the original poster thought and how I myself approach the idea. Seems like I may have forgotten quite a bit of what you wrote.

On 3/27/2021 at 9:55 PM, frenin said:

Neither Tywin nor the Lannisters are liked enough for that narrative to have much hold, especially if the opposite narrative come from people far more respected (Ned) or beloved (Renly) holding the Throne.

That may be, though I think something like that could have some presence, especially among their own bannermen.

On 3/27/2021 at 9:55 PM, frenin said:

The odds are heavily against Tywin, as he has no one who he can rely on opening him the city and a few thousands of the well prepared knights can hold out long for reinforcements to come. But you'll never know.

I think I've not actually argued that Tywin would succeed in this attempt, and I hold no such a position. What I have argued, and maintain, is that he might try it, and should he so do, KL should be his prime target.

23 hours ago, Lord Varys said:

My point was that fighting in the streets would not allow Tywin to use the advantage of numbers he may have had. Streets are narrow. Tywin could sack KL because Aerys II opened the gates and invited the Westermen in. That is not our scenario here. There we would have one gate being opened to the enemy, something that wouldn't be kept secret for long.

I think that bottleneck formed by a narrow street does not necessarily negate the advantage granted by greater numbers.

• Consider the sheer weight of a mass of men. No thin line of defenders is likely to hold a deeper mass of attackers.
• Men tire. If the westermen hold a gate, they can feed more fresh men to the fray, even if they cannot all fight at the same time. Meanwhile the defenders have less manpower to rotate. This could happen especially during the lulls in fighting, which I believe were part of melee combat during antiquity.
• There are other directions to consider. If the defenders have to concentrate men to contain the attackers, they have less men to hold the walls.

Bottlenecks are useful. They do not guarantee victory. They can pushed through by force or bypassed by attacking elsewhere.

However, as I said to above to other poster, I think I have not actually argued that Tywin would succeed in this attempt. (I have argued, and maintain, that he could.) So yes, the defenders could manage to hold the westermen, and even push them back. Has happened in real history, I believe.

23 hours ago, Lord Varys said:

That doesn't fit with the timeline. He must have raised his troops long before that and that, in turn, means he was prepared for a war. But of course we should expect Tywin to change his strategy considerably after he learned that Robert was dead and Joffrey king now.

I believe Tywin indeed raised his forces before he knew of Robert's death. That's not a problem. And yes, he was prepared for war. The other poster above, frenin, provided an alternative reason why that would be - that he was be hoping the riverlords to retaliate. I probably had something different in mind... but I've frankly forgotten what.

But the actual invasion, and the attack on Beric, happened at the point of time where I think it's possible he had heard the news. Do note that said timeline is inaccurate: the precise dates are estimates. Which means that I think it's possible for a raven to be sent and rider to reach Tywin before Beric is attacked.

23 hours ago, Lord Varys said:

The fact that Renly and Stannis are great lords in their own right means they do have bannermen they can muster. They are not just landless princes or younger brothers like, say, Kevan Lannister is. And that, in turn, means that they have the standing and power base to motivate other lords to flock to their banners - something Stannis does poorly but Renly exceptionally well.

And in our scenario we have a pact between Ned and Renly, which basically means nearly the entire Realm could unite against the Lannisters between these two. Renly would bring the Stormlands and the Reach, Ned the North and the Riverlands and, with or without Littlefinger's help, the Vale. Even Dorne might join them considering it would have been a war against the Lannisters, meaning Doran might get his revenge, after all.

So we do account for the rest of realm. The point I made here was a comparison of the westerlands strength against that of the crownlands, the stormlands, and the royal fleet.

23 hours ago, Lord Varys said:

Warwick's presumption to arrest the king himself was the beginning of his downfall, was it not? This kind of thing is a very dangerous game, and Tywin was the man besieging Lord Denys back in the day. He knows how something like that is most likely to end.

I'm not familiar enough with the subject to answer to that question with confidence. But I think that even though he eventually had to flee the country, that did not necessarily have to happen, as he was apparently able to peacefully coexist with Edward for a while.

After he returned and reinstalled Henry VI, he ruled the country. Then Edward returned and Warwick lost... but had he not, I imagine he could've survived and prospered.

If you roll back the thread, there should be a post of mine where I say this is a desperate move and the stakes high. So yes, this is a dangerous game.

Denys Darklyn just imprisoned Aerys. He did not try to install a new ruler, like Warwick did and Tywin would do if he succeeded in what I've proposed. He did not command armies and he did not hold the country in the palm of his hand. There's a difference with the scale, and another with what these men aim to do. Tywin might end like Denys if he failed and then lost the war (latter of which is all but certain), that's true. But I think that reducing what I propose to a hostage situation like the Defiance does not grasp what's on table.

The respective situations are of course different. Warwick was popular. Tywin is not, as this discussion has brought to my attention (you point it out below, and that may not be the only instance). Which means that yes, Tywin might very well fail even if he succeeded, on account of having no allies, just like he was set to lose the War of the Five Kings. Thus the wisest course would be to not fight, naturally. Nor has that actually been my argument, I believe - it has been that if Tywin chose to fight, he should and could attack King's Landing, and that it's possible the city could fall.

23 hours ago, Lord Varys said:

The story functions without a lot of subplots ... but it works better when we know why characters with limited knowledge tried to accomplish at a given time. There is no indication Tywin ever wanted or expected to attack the king himself. Overall, his intentions would have been either to arrest Ned, or simply force Robert (with help provided by Cersei and Jaime) to either force Ned to free Tyrion and/or to dismiss Ned as Hand, sending him back home and/or punish him for his transgressions.

In case you think that I've suggested that Tywin wanted or expected to attack King Robert riding under the royal banner, you're mistaken. The idea is almost opposite: that Tywin would not have attacked the royal banner at all had he not known that Robert was dead and he would not have to answer for that action.

If what you speak of is that there's no support in the text that Tywin was planning to attack Robert elsewhere, agreed. I have not so claimed, I believe, though I may have come close.

23 hours ago, Lord Varys said:

Sure, some problems, but in our scenario neither Jaime nor Tywin can afford to focus in the same manner on the Riverlords than they do in the book. They would have to move to KL, and we cannot expect Jaime to stay behind with his army if Cersei is in danger. That would not happen.

23 hours ago, Lord Varys said:

Tywin is never facing the threat that both his personal legacy - his three royal grandchildren - are destroyed as well as his entire house. Tywin was all about rebuilding House Lannister after his father nearly destroyed it. He wanted to create a lasting legacy and see it thrive when he died.

If he realized his actions could destroy them all it might give him pause. It would also give Kevan pause, as well as many of the Westermen in Tywin's army. Some of Tywin's lords are talking about making a peace with Robb after the Green Fork and Jaime's defeat. If they found out that Tywin Lannister wanted them to fight against what effectively counts as all of the Seven Kingdoms they are not exactly going to cheer him.

These are good points.

23 hours ago, Lord Varys said:

Well, the point of this topic isn't 'How Tywin can install Joff as king even if Ned and Renly were to arrest Cersei and her children' but rather what might happen then. And chances are very low that such a scenario involves a successful Lannister attack on the capital or a Lannister victory in general.

I believe this discussion grew naturally from one of your own replies, the one about Ned not being able to prevent the Lannisters proclaiming Joffrey in the field. I then started to speculate upon that. If you feel I've hijacked your thread, my apologies.

For my own part, I find it hard to keep track of this discussion and am forgetting things. Furthermore, my thinking on the subject has evolved and my position slightly shifted. (So beware inconsistencies, there may be a couple.) I'm fine with not pursuing this conservation further.

I'm not advocating some inevitable Lannister victory. That is not the point of my arguments here.

23 hours ago, Lord Varys said:

I think if Tywin were to march against KL he would be prepared to storm it because he would know his only chance would be to take it as quickly as possible.

I agree that Tywin would be prepared to storm the walls. He could spend his resources as he did at the Fords. But I do not like this option, and would prefer something different than a general assault. Tywin's army is a priceless asset. Trading your army for a city, even for the capital and the king, is a bad trade. If you can take the city without too many losses, then of course... but I think we're agreed there's a strong contingent of defenders in the city.

Which is why I think the assault should be avoided if possible.

23 hours ago, Lord Varys said:

Tywin's children stand accused of committing incest and cuckolding an anointed king. The Faith and the pious are not likely to stand with scum like that - especially since Jaime also happens to be the Kingslayer.

As said to the other poster, that may be.

23 hours ago, Lord Varys said:

The Lannisters simply aren't popular people - not in KL, and not in Westeros at large. They are feared and respected, but they are not loved. And that is a problem for them.

Touché.

23 hours ago, Lord Varys said:

The Gold Cloaks would have to be in camp Edric in such a scenario, or else King Edric would never be installed or proclaimed. And once Ned and Renly realize the threat posed by Tywin they won't leave the defense of the city to chance.

What you are proposing is something like the City Watch betraying Aegon II for Rhaenyra due to the influence Daemon had over them. But that is completely out of the question for a City Watch in such a scenario. For that we would have to assume there was a powerful pro-Lannister faction in KL, and that just isn't there.

Are you under impression that I suggest the City Watch as an uniform body would turn their cloaks? I do not think that's necessary. Something like that may have crossed my mind - in Wednesday or thereabouts. That is not what I propose.

I think the City Watch is a corrupt organization including individual bad apples, men who would not need to inform more people than is truly required to act on their intentions. A small group of men. I do not trust there be any pro-Lannister faction, nor an influence like that of Daemon. Structures are unwanted, as are numbers: they make it easier to be discovered.

As these men are corrupt, their loyalty could perhaps be bought again, and they might be vulnerable to the rewards promised.

23 hours ago, Lord Varys said:

Rabble from the streets could never seize and open the city gates. That wouldn't fly. And we would also have to assume that there would be very professional knights and men-at-arms in charge of the defense of the city. It wouldn't be conscripted Watchmen, etc.

The betrayals and uprisings during the Dance were motivated by fears that the dragons might incinerate the city ... and the Antler Men conspired because the Lannisters are loathed and they expected Stannis to win, anyway.

Chances that anyone would believe Tywin could win after a King Edric is installed - and Cersei's head might already be on spike above the castle gates - is just not very likely.

That is not what I said. I suggested that the citizen/s could help the westermen over the walls. I was thinking a rope. The westermen, once there were enough of them, would open the gate, not the citizens. What these citizens would need to do is to find relatively unguarded section of the wall and subdue the the guards there.

[Lord Varys]

On 3/28/2021 at 10:46 PM, TsarGrey said:

I think that bottleneck formed by a narrow street does not necessarily negate the advantage granted by greater numbers.

• Consider the sheer weight of a mass of men. No thin line of defenders is likely to hold a deeper mass of attackers.
• Men tire. If the westermen hold a gate, they can feed more fresh men to the fray, even if they cannot all fight at the same time. Meanwhile the defenders have less manpower to rotate. This could happen especially during the lulls in fighting, which I believe were part of melee combat during antiquity.
• There are other directions to consider. If the defenders have to concentrate men to contain the attackers, they have less men to hold the walls.

Bottlenecks are useful. They do not guarantee victory. They can pushed through by force or bypassed by attacking elsewhere.

Yes, it certainly could work, but if we go back to the original scenario then Ned and Renly would have to behave pretty stupidly to allow that to happen ... and even if it did, there would be more than enough time to kill Cersei (if she hasn't already been tried and executed) and her children or get them out of the city. They would have their pick of secret ways to leave the Red Keep and catch a ship to Dragonstone or Gulltown or Storm's End or White Harbor.

That they and King Edric - if they brought him to KL already - would be able escape Tywin's clutches is clear. So, in the end, Tywin would have no chance of winning there.

The only way to win would be if he could pull of Rhaenyra-like coup - meaning get the entire City Watch and the other defenders of the city to betray Ned and Renly, thus ensuring that he could free Cersei and/or her children and subsequently properly install Joffrey on the Iron Throne. Without a living Joffrey (or Tommen or Myrcella) he would have nothing.

And if we go back to the original starting point of the Tywin debate - Tywin reacting to Ned's 'coup' by proclaiming Joff king in the field - sort of like the Blacks continued the war in the name of the imprisoned Aegon III - then we should also expect Ned and Renly learn of this ploy of Tywin's in due time, meaning there is a reaction to follow. Ned doesn't want to harm the children, but he would use them as hostages and demand Tywin's surrender. If he refused ... if he even presumed to proclaim them the rightful heirs to the throne, etc., then this certainly could have dire consequences for the children before Tywin can even attack the capital.

On 3/28/2021 at 10:46 PM, TsarGrey said:

However, as I said to above to other poster, I think I have not actually argued that Tywin would succeed in this attempt. (I have argued, and maintain, that he could.) So yes, the defenders could manage to hold the westermen, and even push them back. Has happened in real history, I believe.

Yes, I get that now, no harm done. The discussion sort went into this direction that I got the impression you were arguing in favor of super Tywin here, so I got a little bit carried away by that.

On 3/28/2021 at 10:46 PM, TsarGrey said:

I believe Tywin indeed raised his forces before he knew of Robert's death. That's not a problem. And yes, he was prepared for war. The other poster above, frenin, provided an alternative reason why that would be - that he was be hoping the riverlords to retaliate. I probably had something different in mind... but I've frankly forgotten what.

Tywin having Gregor invade incognito definitely means that he must have been prepared for a retaliation by the Riverlords ... and if done without the king's leave they would then technically break the King's Peace, not Tywin. He would just defend himself.

That would certainly have been part of thinking ... but we must not forget what this entire thing was about - getting Tyrion back. Ravaging the Riverlands wasn't exactly the direct way to this, and Tywin must have known that due to the marriage alliances of the Tullys he was risking to start a war with not just the Riverlords but the Starks and Arryns as well.

This couldn't have been in his best interest, so the idea that he wanted to provoke Ned to face him in the field and then force him to return Tyrion ... or better still, just make sufficient noise so that Robert eventually forces Ned to return Tyrion (as Robert actually commanded Ned to do when he left for his last hunt) rather than there being an escalating civil war.

Because if Tywin overdoes things there, if he gave the impression to defy the king's authority, then Robert still had more than enough authority to call his banners and crush the Lannisters. Not because he was still this popular guy ... but simply because the Lannisters were loathed by pretty much everybody - Renly, Stannis, Ned, the Tyrells and Riverlords, even the Dornishmen would gladly lent Robert a hand in that particular enterprise.

On 3/28/2021 at 10:46 PM, TsarGrey said:

But the actual invasion, and the attack on Beric, happened at the point of time where I think it's possible he had heard the news. Do note that said timeline is inaccurate: the precise dates are estimates. Which means that I think it's possible for a raven to be sent and rider to reach Tywin before Beric is attacked.

I actually don't think that Tywin was that close to Beric's troops there. They would have been expecting the folks from KL with orders to attack them ... and then bring Ned to Tywin as a prisoner. If Tywin had been close by, personally, he could have directly overseen the entire operation, he wouldn't have been forced to let Gregor handle the entire thing. Which he did.

The fact that men got away also implies that there weren't that many Westermen, i.e. only Gregor's original raiding contingent, not a decent portion of the army Tywin had raised/was raising.

On 3/28/2021 at 10:46 PM, TsarGrey said:

So we do account for the rest of realm. The point I made here was a comparison of the westerlands strength against that of the crownlands, the stormlands, and the royal fleet.

I'm sure Ned and Renly could have also gotten 20,000+ troops before Tywin showed up if they had called on support from the Crownlands, had called in Stannis' bannermen and the royal fleet (which were, quite conveniently, already assembled), and had called on at least a decent portion of Renly's Stormlanders. With Loras' help they likely could have also gotten levies from some of the Lords of the northern Reach - from the Tumbleton region, say.

On 3/28/2021 at 10:46 PM, TsarGrey said:

I'm not familiar enough with the subject to answer to that question with confidence. But I think that even though he eventually had to flee the country, that did not necessarily have to happen, as he was apparently able to peacefully coexist with Edward for a while.

After he returned and reinstalled Henry VI, he ruled the country. Then Edward returned and Warwick lost... but had he not, I imagine he could've survived and prospered.

Wasn't he forced into exile before, and then came back, allied with Margaret of Anjou and her son, and restored Henry VI again. Yes, Edward IV played nice for some time after he had been freed, but you cannot really recover from/apologize for taking the king prisoner ... nor is that something that (m)any monarchs would forgive.

On 3/28/2021 at 10:46 PM, TsarGrey said:

Denys Darklyn just imprisoned Aerys. He did not try to install a new ruler, like Warwick did and Tywin would do if he succeeded in what I've proposed. He did not command armies and he did not hold the country in the palm of his hand. There's a difference with the scale, and another with what these men aim to do. Tywin might end like Denys if he failed and then lost the war (latter of which is all but certain), that's true. But I think that reducing what I propose to a hostage situation like the Defiance does not grasp what's on table.

Oh, my argument there was more about Tywin (accidentally) captured Robert (and Ned) if he/they had ridden against Gregor instead of Beric.

On 3/28/2021 at 10:46 PM, TsarGrey said:

The respective situations are of course different. Warwick was popular. Tywin is not, as this discussion has brought to my attention (you point it out below, and that may not be the only instance). Which means that yes, Tywin might very well fail even if he succeeded, on account of having no allies, just like he was set to lose the War of the Five Kings. Thus the wisest course would be to not fight, naturally. Nor has that actually been my argument, I believe - it has been that if Tywin chose to fight, he should and could attack King's Landing, and that it's possible the city could fall.

Yes, on that I'd agree. One of Tywin's few chances of success in such a scenario would be to act very quickly and seize KL before Ned and Renly can consolidate power there.

If Cersei and/or the children were to escape, then he would have more options - he could properly proclaim a rival king, trying to draw some lords to his side, etc.

In fact, such a longterm game might have more chances of success than a sudden attack, because Tywin's wealth would only come in handy if he were using it to bribe lords, hire sellswords, etc.

On 3/28/2021 at 10:46 PM, TsarGrey said:

In case you think that I've suggested that Tywin wanted or expected to attack King Robert riding under the royal banner, you're mistaken. The idea is almost opposite: that Tywin would not have attacked the royal banner at all had he not known that Robert was dead and he would not have to answer for that action.

Ah, okay, then I was completely mistaken there.

On 3/28/2021 at 10:46 PM, TsarGrey said:

I believe this discussion grew naturally from one of your own replies, the one about Ned not being able to prevent the Lannisters proclaiming Joffrey in the field. I then started to speculate upon that. If you feel I've hijacked your thread, my apologies.

Oh, it's okay, I remember it now ;-).

On 3/28/2021 at 10:46 PM, TsarGrey said:

I agree that Tywin would be prepared to storm the walls. He could spend his resources as he did at the Fords. But I do not like this option, and would prefer something different than a general assault. Tywin's army is a priceless asset. Trading your army for a city, even for the capital and the king, is a bad trade. If you can take the city without too many losses, then of course... but I think we're agreed there's a strong contingent of defenders in the city.

If he were to attack the city, he would have to take it ... because the point would be to free Cersei and the children (if still alive) and, ideally, capture or kill Ned, Renly, Edric, and the other conspirator.

Overall, I think such an attack would either fail because he could not take the city and would be destroyed outside the walls (by the Northmen/Riverlords and the Reach men and Stormlanders attacking him from behind, answering Ned's and Renly's calls for help) or because he would fail to save/free Cersei and the children and/or arrest Ned and his allies. They would then regroup on Dragonstone or at Storm's End or some other place, and retake KL from Tywin, finishing him.

If could run away in time, he might be able to save his hide if he gets back to Casterly Rock and is willing to buy his life and titles back with a shitload of gold.

On 3/28/2021 at 10:46 PM, TsarGrey said:

Are you under impression that I suggest the City Watch as an uniform body would turn their cloaks? I do not think that's necessary. Something like that may have crossed my mind - in Wednesday or thereabouts. That is not what I propose.

I think the City Watch is a corrupt organization including individual bad apples, men who would not need to inform more people than is truly required to act on their intentions. A small group of men. I do not trust there be any pro-Lannister faction, nor an influence like that of Daemon. Structures are unwanted, as are numbers: they make it easier to be discovered.

As these men are corrupt, their loyalty could perhaps be bought again, and they might be vulnerable to the rewards promised.

That is not what I said. I suggested that the citizen/s could help the westermen over the walls. I was thinking a rope. The westermen, once there were enough of them, would open the gate, not the citizens. What these citizens would need to do is to find relatively unguarded section of the wall and subdue the the guards there.

I think all that would be based on the assumption that Ned and Renly would botch the job. The City Watch leadership under Slynt was corrupt, most of the men apparently not. They all served pretty well under Bywater, and the men killing him where just the folks they were forced to hire during the war, not the regular men.

Slynt was also not corrupt enough to be bought by anyone. Littlefinger bought him to support the queen and the king's chosen heir against the Hand. He may not even have known that Ned acted the way he did because he thought Cersei's children were not Robert's.

In our scenario he would have known who the new power was, and he would have fallen in line. The chances that he would have viewed Tywin as a powerful player he would like to work with is not very likely.

And in a siege setting we should assume that the city walls and the gates are protected by trustworthy men 24/7 ... and that Varys' agents will be as effective as they were in ACoK when they thwarted the plot of the Antler Men.

[James West]

On 3/23/2021 at 8:14 PM, Lord Varys said:

I've been thinking about that question recently, and noticed something remarkably in Robert's deathbed dialogue.

Even before his death, Robert is resentful of the fact that he had become king - he goes on record saying that Ned or Jon would have been better suited for the job. He clearly isn't completely honest there, but he knows and understands that he sucks as king, doesn't have the temperament or patience for the business and government and is prone to follow his impulses rather than think something through. That's probably a realization he had as he grew fat and lazy - back during the Rebellion he most likely did want to be king, or else he could have refused to become a pretender to the throne.

But on his deathbed Robert finally does what he thinks are the right choices - he calls off the assassination of the Targaryens and he names Ned Lord Regent and Protector of the Realm.

Robert's phrasing when doing that is rather curious:

The reason why Robert chooses Ned as regent for his minor son is that he, rightfully, thinks Ned is very well suited for the job of ruling. In a very real sense he hands over the kingdom to Ned, not Joffrey.

And that is significant. He wants Ned to rule, because he views Ned as the (only) man with the right qualities to do so.

If we imagine for a moment that Ned did tell Robert about the twincest then Robert would have to make new arrangements. He wanted to hand over the government to Ned, but, as Ned himself muses, Stannis doesn't need a regent, he would rule in his own right.

I'm not very positive that Robert ever deluded himself into believing Stannis would be a great king. The man wanted to make things right on his deathbed, not wrong. Stannis on the throne would mean war, not just with the Lannisters (which would be necessary, after the revelation of the twincest, most likely) but also the Dothraki and the Targaryens because he, like Robert, wouldn't sit idly by while Daenerys gave birth to little dragons. Not to mention Stannis general personality.

And of Renly Robert is also very dismissive when he dictates his last will:

This indicates he would also not be very keen to pass over Stannis and install Renly as his successor, either, because Renly, too, would rule in his own right and Ned couldn't serve as his regent.

My idea is that Robert's first idea when considering his succession in light of the new knowledge - after he got over the wrath and shame and anger that would have come with the revelation of the twincest - would be to hand the Iron Throne to Ned.

In light of the revelation Ned would look even more like the only and best friend, most loyal servant, true brother, etc. Robert ever had - and he earlier did reveal that succession laws and dynastic concerns didn't really matter much to him when complaining about the fact that he had to be king.

Thus I think it actually could make sense to assume that rather than turning to either Stannis or Renly Robert would want to make Ned king in his stead.

Ned would most definitely not want that nor agree to that, so they would have to something else - and there, I think, Robert would then agree to legitimize Edric Storm on his deathbed and name his his successor with Ned serving as Lord Regent and Protector of the Realm to Edric as Robert originally had wanted Ned to serve Joffrey. If Ned were to reject this idea out of hand, Robert would then likely go with either Stannis or Renly, but I'm pretty sure his gut feeling (pun intended) would be that Ned take the reins of the government.

Also, if we assume that Ned tells Robert - and Robert remains in 'deathbed amends mode' - then both would want that the children not be harmed even if neither can succeed to the throne. And that's not something they could guarantee if Stannis or Renly were taking the throne to rule in their own right. Both would most likely gladly murder Cersei's children to ensure they could never be used as pawns to depose them. But Ned would protect Cersei's children, and Robert would know that.

Is that a scenario that would make sense to you guys? Or do you think Robert would definitely want Stannis or Renly to succeed him?

Desperate men make compromises.  He would choose Stannis. 

[frenin]

5 hours ago, Lord Varys said:

That would certainly have been part of thinking ... but we must not forget what this entire thing was about - getting Tyrion back. Ravaging the Riverlands wasn't exactly the direct way to this, and Tywin must have known that due to the marriage alliances of the Tullys he was risking to start a war with not just the Riverlords but the Starks and Arryns as well.

Was that the reason of the invasion??  It certainly doesn't seem so. Tywin invades anyway without having any reassurances of Tyrion coming back safe and Tywin himself says that he did so to preserve the name of his House. If Tywin actually wanted Tyrion back the only he had to do was sending a raven to Robert, he would have gladly obliged.

By forcing the Riverlords into breaking the King's Peace he actually neutralizes both the Starks and the Arryns, they can't (shouldn't) help traitors. But kidnapping Ned is actually treason and there's no way in hell he doesn't receive heat for that and the Arryns and Tullys would have then surely help Ned to destroy him (plus whatever House that wanted a piece of him, cough Renly, cough Renly). Seems like a very dumb idea.