Robert's successor if Ned told him about the incest?

[Lord Varys]

8 hours ago, James West said:

Desperate men make compromises.  He would choose Stannis. 

Again, Stannis wasn't there ... and if Edric was legitimized he would have a much better claim than Stannis. Stannis would mean Robert couldn't hand the kingdom to Ned ... which is what he wanted to do.

8 hours ago, frenin said:

Was that the reason of the invasion??  It certainly doesn't seem so. Tywin invades anyway without having any reassurances of Tyrion coming back safe and Tywin himself says that he did so to preserve the name of his House. If Tywin actually wanted Tyrion back the only he had to do was sending a raven to Robert, he would have gladly obliged.

Of course it was the reason for the invasion, since it coincided with Tywin being informed about Tyrion's abduction ... and Jaime, being furious about said abduction, joining Tywin in the West.

One should not forget Jaime's influence over his father in this matter. He was the one loving Tyrion, once he was with Tywin he could have forced the old man to do something big, since he, Jaime, would do something in any case, and if Tywin wouldn't help him whatever he did could fail. Tywin's own army mobilizes in the southern region of the West/Riverlands border - Jaime assembles his men at the Golden Tooth and later takes on Riverrun directly. This strikes as something Jaime insisted they do after he arrived in the West. Tywin's original false flag operation thingy was more subtle and more cautious.

We don't know if Tywin sent any ravens to Robert. Pycelle would have shown letters sent to the king in his absence to Cersei, not Ned, one assumes. Robert did leave for his hunt directly after the news about the abduction had reached court.

You also see in the behavior of Jaime that when aristocratic honor is concerned people do not necessarily go through the king. Jaime also could have told Robert to avenge Tyrion on Ned ... but he took matters in his own hands, despite the fact that he was a knight of the Kingsguard. Catelyn did the same earlier when she arrested Tyrion, etc.

8 hours ago, frenin said:

By forcing the Riverlords into breaking the King's Peace he actually neutralizes both the Starks and the Arryns, they can't (shouldn't) help traitors. But kidnapping Ned is actually treason and there's no way in hell he doesn't receive heat for that and the Arryns and Tullys would have then surely help Ned to destroy him (plus whatever House that wanted a piece of him, cough Renly, cough Renly). Seems like a very dumb idea.

That doesn't really fly because Tywin's false flag operation wouldn't really work. It could be used to slow things down at court a little bit, perhaps help prevent Robert from taking sides at first, etc. But as we see, Ned correctly assumes Gregor's men act under Tywin's orders, so he would definitely mobilize his own men eventually to help the Riverlords defend against the Lannister threat. And once the fighting started in earnest, it would be irrelevant who began it ... the course of the war would decide who was the guilty party, the losing side would be punished after the fighting was over, not necessarily the side who started the fighting.

Arresting Ned would be as much treason as arresting Tyrion was ... which was actually the first break of the King's Peace. The Tullys attacking the Lannisters could easily be construed by them as them defending the honor of Catelyn Tully Stark.

If we had a scenario where the Riverlords wouldn't have sent envoys to court and Ned had never given his judgment, then an escalation of the war by the Riverlords raiding the Westerlands wouldn't have changed the fact that Ned was still the Hand ... the man Robert listened to. The chance that Robert would have listened to Tywin's interpretation of things as presented by Cersei and Pycelle is not exactly all that high. This means Tywin would face the strong possibility that Ned and Robert would raise another army at KL - say, of Stormlanders and Reach men assembled by Renly and Loras - to end the war between the Riverlords and the Westermen. And that could go very badly for him.

In light of all that, Tywin's assessment of Ned being a man who would personally bring Gregor Clegane to justice makes sense. It was accurate, after all. Ned wanted to do this personally, he just couldn't because of his leg.

In the end, there is no guarantee that Robert would side with his wife's family over this ... nor that he could afford to ally with Tywin to punish a power bloc consisting of the North, the Riverlands, and the Vale - the three regions which put him on the Iron Throne. It would completely undermine his own power base, especially in light of the Dothraki threat on the horizon. He needed his friends around him, he couldn't afford to antagonize all the people who put him on his throne.

If just a few things had gone differently - say, Lysa executes Tyrion in the Vale (because he loses his trial-by-combat or he is never granted one) or Tyrion and Bronn die on the High Road as Lysa intended - then chances are not that bad that the Vale will have to commit to the anti-Lannister coalition, because the Lannisters would never forget or forgive that transgression.

Tywin was playing a very dangerous game by invading the Riverlands simply because of the marriage alliances of the Tullys.

And that is why we should assume that, originally, he just intended to lure Ned into a trap so that he had the leverage to force Tyrion's release ... and also that the Starks be punished for the entire abduction thing. He would need satisfaction in addition to the release of his son. But an escalating war couldn't have been in his interests while Robert was still around. Once he was dead, he could do as he pleased.

And that's why I think we should go with the idea that Tywin only gave his okay for a full-out invasion after he learned that Robert Baratheon was dead.

[frenin]

2 hours ago, Lord Varys said:

Of course it was the reason for the invasion, since it coincided with Tywin being informed about Tyrion's abduction ... and Jaime, being furious about said abduction, joining Tywin in the West.

The insult to Lannister honor was surely the reason for the invasion, specifically bringing back Tyrion?? Not so sure.

 

2 hours ago, Lord Varys said:

One should not forget Jaime's influence over his father in this matter. He was the one loving Tyrion, once he was with Tywin he could have forced the old man to do something big, since he, Jaime, would do something in any case, and if Tywin wouldn't help him whatever he did could fail.

I do see Tywin risking his head for the golden boy, I don't see him doing it for Tyrion even to Jaime's chagrin.

Tywin can simply kept Jaime on house arrest while he dealt with the situation however he saw fit.

Unless Jaime had a considerable sway over Tywin's household and bannermen, Jaime is a non factor.

 

2 hours ago, Lord Varys said:

Tywin's own army mobilizes in the southern region of the West/Riverlands border - Jaime assembles his men at the Golden Tooth and later takes on Riverrun directly. This strikes as something Jaime insisted they do after he arrived in the West. Tywin's original false flag operation thingy was more subtle and more cautious.

Tywin drops caution and subtlety as soon as Cersei takes King's Landing.  He doesn't need it anymore. 

When Robert and Ned still held control over the capital all Tywin did was send ravens trying to get Gregor's sentence overruled.

 

 

2 hours ago, Lord Varys said:

You also see in the behavior of Jaime that when aristocratic honor is concerned people do not necessarily go through the king. Jaime also could have told Robert to avenge Tyrion on Ned ... but he took matters in his own hands, despite the fact that he was a knight of the Kingsguard. Catelyn did the same earlier when she arrested Tyrion, etc.

They do if they do not want to lose their heads. Or they do in a manner that the King would never hear of it a la Rohanne Webber. You're acting as if the King's Peace was not enacted to prevent that type of behaviour.

There's a reason why Hoster Tully sent his bannermen to ask the Throne's leave to invade the Westerlands instead of simply retaliate even when he wanted to do so. He saw the writing in the wall.

Jaime's as rash as he was stupid. His behaviour isn't by  any means a standard but the standard of a man so used to get his way he has forgotten that his actions has consequences.

 

 

 

2 hours ago, Lord Varys said:

That doesn't really fly because Tywin's false flag operation wouldn't really work. It could be used to slow things down at court a little bit, perhaps help prevent Robert from taking sides at first, etc. But as we see, Ned correctly assumes Gregor's men act under Tywin's orders, so he would definitely mobilize his own men eventually to help the Riverlords defend against the Lannister threat. And once the fighting started in earnest, it would be irrelevant who began it ... the course of the war would decide who was the guilty party, the losing side would be punished after the fighting was over, not necessarily the side who started the fighting.

What Ned correctly assumes and what Ned can prove are two different things. There's a reason the sentence is against Gregor not his master.

Ned himself sees the danger of letting Robert pick a side between the Lannisters and the Tullys while the former are hiding behind the cloak of plausible deniability.

And what Robert and the rest of the Realm do while they are fighting??

 

2 hours ago, Lord Varys said:

Arresting Ned would be as much treason as arresting Tyrion was ... which was actually the first break of the King's Peace. The Tullys attacking the Lannisters could easily be construed by them as them defending the honor of Catelyn Tully Stark.

Arresting Tyrion is not treason, arresting the Hand of the King is treason.

Arresting a noble may be illegal, stupid and dangerous but it's certainly not treason, not anyone has ever called the act treason. King's Peace is quite literally going to war without the monarch's leave.

They never make that connection tho. Which would be quite silly since defending the honor of someone by commiting treason is quite absurd, especially when you're unlikely to get away with it.

 

 

2 hours ago, Lord Varys said:

If we had a scenario where the Riverlords wouldn't have sent envoys to court and Ned had never given his judgment, then an escalation of the war by the Riverlords raiding the Westerlands wouldn't have changed the fact that Ned was still the Hand ... the man Robert listened to. The chance that Robert would have listened to Tywin's interpretation of things as presented by Cersei and Pycelle is not exactly all that high. This means Tywin would face the strong possibility that Ned and Robert would raise another army at KL - say, of Stormlanders and Reach men assembled by Renly and Loras - to end the war between the Riverlords and the Westermen. And that could go very badly for him.

Maybe, maybe not.

Ned himself acknowledges the lack of proof against him and that he can pull It off if plausible deniability is on his side.

 

2 hours ago, Lord Varys said:

In light of all that, Tywin's assessment of Ned being a man who would personally bring Gregor Clegane to justice makes sense. It was accurate, after all. Ned wanted to do this personally, he just couldn't because of his leg.

Tywin never makes that assestment, Harwin does and he forgets to address the elephant in the room of Ned having a big argument with Robert and then resigning and then being injured and being in a coma for a week.

The only reason Ned was made Hand again was because of that, else by the time the news reached King's Landing he would be on his way to White Harbour.

Tywin should also know that Robert wouldn't be on King's Landing,  leaving the decision of what to do with Gregor to Ned. Because had Robert been there, he would be the one ruling over the case and Tywin certainly cannot tell he'd make the same decision Ned makes based on so little evidence.

Either Tywin is clairvoyant or he's clairly basing  his plans on sheer dumb luck. 

 

 

3 hours ago, Lord Varys said:

And that is why we should assume that, originally, he just intended to lure Ned into a trap so that he had the leverage to force Tyrion's release ... and also that the Starks be punished for the entire abduction thing. He would need satisfaction in addition to the release of his son. But an escalating war couldn't have been in his interests while Robert was still around. Once he was dead, he could do as he pleased.

As i said. If Robert believes the Tullys have commited treason, the Starks have two option. Either commit treason themselves or stand aside.

Him leading Ned into a trap certainly guarantees he has to go to war war, either with Robert, with the Starks or with both.

If Tywin actually cared for Tyrion, he would have simply asked Robert to force the release of his son. If Tywin actually wanted to effectively neutralize the Starks, he would have taken Tyrion's route and let the Starks embarass themselves in front of the King and the whole Realm.

Tywin wanted to make an example out of the Tullys, which is why he does what he does... after Robert is dead. But he is not stupid, which is why while he was around, he only sends false flag attacks and send ravens.

[Ivan Tsarevich]

On 3/30/2021 at 2:12 AM, Lord Varys said:

I actually don't think that Tywin was that close to Beric's troops there. They would have been expecting the folks from KL with orders to attack them ... and then bring Ned to Tywin as a prisoner. If Tywin had been close by, personally, he could have directly overseen the entire operation, he wouldn't have been forced to let Gregor handle the entire thing. Which he did.

The fact that men got away also implies that there weren't that many Westermen, i.e. only Gregor's original raiding contingent, not a decent portion of the army Tywin had raised/was raising.

Well, that would fit with my headcanon.

On 3/30/2021 at 2:12 AM, Lord Varys said:

I'm sure Ned and Renly could have also gotten 20,000+ troops before Tywin showed up if they had called on support from the Crownlands, had called in Stannis' bannermen and the royal fleet (which were, quite conveniently, already assembled), and had called on at least a decent portion of Renly's Stormlanders. With Loras' help they likely could have also gotten levies from some of the Lords of the northern Reach - from the Tumbleton region, say.

I don't think we necessarily should count the rowers of the fleet... in case you counted them.

On 3/30/2021 at 2:12 AM, Lord Varys said:

Wasn't he forced into exile before, and then came back, allied with Margaret of Anjou and her son, and restored Henry VI again. Yes, Edward IV played nice for some time after he had been freed, but you cannot really recover from/apologize for taking the king prisoner ... nor is that something that (m)any monarchs would forgive.

Yeah. I believe I said so ;-).

As said, I'm not familiar with the subject. Iirc, Conn Iggulden in the afterword of one of his historical fiction books speaks something of Edward actually holding his oath, and in the book he moves against Warwick only after there is a different nominal reason. I don't know how true that is (I don't even know whether such an oath/pardon took place, though it would make sense), but if so, I guess it would depend on the personality of the king and the strength which the nobleman in question would be able to wield.

- - -

So let's see again. Assuming that both Renly and Stannis come around...

1. Cersei and her children are unlikely to escape. She was not moving anywhere. Sandor and the red cloaks might be able to mount some resistance, but that's it.
2. If Pycelle is unable to send a raven to Tywin, the Lannisters are blind. Ned, Renly and the rest would control the flow of information.
3. Both Littlefinger and Ned refer to the Lannister threat in AGoT.¹ Thus it's logical to assume that they would prepare for it, and even if Tywin were to march on King's Landing, there's no way he could surprise the defenders, no matter how fast he may be able to move. Meanwhile Ned and Renly would try to gather support.
4. If we assume that Littlefinger and Varys do their best to support Ned, the chances for infiltration, bribery and betrayal are minuscule even if Tywin were to threaten the city. (Yeah, I'm dropping that and moving on.)
5. The siege scenario is a death trap. Even if the Lannisters were able to take the city by storm, which is not as easily done as it's said, they would suffer losses and would be vulnerable to relieving forces. Ned and the rest would be able to escape, taking Cersei and her children with them, as well as Edric if he was already brought to the city. In such a situation, Stannis and the royal fleet would be highly relevant. On the Lannister side, the capital has no value by itself. It's exposed, too far away from their base of power, and full of people who have to be controlled and fed and hate them. The logical course would be to cut their losses there and return to the westerlands.
6. Given that such an attack would threaten Loras and the Redwyne twins as well, the Reach would be likely to support the prospective king Edric, especially if they can betroth Margaery to him to boot. The riverlands have already been raided and are allied to Ned, and the stormlords are loyal enough to Renly. If Tywin does not attack the capital, the treat remains same, even if some of his enemies may be less outraged. Everybody from the ironborn to the Dornishmen more or less hates the Lannisters or at least supports their enemies.
7. If Tywin makes it back to the westerlands or never even leaves, he would likely resort to scorched earth tactics in the face of incoming attack.² The Golden Tooth and Deep Den would be besieged, while the coast would be open to the ironborn and the southern border to the invaders coming from the Reach. Sooner or later Casterly Rock itself would be under siege, which might take years. Dreadfort held out for two, while Storm's End might've fallen in less than one without Davos.
8. If the war against the Lannisters were to happen, the realm would be more or less united against the common foe, which in turn would strengthen the beginning rule of King Edric, the First of his Name. Ned would be likely to grant some small measure of justice to the Dornishmen, in the name of the king, which might perhaps soothe the populace there a bit, even if the Martells were to continue to nurse their grievances. The Wardenship of the East would be returned to the House Arryn.
9. As Barristan is never dismissed, Daenerys is not saved by the manticore, and her campaign to liberate the slaves never starts. Littlefinger and Varys, if they serve Ned well, might be able to keep their seats in the small council, at least for a time. Same applies to Slynt. The latter might be removed quickly, though, if Stannis introduces Ned the proof which Jon Arryn laid before the council.
10. Ned would try to run a sensible government and prepare for winter, which would mean that the realm might be better poised to face the treat posed by the Others. He would be unlikely to pay no heed to requests of help from the Night's Watch. Eventually he might take interest in finances, given his shock of the Crown's debt, which would mean Littlefinger might need to take some care.

Ref. 1, AGoT Eddard XIII.

"I shall do my best to forget your . . . wisdom," Ned said with distaste. "I called you here to ask for the help you promised Catelyn. This is a perilous hour for all of us. Robert has named me Protector, true enough, but in the eyes of the world, Joffrey is still his son and heir. The queen has a dozen knights and a hundred men-at-arms who will do whatever she commands . . . enough to overwhelm what remains of my own household guard. And for all I know, her brother Jaime may be riding for King's Landing even as we speak, with a Lannister host at his back."

Ref. 2, ADwD Tyrion XI.

The fact that there were any good wells at all within a day's march of the city only went to prove that Daenerys Targaryen was still an innocent where siegecraft was concerned. She should have poisoned every well. Then all the Yunkishmen would be drinking from the river. See how long their siege lasts then. That was what his lord father would have done, Tyrion did not doubt.

This still leaves some points of interest.

1. What would happen to the westerlands, should there be a war? Would Ned allow Casterly Rock, the Wardenship of the West and the rest remain with the Lannisters, if not necessarily with Tywin's line? Would Tywin be able to negotiate a some sort of truce, perhaps paying war reparations and allowing Jaime and/or himself to take the black? What would happen to Cersei and her children? Would Tyrion, crossing the Mountains of the Moon with the clansmen, survive somehow and perhaps even inherit the Rock, as he won his trial by combat?
2. What would Varys and Illyrio do? Would Aegon's invasion never happen? Would Varys try to destabilize Ned's government or sabotage the war effort against the Lannisters?
3. With Daenerys dead, what would happen to the dragons? Would Jorah offer them to the Crown in return for a pardon?
4. What would happen to Mance Rayder and the wildlings? Would any be allowed to settle south of the Wall? Would they be listened to, given the wight attack in Castle Black? Was the hand Alliser Thorne brought to KL still moving, and would Ned see it?

[The Young Maester]

1 hour ago, TsarGrey said:

What would happen to the westerlands, should there be a war? Would Ned allow Casterly Rock, the Wardenship of the West and the rest remain with the Lannisters, if not necessarily with Tywin's line? Would Tywin be able to negotiate a some sort of truce, perhaps paying war reparations and allowing Jaime and/or himself to take the black? What would happen to Cersei and her children? Would Tyrion, crossing the Mountains of the Moon with the clansmen, survive somehow and perhaps even inherit the Rock, as he won his trial by combat?

My guess is that in order to revoke casterly rock or lordship over the Westerlands. The rock would have to be sieged/assaulted. I’d guess that a son of kevan or maybe kevan himself will be allowed to keep their position as warden of the west.

In regards to Tywin making a truce, It depends where he is and how his situation is looking. If he still invades the riverlands, than he is quite fucked since he would be far from home and exposed to armies from the north, east, and south.

Tbh I really dont know what would happen to Tyrion.

1 hour ago, TsarGrey said:

What would Varys and Illyrio do? Would Aegon's invasion never happen? Would Varys try to destabilize Ned's government or sabotage the war effort against the Lannisters?

Maybe postpone the invasion for when Westeros is weak. I think the chances of Varys successfully sabotaging the war against the lannisters are rather unlikely since the odds are so high against them. Tywin would need to spawn some sort of dragon to turn it around.

1 hour ago, TsarGrey said:

With Daenerys dead, what would happen to the dragons? Would Jorah offer them to the Crown in return for a pardon?

Possibly and if that fails he’ll sell em for some money. 

1 hour ago, TsarGrey said:

What would happen to Mance Rayder and the wildlings? Would any be allowed to settle south of the Wall? Would they be listened to, given the wight attack in Castle Black? Was the hand Alliser Thorne brought to KL still moving, and would Ned see it?

Mances army would probably be obliterated. Mainly because the whole north will be able to respond to this threat. Some would survive, and if Jon is still elected, than it is likely he would settle them with permission from the lord regent.

Despite what other people think, I actually think Ned would’ve made a good regent. He isnt as stupid as some other people make him seem, nor naive.

[Lee-Sensei]

On 3/23/2021 at 6:14 PM, Lord Varys said:

I've been thinking about that question recently, and noticed something remarkably in Robert's deathbed dialogue.

Even before his death, Robert is resentful of the fact that he had become king - he goes on record saying that Ned or Jon would have been better suited for the job. He clearly isn't completely honest there, but he knows and understands that he sucks as king, doesn't have the temperament or patience for the business and government and is prone to follow his impulses rather than think something through. That's probably a realization he had as he grew fat and lazy - back during the Rebellion he most likely did want to be king, or else he could have refused to become a pretender to the throne.

But on his deathbed Robert finally does what he thinks are the right choices - he calls off the assassination of the Targaryens and he names Ned Lord Regent and Protector of the Realm.

Robert's phrasing when doing that is rather curious:

The reason why Robert chooses Ned as regent for his minor son is that he, rightfully, thinks Ned is very well suited for the job of ruling. In a very real sense he hands over the kingdom to Ned, not Joffrey.

And that is significant. He wants Ned to rule, because he views Ned as the (only) man with the right qualities to do so.

If we imagine for a moment that Ned did tell Robert about the twincest then Robert would have to make new arrangements. He wanted to hand over the government to Ned, but, as Ned himself muses, Stannis doesn't need a regent, he would rule in his own right.

I'm not very positive that Robert ever deluded himself into believing Stannis would be a great king. The man wanted to make things right on his deathbed, not wrong. Stannis on the throne would mean war, not just with the Lannisters (which would be necessary, after the revelation of the twincest, most likely) but also the Dothraki and the Targaryens because he, like Robert, wouldn't sit idly by while Daenerys gave birth to little dragons. Not to mention Stannis general personality.

And of Renly Robert is also very dismissive when he dictates his last will:

This indicates he would also not be very keen to pass over Stannis and install Renly as his successor, either, because Renly, too, would rule in his own right and Ned couldn't serve as his regent.

My idea is that Robert's first idea when considering his succession in light of the new knowledge - after he got over the wrath and shame and anger that would have come with the revelation of the twincest - would be to hand the Iron Throne to Ned.

In light of the revelation Ned would look even more like the only and best friend, most loyal servant, true brother, etc. Robert ever had - and he earlier did reveal that succession laws and dynastic concerns didn't really matter much to him when complaining about the fact that he had to be king.

Thus I think it actually could make sense to assume that rather than turning to either Stannis or Renly Robert would want to make Ned king in his stead.

Ned would most definitely not want that nor agree to that, so they would have to something else - and there, I think, Robert would then agree to legitimize Edric Storm on his deathbed and name his his successor with Ned serving as Lord Regent and Protector of the Realm to Edric as Robert originally had wanted Ned to serve Joffrey. If Ned were to reject this idea out of hand, Robert would then likely go with either Stannis or Renly, but I'm pretty sure his gut feeling (pun intended) would be that Ned take the reins of the government.

Also, if we assume that Ned tells Robert - and Robert remains in 'deathbed amends mode' - then both would want that the children not be harmed even if neither can succeed to the throne. And that's not something they could guarantee if Stannis or Renly were taking the throne to rule in their own right. Both would most likely gladly murder Cersei's children to ensure they could never be used as pawns to depose them. But Ned would protect Cersei's children, and Robert would know that.

Is that a scenario that would make sense to you guys? Or do you think Robert would definitely want Stannis or Renly to succeed him?

He’d probably legitimize Edric and make Ned his regent.

[Ivan Tsarevich]

On 4/1/2021 at 7:26 PM, The Young Maester said:

My guess is that in order to revoke casterly rock or lordship over the Westerlands. The rock would have to be sieged/assaulted. I’d guess that a son of kevan or maybe kevan himself will be allowed to keep their position as warden of the west.

In regards to Tywin making a truce, It depends where he is and how his situation is looking. If he still invades the riverlands, than he is quite fucked since he would be far from home and exposed to armies from the north, east, and south.

If the siege of the Rock drags on too long, then the besiegers might end up conducting it in the coming winter, which threatens to become the Long Night 2.0. So if that were to happen, whoever holds the Rock might actually be able to negotiate from a good position.

I don't think Tywin marches anywhere near the crossroads in this scenario. He has no business there. Perhaps he might move to link up with Jaime, if the latter is still in the riverlands. If Jaime attacks the riverlords like in the book, they might be in disarray and Tywin might avoid the forces coming from the south.

On 4/1/2021 at 7:26 PM, The Young Maester said:

Tbh I really dont know what would happen to Tyrion.

One possibility is that he and the clansmen would be attacked and/or imprisoned by the first riverlander force they come across.

On 4/1/2021 at 7:26 PM, The Young Maester said:

Maybe postpone the invasion for when Westeros is weak. I think the chances of Varys successfully sabotaging the war against the lannisters are rather unlikely since the odds are so high against them. Tywin would need to spawn some sort of dragon to turn it around.

Thing is, if Ned can do his thing, the realm might grow stronger than it has been since the aftermath of the First Blackfyre Rebellion. From Varys' viewpoint, he's worse than Kevan could ever hope to be.

When Arya overhears him and Illyrio in AGoT, they think it's too soon, apparently because Drogo is taking his time. Possible ways to prolong the war could be to deliver Cersei and her children to Tywin, murder Ned and Robert's legitimized heirs, frame Renly of that, scheme with Doran...

On 4/1/2021 at 7:26 PM, The Young Maester said:

Possibly and if that fails he’ll sell em for some money. 

Jorah tells Dany that a living dragon is beyond price, so he realizes their unique value. ACoK, Daenerys I.

"Hatchlings," Ser Jorah said. "One swipe from an arakh would put an end to them, though Pono is more like to seize them for himself. Your dragon eggs were more precious than rubies. A living dragon is beyond price. In all the world, there are only three. Every man who sees them will want them, my queen."

The Qartheen seem to actually respect Daenerys' right of ownership regarding the dragons, but if she is dead, they are up for grabs. Jorah is one possible taker, and the Dothraki of Dany's khalasar. Or the Qartheen might claim them for themselves, perhaps.

And then there are Varys and Illyrio. Illyrio sends Groleo and Belwas to fetch Dany and the dragons, so they might fall into their hands, and they might then try to use them in their plot to crown Aegon.

On 4/1/2021 at 7:26 PM, The Young Maester said:

Mances army would probably be obliterated. Mainly because the whole north will be able to respond to this threat. Some would survive, and if Jon is still elected, than it is likely he would settle them with permission from the lord regent.

If there's a war against the Lannisters, some of the northern strength might be in the south. Still, if the northmen send just a force comparable to the one which Rodrik led to retake Winterfell, the Wall would probably hold. No need for Stannis to save day.

Unless the horn Mance showed is a real deal, of course. But if not, it's unlikely that Mance could bluff his way through if Rodrik is in Castle Black. He has not seen the dead walk. If some of the NW men were able to shake him, he might perhaps ask time to communicate with Ned. Robb strikes me even less likely to buy that, if he's there instead, though he might be more amenable to listen Jon's account of what the Halfhand thought. But since Mance didn't want to kneel, and might suspect any delay to be a plot, fighting would probably continue.

If the wildlings spread out, some might be able to cross the Wall, so if the main northern strength is in the south, parts of the North could be somewhat lawless for a time when the northmen hunt down the wildling bands.

On 4/1/2021 at 7:26 PM, The Young Maester said:

Despite what other people think, I actually think Ned would’ve made a good regent. He isnt as stupid as some other people make him seem, nor naive.

Seems like he could do a better job than practically anyone else, if properly supported.

[James West]

On 3/30/2021 at 10:08 AM, Lord Varys said:

Again, Stannis wasn't there ... and if Edric was legitimized he would have a much better claim than Stannis. Stannis would mean Robert couldn't hand the kingdom to Ned ... which is what he wanted to do.

Robert will be reluctant to do this.  He is a traditionalists and it is unseemly to legitimize a bastard for the purposes of handing them a kingdom.  

[Lee-Sensei]

14 hours ago, James West said:

Robert will be reluctant to do this.  He is a traditionalists and it is unseemly to legitimize a bastard for the purposes of handing them a kingdom.  

Press X to doubt. Stannis is his brother, but he’d want to pass on his property to his son.

[nyser1]

Even on his deathbed, I find it hard to believe that Robeet would have looked past Ned protecting a son of Rhaegar, if he told him. In fact, he might even yell or spill it to the others and makes Cersei’s job that much easier.

If Ned keeps that one to himself (which I believe he would) then I do believe he could convince Robert to formally recognize Stannis. Ned would also likely get an order to round up the Lannisters there and then.

[Minsc]

On 4/26/2021 at 9:04 PM, James West said:

Robert will be reluctant to do this.  He is a traditionalists and it is unseemly to legitimize a bastard for the purposes of handing them a kingdom.  

How is Robert a traditionalist?

[Lee-Sensei]

7 hours ago, nyser1 said:

Even on his deathbed, I find it hard to believe that Robeet would have looked past Ned protecting a son of Rhaegar, if he told him. In fact, he might even yell or spill it to the others and makes Cersei’s job that much easier.

If Ned keeps that one to himself (which I believe he would) then I do believe he could convince Robert to formally recognize Stannis. Ned would also likely get an order to round up the Lannisters there and then.

Robert wanted his property passed on to a direct descendant of his. It would be one of his bastards. Probably Edric.

[Lady_Qohor]

7 hours ago, Minsc said:

How is Robert a traditionalist?

I think it's more that there's no evidence for Robert being a modernist/progressive. He shows no interest in new innovations or modern or more liberal ideas. Royal family aside, Westeros doesn't seemed to have changed much since in the years since Aerys II.

The status quo seems to suit Robert perfectly. 

[nyser1]

9 hours ago, Lee-Sensei said:

Robert wanted his property passed on to a direct descendant of his. It would be one of his bastards. Probably Edric.

But would he given how little he showed interest? Clock is also ticking quickly and he would not be of a sound state of mind.

[Lord Varys]

1 hour ago, nyser1 said:

But would he given how little he showed interest? Clock is also ticking quickly and he would not be of a sound state of mind.

The idea why Robert may have favored Edric over one of his brothers is that (1) Robert earlier complained that Ned would have been a better king/should have been king instead of him, and (2) that Robert effectively hands the kingdom to Ned when he names him Lord Regent and Protector of the Realm.

My idea is that Robert could gladly die looking forward to the fact that Ned would now rule the Realm in Joffrey's name. He is glad that Ned will do his job better than Robert ever could, etc.

The original thought is that Robert may decide that, should he have been told by Ned that he had no trueborn children, to bugger the succession laws entirely and name Ned his successor. Robert himself also didn't inherit his throne, after all. Ned would never accept something like that, presumably, especially since he didn't want to be king.

Hence, if we assume Robert really wanted to hand the reins of power to Ned and since we know that Robert did not actually trust either of his brothers well enough to name them Hand after Jon's death, and if we assume that Robert wouldn't really have liked the idea of a 'King Stannis' because his character was potentially damaging to the kingdom ... then the one way to ensure that Ned would become 'a king of sorts' would be to make another minor boy Robert's successor, and the best candidate for this would be Edric Storm.

During his minority Ned could continue to rule the kingdom like he would have done as Joffrey's regent. And my idea is that this was what Robert wanted - his old buddy in charge of things - not so much that his bloodline or kin would continue to rule.

In a very real sense Eddard Stark is the only family Robert Baratheon has got left when he dies. He is the one at his bedside. Not Renly, not Stannis, and certainly not Cersei or any of her children.

[Lee-Sensei]

16 hours ago, nyser1 said:

But would he given how little he showed interest? Clock is also ticking quickly and he would not be of a sound state of mind.

Yeah. His last words to Ned were to look after his children and he was going to pass it on to Joffrey, even though he really disliked him. He gave his brothers castles. He clearly wanted to pass on his holdings to his own children. If Ned told him the truth, Edric is the obvious choice.

[LindsayLohan]

LOL @ Tywin placing Jaime under house arrest. Come on. 

[Aemond's Eye]

Joffrey still inherits and Cersei still destroys the king's decree, with Ned accused of treason still and taking advantage of Robert by having him sign the decree whilst he was under the influence of milk of the poppy. The only way things play out differently is if Ned decides not to give Cersei a heads up and arrests her, places her children in his custody and sends word to Robert on his hunt. Telling Robert on his deathbed won't change anything.