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Covid-19 #28: Astra Projecting is an Out of Body Experience


Fragile Bird

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1 hour ago, Heartofice said:

And yet the UK has somehow managed to get that supply.. by signing better contracts and doing everything faster 

You are completely ignoring scale.  The EU has administered twice the amount of vaccines as the UK.   Comparing the efforts required to vaccinate all of the EU and all the UK only shows how different the two are.

If the EU took every single vaccine from the UK, it would still be way short of what was required.  Once the UK had access to supply, it was always going to be easier to ramp up to the levels required.

And one can always do things better. :)  I mentioned before that it is a pity that the EU didn't have a major pharma company in the vaccine business.  There isn't much Von Der Leyen (or anyone) could do about that.  The approval process is a complete red herring though.   If the supply isn't there, it doesn't matter when you approve a vaccine (e.g. J&J or even Moderna).  If the supply is there but you take a couple extra weeks, then you have a bigger stockpile to use when approved. 

There is a question about the contracts.  In a few years times, somebody will write a book and explain why AZ was so determined to throw the EU under a bus legally.  Although, when I say that, no judge has ruled on the contracts.  I'm sure the EU thinks they were very robust.  But for whatever reason (certainly linked to where its domiciled), AZ thinks differently.  Whether we should value that opinion is another question.

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5 hours ago, Heartofice said:

And yet the UK has somehow managed to get that supply.. by signing better contracts and doing everything faster 

Your blindness and willful ignoring of the facts is hurting. I agree that the UK is doing a good job in the actual vaccination process. Let’s be honest they played a risky strategy with delaying the second jab but it seems to be working out. 
 

Doesn’t change the facts I stated and which you completely ignored. Anyway realistically speaking at the end of April, the EU should have more than enough supply especially of Biontech. A new factory started producing in February, other cooperation projects also started. But you can be assured that no one in continental Europe will forget the absolute asshole behavior of the UK government. No one, from Spain to Poland. The longterm damage is huge and this behavior will have very negative repercussions. But Brexiteers and BOJO don’t care as long as they can score a few cheap points against the oh so shitty EU, I mean EUSSR :). In the end the English working and middle class will suffer the most due to this. But which Tory really cares...

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Quite simply there are a number of reasons for the UKs vaccine success. But the main one is that it simply did everything faster. It was the first country in the world to approve vaccines. It got ahead of the queue when it came to signing contracts with pharma companies, and then invested heavily in vaccines, spending a lot of money to get them.

It is quite an interesting case of how the EU is trying to pass the buck and deflect from its own terrible performance, though anyone whose been awake for the past 5 years will be well aware of how they operate.

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What on good earth is happening?

We are at this point 2nd in Europe in death per population ratio, the mortality rate is 4.7%, we have 1500 people on ventilators, some 20 pregnant women on oxygen and we just produced 272 covid fatalities in 24 hours. How. How is this happening when everything’s closed and there’s a curfew and masks are mandatory everywhere and 18% of the population got their first vaccine. I get that people piss on these restrictions and recommendations but don’t all people do so in not-eastern Asia? 

Like where’s the end? How many tens of thousands of people are going to die before this is over? At this point 2 in every 1000 people of this country died of covid. At this point I don’t want my mother to go and buy groceries because it might kill her. How is this even happening? 

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2 minutes ago, RhaenysBee said:

What on good earth is happening?

We are at this point 2nd in Europe in death per population ratio, the mortality rate is 4.7%, we have 1500 people on ventilators, some 20 pregnant women on oxygen and we just produced 272 covid fatalities in 24 hours. How. How is this happening when everything’s closed and there’s a curfew and masks are mandatory everywhere and 18% of the population got their first vaccine. I get that people piss on these restrictions and recommendations but don’t all people do so in not-eastern Asia? 

Like where’s the end? How many tens of thousands of people are going to die before this is over? At this point 2 in every 1000 people of this country died of covid. At this point I don’t want my mother to go and buy groceries because it might kill her. How is this even happening? 

I don't know. We need a closer examination of what it's going on. There are multiple reports from S. America and Europe that an ICU occupancy shift towards younger people is being observed. Are the variants causing this? Is some particular subset of the population that it's being affected? Are the people becoming less careful and dodging around lockdows and restrictions? Something else? Reinfections? Co-infections?

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54 minutes ago, Filippa Eilhart said:

and people keep telling you that faster approval doesn’t matter. What matters is scale. If Germany took all the vaccines produced in the EU it would be way ahead of the UK regardless of the approval timeline.

If Belgium took every vaccine produced inside its country it could have vaccinated its population three times already....

Following the news - and following this board  of decent and nice people zorral reminded us just yesterday just how close we became in a way in a world where closeness (at least real life closeness) can only happen in very small doses because of Corona-     we can see how the real life problem of vaccine distribution is affecting the views between nations. this is a very bad development. And -as some US-boarder pointed out somewhere - Russia and China using vaccine diplomacy in a political way too. 

Cooperation and working together is always better for everyone (and gives the max output of vaccine for everyone) and is reducing tension. I hope that the US will soon start to see this. Also though there was critisism in Germany why to not go alone (we would be so much quicker) I am glad that the EU stands together in this (with some very small exeptions) and we do not have a discussion now between France and Poland and Italy who deliveres when what to whom and who gets more and who is taken advantage of. This kind of tension is bad for the world.  As for the UK, this vaccine problematic brought home brexit and its ramifications  to us as nothing else did before. Its a little bit as with a divorced wife who could not understand why separating anyway , and who now finds out that when her ex said he does not want any connection he meant exactly that. we are now in a new stage of grief here and will be able to move on free and with less illusions.

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19 minutes ago, rotting sea cow said:

I don't know. We need a closer examination of what it's going on. There are multiple reports from S. America and Europe that an ICU occupancy shift towards younger people is being observed. Are the variants causing this? Is some particular subset of the population that it's being affected? Are the people becoming less careful and dodging around lockdows and restrictions? Something else? Reinfections? Co-infections?

This is also most frightening. I’ve heard two stories of 29 and 34 year old women who were admitted to ICU days into their infection and died in another few days (without any known comorbidities). 
Co-infection is something I can see as one of the potential causes of our skyrocketing death toll. Hospitals are crowded and hardly sanitary at this point, there are stories circulating about people were admitted with moderate covid symptoms and got (sometimes several) other infections in hospital. And it’s no secret that the average joe here pisses on restrictions and wears their mask under their nose if at all. Regarding the other possibilities, I can’t even guess. 

Either way, this is scary. More scary that 2020 spring. In fact the situation is objectively far worse than a year ago too and that’s truly disheartening. It feels as though its just a matter of time before we all die in some wave by some variant. And I still feel like we aren’t doing better than 100 years ago (I get that this is a distorted and flawed perception but that’s how it feels to me). 

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33 minutes ago, RhaenysBee said:

What on good earth is happening?

We are at this point 2nd in Europe in death per population ratio, the mortality rate is 4.7%, we have 1500 people on ventilators, some 20 pregnant women on oxygen and we just produced 272 covid fatalities in 24 hours. How. How is this happening when everything’s closed and there’s a curfew and masks are mandatory everywhere and 18% of the population got their first vaccine. I get that people piss on these restrictions and recommendations but don’t all people do so in not-eastern Asia? 

Like where’s the end? How many tens of thousands of people are going to die before this is over? At this point 2 in every 1000 people of this country died of covid. At this point I don’t want my mother to go and buy groceries because it might kill her. How is this even happening? 

Pissing on restrictions seems to mean different things to people with different cultural backgrounds. For Scandinavians social distancing by default seemed to work somewhat although even Finland is starting to have problems now.

Some places have enforcement in puplic places, transport and shops(parts of Germany for example) while I have encountered zero enforcement of the rules here in my area of Austria and the police seems to have no interest at all in the topic.

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The biggest reason why cases are increasing is obviously because way too many people are selfish assholes who don't give a damn about measures and help to spread this shit further. If everybody was under lockdown for weeks, even with a reproduction rate of 10, cases would be going down. Governments should really point out these jerks as a key reason why our misery keeps going on instead of improving; but since governments have been screwing up big time since more than a year, they can't really point fingers and can't lead and rule anymore. In many places, they dropped the ball so hard they barely bother anymore with enforcing measures. Sadly, I don't expect to ever see a reckoning, either for the useless political leadership of many countries (except the rare Karma case of Tanzanian president) or for the sociopaths who go maskless into packed public transportation.

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1 minute ago, Clueless Northman said:

The biggest reason why cases are increasing is obviously because way too many people are selfish assholes who don't give a damn about measures and help to spread this shit further. If everybody was under lockdown for weeks, even with a reproduction rate of 10, cases would be going down. Governments should really point out these jerks as a key reason why our misery keeps going on instead of improving; but since governments have been screwing up big time since more than a year, they can't really point fingers and can't lead and rule anymore. In many places, they dropped the ball so hard they barely bother anymore with enforcing measures. Sadly, I don't expect to ever see a reckoning, either for the useless political leadership of many countries (except the rare Karma case of Tanzanian president) or for the sociopaths who go maskless into packed public transportation.

There is a lot of it. I don't deny it. In the building on front of me some students have beer parties every second day. There aren't many people meeting but still.

On the other hand, we truly don't know if a particular demographics are being hit harder than the rest of the population. This information hardly exists. I've heard stories of course, but it's a topic that nobody wants to discuss openly for fear of stoking racism.  If this is true, the shotgun approach of the measures is not sufficient and you need to work with the communities. There has been a dearth of more integral approach to this crisis. Politicians and even scientists live in their own bubbles and don't understand why poor people cannot social distance themselves.

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BTW: I continue to think that promoting travel this summer (via the infamous green pass) is a terrible idea that might blow onto our faces next autumn.

Until a substantial amount of the population get the vaccine and we are making sure over at least a six month period that it's working as intended, we cannot relax ourselves.

I'm not going anywhere, vaccines or not.

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5 hours ago, Arakan said:

Your blindness and willful ignoring of the facts is hurting. I agree that the UK is doing a good job in the actual vaccination process. Let’s be honest they played a risky strategy with delaying the second jab but it seems to be working out. 
 

Doesn’t change the facts I stated and which you completely ignored. Anyway realistically speaking at the end of April, the EU should have more than enough supply especially of Biontech. A new factory started producing in February, other cooperation projects also started. But you can be assured that no one in continental Europe will forget the absolute asshole behavior of the UK government. No one, from Spain to Poland. The longterm damage is huge and this behavior will have very negative repercussions. But Brexiteers and BOJO don’t care as long as they can score a few cheap points against the oh so shitty EU, I mean EUSSR :). In the end the English working and middle class will suffer the most due to this. But which Tory really cares...

It's not that they don't care; that would imply that it's a bug in the system.

It's a feature; Brexiteers and BOJO actively want to piss off the EU at every possible opportunity - because it helps stoke petty nationalism, and it makes it harder for the UK to rejoin the EU once they're out of power.

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32 minutes ago, Which Tyler said:

It's not that they don't care; that would imply that it's a bug in the system.

It's a feature; Brexiteers and BOJO actively want to piss off the EU at every possible opportunity - because it helps stoke petty nationalism, and it makes it harder for the UK to rejoin the EU once they're out of power.

The EU are doing a fantastic job of proving that everything Brexiteers have been saying about them for the past few years was completely correct. If they wanted to give Brits reasons for why Brexit was the right choice they are going about it the right way.

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4 hours ago, Heartofice said:

Quite simply there are a number of reasons for the UKs vaccine success. But the main one is that it simply did everything faster. It was the first country in the world to approve vaccines. It got ahead of the queue when it came to signing contracts with pharma companies, and then invested heavily in vaccines, spending a lot of money to get them.

After reading your posts I decided to go to Worldometer to look at your vaunted UK vaccine success.

Holy shit. 50% of your population is vaccinated and you had 5400 cases yesterday? 68 million people, 34 M is half, bump that up to 38 M for youngsters, same population as Canada, and you had 1400 more cases than Canada where less than 10% are vaccinated? Eta: no, 1600 more cases than Canada yesterday.

This is the UK definition of success?

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45 minutes ago, Which Tyler said:

it makes it harder for the UK to rejoin the EU once they're out of power.

Wait, there are people who seriously think EU will let UK come back if there's another government and they ask nicely?

 

1 hour ago, rotting sea cow said:

On the other hand, we truly don't know if a particular demographics are being hit harder than the rest of the population. This information hardly exists. I've heard stories of course, but it's a topic that nobody wants to discuss openly for fear of stoking racism.

The one demographics at risk, that's barely spoken about, is the obese people - but the issue is, where do you put the threshold between "at risk" and "not at risk", a BMI limit possibly. That lack of discussion without any doubt has killed hundreds of people, though.

Other than that, if I had to make a completely blind guess about "race" or "ethnic origin", I'd wonder if there's any subtle genetic precondition with people from Mediterranean origin - mostly Italian and Iberian, considering how Greece and N. Africa haven't been hit as hard, and how Latin America has been horribly mauled. But that would be quite weird. A US observer might wonder if there's a precondition among Black people, but considering how Africa has fared, I would ascribe the terrible outcomes for African-Americans mostly if not entirely to social and economic conditions. And that's probably not a valid guess anymore since current death rates are just all over Europe, with relatively homogeneous Central European countries badly hit. Fatality rates are even less reliable than death rates.

I've tried to look at it from a cold analytical point of view, to see if some areas and people are more at risk, so that they would be made aware of it and could take extra care, and to assess my and my friends and family genuine risks, but I've never been able to come to any meaningful conclusion. At this point, I have a feeling key elements are isolation of the country/area, policies and measures taken, and how well neighbours are faring - if your neighbours have huge number of cases, unless you close down the border and there's no contact anymore, you're going to be in trouble.

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27 minutes ago, Fragile Bird said:

After reading your posts I decided to go to Worldometer to look at your vaunted UK vaccine success.

Holy shit. 50% of your population is vaccinated and you had 5400 cases yesterday? 68 million people, 34 M is half, bump that up to 38 M for youngsters, same population as Canada, and you had 1400 more cases than Canada where less than 10% are vaccinated? Eta: no, 1600 more cases than Canada yesterday.

This is the UK definition of success?

Why is cases relevant?  We’ve vaccinated the vulnerable population.

Plus in Jan we were at 60k cases so I think you can see the difference. But yeah cases I don’t care about 

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