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Covid-19 #28: Astra Projecting is an Out of Body Experience


Fragile Bird

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What had absolutely astonished me from the stories is that J&J is shipping vaccine from Europe to the US. How bloody galling is that! The country with the largest amount of doses administered in the world is taking vaccine away from countries with 1/3 the number administered. Amazing.

1 minute ago, Which Tyler said:

Well fuck!

"However idiot proof you make a process, nature will provide a bigger idiot"

Emergent was contracted by J&J to make vaccine and hired hundreds of new employees. Just how well are they being trained?

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www.theguardian.com/world/2021/apr/01/almost-third-of-uk-covid-hospital-patients-readmitted-within-four-months

 

Quote

Almost third of UK Covid hospital patients readmitted within four months

BMJ analysis of 48,000 records also finds one in eight patients die within four months of discharge.

Nearly a third of people who have been in hospital suffering from Covid-19 are readmitted for further treatment within four months of being discharged, and one in eight of patients dies in the same period, doctors have found.

The striking long-term impact of the disease has prompted doctors to call for ongoing tests and monitoring of former coronavirus patients to detect early signs of organ damage and other complications caused by the virus.

While Covid is widely known to cause serious respiratory problems, the virus can also infect and damage other organs such as the heart, liver and kidneys.


https://www.bmj.com/content/372/bmj.n693

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1 hour ago, Padraig said:

At the same time, there are a few odd things going on with US/UK's relationship with EU.  I find the "alone we stand" approach poor.  The US possibly claiming the J&J vaccine produced in the EU (its possible even at more risk now that they destroyed 15m) is also poor.  The UK making some sort of claim on the AZ vaccine produced in Halix is similarly poor.   AZ's very close relationship with the UK doesn't reflect well on the UK (given how badly AZ has done) but maybe the EU should have seen that AZ was never going to be its ally given Brexit.

 

I agree fully with all of this, we are not in a good place here.

On the bright side I read an article today about the Biontech Marburg factory which makes me hope that all of these vaccination problems will go away for all of us ( and I mean the world ) rather sooner than later.

So, Biontech opened its first vaccine factory in February in Marburg, It was approved by the EMA last week and started delivering also last week. It is a small factory in the sense that only 250 people work there (planned 400 until the end of year). But its output in the moment  is 8 mio doses in five days (one dose is 3 microgramm, so not a lot (24 g/ 5 days) but you do not need a lot). They plan to deliver 750 mio doses this year and 1 billion doses next year. The set up of the plant (they use the building of an old chemical factory) was extremely quick, (the limiting factor being some special machines for the formulae of the mRNA with the lipids). So it does not seem to be all that difficult to ramp up production. On the contrary it looks surprisingly easy.  It seems to be much faster to produce  the mRNA stuff than the other vaccines, which, as far as I understand, use  for production  a biological process which takes one or two months, and it may happen that one batch doesnt yield as it should (this is how AZ explained their delivery failure).

This is now at least the sixth mRNA vaccine factory (Moderna US and Moderna Switzerland, Pfizer US and Pfizer Belgium and Fosum/Pfizer Asia?), so how difficult can it be to produce 10 billion doses?

 

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12 hours ago, Altherion said:

 Also, literally not a single person I spoke with in real life would pick the Johnson & Johnson if given a choice despite the fact that it only requires a single dose.

Just to echo what other people have said if given the choice (I almost certainly won't be) I'd go with the J&J vaccine. The differences in headline efficacy don't mean a great deal on an individual level and not having to bother with getting a second jab would be a big selling point for me.

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1 hour ago, ljkeane said:

Just to echo what other people have said if given the choice (I almost certainly won't be) I'd go with the J&J vaccine. The differences in headline efficacy don't mean a great deal on an individual level and not having to bother with getting a second jab would be a big selling point for me.

Me three.  In fact, we might all end up having to get boosters next winter anyhow, so i'd rather skip 1 injection this year. :)

Given J&J's delivery schedule (sizeable quantities starting in June), I might actually have a chance to get it too!

1 hour ago, JoannaL said:

This is now at least the sixth mRNA vaccine factory (Moderna US and Moderna Switzerland, Pfizer US and Pfizer Belgium and Fosum/Pfizer Asia?), so how difficult can it be to produce 10 billion doses?

Very interesting.  The issue may not be factories, it may be ingredients?  Novavax has raised a concern about that.  But I don't know are the mRNA vaccines also susceptible to whatever Novavax is worried about.  I was reading about Curevac still expecting to deliver 300m vaccines this year also, so that's at least 1 more mRNA factory.

4 hours ago, Fragile Bird said:

What had absolutely astonished me from the stories is that J&J is shipping vaccine from Europe to the US.

Right.  The contract says J&J would supply the vaccine to the EU in April, so I suppose the EU knew initial deliveries would go to the US.  There is an advantage in having a loose arrangement when it comes to levels of control, in so far as foreign companies are more likely to set up in your country.  If you insist that a foreign company must put your country first, then they may simply choose another country.  (That's why the aim is to build up your own native industries.  Then they all have that inbuilt bias to prefer their home base.  Or even more preferably, you build a tight alliance of countries, so you end up with an even larger portfolio of options and de-risk even further).

4 hours ago, Which Tyler said:

www.theguardian.com/world/2021/apr/01/almost-third-of-uk-covid-hospital-patients-readmitted-within-four-months

Quiet a powerful study, since they compare those that were in hospital with COVID with a control group in the general population.  So you can see how much more likely you are to die subsequently (or get a bad illness).

Not good, result wise.

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15 hours ago, S John said:

Really? I have had the opposite experience and talked to several people who would prefer one and done. It’s (apparently) as effective as the others at keeping you out of the hospital and that’s really the main thing. I would get it if offered.

That's interesting. I think to some extent it's simply that everyone knows at least some people who have already had either Pfizer or Moderna shots, but J&J is not widely available yet so we don't know how it behaves except from the relatively tiny study sample. From your response and others here, it looks like this preference is community specific.

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1 hour ago, Padraig said:

Right.  The contract says J&J would supply the vaccine to the EU in April, so I suppose the EU knew initial deliveries would go to the US.  There is an advantage in having a loose arrangement when it comes to levels of control, in so far as foreign companies are more likely to set up in your country.  If you insist that a foreign company must put your country first, then they may simply choose another country.  (That's why the aim is to build up your own native industries.  Then they all have that inbuilt bias to prefer their home base.  Or even more preferably, you build a tight alliance of countries, so you end up with an even larger portfolio of options and de-risk even further).

I have a suspicion, if that's so, that J&J has shipped everything it has produced to date to the US, and everything going forward will go to other contract holders. The Canadian government has announced we will see our first vaccine doses from J&J at the end of April.

But, on that topic of a foreign company putting your country first, the Federal government, the Province of Ontario and Sanofi have announced a major expansion of the Sanofi plant in Toronto. Sanofi had previously told the government that they would not manufacture Covid vaccine here, back when they had a vaccine hopeful. All that criticism of Canada not building vaccine infrastructure? The Canadian government has been busy, to make sure we never get in that situation again. There's a federal facility in final stages of build in Montreal, the one that will make Novavax vaccine, possibly by year end, there's a big Medicago plant being built in Quebec, although that won't be ready until late 2022 or in 2023, that will make their plant-based vaccines, there's a smaller mRNA plant being built in Calgary for Providence, which has started their Phase 3, and there is a larger mRNA plant just breaking ground in the Vancouver area, which will come on line in 2 years or so with a capability to make 250 M or more doses a year. There are also numerous university-associated plants that have the potential for expansion.

But back to Sanofi. The Federal government is contributing $415 M, the province $55 M, and Sanofi $455 M, plus Sanofi has guaranteed spending at least $79 M a year on R&D. This plant will manufacture flu vaccine and will make enough to supply all of Canada. It currently makes flu vaccine at the old Connaught Laboratories, which it acquired along the way, where it manufactures high-dose flu vaccine for people over the age of 65. That should cover us for future flu pandemics. The plant won't be ready until 2027, though, which just shows the long term planning required. I assume Sanofi hasn't designed it yet, but it will be a high-tech facility with, in addition to the vaccine producing section, a high-volume fill and finish facility, so nothing needs to be shipped to the US (and potentially seized) in the future.

And it is worth noting that in the news reports I saw yesterday about the story, the reporters all demanded to know if the Government of Canada would control where any vaccine produced at the plant would go. The Minister emphasized that this was the case. 

Quote

The new money will build an "end-to-end influenza vaccine manufacturing facility," said a federal release, and is expected to create some 300 high-quality jobs in Toronto.

The new facility is expected to be up and running in 2027, and will have the capacity to produce "enough vaccine doses to support the entire Canadian population within approximately six months of the World Health Organization (WHO) identifying a pandemic influenza strain," the release continued.

"The investment will enable Sanofi to bulk manufacture Fluzone High-Dose Quadrivalent Influenza Vaccine, a flu vaccine approved for people 65 years and older, at its historic Connaught site in Toronto," a provincial release said. 

https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/toronto/flu-vaccine-production-north-york-toronto-sanofi-1.5970870

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I'm in Michigan and we actually have people coming to our house to give us vaccinations.  That's due primarily to my husband being immunocompromised what with chemo and all.  I've been 1st time vaccinated as was my husband, and our second vac will be in the required amount of days.  They're doing vaccinations by appointment at places like major drug store chains and hospitals, along with Meijer stores (a large regional grocery chain.)  

I'm not sure whether Michigan is considered a red or a blue state anymore.  It used to be firmly blue, now no one's really sure.  :worried: 

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3 minutes ago, Tears of Lys said:

I'm in Michigan and we actually have people coming to our house to give us vaccinations.  That's due primarily to my husband being immunocompromised what with chemo and all.  I've been 1st time vaccinated as was my husband, and our second vac will be in the required amount of days.  They're doing vaccinations by appointment at places like major drug store chains and hospitals, along with Meijer stores (a large regional grocery chain.)  

I'm not sure whether Michigan is considered a red or a blue state anymore.  It used to be firmly blue, now no one's really sure.  :worried: 

Lansing area born here.

By memory it used to be something like, East of Brighton Blue, West of Portland Red, Lansing and Battle Creek Purple, North of St John's Red.:D

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Sorry to report that today’s eligibility requirements expanded to include people receiving dialysis, and not people with kidney disease as was originally reported, and people receiving chemotherapy, but, weirdly, only for certain cancers, which I haven’t looked up.

On the other hand, I expect the age cohort to drop to those between 65 and 70 within a few days. I could sign up for AZ now, but I have have some immune system issues and if at all possible would like to get one of the mRNA vaccines.

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8 hours ago, Padraig said:

And I'm not talking about the UK/US assisting Europe here.  There are a lot of countries that need assistance much more than the EU.  Vaccinating healthy people while hundreds of millions of vulnerable people are unvaccinated in other countries is quite dreadful.  But, we just politely look away when the WHO keeps repeating that.

On that we agree. Altho, you named the wrong organization to tackle this. It's the WTO not WHO, thru which the west could (theoretically) make a difference. The WTO rules on intellectual property (in this case vaccine and the production of vectors). A WTO waiver on it, ordering big pharma to show the Asian countries how to produce vaccine vectors and share the formula for the vaccines, and suddenly the vaccines would be much less rare - TRIPS Waiver (for those who want to delve into it thru google). Ofc, you need all the WTO members to agree on that, which the US absolutely won't.

5 hours ago, ljkeane said:

Just to echo what other people have said if given the choice (I almost certainly won't be) I'd go with the J&J vaccine. The differences in headline efficacy don't mean a great deal on an individual level and not having to bother with getting a second jab would be a big selling point for me.

I'd take the Pfizer(BionTech) vaccine if offered a choice. Pretty good efficacy and apparently also pretty robust against the various known mutations thus far.

@Fragile Bird Sanofi... they are one of those silly EU stories. Short of it, when the EU handed out the vaccine contracts, there were also some issues of National interest/pride at stake. Front runners in the race were Moderna, BionTech, AZ and I think J&J. And Macron was apaprently insistent on, if a German company (BionTech) gets one of the juicy EU contracts, then the French company Sanofi should also get one. Just that they were kinda behind in their research. Details :dunno:

On that note, I am sure the Swedish goverment will be very happy with AZ (it's an British-Swedish company afterall), not sure why people forget the Swedish bit.

11 hours ago, rotting sea cow said:

Anyway, rt.com is the russian equivalent of das Bild or dailyfail. The amount of BS that those tabloids spit everyday is enormous. From time to time there is something interesting, but is few and far in between.

Not really. While I consider Bild and Daily Fail as little more than printed TP, they are not  Goverment propaganda tools. RT is. It's much more like Faux News or OAN in the states.

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Virginia finally announced the date they're expanding eligibility to all adults, which'll be April 18. I know this is still far ahead where people in most other countries are, but I was getting really impatient seeing other US states moving forward and Virginia kept on not announcing anything.

I suspect it'll be a while before I can actually get an appointment though. I have limited mobility options right now, lacking a car; and apparently vaccine demand is extraordinarily high in my area (saw one survey putting it at 96% of adults wanting it).

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17 hours ago, A Horse Named Stranger said:

About the greedy bit. Right now, everybody is looking out for their own self-interest to some degree. Sure, the EU is exporting more than the UK or the US (combined). All players face domestic pressure to get their people vaccinated. If the US started shipping huge amount of vaccines out, while they are not immunized, how do you think that will play at home for Biden. Same with the Brits and Johnson.

You know this is just plain wrong, I assume. UK and US are exporting 0 - zero - vaccine and it's going to stay that way for months; maybe a handful of mio AZ doses that the US would never be able to use before they spoil will be given to Canada and Mexico, but as far as I've heard, this hasn't been done yet. So, for now, even a country which hasn't any vaccine factory has exported as many vaccines as UK or US.

As for "domestic pressure", EU has exported more vaccines than it has received. India as well. Same for China and Russia. Do you really think EU people wouldn't love to keep all vaccines to themselves? Yet their governments didn't manoeuver to corner the entier market and deprive other countries of their legitimate due.  There are only 2 big asshole countries, or at least with asshole governments obey a bunch of asshole citizens - or claim to obey them but do what they were going to do from the start. And please note that my use of "asshole" is an understatement and a polite term; with 20-y old getting mass-vaccinated in the very near future, the US and UK vaccine manipulations are actively killing people by the thousands. I suppose we'll see a new batch of Guardian, NYT and WaPo articles about "Vaccine nationalism bad, give doses to poor countries" as soon as US and UK are fully vaccinated, to gaslight EU a bit more, EU which at this point will at long last be able to vaccinate people aged 50 and over - though with Pfizer announcement, it might be wiser to delay that kind of media bullshit until the under-16 campaign is well underway.

The key problem with EU was its braindead decision to go with free market - as in "we make a deal in free-trade style because our good pals in DC and London will pla fair, do the same and in case of shortages the limited available doses will be shared between customers who've ordered and paid" and as in "intellectual property is more important than human life so fuck the world, let pharmas have full control over their vaccines". Those were worse than crimes, these were mistakes made on a typical EU ideological basis. Hopefully, Europe as a whole will move away from that losing position soon enough and go towards a saner economic policy and a healthy dose of protectionism when key resources, goods and industry/business are concerned.

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7 hours ago, Fragile Bird said:

But back to Sanofi. The Federal government is contributing $415 M, the province $55 M, and Sanofi $455 M, plus Sanofi has guaranteed spending at least $79 M a year on R&D.

...

And it is worth noting that in the news reports I saw yesterday about the story, the reporters all demanded to know if the Government of Canada would control where any vaccine produced at the plant would go. The Minister emphasized that this was the case. 

Right.  The big hole in my argument is that I didn't discuss money.  If you throw enough money at the problem, it will overcome most issues.  I don't find it good that every country needs to build a few factories to cover their vaccine needs, but it is the times we live in unfortunately.

By the way, the Financial Times has a good article on the blood clotting issue.  Its behind a pay wall and I read it on my phone, so I can't quote from it.  Basically, the UK has updated the instances of this ailment to 30 cases per 18.1m doses.  Or 1 in every 600k.  Still way higher than the figures quoted in Germany but demographics may explain that difference (i.e. it was given to a much higher proportion of younger people in Germany).  Unfortunately, the FT didn't give the demographics of the cases in the UK.  That would almost prove that one way or the other.

4 hours ago, A Horse Named Stranger said:

Altho, you named the wrong organization to tackle this. It's the WTO not WHO, thru which the west could (theoretically) make a difference.

WHO talks about helping other countries with vaccines.  Although you are right that the WTO has more power in this area and its new leader has supported the idea of helping other countries.  Interesting, the US government has said that it is considering its options but its hard to imagine that it will go anywhere.

4 hours ago, A Horse Named Stranger said:

And Macron was apaprently insistent on, if a German company (BionTech) gets one of the juicy EU contracts, then the French company Sanofi should also get one. Just that they were kinda behind in their research.

In fairness to Sanofi, it is one of the biggest vaccine producers in the world (I only found this out very recently).  So taking a punt on them seems reasonable.  Weirdly, Valneva, another French company is building a factory in the UK because it couldn't get the attention of the French government.  Its vaccine shows promise.

And maybe it was the link with Oxford University (which ensured that AZ's vaccine was very British) but yes, I find it weird how little Sweden gained from its AZ links.

In good news, Pfizer/Biontech had very good results in a limited real life test against the South African variant.   And I did find it "reassuring" that AZ did get involved in the J&J contamination story too.  It was AZ vaccine that was added to the J&J vaccine.  :)

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4 hours ago, Fez said:

Virginia finally announced the date they're expanding eligibility to all adults, which'll be April 18. I know this is still far ahead where people in most other countries are, but I was getting really impatient seeing other US states moving forward and Virginia kept on not announcing anything.

I suspect it'll be a while before I can actually get an appointment though. I have limited mobility options right now, lacking a car; and apparently vaccine demand is extraordinarily high in my area (saw one survey putting it at 96% of adults wanting it).

Is there someone you trust who could give you a ride?  would you be willing to take an uber with the windows down, an n95 and a face-shield?  Just trying to game out some options....

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2 hours ago, Mlle. Zabzie said:

Is there someone you trust who could give you a ride?  would you be willing to take an uber with the windows down, an n95 and a face-shield?  Just trying to game out some options....

There's always the option to rent a car, and if there's going to be a longer commute involved, might be worth it to eat the over pricing of a one day rental (although you can in that case rent the cheapest thing possible).

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No need to detail how bad the situation still is here. 250-300 deaths and 9000ish new cases per day. The mortality rate is 5% only one country that’s not a mini state has a higher rate of death per population in all of Europe. The stats are objectively the worst they have ever been. 

Administration system crash everywhere, be it vaccination registration or vaccine allocation or even just immunity cards. It’s all pure chaos and I don’t see any ladder. 

That’s is however regular at this point in COVID though. The peculiarity I want to share with you all is this. 

In the situation described above people are refusing vaccines in such quantities that in the capital GPs are calling twenty-somethings if they want a freebie vaccine. The reasons for refusal that I’ve heard of: they don’t want any vaccine, AZ causes thrombosis and kills, Russia’s untrustworthy, Chinese medicine causes cancer, and, I can’t go on a summer holiday with this or that vaccine. And in all this mess, my 54 year old mother with hypertension and other mild chronic conditions who signed up for a vaccine in October, still haven’t received even a notification. 

I have no words. 

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12 hours ago, Padraig said:

 

By the way, the Financial Times has a good article on the blood clotting issue.  Its behind a pay wall and I read it on my phone, so I can't quote from it.  Basically, the UK has updated the instances of this ailment to 30 cases per 18.1m doses.  Or 1 in every 600k.  Still way higher than the figures quoted in Germany but demographics may explain that difference (i.e. it was given to a much higher proportion of younger people in Germany).  Unfortunately, the FT didn't give the demographics of the cases in the UK.  That would almost prove that one way or the other.

 

Its in the German newspapers as well that the UK has updated their numbers from 5 to 30 , but I have not seen an article about that in BBC or guradian so cant quote.

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@A Horse Named Stranger

you really are a fan of koolaid and alternative facts, aren’t you? Look at the objective facts. As of March 26th the EU had exported 77 million vaccine doses, almost 50% of all corona vaccines produced within the EU. At the same time the US and UK exported nothing. Zero. The first export from American soil are those 1.5 million AZ doses. Meanwhile in the EU over 3,000 people are dying everyday right now and we still export out of solidarity. Facts my friend, fucking facts! Spare us your euphemisms. 
 

And the thing with Russia putting Trump into Office. I am so sick of this shit. If you as a person face a problem, look into the mirror, don’t externalize and blame others and your environment for your personal issues and  problems. First, look in the mirror.m. Goes for human beings and nations as well. Trump had been elected by Americans, stop this cheap cop out. 
 

Anyway, as @JoannaL already stated, a few days ago a new Biontech factory started production in Marburg, Hesse. Their production target are at least 1 billion doses per year (up to 1.3 billion). This factory will become the major Biontech vaccine supplier worldwide outside the US. As the fight against Corona is a longterm game (mutations!), I can only say, well Mr Boris Johnson you meet always twice in life...

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