[spoilers]Inside Winterfell DWD WOW - Northern Conspiracy

[Seams]

8 hours ago, MissM said:

What's the parallel?

As Arya, Hot Pie and Gendry encounter the Brotherhood Without Banners, GRRM shows us Arya using her map to follow the Little Willow and Big Willow Rivers. When she and her traveling companions have to hide, she chooses to hide behind a big willow:

Hot Pie opened his arms. The cabbages fell to the ground with soft thumps. "We have to hide." ... 

Where? The burned cottage and its overgrown garden stood hard beside the banks of the Trident. There were a few willows growing along the river's edge and reed beds in the muddy shallows beyond...

Lightfoot, she moved to the big old willow that grew beside the bend in the road and went to one knee in the grass and mud, within the veil of trailing branches. You old gods, she prayed as the singer's voice grew louder, you tree gods, hide me, and make him go past. Then a horse whickered, and the song broke off suddenly. He's heard, she knew, but maybe he's alone, or if he's not, maybe they'll be as scared of us as we are of them. (ASoS, Arya II)

When a Stark prays to the old gods, trees listen. Technically, even though Anguy and Lem find Arya, I suspect she is "hidden" within the willow at this moment. There are more layers of meaning in Arya's sojourn with Gendry and Hot Pie and the BWB, but being "in" a willow is part of it.

This passage may be the strongest direct evidence that GRRM wants us to compare the Heddle sisters to Sansa and Arya:

Gendry was the closest thing to a man grown, but it was Willow shouting all the orders, as if she were a queen in her castle and the other children were no more than servants.

If she were highborn, command would come naturally to her, and deference to them. Brienne wondered whether Willow might be more than she appeared. The girl was too young and too plain to be Sansa Stark, but she was of the right age to be the younger sister, and even Lady Catelyn had said that Arya lacked her sister's beauty. Brown hair, brown eyes, skinny . . . could it be? Arya Stark's hair was brown, she recalled, but Brienne was not sure of the color of her eyes. Brown and brown, was that it? Could it be that she did not die at Saltpans after all?

The inn at the crossroads is important in Catelyn's arc as the place she encounters Tyrion and takes him hostage. She also asserts her power as the daughter of Hoster Tully, calling on his bannermen to obey her orders. Inns in ASOIAF are entrances and exits for the underworld or otherworld, where characters can enter a new reality. Also, a "heddle" is apparently a tool used in weaving. Sewing and weaving symbolism are closely linked to Sansa and Arya from their early lessons with Septa Mordane. I think Brienne is meeting alternate versions of Catelyn's daughters when she meets Willow and Jeyne Heddle.

Of course, Jeyne Poole at Winterfell was a constant companion for Sansa who is impersonating Arya. Another hint about the way that GRRM uses that name to create an archetype and then shows us a comparison to Arya and Sansa. 

7 hours ago, Hippocras said:

I just don't see

Luckily, the books can be enjoyed on many levels. I like to dive deep into the hints and clues but I understand others don't like to do that.

[Hippocras]

1 hour ago, Seams said:

Luckily, the books can be enjoyed on many levels. I like to dive deep into the hints and clues but I understand others don't like to do that.

Oh I very much DO like to dive deep into the hints. I just fundamentally disagree on what constitutes a hint and clue. GRRM's writing is based in character driven plots backed up by messy history. Symbolism in the way you describe it would make a story that is far too rigid and contrived.

Basically even HE doesn't know exactly where he wants to go with everything, which is why he leaves all these loose threads all over the place. He is not committed. Some of those threads he will decide to develop further and some will prove to be misleading but key to keeping us surprised and guessing. But none of it is worked out far enough in advance for the type of symbolic writing you describe.

Yes, he knows the general direction of things, I am not saying he doesn't. But to make a tight symbolic story every single detail would need to be PLANNED and he has very clearly said that he is a gardener, letting things grow as they will and surprising even him.

So when I look for clues, those clues are found in the history, motives, constraints and political realities of the characters.

[Hugorfonics]

On 4/13/2021 at 8:13 AM, Hippocras said:

Oh yes, I know about ravens

Lol

On 4/13/2021 at 8:13 AM, Hippocras said:

Problem is the ravens are tended by maesters, and noone in the North now, particularly any conspirators, seems all that keen on trusting maesters

Smart.

Which brings us to another direction on your compass, the grey rat one, who may not actually be a power and may lose whatever power they dont have when Euron takes Oldtown.

Yea I suppose thats true... I mean we see Stannis in twow needing maesters for said purpose

On 4/13/2021 at 8:13 AM, Hippocras said:

if Roose is the one who got the message about the prisoners, it would weaken his position to tell the Northmen about it so I doubt he would tell.

For sure. RW prisoners to Roose is like Bran and Rickon to his son. The facade can end with just one word of honesty. 

If anything Greatjons testimony is worse for Roose then Rickons. Ramsay burnt Winterfell and Theon didnt? Oh well, never cared for the bastard anyway. But, Roose was the kingslayer/ringleader cant back out of that one. 

On 4/13/2021 at 3:13 PM, Hippocras said:

Basically the people who knew about Robb's will were hanging with the one person alive who knows exactly who Jon is, and who also probably has reason to believe that Bran is alive

Good points. However Robbs will, although never seen by us, probably looks like Jon is legit and Sansas a dub. Therefore Jon is natrually the heir because hes got like 5 years on Bran. And as you say, Howland doesnt need Robbs will to know Jons king, although not lord of winterfell. (This is confusing)

I think the lack of dead tadpoles draping Winterfells gates with the miller boys is a strong sign to Howland that yes the boys are alive but more importantly Boltons a liar and the enemy.

Its hard to judge actions of mystery characters but if the laughing tree story is true, and Howland, then hes been to the isle and done his voodoo shit. His son also speaks with wisdom and sorrow since the cradle, and although he didnt know he was leaving his dad to go north, the dad probably knew he wasnt coming back.

The winged wolf is unchained, hes uncatchable. Rickon being alive is swell too but without Wex hes a needle in a hay stack.

[Seams]

5 hours ago, Hippocras said:

Basically even HE doesn't know exactly where he wants to go with everything, which is why he leaves all these loose threads all over the place. He is not committed.

I find this hilarious. 

I have been amused over the years by the many people who think that GRRM's remark about being a "gardener" means that he randomly or with little forethought pursues plot lines or character development. I have no idea where that interpretation started. It is so obvious to me that this is not the case: in fact, he uses many details to convey meaning and to link things that appear to be unrelated. After exploring his symbolic use of gardeners in the books, I have no doubt that his claim to be a gardener means that he carefully pulls weeds, plants seeds and nurtures details as they grow and blossom, extend their roots or spread their branches. 

Of course he has planned the books. And of course he uses symbolism, foreshadowing, the five senses, and parallel plot lines or characters. If he didn't, we'd have all seven books by now. 

It's your thread, though. I will bow out.

[Hippocras]

6 hours ago, Seams said:

I find this hilarious. 

I have been amused over the years by the many people who think that GRRM's remark about being a "gardener" means that he randomly or with little forethought pursues plot lines or character development. I have no idea where that interpretation started. It is so obvious to me that this is not the case: in fact, he uses many details to convey meaning and to link things that appear to be unrelated. After exploring his symbolic use of gardeners in the books, I have no doubt that his claim to be a gardener means that he carefully pulls weeds, plants seeds and nurtures details as they grow and blossom, extend their roots or spread their branches. 

Of course he has planned the books. And of course he uses symbolism, foreshadowing, the five senses, and parallel plot lines or characters. If he didn't, we'd have all seven books by now. 

It's your thread, though. I will bow out.

Yes he uses details. He does NOT use convoluted wording symbolism such as you described to lock him in to the point where he can't mention a willow tree or a monkey without creating problems for his symbolic language.

Tie your predictions to actual events and characters or I will not be able to take them seriously. Word play is not a clue on its own.

[MissM]

16 hours ago, Seams said:

As Arya, Hot Pie and Gendry encounter the Brotherhood Without Banners, GRRM shows us Arya using her map to follow the Little Willow and Big Willow Rivers. When she and her traveling companions have to hide, she chooses to hide behind a big willow:

Hot Pie opened his arms. The cabbages fell to the ground with soft thumps. "We have to hide." ... 

Where? The burned cottage and its overgrown garden stood hard beside the banks of the Trident. There were a few willows growing along the river's edge and reed beds in the muddy shallows beyond...

Lightfoot, she moved to the big old willow that grew beside the bend in the road and went to one knee in the grass and mud, within the veil of trailing branches. You old gods, she prayed as the singer's voice grew louder, you tree gods, hide me, and make him go past. Then a horse whickered, and the song broke off suddenly. He's heard, she knew, but maybe he's alone, or if he's not, maybe they'll be as scared of us as we are of them. (ASoS, Arya II)

When a Stark prays to the old gods, trees listen. Technically, even though Anguy and Lem find Arya, I suspect she is "hidden" within the willow at this moment. There are more layers of meaning in Arya's sojourn with Gendry and Hot Pie and the BWB, but being "in" a willow is part of it.

This passage may be the strongest direct evidence that GRRM wants us to compare the Heddle sisters to Sansa and Arya:

Gendry was the closest thing to a man grown, but it was Willow shouting all the orders, as if she were a queen in her castle and the other children were no more than servants.

If she were highborn, command would come naturally to her, and deference to them. Brienne wondered whether Willow might be more than she appeared. The girl was too young and too plain to be Sansa Stark, but she was of the right age to be the younger sister, and even Lady Catelyn had said that Arya lacked her sister's beauty. Brown hair, brown eyes, skinny . . . could it be? Arya Stark's hair was brown, she recalled, but Brienne was not sure of the color of her eyes. Brown and brown, was that it? Could it be that she did not die at Saltpans after all?

The inn at the crossroads is important in Catelyn's arc as the place she encounters Tyrion and takes him hostage. She also asserts her power as the daughter of Hoster Tully, calling on his bannermen to obey her orders. Inns in ASOIAF are entrances and exits for the underworld or otherworld, where characters can enter a new reality. Also, a "heddle" is apparently a tool used in weaving. Sewing and weaving symbolism are closely linked to Sansa and Arya from their early lessons with Septa Mordane. I think Brienne is meeting alternate versions of Catelyn's daughters when she meets Willow and Jeyne Heddle.

Of course, Jeyne Poole at Winterfell was a constant companion for Sansa who is impersonating Arya. Another hint about the way that GRRM uses that name to create an archetype and then shows us a comparison to Arya and Sansa. 

Luckily, the books can be enjoyed on many levels. I like to dive deep into the hints and clues but I understand others don't like to do that.

What insight do we get from this comparison do you think? Does it inform our understanding of the Stark girls relationship or personalities or events to come? 

[Springwatch]

3 hours ago, MissM said:

What insight do we get from this comparison do you think? Does it inform our understanding of the Stark girls relationship or personalities or events to come? 

Insight into character - that would be the conventional approach, but these are not conventional books. For example there is no clear separation between the magical elements and realistic ones: those incredible castles are introduced as 'ordinary', so is the Yunkai army and Belwas's belly cuts, and extremely young and old champion fighters - bizarre, impossible things. You have to take this as encouragement not to be limited to the realistic.

At a minimum, character parallels exist and there's no sensible way to deny them. (Example: Cersei-Jaime v's Margaery-Loras, also, this thread (imho) shows parallels are a fruitful approach to the books.)

So. Willow's description is likened to Arya - behaviour and appearance both. She has an older sister. She has a step mother with a 'red smile' - it is written in the text that a red smile is a way of saying a cut throat. As Arya's mother has. This is what gardening means - the story of the Heddles, even their appearance, is generated from the Starks.

Parallels exist. The why is more difficult. It is fun to spot them, but what seems to me the most likely purpose is to be part of GRRM's theme of shadows:

[Stannis] "[...] The shadows grow tall and short and every man casts a dozen. Some are fainter than others, that's all. Well, men cast their shadows across the future as well. One shadow or many. Melisandre sees them all." (Mel sees both Renly and Garlan, Renly's ghost.)

[Seams]

8 hours ago, MissM said:

What insight do we get from this comparison do you think? Does it inform our understanding of the Stark girls relationship or personalities or events to come? 

I'll start a separate thread on the comparison of the Heddle / Stark girls. It's a tangent from the original topic in this thread, although related to figuring out the machinations within occupied Winterfell. 

I'll tag you and we can discuss from there.

[Hippocras]

10 hours ago, MissM said:

What insight do we get from this comparison do you think? Does it inform our understanding of the Stark girls relationship or personalities or events to come? 

Because of the circumstances, tied into the dynamics between Arya and Sansa is also the relationship between Jeyne and Sansa. If Sansa learns what happened to Jeyne that's a pretty big deal.

As for Sansa and Arya, clearly the times before they were separated were very rocky, but I do wonder to what extent Sansa has developed some self-awareness of how she was manipulated into betraying her family. A tiny bit of self-awareness would make what Arya did because of her temper seem quite mild in comparison to what she herself did because of her infatuation. So, does she understand and have regrets.

[Hugorfonics]

1 hour ago, Hippocras said:

Because of the circumstances, tied into the dynamics between Arya and Sansa is also the relationship between Jeyne and Sansa. If Sansa learns what happened to Jeyne that's a pretty big deal.

When Sansa learns. She found out Lord Snow was elected so news does reach her. I have no doubt word of Arya Bolton will reach her ears soon.

What Petyr will say have to say about this will be interesting. I mean, he must have realized giving Jeyne to Bolton would have drastic implications. So whyd he do it? Did he gain anything? 

(Quotes I hope are applicable but are taken out of context)

Quote

Littlefinger shrugged. "I had no motive. Besides, I am a thousand leagues away in the Vale. Always keep your foes confused. If they are never certain who you are or what you want, they cannot know what you are like to do next. Sometimes the best way to baffle them is to make moves that have no purpose, or even seem to work against you. Remember that, Sansa, when you come to play the game."

Woah...

Quote

It is quite vexing. I had hoped to have four or five quiet years to plant some seeds and allow some fruits to ripen, but now . . . it is a good thing that I thrive on chaos. What little peace and order the five kings left us will not long survive the three queens, I fear."

I used to think it was Dany Cersei Sansa... But im pretty sure fArya is one of the three now. 

Like, Alaynes reborn as Sansa and immediately finds out her baby sisters alive and in duress. It will turn out duress doesnt begin to describe anything and instead of "always ruins everything Arya" its good ole bff Jeyne in the most despicable state, courtesy of papa Petyr. 

What the fuck is LF thinking?

1 hour ago, Hippocras said:

As for Sansa and Arya, clearly the times before they were separated were very rocky, but I do wonder to what extent Sansa has developed some self-awareness of how she was manipulated into betraying her family. A tiny bit of self-awareness would make what Arya did because of her temper seem quite mild in comparison to what she herself did because of her infatuation. So, does she understand and have regrets.

I think, despite Cerseis gratitude and Sansas wickedness, Ned really only fell because hes got the political skill of a cashew nut. But the Lady fiasco I think is where the sister conflict really boils at.

There was a first date mentality and the physical effects of getting drunk for the first time as a preteen but Sansa wasnt manipulated any further then that. 

Sansa recognizes her manipulation at the hands of sweet Cersei, merciful Joff, friendly Tyrells and currently papa Petyr. However not once does she question that maybe Arya was 100% not in the wrong and completely free of any blame for Ladys death. This I think will later come into play

[Springwatch]

1 hour ago, Hugorfonics said:

When Sansa learns. She found out Lord Snow was elected so news does reach her. I have no doubt word of Arya Bolton will reach her ears soon.

What Petyr will say have to say about this will be interesting. I mean, he must have realized giving Jeyne to Bolton would have drastic implications. So whyd he do it? Did he gain anything? 

(Quotes I hope are applicable but are taken out of context)

Woah...

I used to think it was Dany Cersei Sansa... But im pretty sure fArya is one of the three now. 

Like, Alaynes reborn as Sansa and immediately finds out her baby sisters alive and in duress. It will turn out duress doesnt begin to describe anything and instead of "always ruins everything Arya" its good ole bff Jeyne in the most despicable state, courtesy of papa Petyr. 

What the fuck is LF thinking?

What a very good point.

Sooo... if LF wants Alayne to love him, she must never meet fArya. So poor Jeyne must die. Well marrying Ramsay will do that for you, no further planning required. But Alayne must also never talk to any Lannister: Tywin, Jaime, Cersei, Tyrion. That's quite a lot of killing. And never talk to any northerner who might notice and mention the eye colour. Luckily the Boltons took out all of Winterfell's population.

I think it's ambitious, but doable.

1 hour ago, Hugorfonics said:

I think, despite Cerseis gratitude and Sansas wickedness, Ned really only fell because hes got the political skill of a cashew nut. But the Lady fiasco I think is where the sister conflict really boils at.

There was a first date mentality and the physical effects of getting drunk for the first time as a preteen but Sansa wasnt manipulated any further then that. 

Sansa recognizes her manipulation at the hands of sweet Cersei, merciful Joff, friendly Tyrells and currently papa Petyr. However not once does she question that maybe Arya was 100% not in the wrong and completely free of any blame for Ladys death. This I think will later come into play

Arya was an essential part of the chain of events leading to Lady's death. To do that, she had to be breaking Ned's rule to stay with the column.

Obviously Arya doesn't want Lady harmed - but without Arya's rule-breaking, Lady would still be alive. So Sansa feels angry about that, which is 100% a normal reaction. But she also knows Robert passed sentence, Cersei asked for it, and Ned swung the sword. So does Arya. I don't think there'll be any conflict about this issue at all.

 

[Hippocras]

10 hours ago, Springwatch said:

What a very good point.

Sooo... if LF wants Alayne to love him, she must never meet fArya. So poor Jeyne must die. Well marrying Ramsay will do that for you, no further planning required. But Alayne must also never talk to any Lannister: Tywin, Jaime, Cersei, Tyrion. That's quite a lot of killing. And never talk to any northerner who might notice and mention the eye colour. Luckily the Boltons took out all of Winterfell's population.

I think it's ambitious, but doable.

One thing I really struggle with is Littlefinger's relationship to Braavos. Clearly his family history is there. The Iron Bank loans to King Robert were arranged by him. Are we supposed to believe that is all there is to it? I mean I SUPPOSE it is possible that Braavos is just ancient history for the Baelish family but....really....when does GRRM do things that way?

I do not find it coincidence that the Iron Bank and the Faceless Men are based in the same city....I mean, how else to remain a Bank that always gets its due but by having a handy guild of assassins around to make sure of it? So I would be willing to bet that at least some people at the Iron Bank know that the real Arya is in Braavos. Possibly, therefore, Tycho also knows.

The timing of Tycho's visit to the North does seem to have an interesting correspondence to the timing of "Arya" being sent North to marry Ramsay. So let's say that Tycho knows Jeyne is not Arya: If that is the case, might it be that he too has an interest in making sure that fArya and Jon do not meet? Maybe, regardless of the mutiny, Tycho will feel it is in the best interest of the Iron Bank and of "Arya" to head to a location other than Castle Black, and I doubt Jeyne would argue with that.

If so, that in turn begs the question of whether Littlefinger is working WITH the Iron Bank or against them? Having roots in Braavos after all does not necessarily mean Braavos is a big happily family where everyone is working together, including outpost families such as the Baelishes (exhiles?).

This may seem like stuff for a different thread, but I think Littlefinger's relationship to Braavos, whatever it is, is highly relevant to how things play out regarding Arya with the Iron Bank now involved in the North. Producing a fake Arya may have seemed like a small risk vis a vis Sansa when the Lannisters were still firmly in power and Sansa was still compelled to stay in hiding. He said he thought he had more time to plant seeds. Those seeds no doubt would have led to the death of fake Arya long before she and Sansa ever had the chance to meet. Yes, Sansa might have learned the Lannisters sent "Arya" North to marry Ramsay but after all she never knew what happened to the real Arya and finding out she had been a Lannister prisoner the whole time would not be all that inconsistent with the information Sansa has. The detail that Littlefinger "found" a Northern girl to send to the North is something that noone is supposed to know about and that Littlefinger had reason to believe the Lannisters would never tell - he did not count on Jaime telling Brienne. The Lannisters and Littlefinger himself are supposed to be the only ones who know or would ever know that fArya is Jeyne.

12 hours ago, Hugorfonics said:

I used to think it was Dany Cersei Sansa... But im pretty sure fArya is one of the three now. 

Like, Alaynes reborn as Sansa and immediately finds out her baby sisters alive and in duress. It will turn out duress doesnt begin to describe anything and instead of "always ruins everything Arya" its good ole bff Jeyne in the most despicable state, courtesy of papa Petyr. 

What the fuck is LF thinking?

Which brings us to this.

I personally have several reasons to doubt that Jeyne and Jon will meet. Tycho will not bring Jeyne to Castle Black. And without Jon and Jeyne meeting, there remains noone to confirm that *Arya* is fake. Unless.... unless by coincidence, she crosses paths with Rickon who IMO has likely been brought to Last Hearth (and contact was established at Winterfell beween Mors Umber and Tycho). Rickon may have been only 3 when he last saw his sister, but might have some memories and other, more wargish ways of knowing she is not really Arya.

So, assuming the ruse continues, fake Arya is not revealed soon: Littlefinger can tell Sansa that Arya has been brought to safety by the Iron Bank, which does not influence his relationship with Sansa. If fake Arya IS revealed very soon (before the Vale arrives in the North) his position is much weaker but not impossible as not many people know (he believes) that it was he who provided the fake. The reveal of fake Arya would serve mostly to weaken the Boltons as it would strip away the legitimacy obtained via the marriage. 

As already mentioned I think the signs point to the Vale coming into this on the side of the Boltons, not against them (at first). It is not going to be a case of Sansa being a driving force in convincing the Vale to defend her sister against her torturers. Instead, likely the story will be that Arya did not escape but was kidnapped by Theon, (who most people already believe was responsible for destroying Winterfell) and a group of wildlings, (who have traditionally been enemies of the North). Sansa could easily come to see herself as righteous as she joins the Boltons cause. She will need to cut through a dense prickly thicket of lies to see what is really going on and she does not yet have very many ways to cut through all the lies.

[Hugorfonics]

1 hour ago, Hippocras said:

Yes, Sansa might have learned the Lannisters sent "Arya" North to marry Ramsay but after all she never knew what happened to the real Arya and finding out she had been a Lannister prisoner the whole time would not be all that inconsistent with the information Sansa has. The detail that Littlefinger "found" a Northern girl to send to the North is something that noone is supposed to know about and that Littlefinger had reason to believe the Lannisters would never tell - he did not count on Jaime telling Brienne. The Lannisters and Littlefinger himself are supposed to be the only ones who know or would ever know that fArya is Jeyne.

Word. In fact Jaime had his hands full (hand full, with his other hand) when Petyr found Arya, so he doesn't even know the name Poole, let alone Petyrs ploy. Honestly Bolton probably doesn't know it was Petyr either. 

Cersei... doesnt. She does know Petyr took control of Jeyne, but the fact thay shes Arya is lost on sweet Cersei. She must know Aryas a fake though and since shes got such a wonderful relationship with Sansa shed say and do anything to hurt her, but really the likelihood of Cersei finding out is small.

Speaking of small, Mr. Sansa Stark totally knows Petyr is responsible for fArya. This could be Petyrs demise. Joffreys knife, the pigeon pie, kidnapping his wife, its positively a Cersei/Sansa friendship. If Tyrion wants to convince his wife shes better off not as Littlefingers daughter, this is some stellar ammo.

 

Granted Sansa probably doesnt know the groove that makes Rams Rams, even if she heard the stories they could be dismissed as just stories. Roose and the RW could also be dismissed, but that takes some serious overshadowing. Manderly and Dustin can overlook it because the sword in their face cant, but Sansas safe from them and not an idiot. Roose oversaw the death of their mother and brother, how could Sansa not be worried (for lack of a better word) or at least anxious to see one member of her dead fam.

 

Im in awe of LF. However I really try to run from any conspiracy theory that doesnt involve him or the spider yet there they are in a pizzeria basement. I mean I knew Bloodraven had propaganda on lock, but damn lol. Blackfyres grumkins and snarks arent the deepstate. 

Yea his fam had connections to the free city but hes not the Trident, hes the mockingbird. He plays them off each other, not by amassing the sublime strength of Braavos. The facts that he excels in assassinations and money handling is a coincidence, or a call back, but I dont think anything more then that. 

Nor do I see the ironbank in cahoots with the faceless, as the bank is just a bunch of rich dudes who're descended from slaves and the faceless guild is way older then those slaves and only went to Braavos because thats the best hiding spot. 

Having said that, fArya introducing herself as Arya to whatever face is on top of Mercy would be priceless 

[Hippocras]

15 hours ago, Springwatch said:

Obviously Arya doesn't want Lady harmed - but without Arya's rule-breaking, Lady would still be alive. So Sansa feels angry about that, which is 100% a normal reaction. But she also knows Robert passed sentence, Cersei asked for it, and Ned swung the sword. So does Arya. I don't think there'll be any conflict about this issue at all.

I agree, or at least only minor family decisions sort of conflict but not the hatred kind. I think their distrust in each other might lead to them not telling each other as much as they should, hiding things that are important for understanding the full picture. But I agree they both understand deep down that Arya's role in Lady's death and Sansa telling Cersei of Ned's plan to leave KL (which resulted in his capture and death) - both of those things were unintentional. Mistakes. But because they were big mistakes with big consequences, the fact remains they are unlikely to be entirely open with each other even as they come together on the larger goals.

 

1 hour ago, Hugorfonics said:

Word. In fact Jaime had his hands full (hand full, with his other hand) when Petyr found Arya, so he doesn't even know the name Poole, let alone Petyrs ploy. Honestly Bolton probably doesn't know it was Petyr either. 

Lannisters and Boltons are all perfectly aware that their Arya is fake and was *found* by Littlefinger, but it is true that none of them seem to know or care who exactly she is. However she was tested by various characters on her knowledge of Winterfell and the Starks so the pieces will fall into place that this is a girl who knows enough to pass the tests. In other words she grew up there. Also, Cersei did know about Jeyne as she was removed from Sansa's presence at Cersei's request, by Littlefinger. Jeyne was seen with Sansa in several very public settings such as the feasts at Winterfell and at the Hand's tourney.

As for Jaime, he knows the Arya sent North is fake and tells Brienne that, but is unlikely to have the slightest idea who she is. So even if word might reach Sansa that the "Arya" who married Ramsay is fake, she can only guess who she is if she finds out it was Littlefinger who provided her. But even then, Littlefinger owns brothels and has hundreds of girls he could have arranged to send North so that would not be a particularly strong clue to her. Unless she learns that the fake Arya passed all tests about Winterfell she is unlikely to piece together Littlefinger's role and that the fake Arya is Jeyne.

So as far as Sansa finding out about Jeyne, I would say the most plausible way for that to happen would be if she finds out where Jeyne was hiding all that time, and meets someone who can fill in Jeyne's story. It does after all seem likely that Littlefinger was hiding her in the Vale.

 

2 hours ago, Hugorfonics said:

Granted Sansa probably doesnt know the groove that makes Rams Rams, even if she heard the stories they could be dismissed as just stories. Roose and the RW could also be dismissed, but that takes some serious overshadowing. Manderly and Dustin can overlook it because the sword in their face cant, but Sansas safe from them and not an idiot. Roose oversaw the death of their mother and brother, how could Sansa not be worried (for lack of a better word) or at least anxious to see one member of her dead fam.

I think Sansa is indeed likely to know about the Red Wedding and has of course good reason to suspect the Boltons were involved. However it depends who exactly is on the other side of a given dispute whether that is what governs her decisions and even then, she is not yet in a position where her decisions and feelings about things matter all that much. She is still a pawn. Littlefinger is teaching her to use anything and everything about a person to advantage and, if you don't like someone, to get rid of them at the right moment, not before. It is not Sansa who will decide to ally with the Boltons of course, it is Littlefinger along with his Vale opponents (Lords Declarant) most of whom have Frey and Bolton ties. For LF it would be a convenient way to resolve any remaining opposition to his rule in the Vale to send them to the North, while also maintaining his good relations with the current occupants of the Iron Throne. Basically Littlefinger plans to change sides in the North if and when the Iron Throne changes hands.

So apart from the Red Wedding, the brewing conflict in the North can be seen to those in the Vale, including Sansa, as a wildling invasion with Theon Turncloak, arson of Winterfell as their ally. Sansa may not like the Boltons, but doesn't have much reason as things stand to see wildlings and the person said to have killed her brothers as preferable.

[Springwatch]

9 hours ago, Hugorfonics said:

Word. In fact Jaime had his hands full (hand full, with his other hand) when Petyr found Arya, so he doesn't even know the name Poole, let alone Petyrs ploy. Honestly Bolton probably doesn't know it was Petyr either. 

Cersei... doesnt. She does know Petyr took control of Jeyne, but the fact thay shes Arya is lost on sweet Cersei. She must know Aryas a fake though and since shes got such a wonderful relationship with Sansa shed say and do anything to hurt her, but really the likelihood of Cersei finding out is small.

Maybe Cersei knew - I think it's more likely than not. I can imagine the family conference, arguing over who's to blame for the loss of Arya, and then the decision to find 'some skinny northern girl' - and Cersei remembers that girl she threw under the bus, and thinks, 'No problem, I'll get her back.' Because that's exactly what she thought about Falyse...

9 hours ago, Hugorfonics said:

Speaking of small, Mr. Sansa Stark totally knows Petyr is responsible for fArya. This could be Petyrs demise. Joffreys knife, the pigeon pie, kidnapping his wife, its positively a Cersei/Sansa friendship. If Tyrion wants to convince his wife shes better off not as Littlefingers daughter, this is some stellar ammo.

It is! But of course Sansa is already dealing with the deaths of her family by Lannisters, so this new revelation might just make her trust issues implode.

[Springwatch]

7 hours ago, Hippocras said:

I agree, or at least only minor family decisions sort of conflict but not the hatred kind. I think their distrust in each other might lead to them not telling each other as much as they should, hiding things that are important for understanding the full picture. But I agree they both understand deep down that Arya's role in Lady's death and Sansa telling Cersei of Ned's plan to leave KL (which resulted in his capture and death) - both of those things were unintentional. Mistakes. But because they were big mistakes with big consequences, the fact remains they are unlikely to be entirely open with each other even as they come together on the larger goals.

Arya's going to have problems trusting Sansa. She already thinks Sansa is an idiot for falling in love with Joffrey and Cersei. Now she's got to process Sansa's apparently willing marriage to Tyrion (why did she do it? next best thing to queen?).  And currently Sansa is playing LF's loving daughter, and being pretty convincing about it. And how to tell her everything that's happened, when Sansa's going to be shocked by just about everything?

7 hours ago, Hippocras said:

But I agree they both understand deep down that Arya's role in Lady's death and Sansa telling Cersei of Ned's plan to leave KL (which resulted in his capture and death)

Noooooo! If you're short of something to do for these next several hours, read some of these threads.

[Mystical]

1 hour ago, Springwatch said:

Now she's got to process Sansa's apparently willing marriage to Tyrion (why did she do it? next best thing to queen?).

If Arya actually thinks that (and how would being Tyrion's wife be the next best thing to queenship considering it's Tyrion...ugly dwarf that he is), she really isn't as as sharp as some people claim.

[Hippocras]

12 hours ago, Mystical said:

If Arya actually thinks that (and how would being Tyrion's wife be the next best thing to queenship considering it's Tyrion...ugly dwarf that he is), she really isn't as as sharp as some people claim.

I tend to agree. Noone is likely to think Sansa married Tyrion willingly. Any resentment Sansa faces will stem from her infatuation with Joffrey and with the idea of becoming queen, an infatuation which continued long past the moment where she should have been able to see how awful Joffrey and her idol Cersei were. It is that early lapse in judgement that will lead to many in her family and beyond questioning her judgement and therefore her trustworthiness. She is going to have some ground to make up and a great deal to prove.

Tyrion is still a bit of a problem for her though, regardless, because she is still officially married to him. He is alive and the marriage has not been annulled. As such the general practice and belief is that anything that was hers now belongs to Tyrion. So they can't give her Winterfell or any other position of power without, in their minds, giving it to Tyrion. Noone in the North or the Vale wants that. Sansa's power in the North, therefore, will only come from backing someone else in her family, not in fighting in her own name. Meanwhile Littlefinger continues to plot to get Tyrion killed, but may still find a way to formally annul the marriage since very obviously her being married is a significant obstacle in his plans.

  

14 hours ago, Springwatch said:

Noooooo!

Don't know what you want me to get from that. The basic fact is that Sansa was the one who told Cersei that Ned was planning to leave KL. She told Cersei because she was upset about leaving. Obviously she did not do it out of malice, she simply put trust in Cersei which she should not have done, because she did not have all the facts. If Sansa had not told Cersei, Ned and family would have had time to leave the city before the plan being known. So it is not about how many guards Ned had left, but about the plan being known in the first place. It was poor judgement. Frankly very understandable in a pre-teen and I do not blame her for it. The point is she will need to prove to her family that she no longer suffers from the same pre-teen delusions.

[Springwatch]

20 hours ago, Mystical said:

If Arya actually thinks that (and how would being Tyrion's wife be the next best thing to queenship considering it's Tyrion...ugly dwarf that he is), she really isn't as as sharp as some people claim.

She isn't. She makes mistakes like anybody else, but she is under training to look beyond appearances - so she needs to use that and not leap straight to, stupid, stupid, stupid.

7 hours ago, Hippocras said:

I tend to agree. Noone is likely to think Sansa married Tyrion willingly. Any resentment Sansa faces will stem from her infatuation with Joffrey and with the idea of becoming queen, an infatuation which continued long past the moment where she should have been able to see how awful Joffrey and her idol Cersei were. It is that early lapse in judgement that will lead to many in her family and beyond questioning her judgement and therefore her trustworthiness. She is going to have some ground to make up and a great deal to prove.

Yep. On the other hand, Arya is in a death cult, which doesn't inspire trust either. But the point is the sisters have never understood each other, so can't put limits on what the other might do, e.g gold-digger or crazy assassin.

7 hours ago, Hippocras said:

Tyrion is still a bit of a problem for her though, regardless, because she is still officially married to him. He is alive and the marriage has not been annulled. As such the general practice and belief is that anything that was hers now belongs to Tyrion. So they can't give her Winterfell or any other position of power without, in their minds, giving it to Tyrion. Noone in the North or the Vale wants that. Sansa's power in the North, therefore, will only come from backing someone else in her family, not in fighting in her own name. Meanwhile Littlefinger continues to plot to get Tyrion killed, but may still find a way to formally annul the marriage since very obviously her being married is a significant obstacle in his plans.

LF has a problem - people he expected to be dead are not dead. Until they are, he'll have to keep Sansa locked down and  ignorant - she might stuck in the Vale a long time (or until the next disaster arrives anyway).

7 hours ago, Hippocras said:

 Don't know what you want me to get from that. The basic fact is that Sansa was the one who told Cersei that Ned was planning to leave KL. She told Cersei because she was upset about leaving. Obviously she did not do it out of malice, she simply put trust in Cersei which she should not have done, because she did not have all the facts. If Sansa had not told Cersei, Ned and family would have had time to leave the city before the plan being known. So it is not about how many guards Ned had left, but about the plan being known in the first place. It was poor judgement. Frankly very understandable in a pre-teen and I do not blame her for it. The point is she will need to prove to her family that she no longer suffers from the same pre-teen delusions.

It's a good topic - there's about thirty pages of discussion about it that I know of.

Ned wasn't leaving KL. He was staying to become regent until Stannis arrived to take the throne. So Sansa would have thought she was staying with him.

Sansa was not in the chain of events that led to the fall of Ned. She was present, but take Sansa away, and nothing changes.

She did show maximal poor judgment, but hey, she was eleven, she was a warg who lost her wolf, and she was crazy in love with Joffrey and Cersei and the whole KL scene.

[Hippocras]

5 hours ago, Springwatch said:

 

Sansa was not in the chain of events that led to the fall of Ned. She was present, but take Sansa away, and nothing changes.

 

That is simply no true. You might need a  re-read!

Ned told her she was leaving and he would find someone else other than Joffrey for her. She was upset because she still wanted Joffrey and so ran to Cersei and told hr Ned planned to send her away, which is precisely how Cersei knew.

"On the third day after sneaking out to tell Queen Cersei of her father’s plans to send her away, Sansa is summoned from her house arrest."

A Game of Thrones-Chapter 51 - A Wiki of Ice and Fire (westeros.org)

oh and in her previous chapter it was Sansa who finally made Ned understand Joffrey was not Robert's son. I don't claim that Sansa's actions were the only thing that led to Ned's downfall. Of course him telling Cersei he knew was a deadly mistake bound to get hm killed eventually. But the attack on the household happened when it did because Sansa told Cersei they were being sent away.

And even if we can't agree on this, it really doesn't matter because clearly Sansa made mistakes, which ultimately is the point here.