[spoilers]Inside Winterfell DWD WOW - Northern Conspiracy

[Springwatch]

5 hours ago, Hippocras said:

oh and in her previous chapter it was Sansa who finally made Ned understand Joffrey was not Robert's son.

 Bullseye! Champion, splendid, terrific. You are the first with a sustainable explanation as to how Sansa contributed to the fall of Ned. I am very happy. 

Guilt doesn't come into it of course, or needing to rebuild trust or anything like that.

5 hours ago, Hippocras said:

That is simply no true. You might need a  re-read!

I've read it a lot more than you, obviously (not very gracious of you not to dispose of the error about Ned leaving. I guess the show treated the events differently to the books.)

5 hours ago, Hippocras said:

Ned told her she was leaving and he would find someone else other than Joffrey for her. She was upset because she still wanted Joffrey and so ran to Cersei and told hr Ned planned to send her away, which is precisely how Cersei knew.

Ned told half his plans to Cersei, and the rest to Littlefinger. The timing is controlled solely by the death of Robert. That gives you the fall of Ned.

The girls leaving was not meant to be a secret. We know this because Arya found cartloads of their luggage in the stables. So the luggage had been trundling across the courtyard under the eyes of the watchers on the walls. It also shows the Starks had no idea of it being 'an escape' - they thought they would roll slowly out of the open gates and move freely down to the docks. That is not going to happen on the day of the coup. Even Arya knows the gates will be shut - free movement for Stark soldiers before an attack would just not be allowed.

Also, the Red Keep is full of spies. It's the one thing that all characters who think on it agree on. It's confirmed about a million times. Cersei has much better information, much earlier than what Sansa can give her. What does Sansa know anyway?

 

5 hours ago, Hippocras said:

But the attack on the household happened when it did because Sansa told Cersei they were being sent away.

When Robert dies, Cersei must throw down Ned before he takes the regency.

5 hours ago, Hippocras said:

And even if we can't agree on this, it really doesn't matter because clearly Sansa made mistakes, which ultimately is the point here.

She did. Not a traitor though.

[Hippocras]

2 hours ago, Springwatch said:

 

This is proving to be a pretty big distraction from the thread topic. I don't know why you seem to be trying to make a case that Sansa is sparkly clean and has made no mistakes because it simply is not true, but I really am not interested in spending hours debating it. I though of rebutting what you said above, because you are missing key details, but this is not the millionth thread about Sansa. Let's get back to predictions of what will happen shall we?

None of my predictions of course will be predicated on the idea that Sansa is lady innocent and everyone else is in the wrong, but if you really think that is the case feel free to make Winds of Winter Northern events predictions based on your belief.

As far as I am concerned, Sansa was naive and blinkered, and made decisions because of it that hurt her family (and yes, telling Cersei did hurt her family, but I never said she was a traitor). Her saying things like that Arya should have been killed instead of Lady, and being more concerned about her dress than the murder of an innocent little boy....those sorts of things will most certainly result in legitimate distrust on the part of her family when they meet again.

Will she have reasons of her own to distrust the others? No doubt. Why are we in conflict over this? I don't get it. It is obvious that there will be trust issues. What matters for this thread is predictions on how they will deal with them.

[MissM]

On 4/16/2021 at 12:32 PM, Hugorfonics said:

Nor do I see the ironbank in cahoots with the faceless, as the bank is just a bunch of rich dudes who're descended from slaves and the faceless guild is way older then those slaves and only went to Braavos because thats the best hiding spot. 

Having said that, fArya introducing herself as Arya to whatever face is on top of Mercy would be priceless 

The Iron Bank & Faceless Men are something worth exploring in a deeper way.

Ask yourself a few questions...

These "rich dudes" who are actually called the 26 appointed Keyholders of the Iron Bank are descendants of which slaves? The ones that escaped Valyria.

Where do the Faceless Men keep all their wealth? They live like monks as far as we see.

Where do the Iron Bank keep their wealth? In subterranean vaults behind iron door that opens with an ornate key.

Where is the Hall of Faces located? 

Quote

One passage was closed off by a heavy iron door. The priest hung the lantern from a hook, slipped a hand inside his robe, and produced an ornate key. - A Dance with Dragons - The Ugly Little Girl

An special key that opens an iron door of a subterranean vault. Hmm.

The fact that Arya's passage into Braavos and the House of Black and White was via an iron coin gives me a side-eye moment.

Tycho Nestiros is an interesting character from the Iron Bank. He describes his service in this way to Jon:

Quote

Tycho bowed his head. “We who serve the Iron Bank face death full as often as you who serve the Iron Throne.”

What is he implying here? Equating death as part of the job of an Iron Banker is interesting. As we can see an example in Fire & Blood, the Rogare Bank rivaled the Iron Bank in size after the first Dance of Dragons. The dude who ran the Rogare Bank Lysandro the Magnificent and his influential brother (who lived in Westeros as Prince consort of Dorne) both died 1 day apart under suspicious circumstances. People talked that it was the Faceless Men. House Rogare and their Bank (both in permanent decline) was no longer a threat or rival to Iron Bank.

The fact the Sealord of Braavos can threaten the use of the Faceless Men with ease and his influence on the Iron Bank cannot be overlooked:

Quote

At the Sealord’s urging, the Iron Bank of Braavos forgave the entire remaining principal of its loan to the Iron Throne. At a stroke, the Crown’s debt had been cut in half. - Fire & Blood

The Kindly Man's interest in Arya's news of the Sealord being sick/dying and the person being rumored most likely to replace him... another important note to pop up in Arya's narrative that may be integral in later chapters. Especially if her next apprenticeship/training sees her placed among the elites of Braavos during a changing of power.

I agree completely that fArya will make her way to Braavos and meet Arya but it won't be as Mercy.

GRRM confirmed:

Quote

Mercy’s identity is out the window. 

“And by gone I mean that following that chapter Mercy can no longer have that identity obviously.”

I think fArya and Arya will cross paths when Arya is in the vicinity of the Iron Bank or the Palace of Truth (where elections take place) or the Sealord's Palace.  These are new locations yet to be explored but according to Jonathan Roberts (who read a set of TWOW Arya chapters back in 2012) he confirmed there are new locations Arya will be going to in TWOW. An opportune moment may come during the 10-day celebration that happens in Braavos once a year:

Quote

The anniversary of the Uncloaking is celebrated every year in Braavos with ten days of feasting and masked revelry—a festival like none other in all the known world, culminating at midnight on the tenth day, when the Titan roars and tens of thousands of revelers and celebrants remove their masks as one. - The World of Ice and Fire

Both Arya and Jeyne would have real masks to remove in this poignant moment.

[Hippocras]

37 minutes ago, MissM said:

I think fArya and Arya will cross paths when Arya is in the vicinity of the Iron Bank or the Palace of Truth (where elections take place) or the Sealord's Palace.  These are new locations yet to be explored but according to Jonathan Roberts (who read a set of TWOW Arya chapters back in 2012) he confirmed there are new locations Arya will be going to in TWOW. An opportune moment may come during the 10-day celebration that happens in Braavos once a year:

Interesting. New locations as in ones that no character has been before, or just new for Arya?

I have seen quite a few people predict that Arya will be leaving Braavos pretty much immediately but that feels wrong to me. She may not be Mercy anymore but I doubt she is done with the FM. More likely she will lose another "part" of her as a consequence for her rogue killing but that will just connect her more to her warging. She will lose her hearing next would be my guess but as well as learning to lip read and really SEE as Syrio also taught her, she will have access to the ears of other creatures if she wants them (as with the cat when she was blind).

After mastering deafness or some other form of partial loss of self  I can very well see her being placed among the Braavosi elite as you suggest. It makes sense as it would put her in place to encounter fArya, to shed some light on Dany's red door, and probably also to meet the Frey(s) who are connected to Braavos (Alesander, Bradamar). She's pretty much the only character who can give us some insight on the Iron Bank, but needs to be in the right place to do that.

[Springwatch]

 

3 hours ago, Hippocras said:

This is proving to be a pretty big distraction from the thread topic. I don't know why you seem to be trying to make a case that Sansa is sparkly clean and has made no mistakes because it simply is not true,

I said Sansa made mistakes and showed poor judgment.... nevermind, the relevance of AGOT is that the sisters parted in a state of trauma and misunderstanding, but we expect them to come together again, because of all the big deal about the lone wolf dying, but a pack survives. It makes a big difference to the north if they are fighting or not. So what issues have they got to work through? Death of Lady, death of Mycah, Joffrey, Cersei, Faceless Men, Littlefinger - all fine and doable. Death of Ned - absolutely not, it's a deal breaker. So it's a good thing Sansa was out of that.

3 hours ago, Hippocras said:

but I really am not interested in spending hours debating it. I though of rebutting what you said above, because you are missing key details,

My field of interest, not yours, understood.

I did try not to swamp the thread, you know! I will be delighted to hear the key details when the topic comes up again.

3 hours ago, Hippocras said:

Will she have reasons of her own to distrust the others? No doubt. Why are we in conflict over this? I don't get it. It is obvious that there will be trust issues. What matters for this thread is predictions on how they will deal with them.

See, we can agree.

[Hugorfonics]

On 4/16/2021 at 5:03 PM, Springwatch said:

Maybe Cersei knew - I think it's more likely than not. I can imagine the family conference, arguing over who's to blame for the loss of Arya, and then the decision to find 'some skinny northern girl' - and Cersei remembers that girl she threw under the bus, and thinks, 'No problem, I'll get her back.' 

Cersei in agot was surprised Jeyne is rooming with Sansa. LF happily takes control of her. Cersei in acok tells Tyrion the word is Arya is theirs but in reality shes m.i.a. Tywin in asos, after dismissing Joff and Cersei, tells Tyrion that LF "found" Arya. Tyrions obviously peeved but his dad said it was a need to know thing, just like the recent RW.

On 4/16/2021 at 5:03 PM, Springwatch said:

It is! But of course Sansa is already dealing with the deaths of her family by Lannisters, so this new revelation might just make her trust issues implode.

More then already?

On 4/16/2021 at 9:53 AM, Hippocras said:

Also, Cersei did know about Jeyne as she was removed from Sansa's presence at Cersei's request, by Littlefinger

Word. But she doesnt know LF found Arya

On 4/16/2021 at 9:53 AM, Hippocras said:

So even if word might reach Sansa that the "Arya" who married Ramsay is fake, she can only guess who she is if she finds out it was Littlefinger who provided her.

For sure, which would be a wild guess. Jeyne has no reason to know it was Petyr who set her up.

On 4/16/2021 at 9:53 AM, Hippocras said:

So as far as Sansa finding out about Jeyne, I would say the most plausible way for that to happen would be if she finds out where Jeyne was hiding all that time, and meets someone who can fill in Jeyne's story

Probably her husband. Who else knows besides Petyr and Tywin? And one of ems dead.

On 4/16/2021 at 9:53 AM, Hippocras said:

It does after all seem likely that Littlefinger was hiding her in the Vale.

Nah she was in KL, probably the one he hid Cat in. Jaime sees Jeyne leaving KL as he enters it, plus Lysa would never have allowed that anyway

On 4/16/2021 at 9:53 AM, Hippocras said:

I think Sansa is indeed likely to know about the Red Wedding and has of course good reason to suspect the Boltons were involved.

She certainly knows of the RW, Tyrion was too uncomfortable to give her any details, but when Petyr was prancing on the curses of Harrenhal Sansa said, "so give it to lord Frey". So theres definitely some knowledge and animosity there.

Sansa was at court when Petyr became Lord of Harrenhal for his contributions at Blackwater. What contributions? Sansa couldn't see. So id be surprised if shes unable to connect the dots with the RW and Warden of the north, as the best contributions are often hidden. Even if it goes against her husbands, 2nd husband, subjects ties and even the Declarant with their paper swords.

I just cant see it, Frey is cursed in the eyes of gods and men, Id jump on the titanic before that ship. Also in a very real sense their army is depleted and stretched thin and the ones that arent plotting to murder their brothers and cousins are getting strung up by outlaws. Not even Cerseis KL looks upon them favorably. Frey is fucked, but uptown Frey? The ones in the snow surrounded by northerners and Stannis? Like, Id rather ally with that army in slavers bay, with the stilts and chains.

Granted Frey is not Bolton but the distinction is rapidly disappearing, not to mention Tommens LionStag flies above both camps, the same lionstag that has orders to arrest and bring to trial the suspected regicide fugitive, Sansa.

On 4/16/2021 at 9:53 AM, Hippocras said:

So apart from the Red Wedding, the brewing conflict in the North can be seen to those in the Vale, including Sansa, as a wildling invasion with Theon Turncloak, arson of Winterfell as their ally. Sansa may not like the Boltons, but doesn't have much reason as things stand to see wildlings and the person said to have killed her brothers as preferable

Ahh, always an uglier fish. This is cornerstone of asoiaf stuff, though its hard to be uglier then a weasel, wildlings and ironborn give em a run for their money. Not to mention its always fun to smack Stannis around. There are many roads to Winterfell 

 

I wanna get back to Jeyne and Pete. So agot, Cerseis practically like, "whos crying, jeyne? Why is this person alive?" To which LF, fucking creep he is, says ill take the young girl. Anyone not named Sansa could have said anything and busy Cersei would say fine. So whyd he do it? Creep? Doubtful, he only loves Cat and she isnt even Sansa. So just, why not? A northern acorn in the pocket. Ok. But Jeyne was "trained". When and how? Straight hooker? Doubtful, Spider has ears everywhere. So just rape by Petes agents in guise? Probably. So when? Presumably right off the bat, although I guess that doesnt matter

acok ends and Tywin and Petyr casually stroll into KL. Mid way asos, Tywins council reads the wolf pelt letter and leave sulking after Joff acts all Joffy. Tywin and his son remain so the conversation of Sansas rape can begin. Its an extravagant conversation involving 20 years from now usurping Boltons son by Petyrs Arya.

Ok, so when? Obviously good moves not giving Jeyne to Tyrion because he was destined to fall, so immediately after Blackwater? All the fine scholars of Westeros knew Robb was destined to fall after Blackwater. Even Dontos the agent told Sansa, "its ya claim honey", so I think its safe to assume Petyr gave Tywin Jeyne after BW, when Petyr was simultaneously prepping to kidnap Sansa.

Why?

After BW and before RW Petyr planted a northern seed, one with startling connections to his on going and very alive scheme, Sansa.

It cant be a coincidence, Petyr has long term plans for fArya that started most likely in acok although its possible but doubtful that it was in asos in between the 1st chapter and Petyr leaving to marry Lysa

[Hippocras]

@MissM @Hugorfonics

I think we should do an Arya timeline that integrates relevant statements by Tywin and Littlefinger, as well as fArya's timeline and the Iron Bank representative appearances. I think such a timeline might be very informative, but I do not have a ton of time for research as I have 2 small kids here constantly needing attention.

But I am genuinely curious how the appearance of Iron Bank characters maps with fake Arya's storyline etc.

[Hugorfonics]

5 hours ago, MissM said:

The Iron Bank & Faceless Men are something worth exploring in a deeper way.

Ask yourself a few questions...

These "rich dudes" who are actually called the 26 appointed Keyholders of the Iron Bank are descendants of which slaves? The ones that escaped Valyria.

So you think Braavos was founded, or created, by the Faceless?

5 hours ago, MissM said:

Where do the Faceless Men keep all their wealth? They live like monks as far as we see.

They are monks. In a sense, just with more swords, and faces. All men must serve.

But for sure, theres more at play here

5 hours ago, MissM said:

Where do the Iron Bank keep their wealth? In subterranean vaults behind iron door that opens with an ornate key.

Where is the Hall of Faces located? 

An special key that opens an iron door of a subterranean vault. Hmm.

The fact that Arya's passage into Braavos and the House of Black and White was via an iron coin gives me a side-eye moment.

Ok, so all three beaches of govt. Money, murder, municipality. One house? 

The coin was old, but yea, side eyed with an eyebrow raise... Also the captain, one would think a private citizen, that took the coin recognized it in like a second and got all solemn and accommodating to the orphan beggar, so thats pretty odd

5 hours ago, MissM said:

The Kindly Man's interest in Arya's news of the Sealord being sick/dying and the person being rumored most likely to replace him

ok but why? Do these 3 branches have checks and balances that the faceless want to diminish? How are they not all 3 branches, if they are the keyholders and debt collectors. Shouldnt the Sealord live die and be created by the Kindly Mans master?

5 hours ago, MissM said:

An opportune moment may come during the 10-day celebration that happens in Braavos once a year:

Both Arya and Jeyne would have real masks to remove in this poignant moment.

That sounds really cool and probable.

Which one will be wearing the horseface?

[Hippocras]

2 hours ago, Springwatch said:

See, we can agree.

It seems!

Basically I am just exhausted by the tendency for any mention of Sansa on the forums to turn into some kind of war with, IMO those who love Sansa being just as responsible as the hater trolls. It is one reason I basically didn't post here for 5 years! So sorry if that is not what you were doing. A predictions thread can not and should not turn into a defense/assault of everything Sansa. She's just as grey as anyone else.

[Springwatch]

29 minutes ago, Hippocras said:

It seems!

Basically I am just exhausted by the tendency for any mention of Sansa on the forums to turn into some kind of war with, IMO those who love Sansa being just as responsible as the hater trolls. It is one reason I basically didn't post here for 5 years! So sorry if that is not what you were doing. A predictions thread can not and should not turn into a defense/assault of everything Sansa. She's just as grey as anyone else.

Lot of good discussions back then - I thought your name was familiar. It's mostly Dany now in the troll wars, but I will try not to drive you away for another five years.

[Hugorfonics]

On 4/18/2021 at 11:56 AM, Hippocras said:

@MissM @Hugorfonics

I think we should do an Arya timeline that integrates relevant statements by Tywin and Littlefinger, as well as fArya's timeline and the Iron Bank representative appearances. I think such a timeline might be very informative, but I do not have a ton of time for research as I have 2 small kids here constantly needing attention.

But I am genuinely curious how the appearance of Iron Bank characters maps with fake Arya's storyline etc.

Timeline huh? Ok... I dont have any kids but im busyish. And lazy lol. So idk how far im gonna go with this but thats why god made the edit button, or even a new post...

Alright, did some digging, came back with something. 

Week 1. The curtains rise on the northern theater. 

Ight, now since Balon stumbled off screen its hard to pin point an exact date in the illusory calendar, but since we arent dealing with the iron island theater its irrelevant. What is relevant is on day 1 of Hugors calendar the news reached over seas that the Reaver is dead, and all claimants of the seastone leave the north. (Robb reads this news the day before he was murdered)

Which brings us to the 2nd day, the RW. Day 1 was more like an intro, the play is now cast with Roose as lead and Frey vs Manderly as a distracting subplot. 

The next five days, give or take whatever, further  actors and more plots will be put into place, before act 1 starts and the stage is set, at the end of the week, give or take whatever.

-Joffrey has grown awful antagonistic and while Tywin plans a lesson, Tyrion expects death. His wife, consumed with grief, is in actuality planning her escape. Mere days after Balon fell from the bridge, Sansa is climbing down a secret ladder and into the theater.

-fArya, a few days after the king was murdered approaches Jaime and Steelshanks and talks of old times, oh the fun on the kingsroad! After assuring Jaime that fun times were had she trots up north with Steelshanks into our lead actress, or lead understudy actress

-Catelyns corpse wasnt good at holding up the dart board, and that smell! Shes thusly unceremoniously thrown like a fish into the river where it floated by a sleeping girl and a woken direwolf, before floating further and rising after some snow white shenanigans. (This is obviously more Riverland theater although Catelyn Starks name should appear in the northern program. Also idk when Beric kissed her, but Nymeria did kiss her days after Balon and Joffreys death, so I include Stonehearts appearance in the first week)

-Stannis cant burn his nephew, but theres this eagle up north thats calling like kindling. Stannis departs DS for the North days after said events, bringing the jurisdiction of the Iron Throne to the wall and the north

What a week! I thought I was busy. And although this week hasnt been fun for, well anybody, it really wasnt fun, just like the weeks before, for Theon. Enter left, the Prince. Roughly within one week of Victarion sailing to his brothers kingsmoot his castilian is hit with a poisoned arrow and Theon easily forces Moat Cailins surrender to Bolton, opening the flood gates to all actors, pros and amateurs alike

Enter left, Roose.

So yea, within a week the entire northern theater gets created, pretty much all actors are present and the stage is set. Wild stuff really. Never knew it till now, pretty sure im right tho.

Ill try to get back to this stuff laterish too. It is helpful to understand the theater better.

Eta. Ah damn, forgot Jon. Days before Robb was murdered he signed his will, legitimizing Jon. Although far from concrete itd be a fair assumption to conclude that Robbs lords who were to assist in the battle of MC arrived at the Neck within the week of Victarions departure of MC and Rooses entrance 

[Hippocras]

@Hugorfonics Thanks for getting it started. I will help when I get a moment. There is a chart somewhere around here on westeros.org that someone made a while back that tries to put all the events of the series in chronological order (with dates!). It should be possible to pull fake Arya stuff and Iron Bank stuff from that if whoever made it remembered to include those details. Anyway Arya's timeline is certainly all there and more or less correct.

What I think we need to understand is the relationship between Arya arriving in Braavos, or before that Arya being identified by Jaqen H'ghar at Harrenhal, or a bit later Arya being identified by the BWB (ie. people who knew who she was and where she was) and any King's Landing character (Tywin, Littlefinger, Cersei, Tyrion etc.) claiming to have Arya. Did they actually think they really had her in any of those moments only for her to slip away or were they bluffing or speaking of Jeyne each time?

Next, once Arya was known by Braavosi to be in Braavos, how long did it take for Iron Bank representatives to start showing up? Did they start arriving in Westeros before or after the fake Arya stunt began?

If we focus on these relationships for a bit, a picture may (or may not) emerge of the Iron Bank's interest in fake Arya. Possibly there is no connection at all between these things and the Iron Bank is genuinely independent from the Faceless Men but if they do seem to chart together that will matter for how things play out in the North IMO.

 

Most Precise ASOIAF Timeline in Existence - General (ASoIaF) - A Forum of Ice and Fire - A Song of Ice and Fire & Game of Thrones (westeros.org)

[Hugorfonics]

16 hours ago, Hippocras said:

@Hugorfonics Thanks for getting it started. I will help when I get a moment. There is a chart somewhere around here on westeros.org that someone made a while back that tries to put all the events of the series in chronological order (with dates!). It should be possible to pull fake Arya stuff and Iron Bank stuff from that if whoever made it remembered to include those details. Anyway Arya's timeline is certainly all there and more or less correct.

What I think we need to understand is the relationship between Arya arriving in Braavos, or before that Arya being identified by Jaqen H'ghar at Harrenhal, or a bit later Arya being identified by the BWB (ie. people who knew who she was and where she was) and any King's Landing character (Tywin, Littlefinger, Cersei, Tyrion etc.) claiming to have Arya. Did they actually think they really had her in any of those moments only for her to slip away or were they bluffing or speaking of Jeyne each time?

Next, once Arya was known by Braavosi to be in Braavos, how long did it take for Iron Bank representatives to start showing up? Did they start arriving in Westeros before or after the fake Arya stunt began?

If we focus on these relationships for a bit, a picture may (or may not) emerge of the Iron Bank's interest in fake Arya. Possibly there is no connection at all between these things and the Iron Bank is genuinely independent from the Faceless Men but if they do seem to chart together that will matter for how things play out in the North IMO.

 

Most Precise ASOIAF Timeline in Existence - General (ASoIaF) - A Forum of Ice and Fire - A Song of Ice and Fire & Game of Thrones (westeros.org)

Huh, so I was wrong. Especially about day 1. I got confused with the news Balon Greyjoy is dead and Theon Greyjoy is captured. Apparently Im also wrong about the month gaps between the three kings death, but I dont think so. Tyrions thoughts from the rw to the pw reads like days, also I dont think the kingsmoot was drawn out because why would any Greyjoy want that? And I think that Theon opened the gates of MC fairly quickly.

But, whatevs

16 hours ago, Hippocras said:

Did they actually think they really had her in any of those moments only for her to slip away or were they bluffing or speaking of Jeyne each time?

They knew they never had Arya

Quote

Tyrion agreed, "yet you still hold his daughters, don't you? I saw the older girl out in the yard with Joffrey."

"Sansa," the queen said. "I've given it out that I have the younger brat as well, but it's a lie. I sent Meryn Trant to take her in hand when Robert died, but her wretched dancing master interfered and the girl fled. No one has seen her since. Likely she's dead. A great many people died that day."

The timeline doesnt have much to say about the banker in kl, but Ceresi put all debts on hold around the time of the Declarant. 

That takes time from week 1 (although I guess its not within a week more or less though I still kinda think it is {time difference between Robb legitimizing Jon, cuz king balon had "no heir", and RWeve?} but we can call it month 1 give or take), when Aryas sleeping by her hound. First Lysa needs to die, then LF needs to not leave/vale lords assemble, so id say its month 3 or 4.

So fArya, yea tots. Shes up north by then, maybe even married. But rArya, she was doing her Egg thing for a bit, for the sake of fuck it lets call it a couple months, while the trip to Braavos could be a month or two, so ok. 

So yea, the banker came to kl after arya was screaming her name and Jeyne was married and the NT was in full swing. 

I just dont see it, one of the main rules of assassins is you cant kill people you know, and r/farya appear to know everybody. Also the Iron Bank is scary but there plans appear to be coax Cersei and then hand her opponent a blank check. Which I dont think is a very good plan because Stannis isnt a good plan. 

[Hippocras]

On 4/21/2021 at 2:27 AM, Hugorfonics said:

They knew they never had Arya

I am certain that Tyrion never thought he had her, even when bluffing that he did. But I am not sure about Tywin. I don't know exactly in which chapter Tywin mentioned Arya but need to figure out when that was relative to the other things that were going on.

Once Tywin arrived in KL he was not including Tyrion or Cersei in his plans, and he was writing and receiving hundreds of letters, including to Roose Bolton at Harrenhal. I therefore consider it to be at least possible that Arya's identity was guessed late during her time at Harrenhal, but that she escaped from there in a move that Roose was not expecting. We do know that Roose didn't care one bit what would happen to her once he left which could mean nothing, or could mean he knew very well many at Harrenhal wanted her dead and that suited him quite well.

I have not had much time, but what does seem clear is that the Iron Bank rep appeared in King's Landing rather soon after Arya arrived in Braavos but with enough time for people in Braavos to be informed that she was there and enough time for a boat to then get from Braavos to KL. The timing of the Iron Bank rep is obviously most clearly related to Tywin's death, but because of the timing we can not conclude that Arya being there is irrelevant to them beginning to make their moves. In other words, the timing does not rule out collaboration between bankers and FM. It rather supports it.

[Hippocras]

On 4/21/2021 at 2:27 AM, Hugorfonics said:

I just dont see it, one of the main rules of assassins is you cant kill people you know, and r/farya appear to know everybody. Also the Iron Bank is scary but there plans appear to be coax Cersei and then hand her opponent a blank check. Which I dont think is a very good plan because Stannis isnt a good plan. 

The FM's interest in how they might eventually use Arya is non-specific. They don't need to have a plan yet to see her, or at least her face as useful. I don't think that is really the factor in establishing a link between the FM and IB. All we need to do is track if there seems to be information sharing going on. The timing suggests they do indeed share information.

As for Stannis, I rather doubt they are much counting on him to win. Rather their support of Stannis is about funding Lannister enemies because if their enemies are funded it will weaken them when they do eventually need to contend with someone who can actually get them out.

[Hugorfonics]

11 hours ago, Hippocras said:

I am certain that Tyrion never thought he had her, even when bluffing that he did. But I am not sure about Tywin. I don't know exactly in which chapter Tywin mentioned Arya but need to figure out when that was relative to the other things that were going on.

Month 1 of the Northern Theater

Quote

"I suppose you would have spared the boy and told Lord Frey you had no need of his allegiance? That would have driven the old fool right back into Stark's arms and won you another year of war. Explain to me why it is more noble to kill ten thousand men in battle than a dozen at dinner." When Tyrion had no reply to that, his father continued. "The price was cheap by any measure. The crown shall grant Riverrun to Ser Emmon Frey once the Blackfish yields. Lancel and Daven must marry Frey girls, Joy is to wed one of Lord Walder's natural sons when she's old enough, and Roose Bolton becomes Warden of the North and takes home Arya Stark."

"Arya Stark?" Tyrion cocked his head. "And Bolton? I might have known Frey would not have the stomach to act alone. But Arya . . . Varys and Ser Jacelyn searched for her for more than half a year. Arya Stark is surely dead."

"So was Renly, until the Blackwater."

"What does that mean?"

"Perhaps Littlefinger succeeded where you and Varys failed. Lord Bolton will wed the girl to his bastard son. We shall allow the Dreadfort to fight the ironborn for a few years, and see if he can bring Stark's other bannermen to heel. Come spring, all of them should be at the end of their strength and ready to bend the knee. The north will go to your son by Sansa Stark . . . if you ever find enough manhood in you to breed one. Lest you forget, it is not only Joffrey who must needs take a maidenhead."

I had not forgotten, though I'd hoped you had. "And when do you imagine Sansa will be at her most fertile?" Tyrion asked his father in tones that dripped acid. "Before or after I tell her how we murdered her mother and her brother?"

In between the magenta weddings. Which is right before Jaime seeing Jeyne leaving. 

Tywin clearly calls out the fugazi by referencing Renlys Ghost, Garlen. 

11 hours ago, Hippocras said:

Once Tywin arrived in KL he was not including Tyrion or Cersei in his plans, and he was writing and receiving hundreds of letters, including to Roose Bolton at Harrenhal. I therefore consider it to be at least possible that Arya's identity was guessed late during her time at Harrenhal, but that she escaped from there in a move that Roose was not expecting. We do know that Roose didn't care one bit what would happen to her once he left which could mean nothing, or could mean he knew very well many at Harrenhal wanted her dead and that suited him quite well.

It was rather strange when Roose pressed Theon in saying m'lord like a peasent and not my lord like a Nym. But really, I like to stay grounded in my theories and the simplest explanation imo is despite Lady Dustins hopes, Roose is not Bobby Fischer.

11 hours ago, Hippocras said:

I have not had much time, but what does seem clear is that the Iron Bank rep appeared in King's Landing rather soon after Arya arrived in Braavos but with enough time for people in Braavos to be informed that she was there and enough time for a boat to then get from Braavos to KL

Its probable, idk how clear it is though. Yes Arya screams her name to the Kindly Man soon after arriving but if Cersei never stalled on her payments the rep would have no cause to go west.

12 hours ago, Hippocras said:

The timing of the Iron Bank rep is obviously most clearly related to Tywin's death, but because of the timing we can not conclude that Arya being there is irrelevant to them beginning to make their moves. In other words, the timing does not rule out collaboration between bankers and FM. It rather supports it.

Im not following

12 hours ago, Hippocras said:

The FM's interest in how they might eventually use Arya is non-specific. They don't need to have a plan yet to see her, or at least her face as useful. I don't think that is really the factor in establishing a link between the FM and IB. All we need to do is track if there seems to be information sharing going on. The timing suggests they do indeed share information.

Idk I think its a more of a coincidence. 

That the FM take the Sealords life seriously is a strong sign imo that the faceless are not in charge of Braavos, unlike the bankers. 

12 hours ago, Hippocras said:

As for Stannis, I rather doubt they are much counting on him to win. Rather their support of Stannis is about funding Lannister enemies because if their enemies are funded it will weaken them when they do eventually need to contend with someone who can actually get them out.

Word, they can afford it I guess.

The most obvious combatant who could use a blank check is Aerys' daughter. But I think disrespectful Cersei is a step up from mad Dany. Sure she frees slaves but shes also the mother of dragons and I guess thats all the Keyholders see. Really the entirety of Essos is heading to see Dany in adwd, and despite the confusing timelime, especially now that its Dany, someone  shoulda made her an offer by now. 

[Hippocras]

6 hours ago, Hugorfonics said:

Tywin clearly calls out the fugazi by referencing Renlys Ghost, Garlen. 

Thanks for digging up the quote. That does indeed make it clear that Tywin was referring to fake Arya. Also, that Tyrion knows the Arya that married Ramsay was fake.

I think it is pretty clear actually that all of the Lannisters know she's a fake and the Boltons no doubt know as well.

6 hours ago, Hugorfonics said:

Im not following

I am not saying this counts as direct evidence that they collaborate and that this means the Iron Bank has designs in the North, I simply mean that there is no counter-evidence. If the Iron Bank representative had appeared earlier, before Arya arrived in Braavos, then it would count as evidence that the Iron Bank is completely uninterested in the North and is merely focused on the Lannisters. They may still be completely focused on the Lannisters and getting their money back as their only goal, but the possibility can not be excluded yet that they have some more complex schemes in play as well.

[Hugorfonics]

On 4/23/2021 at 2:56 AM, Hippocras said:

Thanks for digging up the quote. That does indeed make it clear that Tywin was referring to fake Arya. Also, that Tyrion knows the Arya that married Ramsay was fake.

I think it is pretty clear actually that all of the Lannisters know she's a fake and the Boltons no doubt know as well.

(Np, its a great chapter. One of the few times Tywins honest and we get a glimpse into his mind. Dudes savage)

Boltons knows, Lannisters lie is like a mantra for these guys. 

All Lannisters, and Boltons, knows shes fake but only Tyrion and Petyr know shes Jeyne.

On 4/23/2021 at 2:56 AM, Hippocras said:

I am not saying this counts as direct evidence that they collaborate and that this means the Iron Bank has designs in the North, I simply mean that there is no counter-evidence. If the Iron Bank representative had appeared earlier, before Arya arrived in Braavos, then it would count as evidence that the Iron Bank is completely uninterested in the North and is merely focused on the Lannisters. They may still be completely focused on the Lannisters and getting their money back as their only goal, but the possibility can not be excluded yet that they have some more complex schemes in play as well.

I suppose, but we can do this with any thing. Whats the counter evidence that grumkins in the woodpile didnt cause the RW?

Or when did the GC cancel their contract, before or after Arya was in Braavos? (Hmmm, now I actually want to know lol)

[Hippocras]

2 hours ago, Hugorfonics said:

I suppose, but we can do this with any thing. Whats the counter evidence that grumkins in the woodpile didnt cause the RW?

Or when did the GC cancel their contract, before or after Arya was in Braavos? (Hmmm, now I actually want to know lol)

oh, agreed. We still need evidence. All I have right now are suspicions and questions, an iron coin and an ornate key unlocking a door under the HBW that sounds remarkably similar to the city keys of the elite.

But I would say before we can have any evidence we need to have characters who have access to it - as with Tyrion giving us a window on Tywin. So Arya needs to be in a place where she can actually see something of importance, which will happen, or not, in WoW. Same is true of any Littlefinger connections to Braavos - Sansa needs to be in place to witness or some other character does.

[Hippocras]

As a result of other, seemingly unrelated discussions I am beginning to speculate on the possible relevance of the events in the North after the Dance, and the not yet written story about the She-Wolves of Winterfell to what is currently taking place in the North. In general I am curious about the female line and how it relates to magic, and to what extent warging and other magical abilities are genetic.

If we assume that these things are a genetic but recessive trait requiring specific conditions to manifest fully, then it follows that the recessive gene was carried by both the mother and the father of the current set of Stark children.

This in turn has me thinking about House Blackwood and their history. They came from the North where they used to rule over most of the wolfswood which is now Stark territory. We know the Stark ancestors defeated the Warg King and took his daughters, and that the Warg King was based on Sea Dragon Point. The wolfswood extends to Sea Dragon point as well. This has me thinking that House Blackwood may be the exhiled descendants of the Warg King.

If so, their various marriages into House Stark are interesting and likely related to the Starks' warging abilities. House Blackwood is at any rate a key hinge connecting the North, Vale and Riverlands.

Alysanne Blackwood was the second wife of Cregan Stark with whom she had no sons but many daughters. We don't know where any of those daughters ended up but it strikes me as very interesting that, not long after fighting in a war on behalf of Rhaenyra, Alysanne's daughters were passed over in the Stark succession in favour of younger half-brothers by Cregan's third wife. This strikes me as something that would likely lead to a great deal of tension. Tensions that may reveal hidden motives in how the various Northern houses make decisions in the Winds of Winter, depending on if those houses count one of the daughters of Alysanne as an ancestor.

With that in mind, these are the Houses that I think Alysanne's daughters may have married into:

1. House Magnar. Either the daughter in question was contesting her rights in the Skagosi rebellion, or she was offered in marriage as part of the peace terms. Either way the timing of the Skagos rebellion feels relevant.

2. House Mormont. Aside from the various hints that the Mormont women are skinchangers, their characters also seem rather similar to Alysanne's. There has always been a need in the North to maintain connections with vassal houses, so even without specific political circumstances requiring it, this makes sense as a match.

3. House Karstark. To what point back in time does their kinship with the Starks date back to, and how often do the families join?

4. House Frey. This one is based on the VERY tight relationship between Alysanne and Sabitha Frey.

5. House Royce.  This one is based on the subsequent marriages of descendants of House Stark and House Royce which could be related to a need to reintegrate Alysanne's line to prevent future strife.

6. Houses Flint, Glover, Cerwyn, Umber, Manderly and Ryswell married with House Stark around this time or not long after and may have this connection.