Stannis, Renly and other shenanigans. Vol.1

[frenin]

Since we were spamming in another thread and that's not so good and this discussion is as recurring as RLJ, I decided to make a thread about it. There's no need to explain more, only seeing the title seems enoug to catch the idea.

[frenin]

@FictionIsntReal

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In a premodern world, commanding people is a lot more difficult over distance.

Sure, had war broken out he would have to travel to the Vale, but as Ned states, Wardenship is simply a fancy title in peace times. Jaime didn't have to go nowhere, in fact Jaime gets the title and there's no talk about him travelling.

 

 

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It's not physically impossible that Robert could have declared Maester Aemon to be the new king, but I'm talking in the probabilistic language of expected value.

I mean in a probabilistic language of expected value, it's likelier that a father wants his own children inheriting  his stuff than his brother, especially when he doesn't get along with said brother.

Whether Stannis believes he benefits the most, it's only relevant in so far as we can tell what he believes/ he says he believes on the matter. It gives us absolutely zero hindsight on Robert's plans.

 

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100% accuracy is not necessary.

I was being nice, Stannis gives us absolutely zero accuracy.  Especially because there is a pattern about Stannis being negated things he believed he's entitled to by Robert.

 

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Did he have reason to think there was a murder plot against Robert at that point? Robert was still ignorant of the incest and Cersei's children stood to inherit.

And people were still stumbling upon the secret, sure he had a reason to believe there was a plot against Robert. He prepares himself for it.

 

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Stannis is. He'd been investigating the incest with Jon Arryn (whom he hadn't previously been friendly with) right before he was poisoned.

Huh, yet he doesn't ever, ever, ever, hint about him being scared about it?? He stays on the city with the Lannisters until he understands he's not getting the office he wanted and he leaves after the Lannisters marched north with Robert. Even when he knows they are not coming back in half a year.

And how's he going to be Hand from Dragonstone.

 

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Robert thinks it was natural causes, so no one is getting charged with "high treason".

Robert is oblivious to the whole affair.  Do you think he wouldn't be a bit curious if someone let him knowthat his surrogate father poisoned??

 

 

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Since he thinks the Lannisters killed Arryn for something the two of them knew about, it would be foolish to put himself back in harm's way. And he's not going to send a raven back that Pycelle can read before it gets to Ned.

1. Why he never says he was afraid of life?? Why he never thinks they were after him?
2. Why couldn't he send Davos?? Or Melisandre for that matter? He could have sent a ravento one of his captains to get Ned to Dragonstone
3. When has Stannis suspected Pycelle again?? Because i can tell you that he doesn't mention him once.
4. In fact, Stannis steals the Royal Fleet.  He knew that Robert was heading to Winterfell with a huge entourage, he could have gone from Dragonstone to White Harbour by ship and he would have been in Winterfell way before Robert even got to the Neck, at Winterfell he could have told the future Hand of the King the truth and Stannis and Ned would have confronted the Lannisters on Ned's own turf.

 

 

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Lysa also rushed home from KL after Jon's death, leading Jaime to dub her a "frightened cow"*. It does turn out that she's a cause of the coming trouble of course. Varys' conversation with Illyrio is also about how trouble was coming faster than they wanted it to.
*In an odd bit of parallel/ironic foreshadowing, Ned thinks that Stannis fleeing could indicate guilt or fear.

I don't really know what Lysa has to do with this, Lysa rushed from KL to put her son firmly under her claws, nor Lysa and Stannis .  And when i'm saying anyone else, I'm talking about people not trying to bring the Dothraki to Westeros. 

I would say that it was guilt and jealousy, Ned didn't know how much Stannis resented him and his relationship with Robert. 

But if your defense to Stannis are Lysa and Varys, who either were provoking the war or knew war was going to come... That's a pretty awful defense, Stannis was already hiring sellswords and calling his banners way before the Tyrion incident.

 

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When did that happen?

Ah, no, my bad. She says that he father would have dealt with Robert's brothers. 

She does name him as one of her enemies tho, while she doesn't do the same for Stannis.

 

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She would see to it that Ser Osmund was the one to discover his brother with the little queen; that way the loyalty of the other two Kettleblacks need not be impugned. If Father could only see me now, he would not be so quick to speak of marrying me off again. A pity he's so dead. Him and Robert, Jon Arryn, Ned Stark, Renly Baratheon, all dead. Only Tyrion remains, and not for long.

 

 

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The war that actually happened was not what was expected. For example, no one expected the Baratheon brothers to both declare themselves king. Cat is surprised when she hears Renly rather than Stannis has made such a declaration, and Tyrion immediately points out in response that the elder brother Stannis (who Tyrion also fears more despite Renly's numbers) wouldn't agree to such a claim. Then he & Cersei are both overjoyed when the two fight each other rather than the Lannisters.

Completely inmaterial, no war would have happened with Robert alive.

Ofc that with a power vacuum, people try to fill it with crazy outcomes, that doesn't change the fact that first it has to be a power vacuum.

 

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When does he think she's going to try to kill him and how do you know?

He believes Cersei is going after him the moment Robert dies as he tells Cat.

 

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“He had sworn to protect Robert’s children,” Renly said. “I lacked the strength to act alone, so when Lord Eddard turned me away, I had no choice but to flee. Had I stayed, I knew the queen would see to it that I did not long outlive my brother.”

That and the fact Renly goes into a panic attack when Robert dies, i don't know why you have a hard time believing this, half of the things you claim about Stannis don't even appear in the books.

 

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A more important factor would get higher priority. Renly & LF both talk in terms of Ned as regent holding the power Robert left via Joffrey.

Why?? Both factors get higher priority and the fact that Renly wants Nedto have the power doesn't mean he's any less in panic. 

In fact it means that he believes Ned being regent is the answer to his urges, he supports a soft coup lead by Ned if that means that the Lannisters aren't getting control of the kingdom with Robert's death and Joffrey's ascension, he declares hiself king once that option is out of the window.

 

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When had Renly earlier attempted to turn Ned against the Lannisters?

What a weird strawman... When has Ned ever been a pro Lannister needed to be converted?

Once Renly sees that he can't get Ned on board, he reminds him that the Lannisters are merciless and he leaves, those words are not there to convince Ned to do anything.

 

 

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I don't think Robert would care that much about "the right house". Producing a legitimate heir will take priority over the prestige of the maternal line.

It would certainly not. Robert is not 60 years and in desperate need for an heir and certainly the new house has totry to fill the hole leave by the Lannisters.

 

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He did tell Ned he wanted to abdicate, but didn't because of the succession.

Indeed.

 

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Stannis didn't hold any of Cat's children as a hostage, and he'd just been beaten by the Lannisters.

Exactly, legitimacy doesn't matter one bit without the support or tools to uphold it. Whether Stanis was the rightful pretender or not was inmaterial to Cat, just as much as it was to Greatjon and the Lord of the Trident just as it was to the Stormlords and Riverlords while Renly was around.

 

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The Starks were going to war with the Lannisters for seizing Ned (with his daughter/s) and razing the Riverlands. Renly had put himself forward as an alternative to the Lannisters. Stannis had not.

Not could he ever match Renly's offer as the rest of the Lords of the Trident soon noted.

 

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"Renly is crowned," said Marq Piper. "Highgarden and Storm's End support his claim, and the Dornishmen will not be laggardly. If Winterfell and Riverrun add their strength to his, he will have five of the seven great houses behind him. Six, if the Arryns bestir themselves! Six against the Rock! My lords, within the year, we will have all their heads on pikes, the queen and the boy king, Lord Tywin, the Imp, the Kingslayer, Ser Kevan, all of them! That is what we shall win if we join with King Renly. What does Lord Stannis have against that, that we should cast it all aside?"

"The right," said Robb stubbornly. Catelyn thought he sounded eerily like his father as he said it.

“So you mean us to declare for Stannis?” asked Edmure. “I don’t know,” said Robb. “I prayed to know what to do, but the gods did not answer. The Lannisters killed my father for a traitor, and we know that was a lie, but if Joffrey 

Robb was the only Great Lord who briefly cared about proper succesion laws, who knows what he would have done had the twincest being made public earlier but by the time the ravens flew all majors had crossed or were preparing themselves to cross the Rubicon, no one would have change their plans to support someone they didn't even like in the first place.

 

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Robb Stark & Maege Mormont both insist Renly can't be king before Stannis. Piper immediately responds that "Renly is crowned", which is precisely the thing I brought up and you dismiss as not making a difference.

Because it doesn't make a difference. It is not that Renly is crowned but that Renly has the support or is set up to have the support of all the major players on the game, While Stannis doesn't. If Renly didn't have the support of the Reach and the Stormlands... do you think that it would have made a difference whether he was crowned or not??

Stannis crowns himself in ACOK, what lord rush to do him homage?? None.

Robb was the only Great Lord who still and very briefly

 

 

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Stannis' statement about the incest comes in the same letter in which he declares himself king. The Stormlands do join Stannis' army, which Robb never has reason to do.

And everyone ignores it. The Stormlords do join Stannis's army... when Renly dies and he gets Storm's End by default, no Stormlord had any intention to do so while the younger Baratheon was alive.

How Robb doesn't have a reason to join his king??

 

 

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What is your point in bringing up "the official story" rather than what we know to be true?

Thought i made myself clear.

The Martells were planning on destroying the Lannisters and Robert, yet they were his loyal vassals (no rebellion, no nonsense) for 15 years, Robert died and they were still his vassals.

What they would and what they wouldn't do is inmaterial to the point at hand, they could have gone to Stannis even if only "officially". They did not.

 

 

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He already knows Renly has Highgarden supporting him. Tyrion also knows this later on (after Stannis has crowned himself), but discounts it based on Stannis being an experienced military commander while Renly has never been in war even if he is "beloved of the commons".

They know what support Renly has, they do not know what support Stannis has or what he's up to.

Stannis being an experienced military commander would not have gotten him anywhere without Renly's army. Since we were talking about support. 

 

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We never actually see Renly in a battle, though we do see him making poor decisions in his plans for one. And it's because of command ability that both Tywin & Tyrion fear Stannis more.

1. No, we don't but it seems to be the strawman we're discussing now.
2. Believe it or not, we were discussing support, not commanding ability.
3. That commanding ability didn't transform into support, as we see in the prologue.
4. Yes, Stannis is a far better commander than Renly, no one has ever argued that.
5. Commanding ability without men= certain death. As Davos states
6. Stannis himself seemed well aware of this as he says "what i need are swords" and that's the reason he's ultimately drawed to Meli.

But it is true, Stannis does have far more hype lines than almost any other character.

 

 

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Even at his lowpoint he's still able to rout Mance Rayder's army. He proceeds from there to seize Deepwood Motte & capture Asha, then move to attack Winterfell, gaining support as he achieves victories. Even the Iron Bank comes to think he could seize the throne.

1. Indeed.
2. Indeed. He gains support because both Robb and Tywin are dead. Jon made it clear, people in the North fear Tywin, without him as a factor and his only rival being Roose, Ramsay and the Freys in such conditions, he should be a moron not to do it.  
3. The Iron Bank doesn't "come to think he could seize the Throne". The Iron Bank is spit by Cersei and then they turn to the only pretender (alive) to the Throne besides Tommen (at the time) and they offer him unlimited cash to get throne. It is because of that that he has a chance to seize the throne, not vice versa.

This ofc without factoring Jon in all this.

 

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Tyrion thinks similarly. And when GRRM has both of them think something, that should indicate something to you. Stannis does in fact nearly take KL, even after Tyrion uses his chain & wildfire.

Has Martin told you this?? This is indeed a weird strawman you're taking.

 

1. Whether Stannis is most dangerous than his brother or not, this is debatable but whatever, doesn't change the fact that armies are to be taking into account.
2. Stannis doesn't have said armies.
3. Stannis needs said armies.

Hype lines are only to be taken account if there's nothing else to counter it,

 

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Marq Piper assumed Renly would, which was another part of his reasoning. Tyrion does not rely on that when reasoning about why Stannis is scarier than Renly. He does rely on Renly hanging back and letting Robb fight the Lannisters, which is what happens, as Renly never even leaves the Reach prior to Stannis besieging Storm's End.

So, what you're saying is that it was a pipedream?? Thought so.

 

 

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Tommen is a small child. The Baratheon brothers are the closest substitutes, and when one dies men simply switch camps to the other.

And Joffrey's heir. That reasoning is quite absurd, Stannis believed that people would call him with Joff's death when there's another male Baratheon.

Small children are not moved from the succession, not if they are boys. That's why the institution of the regency was created.

 

 

 

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The goal was not to kill Renly personally but to obtain his army. So, yes, getting him to bring that army was the idea.

You sure?? Should we pretend that this conversation never happened??

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“Your god can keep his grace,” said Lord Stannis, who did not share his wife’s fervent new faith. “It’s swords I need, not blessings. Do you have an army hidden somewhere that you’ve not told me of?” [...] “How many swords will the Lord of Light put into my hand?” Stannis demanded again. “All you need,” his wife promised. “The swords of Storm’s End and Highgarden for a start, and all their lords bannermen.” “Davos would tell you different,” Stannis said. “Those swords are sworn to Renly. They love my charming young brother, as they once loved Robert … and as they have never loved me.” “Yes,” she answered, “but if Renly should die …” Stannis looked at his lady with narrowed eyes, until Cressen could not hold his tongue. “It is not to be thought. Your Grace, whatever follies Renly has committed—” “Follies? I call them treasons.” Stannis turned back to his wife. “My brother is young and strong, and he has a vast host around him, and these rainbow knights of his.” “Melisandre has gazed into the flames, and seen him dead.” Cressen was horrorstruck. “Fratricide … my lord, this is evil, unthinkable … please, listen to me.” Lady Selyse gave him a measured look. “And what will you tell him, maester? How he might win half a kingdom if he goes to the Starks on his knees and sells our daughter to Lysa Arryn?” “I have heard your counsel, Cressen,” Lord Stannis said. “Now I will hear hers. You are dismissed.”

Why didn't Stannis went to Bitterbridge instead?? A 100k army doesn't move fast, it would've been months before they reached Storm's End and by the time, either the Lannisters or the Starks could have achieved a decisive victory that would have left the other parties without much balance. And if Renly moved fast, he would only bring a fraction of said army.

 

 

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He was born & raised there, as were his forefathers. He even commanded it when Mace Tyrell besieged it.

Yes, it means it's his home. It sure as hell doesn't mean it's his or his to besiege. It passed from Robert to Renly.

 

 

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Robert was king and head of House Baratheon, both Dragonstone & Storm's End were his to do with as he chose. Stannis inherits both the kingdom and the house. There is no sense in which Renly would have ever had authority over his older brother, whereas Robert did have the authority to insist that Stannis marry Selyse.

What?? Robert splits up the Houses and the Castles.  Robert gives away the castles and the titles.  They are no longer his.

- House Baratheon of King's Landing -> Robert  and his children.

- House Baratheon of Dragonstone  -> Stannis and his children.

- House Baratheon of Storm's End -> Renly and his children.

 

Hell this is made clear right away.

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“He made me a poor envoy in any case. The storm lords will not rise for me. It seems they do not like me, and the justice of my cause means nothing to them. The cravenly ones will sit behind their walls waiting to see how the wind rises and who is likely to triumph. The bold ones have already declared for Renly. For Renly!” He spat out the name like poison on his tongue. “Your brother has been the Lord of Storm’s End these past thirteen years. These lords are his sworn bannermen—”

 

Renly did not have authority over his brother, he remained Lord Paramount of the Stormlands, that did not somehow reverted back to Stannis.  Stormlands and Storm's End are "his" the same way Dorne and Sunspear is "his".

He would have been treated the same way had he tried to force a blocaked in the Planky Town.

 

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And Renly very foolishly let his opponent set the time of his own attack.

Sure, wouldn't have changed anything.

 

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Storm's End held out a very long time when it was last besieged, before the besiegers surrendered to the relieving force without a fight. It could hold out for Renly's infantry to arrive and "besiege the besiegers" but "[t]hat choice Renly had denied himself in his headlong rush to come to grips with his brother".

Are we again discussing a strawman?? 

It sems so, okey, taking a different path Cat or Ned would have proposed =/ making a mistake.

 

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If his goal is to get rid of Cersei, then he does indeed have something to gain from it.

What?? At the cost of bending the knee i don't think so.

 

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And rather than simply dismissing Stannis' forces he says "never forget my brother Stannis, who holds Dragonstone and commands the lords of the narrow sea" when arguing his own odds to Cat. Stannis also commanded the royal fleet as Master of Ships, which would of course be useful in attacking King's Landing.

Sure, Stannis makes a fine addition to his troops but him and on himself is not worth bending the knee to him.

Renly was already starving King's Landing from afar, by the time he would have gotten there, there would not be much resistance. Stannis isn't indeed needed to bring Cersei down.

 

 

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I think he wanted power. Getting rid of Cersei without empowering him and/or the Tyrells wasn't of interest to him.

Why would he give the Kingdom to Ned again?? That strictly collides with your believe.

 

 

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Having Renly bend the knee as his heir was Stannis' version of making common cause. An older brother never bends the knee to the younger.

A shitty version.

As it happened, the one with the 100k army wasn't the older brother but the younger. Things were different.

 

 

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He DID approach Jon Arryn, who was murdered as a result. Lysa can hardly substitute, Jon wanted to foster his son with Stannis to get him away from her. And when he was ready to make his announcement, he sent it out to all the lords of the realm he could.

... It doesn't suit you when you know what we're talking about and you change the optics. 

No,  he doesn't go to the Arryns, as his wife tells him that he would be begging and he can't have that.

 

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“Be that as it may, my lord,” Maester Cressen said gently. “Great wrongs have been done you, but the past is dust. The future may yet be won if you join with the Starks. There are others you might sound out as well. What of Lady Arryn? If the queen murdered her husband, surely she will want justice for him. She has a young son, Jon Arryn’s heir. If you were to betroth Shireen to him—” “The boy is weak and sickly,” Lord Stannis objected. “Even his father saw how it was, when he asked me to foster him on Dragonstone. Service as a page might have done him good, but that damnable Lannister woman had Lord Arryn poisoned before it could be done, and now Lysa hides him in the Eyrie. She’ll never part with the boy, I promise you that.” “Then you must send Shireen to the Eyrie,” the maester urged. “Dragonstone is a grim home for a child. Let her fool go with her, so she will have a familiar face about her.” “Familiar and hideous.” Stannis furrowed his brow in thought. “Still … perhaps it is worth the trying …” “Must the rightful Lord of the Seven Kingdoms beg for help from widow women and usurpers?” a woman’s voice asked sharply. Maester Cressen turned, and bowed his head. “My lady,” he said, chagrined that he had not heard her enter. Lord Stannis scowled. “I do not beg. Of anyone. Mind you remember that, woman.” “I am pleased to hear it, my lord.” “Lady Arryn owes you her allegiance, as do the Starks, your brother Renly, and all the rest. You are their one true king. It would not be fitting to plead and bargain with them for what is rightfully yours by the grace of god.” [...]  “Melisandre has gazed into the flames, and seen him dead.” Cressen was horrorstruck. “Fratricide … my lord, this is evil, unthinkable … please, listen to me.” Lady Selyse gave him a measured look. “And what will you tell him, maester? How he might win half a kingdom if he goes to the Starks on his knees and sells our daughter to Lysa Arryn?” “I have heard your counsel, Cressen,” Lord Stannis said. “Now I will hear hers. You are dismissed.”

Negotiation is not weakness, even rightfuls kings must do so from time to time, especially when they lack the power to do so.

Every player must do so even if it fails and it's indeed based in approaching the ones we're trying to win over and making generous offers. It's simply diplomacy

  Robb tries do so with Renly and Balon and he fails, Renly does so with the Tyrells and he's extremely sucessful, Tyrion and Tywin do so and they got Robb killed, the North, the Tyrells and "Dorne".  Yet...

No, Stannis does not approach the Arryns, just as he doesn't approach the Starks.

 

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Renly does have Mathis Rowan, who tells him Stannis can't actually take Storm's End, and Randyll Tarly who objects to the vanguard charging into the blinding sun. Unlike Robert, Renly does not change his plans in response to such points. We can see in the Winds of Winter Stannis again counting on the foolishness of the commander attacking him, whereas he has a grudging respect for Robert as a military thinker, imagining that "even Robert" would be proud of the victory Stannis & Renly could have won.

The reason why Renly finally decides to attack Stannis is because Randyll Tarly convinces him to do so,  Randyll Tarly objects that is a bad idea to attack blinding by the sun but he offers no counter to Renly when he says that it would only be the first charge.

Again?? When did he count it the first time?? At Fair Isle??  That's a nice jump of logic. 

Thing is, Renly is compared with Robert and Robert did make mistakes on the battlefield, that doesn't make him incompetent, nor does make Renly incompetent.

 

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Tywin and Tyrion both. Every Westerosi lord knows Stannis is an experienced commander who has maintained order even during the most desperate circumstances.

Yet without a sizable army he wasn't going anywhere.

 

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The more important death was Robb Stark's, since the Northmen had been fighting under Robb against Tywin. The Boltons betrayed Robb for Tywin, and they remain Stannis' enemies in the North.

The more important death is Tywin, as it opens Stannis (and Danny, and Aegon and Tyrion and...) a window that was closed before.

Jon says that even in the North people fear Tywin's wrath and before his dead only Karstark had joined him, Barbs Dustin also cites Tywin's death as a game changer, the only reason the Iron Bank approaches him is Cersei (no Tywin, no Cersei) and his only jope to win over the North is Manderly, who would not have thought of supporting him had Tywin been alive.

Ofc that without him capitalizing Robb's death (leeches who), he would have been kicked out of the North right away.

 

 

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Not Dragonstone, he had already left before news of Tywin's death.

My bad, he would have been rotting on the wall.  Or maybe not, since Jon and Tywin would have soon enough entered in conflict over him,

 

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In a Catelyn chapter? She's not going to hear his plans. We pick up with Davos after Renly has already died and Stannis is remembering how he failed to wake up for the battle. No need to discuss plans that won't be executed then. And we don't know all the details of his plans for the Battle of Ice either, though he's quite confident he'll beat a foe with an on-paper advantage.

Or in Davos. There's no mention of any plan involving some crazy light.  There's a good difference between "Stannis might have had a plan" and "this was Stannis's plan" Especially when it comes to traps and the such, since they would need to get removed and so on.

What we know is that he was sleeping while the rest of his men were awake.

Yes, we know that he has a plan for the Battle of Ice, that doesn't mean and confidence tells me nothing.

 

 

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Oh, I don't believe he was "carefully testing". Rather, he would have tested it in private so Renly couldn't see and was actually making an error by letting Renly see the effect it had. A more competent commander than Renly would have updated on such info rather than gambling everything on an initial charge into the sun.

Why?? Didn't you read your own tinfoil theory??

 

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What are you trying to say? Stannis doesn't have to like somebody to demand justice for them. The whole deal with Davos' fingers is that Stannis demands a strict application of justice regardless of his other feelings toward someone. He also promised Cat he would deliver her daughters... dead or alive. It wasn't an attempt to curry favor with her, just what he thought was just.

Because we get to see Stannis's conversation with Cressen!!! In which he couldn't be more clear. Stannis believes that Cersei killed Ned but he doesn't give a shit because he disliked Ned. 

Someone that demands a strict application of justice regardless of his other feelings towards someone would not demand to know why he should get justice for Ned.

 

 

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Stannis is capable of having his troops defend a flank from a threat coming from a fixed position within sight of his siege engines.

Does he have enough troops to do so?? He doesn't even know how many men there are on the castle, nor their weapons.

 

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Renly did not wait for the rest of his host, so he has ONLY his cavalry, and his entire plan was to bank on a single charge from that vanguard. Stannis at the Blackwater had basically the worst possible beginning (the chain & wildfire) but was able to recover from it to nearly win the battle. The relief force came late in the battle when Stannis' forces were already busy fighting the city's defenders.

The reason why Stannis is "able to recover from it to nearly win the battle" is the same  why he was crushed at the Blackwater at the Blackwater and the same reason why regardless of the shenanigans he is very unlikely to win against Renly.  Sheer numbers.

Renly did not wait for his host to catch up, that means he had few infantry, and mostly cavalry it doesn't mean he only had infantry.

 

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Why would he bother bringing it up in a later book? The Battle of Ice will show what Stannis would actually do defending against a numerically superior foe relying on cavalry, and without any need for him to say "You know, this reminds me of the battle I never had with Renly. Anyway, back to the present..."

What?? The conditions and context of either battle could not be more different.  You do know what we do have however?? Stannis dreaming about killing Renly

He wouldn't bother ofc, because his plan was a shadowbaby. 

 

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Which could also happen if Renly and/or Loras are captured in the battle, a common fate for nobles in medieval warfare.

So, he's banking his plan on luck?? It couuld also happen if Renly is dead. And soon enough he is, Stannis makes up a sketchy reasoning, Davos can tell he's bullshitting, Stannis repeats the game even reminding how healthy his brother was before dying and the night being full of terrors.. And Davos realizing how far he has gone.

 

[FictionIsntReal]

6 hours ago, frenin said:

Since we were spamming in another thread and that's not so good and this discussion is as recurring as RLJ, I decided to make a thread about it. There's no need to explain more, only seeing the title seems enoug to catch the idea.

I understand the impulse, but this does make it slightly harder to follow the conversation, particularly for anyone reading this who hadn't already read the prior thread. The comment of mine you're responding to is here.

4 hours ago, frenin said:

I mean in a probabilistic language of expected value, it's likelier that a father wants his own children inheriting  his stuff than his brother, especially when he doesn't get along with said brother.

I don't think that necessarily applies to bastards. Even if Robert doesn't personally get along with Stannis, they have worked together on a shared political project because of their kinship. He hasn't had anything to do with his bastards since leaving the Vale.

Especially because there is a pattern about Stannis being negated things he believed he's entitled to by Robert.

You mean like when Robert granted him Dragonstone instead of Storm's End, and per GRRM that was Robert affirming Stannis as his heir?

And people were still stumbling upon the secret

Does Stannis know that? The incest had been going on for years, but Jon Arryn appeared to be the first person murdered to cover it up.
 

Huh, yet he doesn't ever, ever, ever, hint about him being scared about it??

He doesn't even appear in the first book, and he's never a POV character. Do you think Stannis of all people is going to start going on about being scared in the past? His whole schtick is being a hard man who just grits his teeth.

Do you think he wouldn't be a bit curious if someone let him knowthat his surrogate father poisoned??

Stannis says he told Jon Arryn rather than Robert acout the incest because he didn't think Robert would believe him. Is Robert going to believe him about not only the incest but the actual cause of Jon Arryn's death, even though Jon Arryn hadn't given any indication of that while dying? And Bran overheard Cersei & Jaime discussing the same point: Robert would believe his Hand about something where he wouldn't trust his brother.

Why he never says he was afraid of life?? Why he never thinks they were after him?

I must have missed all those Stannis POV chapters you somehow got hold of.

Why couldn't he send Davos?? Or Melisandre for that matter? He could have sent a ravento one of his captains to get Ned to Dragonstone

He's completely locking Dragonstone down and not letting ANYONE leave. One of Tyrion's points of frustration (in the same passage about how he fears Stannis more than Renly) is that he doesn't know what's going on with Stannis as a result, as even Varys' little birds there are cut off. Paranoia is a rational strategy against the Lannisters. I do think there was also some petulance involved in that he wants to be sought out on his home turf.

When has Stannis suspected Pycelle again?

How long did it take Ned to distrust Pycelle? Pycelle is terribly unsubtle in his biases and Stannis was with him on the small council for years.

he could have told the future Hand of the King the truth and Stannis and Ned would have confronted the Lannisters on Ned's own turf

When was the last time Stannis had any interaction with Ned? At least with Jon Arryn the two of them had joined together to oppose Janos Slynt. He doesn't know Ned is going to receive that message from Lysa, nor that Bran is going to be thrown out a window.

I don't really know what Lysa has to do with this

Ned wonders whether Stannis left because of guilt or fear. We learn early on that Stannis wasn't guilty of Jon Arryn's poisoning but was instead working together with him, and later it's revealed Lysa was actually guilty and only pretending to be scared of the Lannisters. The absence of her and maester Colemon then obstructs Ned's investigation. So what's the answer to Ned's question about Stannis? Fear. The same target he believed to be on Jon Arryn was on him as a result of them working together.

I would say that it was guilt and jealousy

Jealousy I can buy, but what would he feel guilty about?

She does name him as one of her enemies tho, while she doesn't do the same for Stannis.

The list begins with "Him", meaning Tywin, because it's a list of dead people. And Stannis isn't dead.

He believes Cersei is going after him the moment Robert dies as he tells Cat.

Renly never says that to Cat. And Renly's whole argument to Ned is about how controlling the king (which he thinks he has enough swords to do vs the Lannisters) means controlling the kingdom under a regency. There wasn't any reason to expect a regency when he was showing off that picture of Margaery.

That and the fact Renly goes into a panic attack when Robert dies

Ned never describes him as panicked. Do you know what a panic attack is?

What a weird strawman...

I pointed out that Lysa, Varys & LF all tell Ned things to make him view the Lannisters as enemies (only Varys was presumably telling the truth). You wrote "What he says about the Lannisters is not to convince Ned, as he has given up pn him by that point." If his Margaery plot had actually been motivated by fear of Cersei, one might have expected him to have been more overtly recruiting Ned into an anti-Lannister faction, perhaps talking about what a terrible regent Cersei would be assuming he was foreseeing that as a possibility. But it's not like he even has any reaction to Cersei's brother attacking Ned in the street.

Robert is not 60 years and in desperate need for an heir and certainly the new house has totry to fill the hole leave by the Lannisters.

Robert really wanted to marry Lyanna, and it wasn't because the Starks were nearly as rich as the Lannisters. Instead it was because of Robert's personal feelings. He only got badgered into marrying Cersei by Jon Arryn, and he hated the resulting marriage. He's not going to want to repeat the same logic.

Exactly, legitimacy doesn't matter one bit without the support or tools to uphold it.

I think legitimacy has gotten short shrift in this conversation, when it is the basis for an aristocratic system of governance ("Legitimism" is even a term for a dynastic faction in France). Renly's idea that whoever has the largest army gets the throne is incompatible with actual monarchism, as instead it would devolve into a society of warlords where no one could count on the next generation succeeding. Ned & Cat both believe in small-l legitimism, that gods make kings and kings must care about their subjects. This isn't because they're aberrant, rather a medieval feudal order is naturally populated with such people. The initial arc of the books is about the unusually cynical & devious getting one over on folks like the Starks, which is then a recipe for civil war & disorder. Tracing back to your point about Cat wanting to bend the knee, that's not at the beginning of the War of the Five Kings when Tywin & Tyrion both regard Stannis as their most dangerous opponent. It's after Stannis has already failed and is no longer mounting any sort of campaign against the incumbent regime. And, as noted, Cat has the personal motivation of having her only (as far as she knows) surviving child still in Lannister hands.

Robb was the only Great Lord who briefly cared about proper succesion laws

Ned cared before him, and Stannis also insists on it (though he hadn't made his claim by that point). We don't hear from Hoster because he's sick while Jon Arryn was already dead. The only Lord Paramount that sided with Renly was Mace Tyrell, and that's because he'd formed a marriage alliance with him (same as he would later do with Joffrey). The Westerosi definitely care about proper succession laws, which is why a queen bearing illegitimate children is considered treason (even in a case like Rhaenyra where her husband was apparently ok with it). Speaking of Rhaenyra, she holds back from handing certain holdings over to allies because she doesn't want to meddle with proper succession laws.

Because it doesn't make a difference. It is not that Renly is crowned

Then why is it the first thing Marq Piper brings up!? If Stannis had sent his letter earlier, Robb seems like he would have pledged fealty (and brought the Riverlands with him).

How Robb doesn't have a reason to join his king??

Robb had already declared himself king before Stannis did, and his forces were far enough from Stannis to act as an independent theater of the war.

What they would and what they wouldn't do is inmaterial to the point at hand, they could have gone to Stannis even if only "officially". They did not.

They stayed out of the war of five kings completely. And they only sent Oberyn to KL to demand justice from the Lannisters.
 

Stannis being an experienced military commander would not have gotten him anywhere without Renly's army

Tyrion already knew Stannis didn't have Renly's army when he was worrying about the former more than the latter.

Believe it or not, we were discussing support, not commanding ability

We're discussing both. Renly's whole claim to the throne is based on military force (not a Great Council, which he explicitly rejects as an option). And Stannis' command ability is a force multiplier.

But it is true, Stannis does have far more hype lines than almost any other character.

When Tyrion is fretting about Stannis, he's not hyping him up for any other character. That's what he honestly thinks. And smart people like Tywin & Tyrion think that of Stannis because he really is one of the best commanders.

Whether Stannis is most dangerous than his brother or not, this is debatable but whatever, doesn't change the fact that armies are to be taking into account.

Tywin & Tyrion WERE taking Renly's armies into account.

Small children are not moved from the succession, not if they are boys.

Tell that to Maegor II. Aside from his father being regarded as twisted & insane, the lords also wanted to avoid a long regency. Aegon VI was also set behind the older Viserys by Aerys (after Rhaegar died).

Why didn't Stannis went to Bitterbridge instead??

Try sailing from Dragonstone to Bitterbridge And why would he go to the Reach when the vassals he intends to claim are in the Stormlands?

by the time, either the Lannisters or the Starks could have achieved a decisive victory

Robb had a string of such victories by the time of Blackwater, but it wasn't enough.

Renly did not have authority over his brother

Indeed, you earlier brought up the case of Emmon Frey. When he was mistakenly claiming to be Lord Paramount, he somehow thought that he was both under the authority of his father while his father was also under his authority as bannerman. But that was wrong, as the patriarchal order requires authority flowing strictly from fathers to sons. With the death of Steffon Baratheon, Robert became head of House Baratheon, and it was on such authority that he had Stannis marry Selyse even after Stannis was made Lord of Dragonstone. With the death of Robert, Stannis claims to inherit both the throne and status as head of House Baratheon.

Sure, wouldn't have changed anything.

Randyll Tarly thought it mattered, and he's also respected as a military mind.

It sems so, okey, taking a different path Cat or Ned would have proposed =/ making a mistake.

Cat perceived that Renly had put himself in a dangerous position, and that Ned wouldn't have done that. And to show it's not just her being an idiot, Mathis Rowan makes the same point. Combine that with Tarly's different objection, and we see that Renly is making multiple choices others (older than him and apparently more knowledgeable about war) perceive as mistakes and not listening to any advice because he's so confident that initial charge will be enough. He's practically got "pride before the fall" written all over him.

What?? At the cost of bending the knee i don't think so.

So was the Margaery plot really motivated by fear of Cersei, or desire for power? Because bending the knee to Stannis would be sufficient to get rid of Cersei, even if it wouldn't make Renly king or give much advantage to the Tyrells.

Renly was already starving King's Landing from afar, by the time he would have gotten there, there would not be much resistance.

Renly himself survived a much longer siege in which Stannis managed to keep up resistance at Storm's End. And King's Landing hasn't even been blockaded. KL was still resisting up to the Blackwater, when Stannis actually did arrive after his delay at Storm's End. And of course the various kingdoms managed without the Reach (even being at war with it) prior to unification under Aegon.

Why would he give the Kingdom to Ned again??

Renly didn't, Robert did. Renly offered swords to use to seize Cersei's children, noting that controlling Joffrey would mean controlling the kingdom. So if swords loyal to Renly surround Joffrey, who has power?

As it happened, the one with the 100k army wasn't the older brother but the younger

From time to time a king may send out a brother or son with a larger army than the king himself keeps at the capital. But his young kin with the large army is still expected to owe him fealty. The other way around never happens.

No,  he doesn't go to the Arryns, as his wife tells him that he would be begging and he can't have that.

He dismisses her religion and sarcastically asks if she has an army hidden. Stannis doesn't like women, and assumes Lysa is too frightened to let Sweetrobin come to Dragonstone (he's righter than he knows there). We actually know Lysa was responsible for Jon Arryn's death and LF had told her to keep out of the war, so there wouldn't have been any point to him offering her "justice" for her husband's death.

The reason why Renly finally decides to attack Stannis is because Randyll Tarly convinces him to do so

He didn't "finally" decide that, he'd already decided on it and announced it. When Mathis objected, Renly dismisses the objection with "And have men say I feared to face Stannis?" If he actually valued Randyll Tarly's opinion that much he would have listened to him about not attacking at Stannis' chosen time, or perhaps let him lead the van since he'd successfully done so before. And since you noted that Loras in the vanguard did well enough at the Blackwater, note that when Loras made an attack on an enemy expecting him (Stannis' remnant on Dragonstone) it was reckless and resulted in needless casualties including life-threatening injuries to himself. It should be noted that there is a reason not to heed Mathis' advice: Cat noted that by racing ahead of his supply train, Renly had thereby put his cavalry at risk.

Again?? When did he count it the first time?? At Fair Isle??  That's a nice jump of logic.

I think you forgot to include the quote you were responding to, so I don't know what this is.

Robert did make mistakes on the battlefield

Like what? There's only one battle he lost, and we don't know what he could have done differently.

nor does make Renly incompetent

We have Renly's enemies all discounting him because of his inexperience at war, and when we actually see his plans for better we see multiple mistakes which he rationalizes with "What would people say". The whole point of the "knights of the summer" bit is that they're overly optimistic youngsters and don't know what they're in for.

The more important death is Tywin, as it opens Stannis (and Danny, and Aegon and Tyrion and...) a window that was closed before.

The Lannisters were going to let everyone in the North exhaust themselves fighting each other so they could then send Tyrion to Winterfell and take it away from the Boltons. Jaime does get sent to the Riverlands to deal with the Blackfish, but they don't send anyone past the Neck. And it should be noted that LF figured that he & fugitive Sansa would be safe from the Lannisters in the Vale even before Tywin died.

What we know is that he was sleeping while the rest of his men were awake.

Indeed, the rest of his men were expecting a battle with Stannis awake & participating. We know his sleep was magical because in his dreams he saw what Cat saw (this also explains why Devan couldn't wake him), and this wasn't part of any plan his men had. We don't need to hear the actual plan his army had for the battle, because it never happened.

Why?? Didn't you read your own tinfoil theory??

"Perhaps Stannis observed (or even deliberately tested this effect) when he drew the sword at the parley". Am I obligated to believe every "perhaps" in any work I cite? I think it would wake more sense to test it earlier in a more controlled environment. I do think this scene exists so the reader can learn about it.

Stannis believes that Cersei killed Ned but he doesn't give a shit because he disliked Ned.

Stannis doesn't take the view that Cersei shouldn't be punished. What he's rejecting is Robb as king of an independent North while Stannis is left with "half a kingdom". It's unreasonable for him to take that stance in his position, but it's not a deviation from his strict stance.

The reason why Stannis is "able to recover from it to nearly win the battle" is the same  why he was crushed at the Blackwater at the Blackwater and the same reason why regardless of the shenanigans he is very unlikely to win against Renly.  Sheer numbers.

Many battles have been won by the smaller force when the larger force falls apart after a setback. It wasn't sheer numbers that defeated Mance Rayder. The wildlings just weren't organized enough to withstand such an attack.

So, he's banking his plan on luck??

He's banking on the decisions made by an inexperienced commander, who put Loras in the vanguard making that first charge. In the Battle of Ice, he also banks on Hosteen Frey being stupid.

[frenin]

On 3/27/2021 at 11:23 PM, FictionIsntReal said:

I don't think that necessarily applies to bastards. Even if Robert doesn't personally get along with Stannis, they have worked together on a shared political project because of their kinship. He hasn't had anything to do with his bastards since leaving the Vale.

How so?? The thing about acknowledged bastards is that they come in handy precisely in these type of situations and they are still your blood.

They have worked together in a shared political project because of their kinship... And?? That doesn't mean he was willing to give him his crown, he even goes as far not giving him the wardenship and granting it to another person he doesn't really really like either. And wouldn't a legitimized bastard work together on such project??

Blood over "shared political project"... Does seem difficult.

 

 

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You mean like when Robert granted him Dragonstone instead of Storm's End, and per GRRM that was Robert affirming Stannis as his heir?

And Stannis felt cheated and kept complaining about it for 15 years and when he was ot giving the Handship and again??

Robert named him his heir because he didn't really have much, he does have more now and he can stand Stannis less.

 

 

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Does Stannis know that? The incest had been going on for years, but Jon Arryn appeared to be the first person murdered to cover it up.

Sure he does, he was preparing himself for a war over it.

 

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He doesn't even appear in the first book, and he's never a POV character. Do you think Stannis of all people is going to start going on about being scared in the past? His whole schtick is being a hard man who just grits his teeth.

Huh?? He doesn't ever appear in the first book and he's never a POV character, yet i know that he resents his brothers, that he is jealous of their popularity, that he believed that the Lannister killed Jon Arryn, that he is sleeping with Melisandre that...

There's a myriad of things that we know about Stannis without him being a POV character, there's a a lot of vulnerabilities Stannis shares without him being a POV charater, Yet him being afraid for his life is certainly one we don't see a hint of. What we do see is him ranting about how he should have been named Hand.

I don't need Stannis to go on and on about him being scared in the past, I want him to say it once  that he believed the Lannister woman was going to kill him.  Just as he says that the Lannister woman killed Jon, Robert and Ned. In fact i don't even need Stannis to say it, someone from his circle would be just fine, Davos doesn't say it and they have a good conversation about past events in his very first chapter, nor Florent. nor Selyse, nor Cressen not Pylo!  And if he's whole schtick is being a hard man who just grits his teeth... Why would he be afraid??

Do you know what character appears and says being afraid of his life?? The youngest brother.

 

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Stannis says he told Jon Arryn rather than Robert acout the incest because he didn't think Robert would believe him. Is Robert going to believe him about not only the incest but the actual cause of Jon Arryn's death, even though Jon Arryn hadn't given any indication of that while dying? And Bran overheard Cersei & Jaime discussing the same point: Robert would believe his Hand about something where he wouldn't trust his brother.

The truth don't have to come from Stannis, it could come from say Robert's best friend??

 

 

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I must have missed all those Stannis POV chapters you somehow got hold of.

I wonder how do you even know that Stannis stopped believing in the gods the day he saw his parents drowning. Or the story about proudwing...

Because as we know it's totally impossible for non POV to express their feelings, thoughts and anxieties. In fact Stannis is non POV known for not expressing his thoughts, feelings and anxieties!!!

Like, i'm for sure making up the fact that he was jealous of Ned, how can i even know?? I don't have his POV,

 

 

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He's completely locking Dragonstone down and not letting ANYONE leave. One of Tyrion's points of frustration (in the same passage about how he fears Stannis more than Renly) is that he doesn't know what's going on with Stannis as a result, as even Varys' little birds there are cut off. Paranoia is a rational strategy against the Lannisters. I do think there was also some petulance involved in that he wants to be sought out on his home turf.

I know what he did. I'm telling you what he could have done if he ever wanted a different outcome about what was bound to happen.

Stannis could have sent Davos, i tell you now,  bugs hadn't been invented yet. 

 

 

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How long did it take Ned to distrust Pycelle? Pycelle is terribly unsubtle in his biases and Stannis was with him on the small council for years.

How long did it take for Robert or Renly?? When talking about how hed'd clean house as Robert should have, strangely enough, Pycelle's name doesn't come out.

Nor i think Pycelle was unsubtle, the only time he truly shows he's a partisan is during the whole Gregor sentence.

 

 

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When was the last time Stannis had any interaction with Ned? At least with Jon Arryn the two of them had joined together to oppose Janos Slynt. He doesn't know Ned is going to receive that message from Lysa, nor that Bran is going to be thrown out a window.

1. The last time he saw Robert prior AGOT. Stannis himself goes on record admiting Ned's honorability and acknowledging the bond him and Robert shared. Since those two facts did not change on Stannis's mind with time, there was no reason for him not to do so... except because he didn't want to.
2. Ned was going to be the Hand of the King.
3. He doesn't need to know either of them. He knows about the twincest and believes knows the Lannisters had killed Ned's surrogate father. More than enough to travel to Winterfell, especially since no one is expecting him to do so and he can catch the Lannisters off guard.

 

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Ned wonders whether Stannis left because of guilt or fear. We learn early on that Stannis wasn't guilty of Jon Arryn's poisoning but was instead working together with him, and later it's revealed Lysa was actually guilty and only pretending to be scared of the Lannisters. The absence of her and maester Colemon then obstructs Ned's investigation. So what's the answer to Ned's question about Stannis? Fear. The same target he believed to be on Jon Arryn was on him as a result of them working together.

So you have decided on your own, that since you don't have a quote of Stannis ever hinting fear.

Ned's going to be that? Come on, not working.

Ned doesn't know that Stannis threw a fit of rage because he was not named Hand before leaving. His thoughts wouldn't have been the same,

Not that it matter because Ned is not Stannis and Ned does not know Stannis.

 

 

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Jealousy I can buy, but what would he feel guilty about?

He is abandoning his brother (s) to die.

 

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The list begins with "Him", meaning Tywin, because it's a list of dead people. And Stannis isn't dead.

The list doesn't begin with him. The list ends with Tyrion, who is alive and she says not for too long, unlike Stannis. Even Kettleback isn't sent to kill Stannis, only Jon. 

You could say that that's simply because Cersei is rather clear about not considering him a threat by AFFC  but the list is about past and present enemies and still... He seems more of an afterthought.

I know, more fool of her, for fearing Stannis.

 

 

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Renly never says that to Cat. And Renly's whole argument to Ned is about how controlling the king (which he thinks he has enough swords to do vs the Lannisters) means controlling the kingdom under a regency. There wasn't any reason to expect a regency when he was showing off that picture of Margaery.

Yes, Renly says as much to Cat.

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“He had sworn to protect Robert’s children,” Renly said. “I lacked the strength to act alone, so when Lord Eddard turned me away, I had no choice but to flee. Had I stayed, I knew the queen would see to it that I did not long outlive my brother.”

 

Renly whole argument was about Ned having the regency so the Lannisters couldn't have it... Having the children so Cersei wouldn't dare oppose them.

In fact he says the same to Ned

 

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Ned never describes him as panicked. Do you know what a panic attack is?

Yes and my words, he's clearly agitated and afraid. And how do you know, he actually flees because he's afraid??

Even without pov.

 

 

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I pointed out that Lysa, Varys & LF all tell Ned things to make him view the Lannisters as enemies (only Varys was presumably telling the truth). You wrote "What he says about the Lannisters is not to convince Ned, as he has given up pn him by that point." If his Margaery plot had actually been motivated by fear of Cersei, one might have expected him to have been more overtly recruiting Ned into an anti-Lannister faction, perhaps talking about what a terrible regent Cersei would be assuming he was foreseeing that as a possibility. But it's not like he even has any reaction to Cersei's brother attacking Ned in the street.

 

Yes, it is a weird straw man. When he says this, he has already giving up on him.

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“Then we should pray that Robert does not die.” “Small chance of that,” said Renly. “Sometimes the gods are merciful.” “The Lannisters are not.” Lord Renly turned away and went back across the moat, to the tower where his brother lay dying.

Now, i don't know why he should tell Ned what a terrible choice Cersei would be as regent... He didn't expect Robert to die soon.

 

 

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Robert really wanted to marry Lyanna, and it wasn't because the Starks were nearly as rich as the Lannisters. Instead it was because of Robert's personal feelings. He only got badgered into marrying Cersei by Jon Arryn, and he hated the resulting marriage. He's not going to want to repeat the same logic.

He betrothed Lyanna before he got to be King and had dynastic pressures. 

Robert is king and knows especially that there certain things he must even if he doesn't like it.

 

 

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I think legitimacy has gotten short shrift in this conversation, when it is the basis for an aristocratic system of governance ("Legitimism" is even a term for a dynastic faction in France). Renly's idea that whoever has the largest army gets the throne is incompatible with actual monarchism, as instead it would devolve into a society of warlords where no one could count on the next generation succeeding. Ned & Cat both believe in small-l legitimism, that gods make kings and kings must care about their subjects. This isn't because they're aberrant, rather a medieval feudal order is naturally populated with such people. The initial arc of the books is about the unusually cynical & devious getting one over on folks like the Starks, which is then a recipe for civil war & disorder. Tracing back to your point about Cat wanting to bend the knee, that's not at the beginning of the War of the Five Kings when Tywin & Tyrion both regard Stannis as their most dangerous opponent. It's after Stannis has already failed and is no longer mounting any sort of campaign against the incumbent regime. And, as noted, Cat has the personal motivation of having her only (as far as she knows) surviving child still in Lannister hands.

Still without tools to uphold it, it's irrelevant. Else, Viserys would sit on the Iron Throne,

Cat believes are very good but she doesn't believe her son should bend the knee to Stannis the most dangerous opponent, before or after the Blackwater. When she hears about the children being illegitimate, she doesn't think it's her duty to bend to Stannis.

The only reason Cat seemingly gave a damn about the Baratheon brother's was because it would prevent a fight between them and his son could join forces with them to end the Lannisters.

 

 

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Ned cared before him, and Stannis also insists on it (though he hadn't made his claim by that point). We don't hear from Hoster because he's sick while Jon Arryn was already dead. The only Lord Paramount that sided with Renly was Mace Tyrell, and that's because he'd formed a marriage alliance with him (same as he would later do with Joffrey). The Westerosi definitely care about proper succession laws, which is why a queen bearing illegitimate children is considered treason (even in a case like Rhaenyra where her husband was apparently ok with it). Speaking of Rhaenyra, she holds back from handing certain holdings over to allies because she doesn't want to meddle with proper succession laws.

Ned doesn't participate on the War of the 5 Kings.

Robb cares, Mace Tyrell doesn't care, Renly doesn't care, Lysa doesn't care, Balon doesn't care... How many great lords are rushing to Stannis after the ravens flew?? Zero.  Edmure was the acting Great lord for all intents and purposes and he didn't care either.If that caring isn't traduced in support...Then what's the point??

The Westerosi care about proper succession laws, then it means they simply don't want Stannis on the throne unless it's their only option.

 

 

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Then why is it the first thing Marq Piper brings up!? If Stannis had sent his letter earlier, Robb seems like he would have pledged fealty (and brought the Riverlands with him).

It's one of the thing he brings up. The order of factors does not alter the product. The man goes on and on about Renly's numbers and possible numbers and about Stannis's claim being irrrelevant to that reality.

Robb likely would have pledged fealty. He crowns himself and he doesn't care from that point on.

 

 

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Robb had already declared himself king before Stannis did, and his forces were far enough from Stannis to act as an independent theater of the war.

So he had decided not caring. Renly had already declared himself King before Stannis did. 

And let's not pretend that Stannis had any intention to call on Robb shall we?? We know he didn't.

 

 

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They stayed out of the war of five kings completely. And they only sent Oberyn to KL to demand justice from the Lannisters.

And their support went to...

 

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Tyrion already knew Stannis didn't have Renly's army when he was worrying about the former more than the latter.

Thank god we have Stannis's own words about needing Renly's lords to take King's Landing and Davos saying that if Stannis were to take his meagre to King's Landing. You would have me believe that Stannis could have taken King's Landing without Renly's men otherwise!!

Where would Stannis be without the hype lines...

 

 

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We're discussing both. Renly's whole claim to the throne is based on military force (not a Great Council, which he explicitly rejects as an option). And Stannis' command ability is a force multiplier

Nope, we were discussing the former, you introduced the latter once you realized that Stannis indeed didn't have support (which surprises me that you have kinda defended it for so long). 

Stannis's command is a force multiplier?? Said who?? His most impressive victory was him having numerical advantage over his foes and him taking by surprise women and children in a semi refugee camp.

Neither Stannis, nor his men believe that his command ability alone is going to get him far enough without a sizable host. That's the very reason why Stannis decides to murder Renly.

 

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When Tyrion is fretting about Stannis, he's not hyping him up for any other character. That's what he honestly thinks. And smart people like Tywin & Tyrion think that of Stannis because he really is one of the best commanders.

A hype line does not need to be said to other character.

We know what neither Tyrion nor Tywin knows. We know for a fact that Stannis was not going anywhere without more swords. Should i give you all the quotes?? He acknowledges it, Davos acknowledges it, Cressen acknowledges it.

What we see in the prologue is not a man to be afraid of. We see a desperate man that doesn't know what to do because he knows his right is slipping through his fingers because no one supports him. 

We get to see behind his mystery, so keep clutching to such hype lines is simply you liking the sound of them. We know of Stannis chances before Renly's dead and they were zero.

 

 

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Tywin & Tyrion WERE taking Renly's armies into account.

And they were taking into account the fact that they did not what he was up to.

Tywin  and Stannis also dismiss Robb for the very same thing, he had not lead men to war and he's a green boy... Is that correct then?? Because we have two capable men saying the same thing ?? Or suddenly it doesn't work that way?

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“Your Grace,” Stannis repeated bitterly. “You mock me with a king’s style, yet what am I king of? Dragonstone and a few rocks in the narrow sea, there is my kingdom.”

Do you think they would have been half as afraid had they actually known what was up to on Dragonstone??  

Bear in mind that after Stannis's defeat, Tywin, now more aware of his foe's situation, says that his sun has set.

 

 

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Tell that to Maegor II. Aside from his father being regarded as twisted & insane, the lords also wanted to avoid a long regency. Aegon VI was also set behind the older Viserys by Aerys (after Rhaegar died).

So you are actually given a good enough reasoning why he was sidestepped. People hated his dad. And Aerys's favourite was Viserys. Viserys was "older" but also a child needed of regency.

Now, do you know the amount of princes and lords that have actually been respected?? The overwhelming majority. 

Law directly stipulates one thing, child rulers are not set aside... And you're literally saying that said law it's false because sometimes there are exceptions to said law. That's as absurd as saying that those who go to the wall don't serve for lie because there are people who were allowed to leave it.

 

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Try sailing from Dragonstone to Bitterbridge  And why would he go to the Reach when the vassals he intends to claim are in the Stormlands?

He doesn't need to sail to Bitterbridge, he can go to Bitterbridge afoot.

And the vassals he intends to claim on are also in the Reach, since Stannis wanted the whole deal. One of the reasons he fails to gain control of the Tyrell host is precisely because there's a good  distance from Bitterbridge to Storm's End and Loras beats him ti it.

He goes to Storm's End because he is specifically told that is where Renly will die and he'll gain his power.

 

 

 

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Robb had a string of such victories by the time of Blackwater, but it wasn't enough.

String of victories=/ Decisive victory.

 

 

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Indeed, you earlier brought up the case of Emmon Frey. When he was mistakenly claiming to be Lord Paramount, he somehow thought that he was both under the authority of his father while his father was also under his authority as bannerman. But that was wrong, as the patriarchal order requires authority flowing strictly from fathers to sons. With the death of Steffon Baratheon, Robert became head of House Baratheon, and it was on such authority that he had Stannis marry Selyse even after Stannis was made Lord of Dragonstone. With the death of Robert, Stannis claims to inherit both the throne and status as head of House Baratheon.

I didn't bring Emmon Frey. Had Emmon actually been given command over the Riverlands, such duplicity would have indeed existed.

Robert was head of the Baratheon clan, that doesn't he had ownership over the holdings once he had given them away.

As i said earlier. Lady Forlom is not Lyonel Corbray's no matter how much he wants it and believes it should be his,

 

 

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Randyll Tarly thought it mattered, and he's also respected as a military mind.

When he is responded that it would only be the initial charge he doesn't add anything, And it's not like he is not blunt enough.

 

 

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Cat perceived that Renly had put himself in a dangerous position, and that Ned wouldn't have done that. And to show it's not just her being an idiot, Mathis Rowan makes the same point. Combine that with Tarly's different objection, and we see that Renly is making multiple choices others (older than him and apparently more knowledgeable about war) perceive as mistakes and not listening to any advice because he's so confident that initial charge will be enough. He's practically got "pride before the fall" written all over him.

1. Cat noted that Renly had out himself in a precararious position... just like Robert would have done. Now, are all of Robert's victories due to Ned??
2. Mathis Rowan does not make the same point not even similar and in fact Tarly disagrees him.
3. Already answered.

Cat doesn't say it's a mistake, Tarly and Rowan disagree and Tarly doesn't have anything to say about Renly's response. Renly actually decides to attack because he listens to Tarly, honestly, why are you twisting it so much?

Tarly is right however, charging with the sun blinding you is an unnecesary risk, the rest not so much imo,

We are not talking about the Blackwater...

 

 

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So was the Margaery plot really motivated by fear of Cersei, or desire for power? Because bending the knee to Stannis would be sufficient to get rid of Cersei, even if it wouldn't make Renly king or give much advantage to the Tyrells.

1. Fear of Cersei.
2. Not bending the knee to Stannis would also be sufficient to get rid of Cersei and Tywin, Tyrion, Kevan...

And just like Robb, Renly has already crowned himself. Believed it or not, when people make decisions they are not taking into account Stannis's needs (sacrilege i know, but that's life). If Robb  believes that he can get what he wants (vengeance against the Lannisters and his sister (s) back) by keeping a crown and not having to bend the knee to him. If Renly can get what he wants (ousting the Lannisters) without bending the knee to Stannis, he'll do that.

He was more than fine with Ned being the regent.

 

 

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Renly himself survived a much longer siege in which Stannis managed to keep up resistance at Storm's End. And King's Landing hasn't even been blockaded. KL was still resisting up to the Blackwater, when Stannis actually did arrive after his delay at Storm's End. And of course the various kingdoms managed without the Reach (even being at war with it) prior to unification under Aegon.

There's an important difference between starving out a castle with a thousand people in it and starving off an entire city a million people in it.

King's Landing didnt need to be blockaded, all the food came from the Reach and the Riverlands, Stannis goes to King's Landing two monts after max. Renly was planning on taking his sweet time.

There was never a city of a million people prior to the unification of Aegon, that the city was starving is a fact of the books and a problem. The Blackwater happened soon enough after Renly's death, the city had not gone truly desperate and there had already been a revolt.

 

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"There is no food coming in, is there?" he said to Vylarr.
"Little enough," the captain admitted. "With the war in the riverlands and Lord Renly raising rebels in Highgarden, the roads are closed to south and west."

 

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"Fools." Tyrion had sent them off with regrets; his nephew would send them off with whips and spears. He was half-tempted to allow it . . . but no, he dare not. Soon or late, some enemy would march on King's Landing, and the last thing he wanted was willing traitors within the city walls. "Tell them King Joffrey shares their fears and will do all he can for them."

"They want bread, not promises."

 

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 Stones and dung and fouler things whistled overhead. "Feed us!" a woman shrieked. "Bread" boomed a man behind her. "We want bread, bastard!" In a heartbeat, a thousand voices took up the chant. King Joffrey and King Robb and King Stannis were forgotten, and King Bread ruled alone. "Bread," they clamored. "Bread, bread!"

 

 

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Renly didn't, Robert did. Renly offered swords to use to seize Cersei's children, noting that controlling Joffrey would mean controlling the kingdom. So if swords loyal to Renly surround Joffrey, who has power?

Renly did. Swords loyal to Renly AND Ned so Ned could be confirmed on the regency.

 

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From time to time a king may send out a brother or son with a larger army than the king himself keeps at the capital. But his young kin with the large army is still expected to owe him fealty. The other way around never happens.

Hmm, if the king sends out a brother or son with a larger army. That army still belongs and answers ultimately to the King, he has only delegated it.

This army did  not answer to Stannis,

 

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He dismisses her religion and sarcastically asks if she has an army hidden. Stannis doesn't like women, and assumes Lysa is too frightened to let Sweetrobin come to Dragonstone (he's righter than he knows there). We actually know Lysa was responsible for Jon Arryn's death and LF had told her to keep out of the war, so there wouldn't have been any point to him offering her "justice" for her husband's death.

- Cressen tells him to send Shireen to the Eyrie to broker a marriage pact.

- Stannis admits it's not a bad idea and worth trying.

- Selyse says Stannis would be begging Lysa.

-Stannis rejects Cressen's idea.

I swear to you, this is on the books.

 

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“Then you must send Shireen to the Eyrie,” the maester urged. “Dragonstone is a grim home for a child. Let her fool go with her, so she will have a familiar face about her.” “Familiar and hideous.” Stannis furrowed his brow in thought. “Still … perhaps it is worth the trying …” “Must the rightful Lord of the Seven Kingdoms beg for help from widow women and usurpers?” a woman’s voice asked sharply. Lord Stannis scowled. “I do not beg. Of anyone. Mind you remember that, woman.” “I am pleased to hear it, my lord.” “Lady Arryn owes you her allegiance, as do the Starks, your brother Renly, and all the rest. You are their one true king. It would not be fitting to plead and bargain with them for what is rightfully yours by the grace of god.”  [...] Cressen was horrorstruck. “Fratricide … my lord, this is evil, unthinkable … please, listen to me.” Lady Selyse gave him a measured look. “And what will you tell him, maester? How he might win half a kingdom if he goes to the Starks on his knees and sells our daughter to Lysa Arryn?” “I have heard your counsel, Cressen,” Lord Stannis said. “Now I will hear hers. You are dismissed.”

Brownie points for an info he doesn't have is silly.

 

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He didn't "finally" decide that, he'd already decided on it and announced it. When Mathis objected, Renly dismisses the objection with "And have men say I feared to face Stannis?" If he actually valued Randyll Tarly's opinion that much he would have listened to him about not attacking at Stannis' chosen time, or perhaps let him lead the van since he'd successfully done so before. And since you noted that Loras in the vanguard did well enough at the Blackwater, note that when Loras made an attack on an enemy expecting him (Stannis' remnant on Dragonstone) it was reckless and resulted in needless casualties including life-threatening injuries to himself. It should be noted that there is a reason not to heed Mathis' advice: Cat noted that by racing ahead of his supply train, Renly had thereby put his cavalry at risk.

He decided then tho.

And why rejecting one's opinion means you don't value then?? He listens to him and still considers his plan is better, right or wrong, that doesn't mean he doesn't value his opinions. Do you feel the need to agree with people's opinions to properly value them??

Did Stannis have boiled oil?? Loras did act reckless but he did so because otherwise Redwyne would not return to the Reach to help against the Ironborn. Not the sae situation.

 

 

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I think you forgot to include the quote you were responding to, so I don't know what this is.

Ahm ofc. That Stannis was again counting on other's stupidity in the Battle of Ice.

You do seem to have his pov since you seem to know what he was thinking then.

 

 

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Like what? There's only one battle he lost, and we don't know what he could have done differently.

Not attacking a vastly superior army on their turf. Sounds familiar??

 

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We have Renly's enemies all discounting him because of his inexperience at war, and when we actually see his plans for better we see multiple mistakes which he rationalizes with "What would people say". The whole point of the "knights of the summer" bit is that they're overly optimistic youngsters and don't know what they're in for.

1. Tyrion has no experience at war and he did well enough. Robb was discounted too (by Stannis and Tywin, I'm sure Martin wants us to take notice)and he too did well enough. 
2. Stannis makes multiple mistakes that he rationalizes with "what would people say". And he doesn't make multiple mistakes...
3. I'm going to tell you a secret. Stannis was a knight of the summer once, and Ned, and Barristan and Robert and Robb and Tywin and... The idea that being knight of the summer implies. 

 

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The Lannisters were going to let everyone in the North exhaust themselves fighting each other so they could then send Tyrion to Winterfell and take it away from the Boltons. Jaime does get sent to the Riverlands to deal with the Blackfish, but they don't send anyone past the Neck. And it should be noted that LF figured that he & fugitive Sansa would be safe from the Lannisters in the Vale even before Tywin died.

That really doesn't matter. No one would have supported Stannis   while Tywin was alive

 

 

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Indeed, the rest of his men were expecting a battle with Stannis awake & participating. We know his sleep was magical because in his dreams he saw what Cat saw (this also explains why Devan couldn't wake him), and this wasn't part of any plan his men had. We don't need to hear the actual plan his army had for the battle, because it never happened.

We know his plans for battle tho. Sleep and kill his brother and then get his army. That did happen. As a good trick should be always be repeated at least once he does the exact same  for Penrose,

 

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"Perhaps Stannis observed (or even deliberately tested this effect) when he drew the sword at the parley". Am I obligated to believe every "perhaps" in any work I cite? I think it would wake more sense to test it earlier in a more controlled environment. I do think this scene exists so the reader can learn about it.

The reader can learn about a sword that reflects light... reflecting light?? Good ol tinfoil.

 

 

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Stannis doesn't take the view that Cersei shouldn't be punished. What he's rejecting is Robb as king of an independent North while Stannis is left with "half a kingdom". It's unreasonable for him to take that stance in his position, but it's not a deviation from his strict stance.

He doesn't  need to do the latter.

He says: "Why should I avenge Eddard Stark? The man was nothing to me. Oh, Robert loved him, to be sure. Loved him as a brother, how often did I hear that? I was his brother, not Ned Stark, but you would never have known it by the way he treated me."

This is Stannis knowing that a man had been unjustly killed and still refusing to do justice because he resents that man. Do you know what's the difference between the latter acts and the prologue?? That Cressenknows him perfectly and he doesn't have to pretend or hide himself. 

Which is why he tells Cressen this, he tells Davos and Cat that he would get Cersei's head for killing him. That's also the reason why even when he openly discusses the best ways of killing Renly in the prologue he latter says Davos that he didn't want to kill him.

That's how Stannis truly feels.

 

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Many battles have been won by the smaller force when the larger force falls apart after a setback. It wasn't sheer numbers that defeated Mance Rayder. The wildlings just weren't organized enough to withstand such an attack.

It was sheer numbers what defeated Stannis and it was sheer number why he was winning and it was sheer numbers...

 

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He's banking on the decisions made by an inexperienced commander, who put Loras in the vanguard making that first charge. In the Battle of Ice, he also banks on Hosteen Frey being stupid.

I still don't know why Loras is a bad decision. Stannis makes Ser Guyard the leader of his vanguard and he's any more experienced than the Tyrells.

The latter does not confirm the latter.

 

 

[Minsc]

2 hours ago, frenin said:

Cat noted that Renly had out himself in a precararious position... just like Robert would have done. Now, are all of Robert's victories due to Ned??

It also should be noted that Catelyn's criticism how is in direct contrast to her previous criticism of Renly.  She was previously upset that Renly was too slow and precautious thinking he should move quicker against the Lannisters (the opponent she wants him to focus on).  Only for her to believe he is moving too quickly when he is moving against the opponent she would rather ally with before allying with Robb.

 

That all being logic would support Renly be more precautious attacking the Lannisters who are stronger and who are housed in territory that he doesn't otherwise control.  Meanwhile, a quick strike to take out at Stannis makes sense as Stannis is much weaker and could easily be taken all at once.  Secondly all the territory surrounding Stannis is friendly to Renly that he could easily gather supplies from a nearby castle if he needed.  Seriously, if Tywin and Robb can keep their armies feed while invading hostile territory I am sure Renly can keep his army supplied within his own lands.

 

2 hours ago, frenin said:

The reader can learn about a sword that reflects light... reflecting light?? Good ol tinfoil.

I also want to mention that the Nightlamp theory would be worse writing than D&D's Twenty Good Men.  A small number of enemy forces inflitrating an army's camp and burning supplies actually some basis in realty.  Stannis turning his sword into some light that blinds his opponent's army while not affecting his own is pretty far fetched.  Why is Stannis's sword acting like a flashlight/stoplight with the light only getting in the eyes of the opposing army? Shouldn't it be more like a flame thus spreading the light all around thus blinding Stannis's army the same as his opponents?  Furthermore, wouldn't Stannis need to be in the clear front (thus in immeditate danger) for this "tactic" to work?

[Trigger Warning]

I don't see the narrative point in Renly being killed by magic in the midst of his overwhelming power if... lol Stannis was gonna win anyway, beyond that I don't think I have the energy for this anymore. Stannis was in a terrible position and these arguments are just people making mountains out of Renly's molehills whilst ignoring the actual mountain of shit Stannis has parked his tiny army on whilst they assume that Renly's 20,000 men are just gonna disintegrate and rout if one charge goes badly. 

If Stannis won it'd be an absolute fluke. 

[Minsc]

23 minutes ago, Trigger Warning said:

I don't see the narrative point in Renly being killed by magic in the midst of his overwhelming power if... lol Stannis was gonna win anyway, beyond that I don't think I have the energy for this anymore.

Additionally, if Stannis had some great plan to defeat Renly with "lightbringer" shouldn't have Mel been for that plan?  What would be a greaer sign of R'hllor's power than his sword defeating an army four times the size of its bearer's host.

[Angel Eyes]

There are a number of inconsistencies regarding Renly. In ACOK Renly is dismissive of Stannis’ allegations of the incest between Cersei and Jaime and seems to view himself and Stannis as equally wrong claimants to the throne since it’s terribly convenient that Stannis, as the one with the most to gain from the claims (we know they’re true but nobody else confirms them in-universe), is the one making the accusations and has had a famously stormy relationship with Robert, is just looking for a power trip. Yet in AGOT he is trying to have Cersei replaced with Margaery; since Robert has a lot to lose politically and financially by setting Cersei aside and only a fanatic like Baelor the Blessed/Befuddled sets aside their wife, this indicates he does know and is a massive hypocrite... which unfortunately is likely since Renly doesn’t care about the rules outside of “big army, bigger chances” (technically not true since Robert beat Rhaegar with a smaller army but Renly doesn’t care for that amount of detail). Renly and Loras are just asking for trouble by trying to have Robert set Cersei aside for Margaery; Robert won’t keep a leash on Joffrey if he doesn’t feel like it (most of the time) and Joffrey would kill Robert’s children by Margaery if he felt like it.

[Minsc]

6 minutes ago, Angel Eyes said:

Yet in AGOT he is trying to have Cersei replaced with Margaery; since Robert has a lot to lose politically and financially by setting Cersei aside and only a fanatic like Baelor the Blessed/Befuddled sets aside their wife, this indicates he does know and is a massive hypocrite

Margaery coming from the powerful Tyrell family helps counter any losses politically or financially.  It isn't like Renly was attempting it with some household knight's daughter with big tits.  Kings and lords can set aside their wives. Cersei even fears Robert will be put aside when talking with Jaime when Bran catches them in the act.  Note her worry was being put aside, not executed so she was not worried about the incest being discovered. Renly has no reason to keep the incest a secret.

[Angel Eyes]

3 minutes ago, Minsc said:

Margaery coming from the powerful Tyrell family helps counter any losses politically or financially.  It isn't like Renly was attempting it with some household knight's daughter with big tits.  Kings and lords can set aside their wives. Cersei even fears Robert will be put aside when talking with Jaime when Bran catches them in the act.  Note her worry was being put aside, not executed so she was not worried about the incest being discovered. Renly has no reason to keep the incest a secret.

Well yeah they can set aside their wives, they typically don’t; not even Aerys I, who is cargo-shipped with books even in-universe, ever decided to set aside Aelinor Penrose. 

When did I say that Renly was interested in keeping the incest a secret? He wouldn’t care, he’d seize the opportunity to advance himself via the Tyrells.

[Minsc]

1 minute ago, Angel Eyes said:

Well yeah they can set aside their wives, they typically don’t; not even Aerys I, who is cargo-shipped with books even in-universe, ever decided to set aside Aelinor Penrose. 

When did I say that Renly was interested in keeping the incest a secret? He wouldn’t care, he’d seize the opportunity to advance himself via the Tyrells.

That just means Renly's plan would likely not work.  Not that he knew about the incest.

Renly if he knew would have reason to spread it around.  Nor would there be any reason for him to call Stannis's story false when just talking to Stannis and Catelyn.

[Angel Eyes]

1 minute ago, Minsc said:

That just means Renly's plan would likely not work.  Not that he knew about the incest.

Renly if he knew would have reason to spread it around.  Nor would there be any reason for him to call Stannis's story false when just talking to Stannis and Catelyn.

If he didn’t know, why were he and Loras pushing Margaery at Robert without regard as to how much Margaery would be screwed over down the road?

[Minsc]

Just now, Angel Eyes said:

If he didn’t know, why were he and Loras pushing Margaery at Robert without regard as to how much Margaery would be screwed over down the road?

Because they believed their plan would work and Robert being controlled by his id would ditch his annoying harpy of a wife for the girl they hope would remind him of Lyanna.  Why does Cersei worry Robert will set her aside rather than execute her when talking to Jaime?

[Trigger Warning]

4 hours ago, Angel Eyes said:

If he didn’t know, why were he and Loras pushing Margaery at Robert without regard as to how much Margaery would be screwed over down the road?

Because Cersei is the heart of Lannister influence at court, simply getting her away from that position and sticking in Margaery opens up Robert's reign to the Tyrells. They could potentially have many years to reap the benefit of Robert's patronage and by the time Joffrey ascends the throne or if he even ascends the throne he may be in no position or even have the desire to do much about it. Even as a mistress she has potential to lessen the grasp of the Lannisters on Robert. 

[FictionIsntReal]

On 3/27/2021 at 8:28 PM, frenin said:

And wouldn't a legitimized bastard work together on such project??

Edric Storm never actually did, although admittedly since he's young we wouldn't necessarily expect it.

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Blood over "shared political project"... Does seem difficult.

Stannis is both blood and has an official position in Robert's regime.

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And Stannis felt cheated and kept complaining about it for 15 years and when he was ot giving the Handship and again??

That's an example of Stannis failing to understand Robert's intentions. He took it at a slight, whereas Robert was just being carelessly generous to his then-heirs.

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Robert named him his heir because he didn't really have much, he does have more now

He has more official children, but we're talking about what happens after they get ruled out. Mya was a girl and thus prohibited by the Iron Precedent assuming the Baratheons still followed that, but it seems like Robert mostly forgot about her until Joffrey opened up that cat.

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There's a myriad of things that we know about Stannis without him being a POV character

A myriad of things, but not everything. Our limited access to Stannis, particularly during that time, is relevant for how we evaluate any particular absence of evidence. And it's more expected for us to have evidence of something which has lasted for a long time, or that continues to remain relevant in the present.

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And if he's whole schtick is being a hard man who just grits his teeth... Why would he be afraid??

That doesn't mean he's dumb enough to stand around with a target on his back.

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I wonder how do you even know that Stannis stopped believing in the gods

I can know a limited selection of things he does think. I can't know what he NEVER thinks, but I don't get to know EVERY thing he thinks. Particularly before he appears on the page.

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When talking about how hed'd clean house as Robert should have, strangely enough, Pycelle's name doesn't come out.

The king doesn't appoint the Grand Maester, the Citadel does. And he doesn't know Pycelle betrayed Aerys like Tyrion learns. Pycelle's instead just always talking about how great Tywin is, which isn't actually a crime.

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Nor i think Pycelle was unsubtle, the only time he truly shows he's a partisan is during the whole Gregor sentence.

Pycelle wants to portray Jon Arryn's death as natural and is visibly uncomfortable when Ned suggests poison. When Ned brings up that poison is a woman's weapon, Pycelle very unsubtly tries to shift blame to Varys instead.

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Stannis himself goes on record admiting Ned's honorability and acknowledging the bond him and Robert shared

The question is not whether Ned is honorable, but whether Stannis could convince him of the truth of his claims (without the two bastards in KL to point to, and before Cersei's kids arrive in your hypothetical) and get Ned's support in convincing Robert.

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So you have decided on your own, that since you don't have a quote of Stannis ever hinting fear.

I am using Ned's logic and making a deduction with the additional information I have. Ned wasn't able to ask Stannis and get a quote.

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Ned's going to be that?

Going to be what?

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Ned doesn't know that Stannis threw a fit of rage because he was not named Hand before leaving. His thoughts wouldn't have been the same,

There's a whole lot more he doesn't know about Lysa but his two possibilities of guilt or fear turn out to be correct in her case (though everyone assumes fear when it turns out to be guilt).

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He is abandoning his brother (s) to die.

You don't flee out of guilt for fleeing, that's circular.

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The list doesn't begin with him.

 

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If Father could only see me now, he would not be so quick to speak of marrying me off again. A pity he's so dead. Him and Robert, Jon Arryn, Ned Stark, Renly Baratheon, all dead.

Should I say it begins with "Father" instead of "Him"?

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Even Kettleback isn't sent to kill Stannis, only Jon.

Stannis isn't going to be that exposed to a new NW recruit, and he's going to be surrounded by his knights. Of course, her plan never gets close to that point because she's a fool and everything she does blows up in her face.

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I know, more fool of her, for fearing Stannis.

It's Tywin & Tyrion who fear Stannis, because they are not fools. Cersei doesn't fear the High Sparrow, because she's an arrogant fool.

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Now, i don't know why he should tell Ned what a terrible choice Cersei would be as regent... He didn't expect Robert to die soon.

But you said the motivation behing the Margaery plot was fear of Cersei. If he doesn't expect Robert to die soon enough to be regent, what did he have to be afraid of?

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He betrothed Lyanna before he got to be King and had dynastic pressures.

And he's still complaining about how he didn't want to marry anyone after he was crowned and he heard of Lyanna's death. He clearly regrets not sticking to his guns against Jon Arryn's advice there, and calls him a "bigger fool than Moon Boy" for it. I don't get the takeaway from that he "knows especially that there certain things he must even if he doesn't like it"! Maybe there are other things he doesn't want to do that Ned can persuade him on, but this is an area he's convinced he was originally right about.

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Still without tools to uphold it, it's irrelevant. Else, Viserys would sit on the Iron Throne,

Viserys' claim comes through Aerys, and the entire Baratheon regime is founded on opposition to Aerys.

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When she hears about the children being illegitimate, she doesn't think it's her duty to bend to Stannis.

The only reason Cat seemingly gave a damn about the Baratheon brother's was because it would prevent a fight between them

 

Renly asks about the implications of Stannis' claim, and Cat replies that it makes Stannis the rightful heir of Robert. Later she suggests to Brienne that Stannis is "our rightful king" even if he evilly killed Renly. At the same time she says it's not up to her whether Robb will bend the knee to Stannis. Robb assumes that Stannis (whom Edmure regards as "no enemy of ours") taking KL would have ended the war.

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Ned doesn't participate on the War of the 5 Kings.

There aren't multiple declared kings at the time, but Ned does send Beric to lead a group of knights against Gregor Clegane in the Riverlands. That is the initial outbreak of military conflict in the war. And Robb incorporates the Riverlands into his own proclaimed northern kingdom, taking on the defense against all the raiders Tywin sent into that area.

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Edmure was the acting Great lord for all intents and purposes and he didn't care either.If that caring isn't traduced in support

Edmure dismisses the notion of replying to Cortnay Penrose' raven because "we have neither help nor hope to offer" and (as noted) Stannis isn't an enemy. The northmen & rivermen are in a different theater of the war, so any allegiance to Stannis wouldn't have any relevance yet. Even Robb & Edmure fail to coordinate when Robb goes off to raid the Westerlands.

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The Westerosi care about proper succession laws, then it means they simply don't want Stannis on the throne unless it's their only option.

Robb seems like he would have been fine with Stannis on the throne, which is why he's disappointed that Stannis didn't take KL. It's Joffrey & the Lannisters he doesn't want there.

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It's one of the thing he brings up. The order of factors does not alter the product

Again, people tend to bring up the most important factors first. Not doing so is called "burying the lede", and is also the foundation for jokey tropes like "Bread, Eggs, Milk, Squick".

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And their support went to...

Nobody.

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Where would Stannis be without the hype lines...

The implication of Tywin & Tyrion's "hype lines" is not that Stannis can take KL without many men. It's that they don't take Renly nearly as seriously as a threat.

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Nope, we were discussing the former

We were discussing a lot of things, although I don't think the question of how a hypothetical Great Council would have gone came up. We only know Renly scoffed at the idea.

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Stannis's command is a force multiplier?? Said who??

Common factors considered to be force multipliers include reputation, experience, strategy & tactics. Stannis has that reputation because he's known to be an experienced commander. We also know he studies historical strategies in war.

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We see a desperate man

That characterization seems a bit at odds with the notion that he's too proud to even ask for help.

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And they were taking into account the fact that they did not what he was up to.

Renly? Here's Tyrion's take: "were I he, I would do much as he is doing. Make my progress, flaunt my power for the realm to see, watch, wait. Let my rivals contend while I bide my own sweet time"

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Tywin  and Stannis also dismiss Robb for the very same thing, he had not lead men to war and he's a green boy... Is that correct then??

In that case, they turned out to be incorrect. Robb turned out to be a naturally talented commander from the start, like Daeron I. We don't observe him repeatedly ignore military advice on the basis of "What will people think?", nor does Cat think Ned would have prevented him from his actions. Nothing Renly does with his army surprises anyone.

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Bear in mind that after Stannis's defeat, Tywin, now more aware of his foe's situation, says that his sun has set.

The situation itself has changed. And Tywin still thinks he needs to address Stannis' "disgusting slander", because perceived legitimacy actually does matter.

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And Aerys's favourite was Viserys. Viserys was "older" but also a child needed of regency.

The length of the regency matters: "an infant king would have meant a long, contentious regency". That's listed before the defects of Maegor's father. Aegon VI was an infant, while Viserys was not.

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And you're literally saying that said law it's false

I didn't say the law was false, I said a child ruler really was set aside, which is precisely the thing you denied. Stannis & Renly are both adults, so there would be no regency for either. That makes them rather different from Tommen, who would require nearly a decade of regency.

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He doesn't need to sail to Bitterbridge, he can go to Bitterbridge afoot.

Stannis' advantage is in ships, so it makes sense for him to go to coastal areas. He doesn't have as many horses, so travel over land would be much slower.

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And the vassals he intends to claim on are also in the Reach

The place Davos goes to treat with lords is the Stormlands.

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String of victories=/ Decisive victory

Robb destroyed the army the Lannisters were raising in the Westerlands, as well as Jaime's earlier. These are not indecisive victories like Randyll Tarly at Ashford or Tywin at the Green Fork. A victory decisive enough to actually end the war would be a very big ask within that timeframe of a few months. Robert Baratheon wasn't so fast, despite the odd temporal compression of Robert's Rebellion.

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I didn't bring Emmon Frey

Ah, you're right, that was John Suburbs.

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Mathis Rowan does not make the same point not even similar

Catelyn notes that Renly has rushed his cavalry ahead of his host, thus putting him at risk of running low on supplies, whereas he should have waited for his entire host to arrive to surround & besiege Stannis' own army. Mathis argues that Renly's entire host (he would logically need more than just cavalry for a siege) should go to King's Landing because Storm's End can withstand Stannis' siege. Thus there was no need for Renly to rush there in the first place.

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Renly actually decides to attack because he listens to Tarly

Because he'd already decided to do that and persisted in disagreeing with Rowan BEFORE Tarly spoke up. When Tarly objects to attacking at dawn specifically, Renly dismisses that on basically the same grounds on which he'd dismissed Rowan.

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Not bending the knee to Stannis would also be sufficient to get rid of Cersei and Tywin, Tyrion, Kevan...

Renly didn't bend the knee and he didn't accomplish any of those things, so no it wasn't sufficient.

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Renly did.

He offered swords to seize Cersei's children after Ned had alredy been named regent, he did not "give the Kingdom to Ned". He left when Ned turned down that strategy, without the kingdom ever passing hands between them.

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Stannis admits it's not a bad idea and worth trying.

Selyse didn't convince him it was a bad idea. It was hearing of Melisandre's vision that convinced him he could get an army without having to send away Shireen or depending on fearful Lysa's response. And the army consisted of the same Stormlords he'd earlier sent Davos to treat with.

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Did Stannis have boiled oil??

Defenders in a siege would more typically use boiling water, as it's much cheaper. Stannis could definitely make that, but having it at a height to drop it from would be another story.

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That Stannis was again counting on other's stupidity in the Battle of Ice.

 

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Strangely, Stannis smiled. "Angry foes do not concern me. Anger makes men stupid, and Hosteen Frey was stupid to begin with, if half of what I have heard of him is true. Let him come."

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Not attacking a vastly superior army on their turf.

Robert wasn't attacking an army already in place, which is why most of Mace's forces hadn't even arrived before Tarly won the battle. Of course, we don't actually know many of the details about Ashford such as why Robert went there in the first place.

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Tyrion has no experience at war and he did well enough

Tyrion reads up on military history, which is how he knows Randyll Tarly rather than Mace Tyrell actually won Ashford. Per Loras, Renly didn't care for reading. Tyrion was also defending a fortified position rather than having to do the war of manuever that Robert was known for.

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I'm going to tell you a secret. Stannis was a knight of the summer once

During a war? His first command was at Storm's End, where we don't hear of him sending out daring sorties to rout the Tyrells, but instead just maintaining discipline while the castle slowly starved.

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The idea that being knight of the summer implies.

It looks like you forgot the last clause of that sentence. What I'd say it implies is a rude awakening as winter/reality inevitably hits them in the face.

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No one would have supported Stannis   while Tywin was alive

Because they're afraid of Tywin? LF wasn't once he got to the Vale.

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We know his plans for battle tho. Sleep and kill his brother and then get his army.

We know he couldn't be awakened when Devan attempted to, we don't know that was Stannis' actual plan. And if we look at Melisandre's subsequent actions, she's hardly straightforward & honest in her prophecies. We hear early on that she sees Renly's death (though she also saw "Renly's" victory at KL). Later she claims she needs king's blood to kill the other three kings, but all of them were killed by their existing enemies (outside of Stannis' camp) rather than any shadows. Furthermore, Daenerys had already seen a vision of Robb Stark dead well before any of those leeches and Cersei had already heard a prophecy of all her children dying before her. And of course Edric Storm was sent away before he could actually be sacrificed. Those three kings died without any actual help from Melisandre, but she wanted Stannis to think Edric Storm's blood was necessary. This is because Melisandre is openly uninterested in mundane Westerosi politics (unlike Stannis) and focused on a larger Manichean story about Light against Dark in which she believes Stannis has a central role. She's entirely willing to say misleading things to people about her prophecies because she wants them to believe and thinks such deceptions are permitted for her larger cause. Once her prophecies are vindicated then people become more convinced and willing to do the things she wants.

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The reader can learn about a sword that reflects light... reflecting light??

The reader had already seen Melisandre had performed a ritual on the sword, and we see that it is indeed magicked. We see here that Stannis has it ready to draw for the battle, and the effect it has on horses (which Jon also notices at the Wall).

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This is Stannis knowing that a man had been unjustly killed and still refusing to do justice

Ned Stark distinguished between vengeance & justice for Gregor Clegane, and you must as well: "I have no doubt that Cersei had a hand in Robert's death. I will have justice for him. Aye, and for Ned Stark and Jon Arryn as well." Ned didn't permit Loras to hunt down Gregor precisely because Gregor had wronged him by trying to kill him, and Stannis isn't going to permit Robb Stark to satisfy any of own personal desires. In some ways Stannis' politics are innapropriately modern & impersonal for what Max Weber would call a "charismatic" system of government, but part of the point of this story is about dealing with impersonal abstractions like "justice" weighed against your personal interests & desires.

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it was sheer number why he was winning

"I smashed Mance Rayder at the Wall, though he had twenty times my numbers"

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I still don't know why Loras is a bad decision

Loras could do a good job leading the van, or a bad one. However, Renly has someone that he already knows led a vanguard to the only victory against Robert Baratheon: Randyll Tarly. A priori, he's probably the best person to lead it. But the main issue is that Renly is entirely reliant on the first charge from this. He assumes that will break Stannis' forces so that the sun blinding his own troops won't be a problem. He doesn't have his infantry in case his cavalry fall short. And if Loras gets captured, that's way more leverage than if it were Randyll.

@Minsc

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She was previously upset that Renly was too slow and precautious thinking he should move quicker against the Lannisters

She thought he should have been moving his entire host more quickly, not rushing to attack the Lannisters with just his cavalry far from his supply lines.

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Meanwhile, a quick strike to take out at Stannis makes sense as Stannis is much weaker and could easily be taken all at once

This is true enough that there's an important point you didn't note: Stannis is not fortified behind stone walls.

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Secondly all the territory surrounding Stannis is friendly to Renly that he could easily gather supplies from a nearby castle if he needed

The nearest castle is being besieged by Stannis, and thus cut off from supplying Renly. Renly could go further away to another castle in the Stormlands, but that just goes back to the point about how he didn't need to force a battle right now.

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Stannis turning his sword into some light that blinds his opponent's army while not affecting his own

Stannis is a lot less reliant on cavalry than his opponents. And he can better prepare for the reveal of Lightbringer since he's the one doing it.

@Trigger Warning

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I don't see the narrative point in Renly being killed by magic in the midst of his overwhelming power if... lol Stannis was gonna win anyway

Stannis winning the battle was not a foregone conclusion a priori, and importantly he was trying to acquire men. The bloodier the battle is, the fewer he gets.

@Minsc

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if Stannis had some great plan to defeat Renly with "lightbringer" shouldn't have Mel been for that plan?

Mel does give him Lightbringer after Stannis hears about her vision and decides to go along with her idea. Melisandre isn't simply some believer in Stannis is a really effective military leader though, she thinks he has divine importance. So she's not going to take a risk on some battle, and instead she does something which will firmly convince Stannis of her prophetic powers in a way he can't instead ascribe to any mundane factors. Because she doesn't merely plan on killing Renly and Edric Storm. She needs Stannis to be willing to sacrifice those things dearest to him, just as Azor Ahai did with Nissa Nissa. We know where this is ultimately going, even if Stannis wouldn't have agreed had he known from the beginning.

@Angel Eyes

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only a fanatic like Baelor the Blessed/Befuddled sets aside their wife

Importantly, Baelor never consummated his marriage, and thus had no children.

@Minsc

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she was not worried about the incest being discovered

Yes she was. She thought Lysa might have heard something from Jon Arryn and will be willing to talk up now that Sweetrobin won't be in Tywin's hands.

@Angel Eyes

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not even Aerys I, who is cargo-shipped with books even in-universe, ever decided to set aside Aelinor Penrose

Also no children because it doesn't seem he had any interest in sex. It's believed he never consummated his marriage, hence it being said that Aelinor "remains a maid".

@Minsc

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Robert being controlled by his id would ditch his annoying harpy of a wife for the girl they hope would remind him of Lyanna

Robert had been controlled by his id for a long time but never had so much as a long-term mistress.

@Trigger Warning

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They could potentially have many years to reap the benefit of Robert's patronage [...] Even as a mistress she has potential to lessen the grasp of the Lannisters on Robert.

Robert has never had a long-term mistress. He seems to quickly grow bored of whoever he sleeps with.

[frenin]

16 hours ago, FictionIsntReal said:

Edric Storm never actually did, although admittedly since he's young we wouldn't necessarily expect it.

Sure because he was never actually legitimized.

 

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Stannis is both blood and has an official position in Robert's regime.

Stannis does act as if Robert was his neglecting father but he's still his brother, Edric is his son.

 

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That's an example of Stannis failing to understand Robert's intentions. He took it at a slight, whereas Robert was just being carelessly generous to his then-heirs.

Just as the Handship?? Robert had heirs of his own and he didn't change even when he knew how it pissed Stannis.

 

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He has more official children, but we're talking about what happens after they get ruled out. Mya was a girl and thus prohibited by the Iron Precedent assuming the Baratheons still followed that, but it seems like Robert mostly forgot about her until Joffrey opened up that cat.

1. Iron Precedent is completely irrelevant, it comes down to whether she would have more support than Stannis.
2. I don't think that the Baratheons follow that precedent, else why would Stannis attempt to make Renly his heir if he already was (he was his heir by default because Shireen).
3. Since they are separated by House, it seems that all the members of the House need to die out.
4. Edric is still a far better option than Stannis.

 

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A myriad of things, but not everything. Our limited access to Stannis, particularly during that time, is relevant for how we evaluate any particular absence of evidence. And it's more expected for us to have evidence of something which has lasted for a long time, or that continues to remain relevant in the present.

We know almost everything that is relevant without him being a POV, either him, his confidants or his men are more than willing to give us some needed insight. Had Stannis been afraid, someone would have pointed out, no one does. It's pure denial. Btw, how him being afraid is not relevant in the present again?

We do have evidence of  Stannis preparing for the war way before Robert's death. 

 

 

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That doesn't mean he's dumb enough to stand around with a target on his back.

A made up target on his back, he actually stood around until he knew he was not going to be Hand, He was more than happy to "risk his neck" then but he inmediately leaves when Cersei and her cohort leave for Winterfell. And he would have remained had he been named Hand of the King... even when the last Hand had just been killed. So he is actually by priorities, not fear.

He never says that he is afraid, his actions are the one of someone preparing for a war. Yet let's take your word for it?

You're still not telling me why wouldn't he mention it.

 

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I can know a limited selection of things he does think. I can't know what he NEVER thinks, but I don't get to know EVERY thing he thinks. Particularly before he appears on the page.

You don't  need to know when he feels like pissing. Stannis goes on and on about a lot of things he felt before appearing on the page.

There are several characters that gives us isinght on Stannis, besides himself. None ever mention fear. Yet not based on your own bias that he felt that.  You're the one asking for Renly's quotes and dismissing his actual words, yet you made up Stannis's mind as we speak without actual need of the book.

 

 

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The king doesn't appoint the Grand Maester, the Citadel does. And he doesn't know Pycelle betrayed Aerys like Tyrion learns. Pycelle's instead just always talking about how great Tywin is, which isn't actually a crime.

No noble pick their maester, the Citadel does, yet the nobles can fire them or pick new ones.

It's prerrogative of the king whether a specifical Grand Maester remains on his council or not, the King can always demand the Citadel for another one or simply arrange his murder and take a new one (especially if Stannis believes him dangerous).

As i said, there's no evidence of Stannis ever suspecting Pycelle, so the idea of him doing it because Ned did is... convenient.

 

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Pycelle wants to portray Jon Arryn's death as natural and is visibly uncomfortable when Ned suggests poison. When Ned brings up that poison is a woman's weapon, Pycelle very unsubtly tries to shift blame to Varys instead.

"Unsubtly".

That can mean that Pycelle is trying to protect a woman, that doesn't mean he's trying to protect Cersei... unless you have benefit of hindsight or you're already predisposed against them.

 

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The question is not whether Ned is honorable, but whether Stannis could convince him of the truth of his claims (without the two bastards in KL to point to, and before Cersei's kids arrive in your hypothetical) and get Ned's support in convincing Robert.

1. Yes, he can. If there was someone ready to think the worst about the Lannisters was Ned.
2. If there was someone who without a doubt had Robert's back was Ned, so even if Ned didn't believe him, the very fact of his surrogate dying because of that affair would spur Ned to take the matter seriously enough.
3. Stannis would get to Winterfell weeks before Robert, he would have had enough time getting Ned's attention just by that.
4. Stannis didn't try because Stannis doesn't like Ned and because Stannis wanted Robert to die without legit heirs so he could get the throne.

 

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I am using Ned's logic and making a deduction with the additional information I have. Ned wasn't able to ask Stannis and get a quote.

Nope, you're using Ned's without all the context thoughts and pretending they are the only logical outcomes because one of them suits your thoughts and the other is false. Textbook confirmation bias.

Inmaterial because Ned's logic it's not Stannis's.

 

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Going to be what?

Your proof quote. 

 

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There's a whole lot more he doesn't know about Lysa but his two possibilities of guilt or fear turn out to be correct in her case (though everyone assumes fear when it turns out to be guilt).

Lysa is not Stannis. So again...

Had Ned had all the clues would he have made the same deduction?? Unlikely. He would have asked himsel why the hell is Stannis calling his banners for if there's no war going on.

 

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You don't flee out of guilt for fleeing, that's circular.

Stannis didn't flee. He simply stole the Royal Fleet and left. He was waiting for his brother to die.

Stannis is abandoning his brother (s) to die and there is some guilt there.

 

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Should I say it begins with "Father" instead of "Him"?

No, you simply need to keep reading until where it comes to Tyrion.

 

 

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Stannis isn't going to be that exposed to a new NW recruit, and he's going to be surrounded by his knights. Of course, her plan never gets close to that point because she's a fool and everything she does blows up in her face.

Knew that was coming.

 

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It's Tywin & Tyrion who fear Stannis, because they are not fools. Cersei doesn't fear the High Sparrow, because she's an arrogant fool.

Neither Tywin nor Stannis feared Robb,  Stannis was not particularly wary of Tyrion until the Blackwater and... 

Tywin & Tyrion fear Stannis because they believe that you're an expert military commander by leading troops twice.  It seems that the world is divided by Tywin  & Tyrion and the fools.

 

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But you said the motivation behing the Margaery plot was fear of Cersei. If he doesn't expect Robert to die soon enough to be regent, what did he have to be afraid of?

He had to fear her influence on Robert, the soon that influence is removed and Robert and the future king are out of her clutch the better.

 

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Viserys' claim comes through Aerys, and the entire Baratheon regime is founded on opposition to Aerys.

His claim rests upon the Baratheon regime illegitimacy.  Irrelevant right?? Since hammers and all that.

 

 

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Renly asks about the implications of Stannis' claim, and Cat replies that it makes Stannis the rightful heir of Robert. Later she suggests to Brienne that Stannis is "our rightful king" even if he evilly killed Renly. At the same time she says it's not up to her whether Robb will bend the knee to Stannis. Robb assumes that Stannis (whom Edmure regards as "no enemy of ours") taking KL would have ended the war.

Yet she still doesn't suggest bending the knee to him, neither ever does Robb for that matter.

 

 

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There aren't multiple declared kings at the time, but Ned does send Beric to lead a group of knights against Gregor Clegane in the Riverlands. That is the initial outbreak of military conflict in the war. And Robb incorporates the Riverlands into his own proclaimed northern kingdom, taking on the defense against all the raiders Tywin sent into that area.

Saying that that is the initial outbreak of military conflict in the war is as true as saying that the kingswoord brotherhood is just a prelude of the Robellion. The outbreak of military conflict is the Golden Tooth, where two armies clash.

 

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Edmure dismisses the notion of replying to Cortnay Penrose' raven because "we have neither help nor hope to offer" and (as noted) Stannis isn't an enemy. The northmen & rivermen are in a different theater of the war, so any allegiance to Stannis wouldn't have any relevance yet. Even Robb & Edmure fail to coordinate when Robb goes off to raid the Westerlands.

Yes, Edmure didn't care about either Baratheon, he didn't consider Stannis an enemy just as no one considered Remly an enemy and that's why Cat was sent to negotiate with him. That certainly does not mean, they were intending on bending the knee to him.

They were not intending on allegiance...

 

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Robb seems like he would have been fine with Stannis on the throne, which is why he's disappointed that Stannis didn't take KL. It's Joffrey & the Lannisters he doesn't want there.

He doesn't seem so tho. He seems disappointed that the Lannisters still hold it.

 

 

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Again, people tend to bring up the most important factors first. Not doing so is called "burying the lede", and is also the foundation for jokey tropes like "Bread, Eggs, Milk, Squick".

They tend to bring them at their pace and if they go on and on about the last thing they have said, it's pretty obvious what their intentions really.

If someone says to you first that he hates sundays and then he spends 20 minutes talking about whether he has to go to the doctor... What do you think it's on his head?

 

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Nobody.

The Lannisters are not nobody.

 

 

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The implication of Tywin & Tyrion's "hype lines" is not that Stannis can take KL without many men. It's that they don't take Renly nearly as seriously as a threat.

Indeed.

 

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We were discussing a lot of things, although I don't think the question of how a hypothetical Great Council would have gone came up. We only know Renly scoffed at the idea.

We were never discussing ability on command until you strawman it here. We were simply discussing support.

I think we all know how it would've gone, not good for Stannis, nothing that implies election would ever go good for him.  Ofc he scoffed at the idea, he's the one with the largest army ever assembled.

 

 

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Common factors considered to be force multipliers include reputation, experience, strategy & tactics. Stannis has that reputation because he's known to be an experienced commander. We also know he studies historical strategies in war.

And yet, he's badly beaten whenever he doesn't have superior numbers or facing a camp of wildlings. You seem to have better opinion of him that the man has of himself. Else he would not be rumiating about what to do in the prologue, he would have attacked either Renly or  King's Landing right away.

 

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That characterization seems a bit at odds with the notion that he's too proud to even ask for help.

Well it certainly isn't. Stannis is desperate enough to kill his nephew later and he's not asking for help either. 

Stannis is desperate enough to kill his kin, not to "beg". And i don't know how it's at odds, that's exactly how we see him.

 

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Renly? Here's Tyrion's take: "were I he, I would do much as he is doing. Make my progress, flaunt my power for the realm to see, watch, wait. Let my rivals contend while I bide my own sweet time"

Stannis. 

The reason they "feared" Stannis so much is simply because they didn't know what he was up to, after the Blackwater, Tywin says that his sun has set and only briefly worries again after Oberyn's death.

 

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In that case, they turned out to be incorrect. Robb turned out to be a naturally talented commander from the start, like Daeron I. We don't observe him repeatedly ignore military advice on the basis of "What will people think?", nor does Cat think Ned would have prevented him from his actions. Nothing Renly does with his army surprises anyone.

- We observe Stannis doing that repeatedly and he is supposed to be "The" Commander.

- Cat never thinks that Renly's actions are mistakes, as she was not implying that Robert is a bad commander (which is false) but that Ned's caution made of them an incredible duo.

- Tyrion himself says that Renly's strategy is a good one,  but then again...

 

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The situation itself has changed. And Tywin still thinks he needs to address Stannis' "disgusting slander", because perceived legitimacy actually does matter.

Well ofc has changed, now he knows that whatever Stannis is up to, he can't beat him. Perceived legitimacy does matter, it simply does no matter just as much in  Stannis's case. Since Stannis doesn't have the tools for it, perceived legitimacy will be whatever those with the tools decide it is.

 

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The length of the regency matters: "an infant king would have meant a long, contentious regency". That's listed before the defects of Maegor's father. Aegon VI was an infant, while Viserys was not.

It certainly does not as you're conflating situations that have really nothing to do with one another-

16 years of regency are indeed longer than 9 years of regency but that doesn't mean that 9 years of regency is short by any stretch of imagination. 9 years means a long, contentious regency. 

The reason why Aerys named Viserys his heir is simply because he liked his son more and liked his dornish smelling grandchildren less. Which is also the reason he decided to use them as hostages and killing them by burning the entire city down. 

 

 

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I didn't say the law was false, I said a child ruler really was set aside, which is precisely the thing you denied. Stannis & Renly are both adults, so there would be no regency for either. That makes them rather different from Tommen, who would require nearly a decade of regency.

No, you said that child rulers are simply set aside for adult ones, which is indeed false. Your two examples were a child with a name everyone detested with a father everyone was terrified to occupy the throne added to the fact that people disliked the idea of another unstable period and a mad man  naming a child his heir isntead of yet another.

Acting as if those weird and very specifical exceptions make a law, or even a precedent, for Stannis or Renly superseding Tommen is indeed absurd. It doesn't.

 

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Stannis' advantage is in ships, so it makes sense for him to go to coastal areas. He doesn't have as many horses, so travel over land would be much slower.

Bur he stands to gain all of Renly's army instead of whatever accompanies him to Storm's End. It's not like Stannis's army is huge or Renly was going anywhere.

And Stannis goes to coastal areas because he's told his brother would die there.

 

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The place Davos goes to treat with lords is the Stormlands.

And the swords Stannis is promised are the swords of Storm's End and Highgarden, in fact when talking to Cat he states that he needs to swords of Renly's "southron" lords, not only the Stormlords. That and the fact that Stannis does in fact send mn to take command over the troops left at Bitterbridge, he's simply beat to it.

 

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Robb destroyed the army the Lannisters were raising in the Westerlands, as well as Jaime's earlier. These are not indecisive victories like Randyll Tarly at Ashford or Tywin at the Green Fork. A victory decisive enough to actually end the war would be a very big ask within that timeframe of a few months. Robert Baratheon wasn't so fast, despite the odd temporal compression of Robert's Rebellion.

A great victory isn't in or by itself a decisive one. The decisive war victory of the war happens soon after Renly's own death. Months after the war starts.

 

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Catelyn notes that Renly has rushed his cavalry ahead of his host, thus putting him at risk of running low on supplies, whereas he should have waited for his entire host to arrive to surround & besiege Stannis' own army. Mathis argues that Renly's entire host (he would logically need more than just cavalry for a siege) should go to King's Landing because Storm's End can withstand Stannis' siege. Thus there was no need for Renly to rush there in the first place.

So, they actually do not make the same point at all.

 

 

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Because he'd already decided to do that and persisted in disagreeing with Rowan BEFORE Tarly spoke up. When Tarly objects to attacking at dawn specifically, Renly dismisses that on basically the same grounds on which he'd dismissed Rowan.

He'd laid his plans but he was ready to listen, it's because of Tarly that he actually has the motivation to beat Stannis.

He didn't dismiss Tarly on the same grounds he did Rowan.

 

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Renly didn't bend the knee and he didn't accomplish any of those things, so no it wasn't sufficient.

Neither did Stannis.

Renly however could not know about how his brother was planning to kill him with magic, had he known about that, he would have either bent the knee or he would ordered an inmediate attack to end Stannis and Mel. That also applies to any other contender for the throne.

Are you suggesting that magic should have been a factor in anyone's plan??

 

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He offered swords to seize Cersei's children after Ned had alredy been named regent, he did not "give the Kingdom to Ned". He left when Ned turned down that strategy, without the kingdom ever passing hands between them.

As Ned wouls soon understand and Renly predicted, Ned being named regent and Ned actually being regent are two very different different things, Renly offered his help to help achieve the latter. So he would indeed be giving Ned the kingdom. 

 

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Selyse didn't convince him it was a bad idea. It was hearing of Melisandre's vision that convinced him he could get an army without having to send away Shireen or depending on fearful Lysa's response. And the army consisted of the same Stormlords he'd earlier sent Davos to treat with.

Selyse convinces him that it was a bad idea, Selyse says Stannis is begging and Stannis inmediately balks.

That army consists on most stormlords and some reach lords and Stannis simply fails to get the rest. The Stormlords are not the best part of Renly's army. They were simply the ones who had the most reason to stick with Stannis after the latter assainated his brother.

 

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Defenders in a siege would more typically use boiling water, as it's much cheaper. Stannis could definitely make that, but having it at a height to drop it from would be another story.

So, the answer is not.

 

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That Stannis was again counting on other's stupidity in the Battle of Ice.

Ie that he was counting on Renly's at some point of the time. I don't remember Renly ever being angry.

 

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Robert wasn't attacking an army already in place, which is why most of Mace's forces hadn't even arrived before Tarly won the battle. Of course, we don't actually know many of the details about Ashford such as why Robert went there in the first place.

Even Mace's van is likely to be superior to whatever the Stormlords could muster after Summerhall...

 

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Tyrion reads up on military history, which is how he knows Randyll Tarly rather than Mace Tyrell actually won Ashford. Per Loras, Renly didn't care for reading. Tyrion was also defending a fortified position rather than having to do the war of manuever that Robert was known for.

I don't remember those two facts being linked, the battle was not even 20 years ago, most of the protagonistsare still alive and Tyrion knows most of them, he is likelier to have heard the truth from his siblings, the Baratheons or his father and uncle than he is to have read it on a book. Per Stannis himself, Robert didn't care for reading either, so inmaterial.

An incompetent man would have botched it regardless the advantages... That's your whole argument. 

 

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During a war? His first command was at Storm's End, where we don't hear of him sending out daring sorties to rout the Tyrells, but instead just maintaining discipline while the castle slowly starved.

Yes, during a war. He's left as castellan to the house and he can't send daring sorties to rout the Tyrells even if he wants to. He doesn't have the men to do so, neither do the rest of the Stormlands.

 

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It looks like you forgot the last clause of that sentence. What I'd say it implies is a rude awakening as winter/reality inevitably hits them in the face.

Sure, it certainly doesn't mean defeat. But that the reality of war would soon hit them. 

 

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Because they're afraid of Tywin? LF wasn't once he got to the Vale.

I didn't know that LF was ever a northern lord. Yet Jon talks about the latter.

 

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We know he couldn't be awakened when Devan attempted to, we don't know that was Stannis' actual plan. And if we look at Melisandre's subsequent actions, she's hardly straightforward & honest in her prophecies. We hear early on that she sees Renly's death (though she also saw "Renly's" victory at KL). Later she claims she needs king's blood to kill the other three kings, but all of them were killed by their existing enemies (outside of Stannis' camp) rather than any shadows. Furthermore, Daenerys had already seen a vision of Robb Stark dead well before any of those leeches and Cersei had already heard a prophecy of all her children dying before her. And of course Edric Storm was sent away before he could actually be sacrificed. Those three kings died without any actual help from Melisandre, but she wanted Stannis to think Edric Storm's blood was necessary. This is because Melisandre is openly uninterested in mundane Westerosi politics (unlike Stannis) and focused on a larger Manichean story about Light against Dark in which she believes Stannis has a central role. She's entirely willing to say misleading things to people about her prophecies because she wants them to believe and thinks such deceptions are permitted for her larger cause. Once her prophecies are vindicated then people become more convinced and willing to do the things she wants.

 

1. Yes we do know that was Stannis actual plan, we get to see Stannis actually discussing how to kill Renly and profit from it, we get to see Stannis talking to Davos about accepting Melisandre, we nevr get to see him discussing any battle plan whatsoever.
2. Melisandre is both straight forward and honest, she can indeed manipulate, but she hardly does so, When she tells Stannis kill Edric and you get to have dragons, there is no lie there. Is a big risk big reward scheme.
3. When Selyse says that "Melisandre has seen him dead", he is able to understand right away they were talking about murdering Renly and given they are trying to implicate Stannis compels him to say Fratricide, when Stannis says that Melisandre has seen Penrose death, Davos is able to understand right away that they are talking about  murdering him. Either Stannis is stupid or the conclussions those two come up with can only be achieved with a third eye or Stannis very much knows what is going and he's simply not saying it openly. 
4. We know Davos does not buy Stannis's words and believes there was foul play going on.

 

So we have these things.

• We have Stannis openly discussing killing his brother and getting his army.
• We have Cressen hearing about Meli's vision and calling it fratricide.
• We have Stannis going to the same spot Mel told him Renly would die.
• We have absolutely zero battle plans whatsoever, before or after. Zero traps, nothing.
• We have Stannis actually killing his brother in his sleep.
• We have Stannis not being able to cope with it.
• We have Davos not believing Stannis's excuses.
• We have Stannis giving vague instructions to Davos that in reality are clearly assistance for murder
• We have Stannis stating that Penrose was as healthy as his was brother was before dying.
• We have the same shadowbaby with his face.

Yet we don't know his plans.

 

 

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The reader had already seen Melisandre had performed a ritual on the sword, and we see that it is indeed magicked. We see here that Stannis has it ready to draw for the battle, and the effect it has on horses (which Jon also notices at the Wall).

Well but ofc Stannis has it ready to draw for the battle, it's his sword. Stannis doesn't think nothing unusual of it. In fact this is what he says about it.

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Lightbringer!" Stannis gave a derisive snort. "It glimmers prettily, I'll grant you, but on the Blackwater this magic sword served me no better than any common steel. A dragon would have turned that battle. Aegon once stood here as I do, looking down on this table. Do you think we would name him Aegon the Conqueror today if he had not had dragons?"

Derisive.

 

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Ned Stark distinguished between vengeance & justice for Gregor Clegane, and you must as well: "I have no doubt that Cersei had a hand in Robert's death. I will have justice for him. Aye, and for Ned Stark and Jon Arryn as well." Ned didn't permit Loras to hunt down Gregor precisely because Gregor had wronged him by trying to kill him, and Stannis isn't going to permit Robb Stark to satisfy any of own personal desires. In some ways Stannis' politics are innapropriately modern & impersonal for what Max Weber would call a "charismatic" system of government, but part of the point of this story is about dealing with impersonal abstractions like "justice" weighed against your personal interests & desires.

Ah, knew that was going to be the excuse, i was simply waiting how long would it take for you to get there.

Stannis himself says that he doesn't want to avenge Ned, not because vengeance is wrong and justice is good, but because he does not like the man and he resents the man's bond with his brother. The idea that Stannis distinguish between them or is making a distinction between then, is entirely made up.

 

 

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"I smashed Mance Rayder at the Wall, though he had twenty times my numbers"

Sure, he smashed a huge camp of refugees poorly organized.

It was sheer numbers for why he was winning at the Blackwater, Stannis doesn't do anything especial, the royal faction was simply too outnumbered and the quality of their troops was too dissimilar for any tactic they had could actually matter, it was sheer numbers why he lost at the end as he could never withstand an Lannister- Tyrell attack.

 

 

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Loras could do a good job leading the van, or a bad one. However, Renly has someone that he already knows led a vanguard to the only victory against Robert Baratheon: Randyll Tarly. A priori, he's probably the best person to lead it. But the main issue is that Renly is entirely reliant on the first charge from this. He assumes that will break Stannis' forces so that the sun blinding his own troops won't be a problem. He doesn't have his infantry in case his cavalry fall short. And if Loras gets captured, that's way more leverage than if it were Randyll.

- Yes and Loras is a better knight, he leads the van at the blackwater.

- He assumes correctly that sun will only blind them for the first charge.

- He has his infantry with him, he doesn't have most of it.

- Sure, if Renly is worried about Loras being captured, he should have him in the rear. It would be a bad decision

[Minsc]

23 hours ago, FictionIsntReal said:

She thought he should have been moving his entire host more quickly, not rushing to attack the Lannisters with just his cavalry far from his supply lines.

A plan that would require him to stretch his supplies lines for an entire 80,000 man army into enemy territory.  That would be a much worse situation than the one he was in against Stannis.

23 hours ago, FictionIsntReal said:

This is true enough that there's an important point you didn't note: Stannis is not fortified behind stone walls.

Meaning there isn't any reason for there to be any delay in attacking him that Renly will need some large supply of supplies.

 

23 hours ago, FictionIsntReal said:

Renly could go further away to another castle in the Stormlands, but that just goes back to the point about how he didn't need to force a battle right now.

When your opponent has made a mistake it is wise to utilize it.  Stannis has made the mistake of allowing his entire army be entrapped between Renly's cavalry and Storm's End.  Renly is wise to make battle and defeat him then and there.

23 hours ago, FictionIsntReal said:

Stannis is a lot less reliant on cavalry than his opponents. And he can better prepare for the reveal of Lightbringer since he's the one doing it

Blinding your defending forces is probably even dumber than potentially blinding your charging enemy.  The Night Lamp theory is utterly silly theory that doesn't make a lick of sense.  Like I said above D&D's twenty good men is Shakespeare compared to that theory.

23 hours ago, FictionIsntReal said:

Yes she was. She thought Lysa might have heard something from Jon Arryn and will be willing to talk up now that Sweetrobin won't be in Tywin's hands.

Not in the quote where she talks about Robert putting her aside.  Aka why she describes it as putting her aside not executing her.

23 hours ago, FictionIsntReal said:

Robert had been controlled by his id for a long time but never had so much as a long-term mistress.

That doesn't mean they couldn't attempt to set him up with one, especially if they believed her to look like Lyanna.

[FictionIsntReal]

On 4/1/2021 at 5:27 AM, frenin said:

Stannis does act as if Robert was his neglecting father

Robert does have the role of patriarch once Steffon dies. Cressen actually raised the kids, but he's not regarded like a father.

Just as the Handship?

Jon Arryn wasn't made Hand out of generosity, but because Robert had long relied on him. Robert doesn't make Ned Hand because he thinks Ned wants to be Hand either, instead it's what Robert wants and thinks he needs.

I don't think that the Baratheons follow that precedent

There is actually a good reason to think they don't (or at least the strict version of it): the Precedent is said to deny inheritance flows through the female line, but Robert's claim comes through his grandmother. And while Renly said that was a hundred* years ago and nobody remembers, Ned & Jon Arryn didn't see it that way when they insisted Robert must be king instead of them.
*Actually closer to half that.

else why would Stannis attempt to make Renly his heir if he already was

Stannis not actually giving anything up would be a reason for him to do it!

he was his heir by default because Shireen

Stannis does insist (after Renly's death) that if he dies his men should carry on Shireen's claim, so he evidence doesn't believe in strict male-preference a la the Iron Precedent. However, he also regards Rhaenyra as having rightly "died a traitor's death for trying to usurp her brother's crown". So I guess he believes in Andal succession laws... which I think would normally place a daughter ahead of an uncle.

Since they are separated by House, it seems that all the members of the House need to die out.

Recall back to Emmon Frey at his grant of Riverrun. You could call that "House Frey of Riverrun", but even he regards himself as owing fealty to his own father at the Twins. His familial tie is not severed merely because he was granted Riverrun.

Edric is still a far better option than Stannis.

How so?

Had Stannis been afraid, someone would have pointed out

Like who, for example? Ned has trouble finding anyone in KL that Stannis & Jon Arryn were confiding in there.

A made up target on his back

His belief that it was the Lannisters who poisoned Jon Arryn does turn out to be false, but it's the same conclusion Ned comes to when he re-discovers the incest (and Ned was also killed as a result).

he actually stood around until he knew he was not going to be Hand

As Hand he would have more power to act against Cersei, and naming Stannis as Hand would mean that Robert was placing his trust in him. Telling Robert about their shared investigation as Jon was dying would have probably been the best way to maximize his odds of becoming Hand, and I suppose there isn't a good Watsonian reason for not doing so.

Yet let's take your word for it?

I'm using Ned Stark's logic, which was correct (in an unexpected way) for Lysa.

You're still not telling me why wouldn't he mention it.

Why WOULD he?

Stannis goes on and on about a lot of things he felt before appearing on the page

He goes on about some things he felt years prior to the beginning of the series. But if he did that often enough to let us know what he was feeling at every point from then up until now, there wouldn't be enough space for everything in the present. Logically, the majority of what he's felt is going to be left out.

or simply arrange his murder and take a new one

Why would King Stannis resort to that?

That can mean that Pycelle is trying to protect a woman, that doesn't mean he's trying to protect Cersei

It turned out he was actually shifting blame away from the true culprit: Lysa. But he thought it was Cersei.

Yes, he can. If there was someone ready to think the worst about the Lannisters was Ned

He thinks ill of Jaime & Tywin (not that Stannis was in KL to witness his initial reaction, though they both agreed Jaime shouldn't remain a KG), but it's a big leap from regarding those two as backstabbing opportunists without honor to believing in royal twincest (on the part of Cersei, who wasn't involved in the sack) depriving Robert of actual heirs.

so even if Ned didn't believe him, the very fact of his surrogate dying because of that affair would spur Ned to take the matter seriously enough

Ned took the matter seriously and died, just as Jon Arryn took it seriously enough to investigate and died. I find that popular "definition of insanity" quote a bit tiresome since randomness does indeed mean the same thing might work a second time, but it does at least show a strategy not to be that reliable and most are shy once bitten.

Stannis would get to Winterfell weeks before Robert, he would have had enough time getting Ned's attention just by that

Do we know how long Stannis worked with Jon Arryn? And will Stannis have the same resources as in KL to attest to Robert's bastards vs Cersei's children? It seems like a longer shot version of an attempt that already failed.

Stannis wanted Robert to die without legit heirs so he could get the throne

Stannis bringing his evidence to Jon Arryn hardly seems calculated to do that. If Jon Arryn isn't killed, he convinces Robert, who crushes the Lannisters and thus presumably has time to remarry and father more heirs even if Stannis gets to be heir until then. I suppose if he wanted Robert to die he could try to make it look like Robert had heard the accusation and wanted more evidence gathered, since that's what Stannis believes caused Jon Arryn's death.

Nope, you're using Ned's without all the context thoughts

Which of his thoughts are you referring to? We know the context is that Ned doesn't know who poisoned Jon Arryn, and we later learn that Stannis believes it was Cersei.

Inmaterial because Ned's logic it's not Stannis's.

Ned's logic was actually correct as applied to Lysa fleeing KL.

Lysa is not Stannis

She's one of the people Jaime & Cersei were worried about because of what Jon Arryn knew and (in their minds) could have told her. They were hoping Tywin would have taken in Sweetrobin and thus be able to intimidate her into silence, but Lysa prevented that. The Vale remains insulated under her during the war. Obviously there was never a possibility of her being named Hand and then punishing Cersei for poisoning Jon Arryn.

Stannis didn't flee

Whether you want to call it "fleeing" or "leaving", it can't be motivated by guilt he would only feel as the result of doing so, and it is guilt for Jon Arryn's murder as a motivation that Ned concluded was one of two possibilities. In Eddard's next chapter, Varys tells him that Cersei hoped to have Robert killed during the melee. And in Eddard's chapter after that he feels certain that Stannis knew the secret Jon Arryn died for and considers going to Dragonstone to find it out. It should also be noted that Cersei feared Lysa passing on info about her late husband via her sister Cat... which is in fact what Lysa does, although it turns out to be misinformation.

Stannis is abandoning his brother (s) to die and there is some guilt there.

By your own standards you can't make that claim, because Stannis never says anything about feeling guilty for Robert's death even though does talk about his bad dreams & feelings after Renly's death. It is of course more logical for us to hear about the latter rather than the former because Stannis appears in POV chapters around Renly's death, but not Robert's.

No, you simply need to keep reading until where it comes to Tyrion.

You don't "keep going" in a list to get to the beginning! Cersei begins by thinking of her father, then thinks about how he's dead along with a number of other people including Renly. Stannis obviously can't be included there because he's not dead. Tyrion appears in the sentence after the list, because he's alive, and Cersei believes he's hiding in the Red Keep after escaping execution & killing Tywin. Stannis is up at the Wall, far away from her.

Knew that was coming

That's part of the fun with Cersei. Set the Falys Stokeworth & her husband against Bronn, and it just turns Bronn into "Lord" Stokeworth. Empower the High Sparrow and send him a Kettleblack to make a false confession, and it results in Cersei being locked up. Buy dromonds and give them to Aurane Waters to command, and he'll steal them. Stiff the Iron Bank, and they lend to Stannis. Antagonize the Tyrellls, and she not only makes herself an antagonist for them but everyone else invested in the stability of the regime via the marriage alliance.

Neither Tywin nor Stannis feared Robb

Stannis wouldn't have had any reason to, he was entirely separated from Robb's forces by enemy territory & armies.

It seems that the world is divided by Tywin  & Tyrion and the fools

You've got two different "ands" there so it's unclear what's the numerator & denominator in that division, but I'll say this for Tywin & Tyrion: they were absolutely correct about the incompetence of Cersei & Joffrey. Tyrion's take on Stannis ("hard, cold, inexorable") is also fairly accurate.

He had to fear her influence on Robert

What did he have to fear via that? Was Cersei going to convince Robert to kill Renly?

His claim rests upon the Baratheon regime illegitimacy.  Irrelevant right?? Since hammers and all that.

No, Robert is still concerned that two Targaryens are out there and could claim support due to their perceived legitimacy. And indeed there were forces working for a Targaryen restoration beyond even the marriage alliance with Khal Drogo.

Yet she still doesn't suggest bending the knee to him

She said it wasn't up to her, and Robb's forces were never even close enough to Stannis to coordinate. She really has no reason to at all, especially since Robb has declared himself independent of the kingdom Stannis is claiming.

Saying that that is the initial outbreak of military conflict in the war is as true as saying that the kingswoord brotherhood is just a prelude of the Robellion.

The Kingswood Brotherhood was put down the year before Robert's rebellion. That Brotherhood themselves didn't participate in the rebellion because they'd been put down and were dead or at the Wall. In contrast, the proto-version of the Brotherhood Without Banners fought at Mummer's Ford after the Golden Tooth, and then continued to fight in the Riverlands after Robert's death as the BWB. So that's a theater in the War of the Five Kings where Ned sent a military force that continued to fight on that basis.

He doesn't seem so tho.

"Lord Stannis was about to fall upon King's Landing," Robb said. "He might have rid us of Joffrey, the queen, and the Imp in one red stroke. Then we might have been able to make a peace."

The Lannisters are not nobody

The Martells aren't actually supporting the Lannisters. Oberyn was calling out Tywin and fatally poisoned his henchman in Gregor (though he kept him alive long enough to get a confession of what he did to Elia). Doran's captain of the guards kills the Kingsguard sent to guard Myrcella, and the Martells then convince Myrcella to lie about who actually killed Arys Oakheart. Tyene Sand is being sent disguised as a septa to KL to gain the confidence of the High Sparrow, with Nymeria taking Oberyn's seat on the council, even though Doran knows they were plotting to assassinate Lannisters and/or start a war with them. He's also sent his own children to meet with Targaryen claimants as potential allies against the Lannisters. The Dornish armies never actually fight any of the enemies of the Lannister regime.

And yet, he's badly beaten whenever he doesn't have superior numbers or facing a camp of wildlings

He's only been beaten once, that seems odd to describe as "whenever". He didn't have superior numbers when Mace Tyrell was besieging him at Storm's End, but then I suppose the Reach is entirely populated by wildlings.

he would have attacked either Renly or  King's Landing right away

Stannis is a cautious commander, that doesn't imply attacking either claimed king "right away". Rather, one attacks when it is most opportune.

Stannis is desperate enough to kill his kin, not to "beg"

When Stannis goes to the North he meets with mountain clans to seek their support. I don't know if you'd consider that "begging".

We observe Stannis doing that repeatedly and he is supposed to be "The" Commander

When Jon Snow advised Stannis against leading a wildling host against the Dreadfort... Stannis took the advice and changed his plan. Imry Florent did ignore Davos' advice for the Blackwater though.

Tyrion himself says that Renly's strategy is a good one

The strategy of doing nothing while others fought, not the strategy of rushing his cavalry beyond his supply lines against a siege which couldn't succeed in the near term.

The reason why Aerys named Viserys his heir is simply because he liked his son more and liked his dornish smelling grandchildren less.

Aerys was really paranoid about his son Rhaegar, but Rhaegar was an adult who could lead an army, so the succession remained unchanged until after he died.

16 years of regency are indeed longer than 9 years of regency but that doesn't mean that 9 years of regency is short by any stretch of imagination. 9 years means a long, contentious regency.

It means it's meaningfully shorter. Aerys didn't really have potential heirs older than Viserys, so he opted for the shortest expected regency.

you said that child rulers are simply set aside for adult ones

Aegon V was an adult, but Viserys wasn't. What I was was that the Baratheon brothers were the closest substitutes to each other.

Acting as if those weird and very specifical exceptions

You don't think a civil war makes for exceptional circumstances? It was during one that Viserys was named heir ahead of Aegon VI.

for Stannis or Renly superseding Tommen is indeed absurd

Joffrey was still alive when Renly was, so the choice is really between him and the Baratheon brothers. And those two brothers are indeed the closest substitutes to each other. They're both adults, younger brothers of Robert, lords in their own right, members of the Small Council, from the Stormlands, and neither is at war with the Starks nor currently on the Iron Throne. Also, neither is a sadist. Tyrion quipped that the Baratheon brothers were at odds because they were so alike and yet so different.

in fact when talking to Cat he states that he needs to swords of Renly's "southron" lords

The Stormlands are south of the crownlands & Dragonstone.

A great victory isn't in or by itself a decisive one

A victory which gives the winning army control of the area without hampering its effectiveness and destroys the losing army is normally thought of as decisive.

He didn't dismiss Tarly on the same grounds he did Rowan.

"And have men say I feared to face Stannis?" "And have it said that I won by treachery, with an unchivalrous attack?"

Neither did Stannis.

Did I say anything that canonically happened was sufficient? I instead characterized as sufficient a counterfactual along the lines of what Steven Attewell has discussed in his "What If?" sections for chapters here and here. The delay at Storm's End meant enough time for a relief force to arrive at KL, where Stannis was about to win. Shorten that, and he takes the city. Stannis also thinks to himself that he would have smashed Tywin if Renly had bent the knee, and Tyrion similarly feared (in the same bit about how he feared one more than the other) what would happen if Stannis' navy attacked by sea while Renly's army attacked by land.

Are you suggesting that magic should have been a factor in anyone's plan?

I'm suggesting that Renly can accomplish the goal you ascribe to him (getting rid of Cersei) at a lower cost if he follows rather than fights his older brother. He doesn't because he wants power for himself & the Tyrells but not Stannis. You can't understand his actions without that, and so I interpret his actions from the beginning through that lens.

So he would indeed be giving Ned the kingdom

By Renly's own logic, it is control over Joffrey that means control over the kingdom. And it will be his own swords doing that. Focusing on Ned being named regent rather than Renly is to neglect the very thing you just emphasized.

Stannis inmediately balks

Stannis immediately rebukes her and dismisses her advice as long as she doesn't have an army for him. It's Melisandre who sees Stannis fated to acquire one (without giving up either his daughter or half the kingdom), and that's what decides his course of action.

Ie that he was counting on Renly's at some point of the time

Storm's End could easily survive Stannis besieging it, as it had survived Mace Tyrell's long siege with a much larger force. Stannis had to depend on Renly bringing his forces there rather than capturing KL. Of course, he does have Melisandre able to see glimpses of the future.

I don't remember Renly ever being angry.

Hosteen didn't require anger to be stupid: he was already stupid.

An incompetent man would have botched it regardless the advantages... That's your whole argument.

Not merely my argument, this reflects what the characters think though you dismiss it as "hype".

Yes, during a war.

We don't hear of him optimistically looking forward to glory in said war, which by your logic means it can't have happened. I wouldn't rely on that absence of evidence, but we can look at Stannis' note about how he had to choose between his king and his brother, which is not something Renly's Knights of Summer discuss (of course, they've already made their choice by the time Catelyn arrives so we shouldn't necessarily expect to hear about that decision either). We hear Ramsay say that Stannis is too cautious to attack the Dreadfort, but we don't hear if he would have been reckless enough to do so when he was a young Knight of Summer. We never even hear of Stannis participating in tourneys with knights, although Renly does. Could he have been a Knight of Summer despite proclaiming a hostile or indifferent cosmos after the Windproud sank? Many things are possible, but I don't see evidence for it. Perhaps you could provide some.

I didn't know that LF was ever a northern lord. Yet Jon talks about the latter.

The Neck protects against armies coming from the south. Stannis recruits northmen, but not the Riverlands.

we get to see Stannis actually discussing how to kill Renly

How SPECIFICALLY did Stannis plan on killing Renly? Beheading him with Lightbringer?

Melisandre is both straight forward and honest

No, we know from her POV that she says what she thinks she needs to in order to convince her audience. She tells Jon quite confidently that Arya will flee to the Wall, dressed in grey on a dying horse. It turns out to be Alys Karstark. She acts certain that there will be an attack on Eastwatch-by-the-Sea even though the towers actually looked different in her vision because "the trappings of power" (aided by powders to create illusions out of "shadow and suggestion") help her get actual power. She uses a glamour to make Rattleshirt & Mance switch places so that she can grant a boon to Jon Snow, who didn't yet have faith in her... even though this obstructs Stannis' order that Mance be executed for desertion! Her ultimate loyalty is to R'hllor in that god's war with the Great Other, not to King Stannis in his petty war for the Iron Throne. She first converted Selyse, who seems to think that sacrificing Edric Storm will "lift his shadow" from her womb so she can have more children. Melisandre doesn't care about Stannis' dynasty (we can figure she's ultimately going to sacrifice Shireen), but it would be helpful for her if Selyse believed just that. It's also not like she told Stannis that the three kings were going to die with or without Edric's blood so he could just skip the leeches either. The whole point of that was to convince Stannis enough to go further and sacrifice Edric.

When Selyse says that "Melisandre has seen him dead", he is able to understand right away they were talking about murdering Renly

Melisandre does actually see the deaths of Robb, Balon & Joffrey (not caused by her), which is how she knew to have Stannis speak their names for that phony ritual. I don't think Melisandre told Selyse "I'm going to have sex with Stannis, then give birth to a shadow shaped like him, who will then stab Renly". Looking into the flames to see the future is something that Malisandre has done for a very long time and continues to do throughout the series. Draining someone's life-force to create a shadow is done much less often, and there's no reason to think she had done that before with Stannis. Stannis speaks of Melisandre seeing "another day in her flames as well" where Renly smashed him at KL, with Stannis concluding that by changing the meeting place from KL to Storm's End he changed which brother was fated to die.

We have absolutely zero battle plans whatsoever, before or after

We get Cat's POV in the immediate runup rather than someone close to Stannis. And what would be the point of plans for a battle that didn't happen after? We just know that Stannis was supposed to be awake for it but that Devan failed to wake him. Devan certainly hadn't been told not to bother to wake Stannis, nor was it thought Stannis didn't need to be ahorse by that time (hence his lords "fretting").

We have Stannis actually killing his brother in his sleep

It's a shadow that looks like Stannis. The actual Stannis is in his tent.

We have Stannis not being able to cope with it

We don't get Stannis saying anything about killing Renly himself. Instead we get him realizing he actually did love Renly despite being vexed by him, while also saying Renly doomed himself by bringing his banners to Storm's End.

We have Stannis giving vague instructions to Davos that in reality are clearly assistance for murder

Melisandre notes that there was no need against Renly because there weren't any magical protections a la Storm's End. With Renly mysteriously dead, Melisandre not only has her prophecy of him dying vindicated, there is now proof of concept for death by magic itself without even a battle. Stannis later attempts this with the leeches, though we know those deaths weren't actually caused by said leeches. If Stannis had known from the beginning that he was allotted two magical assassins who could remove the need for a battle, he probably wouldn't have allocated them both outside Storm's End. The logical person to use one on would have been Tywin, which Arya figures out too late. But Melisandre doesn't care about Tywin; she does care about Edric Storm's blood.

Derisive.

Yes, when he assaulted a walled city and was not prepared for a cavalry charge, it didn't do much for him.

Stannis himself says that he doesn't want to avenge Ned, not because vengeance is wrong and justice is good, but because he does not like the man and he resents the man's bond with his brother

The nature of vengeance is personal. When Ned picked Beric rather than Loras, it was someone who had no connection to Gregor or anyone Gregor had wronged. If he had picked someone who loved one of Gregor's victims, it would be an entirely different story. Cressen is suggesting joining with Robb Stark (whom Stannis believes to be commiting treason by declaring himself king) and giving him vengeance. But Stannis doesn't believe in that. He believes in punishing Cersei for her crimes, just as he punished Davos for his rather than simply treating Davos as an ally or an enemy. Varys says of Stannis "There is no creature on earth half so terrifying as a truly just man", and we're supposed to believe him.

it was sheer numbers why he lost at the end as he could never withstand an Lannister- Tyrell attack

Some essential concepts in military strategy are "concentration in space" and "concentation in time". The former is what Robert Baratheon did when he pulled off three victories in a day against armies that would have been too large if all three were combined. The latter is harder to pull off, but it winds up happening at Blackwater, and it permitted Stannis to get hit in the flank, which is much more important than sheer numbers would indicate. It is hitting the wildlings in their flank, unexpectedly, that permits Stannis to win against them (they weren't already engaged with another force right then, so it's not quite concentation in time).

He assumes correctly that sun will only blind them for the first charge

Correctly? Did you come across an alternate chapter I wasn't aware of? He assumes that Stannis' forces will be completely disordered after that charge, so it won't matter if Renly's own forces can't see well. Another reminder: keeping an infantry line orderly is of vital importance against cavalry. Large numbers of infantry will still fail against them if they lose their ordering. Which is how Stannis beat Mance (not that Mance's host was really the type to form a shield wall).

21 hours ago, Minsc said:

A plan that would require him to stretch his supplies lines for an entire 80,000 man army into enemy territory.  That would be a much worse situation than the one he was in against Stannis.

If he plans on taking the capital, wouldn't he have to eventually do that? Without the need to rush his cavalry ahead of his main host?

Stannis has made the mistake of allowing his entire army be entrapped between Renly's cavalry and Storm's End

Who refers to Stannis as entrapped? Did Renly cut him off from his ships? Cat thought Renly SHOULD have entrapped Stannis.

Blinding your defending forces is probably even dumber than potentially blinding your charging enemy

Lightbringer alone doesn't make anyone nearby blind. The blind people are the ones CHARGING INTO THE SUN. And we know that Lightbringer has a strong effect on horses, which Stannis is less reliant on.

The Night Lamp theory is utterly silly theory that doesn't make a lick of sense

Would you care to make a bet that Stannis will be defeated in the Battle of Ice like the Pink Letter says? There's no guarantee TWOW will ever be published, but it's something to look forward to.

That doesn't mean they couldn't attempt to set him up with one, especially if they believed her to look like Lyanna.

They have no actual reason to think Margaery looks like Lyanna, because she doesn't, nor was there any attempt to find someone who did.

[Minsc]

12 hours ago, FictionIsntReal said:

If he plans on taking the capital, wouldn't he have to eventually do that? Without the need to rush his cavalry ahead of his main host?

Yes, but it makes more sense to move slowly when do that march rather than move as quickly as he can towards King's Landing.  She was wanting him to stretch his supply line dangerously when it was against the Lannisters.  Yet, she is super conservative when it is foe she doesn't think needs to be fought.  Her criticism doesn't follow with her previous criticism.

12 hours ago, FictionIsntReal said:

Who refers to Stannis as entrapped? Did Renly cut him off from his ships? Cat thought Renly SHOULD have entrapped Stannis.

Stannis wasn't going to be able to load his entire army onto his ships in a single night.  Furthermore, even he attempted most probably would abandon him then and there.

12 hours ago, FictionIsntReal said:

Lightbringer alone doesn't make anyone nearby blind. The blind people are the ones CHARGING INTO THE SUN. And we know that Lightbringer has a strong effect on horses, which Stannis is less reliant on.

We know it makes a single house ridden by a lady shy that isn't a strong effect on horses.  Lightbringer would have zero realistic effect on a cavalry charge.

12 hours ago, FictionIsntReal said:

Would you care to make a bet that Stannis will be defeated in the Battle of Ice like the Pink Letter says? There's no guarantee TWOW will ever be published, but it's something to look forward to.

I doubt if he wins it will because he used Lightbringer to startle the Bolton and Frey cavalry.  

12 hours ago, FictionIsntReal said:

They have no actual reason to think Margaery looks like Lyanna, because she doesn't, nor was there any attempt to find someone who did.

Renly and Loras don't know what Lyanna looks like so they were obviously hoping she would remind Robert of her.

[frenin]

15 hours ago, FictionIsntReal said:

Robert does have the role of patriarch once Steffon dies. Cressen actually raised the kids, but he's not regarded like a father.

Patriarch can mean father, not in this case, Kevan does not consider Tywin his father, he already has one, nor Bran (who is a child and thus would make far more sense if he did) considers Robb a  father figure, nor Brynden consider Hoster his father.

Stannis was 14-15 when his parents died, it makes sense that Renly or Rickon would consider their eldest brothers like their fathers. It make less sense for Stannis to do so.

 

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Jon Arryn wasn't made Hand out of generosity, but because Robert had long relied on him. Robert doesn't make Ned Hand because he thinks Ned wants to be Hand either, instead it's what Robert wants and thinks he needs.

And how that ties to Stannis?? 

 

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Stannis not actually giving anything up would be a reason for him to do it!

So when you were saying that Stannis was negotiating with Renly you mean that Stannis was offering Renly things Renly already had or were in exchange of his massive army.

 

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Recall back to Emmon Frey at his grant of Riverrun. You could call that "House Frey of Riverrun", but even he regards himself as owing fealty to his own father at the Twins. His familial tie is not severed merely because he was granted Riverrun.

Familial tie is not the same of inheritance. Emmon's brothers could not get Riverrun instead of Emmon's own heirs.

 

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How so?

He's young, he's a bachelor and he's charismatic enough. People do not dislike him in mass and he wins people easily, he's also in need of a regent but only for four years.

 

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Like who, for example? Ned has trouble finding anyone in KL that Stannis & Jon Arryn were confiding in there.

Cressen, Selyse, Melisandre, Davos...

 

 

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His belief that it was the Lannisters who poisoned Jon Arryn does turn out to be false, but it's the same conclusion Ned comes to when he re-discovers the incest (and Ned was also killed as a result).

While Robert lived and actually even after, Ned did not believe that the Lannisters were going to kill him,  that confidence is the very reason he actually warns Cersei.

That both Stannis and Ned believed Arryn was killed by her doesn't mean that they believed Cersei was after them, that reason is entire one you make up.

 

 

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As Hand he would have more power to act against Cersei, and naming Stannis as Hand would mean that Robert was placing his trust in him. Telling Robert about their shared investigation as Jon was dying would have probably been the best way to maximize his odds of becoming Hand, and I suppose there isn't a good Watsonian reason for not doing so.

And honestly, how that means there was not a target against him again?? In the days between Arryn's death and Robert's decision to travel north. Stannis would still believe that there is a target on his back, yet he stays, even when Cersei and Jaime are also there.

He only leaves, curiously enough once the Lannisters and their entourage is not on King's Landing, once the ones putting the target aren't there.

As Hand he has the same power to act against Cersei really, the ones the king offers him.

 

 

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I'm using Ned Stark's logic, which was correct (in an unexpected way) for Lysa.

You were already saying that way before coming up with that Ned quote, that as said you have turned into your bible.

A broken clock will tell the hour correctly twice a day, that Ned was right with Lysa does not mean that he is with Stannis, especially because we know Stannis was doing and saying very curious things for an afraid man.

 

 

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Why WOULD he?

Why wouldn't he?? Why wouldn't he or his circle say something as simple as "Stannis feared for his life"??

They do say a lot of things but they are omitting why Stannis was hiding in Dragonstone for an entire year?

Not buying that.

 

 

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He goes on about some things he felt years prior to the beginning of the series. But if he did that often enough to let us know what he was feeling at every point from then up until now, there wouldn't be enough space for everything in the present. Logically, the majority of what he's felt is going to be left out.

Logically we cannot tell the majority of what's going on for him. We can only work with what we're given. He goes on about things he's feeling and about things he felt, there is no distinction there and Stannis does that often enough.  Almost at every chapter he is alone with Davos or Cressen he does so.

 

 

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Why would King Stannis resort to that?

He wouldn't.  

Now, where's your proof that Stannis distrusted Pycelle again?

 

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It turned out he was actually shifting blame away from the true culprit: Lysa. But he thought it was Cersei.

Yes, i did read the books. 

Again, from Pycelle's words you can't tell he's a blatant partisan, the only time he shows his true face in  AGOT is during Gregor's trial. And even that could have been thought of him being ovrely cautious instead of a Lannister man.

 

 

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He thinks ill of Jaime & Tywin (not that Stannis was in KL to witness his initial reaction, though they both agreed Jaime shouldn't remain a KG), but it's a big leap from regarding those two as backstabbing opportunists without honor to believing in royal twincest (on the part of Cersei, who wasn't involved in the sack) depriving Robert of actual heirs.

He thinks ill of the entire family, Cat says that there is little love between him and the Lannisters.

Ned thinks the worst of the Lannisters and Stannis (even without the bastards) have enough evidence to mount a solid theory. At least he knows that Ned would investigate it, especially if he's told that the alledged twincest is the reason his surrogate father is dead. 

He lost absolutely nothing by trying and at least he warned the future Hand of the King o the danger.

But Stannis didn't want Ned to find out.

 

 

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Ned took the matter seriously and died, just as Jon Arryn took it seriously enough to investigate and died. I find that popular "definition of insanity" quote a bit tiresome since randomness does indeed mean the same thing might work a second time, but it does at least show a strategy not to be that reliable and most are shy once bitten.

Ned wouldn't have died had he been informed from the get go, nor would Robert btw. He would have found the truth right away, he would have his household intact and he would have told Robert even after warning Cersei. That's ofc believing that Ned goes to King's Landing and not, you knowm arrest the twins the minute they set a foot on Winterfell.

Ned dies because he finds the truth too little to late and Robert dies hunting. All of that could have been avoided had Stannis opened his mouth, he wanted Robert to die instead.

 

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Do we know how long Stannis worked with Jon Arryn? And will Stannis have the same resources as in KL to attest to Robert's bastards vs Cersei's children? It seems like a longer shot version of an attempt that already failed.

1. What has that to do with anything?
2. Well yes, he actually has.  He has the book and the lineage.  It wasn't the bastards what made Ned discover the truth but the sudden revelation of the impossibility of a three Lannister looking children between Cersei and Robert.
3. Except it isn't. It only needs goodwill, which...

 

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Stannis bringing his evidence to Jon Arryn hardly seems calculated to do that. If Jon Arryn isn't killed, he convinces Robert, who crushes the Lannisters and thus presumably has time to remarry and father more heirs even if Stannis gets to be heir until then. I suppose if he wanted Robert to die he could try to make it look like Robert had heard the accusation and wanted more evidence gathered, since that's what Stannis believes caused Jon Arryn's death.

No, him wanting Robert to die starts the moment he abandons him. After Arryn's death.

Robert goes to Winterfell to get Ned and Stannis is fed up, he abandons his brothers to a sure danger waiting for them to die without fixing their own succession, so their titles and claims pass to him.

He leaves King's Landing, he steals the Royal Fleet and he starts hiring sellswords and calling the banners, waiting for the moment the good news came.

 

 

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Which of his thoughts are you referring to? We know the context is that Ned doesn't know who poisoned Jon Arryn, and we later learn that Stannis believes it was Cersei.

Guilt of feart thingy.

Stannis does not believe Cersei is after him.

 

 

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Ned's logic was actually correct as applied to Lysa fleeing KL.

Yep so...

 

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She's one of the people Jaime & Cersei were worried about because of what Jon Arryn knew and (in their minds) could have told her. They were hoping Tywin would have taken in Sweetrobin and thus be able to intimidate her into silence, but Lysa prevented that. The Vale remains insulated under her during the war. Obviously there was never a possibility of her being named Hand and then punishing Cersei for poisoning Jon Arryn.

She, not Stannis. There was the possibility of her telling her brother in law the new Hand of the King and then punishing Cersei for poisoning Jon Arryn.

Lysa is not Stannis, again. We can go on and on about this but correlation does not imply causation.

 

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Whether you want to call it "fleeing" or "leaving", it can't be motivated by guilt he would only feel as the result of doing so, and it is guilt for Jon Arryn's murder as a motivation that Ned concluded was one of two possibilities. In Eddard's next chapter, Varys tells him that Cersei hoped to have Robert killed during the melee. And in Eddard's chapter after that he feels certain that Stannis knew the secret Jon Arryn died for and considers going to Dragonstone to find it out. It should also be noted that Cersei feared Lysa passing on info about her late husband via her sister Cat... which is in fact what Lysa does, although it turns out to be misinformation.

 

1. He decides to let his brother die.
2. He feels some guilt.
3. He leaves.

I'm indiferent with this however, i do not indeed believe Stannis felt remorse about abandoning Robert.

 

 

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By your own standards you can't make that claim, because Stannis never says anything about feeling guilty for Robert's death even though does talk about his bad dreams & feelings after Renly's death. It is of course more logical for us to hear about the latter rather than the former because Stannis appears in POV chapters around Renly's death, but not Robert's.

Ah no, you were the one starting this game by asking quotes regarding Renly and Cersei (and dismissing them even i they were given), it's only fair that you do the same.

But as i said, i don't believe that Stannis ever regretted what he did to Robert.

 

 

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You don't "keep going" in a list to get to the beginning! Cersei begins by thinking of her father, then thinks about how he's dead along with a number of other people including Renly. Stannis obviously can't be included there because he's not dead. Tyrion appears in the sentence after the list, because he's alive, and Cersei believes he's hiding in the Red Keep after escaping execution & killing Tywin. Stannis is up at the Wall, far away from her.

Cersei thinks of her fallen enemies and then she thinks about the remaining ones. Stannis is not among them even when he's thinking about sending a spy to kill Jon Snow and Stannis being unable to do much about it.

 

 

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Stannis wouldn't have had any reason to, he was entirely separated from Robb's forces by enemy territory & armies.

Stannis doesn't say that tho. 

He says he's a green boy. Given that he calls him usurper and that he tells Cat his time will come, it means that he's going to see him sooner or later.

 

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What did he have to fear via that? Was Cersei going to convince Robert to kill Renly?

We can't tell, we are not shown that.

We only know Renly feared her and there was enmity between them.

 

 

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No, Robert is still concerned that two Targaryens are out there and could claim support due to their perceived legitimacy. And indeed there were forces working for a Targaryen restoration beyond even the marriage alliance with Khal Drogo.

There were insufficient forces working for it, those forces would need... you guess it, swords. Those forces were not working to return them to power because they believe them rightful but because they were means to destroying Robert's regime.

 

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She said it wasn't up to her, and Robb's forces were never even close enough to Stannis to coordinate. She really has no reason to at all, especially since Robb has declared himself independent of the kingdom Stannis is claiming.

Yet she tells Robb to bend the knee after the Blackwater?? Then it's up to her?

 

 

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The Kingswood Brotherhood was put down the year before Robert's rebellion. That Brotherhood themselves didn't participate in the rebellion because they'd been put down and were dead or at the Wall. In contrast, the proto-version of the Brotherhood Without Banners fought at Mummer's Ford after the Golden Tooth, and then continued to fight in the Riverlands after Robert's death as the BWB. So that's a theater in the War of the Five Kings where Ned sent a military force that continued to fight on that basis.

Except it isn't??

The latter fights in an event unrelated to the war that entangles with the ongoing war, it's not a theater by any stretch of the imagination.

 

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"Lord Stannis was about to fall upon King's Landing," Robb said. "He might have rid us of Joffrey, the queen, and the Imp in one red stroke. Then we might have been able to make a peace."

Robb isn't even calling him king. He was meaning making peace on his terms (might be able) not submitting to Stannis.

 

 

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The Martells aren't actually supporting the Lannisters. Oberyn was calling out Tywin and fatally poisoned his henchman in Gregor (though he kept him alive long enough to get a confession of what he did to Elia). Doran's captain of the guards kills the Kingsguard sent to guard Myrcella, and the Martells then convince Myrcella to lie about who actually killed Arys Oakheart. Tyene Sand is being sent disguised as a septa to KL to gain the confidence of the High Sparrow, with Nymeria taking Oberyn's seat on the council, even though Doran knows they were plotting to assassinate Lannisters and/or start a war with them. He's also sent his own children to meet with Targaryen claimants as potential allies against the Lannisters. The Dornish armies never actually fight any of the enemies of the Lannister regime.

I know, i read the books, It's the same.

 

 

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He's only been beaten once, that seems odd to describe as "whenever". He didn't have superior numbers when Mace Tyrell was besieging him at Storm's End, but then I suppose the Reach is entirely populated by wildlings.

He has only won twice, the latter at the wall, yet no one believes  it odd to call him an experimented commander.

Ned ends the siege,not Stannis.

 

 

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Stannis is a cautious commander, that doesn't imply attacking either claimed king "right away". Rather, one attacks when it is most opportune.

Which was?? A sign from god? The mere fact thathe was indecisive could cost him his troops.

If Stannis could defeat either in battle, it seems odd that he waited until Meli's assasination plan.

 

 

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When Stannis goes to the North he meets with mountain clans to seek their support. I don't know if you'd consider that "begging".

I wouldn't , Stannis in ACOK would.

 

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When Jon Snow advised Stannis against leading a wildling host against the Dreadfort... Stannis took the advice and changed his plan. Imry Florent did ignore Davos' advice for the Blackwater though.

1. Stannis is told to ally with Renly, Stannis refuses and plots to kill him.
2. Stannis is told to ally Robb, Stannis uses the leeches to "kill him" 
3. Stannis is told to ally Lysa, he refuses.
4. Stannis is told not to waste time trying to capture Storm's End right away and he refuses.
5. Stannis is told not to kill Edric, he again refuses.

The only reason Stannis followed Jon's advice was because he was told that he would get men otherwise. "The" battle commander was perfectly fine with walking to the deathtrap the Bolton lands were.

 

 

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The strategy of doing nothing while others fought, not the strategy of rushing his cavalry beyond his supply lines against a siege which couldn't succeed in the near term.

Tyrion doesn't know the latter. Both Stannis and Renly point about the weakness of leaving your lands undefended or enemies on your rear.

 

 

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Aerys was really paranoid about his son Rhaegar, but Rhaegar was an adult who could lead an army, so the succession remained unchanged until after he died.

Rhaegar also had more followers than him by that point and was his house only chance to make it. That wouldn't have changed even if he was 13.

 

 

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It means it's meaningfully shorter. Aerys didn't really have potential heirs older than Viserys, so he opted for the shortest expected regency.

Oh, you talk as if that was the reason behind his decision.

Not as if there were two childs, he disliked one, he adored the other, he moved to save one and he was trying to incinerate the other.

Nope, the reason is that he was trying to prevent a very long regency.

 

 

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Aegon V was an adult, but Viserys wasn't. What I was was that the Baratheon brothers were the closest substitutes to each other.

Egg's only competion was a baby named Maegor whose blood no one wanted on the throne. But the Baratheon brothers were not the closest substitutes for the crown. Joffrey and Tommen were, attacking them is far more useful than attacking a man no one is going to support.

 

 

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You don't think a civil war makes for exceptional circumstances? It was during one that Viserys was named heir ahead of Aegon VI.

No, i think that this civil war does not make for an exceptional circumstance. As it was obvious that the only way Tommen and Joffrey were going to be forced out of the throne, not that there would be a collective decision about them being unable to do so because f their age.

 

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Joffrey was still alive when Renly was, so the choice is really between him and the Baratheon brothers. And those two brothers are indeed the closest substitutes to each other. They're both adults, younger brothers of Robert, lords in their own right, members of the Small Council, from the Stormlands, and neither is at war with the Starks nor currently on the Iron Throne. Also, neither is a sadist. Tyrion quipped that the Baratheon brothers were at odds because they were so alike and yet so different.

No, the choice is really between Joffrey and Renly. Renly had nothing to gain by discrediting Stannis, his support was nonexistent regardless, he had much to gain from discrediting Joffrey, especially before Stannis claimed the throne

 

 

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The Stormlands are south of the crownlands & Dragonstone.

He should have said the Stormlords then, he said southron lords and then he indeed tried to get the resto f the Reach armies. He is also promised both armies.

This is simply silly to argue.

 

 

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A victory which gives the winning army control of the area without hampering its effectiveness and destroys the losing army is normally thought of as decisive.

No, they are not. Decisive victories are those that decide the outcome of a war.

 

 

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"And have men say I feared to face Stannis?" "And have it said that I won by treachery, with an unchivalrous attack?"

Not the same.

 

15 hours ago, FictionIsntReal said:

Did I say anything that canonically happened was sufficient? I instead characterized as sufficient a counterfactual along the lines of what Steven Attewell has discussed in his "What If?" sections for chapters here and here. The delay at Storm's End meant enough time for a relief force to arrive at KL, where Stannis was about to win. Shorten that, and he takes the city. Stannis also thinks to himself that he would have smashed Tywin if Renly had bent the knee, and Tyrion similarly feared (in the same bit about how he feared one more than the other) what would happen if Stannis' navy attacked by sea while Renly's army attacked by land.

 

• Starting with the fact that i disagree with those what if. Why should "magic" factor in Renly's thought process
• The relief force was always going to come to King's Landing, Stannis was doomed from the moment he killed Renly, as the Tyrells were not going to declare for it and they had every reason to declare for Joffrey and then he would lose.
• Well, ofc. With a hundred thousand army is difficult not to smash anyone.

 

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I'm suggesting that Renly can accomplish the goal you ascribe to him (getting rid of Cersei) at a lower cost if he follows rather than fights his older brother. He doesn't because he wants power for himself & the Tyrells but not Stannis. You can't understand his actions without that, and so I interpret his actions from the beginning through that lens.

Except he can't. The marriage with Margaery means the crown, he much like Robb had already crossed the Rubicon and he was set to destroy Stannis. Once taken the decision to get the throne,  Renly had no real reason to back Stannis. Why would he?? He gains little by it and he stands to lose his biggest allies. 

Sure you can understand his actions without that.,  you don't want to because it doesn't fit your bias. He lays out  his reasons quite well.

Renly fears Cersei, he escapes King's Landing, he decides crowning himself is his best option, he raises the largest army ever assembled in Westeros and he is set to achieve his goals.

You understand that as well since rebuttal for that thought of process was that Renly was killed by a shadowbaby so he was wrong. 

 

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By Renly's own logic, it is control over Joffrey that means control over the kingdom. And it will be his own swords doing that. Focusing on Ned being named regent rather than Renly is to neglect the very thing you just emphasized.

It will be his AND  Ned's swords the one controlling Joffrey and given that Renly's intention was that the Council acknowledged Ned as Lord Regent and Lord Protector. He was indeed handing the kingdom over to Ned.

The thing i just emphasized is just fine but you're having a really hard time not reading in a simple text whatever you want.

 

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Stannis immediately rebukes her and dismisses her advice as long as she doesn't have an army for him. It's Melisandre who sees Stannis fated to acquire one (without giving up either his daughter or half the kingdom), and that's what decides his course of action.

Stannis rebukes her advice about taking the Lord of Light or relying on the Florents, he certainly does not rebukes and dismiss her allegations that he would be begging. 

 

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Storm's End could easily survive Stannis besieging it, as it had survived Mace Tyrell's long siege with a much larger force. Stannis had to depend on Renly bringing his forces there rather than capturing KL. Of course, he does have Melisandre able to see glimpses of the future.

He is told that Renly would come to Storm's End and he'd died there, he is not told that Renly would make massive mistakes that would allow him to overcome an army six times his.

 

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Not merely my argument, this reflects what the characters think though you dismiss it as "hype".

But they do not think that tho. I have yet to see anyone calling Renly incompetent.

I do not dismiss it as hype, it is hype. I'm telling you that those thoughts do not change the likely outcome of the battle and that we know far more than those characters.

 

 

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We don't hear of him optimistically looking forward to glory in said war, which by your logic means it can't have happened. I wouldn't rely on that absence of evidence, but we can look at Stannis' note about how he had to choose between his king and his brother, which is not something Renly's Knights of Summer discuss (of course, they've already made their choice by the time Catelyn arrives so we shouldn't necessarily expect to hear about that decision either). We hear Ramsay say that Stannis is too cautious to attack the Dreadfort, but we don't hear if he would have been reckless enough to do so when he was a young Knight of Summer. We never even hear of Stannis participating in tourneys with knights, although Renly does. Could he have been a Knight of Summer despite proclaiming a hostile or indifferent cosmos after the Windproud sank? Many things are possible, but I don't see evidence for it. Perhaps you could provide some.

 

1. I don't even know about who you're talking about. I'm not saying that it could not happen i'm saying that stating something as obvious when we have no proof of it (conclusive or otherwise) and there are other facts ruling against it is pure bias
2. Stannis was about to attack the Dreadfort even when it was a suicide.
3. I don't remember the correlation between participating in tourneys and being a knight of the summer.

 

Knight of the summer is literally being young  untested and unblooded, which is what Cat is talking about and arguing that war will make them grow. Now, Robert was all that and he was far more succesful than Stannis so...

 

 

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The Neck protects against armies coming from the south. Stannis recruits northmen, but not the Riverlands.

It didn't serve him enough while Tywin was alive, it serves him more once he's dead. 

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Even in the north men fear the wroth of Tywin Lannister. Boltons make bad enemies as well. It is not happenstance that put a flayed man on their banners.

What are you even arguing honestly?

 

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How SPECIFICALLY did Stannis plan on killing Renly? Beheading him with Lightbringer?

Nothing like that. We see him arguing how Renly can be killed, since he is being surrounded by a host and his knights.

That's him discussing how to kill Renly.

 

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No, we know from her POV that she says what she thinks she needs to in order to convince her audience. She tells Jon quite confidently that Arya will flee to the Wall, dressed in grey on a dying horse. It turns out to be Alys Karstark. She acts certain that there will be an attack on Eastwatch-by-the-Sea even though the towers actually looked different in her vision because "the trappings of power" (aided by powders to create illusions out of "shadow and suggestion") help her get actual power. She uses a glamour to make Rattleshirt & Mance switch places so that she can grant a boon to Jon Snow, who didn't yet have faith in her... even though this obstructs Stannis' order that Mance be executed for desertion! Her ultimate loyalty is to R'hllor in that god's war with the Great Other, not to King Stannis in his petty war for the Iron Throne. She first converted Selyse, who seems to think that sacrificing Edric Storm will "lift his shadow" from her womb so she can have more children. Melisandre doesn't care about Stannis' dynasty (we can figure she's ultimately going to sacrifice Shireen), but it would be helpful for her if Selyse believed just that. It's also not like she told Stannis that the three kings were going to die with or without Edric's blood so he could just skip the leeches either. The whole point of that was to convince Stannis enough to go further and sacrifice Edric.

She does both actually.

 

• She believed the girl was Arya and she was surprised to find out it wasn't her.
• So again, she's boldly confused?
• Doesn't say that Stannis knows about it or something similar?
• Stannis is the one that will ultimately sacrifice Shireen
• Maybe she thought so?

Meli is manipulative but more oft than not she just says what she believes it's going to happen.

 

 

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Melisandre does actually see the deaths of Robb, Balon & Joffrey (not caused by her), which is how she knew to have Stannis speak their names for that phony ritual. I don't think Melisandre told Selyse "I'm going to have sex with Stannis, then give birth to a shadow shaped like him, who will then stab Renly". Looking into the flames to see the future is something that Malisandre has done for a very long time and continues to do throughout the series. Draining someone's life-force to create a shadow is done much less often, and there's no reason to think she had done that before with Stannis. Stannis speaks of Melisandre seeing "another day in her flames as well" where Renly smashed him at KL, with Stannis concluding that by changing the meeting place from KL to Storm's End he changed which brother was fated to die.

And Melisandre actually kills Penrose and Renly, she needed relative access to them while she didn't for the others. Davos and Cressen right away conclude that there is a muder plot going on. So the idea that Stannis couldn't hinges on him being either imbecile,  simply too zealot to understand the truth behind the words or simply him knowing the truth but refusing to believe it.

Why you don't think that Meli would tell them the how Renly would die?? Why would Selyse care?? Stannis can't possibly balk  either and Stannis do it again, just fine.

There's no reason to think she has done before... because...

 

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We get Cat's POV in the immediate runup rather than someone close to Stannis. And what would be the point of plans for a battle that didn't happen after? We just know that Stannis was supposed to be awake for it but that Devan failed to wake him. Devan certainly hadn't been told not to bother to wake Stannis, nor was it thought Stannis didn't need to be ahorse by that time (hence his lords "fretting").

• We never get the battle plans nor the talks about them.In none of Davos chapters.
• That they existed?? We do get and a lot amount of talk about an assasination that did happen.
• Why would Devan be told not to bother him?? It's not like he's going to  awake anyway and by doing so, Stannis can appear normalcy.
• Idem, Stannis needs to appear normalcy. Why in the world would Stannis openly made known that he's becoming  a kinslayer??

 

 

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It's a shadow that looks like Stannis. The actual Stannis is in his tent.

So if i hire a hitman and the hitman kills his target while I'm asleep... i'm not killing anyone?

It's a shadow conceived by Stannis, guided by Stannis, controlled by Stannis and that Stannis created with the intention of killing his brother.

 

 

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We don't get Stannis saying anything about killing Renly himself. Instead we get him realizing he actually did love Renly despite being vexed by him, while also saying Renly doomed himself by bringing his banners to Storm's End.

• No, we get Stannis being unable to sleep after the fact.
• We get Stannis's making bs excuses that not even Davos buys.
• We get Stannis saying that he loved Renly when he was planning to kill Renly. Stannis saying that he loves Renly has as much credibility as him saying he's not going to try and kill a relative.
• We get him saying that Penrose was healthy like Renly before he died and all that.

 

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Melisandre notes that there was no need against Renly because there weren't any magical protections a la Storm's End. With Renly mysteriously dead, Melisandre not only has her prophecy of him dying vindicated, there is now proof of concept for death by magic itself without even a battle. Stannis later attempts this with the leeches, though we know those deaths weren't actually caused by said leeches. If Stannis had known from the beginning that he was allotted two magical assassins who could remove the need for a battle, he probably wouldn't have allocated them both outside Storm's End. The logical person to use one on would have been Tywin, which Arya figures out too late. But Melisandre doesn't care about Tywin; she does care about Edric Storm's blood.

You're assuming your own argument to make a point. 

There is no reason to believe that he was only allowed two magical assasins, Melisandre simply says that Stannis is after the Blackwater in a condition so frail that she doesn't want to kill him by having him birth another shadow baby.

Instead we have Stannis with the need to kill both Renly and Penrose. He desperately needs Renly's army if he wants to have a shot and he needs to kill Penrose fast to go to King's Landing.

He could have had Edric's blood just the same by killing Tywin, taking King's Landing and then going back to Storm's End, sort of like Davos proposes, he says why he can't have that. 

 

 

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Yes, when he assaulted a walled city and was not prepared for a cavalry charge, it didn't do much for him.

Sorry, i forgot the part when he says that it would have totally worked for Renly.

What we have is him arguing that his sword is useless in battle.

 

 

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The nature of vengeance is personal. When Ned picked Beric rather than Loras, it was someone who had no connection to Gregor or anyone Gregor had wronged. If he had picked someone who loved one of Gregor's victims, it would be an entirely different story. Cressen is suggesting joining with Robb Stark (whom Stannis believes to be commiting treason by declaring himself king) and giving him vengeance. But Stannis doesn't believe in that. He believes in punishing Cersei for her crimes, just as he punished Davos for his rather than simply treating Davos as an ally or an enemy. Varys says of Stannis "There is no creature on earth half so terrifying as a truly just man", and we're supposed to believe him.

Stannis says that he doesn't want to avenge Ned Stark because he dislikes  him or having the personal bond withhis brother he ought to have had. Stannis is not saying, not even implying, that the he's not avenging Ned Stark because the right thing to do is doing him justice.

No matter how you twist it, they are not alike, in this world or the other.

He tells to Cressen one thing because he knows him the most, he tells Davos other because he knows him less.

 

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Some essential concepts in military strategy are "concentration in space" and "concentation in time". The former is what Robert Baratheon did when he pulled off three victories in a day against armies that would have been too large if all three were combined. The latter is harder to pull off, but it winds up happening at Blackwater, and it permitted Stannis to get hit in the flank, which is much more important than sheer numbers would indicate. It is hitting the wildlings in their flank, unexpectedly, that permits Stannis to win against them (they weren't already engaged with another force right then, so it's not quite concentation in time).

 

it was sheer numbers why he lost at the end as he could never withstand an Lannister- Tyrell attack

 

 

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Correctly? Did you come across an alternate chapter I wasn't aware of? He assumes that Stannis' forces will be completely disordered after that charge, so it won't matter if Renly's own forces can't see well. Another reminder: keeping an infantry line orderly is of vital importance against cavalry. Large numbers of infantry will still fail against them if they lose their ordering. Which is how Stannis beat Mance (not that Mance's host was really the type to form a shield wall).

He says that to Tarly who doesn' contradict him.