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Stannis, Renly and other shenanigans. Vol.1


frenin

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On 4/3/2021 at 7:34 AM, Minsc said:

Yes, but it makes more sense to move slowly when do that march rather than move as quickly as he can towards King's Landing.

There are some different kinds of speed we need to distinguish between. There's as fast as a portion of the army can go, and as fast as the entire army can go. Renly raced to Storm's End faster than his whole army could move. However, prior to that, his whole army was not moving as fast as it could. Instead, it was hanging back while Robb & Tywin fought each other. That's the do-nothing strategy which Tyrion recognized as what he would do in Renly's shoes.

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She was wanting him to stretch his supply line dangerously


There's a difference between extending your supply lines and going beyond your supply lines. Besieging someone, as Cat imagines Ned recommending against Stannis and she wishes were happening against King's Landing, requires that you do the former and not the latter.

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Stannis wasn't going to be able to load his entire army onto his ships in a single night.


Even if he required longer for the entire army it wouldn't mean he was "entrapped". Nobody thinks of him that way... because he wasn't. Stannis wasn't going to leave for reasons particular to Stannis rather than the strategic situation. Stannis was the one demanding battle at a specific time, Renly wasn't forcing it.

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We know it makes a single house ridden by a lady shy

 

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When Stannis raised the blade above his head, men had to turn their heads or cover their eyes. Horses shied, and one threw his rider.


Not one horse, multiple horses, and it was sufficient to throw someone he wasn't even trying to throw.

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Renly and Loras don't know what Lyanna looks like so they were obviously hoping she would remind Robert of her.


Hoping, but they didn't start by finding someone who would actually look like Lyanna. They started with Margaery because she's Loras' sister. Renly shows the picture to Ned without explaining what he's actually up to (so Ned thinks Renly might be in love with her), but he doesn't show the picture to Robert. Instead he just talks her up so Robert has to go by that description and doesn't actually see what Ned saw.

On 4/3/2021 at 12:27 PM, frenin said:

Patriarch can mean father

I'm talking about the social role within the system of patriarchy. When Joffrey gives away Sansa, he's not claiming to be her biological father, nor is Theon in "giving" away Jeyne. There is simply a social role expected to be fulfilled even if the actual father is dead.

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nor Brynden consider Hoster his father


That is an interresting example because Hoster was trying to get Brynden to marry (a traditional responsibility of parents toward their children), and it was his refusal that made him "the Blackfish". Brynden got out from under his brother's authority by becoming the Knight of the Gate at the Mountains of the Moon in the Vale. As such he is under the authority of House Arryn, who were kings long before the Tullys were granted the Riverlands and certainly could never be under their authority. Robb does arrange a marriage for his sister Arya as the new head of House Stark. And Stannis certainly didn't marry Selyse because he wanted to.

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And how that ties to Stannis??


When I discussed Robert's actions as "careless generosity" you asked "Just as the Handship??" The Handship is not a gift that Robert is giving, instead it is a service he's requesting of those he trusts the most & whose wisdom he respects.

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So when you were saying that Stannis was negotiating with Renly you mean that Stannis was offering Renly things Renly already had or were in exchange of his massive army.


Stannis starts from a position of considering all the other self-declared kings to be traitors. He's making the "offer" as an alternative to "sully(ing) Lightbringer with a brother's blood". Although I know there are arguments that daughters inherit before uncles, so it could be an exaggeration to say he's offering strictly nothing (although an adult male might be preferred to a female child as heir even if one weren't as sexist as Stannis).

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Familial tie


It's not a mere "tie" which can be symmetrical, but fealty. One is above the other.

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He's young


And that's a point in his favor? I've already discussed how choices of succession have been made specifically to avoid a child king with a regency. Roose Bolton even says it would be better for Ramsay to kill his younger brothers to avoid that! We also know that bastards are disfavored. Criston Cole helped kick off the Dance of the Dragons by swearing that no bastard would ever hold the throne, and the Blackfyre rebellions have made bastards further despised (even the Blackfyre loyalists at Whitewalls disparage Bittersteel for that, and Targaryen loyalists likewise distrust Bloodraven).

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he's a bachelor


Aegon V being married was considered a point in his favor, not a demerit. Competition over who a boy king should marry, as well as who should be his regent, are both things to be avoided for the stability of the realm.

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Cressen, Selyse, Melisandre, Davos


When Stannis was in KL, most of them were on Dragonstone. Davos is a less certain case, but he wasn't quite the confidant of Stannis then that he would later become.

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While Robert lived and actually even after, Ned did not believe that the Lannisters were going to kill him


Ned hadn't learned the secret Jon Arryn died for most of that time. When he does learn it, he figures he can intimidate Cersei into fleeing since Robert would surely kill her & her children after Ned tells him.

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That both Stannis and Ned believed Arryn was killed by her doesn't mean that they believed Cersei was after them


Jon Arryn died specifically because of what he was doing together with Stannis. People knew they were atypically visiting armorers & brothels together. If someone picked up on Jon Arryn's investigation, they would know that Stannis was part of it. Ned is on the trail afterward and doesn't have reason to think anyone else knows how much he knows until he tells Cersei.

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that reason is entire one you make up


It wasn't me who made it up, Ned came up with Stannis' fear as a motivation for him leaving.

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once the ones putting the target aren't there


Stannis doesn't have to believe that Cersei personally murdered Jon Arryn (Pycelle even says she was heading to Casterly Rock when he died), just as Bran wasn't personally attacked by a member of the Lannister family and LF was on a boat for the Vale when the assassination of Joffrey he arranged was carried out.

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As Hand he has the same power to act against Cersei really


The Hand can act with the powers of the King as long as the King isn't contradicting him (which isn't often for an absentee king who prefers to avoid conflict he can't resolve with his muscles). That's not the same, which is why Cersei was afraid of Ned being given that position.

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we know Stannis was doing and saying very curious things for an afraid man


What was Stannis saying at that point in time? I don't recall Ned encountering many quotes from him in his investigation.

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Why wouldn't he??


He has no reason to in the present.

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Logically we cannot tell the majority of what's going on for him


Indeed, and that is a problem for your reasoning by absence-of-evidence. If we expect the majority isn't going to appear, then for any given instance of a thing he felt, we shouldn't expect to see it.

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Now, where's your proof that Stannis distrusted Pycelle again?


This isn't mathematics and I didn't claim proof, just as there wouldn't be proof he did trust Pycelle. I argue that Pycelle shows himself to be obviously pro-Lannister during Ned's relatively brief tenure as Hand, and the longer period of time Stannis spent would be enough to see that.

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And even that could have been thought of him being ovrely cautious instead of a Lannister man


He wasn't arguing "Let's not be hasty, maybe it was dark and they couldn't see well". He was saying that Gregor (who had been seen beheading his own horse and attacking Loras Tyrell not long ago) was an "annointed knight" with land and "holy vows" and therefore the brigand must be some other man of similar size. He was insisting that people with no authority over Tywin go to him to ask for justice, even though they weren't his people and he owed them no protection whereas Gregor (the accused) was his sworn man. It rather defeats the point of having a central authority above inter-region disputes. This isn't "caution", it's arguing so badly it's almost as if Pycelle is trying to make himself look like an incompetent agent of Tywin's.

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Stannis (even without the bastards) have enough evidence to mount a solid theory


What actual evidence does he have? GRRM had to invent some fantasy version of Mendelian genetics with a super-dominant Baratheon allele that has persisted down through the generations.

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He lost absolutely nothing by trying and at least he warned the future Hand of the King o the danger.


He already tried telling the actual Hand and lost said Hand. The King believes Jon Arryn died of natural causes, the Grand Maester even said as much, so it's just Stannis insisting there is such a danger and that (very conveniently for Stannis) he's now the heir.

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But Stannis didn't want Ned to find out.


Can you come up with a reason why Stannis would want Jon Arryn to know but not for Ned to know? Ned actually finding out would have worked out for Stannis if Robert hadn't gotten gored by a boar.

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Ned wouldn't have died had he been informed from the get go


We know that Ned heard about Lysa's letter blaming the Lannisters for killing Jon Arryn. We know he was told by LF that Tyrion was behind the attempted assassination of Bran (after he fell from a window when most other than the Lannister twins were hunting). Stannis doesn't know Ned knows these things because he didn't get to read those chapters. He just knows what happens the last time he tried telling the Hand.

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All of that could have been avoided had Stannis opened his mouth, he wanted Robert to die instead.


Then why did he tell Jon Arryn? Was that some triple-bankshot somehow aimed at Robert's death?

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What has that to do with anything?


The time & resources Stannis required to convince Jon are relevant to what he should expect would be required to convince Ned.

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Well yes, he actually has.  He has the book and the lineage.


Jon Arryn borrowed it from Pycelle. Pycelle didn't say anything about Stannis ever having it. Jon evidently needed some extra convincing and decided to make sure before making an accusation based on some bastards. If Stannis had taken the book, then it wouldn't be there for Ned to read when he reached KL.

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No, him wanting Robert to die starts the moment he abandons him. After Arryn's death.


Why would Stannis' motivation change based on that? Shouldn't switching from wanting to inform his brother/king to wanting him dead require a really big change?

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he abandons his brothers to a sure danger waiting for them to die without fixing their own succession, so their titles and claims pass to him


If there's no fix to the succesion, then Joffrey inherits. Letting Robert know so that Cersei's children get removed is actually the best way to ensure it passes to Stannis instead! And since Robert didn't know, why would Stannis conclude he was in "sure danger"? They hadn't killed Robert in all that time, because Joffrey was still set to inherit and Robert wasn't causing any problems. They only killed Jon Arryn after Stannis told him, whereas Robert still hasn't been told.

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He leaves King's Landing, he steals the Royal Fleet and he starts hiring sellswords and calling the banners, waiting for the moment the good news came.


But Stannis doesn't immediately declare himself king, he waits until after both Robb & Renly have. He actually sends out his declaration after he learns a way to get an army. The ships he gathered were useful, but he didn't assume they'd be sufficient by themselves. You could argue he was banking on Ned discovering what happened and busting the Lannisters for that, but if Ned succeeds why assume Robert would die?

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Guilt of feart thingy.

Stannis does not believe Cersei is after him.

You objected that I was using Ned's logic without his "context thoughts", but we don't actually have any of Stannis thoughts about whether Cersei is after him or not.

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There was the possibility of her telling her brother in law the new Hand of the King and then punishing Cersei for poisoning Jon Arryn.


Cersei actually knows she wasn't behind Jon's poisoning, and she doesn't know Lysa was told by LF to frame her for that. Instead she's worried that Jon might have told his wife about the twincest. Lysa doesn't actually know about the twincest (she misinterprets "the seed is strong") and what motivation the Lannisters would have to kill Jon... but LF knew.

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He decides to let his brother die.


He feels some guilt.
He leaves.


Why would he feel guilt BEFORE leaving? And why was Robert NOW in danger of death when the Lannisters had let him live for all these years?

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i do not indeed believe Stannis felt remorse about abandoning Robert


I don't think he regarded it as "abandoning Robert". The Small Council was even fine with Stannis' absence rather than clamoring for him to return (although I imagine he was hoping Robert would eventually insist he needed Stannis). It is the case that Stannis insists on removing the word "beloved" ("a lie") as applied to Robert in his letter, and lumps him in with Jon Arryn & Ned Stark as among those for whom Stannis will get "justice" from Cersei (although he also notes that Cersei merely "may have" killed him).

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But as i said, i don't believe that Stannis ever regretted what he did to Robert.


He didn't kill Robert, Cersei did (via Lancel & a boar).

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Stannis is not among them even when he's thinking about sending a spy to kill Jon Snow and Stannis being unable to do much about it.


She doesn't think "Only Tyrion and Jon Snow remained", even as she's thinking about killing the latter. Even if she does want Jon Snow dead, he's up at the Wall and not expected to be coming south. Cersei knows Tyrion killed Tywin and (mistakenly) thinks he's still around to threaten her. She began by thinking of her father Tywin, so it's natural to connect him to his youngest son & murderer.

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Stannis doesn't say that tho.

He says he's a green boy.

That conversation wasn't about whether Stannis should fear Robb but whether he should join forces with him to claim the throne (and half the realm by geography).

he tells Cat his time will come


He's proclaiming himself to be king of all 7 kingdoms. Is he going to tell Cat "Your son should bend the knee to me, but also I'm scared of him"? Renly prohibits Cat from leaving because he wants her to see Renly's army take out Stannis, and then tell Robb about it. Everyone claiming the Iron Throne is going to indicate that Robb should fear them rather than the other way around.

We can't tell, we are not shown that.


You see this is a common problem! But unlike you, I'm not going to argue that if we don't have evidence for a proposition therefore we must conclude it is false. Instead I'm going to ask you to reason about it using what you do know. So I ask again, what did he have to fear? Did he think Cersei was going to convince Robert to kill him? Is that more plausible than him not actually being afraid prior to Robert getting gored?

Those forces were not working to return them to power because they believe them rightful but because they were means to destroying Robert's regime.


Why would anyone support them rather than, say, the Tyrells (since the original thread imagined Mace just claiming the kingdom himself)? The logical answer is that legitimacy actually does matter, and that's why Tywin ordered Rhaegar's children killed.

Yet she tells Robb to bend the knee after the Blackwater?? Then it's up to her?


It's still not up to her, but by then she's heard that her two youngest have been killed by Theon and she's gotten desperate. Releasing Jaime shows how desperate she was.

The latter fights in an event unrelated to the war that entangles with the ongoing war, it's not a theater by any stretch of the imagination.


The Riverlands are a major theater of the war. Beric Dondarrion was fighting Gregor Clegane prior to the profusion of kings, and he continued fighting afterward. Robb Stark proclaims himself king of both the North and Riverlands, and the riverlords accept this because he's acting to defend them against the same raids Beric is also acting against.

He was meaning making peace on his terms (might be able) not submitting to Stannis.


Robb didn't say anything about what "terms" the peace would be under. He was fighting in response to what the Lannisters had done to his family, their continued hold over his sisters (or at least one of them), and the aforementioned raiding of the Riverlands. If Stannis takes all them out, most of Robb's motivation goes away. The remaining questions would be whether Stannis insists on punishing Robb for having previously proclaimed himself king and whether the new regime can be trusted enough not to screw over the Starks like previous ones had.

It's the same


The Tyrells actually did come around to supporting the Lannisters, participating militarily in the Blackwater and then later attacking Stannis' remaining strongholds in the south. The Martells don't do any of that, so no it's not the same.

He has only won twice


He outlasted Mace Tyrell at Storm's End, which you want to dismiss but no one else does because it's evidence of Stannis' ability to stick through a tough situation. He raised a navy to attack Dragonstone, which you might dismiss because the fleet there was destroyed in a storm, but he did still take it. He smashed the Iron Fleet at Fair Isle, which you presumably count as one victory, but then afterward he also subdued Great Wyk while others were taking Pyke. You might not count it as a military victory, but he also brought a fleet to Sisterton to hang smugglers and force their friend Godric Borrell to keep the Night Lamp on. He nearly took KL before a relief force arrived to flank him, leading to his one defeat. Afterward he smashed Mance Rayder at 20-1 odds (in which Mance was captured, whereas Stannis' escape at the Blackwater made possible his victory at the Wall), then seized Deepwood Motte (against capturing the enemy leader).

yet no one believes  it odd to call him an experimented commander


No one believes it odd, because it's not odd. You are the one with the odd belief that all the characters in Stannis' world are wrong about his experience.

Which was?? A sign from god?


Amusingly enough, it was Melisandre's vision which she attributes to her god which told him if he went to Storm's End then Renly would bring his army which Stannis would then obtain. Another such vision tells him his destiny is to fight in the north, which he does.

Stannis is told to ally with Renly, Stannis refuses and plots to kill him.


Stannis does ask Renly to join forces with him as his heir, even though he'd earlier sworn not to treat with him at all while he was calling himself king.

Stannis is told not to waste time trying to capture Storm's End right away and he refuses.


This delay does turn out to prevent a victory at the Blackwater, but he also Melisandre's assurance that he could win the castle (and Edric) without a long siege or even a fight, which turned out to be as correct as her earlier claim about getting an army from Renly.

Stannis is told not to kill Edric, he again refuses


When Melisandre, who had made multiple correct predictions seeminly impossible without magical foresight, told him he had to sacrifice Edric he instead insisted on using Edric's "king's blood" via leeches while she reiterated "this is not the way". So you could have had another example of him ignoring the advice of someone, this time someone supernaturally reliable!

Rhaegar also had more followers than him by that point


There was never a Great Council to vote on Aerys vs Rhaegar, so I don't know how we can be confident about their respective numbers.

Oh, you talk as if that was the reason behind his decision.


A reason.

Not as if there were two childs, he disliked one, he adored the other


It seems entirely plausible that Aerys would simply personally prefer his own son to his grandson,  but Aegon VI was around so briefly we really don't have much about him and the king.

he moved to save one and he was trying to incinerate the other


Rhaegar's children were half-Martell, and thus he was using them as leverage over the Martells.

Egg's only competion was a baby named Maegor whose blood no one wanted on the throne


The others named were Vaella and Aemon (Aenys Blackfyre's candidacy was removed via murder). Vaella would have been about 11, but in addition to being young she was also female (and thus opposed by the Iron Precedent) and simple-minded.

But the Baratheon brothers were not the closest substitutes for the crown. Joffrey and Tommen were


I said the Baratheon brothers were the closest substitutes to each other, which I noted by listing their commonalities.

As it was obvious that the only way Tommen and Joffrey were going to be forced out of the throne


I think you forgot a clause explaining what that only way would be.

No, they are not. Decisive victories are those that decide the outcome of a war.


That would imply there can only be a single decisive victory in a war, which isn't how any military historian thinks. Yandel, for instance, says Maegor achieved a "decisive victory" at the Great Fork over the Faith Militant, even though they remained his "bitterest enemy for all of his reign" and he continued fighting until he died with enemies closing in around him.

Why should "magic" factor in Renly's thought process


Magic isn't actually required for those counterfactuals in which Stannis proceeds directly to KL with the armies of the Stormlands. Stannis nearly took KL without Melisandre, so those forces (unbloodied by any battle between Stannis & Renly) would have been sufficient and Renly could have achieved the primary goal you ascribe to him of getting rid of Cersei.

The relief force was always going to come to King's Landing


The question is when they would get there. If they could have gotten there earlier, they would have. After all, men behind walls are more more than ones outside them.

Well, ofc. With a hundred thousand army is difficult not to smash anyone.


Mance didn't smash Stannis with a far larger army.

Except he can't. The marriage with Margaery means the crown


How does marrying Margaery prohibit any action on his part other than marrying someone else? I think rather it is the Tyrells who are bound to him after that marriage (and Loras swearing himself into the Rainbow Guard).

Why would he??


First off, primogeniture means the oldest brother always inherits the throne ahead of the younger brother and the older brother never owes fealty to the younger. Renly's idea of chucking that just means anybody could declare himself king even after Renly has taken the throne and the only question would be whether they can kill Renly. Secondly, Stannis is a more experienced commander and would have better odds against the Lannisters commanding their combined forces.

He gains little by it


He gains the guaranteed elimination of Cersei, which you claim is his actual priority!

He lays out  his reasons quite well.


Indeed he does, living out the fantasy he had since childhood: "The crown will suit me, as it never suited Robert and would not suit Stannis. I have it in me to be a great king, strong yet generous, clever, just, diligent, loyal to my friends and terrible to my enemies, yet capable of forgiveness, patient"
Contrast with Stannis, who only speaks of it as his duty which he never asked for.

He was indeed handing the kingdom over to Ned


The kingdom would be controlled by whoever controlled Joffrey. Renly's swords would continue to do that even as Ned remained nominally in control. And if Renly ever decided he didn't want Ned as Lord Protector (since they didn't see eye to eye on a number of things), he would just need to ensure it was his swords specifically rather than Ned's (with the bannermen of the North far from KL) in control of Joffrey.

he certainly does not rebukes and dismiss her allegations that he would be begging


"I do not beg. Of anyone. Mind you remember that, woman" actually does sound like a rebuke. And he continues insisting that he needs to obtain swords rather than relying on her faith. What actually determines his decision is hearing about Melisandre's vision.

i'm saying that stating something as obvious when we have no proof of it (conclusive or otherwise) and there are other facts ruling against it is pure bias


Which bit did I say was "obvious"? I'm not making a claim about the battle-that-never-was at Storm's End comparable to GRRM confirming that Joffrey was poisoned via the wine rather than pie.

I don't remember the correlation between participating in tourneys and being a knight of the summer.


Renly puts on such competitions and names Brienne to his Rainbow Guard as the result of that. Catelyn observes that and dubs them the knights of summer after thinking "It is all a game to them still, a tourney writ large".

what Cat is talking about and arguing that war will make them grow


I don't recall her saying anything about growing. She said that she pities them because winter is coming and they aren't taking things seriously. Some of them are just going to die rather than grow.

We see him arguing how Renly can be killed, since he is being surrounded by a host and his knights.


That's him chiding Selyse for bringing up Renly's death. We don't hear the specifics for how Renly could actually die because Cressen leaves. The closest thing to any specification is Stannis' line about sullying Lightbringer (which he acquired after hearing of Melisandre's vision and deciding to go with that).

Meli is manipulative


I'm glad you agree and would like to note that the app confirms she was doing that with the leeches. She knew the ritual wasn't actually doing anything, she was just doing it to convince Stannis since she knew what would actually happen.

And Melisandre actually kills Penrose and Renly, she needed relative access to them while she didn't for the others


She only needed special access for Penrose because Storm's End was protected by spells. She explicitly distinguished that case from Renly.

Why you don't think that Meli would tell them the how Renly would die??


She doesn't have to. And if she had told Stannis right away she had this power he would have wanted to use it specifically for his political goals which she doesn't actually care about. Limiting her statements to be about seeing specific people dead limits Stannis' options to those she has decided for him.

here's no reason to think she has done before... because...


With Stannis specifically. If she's extremely old than she may have done something like that years ago, but we know it drains the life force of the other person. Stannis doesn't start out drained, there doesn't seem to be anyone he's assassinated before, and people talk as if Stannis only recently took up with Mel.

That they existed?? We do get and a lot amount of talk about an assasination that did happen.


They don't actually use a word like "assassination". Nothing in the runup is actually inconsistent with the idea of him being killed in battle via Lightbringer as Stannis alludes to.

Why would Devan be told not to bother him??


If there's no need for Stannis to wake up, then there's no need to assign anyone the task of waking him up. It was assigned because, as Stannis said, he knew Renly was attacking at dawn (as he had specifically told Renly to, knowing as Randyll did how that advantaged his position).

Stannis can appear normalcy


Then I hope you can agree there is just the appearance of normalcy. There's no indication that there will be something other than a battle.

Why in the world would Stannis openly made known that he's becoming  a kinslayer??


He tells Renly that he will destroy him if there is a battle, and Renly bending the knee was the explicit alternative to Stannis sullying Lightbringer with his brother's blood. So he's open about his willingness to be a kinslayer, and Renly is as well in somewhat less explicit terms.

So if i hire a hitman and the hitman kills his target while I'm asleep... i'm not killing anyone?


He didn't hire a hitman, he had sex with Melisandre (something he continues to do even after she stops producing shadows). And Melisandre isn't someone he hired, she instead sought him out for her own prophetic reasons which aren't the same as Stannis'.

conceived by Stannis, guided by Stannis, controlled by Stannis and that Stannis created with the intention of killing his brother


We only know that first bit, in the sense that a child is "conceived" by its father. We don't even see the shadow being "guided" into the tent from outside, instead it just stops syncing up with Renly. Melisandre is a shadowbinder, it's her magic which creates the shadows. She hits on both Davos & Jon Snow at points, and this isn't because she's going to rely on either of them to do any of those things other than paternal conception. She's taking their lifeforce to do with what she will.

No, we get Stannis being unable to sleep after the fact


We get him being tormented by dreams. And dreams is how he perceives them.

We get Stannis saying that he loved Renly when he was planning to kill Renly


He says "I know that now", implying he didn't know it earlier.

There is no reason to believe that he was only allowed two magical assasins, Melisandre simply says that Stannis is after the Blackwater in a condition so frail that she doesn't want to kill him by having him birth another shadow baby.


If you want to amend "only two" to "only two he can survive creating", that's fine. And Melisandre doesn't say anything about the Blackwater reducing Stannis' fire. Instead what can "draw off his fire" is creating these shadows.

he needs to kill Penrose fast to go to King's Landing


He doesn't need Storm's End at all to go to KL (as you note Davos knows). There's just green boys and old men there. Penrose has to die because Melisandre has already decided on it (to obtain Edric Storm), and after her earlier prophecy was vindicated Stannis is going to do as she says. And from his POV there's little reason not to since he gains a nigh-impregnable castle and "proof" at the mere cost of one day and none of his own men. We know that one day will make a big difference, but Stannis didn't get to read those chapters.

He could have had Edric's blood


Stannis isn't talking about Edric's blood at that point, but instead how he's "proof" of Stannis' incest claims. Melisandre starts demanding Edric's blood after Blackwater, and Stannis is disinclined to sacrifice him hence using leeches instead.

What we have is him arguing that his sword is useless in battle.


Not that it is useless, but that it did serve him like any other sword at that specific battle (which he lost). And he can generalize from it failing to guarantee a victory at that battle to scoffing at it being vital to the fate of humanity.

Stannis says that he doesn't want to avenge Ned Stark because he dislikes  him or having the personal bond withhis brother he ought to have had. Stannis is not saying, not even implying, that the he's not avenging Ned Stark because the right thing to do is doing him justice.


There was never any question for Stannis as to whether he was going to kill Cersei and her children. Robb Stark would want to do the same. For Robb Stark it would be personal, whereas part of the point of Stannis' character is the idea of impersonal justice without mercy (that last bit distinguishes him from Ned Stark). Whenn Stannis removed Davos' fingers, that wasn't vengeance but justice (as Stannis sees it). Stannis proclaims that "Every man shall reap what he has sown, from the highest lord to the lowest gutter rat", and this is not a matter of those people personally wronging him. Instead they wrong the kingdom (his political philosophy is anachronistically centralist for someone in a feudal society). And Stannis must punish them not because it will satisfy a need for vengeance on his part, but because it's his duty and he believes all must do their duty. And he also thinks that since the North is sworn to the Seven Kingdoms the Starks have a duty to remain in it, which he's not going to permit them to shirk merely because they have some justified grievances with those currently on the throne.

He tells to Cressen one thing because he knows him the most, he tells Davos other because he knows him less.


I don't follow the logic about how Stannis knowing these two for different amounts of time results in that. Instead Cressen suggests allying with Robb to get vengeance, whereas Davos' question is why Stannis is pursuing the throne. Those are two different questions rather than simply two different people.

He says that to Tarly who doesn' contradict him.


If an underling stops trying to argue with their boss, it doesn't mean the boss is correct.

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1 hour ago, FictionIsntReal said:

There's a difference between extending your supply lines and going beyond your supply lines. Besieging someone, as Cat imagines Ned recommending against Stannis and she wishes were happening against King's Landing, requires that you do the former and not the latter.

Renly has no reason to besiege Stannis in the manner that Catelyn describe.  Stannis isn't behind any walls that requires a slow weight.  There is a reason neither Tarly or Rowan are worried about their supply line.  Likely because it isn't actually an issue in their situation.  It would be an issue at King's Landing, which is why Catelyn's complaints don't make sense.  It makes sense to move faster against Stannis than King's Landing.

1 hour ago, FictionIsntReal said:

Even if he required longer for the entire army it wouldn't mean he was "entrapped". Nobody thinks of him that way... because he wasn't. Stannis wasn't going to leave for reasons particular to Stannis rather than the strategic situation. Stannis was the one demanding battle at a specific time, Renly wasn't forcing it.

If Stannis can't get his entire army onto his fleet before Renly's attack than he is good at entrapped.  Renly is best served by knocking him out before he attempt to flee.

1 hour ago, FictionIsntReal said:

Not one horse, multiple horses, and it was sufficient to throw someone he wasn't even trying to throw.

Meanwhile, when he pulls it out as Storm's End parley is only causes Catelyn's horse to shy.  Sorry, until I read it in an actual book any theory that Stannis waving around Lightbringer winning any battle holds less weight to me than Ramsay slaughtering Stannis.  Moreover, your quote selection just suggests it would equally negatively impact Stannis's troops thus negating its value.

1 hour ago, FictionIsntReal said:

Hoping, but they didn't start by finding someone who would actually look like Lyanna. They started with Margaery because she's Loras' sister. Renly shows the picture to Ned without explaining what he's actually up to (so Ned thinks Renly might be in love with her), but he doesn't show the picture to Robert. Instead he just talks her up so Robert has to go by that description and doesn't actually see what Ned saw.

Renly shows the picture to Ned in hopes Ned will confirm that she is a passeable enough for a new Lyanna.  Simply, the fact that she doesn't just means the plan might fail not they know about the incest.

 

 

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20 hours ago, FictionIsntReal said:

I'm talking about the social role within the system of patriarchy. When Joffrey gives away Sansa, he's not claiming to be her biological father, nor is Theon in "giving" away Jeyne. There is simply a social role expected to be fulfilled even if the actual father is dead.

A social role it's not the same as a psychological one, even as of today in western societies eldest brothers continue to give away their sisters in absence of a father, That doesn't mean  they are expected to be the father by the siblings. Especially grown ones

 

 

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That is an interresting example because Hoster was trying to get Brynden to marry (a traditional responsibility of parents toward their children), and it was his refusal that made him "the Blackfish". Brynden got out from under his brother's authority by becoming the Knight of the Gate at the Mountains of the Moon in the Vale. As such he is under the authority of House Arryn, who were kings long before the Tullys were granted the Riverlands and certainly could never be under their authority. Robb does arrange a marriage for his sister Arya as the new head of House Stark. And Stannis certainly didn't marry Selyse because he wanted to.

Hoster is the head of his clan and acts like that, but neither him nor Brynden believe he is some sort of a father to him.

We don't even know who married Stannis, for all we knoe both him and Robert were following an earlier arrangement made by Steffon.

 

 

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When I discussed Robert's actions as "careless generosity" you asked "Just as the Handship??" The Handship is not a gift that Robert is giving, instead it is a service he's requesting of those he trusts the most & whose wisdom he respects.

The Handship is actually both. 

 

 

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Stannis starts from a position of considering all the other self-declared kings to be traitors. He's making the "offer" as an alternative to "sully(ing) Lightbringer with a brother's blood". Although I know there are arguments that daughters inherit before uncles, so it could be an exaggeration to say he's offering strictly nothing (although an adult male might be preferred to a female child as heir even if one weren't as sexist as Stannis).

So, he's actually not making any offer in your own words. In exchange of his massive army and the obvious role of kingmaker... Renly  gets... nothing he didn't already have. Nothing.

 

 

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It's not a mere "tie" which can be symmetrical, but fealty. One is above the other.

Yet one cannot randomly strip the lands and titles of the other.

 

 

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And that's a point in his favor? I've already discussed how choices of succession have been made specifically to avoid a child king with a regency. Roose Bolton even says it would be better for Ramsay to kill his younger brothers to avoid that! We also know that bastards are disfavored. Criston Cole helped kick off the Dance of the Dragons by swearing that no bastard would ever hold the throne, and the Blackfyre rebellions have made bastards further despised (even the Blackfyre loyalists at Whitewalls disparage Bittersteel for that, and Targaryen loyalists likewise distrust Bloodraven).

 

  1. Yes, that's a point of his favor.
  2. I'm sorry i'm not impressed by your two very exceptions.
  3. Roose Bolton is the definition of a psychopath, i don't really believe he is the go to in this case yet suit yourself.
  4. The Starks, the Arryns, the Lannisters, the Hightowers, the Gardeners, the Baratheons,the Targaryens ,the Tyrells... They all favored regency in one point or another.
  5. Bastards are disfavored, legitimized bastards not so much. as the multiple Blackfyre Rebellions would attest.
  6. A legitimized bastard kid with the disposition of Renly and Robert, whom evertone loved is still a far better option than Stannis, whom no one likes.

 

 

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Aegon V being married was considered a point in his favor, not a demerit. Competition over who a boy king should marry, as well as who should be his regent, are both things to be avoided for the stability of the realm

Nope, that's not said. Him having grown sons as heirs is indeed an strong argument in his favour, regardless whether it's mentioned or not. Stannis's only heir is a litle girl with an incurable disease.

Robert has already picked a regent for his heir and it's up to said regent to choose.

 

 

 

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When Stannis was in KL, most of them were on Dragonstone. Davos is a less certain case, but he wasn't quite the confidant of Stannis then that he would later become.

They were on Dragonstone precisely because of Stannis. As in Stannis could have dispatched them if he ever wanted to do so, he didn't want to.

Davos certainly wasn't Hand material by then, but he was indeed his only confidany by that time,

 

 

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Ned hadn't learned the secret Jon Arryn died for most of that time. When he does learn it, he figures he can intimidate Cersei into fleeing since Robert would surely kill her & her children after Ned tells him.

So, Ned actually does not believe the Lannisters are going to kill him even after he tells them that he knows their secret. 

That doesn't mean that Stannis had the same thought of process Ned did, just to prove that your fight or flight approach isn't the only logical conclussion to draw. Especially not when Stannis never shows being afraid for his life,  never says he is afreaid for his live, never hints he's afraid for his life.

 

 

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Jon Arryn died specifically because of what he was doing together with Stannis. People knew they were atypically visiting armorers & brothels together. If someone picked up on Jon Arryn's investigation, they would know that Stannis was part of it. Ned is on the trail afterward and doesn't have reason to think anyone else knows how much he knows until he tells Cersei.

I don't know what this has to do you with what i said. So i'll repeat myself. 

 

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That both Stannis and Ned believed Arryn was killed by her doesn't mean that they believed Cersei was after them

 

 

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It wasn't me who made it up, Ned came up with Stannis' fear as a motivation for him leaving.

You came up with the former before you brought up the latter. 

But no, i don't believe that you made up the concept rather than just repeating it.

 

 

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Stannis doesn't have to believe that Cersei personally murdered Jon Arryn (Pycelle even says she was heading to Casterly Rock when he died), just as Bran wasn't personally attacked by a member of the Lannister family and LF was on a boat for the Vale when the assassination of Joffrey he arranged was carried out.

? I think that much is clear but her goons are more inactive once she's not there and her actions can be carried out far more easily when she's there. 

Besides,Stannis being Hand doesn't magically make him immune to being assasinated.

 

 

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The Hand can act with the powers of the King as long as the King isn't contradicting him (which isn't often for an absentee king who prefers to avoid conflict he can't resolve with his muscles). That's not the same, which is why Cersei was afraid of Ned being given that position.

Any member of the Coucil can act with the powers of the King as long as the King is bestowing him that power, Renly was the one ruling the country during Robert's absence. Stannis wouldn't have any more power to act against Cersei as Hand that he would have as Master of Ships, he would have to go through Robert first anyway.

Cersei was not afraid of Ned being given that position because he would be acting with the power of a king, she rather specifically feared Ned's possible influence over Robert, especially if the twincest came to light.

 

 

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What was Stannis saying at that point in time? I don't recall Ned encountering many quotes from him in his investigation.

Stannis was hiring sellswords and calling his banners at that point. Both Varys and Cressen  tells us so.

Stannis was preparing for war. Not being paranoid over a made up assaination plan.

 

 

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He has no reason to in the present.

Sure he has. Fear is always a powerful factor that is usually brought up, not hidden under the mat and never talked about it never again.

Stannis being afraid for his life  yet neither him nor his circled ever bringing that up borders the impossibility. And for us to believe he was under such conditions is more an act of faith rather than any rational conclussion.

 

 

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Indeed, and that is a problem for your reasoning by absence-of-evidence. If we expect the majority isn't going to appear, then for any given instance of a thing he felt, we shouldn't expect to see it.

Actually no, Him being afraid for his life is exactly what anyone would expect to see. 

What i can't do is assuming what he was feeling, if i don't have any clue, which is exactly what you're doing. 

 

 

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This isn't mathematics and I didn't claim proof, just as there wouldn't be proof he did trust Pycelle. I argue that Pycelle shows himself to be obviously pro-Lannister during Ned's relatively brief tenure as Hand, and the longer period of time Stannis spent would be enough to see that.

No, you claimed that he would distrust Pycelle based on a behavior we have no reason to believe Pycelle displayed before and the conclussions other character came up with. 

The only time shows himself to be obviously pro Lannister is during Gregor's trial (which not really but whatever) he does not show to be  obviously pro Lannister in any other scene prior that, unless we have a reason to believe similar events happened. hen your argument is simply moot.

Stannis doesn't need to trust Pycelle for him to send a letter via him, he simply needs to believe him a regular maester. Stannis does never mention Pycelle when he talks about the bad apples of the council.

 

 

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He wasn't arguing "Let's not be hasty, maybe it was dark and they couldn't see well". He was saying that Gregor (who had been seen beheading his own horse and attacking Loras Tyrell not long ago) was an "annointed knight" with land and "holy vows" and therefore the brigand must be some other man of similar size. He was insisting that people with no authority over Tywin go to him to ask for justice, even though they weren't his people and he owed them no protection whereas Gregor (the accused) was his sworn man. It rather defeats the point of having a central authority above inter-region disputes. This isn't "caution", it's arguing so badly it's almost as if Pycelle is trying to make himself look like an incompetent agent of Tywin's.

Fair enough.

 

 

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What actual evidence does he have? GRRM had to invent some fantasy version of Mendelian genetics with a super-dominant Baratheon allele that has persisted down through the generations.

Well, his evidence is exactly the fantasy version of Mendelian genetics. It's the exact evidence that makes Ned understand the truth.

 

 

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He already tried telling the actual Hand and lost said Hand. The King believes Jon Arryn died of natural causes, the Grand Maester even said as much, so it's just Stannis insisting there is such a danger and that (very conveniently for Stannis) he's now the heir.

Stannis doesn't care whether Ned lives or dies, so yes, he doesn't  lose anything. And Stannis actually has a motive for it,

It only takes Stannis saying Ned that Jon Arryn was murdered for Ned to be suspicious, especially because Ned's predisposed against King's Landing.

And even you have understood that Stannis is only the heir if Robert wants him to be by this point, so i'll simply ignore this bit.

 

 

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Can you come up with a reason why Stannis would want Jon Arryn to know but not for Ned to know? Ned actually finding out would have worked out for Stannis if Robert hadn't gotten gored by a boar.

Stannis wanted Robert to be killed without having the chance to ruling (properly) over his succesion. Stannis wanted to be king by that point.

 

 

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We know that Ned heard about Lysa's letter blaming the Lannisters for killing Jon Arryn. We know he was told by LF that Tyrion was behind the attempted assassination of Bran (after he fell from a window when most other than the Lannister twins were hunting). Stannis doesn't know Ned knows these things because he didn't get to read those chapters. He just knows what happens the last time he tried telling the Hand.

What?? Ned was already predisposed against the Lannisters by then and Lysa telling his sister about the Lannisters serves just as much.

Stannis knows that Ned is going to be named Hand and he is done with Robert, unless ofc you're telling me that Stannis believe Ned could have been killed by the Lannisters... in Winterfell.

In which case, this new goalpost is hilarious.

 

 

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Then why did he tell Jon Arryn? Was that some triple-bankshot somehow aimed at Robert's death?

Because he didn't want Robert by then.

You see people can and do have different thoughts and behaviour depending of the context. Robert ignoring Stannis, yet again, for Ned, yet again, was the straw that broke the camel's back. A point of no return if you will.

He decided to leave Robert to his fate, one he knew was almost certainly death, he stole his fleet, he refused to make any contact whatsoever to people that would have solved the conflict and started pre`paring for the war of succesion that would result with his death.

 

 

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The time & resources Stannis required to convince Jon are relevant to what he should expect would be required to convince Ned.

He didn't convice Jon Arryn, he convinced him to  investigate it, since at that point Stannis only had suspicious, the time and resources required to explain or prove the viability of a theory are certainly less than the time required to determine whether it's viable or not.

 

 

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Jon Arryn borrowed it from Pycelle. Pycelle didn't say anything about Stannis ever having it. Jon evidently needed some extra convincing and decided to make sure before making an accusation based on some bastards. If Stannis had taken the book, then it wouldn't be there for Ned to read when he reached KL.

Stannis could have taken the book had he ever wanted to and he did it.

The book is only proof that there is basis for conspirancy, the bastards  already confirm the evidence.If Stannis had taken the book to Ned, he would have already read it by the time he reached KL.

 

 

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Why would Stannis' motivation change based on that? Shouldn't switching from wanting to inform his brother/king to wanting him dead require a really big change?

Because he belives he's being mistreated and neglected yet another time and he's sick of it.

Not all drastic decisions require really big changes, a wrong word or action at the wrong time have lead and still lead people to do atrocities.

 

 

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If there's no fix to the succesion, then Joffrey inherits. Letting Robert know so that Cersei's children get removed is actually the best way to ensure it passes to Stannis instead! And since Robert didn't know, why would Stannis conclude he was in "sure danger"? They hadn't killed Robert in all that time, because Joffrey was still set to inherit and Robert wasn't causing any problems. They only killed Jon Arryn after Stannis told him, whereas Robert still hasn't been told.

  • Sure but Joffrey is a bastard and the Lannisters are despised enough for Stannis to sway doubters, option that disappears when both Renly and Robb crown themselves dragging 3/4 of the Realm with them.
  • Unless Robert were to spontaneously combust upon hearing the news and killing Cersei and the kids, that idea doesn't hold any water.
  • Because people were stumbling on the secret. They hadn't kill Robert in all that time because no one apparently knew about the secret, with people starting to suspect them. The only way to protect them all is to kill Robert. Robert is a rather important loose end.

 

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But Stannis doesn't immediately declare himself king, he waits until after both Robb & Renly have. He actually sends out his declaration after he learns a way to get an army. The ships he gathered were useful, but he didn't assume they'd be sufficient by themselves. You could argue he was banking on Ned discovering what happened and busting the Lannisters for that, but if Ned succeeds why assume Robert would die?

Which is stupid on his part, it doesn't change his motives. We know for a fact Stannis was already preparing for the war long before it started. He calls his banners and hires sellswords long before mess started.

He was never banking on Ned discovering the twincest so... Ned had no reaso whatsoever to discover the twincest, and it took twelve years and LF for Stannis to start suspecting something was aloof.

 

 

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You objected that I was using Ned's logic without his "context thoughts", but we don't actually have any of Stannis thoughts about whether Cersei is after him or not.

We know that Stannis was not afraid for his life, that's the pre requisite.

 

 

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Cersei actually knows she wasn't behind Jon's poisoning, and she doesn't know Lysa was told by LF to frame her for that. Instead she's worried that Jon might have told his wife about the twincest. Lysa doesn't actually know about the twincest (she misinterprets "the seed is strong") and what motivation the Lannisters would have to kill Jon... but LF knew.

Hmm fair enough. Since both are high treason, both serve just as well.

 

 

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Why would he feel guilt BEFORE leaving? And why was Robert NOW in danger of death when the Lannisters had let him live for all these years?

  1. He was abandoning his brother to die, 
  2. Because NOW people are starting to suspect the children, The quickest way to make sure that the Lannister die is for someone to tell Robert, with Joffrey on the Throne, such problem is greatly minimized.

 

 

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I don't think he regarded it as "abandoning Robert". The Small Council was even fine with Stannis' absence rather than clamoring for him to return (although I imagine he was hoping Robert would eventually insist he needed Stannis). It is the case that Stannis insists on removing the word "beloved" ("a lie") as applied to Robert in his letter, and lumps him in with Jon Arryn & Ned Stark as among those for whom Stannis will get "justice" from Cersei (although he also notes that Cersei merely "may have" killed him).

The Small Council didn't know or had any reason to believe that Robert's days were numbered, Stannis did. They simply assume Stannis was throwing a fit and would return within time,

The latter, we have already discussed about gestures to the gallery and the actual truth. Stannis calls Robert a curse.

 

 

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He didn't kill Robert, Cersei did (via Lancel & a boar).

No,  he simply abandoned him to a certain death. So he did do something to him.

I don't really believe i have to explain why abandoning your brother to danger is shitty with in world examples, since it's a universal concept but...

When arguing whether Ned should  go to King's Landing or not, the inmorality about abandoning someone he regarded as a brother in the hands of those who wanted to kill them, is used by Cat to convince him.

 

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She doesn't think "Only Tyrion and Jon Snow remained", even as she's thinking about killing the latter. Even if she does want Jon Snow dead, he's up at the Wall and not expected to be coming south. Cersei knows Tyrion killed Tywin and (mistakenly) thinks he's still around to threaten her. She began by thinking of her father Tywin, so it's natural to connect him to his youngest son & murderer.

He doesn't believe Jon Snow as one of her more ravenous enemies, certainly not like Arryn, Ned or Tyrion. She doesn't believe Bronn is and she also plots to kill him.

 

 

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That conversation wasn't about whether Stannis should fear Robb but whether he should join forces with him to claim the throne (and half the realm by geography).

And Stannis says that Robb is a green boy, ie and inexperienced soldier not to be feared in battle. 

 

 

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He's proclaiming himself to be king of all 7 kingdoms. Is he going to tell Cat "Your son should bend the knee to me, but also I'm scared of him"? Renly prohibits Cat from leaving because he wants her to see Renly's army take out Stannis, and then tell Robb about it. Everyone claiming the Iron Throne is going to indicate that Robb should fear them rather than the other way around.

So, what i was saying.

 

 

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You see this is a common problem! But unlike you, I'm not going to argue that if we don't have evidence for a proposition therefore we must conclude it is false. Instead I'm going to ask you to reason about it using what you do know. So I ask again, what did he have to fear? Did he think Cersei was going to convince Robert to kill him? Is that more plausible than him not actually being afraid prior to Robert getting gored?

???

There is a difference between a proposition made by the characters and a proposition made by the readers.

We know that Renly fears Cersei and we know that Cersei sees him as an enemy. How that started? Why that started? We simply don't know now. This is a fact.

You are not arguing for a propsition made, or hinted even, by the characters. You're coming up with your conclussions and believing they should count just as much. This is a theory.

No, we don't know. Yes, it's completely pointless to argue it since we know nothing about their relationship and Robert's reign in general.

 

 

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Why would anyone support them rather than, say, the Tyrells (since the original thread imagined Mace just claiming the kingdom himself)? The logical answer is that legitimacy actually does matter, and that's why Tywin ordered Rhaegar's children killed.

Legitimacy does matter but it's in own context. Legitimacy does not matter more than swords and legitimacy cab be and is bent all the time by simple reality.

 

 

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It's still not up to her, but by then she's heard that her two youngest have been killed by Theon and she's gotten desperate. Releasing Jaime shows how desperate she was.

So, she actually can voice her own opinions but before she didn't care that much...

 

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The Riverlands are a major theater of the war. Beric Dondarrion was fighting Gregor Clegane prior to the profusion of kings, and he continued fighting afterward. Robb Stark proclaims himself king of both the North and Riverlands, and the riverlords accept this because he's acting to defend them against the same raids Beric is also acting against.

Yes, after both Tywin and Robb invade it. The Riverlands are not a theater in the war before the war starts. 

 

 

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Robb didn't say anything about what "terms" the peace would be under. He was fighting in response to what the Lannisters had done to his family, their continued hold over his sisters (or at least one of them), and the aforementioned raiding of the Riverlands. If Stannis takes all them out, most of Robb's motivation goes away. The remaining questions would be whether Stannis insists on punishing Robb for having previously proclaimed himself king and whether the new regime can be trusted enough not to screw over the Starks like previous ones had.

No, he said that peace maybe would have been possible with Lords Stannis. None of those words hint that Stannis recognized Stannis, else he wouldn't be calling him Lord, nor hint that he would have bent the knee. Else he would have talked about the certainty of peace, as easy as bending the knee.

 

 

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The Tyrells actually did come around to supporting the Lannisters, participating militarily in the Blackwater and then later attacking Stannis' remaining strongholds in the south. The Martells don't do any of that, so no it's not the same.

Not all support is based on swords, acknowledgment is too a powerful weapon. The Martells acknowledging Joffrey meant that he was not only recognozed by his family. That's the definition of support.

 

 

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He outlasted Mace Tyrell at Storm's End, which you want to dismiss but no one else does because it's evidence of Stannis' ability to stick through a tough situation. He raised a navy to attack Dragonstone, which you might dismiss because the fleet there was destroyed in a storm, but he did still take it. He smashed the Iron Fleet at Fair Isle, which you presumably count as one victory, but then afterward he also subdued Great Wyk while others were taking Pyke. You might not count it as a military victory, but he also brought a fleet to Sisterton to hang smugglers and force their friend Godric Borrell to keep the Night Lamp on. He nearly took KL before a relief force arrived to flank him, leading to his one defeat. Afterward he smashed Mance Rayder at 20-1 odds (in which Mance was captured, whereas Stannis' escape at the Blackwater made possible his victory at the Wall), then seized Deepwood Motte (against capturing the enemy leader).

  • No one actually claims that Stannis's actions are due to command ability. They all recognized the toughness of  it tho. No
  • He raised a navy to attack Dragonstone and he ended up taking an empty castle because the Targs had already fled. 
  • Stannis did win the loyalty of the Narrow Sea lords and kept him in check, which is indeed impressive.
  • Oh, that's true. My bad, he wins thrice.
  • No, him bringing ships to sisterton to hang smugglers is not a military victorie. It's embarassing to argue that.
  • He was crushed badly at the Blackwater and even before that, the valyrian chain had alreay left him a Blackeye.
  • Stannis runnin away with his fleet is now a prove of victory?
  • He beat refugees. wow.
  • Yet again winning against severely outbumbered foes.

 

So my bad. He wins four times. We'll not dive in on the hows bur that much is true. Not a good resume tho, Yet he has only won twice before the Blackwater.

 

 

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No one believes it odd, because it's not odd. You are the one with the odd belief that all the characters in Stannis' world are wrong about his experience.

It is odd that someone who has only fought a handful of times is called experienced. This is an in world practice so i'm not really bothered by it. 

I simply wanted to prove that the difference between  experienced and inexperienced isn't really that great.

 

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Amusingly enough, it was Melisandre's vision which she attributes to her god which told him if he went to Storm's End then Renly would bring his army which Stannis would then obtain. Another such vision tells him his destiny is to fight in the north, which he does.

Nope, he is told that Renly would be killed and he would get his army,  later Davos convinces him to go North, Stannis is not a godly man, si he would need reassurances for those plans.

This is true even in ASOS, it's true in ACOK.

 

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Stannis does ask Renly to join forces with him as his heir, even though he'd earlier sworn not to treat with him at all while he was calling himself king.

Stannis commands  Renly to yield him and he grants him nothing. And then he assasinates  him when he doesn't comply.

 

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This delay does turn out to prevent a victory at the Blackwater, but he also Melisandre's assurance that he could win the castle (and Edric) without a long siege or even a fight, which turned out to be as correct as her earlier claim about getting an army from Renly.

No shit, she had already killed Renly and ordered Davos to assit to perform the same trick.  

 

 

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When Melisandre, who had made multiple correct predictions seeminly impossible without magical foresight, told him he had to sacrifice Edric he instead insisted on using Edric's "king's blood" via leeches while she reiterated "this is not the way". So you could have had another example of him ignoring the advice of someone, this time someone supernaturally reliable!

There was no premonitions, there were premeditated murders in which Stannis gladly took a part in. And Stannis does oblige once he gets assurances.

 

 

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There was never a Great Council to vote on Aerys vs Rhaegar, so I don't know how we can be confident about their respective numbers.

Yet the war ended with the latter's death.

 

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A reason.

Which he claims in what moment exactly?? Not wanting this or that regency.

 

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It seems entirely plausible that Aerys would simply personally prefer his own son to his grandson,  but Aegon VI was around so briefly we really don't have much about him and the king.

We know he dislike his sister because she smelt dornish and we know he actually tried to incinerate him, along with his mother and sister.

We also know that Aerys liked Viserys.

 

 

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Rhaegar's children were half-Martell, and thus he was using them as leverage over the Martells.

He certainly was not using them as leverage when he decided to burn King's Landing to theground with them in itm while sending away Viserys and his pregnant wife.

 

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The others named were Vaella and Aemon (Aenys Blackfyre's candidacy was removed via murder). Vaella would have been about 11, but in addition to being young she was also female (and thus opposed by the Iron Precedent) and simple-minded.

The others were not really a competition, Aemon could have been, and a very strong one had he actually liked it, but he did not want the throne.

 

 

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I said the Baratheon brothers were the closest substitutes to each other, which I noted by listing their commonalities.

Which would be usefull if one of them was on the throne or if one of them was trying to get another off it. The kids were on the throne and so they were the priority.

 

 

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I think you forgot a clause explaining what that only way would be.

Because their family would only accept it by force.

 

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That would imply there can only be a single decisive victory in a war, which isn't how any military historian thinks. Yandel, for instance, says Maegor achieved a "decisive victory" at the Great Fork over the Faith Militant, even though they remained his "bitterest enemy for all of his reign" and he continued fighting until he died with enemies closing in around him.

They were broken after the fact.

 

 

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Magic isn't actually required for those counterfactuals in which Stannis proceeds directly to KL with the armies of the Stormlands. Stannis nearly took KL without Melisandre, so those forces (unbloodied by any battle between Stannis & Renly) would have been sufficient and Renly could have achieved the primary goal you ascribe to him of getting rid of Cersei.

Renly has said armies and those of the Reach, thus he is far better suited to achieve his plans if he stick to his course rather than bending to Stannis. That without saying that the Tyrells become a very dangerous wildcard that can bite them in the ass, just as it happened to Stannis. That without the fact that the only reason Stannis was ever that threat was because Tywin was heading West and couldn't know that Storm's End would fall so soon, if Tywin knows that the brothers have allied, he goes straight to KL and then the Stormlands alone are certainly not sufficient.

Yet and just for the sake of arguing, if Renly and Stannis can take KL and get rid of Cersei with 25k men it stands to reason that Renly can too take KL and get rid of Cersei with 4 times those numbers. Thus Renly does not need Stannis and the only thing he gains by subduing someone who resents him and does not like him at all is fulfill a weird sense of obedience.

 

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The question is when they would get there. If they could have gotten there earlier, they would have. After all, men behind walls are more more than ones outside them.

Why is that the question?? Stannis taking KL doesn't mean he wins by default. While Tommen lives, the Tyrell-Lannister alliance is going to wipe him out.

 

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Mance didn't smash Stannis with a far larger army.

Army of refugees.  I wouldn't count them as one would westerosi.

 

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How does marrying Margaery prohibit any action on his part other than marrying someone else? I think rather it is the Tyrells who are bound to him after that marriage (and Loras swearing himself into the Rainbow Guard).

Because the marriage has not been consumated and because they swore to a anointed king. If Renly can forgo his vows against the vassalss that swore to him, certainly it goes both ways.

The Rainbow Guard is too a guard for the king, not for the lord of Storm's End.

The marriage and the annointment  means a point of no return, so why would he?

 

 

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First off, primogeniture means the oldest brother always inherits the throne ahead of the younger brother and the older brother never owes fealty to the younger. Renly's idea of chucking that just means anybody could declare himself king even after Renly has taken the throne and the only question would be whether they can kill Renly. Secondly, Stannis is a more experienced commander and would have better odds against the Lannisters commanding their combined forces.

  1. Yes and neither he nor his vassals care enough about Stannis  for that to be a reason for them to heed.
  2. It doesn't mean that. That's just the definition of a slippery slope.  An apocalyptic scenario some fans like to pretend it's realistic.
  3. Renly has veterans in his army, Randyll Tarly is widely regarded as the best in the Realm. So, he doesn't really need him anyway.
  4. Renly believes that  his numbers will carry the day and is expecting for both the Starks and Lannisters to bleed themselves out. He doesn't need Stannis, nor he believes he does.

 

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He gains the guaranteed elimination of Cersei, which you claim is his actual priority!

He already had that., or as much certainty as anyone can ask in this kind of game. I mean, Renly is indeed an arrogant young fellow but this idea that the only way Renly had to win was allying with Stannis borders hubris.

 

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Indeed he does, living out the fantasy he had since childhood: "The crown will suit me, as it never suited Robert and would not suit Stannis. I have it in me to be a great king, strong yet generous, clever, just, diligent, loyal to my friends and terrible to my enemies, yet capable of forgiveness, patient"
Contrast with Stannis, who only speaks of it as his duty which he never asked for.

I'm sorry, i'm lost at the part in which Renly  or anyone for that matter says that he wanted to be king since childhood. 

And come on, Stannis lies a lot, to himself and to others, Renly is honest, be it fear or power grabbing. Stannis saying that he the crown is a duty he never asked for is a lie. He did ask for it and he does want it.

 

 

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The kingdom would be controlled by whoever controlled Joffrey. Renly's swords would continue to do that even as Ned remained nominally in control. And if Renly ever decided he didn't want Ned as Lord Protector (since they didn't see eye to eye on a number of things), he would just need to ensure it was his swords specifically rather than Ned's (with the bannermen of the North far from KL) in control of Joffrey.

The kingdom would be controlled by whoever controlled the king and those swords were Renly's and Ned's. So Ned's swords would be not only too controlling the King too but he was also nominally the one in control, never underestimate nominally power, then Ned is indeed in total control and Renly is indeed handing the Realm over to Ned.

The rest is just a slippery slope scenario. What happens we see is Renly intending to hand the Realm over to Ned.

As dear  Stannis says, if  is a word for fools, you can't poiny out to a nunber of apocalyptic scenarios. That doesn't change what indeed did happen. Btw, where does it say that Renly's swords would remain to do that even after Ned ascecnds as regent?

 

 

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"I do not beg. Of anyone. Mind you remember that, woman" actually does sound like a rebuke. And he continues insisting that he needs to obtain swords rather than relying on her faith. What actually determines his decision is hearing about Melisandre's vision.

Sure, it sounds like does not going to beg to anyone, It does sound like him actually agreeing with her and certainly Selyse thinks the same.

He already determines his decision about not begging.

 

 

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Renly puts on such competitions and names Brienne to his Rainbow Guard as the result of that. Catelyn observes that and dubs them the knights of summer after thinking "It is all a game to them still, a tourney writ large".

Nope, Renly puts competitions to raise morale and Cat misinterpret it as such and even then, Cat talks about their behaviour during the dinner. Unblooded, young and naive and hopeful.

 

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I don't recall her saying anything about growing. She said that she pities them because winter is coming and they aren't taking things seriously. Some of them are just going to die rather than grow.

 

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Lord Rowan beside her did not join the merriment. “They are all so young,” he said. It was true. The Knight of Flowers could not have reached his second name day when Robert slew Prince Rhaegar on the Trident. Few of the others were very much older. They had been babes during the Sack of King’s Landing, and no more than boys when Balon Greyjoy raised the Iron Islands in rebellion. They are still unblooded, Catelyn thought as she watched Lord Bryce goad Ser Robar into juggling a brace of daggers. It is all a game to them still, a tourney writ large, and all they see is the chance for glory and honor and spoils. They are boys drunk on song and story, and like all boys, they think themselves immortal. “War will make them old,” Catelyn said, “as it did us.” She had been a girl when Robert and Ned and Jon Arryn raised their banners against Aerys Targaryen, a woman by the time the fighting was done. “I pity them.” “Why?” Lord Rowan asked her. “Look at them. They’re young and strong, full of life and laughter. And lust, aye, more lust than they know what to do with. There will be many a bastard bred this night, I promise you. Why pity?” “Because it will not last,” Catelyn answered, sadly. “Because they are the knights of summer, and winter is coming.”

 

 

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That's him chiding Selyse for bringing up Renly's death. We don't hear the specifics for how Renly could actually die because Cressen leaves. The closest thing to any specification is Stannis' line about sullying Lightbringer (which he acquired after hearing of Melisandre's vision and deciding to go with that).

 That's a rather odd way of chiding, then again, Stannis is always doing rather odd things.

Stannis genuily asks how Renly can die and how Renly can be killed surrounded by his men.

 

 

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I'm glad you agree and would like to note that the app confirms she was doing that with the leeches. She knew the ritual wasn't actually doing anything, she was just doing it to convince Stannis since she knew what would actually happen.

Fair enough.

 

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She only needed special access for Penrose because Storm's End was protected by spells. She explicitly distinguished that case from Renly.

She needed relative access. Renly was near enough, he is not killed at Dragonstone,  he is killed in Storm's End, she needed to be nearer Penrose.

 

 

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She doesn't have to. And if she had told Stannis right away she had this power he would have wanted to use it specifically for his political goals which she doesn't actually care about. Limiting her statements to be about seeing specific people dead limits Stannis' options to those she has decided for him.

  • Yeah she does, Stannis is not a believer and he needs a reason to throw his meagre to a suicide mission.
  • Stannis actually uses her specifically for his political goals!!! 

 

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With Stannis specifically. If she's extremely old than she may have done something like that years ago, but we know it drains the life force of the other person. Stannis doesn't start out drained, there doesn't seem to be anyone he's assassinated before, and people talk as if Stannis only recently took up with Mel.

She doesn't need to have done it with Stannis, she needs to simply tell him about it and explain him it's possible.  Perhaps perfoming it with another person.

 

 

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They don't actually use a word like "assassination". Nothing in the runup is actually inconsistent with the idea of him being killed in battle via Lightbringer as Stannis alludes to.

Nope, Cressen does and he's right, just as Davos says as much and he's also right. Stannis doesn't say that Penrose is going to be killed... is Penrose not to be assasinated?

Stannis never alludes to kill him with Lghtbringer...

 

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If there's no need for Stannis to wake up, then there's no need to assign anyone the task of waking him up. It was assigned because, as Stannis said, he knew Renly was attacking at dawn (as he had specifically told Renly to, knowing as Randyll did how that advantaged his position).

Why?? The best way to cover your tracks is to actually not giving anyone doubts about your behaviour. In fact it is because Davos suspects Stannis's behaviour that we can tell he's not telling the whole truth.

 

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Then I hope you can agree there is just the appearance of normalcy. There's no indication that there will be something other than a battle.

Sure which i would believe if i hadn't read the prologue, or Davos's chapters.

 

 

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He tells Renly that he will destroy him if there is a battle, and Renly bending the knee was the explicit alternative to Stannis sullying Lightbringer with his brother's blood. So he's open about his willingness to be a kinslayer, and Renly is as well in somewhat less explicit terms.

Even you would understand that killing someone in battle is different than murdering him in his tent.

 

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He didn't hire a hitman, he had sex with Melisandre (something he continues to do even after she stops producing shadows). And Melisandre isn't someone he hired, she instead sought him out for her own prophetic reasons which aren't the same as Stannis'.

He had sex with Melisandre knowing that she would birth a shadow to kill Renly, just as he did with Penrose.

That means Stannis is the culprit.

 

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We only know that first bit, in the sense that a child is "conceived" by its father. We don't even see the shadow being "guided" into the tent from outside, instead it just stops syncing up with Renly. Melisandre is a shadowbinder, it's her magic which creates the shadows. She hits on both Davos & Jon Snow at points, and this isn't because she's going to rely on either of them to do any of those things other than paternal conception. She's taking their lifeforce to do with what she will.

Except that Stannis is guiding him in his sleep. Otherwise i'd agree.

 

 

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We get him being tormented by dreams. And dreams is how he perceives them.

And we get Davos explictly thinking that he doesn't believe him.

 

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He says "I know that now", implying he didn't know it earlier.

After he had killed him. His words hold like zero value but to each.

 

 

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Stannis isn't talking about Edric's blood at that point, but instead how he's "proof" of Stannis' incest claims. Melisandre starts demanding Edric's blood after Blackwater, and Stannis is disinclined to sacrifice him hence using leeches instead.

He could have had him as proof, Stannis wants him just as much.

 

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He doesn't need Storm's End at all to go to KL (as you note Davos knows). There's just green boys and old men there. Penrose has to die because Melisandre has already decided on it (to obtain Edric Storm), and after her earlier prophecy was vindicated Stannis is going to do as she says. And from his POV there's little reason not to since he gains a nigh-impregnable castle and "proof" at the mere cost of one day and none of his own men. We know that one day will make a big difference, but Stannis didn't get to read those chapters.

He needs Storm's End to fall as he doesn't want people believing he was defeated and he still wants Edric. As Davos points, Stannis had men that would beat Penrose, he literally chooses to murder him.

So Stannis is a zealot and stupid unable to see simple truths. That's a new one.

 

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Not that it is useless, but that it did serve him like any other sword at that specific battle (which he lost). And he can generalize from it failing to guarantee a victory at that battle to scoffing at it being vital to the fate of humanity.

But he does argue that. He doesn't believe in the sword's power.

 

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There was never any question for Stannis as to whether he was going to kill Cersei and her children. Robb Stark would want to do the same. For Robb Stark it would be personal, whereas part of the point of Stannis' character is the idea of impersonal justice without mercy (that last bit distinguishes him from Ned Stark). Whenn Stannis removed Davos' fingers, that wasn't vengeance but justice (as Stannis sees it). Stannis proclaims that "Every man shall reap what he has sown, from the highest lord to the lowest gutter rat", and this is not a matter of those people personally wronging him. Instead they wrong the kingdom (his political philosophy is anachronistically centralist for someone in a feudal society). And Stannis must punish them not because it will satisfy a need for vengeance on his part, but because it's his duty and he believes all must do their duty. And he also thinks that since the North is sworn to the Seven Kingdoms the Starks have a duty to remain in it, which he's not going to permit them to shirk merely because they have some justified grievances with those currently on the throne.

Nor was he needed to answer that. He simply needed to ask whether he wanted to avenge Ned or not and why.

Now, you can go on and on but the truth is. Stannis doesn't say, "i won't avenge Ned Stark,  i will do him justice". He doesn't say "I won't avenge Ned Stark because i don't want Robb to steak half my kingdom".

Stannis states that Ned is nothing to him, that he doesn't feel like doing it and then he goes on a yet another petty rant about Ned and Robert. Stannis response is tied to how he feels about Robert and Ned, not his concept of justice, not Robb, not the current war nothing. Simply that he resented him from getting Robert's love.

 

 

 

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I don't follow the logic about how Stannis knowing these two for different amounts of time results in that. Instead Cressen suggests allying with Robb to get vengeance, whereas Davos' question is why Stannis is pursuing the throne. Those are two different questions rather than simply two different people.

It has little to do with knowing them with differents amount of time. Is the level of trust he has with them, Stannis tells things to Cressen that he doesn't repeat to Davos, or anyone for that matter. 

Cressen suggests helping Robb to get vengeance and Davos certainly don't bring Ned up. 

 

 

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If an underling stops trying to argue with their boss, it doesn't mean the boss is correct.

Why would Tarly stop then?? He's not the one who shuts his mouth to others.

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58 minutes ago, frenin said:

We don't even know who married Stannis, for all we knoe both him and Robert were following an earlier arrangement made by Steffon.

Frankly, I think we can almost be certain Robert played little role in arranging that marriage.  Otherwise Stannis would have complained about in one of his appearances.

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On 4/9/2021 at 4:36 PM, frenin said:

We don't even know who married Stannis, for all we knoe both him and Robert were following an earlier arrangement made by Steffon.

The marriage was in 286 or 287, when Stannis was around 22 or older. Steffon died in 278 after trying to find a bride for Rhaegar. It doesn't appear any betrothal was arranged for Robert, who instead picked Lyanna out for himself, nor was there anything for Renly (who was admittedly just a baby at the time). The marriages after Robert's rebellion were shaped by the politics of it, not bound to political alliances precedig it (when Steffon Baratheon was one of the people most trusted by Aerys).

The Handship is actually both.


Ned didn't want it. Robert says to Ned "If I wanted to honor you, I'd let you retire. I am planning to make you run the kingdom and fight the wars while I eat and drink and wench myself into an early grave." He also says "I bedded a fishmaid once who told me the lowborn have a choicer way to put it. The king eats, they say, and the Hand takes the shit."

Yes, that's a point of his favor.


Why is it a point in his favor when we know of nobles explicitly favoring older candidates for the throne, and the entire idea of primogeniture is to favor the oldest?

I'm sorry i'm not impressed by your two very exceptions.


Those "exceptions" are where people were explicitly making a choice for a king rather than succession just proceeding normally. Edric is a bastard, so the throne would not normally go to him.

Roose Bolton is the definition of a psychopath, i don't really believe he is the go to in this case yet suit yourself.


I don't mean to say that it's normal to be fine with your older child murdering their younger half-siblings. But a distaste for a young heir requiring a regency IS normal.

Bastards are disfavored, legitimized bastards not so much. as the multiple Blackfyre Rebellions would attest.


The Blackfyres were never supported by any of the Lords Paramount, and they lost every rebellion. And the Blackfyre argument was that Daeron II was a "falseborn" bastard! The result was bastards being even more distrusted (even Daemon II's supporters dismissed the legitimized Bittersteel as a bastard).

Robert has already picked a regent for his heir and it's up to said regent to choose.


After the death of Jaehaera, Aegon III didn't simply have his marriage dictated to him. He was able to pick Daenaera.

They were on Dragonstone precisely because of Stannis. As in Stannis could have dispatched them if he ever wanted to do so, he didn't want to.


I don't see the relevance. Since they weren't in KL with Stannis, we can't expect them to say anything about Stannis' mindset when he was in KL. The one person we know Stannis confided in near the end of his time there was Jon Arryn.

So, Ned actually does not believe the Lannisters are going to kill him even after he tells them that he knows their secret.


Ned thinks that if he tells Robert, Robert will definitely try to kill them. We know Cersei also thinks Robert is more likely to believe Ned than his brothers. Stannis said he wen to Jon Arryn because Robert would be unlikely to believe him and more likely to believe his Hand. Stannis cannot rely on the same option Ned did, hence flight being more reasonable for him.

Especially not when Stannis never shows being afraid for his life,  never says he is afreaid for his live, never hints he's afraid for his life.


By the time we get to see him he's safe on Dragonstone, which he's locked down sufficiently that even Varys isn't getting reports back.

I don't know what this has to do you with what i said. So i'll repeat myself. [...] That both Stannis and Ned believed Arryn was killed by her doesn't mean that they believed Cersei was after them


Stannis has a different reason for believing it than Ned. When Jon died, Stannis concluded Cersei arranged it to prevent Jon from revealing the incest (Ned comes to the same conclusion). In order for that to happen, she must have been aware that Jon was aware of the incest. Jon had heard about it via Stannis, so if someone was spying on Jon (or Stannis) during his investigation they probably would have observed him investigating alongside Stannis (just as Ned discovers in his own investigation). Ned only discovers "the secret Jon Arryn died for" near the end of his tenure. Once Cersei knows that he knows, she actually does try to threaten him with her "wrath" saying "you win or you die", which doesn't intimidate Ned because he's expecting Robert to arrive soon.

I think that much is clear but her goons are more inactive once she's not there and her actions can be carried out far more easily when she's there.


I would presume she would try to arrange things with her goons when they wre all in the same place, but in Stannis' eyes she just established an M.O of leaving town and having her enemy killed while she's away.

Besides,Stannis being Hand doesn't magically make him immune to being assasinated.


If Stannis arrests Cersei for incest & Jon's assassination and then he suddenly dies, it's going to look like an assassination rather than natural causes and Robert is unlikely to reverse Stannis' order.

Any member of the Coucil can act with the powers of the King as long as the King is bestowing him that power


Being named Hand IS bestowing with that power. Ned seems to think as Hand he's just the King's friend & right-hand man, but Tyrion actually understands the power of the office.

Stannis wouldn't have any more power to act against Cersei as Hand that he would have as Master of Ships, he would have to go through Robert first anyway.


The Hand can simply give orders and people obey them because the Hand speaks with the voice of the king.

Fear is always a powerful factor that is usually brought up, not hidden under the mat and never talked about it never again.


By the time we see him he's beyond the reach of Cersei's agents.

What i can't do is assuming what he was feeling, if i don't have any clue, which is exactly what you're doing.


I'm reaching a conclusion using Ned's logic and Stannis' knowledge at the time.

Well, his evidence is exactly the fantasy version of Mendelian genetics. It's the exact evidence that makes Ned understand the truth.


We never hear of Stannis reading that book. It was just Jon Arryn.

Stannis doesn't care whether Ned lives or dies, so yes, he doesn't  lose anything.


Ned actually discovered the truth and nearly got rid of Cersei, which would have worked out very well for Stannis. Stannis doesn't have to personally like him to take into account how Ned as Hand affects his odds.

And even you have understood that Stannis is only the heir if Robert wants him to be by this point, so i'll simply ignore this bit.


This isn't the Roman empire where succesors are chosen & adopted. This is a system of primogeniture where the first son inherits, and if he dies without heirs it moves to the second son. The Dance of the Dragons was fought when the candidate of traditional succession law claimed the crown ahead of the one the king explicitly chose, and Stannis regards the latter as a traitor while maesters say an "iron precedent" was established in favor of the former. Stannis says it would be suspiciously convenient for him to claim incest... because it would be, which is the line the Lannisters take after he makes that accusation.

Stannis wanted Robert to be killed without having the chance to ruling (properly) over his succesion. Stannis wanted to be king by that point.


How does telling Jon Arryn accomplish that? And are we supposed to believe that of the guy fixated on duty, of whom GRRM says he's the one king righteous enough to act on behalf of the realm against an external threat rather than just focusing on his own position?

Ned was already predisposed against the Lannisters by then and Lysa telling his sister about the Lannisters serves just as much.


Serves just as much for what and as what?

Because he didn't want Robert by then.


He didn't want Robert dead?

Robert ignoring Stannis, yet again, for Ned, yet again, was the straw that broke the camel's back. A point of no return if you will.


Robert had already chosen Jon Arryn over Stannis as Hand before. This just doesn't seem different enough, nor was it a personal enough matter to make sense as the straw that breaks the camel's back. I'm trying to interpret characters through a consistent lens where they will tend to behave similarly under similar situations, and a reason must be given for behaving differently. Peering inside the character to deduce there's some limit that an individually unremarkable incident could trip just requires you to have more knowledge of them than you actually have as it is.

He decided to leave Robert to his fate, one he knew was almost certainly death


Why would he expect that? Joffrey was still set to inherit, so there wasn't a pressing need. And if Ned discovers the truth, the Lannisters can be purged before they can kill Robert. Tywin will fight back, seeing as the mere arrest of Tyrion prompted aggression, but he'll have a tough time killing Robert.

he stole his fleet


Robert doesn't even seem to mind that Stannis took it to Dragonstone.

He didn't convice Jon Arryn, he convinced him to  investigate it, since at that point Stannis only had suspicious


Fair enough. The book seems to have tipped things for Jon, and he sought that out himself rather than getting it from Stannis.

the time and resources required to explain or prove the viability of a theory are certainly less than the time required to determine whether it's viable or not.


What is the relevant difference between explaining/proving and determining viability?

Stannis could have taken the book had he ever wanted to and he did it.


He did what?

Because he belives he's being mistreated and neglected yet another time and he's sick of it.


Stannis has always thought he was neglected, but he always does what Robert asks of him anyway ("Great or small, we must do our duty"). This is not some super-personal matter that he would treat differently.

Sure but Joffrey is a bastard and the Lannisters are despised enough for Stannis to sway doubters


Stannis isn't especially well-liked, so he can hardly claim much of an advantage over the Lannisters if there's a succession crisis. The Lannisters will hold KL while he holds Dragonstone, just like the Greens vs the Blacks in the Dance... but he doesn't have any dragons, nor did Robert name him ahead of Joffrey since Robert didn't know about the incest.

Unless Robert were to spontaneously combust upon hearing the news and killing Cersei and the kids, that idea doesn't hold any water


Ned actually does think Robert will kill Cersei & the kids, so I'm not sure what you're arguing here.

Because people were stumbling on the secret


We hear Jaime arguing with Cersei about this, as he wasn't afraid while she was. Relevant info we have now that Stannis didn't is that Cersei wasn't actually behind Jon Arryn's assassination. That was not something going according to plan for her, it was an unexpected event she's scrambling to react to.

Ned had no reaso whatsoever to discover the twincest


Ned did discover it, by retracing Jon Arryn's steps. With a particularly suspicious bit being Jon's interactions with Stannis.

it took twelve years and LF for Stannis to start suspecting something was aloof


Stannis & LF hate each other. They were never in cahoots.

We know that Stannis was not afraid for his life, that's the pre requisite.


No, we don't "know" that. You are simply claiming that based on an absence of evidence, even though you acknowledge we can't actually expect to know most of what Stannis has thought & felt.

The Small Council didn't know or had any reason to believe that Robert's days were numbered, Stannis did.


Pycelle also thought Cersei was behind Jon's poisoning because of the incest. Varys & LF knew about the incest, with the latter actually responsible for said poisoning. Renly is who we've argued about. Varys actually told Ned that Cersei was trying to get Robert killed in the melee.

They simply assume Stannis was throwing a fit and would return within time,


I actually do think that was part of what was going on. Stannis wanted Robert to seek his help.

gestures to the gallery


What?

Stannis calls Robert a curse


I'm not sure what you're referring to. Selyse claims that her marriage bed was cursed by Robert fathering Edric Storm there, which isn't the same as saying Robert himself was a curse. Stannis responds with a "Perhaps" then saying it doesn't matter.

When arguing whether Ned should  go to King's Landing or not


After Ned has already been asked to serve as Hand, there is the argument where Luwin says "The Hand of the King has great power, my lord. Power to find the truth of Lord Arryn's death, to bring his killers to the king's justice. Power to protect Lady Arryn and her son, if the worst be true." But of course you don't think Stannis would have had any more power if he had been named Hand.

He doesn't believe Jon Snow as one of her more ravenous enemies, certainly not like Arryn, Ned or Tyrion


Arryn was "ravenous"?

She doesn't believe Bronn is and she also plots to kill him.


She thinks Bronn is still an agent of Tyrion's.

We know that Renly fears Cersei and we know that Cersei sees him as an enemy.


When Robert dies Renly is immediately angling to strike to seize Joffrey and thereby have power over the kingdom. He figures Cersei is thinking along the same lines but didn't have enough men on hand to overpower Renly's & Ned's. Prior to Robert's death there was no regency to violently seize, nor would there be if Joffrey had lived into adulthood. If he had stuck around, his men added to Ned's could have prevented anything prior to the Lannisters bringing in enough reinforcements for a coup, but then he'd be in the path of said reinforcements and he hasn't gotten Ned's ok on using his own forces to control Joffrey. And prior to that he hadn't given any indication of being afraid of Cersei. He's rather insouciant about mocking Joffrey in front of her. Perhaps in your view he was confident enough in his plan to replace Cersei that he expected her to be gone soon, and for enough time to have passed for Joffrey not to hold it against him.

No, he said that peace maybe would have been possible with Lords Stannis. None of those words hint that Stannis recognized Stannis, else he wouldn't be calling him Lord


I assume you mean "Robb recognized Stannis", and Stannis didn't manage to seize KL so there wouldn't be any point in Robb calling him "king" then.

nor hint that he would have bent the knee


I'm not sure what version of that peace you have in mind. After Renly's assassination Brienne says to Catelyn "you'd never make a peace with Stannis, would you? Bend the knee?" to which Cat just replies she doesn't know.

The Martells acknowledging Joffrey meant that he was not only recognozed by his family.


Joffrey was acknowledged by other houses prior to the Martells. All of KL other than those brought in by Ned had recognized him, along with houses of the mainland crownlands.

Stannis runnin away with his fleet is now a prove of victory?


Robert also had one defeat (in his case it was before rather than after enemy reinforcements arrived), but since he managed to escape he was ultimately able to win the war. Being able to keep your forces orderly enough during a defeat to get away is indeed a test for a commander, though of course it's not nearly as good as a victory.

He beat refugees. wow


It was a force which had attacked the Wall and was expected to break through before Stannis arrived. The Roman empire was also invaded by barbarian tribes displaced by others far away, but nobody used the term "refugee" to describe them back then either.

It is odd that someone who has only fought a handful of times is called experienced. This is an in world practice so i'm not really bothered by it.


One of the advantages the Wehrmacht had early in WW2 was that they had experience invading Poland. You might say "Just conquering Poland was enough when Stalin was seizing the other half of the country?". But it made a big difference against the French (who on paper had a very powerful army). One of the reasons Robb was able to destroy the new force raised in the Westerlands is that those troops were all green.

There was no premonitions


Melisandre's visions in the flames are repeatedly discussed. And it's not just code for "I know because I'm going to kill them", as Stannis gets to see such visions himself, and in Melisandre's POV we see she really does have visions she believes in (although what she says about them can be unreliable).

Yet the war ended with the latter's death.


No it didn't. Ned had to race Tywin to KL, and Aerys was ordering Jaime to behead Tywin rather than letting him take the city.

Which he claims in what moment exactly??


The World of Ice and Fire just mentions that Viserys was the new heir after Rhaegar died, but it's not Aerys' Table Talk. We know that others have explicitly said long regencies are to be avoided, and Aerys' choice is the one consistent with view.

We know he dislike his sister because she smelt dornish


She was also said to resemble her mother more, whereas Aegon resembled his father. Not that Aerys liked him either, admittedly, but he would at least look Valyrian rather than Dornish.

we know he actually tried to incinerate him, along with his mother and sister


To be fair, Aerys was doing unto others as he was doing unto himself :)

He certainly was not using them as leverage when he decided to burn King's Landing to theground with them in itm while sending away Viserys and his pregnant wife.


Sending Viserys away was a separate decision from the one to burn the city down. At that time he was still hoping Tywin would stop Robert despite everything Aerys had done to him. If there had actually been a siege, I think Aerys would have been flinging wildfire at Robert's forces outside.

The others were not really a competition


And their age contributed to that. Legally speaking, Maegor was clearly ahead of Aegon.

Which would be usefull if one of them was on the throne or if one of them was trying to get another off it. The kids were on the throne and so they were the priority.


Renly didn't act like it was a priority to get them off it. He was wasting time while Robb fought up until Stannis besieged Storm's End. This discussion goes back to Renly's stance on the incest claim. LF invented the rumor about Patchface & Shireen to counter that claim, and Renly echoes just that propaganda against Stannis after Stannis brings up the incest. Renly isn't saying that because he actually believes the rumor, but instead for the same reason the Lannisters do. He's got a cynical stance on politics (presumably part of why he & LF get along) and his moves are calculated for political imagery. That's why I don't take seriously his scoffing at the incest claim.

Renly has said armies and those of the Reach, thus he is far better suited to achieve his plans if he stick to his course rather than bending to Stannis. That without saying that the Tyrells become a very dangerous wildcard that can bite them in the ass, just as it happened to Stannis.


Is Mace Tyrell really going to "bite them in the ass" when Renly has Loras with him and Margaery still married to him?

Yet and just for the sake of arguing, if Renly and Stannis can take KL and get rid of Cersei with 25k men it stands to reason that Renly can too take KL and get rid of Cersei with 4 times those numbers.


It's not a simple matter of arithmetic. Robert & Stannis have both beaten opponents with larger numbers. Stannis has a lot of ships, which is how he's able to get to KL quickly, and the quicker KL is attacked (Stannis doesn't have to wait a fortnight for Penrose to consider his offer) the less time Tyrion has to prepare. Tyrion had a particular fear of that navy attacking KL at the same time as Renly's army, and he expressed thanks to the gods that Penrose delayed Stannis while Tyrion was able to continue working on his chain. With this shortened time frame, LF also has less time to go to the Tyrells (a longer trip than Stannis needs to get to KL) to negotiate anything. GRRM set things up so Stannis could be defeated in the nick of time.

Thus Renly does not need Stannis and the only thing he gains by subduing someone who resents him and does not like him at all is fulfill a weird sense of obedience.


That "weird sense of obedience" is to the system of primogeniture, which their aristocratic society is based on. And if Renly doesn't think Stannis is likely to have a son, then Renly becomes king anyway.

Stannis taking KL doesn't mean he wins by default.


Robb seemed to think so.

While Tommen lives, the Tyrell-Lannister alliance is going to wipe him out.


He'll have a large army behind the walls of the city, a navy so the city can't be cut off, and Robb's forces attacking the Lannisters' rear. Against that they'd have a child they can proclaim king (not yet married to Margaery of course and assuming Stannis hasn't seized the rest of the Crownlands before Tywin arrives) while Stannis on the throne denounces him as a bastard and puts Cersei on trial for incest & murder. Furthermore, if Stannis takes KL and has Sansa, then Catelyn is hardly going to release Jaime in a desperate attempt to get her back.

Army of refugees.  I wouldn't count them as one would westerosi.


It was an army expected to break through the Wall, and which Tywin hoped would wreak havoc throughout the North.

Because the marriage has not been consumated


Didn't you disagree with me when I said that?

and because they swore to a anointed king


There were lots of people who had sworn vows to Torrhen Stark, but those didn't go away when he bent the knee.

If Renly can forgo his vows against the vassalss that swore to him


Which vow is he breaking? Is he letting Stannis execute them without trial?

It doesn't mean that. That's just the definition of a slippery slope.  An apocalyptic scenario some fans like to pretend it's realistic.


It actually happened in ancient Rome. It was called praetorianism. Ancient Rome doesn't exist in Westeros, so Renly hasn't heard of it, but even if it did Renly doesn't care for books unless they're naughty picture books.

Renly has veterans in his army, Randyll Tarly is widely regarded as the best in the Realm. So, he doesn't really need him anyway.


That's true... but Renly rejects his argument against attacking at dawn, and gives the van to Loras Tyrell instead of Randyll.

Renly believes that  his numbers will carry the day and is expecting for both the Starks and Lannisters to bleed themselves out.


Earlier he was counting Stannis' forces as part of his own, was assuming the Martells would support him, that Selmy would joing his Rainbow Guard...

this idea that the only way Renly had to win was allying with Stannis borders hubris


I don't claim it was "the only way". If he had Robb had coordinated their forces that was another possibility. I am saying that the reason Renly rejects Stannis' offer is that he wanted to be king, just as he had since he was a child. Renly's motivation throughout has been advancement for him & the Tyrells, not fear of Cersei. Smash his insistence that he'd be the better king against Stannis' that he's the king by rights and the Lannisters have enough time to stay in power.

Stannis saying that he the crown is a duty he never asked for is a lie. He did ask for it and he does want it.


He didn't ask for the crown. When Robert was proclaimed king Stannis accepted that and served Robert. He claims the crown because Cersei's children are bastards born of incest, which we know to be true as she admitted it. Catelyn agrees that's the legal implication.

Btw, where does it say that Renly's swords would remain to do that even after Ned ascecnds as regent?


"We must get Joffrey away from his mother and take him in hand [...] We should seize Myrcella and Tommen as well. Once we have her children, Cersei will not dare oppose us."
Renly portrays it as both him & Ned controlling Cersei's children and thus having power.

Sure, it sounds like does not going to beg to anyone


Does Stannis consider a marriage alliance with Lysa to be begging? Later Selyse says "How he might win half a kingdom if he goes to the Starks on his knees and sells our daughter to Lysa Arryn?" The former bit is portrayed as begging, the latter as selling. And Stannis does give more consideration to the latter than the former.

Nope, Renly puts competitions to raise morale and Cat misinterpret it as such


What is her misinterpretation?

That's a rather odd way of chiding


It's consistent with how he talks to her earlier. She says he already has all he needs because of the Lord of Light supports him, and he pragmatically says he needs swords rather than blessings and then sarcastically asks if she can provide him an army. When she says the house she was born into will support Stannis, he says they don't have enough swords and he doesn't share her faith in her family. So then when she says he will attain the swords sworn to Renly if Renly dies, he points out how unlikely that is to happen. It's only when Selyse informs him that Melisandre actually saw it in the flames that he embraces that option.

She needed relative access. Renly was near enough, he is not killed at Dragonstone,  he is killed in Storm's End, she needed to be nearer Penrose.


She didn't say anything about a requirement to be "near" a target (denying that she needed to be brought to Renly), just that Storm's End was protected by spells.

Yeah she does, Stannis is not a believer and he needs a reason to throw his meagre to a suicide mission.


Stannis doesn't believe in her religion, but he does believe she has the ability to see things in the flames. That's what Selyse tells Stannis about that gets him to go down that route (and we also hear of him seeing a vision in the flames himself). And if he thinks Melisandre is telling the truth about Renly dying and him obtaining Renly's army, then it's not a suicide mission.

Stannis actually uses her specifically for his political goals!!!


That is what he's trying to do, but Melisandre is hardly enslaved by him like Euron's warlocks. She has the discretion to choose what to tell him so as to ensure her agenda is served.

She doesn't need to have done it with Stannis, she needs to simply tell him about it and explain him it's possible.  Perhaps perfoming it with another person.


That would then give Stannis the leverage to order her to make assassins on command to fulfill Stannis' political goals. That's not what Melisandre wants. She wants Stannis to perform sacrifices a la Azor Ahai, eventually sacrificing even that which he loves most to end the Long Night. I mentioned that Melisandre offers to sleep with Davos & Jon to make more shadows. We certainly don't hear of Stannis ordering any men to sleep with her. She's maintaining her own control over that.

Nope, Cressen does


He uses the word "fratricide", and we know that kinslaying includes killing people in battle (as Bloodraven did, as well as Bael the Bard's Stark son but NOT Bael himself).

Stannis doesn't say that Penrose is going to be killed... is Penrose not to be assasinated?


Unlike with Renly, Stannis explicitly says Penrose will die outside of combat. He attributes this knowledge to Melisandre. Also unlike with Renly, he doesn't tell his men to prepare to attack the next day. He doesn't even select a champion for single combat.

Why?? The best way to cover your tracks is to actually not giving anyone doubts about your behaviour.


Did he need to insist on dawn as the time of the attack and thereby risk Renly rejecting the idea out of hand? Or did specify that because he actually thought that would be to the advantage of his forces in the coming battle?

Sure which i would believe if i hadn't read the prologue, or Davos's chapters


Does the prologue or that first Davos chapter say there won't be a battle?

Even you would understand that killing someone in battle is different than murdering him in his tent.


Eddard Stark & Barristan Selmy would certainly consider assassination less honorable. But both get you the label of kinslayer per Bloodraven's example. Which is why Stannis talks about wanting to avoid sullying Lightbringer with his brother's blood.

He had sex with Melisandre knowing that she would birth a shadow to kill Renly, just as he did with Penrose.


Stannis has sex with her for prurient reasons, which we know from her POV after Stannis is no longer able to make any shadows.

Except that Stannis is guiding him in his sleep


Was Melisandre relying on Davos or Jon to "guide" her shadows in their sleep? She tells Davos he could serve his king's cause by coming to her chambers where she would give Davos pleasure and she would make another.

He could have had him as proof, Stannis wants him just as much.


I don't think I understand what you're getting at. At the time when Stannis is demanding Edric from Storm's End, the only motivation mentioned in the book is as "proof". The notion of sacrificing Edric comes later, and Stannis disagrees with Melisandre about it until her prediction of three dead kings for three leeches (which we know was a trick) turns out to be true.

As Davos points, Stannis had men that would beat Penrose, he literally chooses to murder him.


Stannis states that the proposed trial by combat would just be a trick, whereas Davos thinks Penrose is seeking a dignified way to die. Stannis goes with Melisandre's plan, which requires no risk at all to him.

So Stannis is a zealot and stupid unable to see simple truths. That's a new one.


The "simple truth" he should have seen was that one day would be the difference between victory and defeat? I don't think Tyrion knew that in advance either.

But he does argue that. He doesn't believe in the sword's power.


After he used it in a battle he was expecting to win but lost.

He doesn't say "I won't avenge Ned Stark because i don't want Robb to steak half my kingdom".


Losing half his kingdom is explicitly given as a reason not to ally with Robb. Since (as I already said) Stannis is set on killing Cersei & Joffrey, the thing Cressen asks which he's not going to do is "help the boy".

that he doesn't feel like doing it


He doesn't say that he doesn't feel like killing Cersei & Joffrey.

Stannis response is tied to how he feels about Robert and Ned


That is actually relevant to how an act should be evaluated. When Arya joins the Faceless Men, she's not supposed to have any personal feelings about the people she kills. When she kills Raff in revenge for Lommy, that's not very Faceless.

Davos certainly don't bring Ned up.


Davos indeed doesn't bring up Ned. Stannis is saying what he's going to bring Cersei to justice for. And this is not in exchange for any support from the Starks, nor does Stannis portray it as personal. Stannis even refused to call his own brother "beloved" (while also insisting on "Ser Jaime Lannister, the Kingslayer") in his public letter! It's not like Stannis is only permitting Cressen to know how little he cared for Robert.

Why would Tarly stop then??


This thread is unrepresentative, not everyone just keeps arguing. Particularly when one owes fealty to another as king!

On 4/10/2021 at 8:06 AM, Minsc said:

Frankly, I think we can almost be certain Robert played little role in arranging that marriage.  Otherwise Stannis would have complained about in one of his appearances.

I would also say that's excessively relying on an absence of evidence. Although I do think in practical terms Jon Arryn would be more likely to be the one who came up with the idea, just as he had pushed a reluctant Robert to marry Cersei.

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17 hours ago, FictionIsntReal said:

The marriage was in 286 or 287, when Stannis was around 22 or older. Steffon died in 278 after trying to find a bride for Rhaegar. It doesn't appear any betrothal was arranged for Robert, who instead picked Lyanna out for himself, nor was there anything for Renly (who was admittedly just a baby at the time). The marriages after Robert's rebellion were shaped by the politics of it, not bound to political alliances precedig it (when Steffon Baratheon was one of the people most trusted by Aerys).

It's a good way to say you don't know. 

People are less likely to rush when in peace and we don't even know Selyse's exact age. It's perfectly likely that they waited both of themto be ready but the war just got in between,

The only marriage after the Robellion that was shaped by the politics of it, it0s Robert's and we're told that.

 

 

 

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Ned didn't want it. Robert says to Ned "If I wanted to honor you, I'd let you retire. I am planning to make you run the kingdom and fight the wars while I eat and drink and wench myself into an early grave." He also says "I bedded a fishmaid once who told me the lowborn have a choicer way to put it. The king eats, they say, and the Hand takes the shit."

The job being hard doesn't mean it's not an honor. Both Cat and Luwin saw it as such and it has been historically viewed as such.

 

 

 

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Why is it a point in his favor when we know of nobles explicitly favoring older candidates for the throne, and the entire idea of primogeniture is to favor the oldest?

Because, he's not married and he form new alliances, he's not a toddler (there is a difference between Aegon and Maegor and Joffrey, there is a reason Daeron inherited just fine). And no one wabt Stannis if they can avoid it. 

 

 

 

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Those "exceptions" are where people were explicitly making a choice for a king rather than succession just proceeding normally. Edric is a bastard, so the throne would not normally go to him.

In one instance the paternity of a child had as much weight as his age, in the other instance a mad man would rather his infant son over his toddler grandson... who he was planning to get killed-

If Edric was just a bastard sure, a legitimized bastard whose father acknowledged as heir  is a different beast. The throne would normally go to him in case of no trueborn children.

 

 

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I don't mean to say that it's normal to be fine with your older child murdering their younger half-siblings. But a distaste for a young heir requiring a regency IS normal.

Hmm it's not. Else young heirs would get passed always. 

 

 

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The Blackfyres were never supported by any of the Lords Paramount, and they lost every rebellion. And the Blackfyre argument was that Daeron II was a "falseborn" bastard! The result was bastards being even more distrusted (even Daemon II's supporters dismissed the legitimized Bittersteel as a bastard).

And yet they were supported by half the kingdom, lost the first rebellion by a hair and even after they were losing every rebellion they still counted with support.

The Blackfyre argument was that Aegon chose Daemon when he gave him the sword of kings.

 

 

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After the death of Jaehaera, Aegon III didn't simply have his marriage dictated to him. He was able to pick Daenaera.

He was specifically allowed to pick a bride and the only reason the betrothal wasn't overruled was because the regents refused to do so.

 

 

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I don't see the relevance. Since they weren't in KL with Stannis, we can't expect them to say anything about Stannis' mindset when he was in KL. The one person we know Stannis confided in near the end of his time there was Jon Arryn.

No, we can expect them to say anything about Stanni's mindset once they appeared. They do thinkabout his mindset quite a bit. But this time.

 

 

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Ned thinks that if he tells Robert, Robert will definitely try to kill them. We know Cersei also thinks Robert is more likely to believe Ned than his brothers. Stannis said he wen to Jon Arryn because Robert would be unlikely to believe him and more likely to believe his Hand. Stannis cannot rely on the same option Ned did, hence flight being more reasonable for him.

- So, Ned doesn't think the Lannisters are going to kill him.

-He still abandons his brothers once he sees he's not going to be made Hand.

- He refuses to do his duty, that we all should regardless the risk.

- He refuses to contact with Ned even when he was well aware of the bond his brother and him shared.

 

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By the time we get to see him he's safe on Dragonstone, which he's locked down sufficiently that even Varys isn't getting reports back.

And the Lannisters can build a fleet to meet him there. If the Lannisters were to believe him a threat to be eliminated, they don't lack of the time or resources to try and finish him.

Yet, he never shows that he was ever afraid in the first time.

 

 

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Stannis has a different reason for believing it than Ned. When Jon died, Stannis concluded Cersei arranged it to prevent Jon from revealing the incest (Ned comes to the same conclusion). In order for that to happen, she must have been aware that Jon was aware of the incest. Jon had heard about it via Stannis, so if someone was spying on Jon (or Stannis) during his investigation they probably would have observed him investigating alongside Stannis (just as Ned discovers in his own investigation). Ned only discovers "the secret Jon Arryn died for" near the end of his tenure. Once Cersei knows that he knows, she actually does try to threaten him with her "wrath" saying "you win or you die", which doesn't intimidate Ned because he's expecting Robert to arrive soon.

So, Ned actually doesn't believe he is going to die by the Lannisters. Cersei tries to bribe him, she doesn't threaten him and Ned does not feel affected by it. At any rate, Ned believes he is going to be murdered even tho he was blatantly following Arryn's footsteps. Ad he was told he was being spied on.

There's no difference between them.

 

 

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I would presume she would try to arrange things with her goons when they wre all in the same place, but in Stannis' eyes she just established an M.O of leaving town and having her enemy killed while she's away.

An established M.O of one instance??  That is not how you draw patterns.

Staying when she's there and leaving when she's not in questionable, to say the least.

 

 

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If Stannis arrests Cersei for incest & Jon's assassination and then he suddenly dies, it's going to look like an assassination rather than natural causes and Robert is unlikely to reverse Stannis' order.

Stannis can't arrest Cersei without Robert's blessing, for none of those actions. The only way he actually can do that is if Robert's out of town. But if Robert and the Hand are out of town, the most senior Baratheon around gets to rule the Realm, as happened with Renly in AGOT, Stannis does not need that.

If Stannis is made Hand he can be killed within the hours anyway wihout him ever having the time to bring anything to light.

 

 

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Being named Hand IS bestowing with that power. Ned seems to think as Hand he's just the King's friend & right-hand man, but Tyrion actually understands the power of the office.

It's not actually.

He has the power if the King actually bestows him that power. Tyrion had the advantage of having the power to ignore a minor king  and having the power to cow Cersei with the Tywin card.

We know from Aerys &Tywin  Alysas-Jaeharys & Rogar Baratheon  how effective a Hand really is when the King/Regent is not on his side.  Even Unwin Peake, who controlled the city, was made completely ineffective once the regents became fed up with him and the only way he had to gain control was to place one of his men as regent.

 

 

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The Hand can simply give orders and people obey them because the Hand speaks with the voice of the king.

When the king is not around maybe. But the Hand sure as hell cannot order the arrest of the Royal Family without the biefing the king first.

 

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By the time we see him he's beyond the reach of Cersei's agents.

Fear is always a powerful factor that is usually brought up, not hidden under the mat and never talked about it never again.

 

 

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I'm reaching a conclusion using Ned's logic and Stannis' knowledge at the time.

Hmmm no, you're cherry picking. Ned's logic didn't have in account many of Stannis's thoughts and actionsand you don't have in account either.

Reaching a conclusion based on flawed logic with insufficient data is not a good way of arguing.

 

 

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We never hear of Stannis reading that book. It was just Jon Arryn.

We never hear him speaking of fear either. Yet both of them were investigating the same thing and the fact that Arryn demanded the book doesn't mean he was not aware of its existence. Unless you're arguing that Arryn for some reason hid info from him.

 

 

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Ned actually discovered the truth and nearly got rid of Cersei, which would have worked out very well for Stannis. Stannis doesn't have to personally like him to take into account how Ned as Hand affects his odds.

Sure, Ned as Hand preventing Robert from dying actually affects his odds of becoming king greatly. 

 

 

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This isn't the Roman empire where succesors are chosen & adopted. This is a system of primogeniture where the first son inherits, and if he dies without heirs it moves to the second son. The Dance of the Dragons was fought when the candidate of traditional succession law claimed the crown ahead of the one the king explicitly chose, and Stannis regards the latter as a traitor while maesters say an "iron precedent" was established in favor of the former. Stannis says it would be suspiciously convenient for him to claim incest... because it would be, which is the line the Lannisters take after he makes that accusation.

Choosing Edric/Mya ahead of Stannis, or remarrying to produce heirs of his own does not go against any tradional system so, the point is moot.

What Stannis says and the truth are different matters, fact is Robert could have prevented Stannis from getting the throne had he actually wanted to.

 

 

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How does telling Jon Arryn accomplish that? And are we supposed to believe that of the guy fixated on duty, of whom GRRM says he's the one king righteous enough to act on behalf of the realm against an external threat rather than just focusing on his own position?

- It doesn't. He still was moved to prove to Robert that his sons were bastards.

- Once Arryn died and he felt snubbed by Robert yet again, things changed.

- Stannis abandons his brothers expecting to die, refuses to share a valuable info that could not only save their lives but to bring the Lannisters to an end much faster, he steals the Royal Fleet, he calls his banners and starts hirings sellswords. Waiting for Robert's death.

- Stannis is fixated on duty as much as he is on ambition, jealosy and avenging past slights.

-Had Stannis been fixated on duty he would have tried to inform Robert after he was denied the position of Hand, we know what he didn't do.

- The only reason Martin call him righteous is because he is fighing the others which the only advantage he has, giving that Stannis is also fighting for the throne and that only Tyrion and Varys were ever informed about that threat is a meagre advantage. 

 

 

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Serves just as much for what and as what?

Him going against the Lannisters.

 

 

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He didn't want Robert dead?

Nope, he did only once Ned was given the office of Hand.

 

 

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Robert had already chosen Jon Arryn over Stannis as Hand before. This just doesn't seem different enough, nor was it a personal enough matter to make sense as the straw that breaks the camel's back. I'm trying to interpret characters through a consistent lens where they will tend to behave similarly under similar situations, and a reason must be given for behaving differently. Peering inside the character to deduce there's some limit that an individually unremarkable incident could trip just requires you to have more knowledge of them than you actually have as it is.

Yet, Stannis does not mind that. He actually minds Ned. Stannis was 18 at the time and inexperieced, he is not that now.

And no, you're not trying to interpret the characters, because there is no reason to assume Stannis would have behaved the same way. Especially when we're given a reason why they might not to. In fact expecting that you will behave the same ways on events that are 15 years apart betwenn them is not a safe bet.

We know for a fact that Stannis was very much bothered with that decision. 

 

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I sat on his council for fifteen years, helping Jon Arryn rule his realm while Robert drank and whored, but when Jon died, did my brother name me his Hand? No, he went galloping off to his dear friend Ned Stark, and offered him the honor. And small good it did either of them.”

 

 

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His deep-set eyes regarded her uncomfortably. This was not a man made for easy courtesies. “I am sorry for your lord’s death,” he said, “though Eddard Stark was no friend to me.” “He was never your enemy, my lord. When the Lords Tyrell and Redwyne held you prisoned in that castle, starving, it was Eddard Stark who broke the siege.” “At my brother’s command, not for love of me,” Stannis answered. “Lord Eddard did his duty, I will not deny it. Did I ever do less? I should have been Robert’s Hand.” “That was your brother’s will. Ned never wanted it.” “Yet he took it. That which should have been mine.

 

Stannis resents Ned for being close to Robert.

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“Why should I avenge Eddard Stark? The man was nothing to me. Oh, Robert loved him, to be sure. Loved him as a brother, how often did I hear that? I was his brother, not Ned Stark, but you would never have known it by the way he treated me. I held Storm’s End for him, watching good men starve while Mace Tyrell and Paxter Redwyne feasted within sight of my walls. Did Robert thank me? No. He thanked Stark, for lifting the siege when we were down to rats and radishes. I built a fleet at Robert’s command, took Dragonstone in his name. Did he take my hand and say, Well done, brother, whatever should I do without you? No, he blamed me for letting Willem Darry steal away Viserys and the babe, as if I could have stopped it.

 

The notion that he should have behaved the same is actually a surprising one.

 

  1. Stannis does not crave Robert's bond with Arryn, he craves the one with Ned.
  2. Stannis doesn't resent Robert's bond with Arryn, he resents the one with Ned.
  3. Stannis doesn't feel entitled to Robert's attention and honors towards Arryn, he does with Ned.

How would his reaction not be way worse with Ned?

 

 

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Why would he expect that? Joffrey was still set to inherit, so there wasn't a pressing need. And if Ned discovers the truth, the Lannisters can be purged before they can kill Robert. Tywin will fight back, seeing as the mere arrest of Tyrion prompted aggression, but he'll have a tough time killing Robert.

Because the Lannisters were cutting loose ends and the biggest and more dangerous one was Robert?

 

 

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Robert doesn't even seem to mind that Stannis took it to Dragonstone.

So, he didn't steal them then? Robert doesn't seem to care about Stannis in general. He does not pronounce his name once,

Ned does mind about the fleet however.

 

 

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Fair enough. The book seems to have tipped things for Jon, and he sought that out himself rather than getting it from Stannis.

It was their joint investigation however.

 

 

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What is the relevant difference between explaining/proving and determining viability?

You spend far more time doing the latter than the former.

The former is a simple presentation.

 

 

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He did what?

What he could've done.*

 

 

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Stannis has always thought he was neglected, but he always does what Robert asks of him anyway ("Great or small, we must do our duty"). This is not some super-personal matter that he would treat differently.

Except in AGOT when he does not do his duty and he's overtly disloyal.

How is not a super personal matter?? Do i have to quote you Stannis's rant about Ned's and Robert's bond again?

 

 

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Stannis isn't especially well-liked, so he can hardly claim much of an advantage over the Lannisters if there's a succession crisis. The Lannisters will hold KL while he holds Dragonstone, just like the Greens vs the Blacks in the Dance... but he doesn't have any dragons, nor did Robert name him ahead of Joffrey since Robert didn't know about the incest.

No, but he can try and claim the Stormlands and from there, it's the Blackwater all over again. Especially because Renly was in KL with Robert and was unlikely to survive him, him becoming LP right away. Even if he did survive, Stannis has proven that he sees Renly's allegiance and the Stormlord's as must.

So, theoretically, the Stormlords, the Royal Fleet and the sellswords are quite a nice combo to fight the Lannisters.

 

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Ned actually does think Robert will kill Cersei & the kids, so I'm not sure what you're arguing here.

Does Ned also believe that Robert was going to spontaneously combust? Because that's the only way Stannis actually benefits from the succesion crisis. If Robert dies soon enough without trueborn heirs,, or having chosen an heir himself.

 

 

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We hear Jaime arguing with Cersei about this, as he wasn't afraid while she was. Relevant info we have now that Stannis didn't is that Cersei wasn't actually behind Jon Arryn's assassination. That was not something going according to plan for her, it was an unexpected event she's scrambling to react to.

Jaime also believed that his kids could still keep the throne if he revealed the world the twincest and that nothing was going to happen to him. Cesei was particularly afraid and was trying to get Robert killed.

 

 

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Ned did discover it, by retracing Jon Arryn's steps. With a particularly suspicious bit being Jon's interactions with Stannis.

Which he would have never done without Lysa.

 

 

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Stannis & LF hate each other. They were never in cahoots.

They hate each other? That's a new one.

They don't need to be in cahoot for Petyr to accidentally let him now what was transpiring.

 

 

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No, we don't "know" that. You are simply claiming that based on an absence of evidence, even though you acknowledge we can't actually expect to know most of what Stannis has thought & felt.

Nope, I'm claiming that because Stannis was preparing for his brother's death. That he never shows or hints fears is just the cherry on the top.

 

 

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Pycelle also thought Cersei was behind Jon's poisoning because of the incest. Varys & LF knew about the incest, with the latter actually responsible for said poisoning. Renly is who we've argued about. Varys actually told Ned that Cersei was trying to get Robert killed in the melee.

Pycelle didn't think Cersei was going to kill Robert, neither LF seemed to know, neither did Barri or Renly. Varys did know however.

 

 

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I actually do think that was part of what was going on. Stannis wanted Robert to seek his help.

How and why if Robert doesn't know there is something bad going on?

 

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What?

Words that are not really meant seriously.

 

 

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I'm not sure what you're referring to. Selyse claims that her marriage bed was cursed by Robert fathering Edric Storm there, which isn't the same as saying Robert himself was a curse. Stannis responds with a "Perhaps" then saying it doesn't matter.

Oh, this bit is my bad. In the spanish translation it is indeed translating as curse.

But here is just something unwelcome.

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 I ask you, why did the gods inflict me with brothers?”

 

 

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After Ned has already been asked to serve as Hand, there is the argument where Luwin says "The Hand of the King has great power, my lord. Power to find the truth of Lord Arryn's death, to bring his killers to the king's justice. Power to protect Lady Arryn and her son, if the worst be true." But of course you don't think Stannis would have had any more power if he had been named Hand.

The Hand of the King has that power if he is on the same page with the King, being Hand did not serve Ned one bit once Robert died.

 

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Arryn was "ravenous"?

He almost get her and her family killed. How would you describe him?

 

 

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She thinks Bronn is still an agent of Tyrion's.

Yet not a threat. 

 

 

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When Robert dies Renly is immediately angling to strike to seize Joffrey and thereby have power over the kingdom. He figures Cersei is thinking along the same lines but didn't have enough men on hand to overpower Renly's & Ned's. Prior to Robert's death there was no regency to violently seize, nor would there be if Joffrey had lived into adulthood. If he had stuck around, his men added to Ned's could have prevented anything prior to the Lannisters bringing in enough reinforcements for a coup, but then he'd be in the path of said reinforcements and he hasn't gotten Ned's ok on using his own forces to control Joffrey. And prior to that he hadn't given any indication of being afraid of Cersei. He's rather insouciant about mocking Joffrey in front of her. Perhaps in your view he was confident enough in his plan to replace Cersei that he expected her to be gone soon, and for enough time to have passed for Joffrey not to hold it against him.

  1. When Robert dies, Renly inmediately opts to seize Joffrey to assert Ned's control over the Kingom.
  2. Prior to Robert's death Renly wants Robert to set Cersei aside.
  3. If he had stuck around his men added to Ned's would have been overrun by the the Lannisters and the Gold Cloaks.
  4. He has never given a sign of him minding Joffrey at all.
  5. There is no evidence of Stannis ever fearing Cersei, yet you try to disclaim both Renly's and Cersei's words?

 

 

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I assume you mean "Robb recognized Stannis", and Stannis didn't manage to seize KL so there wouldn't be any point in Robb calling him "king" then.

How so?? Robb's cause is clearly doomed and he still goes by that. You call king to those you acknowledge as such.

Robb never acknowledged either Baratheon brothers nor the Baratheon brothers acknowledged him.

 

 

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I'm not sure what version of that peace you have in mind. After Renly's assassination Brienne says to Catelyn "you'd never make a peace with Stannis, would you? Bend the knee?" to which Cat just replies she doesn't know.

When Cat actions or words do not favour Stannis you remind she's not a valid interlocutor, when they do you point bring her up.

Robb himself wouldn't.

 

 

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Joffrey was acknowledged by other houses prior to the Martells. All of KL other than those brought in by Ned had recognized him, along with houses of the mainland crownlands.

And none of them mattered enough. The Martells did.

 

 

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Robert also had one defeat (in his case it was before rather than after enemy reinforcements arrived), but since he managed to escape he was ultimately able to win the war. Being able to keep your forces orderly enough during a defeat to get away is indeed a test for a commander, though of course it's not nearly as good as a victory.

Robert had one defeat and managed to keep most of his army and retreated in good order. Stannis's army was almost wiped out. It's not as if he kept his army orderly enough, is that some of them died so Stannis could flee.

 

 

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It was a force which had attacked the Wall and was expected to break through before Stannis arrived. The Roman empire was also invaded by barbarian tribes displaced by others far away, but nobody used the term "refugee" to describe them back then either.

Sure, we now have a proper name for them. Stannis broke a camp of refugee. Which were actually the reason Mance's host was so vast.

 

 

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One of the advantages the Wehrmacht had early in WW2 was that they had experience invading Poland. You might say "Just conquering Poland was enough when Stalin was seizing the other half of the country?". But it made a big difference against the French (who on paper had a very powerful army). One of the reasons Robb was able to destroy the new force raised in the Westerlands is that those troops were all green.

That and the fact that they actually made a proper strategy to counter the French, they did not rely of the experience of months of war.

Nope, the reason was able to destroy the new orce raised in the Westerlands was because he caught them unprepared.  Sae reason why he defeats Jaime.

 

 

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Melisandre's visions in the flames are repeatedly discussed. And it's not just code for "I know because I'm going to kill them", as Stannis gets to see such visions himself, and in Melisandre's POV we see she really does have visions she believes in (although what she says about them can be unreliable).

The visions of Renly's and Penrose's deaths are only discussed in a "she said" manner. And Stannis sure as hell doesn't get to see those  very particular visions.

Those visions are a blatant code for "I know because i'm going to kill them". So blatant that Cressen and a Davos who has missed half the party are able to tell right away.

So is Stannis stupid now or was Maving having him lie when he specifically said that he did not believe in gods?

 

 

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No it didn't. Ned had to race Tywin to KL, and Aerys was ordering Jaime to behead Tywin rather than letting him take the city.

It did actually. We are not told that Ned had to race Tywin to reach KL, only that Tywin reached the city before, it was Rhaegar's death wihich prompted Tywin to join the rebels and Pycelle to allow him get in, it was Rhaegar's death  what make the Freys join the rebels.

Aerys was a dead man walking.

 

 

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The World of Ice and Fire just mentions that Viserys was the new heir after Rhaegar died, but it's not Aerys' Table Talk. We know that others have explicitly said long regencies are to be avoided, and Aerys' choice is the one consistent with view.

So, he doesn't claim it acually. Viserys is a long regency.

And do you know the saying about broken clocks right? You're acting as if an accident could be called a plan.

 

 

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She was also said to resemble her mother more, whereas Aegon resembled his father. Not that Aerys liked him either, admittedly, but he would at least look Valyrian rather than Dornish.

Well, he talked about smell not looks.

 

 

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To be fair, Aerys was doing unto others as he was doing unto himself :)

Sure but he wasn't doing it unto his own children and wife. He actually tried to get his grandsons killed.

 

 

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Sending Viserys away was a separate decision from the one to burn the city down. At that time he was still hoping Tywin would stop Robert despite everything Aerys had done to him. If there had actually been a siege, I think Aerys would have been flinging wildfire at Robert's forces outside.

No it wasn't.

The wildfire was planted way before the Trident, they were in fact planted to burn the city down and regarding Tywin and Aerys we have this bit about Rhaegar.

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Prince Rhaegar shook his head. "My royal sire fears your father more than he does our cousin Robert. He wants you close, so Lord Tywin cannot harm him. I dare not take that crutch away from him at such an hour."

 

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Jon Darry and Barristan Selmy rode to Stoney Sept to rally what they could of griffins' men, and Prince Rhaegar returned from the south and persuaded his father to swallow his pride and summon my father. But no raven returned from Casterly Rock, and that made the king even more afraid.

He only comes to believe Tywin is there to save him when he is at his gates and Pycelle convinces him he is there to save him. He didn't even know Tywin was moving.

 

 

 

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And their age contributed to that. Legally speaking, Maegor was clearly ahead of Aegon.

And he also had an insane father, which was a no no. Other people being maesters or disable made things easier for them.

 

 

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Renly didn't act like it was a priority to get them off it. He was wasting time while Robb fought up until Stannis besieged Storm's End. This discussion goes back to Renly's stance on the incest claim. LF invented the rumor about Patchface & Shireen to counter that claim, and Renly echoes just that propaganda against Stannis after Stannis brings up the incest. Renly isn't saying that because he actually believes the rumor, but instead for the same reason the Lannisters do. He's got a cynical stance on politics (presumably part of why he & LF get along) and his moves are calculated for political imagery. That's why I don't take seriously his scoffing at the incest claim.

  1. No, he act like it was a priority for the Lannisters to bleed off.
  2. He's not wasting time actually but k.
  3. Renly echoes that propaganda as means to hurt Stannis for shaming him for being gay. Renly does not publicly claim that it is true that the fool is Shireen's father. Renly doesn't say that because he's cynical he says that with the objective of being hurtful.

 

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Sighing, Renly half turned in the saddle. “What am I to do with this brother of mine, Brienne? He refuses my peach, he refuses my castle, he even shunned my wedding …” “We both know your wedding was a mummer’s farce. A year ago you were scheming to make the girl one of Robert’s whores.” “A year ago I was scheming to make the girl Robert’s queen,” Renly said, “but what does it matter? The boar got Robert and I got Margaery. You’ll be pleased to know she came to me a maid.” “In your bed she’s like to die that way.” “Oh, I expect I’ll get a son on her within the year. Pray, how many sons do you have, Stannis? Oh, yes—none.” Renly smiled innocently. “As to your daughter, I understand. If my wife looked like yours, I’d send my fool to service her as well.”

He doesn't bring the rumour before or after. Why would he?? He's made clear that he doesnt care about it. Him actually supporting the incest tale actually benefits him.  If anything, after the letter came out and Stannis remained just as alone, it should have been proof to him that no matter what, Stannis would not be supported with him around.

 

 

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Is Mace Tyrell really going to "bite them in the ass" when Renly has Loras with him and Margaery still married to him?

Yep. marriage can be dissolved and friendship, it's not that he has Loras but that half his army swore to a king, not a lord.

 

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It's not a simple matter of arithmetic. Robert & Stannis have both beaten opponents with larger numbers. Stannis has a lot of ships, which is how he's able to get to KL quickly, and the quicker KL is attacked (Stannis doesn't have to wait a fortnight for Penrose to consider his offer) the less time Tyrion has to prepare. Tyrion had a particular fear of that navy attacking KL at the same time as Renly's army, and he expressed thanks to the gods that Penrose delayed Stannis while Tyrion was able to continue working on his chain. With this shortened time frame, LF also has less time to go to the Tyrells (a longer trip than Stannis needs to get to KL) to negotiate anything. GRRM set things up so Stannis could be defeated in the nick of time.

In this case it is, since we're not talking about a camp of refugees.;)

  1. Renly was not really caring about the Lannisters preparing themselves for him. He was banking on Robb wearing them down, if not defeating them for him, and him starving the city.
  2. I don't really know what Stannis have to do with Renly's mindset but k.
  3. The time for negotiation is the exact same for Petyr, which only means that Stannis may take the city just to lose it little after.
  4. If Stannis doesn't get entertained with Storm's End, there is no telling whether Tywin would go after him or after Robb,

GRRM also set things up so Stannis could have a chance.

 

 

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That "weird sense of obedience" is to the system of primogeniture, which their aristocratic society is based on. And if Renly doesn't think Stannis is likely to have a son, then Renly becomes king anyway.

And Renly doesn't care and where it's said that Renly believed Stannis unlikely to have a son again?

 

 

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Robb seemed to think so.

It's fortunate then that we have more info than Robb.

With the alliance still standing and with a "Baratheon" son of Robert to fullfil his part, Stannis is still screwed.

 

 

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He'll have a large army behind the walls of the city, a navy so the city can't be cut off, and Robb's forces attacking the Lannisters' rear. Against that they'd have a child they can proclaim king (not yet married to Margaery of course and assuming Stannis hasn't seized the rest of the Crownlands before Tywin arrives) while Stannis on the throne denounces him as a bastard and puts Cersei on trial for incest & murder. Furthermore, if Stannis takes KL and has Sansa, then Catelyn is hardly going to release Jaime in a desperate attempt to get her back.

  1. An army that he cannot feed.
  2. A navy?? Stannis lost most of said navy thanks to the chains and given that the Redwyne hostage is as good as dead thanks to Cersei, the Redwyne fleet is soon coming for him. Meanwhile he doesn't have neither the Reach nor the Riverlands, he is starving.
  3. When did Robb say that he would attack the Tyrells again? Missed that part.
  4. It's unlikely thay he can seize the rest of the crownlands before Tywin arrives, even if he does. Joffrey is hidden. He doesn't even know were to look. He can't even know that he wasn't killed and his body simply is not being found.
  5. Stannis has been claiming that for a good while and it has been irrelevant. Stannis would like Aegon 2 after the Muddy Mess.
  6. Cersei and Sansa and all those fine hostages are going to die before he even gets to the Red Keep. Cersei ordered Payne to kill them all if Stannis were to win.

 

All in all, Stannis is doomed to fail.

 

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It was an army expected to break through the Wall, and which Tywin hoped would wreak havoc throughout the North.

It was an army of refugees that would simply overrun the the Wall, ditto with the North.

If i let 200k refugees in your borders without any type of supervision. their sheer size would mean havoc.

 

 

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Didn't you disagree with me when I said that?

When?

 

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There were lots of people who had sworn vows to Torrhen Stark, but those didn't go away when he bent the knee.

Renly doesn't have that standing. You know, newcomer, newly proclamed king...

 

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Which vow is he breaking? Is he letting Stannis execute them without trial?

He's not taking the throne.

 

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It actually happened in ancient Rome. It was called praetorianism. Ancient Rome doesn't exist in Westeros, so Renly hasn't heard of it, but even if it did Renly doesn't care for books unless they're naughty picture books.

Sure, you can make that connection with the Kingsguard, which is the counterpart for the Praetorian. 

Oh yes, Renly bad becausehe's not an intellectual and he likes sex.

 

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That's true... but Renly rejects his argument against attacking at dawn, and gives the van to Loras Tyrell instead of Randyll.

So that means Renly is never going to listen to him, yet another slippery slope.

Given that Renly does listen to his reasons of why he should defeat Stannis now and that Loras excelled at the van... Moot.

 

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Earlier he was counting Stannis' forces as part of his own, was assuming the Martells would support him, that Selmy would joing his Rainbow Guard...

Sure and Stannis was calling Robb green and toothless. People make mistakes especially the arrogant ones like Renly, he doesn't really need Stannis anyway

 

 

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I don't claim it was "the only way". If he had Robb had coordinated their forces that was another possibility. I am saying that the reason Renly rejects Stannis' offer is that he wanted to be king, just as he had since he was a child. Renly's motivation throughout has been advancement for him & the Tyrells, not fear of Cersei. Smash his insistence that he'd be the better king against Stannis' that he's the king by rights and the Lannisters have enough time to stay in power.

  1. No, you said that the fact that he didn't want to submit to Stannis is a sign that he didn't want get rid of Cersei. Which is the same thing.
  2. Can you point to me where it's said that Renly wanted to be king since  he was a child? That part sure is new.
  3. Except that Renly himself says otherwise and so tell us his actions.
  4. Do you think so? Did  Robb always want to be king because he gets attached to the persona later on? Saying that he'd be a better king than his brothers is not a sign that he always wanted it.
  5. How so? A 100k army was coming down to a starving city.

 

 

 

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He didn't ask for the crown. When Robert was proclaimed king Stannis accepted that and served Robert. He claims the crown because Cersei's children are bastards born of incest, which we know to be true as she admitted it. Catelyn agrees that's the legal implication.

Could Stannis have refuse? The minute Stannis refused to tell Robert about the twincest, he asked for it.

 

 

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"We must get Joffrey away from his mother and take him in hand [...] We should seize Myrcella and Tommen as well. Once we have her children, Cersei will not dare oppose us."
Renly portrays it as both him & Ned controlling Cersei's children and thus having power.

 

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The council will confirm you as Lord Protector and make Joffrey your ward."

If Renly's men are helping Ned to stage a coup, then Renly and Ned are in it together, so Cersei has to act against both. That does not mean that Renly continues holding the children once things have cooled down or once Ned's confirmed as regent. This Renly denies and it's completely impossible to guess from that bit. Yet you keep twisting those words  to get a b from an x.

He doesn't portray it as both him and Ned controlling the children and thus having the power.

 

 

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Does Stannis consider a marriage alliance with Lysa to be begging? Later Selyse says "How he might win half a kingdom if he goes to the Starks on his knees and sells our daughter to Lysa Arryn?" The former bit is portrayed as begging, the latter as selling. And Stannis does give more consideration to the latter than the former.

Yes he does actually, once Selyse puts that idea in his head. Selyse outright calls that act begging in her presentation!! What are you even arguing?

 

 

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What is her misinterpretation?

As a waste of time and as a child's play. Ofc she thinks that because she actually wants those armies to move against the Lannisters asap.

 

 

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It's consistent with how he talks to her earlier. She says he already has all he needs because of the Lord of Light supports him, and he pragmatically says he needs swords rather than blessings and then sarcastically asks if she can provide him an army. When she says the house she was born into will support Stannis, he says they don't have enough swords and he doesn't share her faith in her family. So then when she says he will attain the swords sworn to Renly if Renly dies, he points out how unlikely that is to happen. It's only when Selyse informs him that Melisandre actually saw it in the flames that he embraces that option.

Harsh? Sure but he's harsh with everyone  and Selyse especially is accostumed to that, He does not dismiss her right away, in any stretch of imagination, he actually discusses the logistics of the murder and is hooked once he knows that is actually possible to kill Renly.

 

 

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She didn't say anything about a requirement to be "near" a target (denying that she needed to be brought to Renly), just that Storm's End was protected by spells.

She isn't brought to Renly. Renly dies miles away  of her. Yet he still dies in Storm's End. She could have killed Renly in Dragonstone if not.

 

 

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Stannis doesn't believe in her religion, but he does believe she has the ability to see things in the flames. That's what Selyse tells Stannis about that gets him to go down that route (and we also hear of him seeing a vision in the flames himself). And if he thinks Melisandre is telling the truth about Renly dying and him obtaining Renly's army, then it's not a suicide mission.

Since when?? Her ability is part of that religion and Stannis is not presented as someone who believes in her. Hell, in his conversation with Davos he makes clear that he doesn't know whether Meli is for real or not but that he's willing to use her because she terrifies grown men,

 

 

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That is what he's trying to do, but Melisandre is hardly enslaved by him like Euron's warlocks. She has the discretion to choose what to tell him so as to ensure her agenda is served.

By giving him what he wants? Because Stannis wanted both Renly's army and Edric.

Those were established goals to get and hold the throne.

 

 

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That would then give Stannis the leverage to order her to make assassins on command to fulfill Stannis' political goals. That's not what Melisandre wants. She wants Stannis to perform sacrifices a la Azor Ahai, eventually sacrificing even that which he loves most to end the Long Night. I mentioned that Melisandre offers to sleep with Davos & Jon to make more shadows. We certainly don't hear of Stannis ordering any men to sleep with her. She's maintaining her own control over that.

Why? Meli can come up with bs excuses anyway ad she certainly and her babies are not an impediment for Stannis to kill people for his goals.

I did not say that Stannis ordered it, I said that that was a way she had to show him it was possible,

 

 

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He uses the word "fratricide", and we know that kinslaying includes killing people in battle (as Bloodraven did, as well as Bael the Bard's Stark son but NOT Bael himself).

Sure and Cressen has not heard about a battle but about a murder plan. What are the odds?

If Stannis were to kill Renly in battle he wouldn't have waited that much wondering about what to do.

 

 

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Unlike with Renly, Stannis explicitly says Penrose will die outside of combat. He attributes this knowledge to Melisandre. Also unlike with Renly, he doesn't tell his men to prepare to attack the next day. He doesn't even select a champion for single combat.

Unlike Renly, Penrose isn't his brother and a him being assasinated is far less egregious than it is to assasinate Renly, If the Srormlords had have a reason to suspect Stannis had a hand in dear Renly's murder... do you think they would have served him?

He attributes the knowledge about Penrose being murdered to Melisandre, yep the man is indeed either stupid or zealot.

 

 

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Did he need to insist on dawn as the time of the attack and thereby risk Renly rejecting the idea out of hand? Or did specify that because he actually thought that would be to the advantage of his forces in the coming battle?

Why would Renly reject the idea? Renly did not believe Stannis had a chance regardless the hour of the day. Neither he actually had.

He sets a time and kills his brother before said time.

 

 

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Does the prologue or that first Davos chapter say there won't be a battle?

It says that.

  • Stannis is openly discussing Renly's murder.
  • Stannis wants Renly's army.
  • Stannis is fine with Renly dying if that gets him the army.
  • Stannis is told that Meli's "visions" mean fratricide.
  • There is no discussion whatsoever of a battle.
  • Stannis is sleeping while his men are awake.
  • Stannis is lying about his involvement in  Renly's death.
  • Stannis orders an clear assasination with the same code words.
  • Stannis says that Penrose seems hale and hearty... like his brother before his death and that the night is dark and full of terrors.
  • Davos can tell right away that he's being ordered to assist on a murder.

 

 

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Eddard Stark & Barristan Selmy would certainly consider assassination less honorable. But both get you the label of kinslayer per Bloodraven's example. Which is why Stannis talks about wanting to avoid sullying Lightbringer with his brother's blood.

Eddard Stark, Barristan Selmy and all of Westeros. Killing a brother in a battle is frowned upon but it's certainly way way better than murdering in his tent because you were too afraid to face him in battle.

 

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Stannis has sex with her for prurient reasons, which we know from her POV after Stannis is no longer able to make any shadows.

Except the nights he killed Penrose and Renly, when he did it for lust and murder. 

 

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Was Melisandre relying on Davos or Jon to "guide" her shadows in their sleep? She tells Davos he could serve his king's cause by coming to her chambers where she would give Davos pleasure and she would make another.

She sure was. And Davos is not needed to give it birth to it so...

 

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I don't think I understand what you're getting at. At the time when Stannis is demanding Edric from Storm's End, the only motivation mentioned in the book is as "proof". The notion of sacrificing Edric comes later, and Stannis disagrees with Melisandre about it until her prediction of three dead kings for three leeches (which we know was a trick) turns out to be true.

Stannis wants Edric just as much as Melisandre did, albeit for different reasons at the beginning. I think this is obvious enough.

 

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Stannis states that the proposed trial by combat would just be a trick, whereas Davos thinks Penrose is seeking a dignified way to die. Stannis goes with Melisandre's plan, which requires no risk at all to him.

Trick to what?

Stannis simply rathers to murder him.

 

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The "simple truth" he should have seen was that one day would be the difference between victory and defeat? I don't think Tyrion knew that in advance either.

No, the simple truths that he is unknowingly conspiring to commit murder.

Given how easily both Davos and Cressen come to see the truth behind their words you would think that Stannis who isn't stupid would have noticed that something was sketchy, Yet stupidity or zealotry.

 

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After he used it in a battle he was expecting to win but lost.

He didn't expect it to win with the sword. He is simply saying that the sword is just fancy and that's all.

 

 

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Losing half his kingdom is explicitly given as a reason not to ally with Robb. Since (as I already said) Stannis is set on killing Cersei & Joffrey, the thing Cressen asks which he's not going to do is "help the boy".

But it's not explicitly given as a reason to not avenge Ned Stark.

The rant about Ned and Robert and how jealous he is, it's the rcplicit reason he gives for his behaviour.

There are two parts of the conversation, in one Robb's is mentioned by Stannis in the other he is completely ommited.

 

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He doesn't say that he doesn't feel like killing Cersei & Joffrey.

No, just that he doesn't feel like avenging Ned.

 

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That is actually relevant to how an act should be evaluated. When Arya joins the Faceless Men, she's not supposed to have any personal feelings about the people she kills. When she kills Raff in revenge for Lommy, that's not very Faceless.

?

 

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Davos indeed doesn't bring up Ned. Stannis is saying what he's going to bring Cersei to justice for. And this is not in exchange for any support from the Starks, nor does Stannis portray it as personal. Stannis even refused to call his own brother "beloved" (while also insisting on "Ser Jaime Lannister, the Kingslayer") in his public letter! It's not like Stannis is only permitting Cressen to know how little he cared for Robert.

No, Stannis says it to get brownie points, just as he lies with Renly and Robert desperately wanting the throne while he's only duty, that's why he says...

The Realm knows about the little love there is between either of them, it's not like Stannis has a crowd to kid. And Stannis actually says Jon that he loved Robert anyway.

It's only with Cressen when we actually get to see how embittered he is with his brothers, with Ned, with all. This is something we don't get to see again and it's obvious why, Cressen dies.

 

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This thread is unrepresentative, not everyone just keeps arguing. Particularly when one owes fealty to another as king!

Tarly does tho.

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On 4/16/2021 at 5:52 PM, frenin said:

The only marriage after the Robellion that was shaped by the politics of it, it0s Robert's and we're told that.

After the rebellion started we see not only that Ned has to take the place of his brother in a marriage arranged before the rebellion, but that Jon Arryn also married Lysa Tully, partly in reaction to the deaths of his heirs Elbert & Denys.

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The job being hard doesn't mean it's not an honor


Robert explicitly says he doesn't mean it as an honor when Ned tried to reject it!

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Because, he's not married and he form new alliances


I don't recall someone being unmarried ever referenced as a point in a candidate's favor.

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he's not a toddler (there is a difference between Aegon and Maegor and Joffrey, there is a reason Daeron inherited just fine)


Fair point, but that just means that it's not as bad, not that being younger is actually better.

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a mad man would rather his infant son over his toddler grandson... who he was planning to get killed


At that time I believe Aerys was planning on Tywin defending KL. He decided to burn everything only after Tywin entered and started sacking it.

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The throne would normally go to him in case of no trueborn children.


No bastard has ever inherited the throne, and Criston Cole insisted that none ever should when he became Kingmaker.

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Hmm it's not. Else young heirs would get passed always.


I said "a distaste", not "an overwhelming distaste". It's plain that people prefer to avoid a long regency, but not so much as to never accept one.

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And yet they were supported by half the kingdom


Where was that said?

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No, we can expect them to say anything about Stanni's mindset once they appeared.


That's after he's left KL and is no longer at risk like Jon Arryn.

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So, Ned doesn't think the Lannisters are going to kill him.


He disregards Cersei's threats because he figures Robert will back him up (and Cersei, realizing this, will flee). Stannis says he didn't think Robert would believe him, which is why he went to Jon Arryn in the first place, and Cersei confirms Robert really is more likely to listen to Ned than his brothers.

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He still abandons his brothers


You've gone from "brother" to "brothers". How is he "abandoning" Renly when he has nothing he owes Renly?

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He refuses to do his duty, that we all should regardless the risk


He tried and it didn't work, you can't expect him to try the exact same thing again.

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And the Lannisters can build a fleet to meet him there


Certainly they can, and he'll have a head start with the royal fleet (we don't  hear about him hiring sellsails until after Robert's death). The Lannisters never make a move against Dragonstone as long as he's there though.

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Cersei tries to bribe him, she doesn't threaten him


Of course she does. "And what of my wrath, Lord Stark? [...] When you play the game of thrones, you win or you die."

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There's no difference between them.


Of course there is. Ned is Hand, and Robert trusts him more than he does Stannis.

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An established M.O of one instance??  That is not how you draw patterns.


What an awful scientist Stannis is for not being willing to serve as the guinea pig to replicate the assassination experiment.

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Staying when she's there and leaving when she's not in questionable, to say the least.


How is it "questionable" when that's the circumstance under which Jon was poisoned?

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Stannis can't arrest Cersei without Robert's blessing


Ned orders that Gregor Clegane be killed and Tywin brought to KL to answer for him. He also (falsely) claims Tyrion was arrested under his authority. Robert doesn't object that he hadn't given his blessing, but rather that arresting Tyrion is causing a political headache he doesn't want. The Hand speaks with the King's voice, even if the King has his own voice and can overrule the Hand.

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Stannis does not need that


I don't think I understand what you're getting at. Jaime & Cersei have left, so he can't very well arrest them from KL.

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He has the power if the King actually bestows him that power


Being named Hand by itself bestows power! The Hand can give orders, and people are expected to obey.

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We know from Aerys &Tywin


Tywin was a very effective Hand for years, and he was able to make policy even in his later years (which Aerys would often reverse).

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Even Unwin Peake, who controlled the city, was made completely ineffective once the regents became fed up with him and the only way he had to gain control was to place one of his men as regent.


He was not "completely ineffective", he staffed a lot of positions. There was one issue he threatened to quit over: Aegon III's marriage. Not getting his way on that hardly removed all his other power. And he didn't "place one of his men as regent" and thereby regain power, rather Thaddeus Rowen became the new Hand until a Rogare scandal permitted a conspiracy against them. And even afterward Marston Waters of the KG (named to it by Aegon II, not Peake) became Hand, refused to force his way into the Red Keep and ultimately ordered the arrest of the conspirators.

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When the king is not around maybe


Robert is an absentee King who lets his Hand rule in his place.

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But the Hand sure as hell cannot order the arrest of the Royal Family without the biefing the king first.


Of course he can order it. Marston even ordered it during the secret siege, although the Royal Family refused to obey.

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Reaching a conclusion based on flawed logic


What makes the logic "flawed"?

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both of them were investigating the same thing and the fact that Arryn demanded the book doesn't mean he was not aware of its existence. Unless you're arguing that Arryn for some reason hid info from him


Pycelle said Jon Arryn came down with his illness right after borrowing the book. It's to be expected there wasn't enough time for Stannis to be informed, rather than it being "hid" from him.

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Choosing Edric/Mya ahead of Stannis, or remarrying to produce heirs of his own does not go against any tradional system


Remarrying certainly doesn't, but putting a bastard on the throne does.

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What Stannis says and the truth are different matters, fact is Robert could have prevented Stannis from getting the throne had he actually wanted to.


If Robert "really wanted to" he could walk up to Stannis and stab him in the heart, which of course would have prevented Stannis from becoming king. Of course there are strong norms against doing that, just as there is a norm that a man without heirs is succeeded by his younger brother (which is also the explicit explanation for Stannis being given Dragonstone).

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It doesn't. He still was moved to prove to Robert that his sons were bastards.


I'm glad you agree: Stannis was not acting to ensure that Robert died without his children being removed from the succession.

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yet again, things changed


How much of a change can it be if it's "yet again"?

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he calls his banners and starts hirings sellswords. Waiting for Robert's death


We only hear about that after Robert's death.

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Stannis is fixated on duty as much as he is on ambition, jealosy and avenging past slights


If Stannis wanted to "avenge" Robert's slights, shouldn't that involve DOING SOMETHING? Robert doesn't even know any vengeance has occurred!

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The only reason Martin call him righteous is because he is fighing the others


He wants to, but technically hasn't done that yet. What he actually did was to defend the Wall, which is politically neutral and exists to defend all of Westeros. Tywin, in contrast, wanted to let Mance Rayder break through and ravage the North alongside the Ironborn (whom Stannis has also fought). Renly wasn't alive by the time news of Mance's attack was sent out, but we know he was content to let Robb do the fighting for him against the Lannisters.

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Nope, he did only once Ned was given the office of Hand.


That's an awfully big change considering that it was already well known that Robert didn't care much for his brothers.

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Especially when we're given a reason why they might not to


What is the reason?

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In fact expecting that you will behave the same ways on events that are 15 years apart betwenn them is not a safe bet.


This reminds me of the argument for R+L=J that Ned couldn't have fathered a bastard because he's just too honorable. Realistically, one should expect young Ned to be rather different from older Ned, but literary characters will tend to have more stable personalities off-page.

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The notion that he should have behaved the same is actually a surprising one.


Why shouldn't he behave as he have behaved in the past? When Robert gave Stannis a new assignment without thanking him for holding Storm's End, Stannis simply did it. Then when Robert gave Storm's End to Renly and Dragonstone to Stannis, Stannis held it and did his job as Master of Ships, including fighting the Greyjoys. Robert slighting Stannis (in Stannis' mind) is not a new occurrence.

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Because the Lannisters were cutting loose ends and the biggest and more dangerous one was Robert?


Robert didn't even know about the incest, so he wasn't a "loose end" like Jon Arryn.

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So, he didn't steal them then?


He's Master of Ships. He can command the fleet and it doesn't count as theft.

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The former is a simple presentation.


I still don't think I understand what you're trying to say.

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What he could've done.


So he did do what he could do... and it didn't work.

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Except in AGOT when he does not do his duty and he's overtly disloyal.


Nobody regards him that way other than Joffrey.

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How is not a super personal matter??


Because it's entirely in keeping with the way Robert had long treated Stannis.

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Especially because Renly was in KL with Robert and was unlikely to survive him


You really need to explain your theory of how Renly was supposed to die. Renly actually did survive Robert, and we know of no attempt on his life within that book.

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Because that's the only way Stannis actually benefits from the succesion crisis


Multiple kings have ascended the throne after their older brother died. Robert even said he wanted to abandon the throne, and was only reluctant to do so because it would mean Joffrey becoming king with Cersei beside him. And of course Robert only married because Jon Arryn badgered him into it.

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They hate each other? That's a new one.


LF mocks Stannis for wanting to ban brothels, and is of course a brothel owner himself. He insists that Stannis shouldn't be king, and suggests that Ned should feign support for Joffrey (despite knowing he's a bastard born of incest), get rid of Stannis somehow, and then replace Joffrey with Renly. Stannis, for his part, blames LF for corrupt folks like Janos Slynt.

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They don't need to be in cahoot for Petyr to accidentally let him now what was transpiring.


So he "accidentally let" Stannis know, but Renly (who gets along with LF better) doesn't know?

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Pycelle didn't think Cersei was going to kill Robert


If BOTH Pycelle and Stannis think Cersei poisoned Jon Arryn to cover up the twincest, why would Stannis but not Pycelle deduce that she would kill Robert?

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neither LF seemed to know


LF knows for a fact that Cersei didn't poison Jon, since he did it! But if the implication of "Cersei's children are the bastard spawn of incest" is "Cersei must kill Robert", then LF's knowledge of the former would (under your logic) lead to the latter. How would Stannis know more than LF of all people?

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How and why if Robert doesn't know there is something bad going on?


If Robert doesn't think there are problems he needs Stannis' help with, he's going to be less likely to listen to Stannis at all. But eventually he would want his Master of Ships for something.

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being Hand did not serve Ned one bit once Robert died


Ned relied on LF to supply the force to back him up. Tyrion replaced the commander of the goldcloaks rather than relying on LF to guarantee any loyalty. Steven Attewell discussed Ned's failure to use the power of his position like Tyrion in both chapter-by-chapter analyses and his comparison of different Hands.

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He almost get her and her family killed. How would you describe him?


He was a pragmatist loyal to Robert. He wasn't motivated by his own personal desires, he simply found out that Cersei (whom he'd gotten Robert to marry in the first place) really was guilty of treason.

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Prior to Robert's death Renly wants Robert to set Cersei aside.


And what reason is there to think this was because Renly was afraid of Cersei rather than because he was trying to boost the Tyrells? Shouldn't a more quick & decisive action which exposes you as little as possible be the recommended strategy for that?

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If he had stuck around his men added to Ned's would have been overrun by the the Lannisters and the Gold Cloaks.


There were 20 Lannister swords & 100 goldcloaks. If Renly really could bring 100 swords to bear, that actually could be enough within that confined space.

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He has never given a sign of him minding Joffrey at all.


That does raise the question of why he declares himself king rather than bending the knee to king Joffrey (even if he sits out most of the war like the Martells & Lysa). My answer is that Renly wanted power for himself & the Tyrells, which wouldn't be in the cards in that situation.

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There is no evidence of Stannis ever fearing Cersei, yet you try to disclaim both Renly's and Cersei's words?


Stannis is absent from the first book, so instead we have Ned's speculation about him. And when we hear from him we find out that he told Jon Arryn about the incest because he didn't think Robert would believe him, and that he thinks Cersei poisoned Jon. We heard from Pycelle that Cersei was out of town when Jon became sick, which is the exact circumstance that you say should have made Stannis feel safe when Robert left. Given what Stannis knows, it would be rather stupid of him not to think Cersei would try to get rid of him too.

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Robb's cause is clearly doomed and he still goes by that


Robb doesn't think he's doomed, he thinks he needs to shore up his support via Edmure's marriage & clearing the Ironborn out of the North.

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Robb himself wouldn't.


What makes you say that? Robb was unhappy Stannis didn't take KL, since he thinks he could make a peace with him (unlike the Lannisters). Robb rebelled to rescue his father & sisters, before Stannis claimed he had the right over Joffrey. Robb wouldn't have any reason to rebel against Stannis, who has promised to return Robb's sisters (in as unpleasant a way as possible since he hates sugarcoating things).

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And none of them mattered enough. The Martells did.


What do you mean "mattered enough"? The Martells didn't actually participate in the war.

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Robert had one defeat and managed to keep most of his army and retreated in good order


He did manage to retreat without getting his army destroyed, but said army was not able to fight any battles until reinforcements arrived at the Battle of the Bells.

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Sure, we now have a proper name for them


The Romans were not so dumb as to dismiss armies capable of overthrowing their empire as "refugees".

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Stannis broke a camp of refugee


He broke a host expected to break through the Wall and ravage the North.

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Nope, the reason was able to destroy the new orce raised in the Westerlands was because he caught them unprepared


It's easier to catch green troops that way. Think of Jon Connington's reflections on how the GC sets up camp.

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Sae reason why he defeats Jaime.


And it can be noted that while Jaime fought as a squire against the Kingswood Brotherhood, and assassinated Aerys during the war, he didn't have much command experience, in contrast to Tywin.

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Those visions are a blatant code for "I know because i'm going to kill them". So blatant that Cressen and a Davos who has missed half the party are able to tell right away.


Does Cressen know Melisandre has THAT kind of power? We know he underestimated her power in his assassination attempt.

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So is Stannis stupid now or was Maving having him lie when he specifically said that he did not believe in gods?


He doesn't believe in gods, but does believe in Melisandre's magic. Which is similar to the line GRRM has taken when people ask him about the gods of Planetos.

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We are not told that Ned had to race Tywin to reach KL, only that Tywin reached the city before


"Ned Stark was racing south with Robert's van, but my father's forces reached the city first".
Ned reached the city as it was being sacked, with Pycelle saying "Lord Stark moved too swiftly".

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Aerys was a dead man walking


As long as he was walking and there was still fighting to do, the war wasn't actually over. And of course that doesn't actually say anything about whether Rhaegar or Aerys had more supporters, since the Trident was the last attempt by the loyalists to defeat the rebels in the field after many rebel victories. Tywin's concern was whether the rebels would win the battle rather than if Rhaegar would survive. In a hypothetical where the rebels are finally put down but Rhaegar is mortally wounded, Tywin isn't going to try to take on the loyalist armies just to get his revenge on Aerys.

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Viserys is a long regency.


Not as long as Aegon VI.

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And do you know the saying about broken clocks right? You're acting as if an accident could be called a plan.


Which accident? I'm looking at some of the few situations where people exercise discretion over succession rather than just going with the legal default (which would favor Stannis over Renly, Aegon VI over Viserys and Maegor over Aegon V).

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Well, he talked about smell not looks.


I don't think he said anything about Aegon's smell.

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Sure but he wasn't doing it unto his own children and wife. He actually tried to get his grandsons killed.


He was trying to use said children as leverage over the Martells so they would continue supporting him, rather than simply killing them like his penultimate Hand. His decision to let Robert rule over ashes only comes after all hope is lost with Tywin sacking the city.

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regarding Tywin and Aerys we have this bit about Rhaegar


Rhaegar can say that, but Aerys opened the gates to Tywin anyway despite Varys telling him not to.

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And he also had an insane father, which was a no no


Have any adult Targaryens been excluded from succession because their father was insane? Because Rhaegar still seemed eligible.

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No, he act like it was a priority for the Lannisters to bleed off


I don't know what you mean by that. Renly never bled the Lannisters at all.

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Renly does not publicly claim that it is true that the fool is Shireen's father. Renly doesn't say that because he's cynical he says that with the objective of being hurtful.


Renly didn't say "If my wife looked like yours, I'd send my fool to service her as well. Just kidding, but your wife really is ugly." If you make a statement, you are implicitly claiming that statement is true by default. Similarly, Stannis really does think Renly's marriage is a sham, and (as I've been pointing out to John Suburbs) LF concurs with him & Margaery that she remained a maid despite being married to Renly.

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Yep. marriage can be dissolved


Who is going to dissolve it? Can that happen in time to arrange a betrothal with Joffery before the Baratheons seize KL? Would LF even bother going to attempt to make such a bargain?

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In this case it is, since we're not talking about a camp of refugees.


Was Robert also fighting camps of refugees?

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him starving the city


He's not blockading the city, merely blocking one specific source of food.

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The time for negotiation is the exact same for Petyr


With a fortnight subtracted from the timeline, is there time for BOTH Petyr's negotation and travel time for the relief force?

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which only means that Stannis may take the city just to lose it little after


It's easier to defend a city than to take it, due to the walls. And Stannis will be able to seize Cersei & Joffrey.

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If Stannis doesn't get entertained with Storm's End, there is no telling whether Tywin would go after him or after Robb


In that shortened timeframe, would there still be barges ready to get Tywin's forces there in time?

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where it's said that Renly believed Stannis unlikely to have a son again?


"Pray, how many sons do you have, Stannis? Oh, yes—none [...] As to your daughter, I understand. If my wife looked like yours, I'd send my fool to service her as well"
The bit about Patchface was invented by LF, but it is the case that Stannis doesn't care for his wife, and that's related to his lack of children: "he did his duty in the marriage bed once or twice a year, but took no joy in it, and the sons he had once hoped for had never come"

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It's fortunate then that we have more info than Robb.


Robb heard about the Tyrells joining the Lannisters. What's the relevant info we have that Robb lacks?

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An army that he cannot feed


When was there anything said about him being unable to feed his army?

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given that the Redwyne hostage is as good as dead thanks to Cersei, the Redwyne fleet is soon coming for him


You're saying that if Cersei kills Horas Redwyne, the Redwynes will attack Stannis and help to install Cersei's other son? And why would she kill Horas without the Redwynes doing anything against her? He was sent out in battle against Stannis (and got wounded). The expected result would be that Stannis winds up with Horas as hostage.

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When did Robb say that he would attack the Tyrells again


Lannisters. In this scenario Joffrey can't marry Margaery.

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Stannis would like Aegon 2 after the Muddy Mess


Aegon's army lost at the Muddy Mess. In this scenario, Stannis has just won at the Blackwater, capturing the Lannisters' king & queen regent. So more like after Aegon seized KL but before the Muddy Mess, if the North was opposed to the forces coming for Aegon. And speaking of the North, Roose Bolton would be making a different calculation with Jaime if Stannis had seized KL and those aforementioned royals.

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Cersei and Sansa and all those fine hostages are going to die before he even gets to the Red Keep. Cersei ordered Payne to kill them all if Stannis were to win


Sansa was able to get away from Payne while things were falling apart for the Lannisters.

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If i let 200k refugees in your borders without any type of supervision. their sheer size would mean havoc.


Wildlings have raided the North numerous times in the past. They are not simply "refugees", they are organized as a military force to defeat the Night's Watch. Tywin instead thinks of them as an "enemy" for the Ironborn & Northmen, and Mance Rayder a potential "useful ally".

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He's not taking the throne.


That's not breaking any sacred vow, and it's certainly not something he "owes" his vassals.

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Sure, you can make that connection with the Kingsguard, which is the counterpart for the Praetorian.


The standard size of a Roman cohort was 480, but they did start out as bodyguards for the elite and Criston Cole acting as Kingmaker is somewhat comparable.

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Oh yes, Renly bad becausehe's not an intellectual


Renly's lack of knowledge about history is a reason to look askance at his professed politics. And I just pointed out how that "apocalyptic scenario" was in fact "realistic" enough to happen in the real world. The Greeks even had the term "tyrant" for one who seizes power by force, while we have "coup d'etat" for when a military force overthrows its own government. The end result of eroded legitimacy of government in favor of mere force of arms is civil war.

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So that means Renly is never going to listen to him


It means he didn't, we don't know what would happen over a longer period of time.

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Loras excelled at the van


That was Garlan Tyrell leading the van in Renly's armor at the Blackwater. Attacking the rear of a force crossing a river & already engaged with the defenders of KL, not charging into a shield wall prepared for just such a charge. When Loras attacks Dragonstone he takes lots of casualties and winds up at death's door himself.

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People make mistakes especially the arrogant ones like Renly


And I have argued that Catelyn was right to perceive him as making mistakes in his plans against Stannis, as were Rowan & Tarly.

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No, you said that the fact that he didn't want to submit to Stannis is a sign that he didn't want get rid of Cersei. Which is the same thing.


I said joining with Stannis would suffice to get rid of Cersei, which you claimed to be his goal. However, it would mean less power for Renly & the Tyrells compared to being king himself, so he rejects it.

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Did  Robb always want to be king because he gets attached to the persona later on


He liked pretending to be Daeron the Young Dragon as a child, so there's continuity.

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Could Stannis have refuse? The minute Stannis refused to tell Robert about the twincest, he asked for it.


Stannis did attempt to convince Robert. And he hadn't heard of any plot to kill Robert.

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This Renly denies


What did Renly say about sending away his swords "once things have cooled down"?

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Yes he does actually, once Selyse puts that idea in his head


When did Stannis say that a marriage alliance with the Arryns would be "begging"? He only turned against it once he heard of Melisandre's vision which would get him an army without having to send Shireen to the Eyrie. He certainly doesn't deny that he had just said it was a worthwhile idea. Instead he continues to insist on how he needs more swords.

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As a waste of time and as a child's play


They don't actually do anything to win the kingdom. Cat wasn't born in the North, so she's not a complete stranger to the chivalric tradition, but she's also lived through a war and knows this is for peacetime.

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Harsh? Sure but he's harsh with everyone


Then would you say he "chides" everyone? Because I said he chided Selyse, and that he did so repeatedly. It's only when he hears of Melisandre's vision that he decides there actually might be some merit to her proposal, as he's not just relying on Selyse's assumption of R'hllor's favor to guarantee a victory. And we still don't hear the specifics of how Renly is to be killed, so there is indeed nothing to contradict Stannis' later warning about sullying Lightbringer with his brother's blood.

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he actually discusses the logistics of the murder


What specifics were discussed? He even started by saying Renly was "young and strong", which would be a reason not to expect him to just drop dead of natural causes. And when Selyse responds she says Melisandre has "seen him dead", not even "seen him killed".

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Yet he still dies in Storm's End


What? Renly was outside the castle in a tent. Melisandre was quite explicit about how Storm's End made the difference.

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She could have killed Renly in Dragonstone if not.


The idea was to obtain Renly's armies, which Stannis does by going to Storm's End rather than staying on Dragonstone. He doesn't obtain the forces still in the Reach.

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Since when??


Every time Selyse brings up her religion in that conversation he dismisses it. It's only when she mentions Mel's vision that he takes her seriously. And Stannis himself recounts seeing a vision in the flames which he's convinced is real. Stannis even explicitly makes the distinction between religion & Mel when he says "I know little and care less of gods, but the red priestess has power".

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By giving him what he wants? Because Stannis wanted both Renly's army and Edric.


Stannis wanted Edric as "proof" of what Robert's actual offspring should look like. Melisandre wanted him for use as a sacrifice. If Stannis was told upfront he'd have an allotment of two magical asassins available to use at his own discretion, he'd be using them on more important targets than Cortnay Penrose.

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Why? Meli can come up with bs excuses anyway


Melisandre merely spouting BS isn't enough to get Stannis to agree to sacrifice Edric. He has to see Melisandre's claim about the three leeches from her phony ritual vindicated.

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I did not say that Stannis ordered it, I said that that was a way she had to show him it was possible,


She doesn't WANT to. Otherwise Stannis would certainly be giving such orders! Melisandre is not a brood mare or a prostitute, she has her own agency which she dedicates to a messianic prophecy rather than mundane political goals.

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Sure and Cressen has not heard about a battle but about a murder plan.


He hasn't heard about either. We don't hear any specifics there.

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If Stannis were to kill Renly in battle he wouldn't have waited that much wondering about what to do.


What are you referring to?

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He attributes the knowledge about Penrose being murdered to Melisandre, yep the man is indeed either stupid or zealot


Her claim about Renly just got vindicated. Why would it be stupid keep relying on her visions?

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Why would Renly reject the idea?


For the exact reason Tarly gave! It's entirely to the benefit of Stannis, with Renly gaining nothing by it. He certainly was under no obligation to agree to the specific hour picked by his opponent.

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Stannis is openly discussing Renly's murder


Neither Stannis nor Selyse ever describe it that way. As I noted, what they said would even be consistent with natural causes.

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Stannis is fine with Renly dying if that gets him the army


Stannis says as much to Renly himself, though he gives Renly the option of submitting first "For the sake of the mother who bore us both".

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Stannis is told that Meli's "visions" mean fratricide


Cressen uses that word, though he doesn't even know the contents of the vision. As noted, Stannis is explicitly willing to commit fratricide in battle should Renly refuse his terms.

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There is no discussion whatsoever of a battle


Cressen isn't even present for a discussion of what was actually in Mel's vision. And Stannis does specify dawn as time to give his own forces an advantage, and explicitly talks about using Lightbringer on Renly.

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Stannis is sleeping while his men are awake


Devan was given the task of waking Stannis, but was unable to. It's not like Stannis was refusing to get up. The plan was for Stannis to be awake and ahorse.

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Stannis is lying about his involvement in  Renly's death


He speaks openly about seeing Renly's death in his dreams, when he could just say nothing at all. You are assuming your own conclusion in order to count that as a lie in a piece of your argument.

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Stannis says that Penrose seems hale and hearty... like his brother before his death


Stannis himself makes the comparison between the two! He says Melisandre saw his death outside battle, and that's why he he's not going to bother sending a champion to fight him.

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Eddard Stark, Barristan Selmy and all of Westeros


Not Tywin Lannister or LF. Even Renly had no problem sending an assassin after Daenerys, mocking Robert for not doing it earlier. Pycelle at least defended it as the lesser of two evils.

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Except the nights he killed Penrose and Renly, when he did it for lust and murder


We never get any indication he's aware of any connection between sex with Melisandre and those deaths. He knows Melisandre's magic was necessary for Penrose, but as shown by the phony leech ritual, she doesn't tell him how her magic actually works. If prurient reasons can explain him sleeping with her and not producing any shadows, then it can explain him doing so earlier as well.

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She sure was.


I don't recall her giving Davos or Jon a target they were to use the shadow on. Neither of them are even allies of her.

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Davos is not needed to give it birth to it so...


I don't know what comes after that ellipsis.

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Stannis wants Edric just as much as Melisandre did, albeit for different reasons at the beginning. I think this is obvious enough.


Stannis wants Edric, but I wouldn't say "just as much". Mel thinks Edric's sacrifice will wake stone dragons and show everyone Stannis is truly Azor Ahai, thus reversing things even after his defeat at the Blackwater.

Trick to what?


Stannis doesn't specify what "treachery", so possibly seizing Stannis' champion as a hostage, which would work especially well if Cortnay was hoping Stannis would be shamed into doing it himself.

Given how easily both Davos and Cressen come to see the truth behind their words


Again, Cressen calls it "fratricide" which Stannis is explicit about being willing to personally commit.

But it's not explicitly given as a reason to not avenge Ned Stark


Again, Stannis would regard executing Cersei as justice rather than vengeance. And we know he plans on doing that. In the very passage you've cited about Ned relieving Storm's End, Stannis insists Ned did it out of duty rather than love for Stannis... which is the same thing Stannis says he intends to do! He also tells Catelyn he'll return her daugters (dead or alive), while also saying he'll stop Robb's treason after Renly's. He's not going to return them out of any debt of affection for the Starks or in order to make an ally out of them, but because he regards it as just.

There are two parts of the conversation, in one Robb's is mentioned by Stannis in the other he is completely ommited.


Exactly! Cressen wanted Stannis to ally with Robb, which Stannis refused to do because Robb was a "usurper" declaring himself king and taking half the kingdom. Stannis has no more affection for Robb/Ned than either of them have for him. What Stannis intends to do is "justice", not personal favors for his allies. And Stannis promises the same justice to Catelyn, while also refusing any peace with Robb as king.

No, just that he doesn't feel like avenging Ned


Correct, executing Cersei for Ned's death (among others) wouldn't be vengeance in his book.

?


The Faceless Men are completely impersonal. They are supposed to discard their individual identities and kill people without question as a tenet of their religion. Stannis' ideal is impersonal justice & duty.

No, Stannis says it to get brownie points


Stannis is among the people least interested in "brownie points". That's why he refuses to refer to his brother as "beloved". He's practically Westeros' biggest opponent of Social Desirability Bias, hating pretty lies about as much for being pretty as for being lies. Renly talks about all his positive qualities that would make him a good king, but Stannis thinks nobody is going to like him regardless and he'll just insist on justice & duty.

It's only with Cressen when we actually get to see how embittered he is with his brothers


Catelyn got to personally see how Stannis felt about Renly, and he vented his bitterness over Robert to her as well. If you ever even suggested to Stannis that he put his best foot forward, he would probably call that a euphemism for falsehood.

Tarly does tho


Tarly is a feudal bannerman, not an internet commenter.

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