Will Euron's blood magic ritual work?

[Hippocras]

19 hours ago, Lord Varys said:

Euron would never offer himself as ally or partner to Cersei. To even consider that, he would have to know for a certainty that Daenerys is not coming ... and that is something he won't learn tomorrow. Some time will pass for that to happen. Once he learns about Aegon he'll definitely be pissed, but while Tommen and Myrcella are still around he should also not really consider it a viable option to ally with Cersei ... who would want her children to rule, not a King Euron.

In fact, the entire Euron-Cersei alliance only makes sense if Tommen - and perhaps Myrcella as well - is dead, because only then would Cersei consider to ally with a rival pretender for the Iron Throne. She would do everything to protect Tommen while he lives, so he has to be dead.

Aegon is likely fake, and Euron, with his third eye may well know it. Even if not, he suspects. If his goal is to win Dany, then defeating her fake nephew is rather key. So yes, he would ally with Cersei to do that, of course with the idea of disposing of her or betraying her. I don't at all see why you think an alliance with Cersei is out of the question as a temporary strategic move. 

[Lord Varys]

21 minutes ago, Hippocras said:

People don't act out of pity in this story. She may be Lady of the Rock in name, but she has no power there. The same doubts that Kevan had are shared by much of the family. When she named Devan Warden she gave him power over the Rock.

Nope, she gave her cousin Damion Lannister power over the Rock, the guy she named castellan of Casterly Rock. You really have to reference the things that are in the book, and not go with what's in your head. Daven Lannister as Warden of the West is still doing Cersei's bidding in the Riverlands, just as Jaime was until he disappeared.

Cersei's family were concerned about the mistakes she made as Queen Regent, but nobody ever questioned the fact that she was the Lady of Casterly Rock and running the show there. In fact, Kevan wanted her to return home and be the Lady of Casterly Rock and exert the power she had there when he pushed her to hand the regency to him. And after her walk Kevan intended that she return to the Rock eventually to rule there as Lady of Casterly Rock. He wanted her to no longer have a voice in the governance of the Realm, but nobody ever wanted to take her lordship from her ... nor could they, unless they attainted or murdered her.

21 minutes ago, Hippocras said:

There are titles, and there is authority. Until Cersei makes a power shifting move in KL, she has simply no authority to lead anyone, including in the Westerlands. They will not follow her. They were already stripping her of any authority before the Walk. Being a helpless widow does NOT get people to follow you. The Westerlands follow strength. If they did not, and it was all about honour and birthright for them, the Rains of Castamere would not be their representative song.

Cersei has no authority until she has her own Castamere moment and that will be in KL.

I'm sorry, but that's just nonsense. Cersei is not likely to ever regain any authority in KL on her own, anyway, but certainly not only with a couple of Lannister guardsmen, her pet freak, and his monster. That is not coup material.

In addition, the entire city saw her naked and full of shit in the streets. The Kingslanders would never suffer as their ruler ever again, unless forced by superior outside help, i.e. an army taking and holding the city. And there just is no such army around right now. Especially since the Tyrells are still there with about 40,000 men.

You also fail to understand how the mechanics in this world do work. Remember how Catelyn - a helpless woman, just protected by one old man - goaded armed men in an inn to help her arrest the son of Tywin Lannister? She applied to their chivalric honor, the vows those men and their lords had sworn to the Lord of Riverrun, her father, and she stressed how Tyrion had wronged her and her family. Or how Daenerys Targaryen won over a many men without having any real power at all?

If Cersei did something similar in front of the lords and knights of the West - if she told them firsthand how she and her children were wronged and mistreated by evil people, how they murdered Joffrey, Tywin, Kevan (and by then, possibly Tommen and Myrcella as well), how they plotted to destroy her, how they marched her naked through the streets, etc. then this will have a tremendous effect.

To even try to deny that makes no sense.

It makes also no sense to assume that a woman who, according to you, has no authority at home would be able to seize the reins of government in the capital again - which could only work if the people there would view her as a powerful figure in her own right. Meaning as the Lady of Casterly Rock who could count on the support of her loyal bannermen. If nobody expected Cersei could marshal a loyal host of Westermen to threaten KL, the people there would not really fear or even respect her. And if that weren't the case, nobody would follow her.

But then - as I said - Cersei doesn't even have the men for a coup. There is no Lannister army in the capital, no lords or knights or men-at-arms loyal to her, personally. She is down to a few hundred men while the entire city watched her walk of shame. And she stands accused of monstrous crimes in addition to all that.

And if Cersei ever murdered somebody or did some other hideous thing ... then the result would be that people turn against her even more. They would not give in to her unless she had the strength to control the crowds ... which she simply didn't have.

If she were to murder Mace and Margaery and Tarly and the High Septon and a decent portion of the Faith Militant ... then the people loyal to those dead folks would avenge their masters on Cersei. They would not suddenly turn into Cersei sycophants.

[Lord Varys]

34 minutes ago, Hippocras said:

Aegon is likely fake, and Euron, with his third eye may well know it. Even if not, he suspects. If his goal is to win Dany, then defeating her fake nephew is rather key. So yes, he would ally with Cersei to do that, of course with the idea of disposing of her or betraying her. I don't at all see why you think an alliance with Cersei is out of the question as a temporary strategic move. 

It is irrelevant who Aegon actually is ... important is what the Westerosi believe to be true. Stannis also *knew* that Cersei's children weren't Robert's. Did that stop the Lannisters from giving Stannis a good beating? I don't think so.

But the idea that Euron and Cersei could find common ground while King Tommen is still alive and on the Iron Throne just makes no sense. Euron has it already made clear he wants the Iron Throne for himself, meaning both Tommen and Aegon are his enemies, not just Aegon.

The one scenario I could see where Cersei joins Euron while Tommen is still alive is if they have to flee the city when Aegon takes it. But even then Tommen's days would be numbered because Euron would not allow him to live for long.

And to be clear - of course I think that on Euron's side the Cersei thing will, at first, be viewed as a temporary thing. But it will turn out to be lasting and permanent, since it looks as if Euron will become of Dany's big enemies. And in light of that it makes more sense to assume that Cersei offers herself and her armies to Euron rather than the other way around. Because Euron is still going to count on Daenerys coming sooner rather than later. He would not risk his chances to marry the dragon queen by being married to Cersei Lannister at the time Dany shows up. He would not even think about that option unless Cersei suggests this to him.

[Hippocras]

2 hours ago, Lord Varys said:

Kevan intended that she return to the Rock eventually to rule there as Lady of Casterly Rock

He intended her to return to the Rock, yes. Noone said anything about ruling. You accuse me of making stuff up, but there is not the slightest sign anywhere of Cersei being in charge of anything or anyone in the Westerlands. Lady of the Rock is just a title, and Kevan certainly did not intend for her to rule.

But clearly we disagree on this and it seems to be a point that can only be resolved by the next book. It is only relevant here as it relates to Euron. But even there, what Cersei does or does not do has very little bearing on Euron's blood magic efforts in the immediate future so I guess we will leave it there.

 

As for Aegon, the mummer's dragon is no doubt him, yes. But the crowds need not necessarily represent King's Landing. It simply means people are glad to have a possible ruler they feel more comfortable supporting so many will flock to his cause IMO.

[Hippocras]

2 hours ago, Lord Varys said:

It is irrelevant who Aegon actually is ... important is what the Westerosi believe to be true. Stannis also *knew* that Cersei's children weren't Robert's. Did that stop the Lannisters from giving Stannis a good beating? I don't think so.

Yes, it is relevant in the sense that it has influence on how Dany will feel about him. Him being hidden all his life will make people suspicious regardless of course, but that suspicion will lead to inquiries, and for Dany it is then pretty important how true it is.

Because he is fake, fighting him can help Euron win over Dany, whereas if Aegon were genuinely Dany's nephew, then fighting him would be just as likely to make her despise Euron. That is what I was getting at.

[Egged]

All Cersei has to do is win her trial. Her champion is a pious strong white-armored knight who took a vow of silence. Doesn't matter if he's scary. If she wins, in the people's minds it means the Seven have directly intervened to claim her innocence. End of the story. Someone has to be the source of the rumors. Who could it be if not the Tyrells? Checkmate.

Also, remember Cersei is the one who armed the faith militants. Couple that with a victory at her trial, and add to this the coming spooky dragon-queen and her red priests who burn statues of the Seven, and Cersei would find herself in a very good position. Cersei the Blessed.

[Hippocras]

11 minutes ago, Egged said:

All Cersei has to do is win her trial. Her champion is a pious strong white-armored knight who took a vow of silence. Doesn't matter if he's scary. If she wins, in the people's minds it means the Seven have directly intervened to claim her innocence. End of the story. Someone has to be the source of the rumors. Who could it be if not the Tyrells? Checkmate.

Also, remember Cersei is the one who armed the faith militants. Couple that with a victory at her trial, and add to this the coming spooky dragon-queen and her red priests who burn statues of the Seven, and Cersei would find herself in a very good position. Cersei the Blessed.

Possible, but that doesn't deal with the problem of the Faith Millitant. Unless she deals with them too they will continue to undermine her. If she has a trial and wins, the Faith can not really be smeared by that.

Anyway, about Euron.....

[Egged]

Just now, Hippocras said:

Possible, but that doesn't deal with the problem of the Faith Millitant. Unless she deals with them too they will continue to undermine her. If she has a trial and wins, the Faith can not really be smeared by that.

Anyway, about Euron.....

They won't undermine her if she wins her trial. I mean the whole point of the trial is to figure where the Seven stand on the issue. If she wins it, the faith is on her side, there is no smearing, she would be stupid to attack the faith if she wins and they would stupid to attack her if she wins. It settles the whole issue and brings them under her direction against the Tyrells, and they need the protection of the queen against the coming dragon queen and her fanatical red-priests supporters.

So Cersei ends up in a position of power, with Euron having good reasons to ally to her.

[Lord Varys]

2 hours ago, Hippocras said:

He intended her to return to the Rock, yes. Noone said anything about ruling. You accuse me of making stuff up, but there is not the slightest sign anywhere of Cersei being in charge of anything or anyone in the Westerlands. Lady of the Rock is just a title, and Kevan certainly did not intend for her to rule.

Kevan has no power to prevent Cersei from ruling, he has no authority to interfere with the inner workings of House Lannister ... which is run by Cersei since the death of her father, not Kevan.

What Kevan wanted Cersei to do you can read here:

Quote

“The realm. Aye. And House Lannister.” He sipped his wine again. “Very well. I will remain and serve His Grace …”

“Very good,” she started to say, but Ser Kevan raised his voice and bulled right over her.

“… so long as you name me regent as well as Hand and take yourself back to Casterly Rock.”

For half a heartbeat Cersei could only stare at him. “I am the regent,” she reminded him.

“You were. Tywin did not intend that you continue in that role. He told me of his plans to send you back to the Rock and find a new husband for you.”

Cersei could feel her anger rising. “He spoke of such, yes. And I told him it was not my wish to wed again.”

Her uncle was unmoved. “If you are resolved against another marriage, I will not force it on you. As to the other, though … you are the Lady of Casterly Rock now. Your place is there.”

And Cersei does rule in the West even from KL. She makes appointments there, not Kevan who is effectively cut out from any real power by Cersei until the Small Council names him regent after Cersei's arrest.

In the Epilogue, Kevan intends to return Cersei to Casterly Rock after her trial and there we do have an indication that he intended to keep her there, possibly against her will:

Quote

“Whatever Cersei may have done, she is still a daughter of the Rock, of mine own blood. I will not let her die a traitor’s death, but I have made sure to draw her fangs. All her guards have been dismissed and replaced with my own men. In place of her former ladies-in-waiting, she will henceforth be attended by a septa and three novices selected by the High Septon. She is to have no further voice in the governance of the realm, nor in Tommen’s education. I mean to return her to Casterly Rock after the trial and see that she remains there. Let that suffice.”

The rest he left unsaid. Cersei was soiled goods now, her power at an end. Every baker’s boy and beggar in the city had seen her in her shame and every tart and tanner from Flea Bottom to Pisswater Bend had gazed upon her nakedness, their eager eyes crawling over her breasts and belly and woman’s parts. No queen could expect to rule again after that. In gold and silk and emeralds Cersei had been a queen, the next thing to a goddess; naked, she was only human, an aging woman with stretch marks on her belly and teats that had begun to sag … as the shrews in the crowds had been glad to point out to their husbands and lovers. Better to live shamed than die proud, Ser Kevan told himself. “My niece will make no further mischief,” he promised Mace Tyrell. “You have my word on that, my lord.”

How effective that would have been if Kevan had lived we cannot say, but we can be sure that with Kevan dead nobody is going to be able to do that. With Kevan dead, Cersei will be running House Lannister again, and should meet no opposition from her family because they will be outraged over Kevan's murder. Although it seems clear that Kevan's judgment about Cersei's inability to rule ever again in KL are accurate. They would even be accurate if Cersei had thousands of troops in the city ... which she doesn't have. She is surrounded by enemies.

2 hours ago, Hippocras said:

But clearly we disagree on this and it seems to be a point that can only be resolved by the next book. It is only relevant here as it relates to Euron. But even there, what Cersei does or does not do has very little bearing on Euron's blood magic efforts in the immediate future so I guess we will leave it there.

How things are so far is not determined by the next book, but by what has been established so far.

I mean, you could be right that suddenly nobody in the West is going to follow Cersei for this or that reason ... but so far nothing of this sort has been established. Instead, the other thing has been established, namely, that Cersei's authority as Lady of Casterly Rock is accepted.

Of course, she could not exert that authority while she was imprisoned by the Faith and also not while she was under house arrest in the Red Keep while Kevan was still alive. But while the regency has been taken from her, the her lordship remains with her. She just has to act again as Lady of Casterly Rock - to retake the reins of government she would have to stage a coup.

2 hours ago, Hippocras said:

As for Aegon, the mummer's dragon is no doubt him, yes. But the crowds need not necessarily represent King's Landing. It simply means people are glad to have a possible ruler they feel more comfortable supporting so many will flock to his cause IMO.

Aegon would be a poor lie/mummer's dragon/danger to anyone if he couldn't even take the Iron Throne. Without that, he would be a bigger joke than Stannis.

And George has meticulously set up Tommen's government to implode throughout AFfC/ADwD. Everything that happened there did happen so Aegon with a modest number of sellswords plus some houses supporting him can quickly seize KL. Even Euron's attack on the Reach is going to help Aegon's campaign. The idea that the point of all the animosity and conflicts that started after Tywin's is that the status quo ante is going to be restored by Cersei returning to power is pretty much ridiculous. That isn't going to fly.

3 hours ago, Hippocras said:

Yes, it is relevant in the sense that it has influence on how Dany will feel about him. Him being hidden all his life will make people suspicious regardless of course, but that suspicion will lead to inquiries, and for Dany it is then pretty important how true it is.

But for the Westerosi situation it would be irrelevant as well as for Euron himself - he would turn against Aegon in any case, because he is a rival pretender, not because he cares whose son he actually is.

3 hours ago, Hippocras said:

Because he is fake, fighting him can help Euron win over Dany, whereas if Aegon were genuinely Dany's nephew, then fighting him would be just as likely to make her despise Euron. That is what I was getting at.

Euron would have no clue what Daenerys believes about Aegon. In fact, he might target Aegon in part because he would view Aegon as a rival for Dany's hand. The Targaryens marry predominantly within the family, after all.

3 hours ago, Egged said:

All Cersei has to do is win her trial. Her champion is a pious strong white-armored knight who took a vow of silence. Doesn't matter if he's scary. If she wins, in the people's minds it means the Seven have directly intervened to claim her innocence. End of the story. Someone has to be the source of the rumors. Who could it be if not the Tyrells? Checkmate.

Also, remember Cersei is the one who armed the faith militants. Couple that with a victory at her trial, and add to this the coming spooky dragon-queen and her red priests who burn statues of the Seven, and Cersei would find herself in a very good position. Cersei the Blessed.

Sorry, no. For one, the Faith had Cersei walk naked through the city after penance for being an adulterous whore. Her reputation is tarnished no matter how the trial-by-combat goes. If she wins, then her life will be spared, but she is not going to magically regain the power and status that were taken from her - namely, the regency and her reputation of being a beautfiful, desirable woman. That's all gone now ... at least for the Kingslanders who saw her sagging breasts and stretch marks, etc.

Not to mention that regardless the outcome of a trial - be it conventional or a trial-by-combat - dirt will always stick. The Dragonknight also defended Queen Naerys' honor in a trial-by-combat against Ser Morgil ... yet the Blackfyre partisans still believed the story about Daeron Falseborn, did they not? Even a victory in her trial is not going to be that great of an advantage for Cersei.

The idea that the Faith and Cersei could ever make common cause is ridiculous. They imprisoned her, forced her to walk naked through the streets. She could never trust them. Vice versa, the High Septon would be an utter fool to ever trust Cersei considering what he did to her ... and what he knows or believes this woman is capable of.

And, frankly, the idea that this trial-by-combat (if it even takes place) will go the way people expect it is not very likely at all. There has to be a surprise there, like we got with most of the trial-by-combats so far. This trial has been built up for a long time now, starting in the late chapters of AFfC and continuing through ADwD. The idea that it goes the way Qyburn, Kevan, and Cersei expected it to go is like expecting Robb's plan to retake the North is going to work because he said so.

My guess is that Ser Robert is going to win ... but this won't be interpreted by the High Septon as a sign of favor by the Seven because Cersei's champion will be revealed to be an undead Gregor Clegane monstrosity during said trial, causing the Faith to condemn Cersei and King Tommen and all who stand with them as vile and blasphemous sorcerers, in league with the Lord of the Seven Hells. The idea that a zombie monster is going to work magical miracles for Cersei of all people is pretty far-fetched.

I'm not saying she will die in the process of that, but she will be condemned and she will have to run for her life afterwards.

3 hours ago, Egged said:

They won't undermine her if she wins her trial. I mean the whole point of the trial is to figure where the Seven stand on the issue. If she wins it, the faith is on her side, there is no smearing, she would be stupid to attack the faith if she wins and they would stupid to attack her if she wins. It settles the whole issue and brings them under her direction against the Tyrells, and they need the protection of the queen against the coming dragon queen and her fanatical red-priests supporters.

So Cersei ends up in a position of power, with Euron having good reasons to ally to her.

The idea that Euron could ally with a queen running the show in KL jointly with the present High Septon and the Faith Militant is also impossible, by the way. The Ironborn worship the Drowned God and Euron is about to sacrifice septons and septas in his magical ritual near the Arbor. Stories and reports about that will reach the High Septon before Euron can show up in KL.

The idea that the Faith would prefer to work or a make a peace with Cersei rather than the Tyrells also makes little sense (assuming they are not going to declare for Aegon as soon as they hear about him which is much more likely) because the Tyrells have 40,000 men in KL and could destroy the Faith Militant and kill the High Septon if push came to shove ... Cersei lacks that power.

[Egged]

28 minutes ago, Lord Varys said:

Kevan has no power to prevent Cersei from ruling, he has no authority to interfere with the inner workings of House Lannister ... which is run by Cersei since the death of her father, not Kevan.

What Kevan wanted Cersei to do you can read here:

And Cersei does rule in the West even from KL. She makes appointments there, not Kevan who is effectively cut out from any real power by Cersei until the Small Council names him regent after Cersei's arrest.

In the Epilogue, Kevan intends to return Cersei to Casterly Rock after her trial and there we do have an indication that he intended to keep her there, possibly against her will:

How effective that would have been if Kevan had lived we cannot say, but we can be sure that with Kevan dead nobody is going to be able to do that. With Kevan dead, Cersei will be running House Lannister again, and should meet no opposition from her family because they will be outraged over Kevan's murder. Although it seems clear that Kevan's judgment about Cersei's inability to rule ever again in KL are accurate. They would even be accurate if Cersei had thousands of troops in the city ... which she doesn't have. She is surrounded by enemies.

How things are so far is not determined by the next book, but by what has been established so far.

I mean, you could be right that suddenly nobody in the West is going to follow Cersei for this or that reason ... but so far nothing of this sort has been established. Instead, the other thing has been established, namely, that Cersei's authority as Lady of Casterly Rock is accepted.

Of course, she could not exert that authority while she was imprisoned by the Faith and also not while she was under house arrest in the Red Keep while Kevan was still alive. But while the regency has been taken from her, the her lordship remains with her. She just has to act again as Lady of Casterly Rock - to retake the reins of government she would have to stage a coup.

Aegon would be a poor lie/mummer's dragon/danger to anyone if he couldn't even take the Iron Throne. Without that, he would be a bigger joke than Stannis.

And George has meticulously set up Tommen's government to implode throughout AFfC/ADwD. Everything that happened there did happen so Aegon with a modest number of sellswords plus some houses supporting him can quickly seize KL. Even Euron's attack on the Reach is going to help Aegon's campaign. The idea that the point of all the animosity and conflicts that started after Tywin's is that the status quo ante is going to be restored by Cersei returning to power is pretty much ridiculous. That isn't going to fly.

But for the Westerosi situation it would be irrelevant as well as for Euron himself - he would turn against Aegon in any case, because he is a rival pretender, not because he cares whose son he actually is.

Euron would have no clue what Daenerys believes about Aegon. In fact, he might target Aegon in part because he would view Aegon as a rival for Dany's hand. The Targaryens marry predominantly within the family, after all.

Sorry, no. For one, the Faith had Cersei walk naked through the city after penance for being an adulterous whore. Her reputation is tarnished no matter how the trial-by-combat goes. If she wins, then her life will be spared, but she is not going to magically regain the power and status that were taken from her - namely, the regency and her reputation of being a beautfiful, desirable woman. That's all gone now ... at least for the Kingslanders who saw her sagging breasts and stretch marks, etc.

Not to mention that regardless the outcome of a trial - be it conventional or a trial-by-combat - dirt will always stick. The Dragonknight also defended Queen Naerys' honor in a trial-by-combat against Ser Morgil ... yet the Blackfyre partisans still believed the story about Daeron Falseborn, did they not? Even a victory in her trial is not going to be that great of an advantage for Cersei.

The idea that the Faith and Cersei could ever make common cause is ridiculous. They imprisoned her, forced her to walk naked through the streets. She could never trust them. Vice versa, the High Septon would be an utter fool to ever trust Cersei considering what he did to her ... and what he knows or believes this woman is capable of.

And, frankly, the idea that this trial-by-combat (if it even takes place) will go the way people expect it is not very likely at all. There has to be a surprise there, like we got with most of the trial-by-combats so far. This trial has been built up for a long time now, starting in the late chapters of AFfC and continuing through ADwD. The idea that it goes the way Qyburn, Kevan, and Cersei expected it to go is like expecting Robb's plan to retake the North is going to work because he said so.

My guess is that Ser Robert is going to win ... but this won't be interpreted by the High Septon as a sign of favor by the Seven because Cersei's champion will be revealed to be an undead Gregor Clegane monstrosity during said trial, causing the Faith to condemn Cersei and King Tommen and all who stand with them as vile and blasphemous sorcerers, in league with the Lord of the Seven Hells. The idea that a zombie monster is going to work magical miracles for Cersei of all people is pretty far-fetched.

I'm not saying she will die in the process of that, but she will be condemned and she will have to run for her life afterwards.

The idea that Euron could ally with a queen running the show in KL jointly with the present High Septon and the Faith Militant is also impossible, by the way. The Ironborn worship the Drowned God and Euron is about to sacrifice septons and septas in his magical ritual near the Arbor. Stories and reports about that will reach the High Septon before Euron can show up in KL.

The idea that the Faith would prefer to work or a make a peace with Cersei rather than the Tyrells also makes little sense (assuming they are not going to declare for Aegon as soon as they hear about him which is much more likely) because the Tyrells have 40,000 men in KL and could destroy the Faith Militant and kill the High Septon if push came to shove ... Cersei lacks that power.

The fear of Daenerys makes all of that moot. It's all that is needed for the people to rally around "their own" iron hand over "the others", the others they actually fear, not the grumpkins.

[Lord Varys]

4 minutes ago, Egged said:

The fear of Daenerys makes all of that moot. It's all that is needed for the people to rally around "their own" iron hand over "the others", the others they actually fear, not the grumpkins.

Not sure what you mean by that.

[Egged]

1 hour ago, Lord Varys said:

Not sure what you mean by that.

You think the people will want Cersei to go away, that Euron is too spooky for people to support, etc.

But when Daenerys and her army of barbarians and slaves, the sellsword-bedding queen, with the vengeful demon-monkey as hand who killed the king and his own father and uncle, and the slaver as queensguard, and when Daenerys burns down the knights in shining armors as her red priests who burn the statues of the Seven and burn little children to their god say she is the second coming, who will the people come to for protection? What will they want to believe? That she is the queen who will save them from the oh-so-evil Cersei and Euron?

There is no CNN crew filming what Euron is doing. There is no The Lannisters TV Show either. There are only rumors and counter-rumors. Words are wind. The sight of Daenerys and her army and supporters won't be wind, it will be fire and monsters they can see with their own eyes. It's not the grumpkins up north that people fear and that people want to be saved from, it's the others, the real others. Anyone with the power to stop them, to save them, will be supported and cheered for.

Words. Are. Wind.

[Lord Varys]

14 hours ago, Egged said:

You think the people will want Cersei to go away, that Euron is too spooky for people to support, etc.

But when Daenerys and her army of barbarians and slaves, the sellsword-bedding queen, with the vengeful demon-monkey as hand who killed the king and his own father and uncle, and the slaver as queensguard, and when Daenerys burns down the knights in shining armors as her red priests who burn the statues of the Seven and burn little children to their god say she is the second coming, who will the people come to for protection? What will they want to believe? That she is the queen who will save them from the oh-so-evil Cersei and Euron?

There is no CNN crew filming what Euron is doing. There is no The Lannisters TV Show either. There are only rumors and counter-rumors. Words are wind. The sight of Daenerys and her army and supporters won't be wind, it will be fire and monsters they can see with their own eyes. It's not the grumpkins up north that people fear and that people want to be saved from, it's the others, the real others. Anyone with the power to stop them, to save them, will be supported and cheered for.

Words. Are. Wind.

That is a rather weird scenario in light of the fact that the wars of Westeros will continue, and the various pretenders will view Daenerys as a potential ally and tool when she finally arrives ... as the Dornish and the Ironborn are already doing. And by the time Dany finally shows up Euron and Cersei and Aegon and Stannis and whoever else might be still alive at that point will all be bloody tyrants to various degrees.

Some people might fear Daenerys, sure ... but others will view her and the dragons as gifts from the gods, send to help them avenge themselves and destroy their enemies.

And of course the stories of Daenerys will also be just words. People will only see the dragons when they are there ... and it is the same with the Dothraki, etc.

But, in general, the idea that anybody is going to view either Cersei or Euron as a savior or just a leader worthy of respect is ridiculous. They are both set up to be villains whose villainy is rather obvious. Sure, Euron can show his smiling eye for a time, but he is still a murdering psychopath and that shows.

[Hippocras]

12 hours ago, Lord Varys said:

Kevan has no power to prevent Cersei from ruling, he has no authority to interfere with the inner workings of House Lannister ... which is run by Cersei since the death of her father, not Kevan.

People ALWAYS have the power to chose not to be ruled. And they will ALWAYS use that power against those they perceive to be weak. It is how women in positions of power have been denied actual power for all of human existence. In order to have any actual authority over anyone she needs to DO something to make them either FEAR her or WANT to follow her. It is the basic principle of how power works and always has worked.

The walk of shame completely stripped her of ALL authority to lead. She needs to take it back.

[Lord Varys]

3 hours ago, Hippocras said:

People ALWAYS have the power to chose not to be ruled. And they will ALWAYS use that power against those they perceive to be weak. It is how women in positions of power have been denied actual power for all of human existence. In order to have any actual authority over anyone she needs to DO something to make them either FEAR her or WANT to follow her. It is the basic principle of how power works and always has worked.

The walk of shame completely stripped her of ALL authority to lead. She needs to take it back.

That is a non-argument. For it to be an argument you would need evidence in the text that the Westermen no longer want to be ruled by Cersei. That Cersei does have actual rivals in House Lannister and, perhaps, even among the other Lords of the West for lordship of Casterly Rock and/or the effective execution of the power that comes with that title.

But there is nothing of that sort in the books. Nothing at all.

Cersei's walk of shame destroyed her reputation and status as queen (regent). She is never going to regain authority over the people who watched her naked in the mud - unless she has outside support and/or a strong army of people who are, for some reason, loyal to her. But if you go back to ADwD then no Lannister guardsmen or Westermen were actually allowed to watch this. Kevan kept the Lannister men away from the entire charade, and Cersei and Tommen themselves sent the Lannister armies back home in AFfC ... and where both cheered genuinely back then.

This cheering - which Jaime just remembers, we never see it - is one of those subtle clues about what's going to happen if Cersei is mistreated by her enemies and her children are killed and she is able to call on their help. Cersei was their queen and is their lady, and her sons were/are their kings. That is a very strong bond in this setting.

The idea that Cersei would have any trouble exploiting such bonds just doesn't make any sense. If George wanted to destroy her bond with the West then the Westermen would have all been in KL when she had to do her walk ... and they would have watched and laughed at her like the Kingslanders did.

But that didn't happen. And it didn't happen for a reason.

[Megorova]

On 3/28/2021 at 2:05 AM, Falcon2909 said:

Pretty sure Euron's soldiers did almost all of the killing for the blood. Dany killed Drogo with her own hands. If she had asked Jorah or someone I dont know if her ritual would have worked  to hatch dragons.

Dany killed Drogo herself, though the horse, that was one of the three sacrifices, wasn't killed by Dany -

"In the center of the square, Aggo fed him a withered apple and dropped him in an instant with an axe blow between the eyes. ... Over the carcass of the horse, they built a platform of hewn logs... And there came a second crack, loud and sharp as thunder, and the smoke stirred and whirled around her and the pyre shifted, the logs exploding as the fire touched their secret hearts."

Three sacrifices - Mirri Maz Duur for Viseryon, the horse for Rhaegal, Drogo for Drogon. Out of those three only one was killed by Dany's own hands.

"“It is not enough to kill a horse,” she told Dany. “By itself, the blood is nothing. You do not have the words to make a spell, nor the wisdom to find them. Do you think bloodmagic is a game for children? You call me maegi as if it were a curse, but all it means is wise. You are a child, with a child’s ignorance."

Euron knows the words, he is one of Shiera Seastar's ex-apprentices, same as Mirri Maz Duur. So his ritual will definitely work.

Also, could be that he is harvesting all that blood not for a ritual. The thing is, if that much blood will be spilled into the sea, then it will attract all sorts of predators from the deep seas. The krackens, who are carnivores, will come lured by blood, even if there will be nothing magical involved. Could be that Euron is intending to use magic not to summon krakens, but to make his ships invisible to them. So the krakens will come attracted by blood in the water, and they will attack whatever other ships will be nearby, while not noticing Euron's ships that will be "invisible" to them, concealed under the veil of protective magic casted by Euron. And that ritual ("don't see me, I'm not here" kind of thing) won't require any sacrifices.

[Egged]

4 hours ago, Megorova said:

Dany killed Drogo herself, though the horse, that was one of the three sacrifices, wasn't killed by Dany -

"In the center of the square, Aggo fed him a withered apple and dropped him in an instant with an axe blow between the eyes. ... Over the carcass of the horse, they built a platform of hewn logs... And there came a second crack, loud and sharp as thunder, and the smoke stirred and whirled around her and the pyre shifted, the logs exploding as the fire touched their secret hearts."

Three sacrifices - Mirri Maz Duur for Viseryon, the horse for Rhaegal, Drogo for Drogon. Out of those three only one was killed by Dany's own hands.

"“It is not enough to kill a horse,” she told Dany. “By itself, the blood is nothing. You do not have the words to make a spell, nor the wisdom to find them. Do you think bloodmagic is a game for children? You call me maegi as if it were a curse, but all it means is wise. You are a child, with a child’s ignorance."

Euron knows the words, he is one of Shiera Seastar's ex-apprentices, same as Mirri Maz Duur. So his ritual will definitely work.

Also, could be that he is harvesting all that blood not for a ritual. The thing is, if that much blood will be spilled into the sea, then it will attract all sorts of predators from the deep seas. The krackens, who are carnivores, will come lured by blood, even if there will be nothing magical involved. Could be that Euron is intending to use magic not to summon krakens, but to make his ships invisible to them. So the krakens will come attracted by blood in the water, and they will attack whatever other ships will be nearby, while not noticing Euron's ships that will be "invisible" to them, concealed under the veil of protective magic casted by Euron. And that ritual ("don't see me, I'm not here" kind of thing) won't require any sacrifices.

Or the krakens will come and destroy his ships because Lovecraftian demons don't care who calls on them. Thankfully, Euron's armor isn't heavy

[Megorova]

47 minutes ago, Egged said:

Or the krakens will come and destroy his ships because Lovecraftian demons don't care who calls on them. Thankfully, Euron's armor isn't heavy

Euron will drown, while wearing that armor, and then it will be washed up (sans Euron) near Hardhome, when Jon will be there saving the Wildlings from the Others. Jon did saw himself in that armor in one of his dragon-dreams. So there's that.

[Egged]

4 hours ago, Megorova said:

Euron will drown, while wearing that armor, and then it will be washed up (sans Euron) near Hardhome, when Jon will be there saving the Wildlings from the Others. Jon did saw himself in that armor in one of his dragon-dreams. So there's that.

The armor is light, not sure if as light as a feather.

I have to wonder, are we sure it's not Rhaegar's armor? Have both been described to rule that out? I didn't read the TWoW chapters.

[Megorova]

11 hours ago, Egged said:

I have to wonder, are we sure it's not Rhaegar's armor?

Sure. Because Euron's black armor is made from Valyrian Steel, and Rhaegar's armor, even though it was also black-colored like Euron's, wasn't VS. Rhaegar's armor got dented and crushed by Robert's war-hammer. If he was wearing VS-armor, then he wouldn't have died. And Jon's black-ice armor (in his dream in ADWD) was also VS, thus neither Jon's dream-armor nor Euron's armor aren't Rhaegar's.