How powerful are Dorne and House Martell?

[frenin]

1 hour ago, John Suburbs said:

I think I'm agreeing with you, but I can't really tell. Dorne cannot raise 50k, and Doran wouldn't be fretting over this unless the actual number was significantly lower. So I put it at 30k tops. If this is roughly equal to what the north and the Vale can raise, then this would put the north at the same level it had 300 years ago. So either Torrhen Stark had a bumper crop of soldiers that year, or the north's population has not expanded all that much over the years. But there's no real way to be sure I guess.

I find the latter impossible to believe, neither the Vale is so thinly peopled nor it makes sense that the North, counting with a city, can¡t really raise more men. Especially when we know that the North's population did raise significantly.

 

 

1 hour ago, John Suburbs said:

Whent and Hightower are both on the KG and Jaime, Ned and others have great respect for them. I think it's safe to assume that they are no slouches in battle.

About them being knightly, Jaime himself speaks of him when in his prime and he has little to say about Whent.

Not do i remember saying they were ever slouch in battle.

 

 

1 hour ago, John Suburbs said:

Yes, there is no reason to think Robert defeated either Selmy or Darry, which suggests they were not protecting Rhaegar but out on the battlefield, most likely leading the center and left wings because Martell had the right and these are the only three notable knights in Rhaegar's army.

Or that they were taken out by other soldiers at some point of the battle. Robert does not have to personally take them out. Martell is the only one we're actually told was leading anything.

These are the only knights we know about who fought on the battle.

 

 

1 hour ago, John Suburbs said:

Yes, lance. Rhaegar was an excellent jouster, having toppled Selmy, Dayne, Steffon Baratheon and other notables. Jousting is done on horseback with a lance. At the Trident, it is more than likely that they would have come at each other with lances first, then drawn sword and mace when those broke.

? This is why i dislike this arguments.

Lances are mainly used in the initial charge and that's about it. 

But then again,  if you want to believe that.

 

 

2 hours ago, John Suburbs said:

Well, for whatever reason, Rhaegar crossed the Trident so that the river was at his back. If his vets tried to dissuade him from this they were ignored. It would be hard to ignore Gerold Hightower.

Because...

 

 

2 hours ago, John Suburbs said:

Yes, and how do you suppose Ned found this out if only Rhaegar and the three KG are aware of Lyanna's location? Who else would he have told, and why? And she is still deep in loyalist territory in absolutely no danger, save for maybe a passing gang of brigands. So why the heavy guard?

Well, i believe that those three were not the only ones who knew. She is in Martell territory , who are pissed at Rhaegar.

Heavy guard?? There were literally three dudes. 

 

 

2 hours ago, John Suburbs said:

Who is "getting wind of her location" and how? Why would anyone know that she is in this bleak tower out in the middle of nowhere. It anything, the KG presence there would be what tipped people off that this was her location. That's probably how Ned tracked her down. Three KG doing nothing out in the sticks while the realm is at war and the ruling family is being killed is highly suspicious, no?

We don't even know if they were disguised... We don't know how Ned tracked them down.

 

 

2 hours ago, John Suburbs said:

Nobody leads a host to war thinking there is no hope and that they are going to die. Nobody promises to make changes only after they die in battle. He doesn't know he will return. He is reassuring Jaime that he will and will make things right. There is nothing else he can do in that conversation. This is hardly a sign of delusion on Rhaegar's part.

 

- There is thinking there is hope and being certain you're going to win and survive.

- People who believe they might die in battle do not promise changes when they return, they do if they return.

- I do not remember having called him delusional.

[Northern light]

When I read this topic it's like time has stood still......

[John Suburbs]

On 4/2/2021 at 2:20 PM, Jaenara Belarys said:

I came up with that assessment from just logic, just telling you, not information. I know that the Reach has the highest population in all seven or eight provinces, has quite a few noble houses, which means light horse, heavy horse, infantry, archers etc. 

 I agree, the Reach probably didn't, because they were occupied with the siege of Storm's End. But the fact that the Reach can marshal multiple, massive armies just illustrates that Mace Tyrell is a fool. He should've split his forces, kept the Redwyne galleys there, but send off half his army to put down the rebels using whatever force needed.

I don't think that was Mace's call to make. Aerys gathered that army and put Rhaegar in charge. I don't think he wanted too much of the Reach in that mix for two reasons:

1) Dorne and the Reach don't mix. Having substantial numbers of both might have led to problems before they even got to the Trident, and;

2) Aerys cannot trust Mace because he has no leverage over him. If he was holding a Tyrell like he was holding Elia, it might have been different. But he doesn't want Mace nearby with a huge army any more than he didn't want Tywin.

 

[John Suburbs]

On 4/2/2021 at 3:21 PM, frenin said:

I find the latter impossible to believe, neither the Vale is so thinly peopled nor it makes sense that the North, counting with a city, can¡t really raise more men. Especially when we know that the North's population did raise significantly.

 

 

About them being knightly, Jaime himself speaks of him when in his prime and he has little to say about Whent.

Not do i remember saying they were ever slouch in battle.

 

 

Or that they were taken out by other soldiers at some point of the battle. Robert does not have to personally take them out. Martell is the only one we're actually told was leading anything.

These are the only knights we know about who fought on the battle.

 

 

? This is why i dislike this arguments.

Lances are mainly used in the initial charge and that's about it. 

But then again,  if you want to believe that.

 

 

Because...

 

 

Well, i believe that those three were not the only ones who knew. She is in Martell territory , who are pissed at Rhaegar.

Heavy guard?? There were literally three dudes. 

 

 

We don't even know if they were disguised... We don't know how Ned tracked them down.

 

 

 

- There is thinking there is hope and being certain you're going to win and survive.

- People who believe they might die in battle do not promise changes when they return, they do if they return.

- I do not remember having called him delusional.

Did the north gain significant population? I haven't seen a source for that. But Dorne's potential army must be significantly south of 50k, or else Doran would not be so worried about having to maintain this lie for so long. If it was 40 or 45k, that's pretty close to 50k as makes no matter, no?

Aerys' KG was considered to be among the best, most likely because it was largely compiled by Tywin, not Aerys. The presence of the White Bull, Arthur Dayne, Lewyn Martell, Selmy would make it unlikely that they would would accompanied by losers like on Robert's KG. Whent may not have the renown of an Arthur Dayne or a Gerold Hightower, but you can bet he was a worthy knight and would have made a significant contribution at the Trident had he been there.

Like I said, Selmy and Darry were probably leading the center and left (because if there names of higher renown they would be mentioned), while Robert was leading the royalist center, most likely. So no, he would not have to fight past either of them to get to Rhaegar. But if Whent, Hightower and Dayne were with Rhaegar, they (or at least one, Dayne probably) would most likely be used as his personal guard. In that case, Robert would have to fight past them to get to Rhaegar. That's what personal guards are for.

The lance is Rhaegar's best weapon. He jousts, but avoids melees. He would have been a fool to confront Robert without a lance, only drawing his sword when the lance broke.

Because Gerald Hightower was an experienced battle commander with the clout to speak the plain truth to Rheagar: putting the river at your back is bad strategy.

Why would Rhaegar want anyone to know of Lyanna's whereabouts, least of all the Martells? Yes, heavy guard. Nearly half the Kingsguard who should be either in KL guarding their king or on the Trident fighting for their crown prince. JonCon and a dozen soldiers would have been more than enough to protect her out in the middle of nowhere deep in loyalist territory.

For what it's worth, in Ned's fever dream they are not disguised:

Quote

They waited before the round tower, the red mountains of Dorne at their backs, their white cloaks blowing in the wind. And these were no shadows; their faces burned clear, even now. Ser Arthur Dayne, the Sword of the Morning, had a smile on his lips. The hilt of the greatsword Dawn poked up over his right shoulder. Ser Oswell Whent was on one knee, sharpening his blade with a whetstone. Across his white-enameled helm, the black bat of his House spread its wings. Between them stood fierce old Ser Gerold Hightower, the White Bull, Lord Commander of the Kingsguard. 

People who promise change when they return don't start out by saying it will happen after they die in battle. He would have to be delusional if he did not think that he might die. All Rhaegar is doing here is reassuring Jaime that all will be well, and if all does not turn out well, then he'll be dead anyway.

[frenin]

44 minutes ago, John Suburbs said:

Did the north gain significant population? I haven't seen a source for that. But Dorne's potential army must be significantly south of 50k, or else Doran would not be so worried about having to maintain this lie for so long. If it was 40 or 45k, that's pretty close to 50k as makes no matter, no?

Yes, especially during Jaeharys's reign. 

 

Quote

Archmaesters can and do quibble about the numbers, but most agree that the population of Westeros north of Dorne doubled during the Conciliator’s reign, whilst the population of King’s Landing increased fourfold. Lannisport, Gulltown, Duskendale, and White Harbor grew as well, though not to the same extent.

This is not a revolutionary concept, with more peace  there is more grow.

 

51 minutes ago, John Suburbs said:

Aerys' KG was considered to be among the best,

Great sure but enough to change the tide of a war?  They were not god among men.

 

52 minutes ago, John Suburbs said:

The presence of the White Bull, Arthur Dayne, Lewyn Martell, Selmy would make it unlikely that they would would accompanied by losers like on Robert's KG. Whent may not have the renown of an Arthur Dayne or a Gerold Hightower, but you can bet he was a worthy knight and would have made a significant contribution at the Trident had he been there.

• If you say so.
• He would have killed several men before being killed, or he would have been killed right away who knows, whether that would have been enough to make a "significant contribution" however is pure wishful thinking.

 

56 minutes ago, John Suburbs said:

Like I said, Selmy and Darry were probably leading the center and left (because if there names of higher renown they would be mentioned)

The only thing we know about Darry is that he was a Kingsguard, not that his name on his own had any type of renown. We literaly know about 4 knights that fought for the loyalists on the Trident. Rhaegar, Barri, Lewyn Martell and Darry... We don't know much.

 

59 minutes ago, John Suburbs said:

while Robert was leading the royalist center, most likely.

You're assuming your own argument as correct to make a point. 

 

 

1 hour ago, John Suburbs said:

The lance is Rhaegar's best weapon. He jousts, but avoids melees. He would have been a fool to confront Robert without a lance, only drawing his sword when the lance broke.

That we don't know.  You know that right?

We don't even know if he had a lance, we know nothing,  You're simply telling me what you wish had happened.

 

1 hour ago, John Suburbs said:

Because Gerald Hightower was an experienced battle commander with the clout to speak the plain truth to Rheagar: putting the river at your back is bad strategy.

If Rhaegar was making a mistake any veteran would have told him so. The idea that Rhaegar would have taken other step is more wishful thinking. So many ifs...

 

 

1 hour ago, John Suburbs said:

Why would Rhaegar want anyone to know of Lyanna's whereabouts,

That he didn't want something from happening is very different from him being able to stop it.

 

1 hour ago, John Suburbs said:

Yes, heavy guard.

3 men are not heavy guard. Unless they are supposed to be demi gods,  they are not.

 

1 hour ago, John Suburbs said:

Yes, heavy guard.

In Ned's dream they are waiting for him.

 

1 hour ago, John Suburbs said:

People who promise change when they return don't start out by saying it will happen after they die in battle. He would have to be delusional if he did not think that he might die. All Rhaegar is doing here is reassuring Jaime that all will be well, and if all does not turn out well, then he'll be dead anyway.

So, he is saying that he'll be back?

[John Suburbs]

2 hours ago, frenin said:

Yes, especially during Jaeharys's reign. 

 

This is not a revolutionary concept, with more peace  there is more grow.

 

Great sure but enough to change the tide of a war?  They were not god among men.

 

• If you say so.
• He would have killed several men before being killed, or he would have been killed right away who knows, whether that would have been enough to make a "significant contribution" however is pure wishful thinking.

 

The only thing we know about Darry is that he was a Kingsguard, not that his name on his own had any type of renown. We literaly know about 4 knights that fought for the loyalists on the Trident. Rhaegar, Barri, Lewyn Martell and Darry... We don't know much.

 

You're assuming your own argument as correct to make a point. 

 

 

That we don't know.  You know that right?

We don't even know if he had a lance, we know nothing,  You're simply telling me what you wish had happened.

 

If Rhaegar was making a mistake any veteran would have told him so. The idea that Rhaegar would have taken other step is more wishful thinking. So many ifs...

 

 

That he didn't want something from happening is very different from him being able to stop it.

 

3 men are not heavy guard. Unless they are supposed to be demi gods,  they are not.

 

 

In Ned's dream they are waiting for him.

 

So, he is saying that he'll be back?

Can't find any reference to that. King's Landing grew in population, but I don't see anything about the north. Peacetime would bring population growth in the south (and it's not like it was all peace for the last 300 years), but the north is different. Long brutal winters would tend to keep a check on their populations. So if you have actual text, please share.

Knights of their caliber most certainly could have turned the tide in this battle. It was fought to a draw and only resulted in a rebel victory when one man defeated another. That defeat might not have come if any one of these knights squared up against Robert first. This could have made all the difference.

Knights in full armor are not usually dispatched after killing only a few men. They are like the medieval tanks of the battlefield: heavily armored, extremely fast, and with the most powerful weapons. Each of them could have taken out dozens before they were even unhorsed, then dozens more on foot. The only things they need to fear is exhaustion or another heavily armed knight. So of course there is no guarantee that they would have saved the day, but since they were completely unnecessary at the ToJ, it was incredibly foolish to not bring them -- if, in fact, that was really Rhaegar's decision.

Darry would not be in the KG with other such highly skilled men if he did not have some chops. He might not be the greatest, but he is certainly worthy of the appointment:

Quote

"I learned from the White Bull and Barristan the Bold. I learned from Ser Arthur Dayne, the Sword of the Morning, who could have slain all five of you with his left hand while he was taking a piss with the right. I learned from Prince Lewyn of Dorne and Ser Oswell Whent and Ser Jonothor Darry, good men every one."

  -- Jaime Lannister

So you're saying the Robert Baratheon commanded from the rear, like Tywin? Sorry, I can't see him not joining this battle from the start. That's just the kind of man he was.

I'm telling you what is most likely to have happened. Knights always enter the battle with lances. Why bother having them if they're not used in war? And why would the text differentiate between a tourney lance and a battle lance? Rhaegar was best with his lance but largely untested with a sword. It is just logical that he would start with a lance. It's what knights do. The text also doesn't mention if Rhaegar had small clothes on, but we can assume that he did.

Only someone with the gravitas of Lord Commander of the Kingsguard, storied battle commander from the ninepenny Kings war and a towering reputation could be frank with the Prince of Dragonstone. No one else there has the experience or the authority to argue with him, just like no one but Hightower can be sent to order the prince back to the Red Keep.

You're saying that all these many people know where Lyanna is. How, unless Rhaegar told them? The only way would be if someone were to start talking about the three KG at this bleak empty tower out in the middle of nowhere while the prince and the king and the whole realm are being torn apart. So if anything, their presence at the tower made Lyanna less safe, not more.

She didn't need heavy guard, that's the point. Where is the threat that requires such a response? No armies are coming for her, no other knights, no men at arms -- nobody knows she's there. Maybe a random band of brigands might happen by, that's about it. A score of guardsmen and a trusted commander is all that was necessary. Nobody would think twice about a bunch of guards at a military post in a time of war, but nearly half the KG? That's something to talk about.

So? They are waiting for him. They only where their whites when they think trouble is coming? Otherwise they wear boiled leather and iron helms? They are the KG, this is there uniform. This is what they are wearing. For someone who says we can't count of Rhaegar using his best weapon in a battle for his life, it seems a little incongruous to say that the KG would not be wearing their uniforms.

Of course he is. How on earth could he promise that changes will be made if he says he's going to die first? 

 

 

[frenin]

17 minutes ago, John Suburbs said:

Can't find any reference to that. King's Landing grew in population, but I don't see anything about the north. Peacetime would bring population growth in the south (and it's not like it was all peace for the last 300 years), but the north is different. Long brutal winters would tend to keep a check on their populations. So if you have actual text, please share.

I have literally given you the quote, the population north of Dorne doubled its size and White Harbour grew as well tho not at the same rate as King's Landing.

I don't remember any long brutal winters keeping in check the population tho.

 

 

19 minutes ago, John Suburbs said:

Knights of their caliber most certainly could have turned the tide in this battle. It was fought to a draw and only resulted in a rebel victory when one man defeated another. That defeat might not have come if any one of these knights squared up against Robert first. This could have made all the difference.

Except they didn't. Barristan was there, nothing, Lewyn?? A living corpse by the time Corbray finds him, we don't even know how Darry fied except that he was cut down, we don't even know who did, it's inmaterial.

That's how your kingsguard went down, unceremoniously, the idea that the other would have turned the tide is a nice what if. But just that. 

 

 

24 minutes ago, John Suburbs said:

Knights in full armor are not usually dispatched after killing only a few men. They are like the medieval tanks of the battlefield: heavily armored, extremely fast, and with the most powerful weapons. Each of them could have taken out dozens before they were even unhorsed, then dozens more on foot. The only things they need to fear is exhaustion or another heavily armed knight. So of course there is no guarantee that they would have saved the day, but since they were completely unnecessary at the ToJ, it was incredibly foolish to not bring them -- if, in fact, that was really Rhaegar's decision.

Until they are. This is war not science, an astray arrow, a lucky day from the foe, your horse trampling you... Each of themcould have taken dozens... or not.

 

26 minutes ago, John Suburbs said:

Knights in full armor are not usually dispatched after killing only a few men. They are like the medieval tanks of the battlefield: heavily armored, extremely fast, and with the most powerful weapons. Each of them could have taken out dozens before they were even unhorsed, then dozens more on foot. The only things they need to fear is exhaustion or another heavily armed knight. So of course there is no guarantee that they would have saved the day, but since they were completely unnecessary at the ToJ, it was incredibly foolish to not bring them -- if, in fact, that was really Rhaegar's decision.

We have nothing on him and Whent that's how it is.  He was surely a more than capable knight...

Do you realize that while he hypes up Hightower and Dayne... He just says the name of the others?? 

 

 

33 minutes ago, John Suburbs said:

So you're saying the Robert Baratheon commanded from the rear, like Tywin? Sorry, I can't see him not joining this battle from the start. That's just the kind of man he was.

Not commanding from the rear=/ especifically commanding the center.

 

 

34 minutes ago, John Suburbs said:

I'm telling you what is most likely to have happened. Knights always enter the battle with lances. Why bother having them if they're not used in war? And why would the text differentiate between a tourney lance and a battle lance? Rhaegar was best with his lance but largely untested with a sword. It is just logical that he would start with a lance. It's what knights do. The text also doesn't mention if Rhaegar had small clothes on, but we can assume that he did.

You're telling me what you wish would have happened. I find no reason to believe it's likely other than you wanting it to be.

Lances are used for initial charges. One thing is clothes the other is a weapon we're never told he even used on the Trident.

 

36 minutes ago, John Suburbs said:

Only someone with the gravitas of Lord Commander of the Kingsguard, storied battle commander from the ninepenny Kings war and a towering reputation could be frank with the Prince of Dragonstone. No one else there has the experience or the authority to argue with him, just like no one but Hightower can be sent to order the prince back to the Red Keep.

Only?? Based on... 

A vet is a vet and people are unlikely to die out of a foolishness. 

 

 

38 minutes ago, John Suburbs said:

You're saying that all these many people know where Lyanna is. How, unless Rhaegar told them? The only way would be if someone were to start talking about the three KG at this bleak empty tower out in the middle of nowhere while the prince and the king and the whole realm are being torn apart. So if anything, their presence at the tower made Lyanna less safe, not more.

I'm not saying how many people knew about it, I'm stating that some certainly did, since Ned figured it out.

Why would it be the only way?? You're assuming your own conclusions.

 

 

39 minutes ago, John Suburbs said:

She didn't need heavy guard, that's the point. Where is the threat that requires such a response? No armies are coming for her, no other knights, no men at arms -- nobody knows she's there. Maybe a random band of brigands might happen by, that's about it. A score of guardsmen and a trusted commander is all that was necessary. Nobody would think twice about a bunch of guards at a military post in a time of war, but nearly half the KG? That's something to talk about.

She didn't have it. She had three men with her. That's the literal opposite of heavy guard.

Again, some did know where she was. Else, Ned would have never found them.

Unless the KG wore their white armour and were just parading around,  it's pretty much impossible. Barristan is as famous as any man in Westeros and the only thing he needed to do to go incognito in a city he has live in for ¿40? years was simply taking his armour off.

 

 

50 minutes ago, John Suburbs said:

So? They are waiting for him. They only where their whites when they think trouble is coming? Otherwise they wear boiled leather and iron helms? They are the KG, this is there uniform. This is what they are wearing. For someone who says we can't count of Rhaegar using his best weapon in a battle for his life, it seems a little incongruous to say that the KG would not be wearing their uniforms.

They wore their uniforms for battle, they were about to die and they sure as hell wanted to go put with fanfarre.

Arys Oakheart does not wear his uniform in Dorne precisely because it's dangerous... They are incognito in Dorne and the Dornish are realy pissed about the whole fiasco... While would they push their luck?

 

52 minutes ago, John Suburbs said:

Of course he is. How on earth could he promise that changes will be made if he says he's going to die first? 

Well duh. That's the point. He thought he was coming back.

 

[John Suburbs]

On 4/5/2021 at 5:18 PM, frenin said:

I have literally given you the quote, the population north of Dorne doubled its size and White Harbour grew as well tho not at the same rate as King's Landing.

I don't remember any long brutal winters keeping in check the population tho.

 

 

Except they didn't. Barristan was there, nothing, Lewyn?? A living corpse by the time Corbray finds him, we don't even know how Darry fied except that he was cut down, we don't even know who did, it's inmaterial.

That's how your kingsguard went down, unceremoniously, the idea that the other would have turned the tide is a nice what if. But just that. 

 

 

Until they are. This is war not science, an astray arrow, a lucky day from the foe, your horse trampling you... Each of themcould have taken dozens... or not.

 

 

We have nothing on him and Whent that's how it is.  He was surely a more than capable knight...

Do you realize that while he hypes up Hightower and Dayne... He just says the name of the others?? 

 

 

Not commanding from the rear=/ especifically commanding the center.

 

 

You're telling me what you wish would have happened. I find no reason to believe it's likely other than you wanting it to be.

Lances are used for initial charges. One thing is clothes the other is a weapon we're never told he even used on the Trident.

 

Only?? Based on... 

A vet is a vet and people are unlikely to die out of a foolishness. 

 

 

I'm not saying how many people knew about it, I'm stating that some certainly did, since Ned figured it out.

Why would it be the only way?? You're assuming your own conclusions.

 

 

She didn't have it. She had three men with her. That's the literal opposite of heavy guard.

Again, some did know where she was. Else, Ned would have never found them.

Unless the KG wore their white armour and were just parading around,  it's pretty much impossible. Barristan is as famous as any man in Westeros and the only thing he needed to do to go incognito in a city he has live in for ¿40? years was simply taking his armour off.

 

 

They wore their uniforms for battle, they were about to die and they sure as hell wanted to go put with fanfarre.

Arys Oakheart does not wear his uniform in Dorne precisely because it's dangerous... They are incognito in Dorne and the Dornish are realy pissed about the whole fiasco... While would they push their luck?

 

Well duh. That's the point. He thought he was coming back.

 

OK, but this sets up a conundrum. If the north and the Vale could field 50k, and Dorne can raise an equal amount, why is Doran so afraid that people will learn that his levies are substantially lower than 50k?

 

Barry, Darry and Lewyn contributed mightily to the battle, otherwise it would have been a rout from the start. The north had knights, or the the equivalent, as well.

Yes, war is not science, but there is no way you can argue that three of the top fighters in the kingdom would not have been able to turn the tide in a battle that literally came down to one swing of a hammer.

Well wherever Robert was, he was out in front shouting orders with his booming voice. Arryn had the left, we don't know who was leading the right, but Robert is the leader of this army, so it's only a logical assumption that he would be in the center.

I'm telling you what is most likely to have happened. If his best weapon is his lance, and knights always enter the battle on horseback with lances, then it stands to reason that Rhaegar would begin with his lance.

Yes, only Gerold. He was the one who took command of the king's forces in the 9PK war. He is lord commander of the KG. He is not just a veteran, but a seasoned veteran who has spent a lifetime in the upper echelons of command. A sergeant is a veteran just like a general, but you don't see any sergeants sitting on the Joint Chiefs advising the president.

OK, so these "not many" people who knew about it are a threat to Lyanna how? The only way Ned could have found them through word of mouth is if people started talking about the 3 KG at this lonely old tower. Their presence is a risk to Lyanna, not an asset.

Half the KG is heavy guard. These are among the most well-armed, well-armored, well-skilled warriors in the world, one of which has a magic sword. Again, their presence is dangerous if anything.

Lol, for someone who says we can't assume Rhaegar fought with a lance because the book doesn't say he did is a bit hypocritical to now say that the KG were in disguise when the book says they were wearing their whites.

Yes, he thought he was coming back. That's a far cry from him knowing without doubt that he was coming back. 

 

 

[frenin]

On 4/7/2021 at 5:31 PM, John Suburbs said:

OK, but this sets up a conundrum. If the north and the Vale could field 50k, and Dorne can raise an equal amount, why is Doran so afraid that people will learn that his levies are substantially lower than 50k?

 

Barry, Darry and Lewyn contributed mightily to the battle, otherwise it would have been a rout from the start. The north had knights, or the the equivalent, as well.

Yes, war is not science, but there is no way you can argue that three of the top fighters in the kingdom would not have been able to turn the tide in a battle that literally came down to one swing of a hammer.

Well wherever Robert was, he was out in front shouting orders with his booming voice. Arryn had the left, we don't know who was leading the right, but Robert is the leader of this army, so it's only a logical assumption that he would be in the center.

I'm telling you what is most likely to have happened. If his best weapon is his lance, and knights always enter the battle on horseback with lances, then it stands to reason that Rhaegar would begin with his lance.

Yes, only Gerold. He was the one who took command of the king's forces in the 9PK war. He is lord commander of the KG. He is not just a veteran, but a seasoned veteran who has spent a lifetime in the upper echelons of command. A sergeant is a veteran just like a general, but you don't see any sergeants sitting on the Joint Chiefs advising the president.

OK, so these "not many" people who knew about it are a threat to Lyanna how? The only way Ned could have found them through word of mouth is if people started talking about the 3 KG at this lonely old tower. Their presence is a risk to Lyanna, not an asset.

Half the KG is heavy guard. These are among the most well-armed, well-armored, well-skilled warriors in the world, one of which has a magic sword. Again, their presence is dangerous if anything.

Lol, for someone who says we can't assume Rhaegar fought with a lance because the book doesn't say he did is a bit hypocritical to now say that the KG were in disguise when the book says they were wearing their whites.

Yes, he thought he was coming back. That's a far cry from him knowing without doubt that he was coming back. 

 

 

 

1) Yeah, I don't know about that. I'm just putting up the numbers.  Martin's words are an estimate, he could've changed his mind later and rather than the numbers of the North and Dorne weren't similar. Yet, still the fact that a generation after the First Dornish War the first vulture King could gather an army 30k strong without any serious commitment from the most powerful Houses in Dorne points out that either Doran is lying or Martin changed his mind.

 

 

2) Lewyn's levies contributed mightily to the war effort, that's for sure. The only thing that we know about Barri is that he killed several men before being taken out himself and we don't even know how Darry perfomed. It's inmaterial at the end, they were all there and they were all taken out, the rebel leaders still standing even with a smaller army.

And why without those three it would've been a rout from the start? 

 

 

3) Why couldn't i?? War is not science. We cannot tell how they would have affected the battle or if it would've changed anything at all. 

 

 

4) You're not saying anything, no offense. Army leaders don't just command the center, you have made that unwritten rule up.

They may or they may not. It depends entirely of the battle preparations.

 

 

5) No, you're telling me what you wish it had happened. Their duel took place in the late stage of a long gruesome battle. I'd be very surprised if Rhaegar kept his lance since the very first charge.

 

 

6) I know his resume. What i do not know is why the rest of the vets wouldn't tell Rhaegar they believed he was gambly risking their lives.

When someone is a veteran is by definition "seasoned". And your comparison between sargeants and general is really absurd in medieval context. Where command was given to Lords, heirs or great knights. 

 

 

7) The only way?? Here again talking about your wishes as if there were fact. 

 

8) Half the Kingsguard is just 3 men. Kingsguard doesn't mean super human. Ned and his six companions got there and killed them all the same. 

 

 

9) ???? I'm saying that we don't know how they were there and what they were up to.

The only moment we see them is in a context of them clearly anticipating a battle. We don't know how they were in any other context.

The book says they were wearing their armour in one occasion, it certainly doesn't say they were always wearing it.

 

 

10) No, it's him believing he was going to come back and acting on said believe.

 

[John Suburbs]

19 hours ago, frenin said:

 

1) Yeah, I don't know about that. I'm just putting up the numbers.  Martin's words are an estimate, he could've changed his mind later and rather than the numbers of the North and Dorne weren't similar. Yet, still the fact that a generation after the First Dornish War the first vulture King could gather an army 30k strong without any serious commitment from the most powerful Houses in Dorne points out that either Doran is lying or Martin changed his mind.

 

 

2) Lewyn's levies contributed mightily to the war effort, that's for sure. The only thing that we know about Barri is that he killed several men before being taken out himself and we don't even know how Darry perfomed. It's inmaterial at the end, they were all there and they were all taken out, the rebel leaders still standing even with a smaller army.

And why without those three it would've been a rout from the start? 

 

 

3) Why couldn't i?? War is not science. We cannot tell how they would have affected the battle or if it would've changed anything at all. 

 

 

4) You're not saying anything, no offense. Army leaders don't just command the center, you have made that unwritten rule up.

They may or they may not. It depends entirely of the battle preparations.

 

 

5) No, you're telling me what you wish it had happened. Their duel took place in the late stage of a long gruesome battle. I'd be very surprised if Rhaegar kept his lance since the very first charge.

 

 

6) I know his resume. What i do not know is why the rest of the vets wouldn't tell Rhaegar they believed he was gambly risking their lives.

When someone is a veteran is by definition "seasoned". And your comparison between sargeants and general is really absurd in medieval context. Where command was given to Lords, heirs or great knights. 

 

 

7) The only way?? Here again talking about your wishes as if there were fact. 

 

8) Half the Kingsguard is just 3 men. Kingsguard doesn't mean super human. Ned and his six companions got there and killed them all the same. 

 

 

9) ???? I'm saying that we don't know how they were there and what they were up to.

The only moment we see them is in a context of them clearly anticipating a battle. We don't know how they were in any other context.

The book says they were wearing their armour in one occasion, it certainly doesn't say they were always wearing it.

 

 

10) No, it's him believing he was going to come back and acting on said believe.

 

2) Because without any competent knights to lead the divisions the rebels would have swept over the loyalists. B, D and L commanded they men because the men had confidence in them, in their statures, and they fought ably and fiercly until they fell. It would have been much different if they were being led by some petty knight who went down in the first charge.

3) Because victory was determined literally by one swing of a war hammer. If Robert had to face first Gerold and then Dayne, he would most likely have fallen. Then the loyalists would not have broke and ran and the battle may have turned their way.

4) I'm not saying he most definitely without doubt commanded the center, but this is the most likely place for him because, you know, he is the leader of the rebellion and a ferocious warrior. Do you think he used his booming voice to direct his men while standing on a hilltop a mile away?

5) Rhaegar was not likely to have been fighting through the whole battle. He is not a warrior like Robert. Plus, if Rhaegar goes down, that's it; the loyalists have no reason to fight. If Robert goes down, the rebels can still keep at it because they have at least two more high lords who will take up the cause.

Rhaegar's best weapon is the lance. This is what he would have used as he entered the battle, after he saw his right collapse and his two other commanders fall. It was a last-ditch effort to win the battle. And I'm still confused by this part of our discussion. What is it about Rhaegar with a lance that disrupts your head canon so badly?

6) They might have, or they might have counseled him to cross because that is what he wanted to do and he is the crown prince. Only someone with the gravitas of the White Bull could talk frankly to him.

7) Yes, in what other way would Ned just happen to know something was up at the ToJ unless people had a reason to talking about something strange at the ToJ? A bunch of armed men at a military post in time of war is not strange. Three KG are.

8) Yes, three men who should be guarding their king, or the crown prince at the very least, not wiling away the days out in the middle of nowhere for no apparent reason. It is strongly suggested in the books that they were defeated with no small amount of treachery, not strength or skill. And even then, it was a close call.

9) We know why they were there: to guard Lyanna. They are not prepared for battle any more than they would normally be. Dayne doesn't even have his sword drawn and Whent is on one knee sharpening his. They are already dressed in their whites, no scrambling around to remove their disguises. 

10) Exactly. My initial point was to counter the idea that Rhaegar is such a megalomaniac that he could not even conceive of the idea that he would fall in battle. That is clearly not the case, even though he assures Jaime that he will return and make changes. People read too much into this conversation.

[Universal Sword Donor]

On 4/2/2021 at 2:20 PM, Jaenara Belarys said:

I came up with that assessment from just logic, just telling you, not information. I know that the Reach has the highest population in all seven or eight provinces, has quite a few noble houses, which means light horse, heavy horse, infantry, archers etc. 

 I agree, the Reach probably didn't, because they were occupied with the siege of Storm's End. But the fact that the Reach can marshal multiple, massive armies just illustrates that Mace Tyrell is a fool. He should've split his forces, kept the Redwyne galleys there, but send off half his army to put down the rebels using whatever force needed.

Uh that’s basically what Mace did. Sent men to the trident, kept besieging SE and blockaded them with the Redwyne fleet 

[Jaenara Belarys]

He didn't send enough. And he didn't send half.

[frenin]

5 hours ago, John Suburbs said:

2) Because without any competent knights to lead the divisions the rebels would have swept over the loyalists. B, D and L commanded they men because the men had confidence in them, in their statures, and they fought ably and fiercly until they fell. It would have been much different if they were being led by some petty knight who went down in the first charge.

3) Because victory was determined literally by one swing of a war hammer. If Robert had to face first Gerold and then Dayne, he would most likely have fallen. Then the loyalists would not have broke and ran and the battle may have turned their way.

4) I'm not saying he most definitely without doubt commanded the center, but this is the most likely place for him because, you know, he is the leader of the rebellion and a ferocious warrior. Do you think he used his booming voice to direct his men while standing on a hilltop a mile away?

5) Rhaegar was not likely to have been fighting through the whole battle. He is not a warrior like Robert. Plus, if Rhaegar goes down, that's it; the loyalists have no reason to fight. If Robert goes down, the rebels can still keep at it because they have at least two more high lords who will take up the cause.

Rhaegar's best weapon is the lance. This is what he would have used as he entered the battle, after he saw his right collapse and his two other commanders fall. It was a last-ditch effort to win the battle. And I'm still confused by this part of our discussion. What is it about Rhaegar with a lance that disrupts your head canon so badly?

6) They might have, or they might have counseled him to cross because that is what he wanted to do and he is the crown prince. Only someone with the gravitas of the White Bull could talk frankly to him.

7) Yes, in what other way would Ned just happen to know something was up at the ToJ unless people had a reason to talking about something strange at the ToJ? A bunch of armed men at a military post in time of war is not strange. Three KG are.

8) Yes, three men who should be guarding their king, or the crown prince at the very least, not wiling away the days out in the middle of nowhere for no apparent reason. It is strongly suggested in the books that they were defeated with no small amount of treachery, not strength or skill. And even then, it was a close call.

9) We know why they were there: to guard Lyanna. They are not prepared for battle any more than they would normally be. Dayne doesn't even have his sword drawn and Whent is on one knee sharpening his. They are already dressed in their whites, no scrambling around to remove their disguises. 

10) Exactly. My initial point was to counter the idea that Rhaegar is such a megalomaniac that he could not even conceive of the idea that he would fall in battle. That is clearly not the case, even though he assures Jaime that he will return and make changes. People read too much into this conversation.

 

2) How do you know that those three were the only competent knights again?The Kingsguard may have commanded the men... because commanding the King's armies is a literal part of their job. And last time i checked, commanding an army has little to do with whether they like their commander or not.

 

 

3) Maybe maybe not. Maybe they never face each other in battle, maybe other warriors take then out. Maybe maybe maybe...

 

4) He could've commanded any battle of his army, center is not specific maybe he did maybe he didn't.

 

5) - I don't know how you know that.  Princes and Kings and lords fight all the time. Maekar, Aegon 5, Jaeharys, Daeron, Robb, Steffon, Robb the list goes on. There's no point in marching to battle if he was not going to fight.

 

- My headcanon?? I'm literally saying that we don't know and we simply cannot draw that conclusion. This whole discussion is about you treating your wishes as facts.

 

 

6) This is again made up. Why would they want to counsel him to endanger their lives?? 

One thing is that they had to go along with a bad decision another very different is that it came from them.

 

7) Maybe because they had seen Rhaegar there?? We don't know. Acting as if those are the only options is simply wrong and a fallacy i have no reason to oblige.

 

8) -They were ordered to be there.

     - It's not strongly suggested that they lost due treachery.

- They still lose. Ie, not supermen. Very gifted warriors but that's that.

 

 

9) All of them are with their armour on, they are waiting for those men and the other literally is sharpening his blade before the battle.

 

10) I have never said that he was a megalomaniac. I stated that he was sure he was to come back. Which he was. The rest is up to you.

 

 

 

[John Suburbs]

18 hours ago, frenin said:

 

2) How do you know that those three were the only competent knights again?The Kingsguard may have commanded the men... because commanding the King's armies is a literal part of their job. And last time i checked, commanding an army has little to do with whether they like their commander or not.

 

 

3) Maybe maybe not. Maybe they never face each other in battle, maybe other warriors take then out. Maybe maybe maybe...

 

4) He could've commanded any battle of his army, center is not specific maybe he did maybe he didn't.

 

5) - I don't know how you know that.  Princes and Kings and lords fight all the time. Maekar, Aegon 5, Jaeharys, Daeron, Robb, Steffon, Robb the list goes on. There's no point in marching to battle if he was not going to fight.

 

- My headcanon?? I'm literally saying that we don't know and we simply cannot draw that conclusion. This whole discussion is about you treating your wishes as facts.

 

 

6) This is again made up. Why would they want to counsel him to endanger their lives?? 

One thing is that they had to go along with a bad decision another very different is that it came from them.

 

7) Maybe because they had seen Rhaegar there?? We don't know. Acting as if those are the only options is simply wrong and a fallacy i have no reason to oblige.

 

8) -They were ordered to be there.

     - It's not strongly suggested that they lost due treachery.

- They still lose. Ie, not supermen. Very gifted warriors but that's that.

 

 

9) All of them are with their armour on, they are waiting for those men and the other literally is sharpening his blade before the battle.

 

10) I have never said that he was a megalomaniac. I stated that he was sure he was to come back. Which he was. The rest is up to you.

 

 

 

2) I didn't mean competent in a martial sense, but competent in their ability to rally men and keep them from fleeing. It takes a knight of some renown to do this, not some minor nobody. And aside from B,D and L, there are not other named knights in Rhaegar's army.

3) Yes, maybe all these things happen, or maybe they don't. What's certain is that if you leave your best men hundreds of leagues away there is no way they can be there for you when you need them. And to detail them on a task that does not require any of their skills is even more foolish.

4) Yes, maybe, maybe not. Be he is out front, shouting orders and fighting, no matter where he is. I don't understand why this is a big deal to you.

5) Tywin does not. Roose does not. It's called commanding from the rear so you can direct troop movements, archery volleys and other actions, and only taking the field when its time to mop up. Rhaegar is not a fierce warrior like Robert, or even Robb. And as I said, if he goes down the loyalists collapse. He has experienced warriors who know how to handle themselves in battle, and he would have had even more if he didn't squander them hiding his girlfriend. There was no reason to put Rhaegar in the van, and every reason not to.

6) Well, they crossed, didn't they? If he had adequate counsel and it was endangering their lives, why did they let him cross? Maybe because they didn't have the standing to say no?

7) So the KG are all in disguise but Rhaegar is there with all his distinctive armor and colored feathers? Again, why is Rhaegar always going out of his way to make sure everyone knows exactly where he is and what he is doing with Lyanna?

8) Yes, they were ordered to be there. But only the king can give an order like that. The crown prince, especially one that does not have the king's trust, cannot commandeer half the king's guards just to hide his girlfriend while the king is facing a rebellion. 

Yes, and any one of those very gifted warriors could have prevented the single hammer blow that lost the war and Rhaegar's life.

9) They are not at the ready. Their weapons are not drawn, and one of them is on his knees tending to what should have been done long ago. They did not just jump out of their disguises to don their armor. That's just silly.

10) Then we are in agreement on this and there is no need to drag it out. My comments on this began when someone said Rhaegar was so unbalanced that he saw no possibility of dying. Nobody goes off to war and then talks about making changes afterward if they think they are going to die. But this is a far cry from saying Rhaegar could not conceive of the reality of the situation.