Covid-19 #29: Gazing Into the Abyss, Again

[Clueless Northman]

3 hours ago, VigoTheCarpathian said:

Half of them have no dedicated office space in their homes - one is working from his kitchen table.  His spouse is also working from home (she has to have a closed door for her job, so took over his office) and a college freshman, all trying to work over vpn on the same internet connection, and I have no real recourse as a manager if he can’t reliably get online to do his job, because it wasn’t a condition of employment and I can’t send him into the office to work because of crisis.  Not to mention the untrod ground of ergonomics and work-based injuries...

Similar case for most coworkers and friends. As for me, I can sit at my PC desk at home for nearly full days for a couple of weeks, playing and browsing the webs, I can do that all evenings for basically a year, but adding my usual PC activities to 40h of work a week for months was way too much. My home installation and my office installation are mediocre, but as long as I split my monthly/yearly computer time evenly between them, I'm fine. These last 13 months have been the worst, physically, since decades. A co-worker had a shitty place in his kitchen for spring 2020; it was clear he would become manic-depressive or downright insane if he had to do this all again for 4 months this winter-spring, so he was the only one allowed to go full-time to the office, alone in the room, if not usually in the office, and he fared way better. I was also quite worried about the coworker who took one of our laptops because her bf was using their PC - she eventually managed to connect it to a bigger screen, which is ergonomically a bit better, I think.

For those who have a big flat or a house with nice garden and stuff, a dedicated room for comp/office work, who have plenty of space around, it's obviously ok and I hope they can do as much work from home as they want and can.

Still, to be honest, when comparing what happened to a lot of my acquaintances I'm a tiny bit salty that it turned out we had even more work than on average during the last year, had serious overtime at the end of the year, and that I nearly broke my back because government was totally useless when covid happened, instead of having less work, very slightly reduced pay and be able to enjoy being at home having a bit more free time than usual, playing stuff and reading.

[Fragile Bird]

AZ reluctance has hit some parts of Canada hard, with clinics sitting almost empty because no one is showing up.

[Zorral]

"Nearly 20 percent of the U.S. population is fully vaccinated. Many countries may not hit that target this year."

https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/percent-of-us-population-vaccinated/2021/04/08/034be0aa-971a-11eb-8f0a-3384cf4fb399_story.html

Quote

 

As of Thursday, just short of 20 percent of the U.S. population was fully vaccinated, giving some 66 million people a strong measure of protection against a disease that has already killed more than 500,000 Americans.

By contrast, Covax — a World Health Organization-backed push for equitable distribution — aims to secure enough doses to cover up to 20 percent of the people in participating countries by the end of 2021, but it may not meet that relatively modest goal, experts warn.

The gap between the vaccine “haves” and “have-nots” is widening, fueling frustration and potentially extending the pandemic.

“It’s unconscionable,” said Zain Rizvi, an expert on access to medicine at Public Citizen, a watchdog group. “Many countries will be lucky if by the end of the year they are close to where the U.S. is now.”

So far, the vaccine race has been dominated by a handful of relatively wealthy nations: most notably Israel, where nearly 57 percent of the population was fully vaccinated as of April 7; Chile, at about 22 percent; and the United States. Britain has been vaccinating rapidly, as well, but it has delayed second doses as it tries to get a first to as many people as possible....

[Graph not reproduced due to Reasons]

Meanwhile, Our World in Data estimates based on publicly reported data that at least 5 percent of the global population has had a dose, with the real number (incorporating China’s nonpublic tally) perhaps between 6 and 7 percent.

Priority-supply deals, export restrictions and other means of hoarding by rich nations have contributed to a severe global supply crunch and left many countries scrambling.

Covax has delivered 38 million doses, providing potentially lifesaving shots to places and people that might otherwise go without. Yet divided between 100 economies, those doses amount to only a thin layer of protection.

“It’s been heartening to see a small number of doses reaching countries around the world,” said Suerie Moon, co-director of the Global Health Center at the Graduate Institute of International and Development Studies in Geneva. “But the big picture is more troubling than reassuring because we have a lot of things that are not going well....”

 

  We must step up, soon.  

[Iskaral Pust]

I got the Pfizer vaccine on Tuesday.  My arm was sore by Tuesday night and then through Wednesday, but was already starting to improve by Wednesday night and then felt only sore to touch today.  Aside from some tiredness, I didn’t notice much else as symptoms.  I’m already scheduled for my second dose in three weeks.

And yes, my wife’s Moderna second dose is four weeks after her first, thanks @Chataya de Fleury, so we’ll both be fully vaccinated within a week of each other.

[Padraig]

Ireland probably had its first serious clotting incident.  40 year old woman.  Had to happen, I suppose.  But the consequences are troubling.  Lets see how good we are at dealing with probabilities.

I see Curevac is still hopeful about getting approval in June.  So that's good news.

[Mr. Chatywin et al.]

10 hours ago, Fez said:

Though everyone I've talked to who's gotten Pfizer did say dose 2 basically knocked them down for about 24-36 hours.

Didn't do anything to me other than give me a lightheaded kind of buzz. You'll be fine.

[DireWolfSpirit]

4 hours ago, Tywin et al. said:

Didn't do anything to me other than give me a lightheaded kind of buzz. You'll be fine.

Both my very elderly parents had no problems with their 2nd doses either.

[Padraig]

11 hours ago, Chataya de Fleury said:

Goodness. I might be really hesitant about those probabilities that you mention, personally, given that I’m a pretty risk-averse person. If AZ were the ONLY vaccine, I’d weigh that more in favor of AZ vs covid, but with three other vaccines out there...if I lived in the EU, I’d think my temptation would be to wait (or visit beautiful Cuba).

That's understandable.  Our biggest challenge is that we are still vaccinating vulnerable people (i.e. due to age or medical condition) and health workers.  They still have a lot to gain from vaccination but they are reading the same worrying stories as everyone else about side-effects.  And we wouldn't have enough vaccines to give them a choice for 2 or 3 more months.

It must be very difficult to them.  My scientific side can come up with a very different response to my emotional side!

As an update though, the women has been successfully treated and will be discharged in the coming days.  There should be a bigger focus on that side of the story than "clotting".

And on a different tack, I see Germany has being vaccinating a higher proportion of its population than the UK over the last few days (the US is way out in front now though).  Good to see some improvements, even if it was helped by the UK having a temporary slowdown.

[rotting sea cow]

18 hours ago, JoannaL said:

Another scandalous vaccine problem (this time not AZ, must be the first !!):

Slovakia which decided to order Sputnik (along with Hungaria and the Czech Republic) before it is approved by the EMA, decided to not use the delivered doses because the delivered batch differentiated with the published qualities of the vaccine (meaning its not Sputnik, or a differnt version, but not the substance used in scientific publications). Thats .... really something else...

This is serious, but as usual, everything in West-Russia business is always muddled in controversy so it's hard to dissect what its happening. The Slovakian "FDA" is accusing that the "stuff" is something else and of the makers are not providing enough information. The Sputnik makers are accusing them of sabotage and not using approved labs for the tests.

Here is a link

https://www.euronews.com/2021/04/08/slovakia-told-to-return-sputnik-v-vaccines-amid-row-over-their-quality

and another

https://whbl.com/2021/04/08/russia-calls-on-slovakia-to-return-sputnik-v-doses-after-dispute/

The only way to resolve this is to test the stuff in few certified laboratories independently.

I think that any country with some capacity should  randomly test few batches to ensure quality. This is important. See below.

[rotting sea cow]

Derek Lowe has more insight of what happened at the Baltimore plant that was producing J&J and AZ vaccines. He cites the NYT and adds his perspective. The problems are honestly appalling.

https://blogs.sciencemag.org/pipeline/archives/2021/04/08/vaccine-manufacturing-woes-at-emergent

Quote

An audit conducted for AstraZeneca specifically highlighted the risks of viral cross-contamination, which experts believe was responsible for tainting the millions of Johnson & Johnson doses, according to a review of the confidential document by The Times. The audits and investigations also flagged a persistent problem with mold in areas required to be kept clean, poor disinfection of some plant equipment leading to growth of bacteria, the repeated approval of raw materials that had not been fully tested, and inadequate training of some employees.

The problem was caught and the doses never made into the public. One needs to wonder of course if these problems are also occurring elsewhere and we don't know. See above.

Quote

I see that J&J has taken over management of the facility, and I wish them good luck fixing these problems. We – the US and the world – need this production facility running the right way, but having it full of corner-cutting managers and overworked employees is not that way. Better to scale down the production targets and get them right, at least for now, than to run on the edge of disaster.

 

[Fragile Bird]

I just read an article (behind a paywall) on the WaPo that looked at the death rate in Italy, which is just as high now as it was in December, even after almost 4 months of vaccinations.

Apparently Italy took the route of vaccinating medical staff and young people instead of the route other countries took, vaccinating the most vulnerable first. The average age at death was 81, and now it’s 79, as people not at high risk of dying are being vaccinated and elderly are not. The government is now directing attention to the elderly.

Part of the blame lies in the fact there was no national policy, every district could choose who they thought were ‘essential’ workers to be vaccinated. In one district chefs were vaccinated, in another professors, who worked from home, in another lawyers. Apparently the Italian press is full of stories about actors and judges and local celebrities being vaccinated. Other European countries have seen significant drops in their death rates because the people most at risk of dying were targeted for getting their jabs first.

There was some discussion here in Canada about vaccinating young people first, as being the ones who spread the virus, but the roll-out has been done by age, front-line workers, indigenous people, and severe chronic conditions instead. As a result, our deaths have also dropped significantly.

[Fragile Bird]

I woke up this morning to a story about issues with the J&J vaccine. Hold my beer, AZ!

Hopefully, not as bad as that...

Two vaccine sites administering the J&J vaccine in the US, one in Colorado, the other in North Carolina, temporarily shut down after people had immediate adverse effects, minor, but immediate. Inquiring minds want to know - was this vaccine from Europe or from the troubled Emergent plant, or elsewhere in the US?

I see it was 18 people out of 2,300 in NC who felt dizziness, light-headedness, and nausea. In Colorado it was 11 people out of more than 1,700, .62%

https://www.cbsnews.com/news/colorado-north-carolina-johnson-and-johnson-vaccine-reactions/

Quote

The race to vaccinate hit more roadblocks on Thursday, as several patients at a mass vaccination site in North Carolina suffered immediate reactions to the Johnson & Johnson shot. A day earlier, 11 people had adverse reactions in Denver, ranging from dizziness to nausea. 

Both sites temporarily shut down. 

"At this point we have no reason to believe there's anything wrong with the vaccine itself," said Dr. Shauna Gulley, a Centura Health chief clinical officer. "This is a temporary pause of one brand of vaccine so that we can investigate further." 

 

[JoannaL]

4 minutes ago, Fragile Bird said:

I woke up this morning to a story about issues with the J&J vaccine. Hold my beer, AZ!

Hopefully, not as bad as that...

Two vaccine sites administering the J&J vaccine in the US, one in Colorado, the other in North Carolina, temporarily shut down after people had immediate adverse effects, minor, but immediate. Inquiring minds want to know - was this vaccine from Europe or from the troubled Emergent plant, or elsewhere in the US?

I see it was 18 people out of 2,300 in NC who felt dizziness, light-headedness, and nausea. In Colorado it was 11 people out of more than 1,700, .62%

https://www.cbsnews.com/news/colorado-north-carolina-johnson-and-johnson-vaccine-reactions/

 

That will be only normal side effects, AZ has the same... but reading your post after the post of the Baltimore plant and all the mold and the bacteria leaves a really bad feeling...

[Fragile Bird]

6 minutes ago, JoannaL said:

That will be only normal side effects, AZ has the same... but reading your post after the post of the Baltimore plant and all the mold and the bacteria leaves a really bad feeling...

That's just it. The NYT story said no vaccine has been shipped out of the Emergent plant, which raises my eyebrows. They've been making vaccine since November and nothing has been shipped? Somehow I think that quote was wrong, like nothing from the spoiled batches, or nothing since the spoiled batches, but I don't know for sure.

It does seem like normal, minor adverse effects, maybe other locations had them and didn't think it was worrisome? Millions of doses have been administered in the US already. Maybe since the AZ stories came out everyone is nervous and extra cautious?

[rotting sea cow]

8 minutes ago, Fragile Bird said:

It does seem like normal, minor adverse effects, maybe other locations had them and didn't think it was worrisome? Millions of doses have been administered in the US already. Maybe since the AZ stories came out everyone is nervous and extra cautious?

The typical adverse effects of vaccines usually appear within hours after the dose and may last few days at the worst. The story said they were immediate which make wonder if these are allergic reactions, because those appear within minutes. It might well be a non-event but good that there are responsible people out there.

How many doses have been applied of the J&J vaccine?

[Fragile Bird]

2 hours ago, rotting sea cow said:

Derek Lowe has more insight of what happened at the Baltimore plant that was producing J&J and AZ vaccines. He cites the NYT and adds his perspective. The problems are honestly appalling.

https://blogs.sciencemag.org/pipeline/archives/2021/04/08/vaccine-manufacturing-woes-at-emergent

The problem was caught and the doses never made into the public. One needs to wonder of course if these problems are also occurring elsewhere and we don't know. See above.

 

If there is a persistent mold problem in the plant, a relatively new, high-tech sort of place iirc from stories, that's a super serious problem. That is not a problem that will be solved with a quick line shutdown and cleaning. There was an old plant Sanofi acquired here in Toronto that was shut down for years because of mold issues, and the fact birds could get in and fly around! That, btw, is a common problem in plants because they fly in through loading doors in manufacturing plants, and you can't close the loading doors completely, although they try by backing the trucks right up to the doors, which are close in size. Sanofi wasn't in a rush to re-open, I don't think, but cleaning and remodeling took years.

[Fragile Bird]

24 minutes ago, rotting sea cow said:

The typical adverse effects of vaccines usually appear within hours after the dose and may last few days at the worst. The story said they were immediate which make wonder if these are allergic reactions, because those appear within minutes. It might well be a non-event but good that there are responsible people out there.

How many doses have been applied of the J&J vaccine?

I think, at the very least, the first delivery of over 4 M doses several weeks ago have made it into arms, and since then another 18M doses have been delivered, as far as I can tell. Millions of those doses must have been administered by now.

[HexMachina]

3 hours ago, Padraig said:

That's understandable.  Our biggest challenge is that we are still vaccinating vulnerable people (i.e. due to age or medical condition) and health workers.  They still have a lot to gain from vaccination but they are reading the same worrying stories as everyone else about side-effects.  And we wouldn't have enough vaccines to give them a choice for 2 or 3 more months.

It must be very difficult to them.  My scientific side can come up with a very different response to my emotional side!

As an update though, the women has been successfully treated and will be discharged in the coming days.  There should be a bigger focus on that side of the story than "clotting".

And on a different tack, I see Germany has being vaccinating a higher proportion of its population than the UK over the last few days (the US is way out in front now though).  Good to see some improvements, even if it was helped by the UK having a temporary slowdown.

Can you actually choose which vaccine you get in the UK? I didn’t look into it because i didn’t care which i was getting, but when i booked my appointment i didn’t see anything to day which vaccine it would be, I only found out when I went to my appointment. Just curious

[Padraig]

37 minutes ago, Fragile Bird said:

That's just it. The NYT story said no vaccine has been shipped out of the Emergent plant, which raises my eyebrows. They've been making vaccine since November and nothing has been shipped? Somehow I think that quote was wrong, like nothing from the spoiled batches, or nothing since the spoiled batches, but I don't know for sure.

That plant has not been approved by the FDA, so yes, nothing has been shipped.

Given all the issues with it, its hardly surprising that the FDA hasn't approved the factory?  I'm sure J&J will be told to sort it out asap.  There will be huge pressure there, so I imagine it will be fixed (never mind the cost). 

J&J has only been approved for little over a month, so its not like the factory could have been approved earlier than that.  Most plants were supposed to build up a stockpile of drugs before approval.

The mild reactions to J&J doesn't sound like much of a story.  Maybe the reactions are slightly different from Moderna/Pfizer, which surprised people?

The Italy story isn't great though.  Italy is one of the poorer countries in terms of recent fatalities but average in terms of cases.  There vaccination approach explains that gap.  Italy has a rather significant older population in the first place, so i'm surprised they took that approach.  Even if they had done it in parallel.

[Which Tyler]

1 minute ago, HelenaExMachina said:

Can you actually choose which vaccine you get in the UK? I didn’t look into it because i didn’t care which i was getting, but when i booked my appointment i didn’t see anything to day which vaccine it would be, I only found out when I went to my appointment. Just curious

Kinda.

If you're invited by your GP you get what they've got.

If you book through the NHS central system, you can choose your location, and see which vaccine each location has access to.