Covid-19 #29: Gazing Into the Abyss, Again

[S John]

Think about all the people involved in the process of making these vaccines - scientists, medical researchers, accountants, qa/qc people, CEOs of huge companies, government regulators, independent review panels, and on and on and on. And THEN consider all the different ways that people in the United States have come to access the vaccine - some at local pharmacies, some at county health departments, some through their place of work, some through a local hospital, etc. 

With all of the above in mind, I can’t help but equate conspiratorial thinking with regard to the vaccine as about on par with people who think the moon landing was fake.

It is the same fundamental problem that many conspiracies have - there are too many people involved. Way too many.

All the people involved in the research, the manufacture, the approval, and now the tens of thousands of health care people administering the vaccine who see millions of people get their doses all across the country every day - and there really isn’t anyone except for the expected kooks sounding the alarm.

I got mine at the local hospital as have at least 15,000 others in my town. If this vaccine was fucking people up at an alarming rate, they would be returning to that same hospital! I don’t think regular health workers who all too the oath and aren’t on the payroll of Moderna, Pfizer, or the US government are all going to stay mum and keep jabbing people with poison. And that’s just one little town out of thousands of communities in this country where the same thing has been going on for several months now.

Adverse effects are obviously possible and have happened, and I would agree that even though we may have a pretty good idea - we do not know for sure if there will be any kind of long term negative effects from these vaccines because nobody can predict the future and account for every variable. But we can be sure that some pretty smart people were pretty confident that the vast VAST majority of us will be just fine.

Even if 20 people tragically died out of 20 million vaccines, that a helluva lot less than would die if we gave 20 million people Covid!

I'm a little extra touchy on this subject today because I’m constantly having to stamp out the idiotic beliefs of my maternal relatives who send my mom conspiratorial shit constantly. Just today one of my uncles got her worked up from sending her some jackass talking about how the vaccine is really a bio weapon. And it freaked her out because she’s already had both doses (thank god, no going back now!).

I had to point out the obvious, if the government / deep state was trying to kill us all with a bio weapon, why would they be so stupid as to kill all the ‘sheep’ who actually believed them and got it. Wouldn’t you actually want to take out the obstinate bastards who were too ‘smart’ to fall for it? And in any case, if one thing talks in this country it’s $$. If you don’t trust the US government, trust that the CEOs of J&J, Pfizer, and Moderna realize that killing those who take their products is bad for the bottom line. 

I know that nobody in here is spreading blatant misinformation or anything close to that. Not accusing anyone of that. But, if you don’t have any reason to believe that you’ll have a bad reaction to a vaccine you really, truly probably are not going to so consider yourself fortunate to be able to get one at all.

[Fragile Bird]

46 minutes ago, IheartIheartTesla said:

I already said the CDC has a database of adverse effects from all vaccines administered in the US.

Here is an article that explains some of the issues noted with Pfizer/Moderna in the US (as well as AZ elsewhere): https://www.medpagetoday.com/special-reports/exclusives/91813

The journal article quoted is here, which at least partially uses VAERS data: https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/ajh.26132?af=R

Ultimately its hard to pin down causation, but of the ~17 cases out 20+ million, since there was no history of ITP and it presented itself after the first dose of the vaccine, they couldnt rule out the possibility either (although its also in the ballpark of what you'd expect to have the condition).

Sorry, I misunderstood what you meant, I thought what you meant by “all vaccines” was that the Covid-19 vaccines weren’t distinguished from other vaccines.

What you say about causation (from the article) is exactly what was said about AZ and blood clots at first. At least, initially, although researchers in Europe think they may have found a connection between the vaccine and the blood clots.

And I see the second link mentions five additional cases, but there isn’t sufficient information for inclusion with the other cases. Unfortunately, they include people with hypothyroidism, an auto-immune condition that I suffer from. I think that’s the first time I’ve seen that mentioned.

Note the article states “In summary, we cannot exclude the possibility that the Pfizer and Moderna vaccines have the potential to trigger de novo ITP (including clinically undiagnosed cases), albeit very rarely.”

That’s a statement I have certainly not seen reported on any of the US media outlets I follow.

And of course a lot more than 20M vaccines have been administered since that article was published. I assume there could easily be another 100 or 140 cases if the 1 in a million number holds true.

[S John]

@Fragile Bird

Extrapolating from above, say 166 people have died from blood clots in the United States following receiving the Pfizer or Moderna vaccine. Without looking it up, I’m willing to bet that in a normal week in a nation of 330 million people that close to 166 people die of some kind of blood clot complications across the whole country every single week - if not every single day. It’s not that uncommon of a thing that can happen to people.

Point being, there is a very legitimate argument that the US media bringing reports of 166 deaths potentially related to blood clots after receiving the vaccine to headline status would actually be very irresponsible and misleading in its own right. It is an unbelievably tiny number statistically and probably not enough to actually be statistically significant when compared to everyday run of the mill blood clot related health problems.

Some may want to be apprised of every single case of a bad thing happening, but literally one in a million? And in a pandemic when we need people to not have irrational fears about the vaccine? I think there’s very good reason not to fear monger and I don’t think that is the same thing as lacking transparency. I wonder if you gave 166 million people ANY vaccine at all in a 3 month period that one in a million wouldn’t die of some random complication or another.

[Fragile Bird]

25 minutes ago, S John said:

 

I know that nobody in here is spreading blatant misinformation or anything close to that. Not accusing anyone of that. But, if you don’t have any reason to believe that you’ll have a bad reaction to a vaccine you really, truly probably are not going to so consider yourself fortunate to be able to get one at all.

I think you need to calm down. Asking what numbers are and wondering why information isn’t transparent is not the equivalent of claiming a vaccine is a bio-weapon, or that misinformation is being spread or that conspiracy theories are being invented.

Look at Buck, worrying now about whether or not she should take a second vaccine dose. The whole AstraZeneca situation has made people worried, people who likely wouldn’t have been worried otherwise. The loony tunes people are going to be loony anyway, but there are millions of people who want to just show up at a pharmacy and get vaccinated without worrying they may drop dead from a brain clot two weeks later.

Of course it’s better to get vaccinated than to get Covid-19.  As governments around the world have said, as the authors of the articles linked by IheartIheartTesla say in the article, the benefits of the vaccines far outweigh the risks that might be associated with the vaccines.

I’m getting vaccinated tomorrow, something I’ve anxiously waited for. There has never been a moment’s doubt that I would get vaccinated. That does not mean for one instance that I should not have the right to ask about Pfizer and Moderna, especially now that all this controversy over AZ has boiled over.

[S John]

19 minutes ago, Fragile Bird said:

I think you need to calm down. Asking what numbers are and wondering why information isn’t transparent is not the equivalent of claiming a vaccine is a bio-weapon, or that misinformation is being spread or that conspiracy theories are being invented.

Look at Buck, worrying now about whether or not she should take a second vaccine dose. The whole AstraZeneca situation has made people worried, people who likely wouldn’t have been worried otherwise. The loony tunes people are going to be loony anyway, but there are millions of people who want to just show up at a pharmacy and get vaccinated without worrying they may drop dead from a brain clot two weeks later.

I am not the one wondering aloud if the US media is hiding the real story.

[Fragile Bird]

1 minute ago, S John said:

I am not the one wondering aloud if the US media is hiding the real story.

Well, do tell, how many stories have you seen on CNN about the rate of blood clots in the US after vaccinations? I’ve seen discussions about what has been going on about AZ, in Europe, I’ve seen many people say that the benefits outweigh the risks, a fact I agree with 110%, but I have not seen stories about what is happening  in the US, the country that has done the most vaccinations and has the most information. The fact that the rate is 1 in a million, which sounds like is roughly the annual diagnosed rate, is excellent news. Why not report it?

One thing the AZ story has shown all of us is that the regulatory bodies in European countries have been monitoring reports with the kind of diligence that should reassure people that authorities are in fact paying attention to what’s happening. My expectation is that US authorities are just as diligent, and I would have expected much more information about what the situation is in the US. Hey, maybe I’m wrong, maybe it’s been discussed at the Covid-19 WH task force press conferences and I’ve missed it. 

[Padraig]

4 hours ago, Fragile Bird said:

Well, do tell, how many stories have you seen on CNN about the rate of blood clots in the US after vaccinations?

Making any connection between blood clots and vaccinations is fraught.

Science often deals in probabilities.  People don't like that way of thinking.  If there is a major news report that says that it is believed that the incidence of blood clots in people post-vaccination is the same as in the general population, the first question would be, are you certain.  And they wouldn't be...and then you have got a real story.

If you want the information, it is clearly available, as IheartIheartTesla showed.  But I wouldn't be expecting primary news stories to be focusing on non-stories.  Except (and this is what has happened in the EU) if there is something specifically unusual about the vaccine.  The media in the EU wouldn't be focusing on blood clots as part of their normal routine otherwise.

Just to note, most of those people in that report, got blood clots.  They didn't die.

[Fragile Bird]

1 hour ago, Padraig said:

Just to note, most of those people in that report, got blood clots.  They didn't die.

I was just going to post this. I never said or suggested that 160 people died. I said that it appears that the rate of the blood clots is 1 in a million. As far as I can tell, only one person died.

Oh, wait. I’m more awake now. I just went back and reread Tesla’s links. The information was as of January 29th, so after 6 weeks of vaccinations. Either 2 or 3 people had died, the doctor they call the “index patient”, plus two others, one of whom might be the “index patient”, they can’t tell. 51 people were reported with bleeding, including 11 vaginally and 13 conjuctivaly, meaning blood spots showed up in their eyes. And while the authors spoke of the cerebral blood clots occurring at a rate of 1 in a million, they also talk about possibly 29,000 to 78,000 people having the ITP condition, which is a lot more than 1 in a million in a country with 332 M people. It’s still a lot less than the number of people who die from Covid-19. The article also suggests that perhaps these reactions might mean second shots shouldn’t be administered.

But until I read that link I didn’t realize that this happens in people who get the flu vaccine and other vaccines, like the Shingrex vaccine. I’ve stayed at the doctor’s office after a vaccination to make sure I don’t have “a reaction” to a vaccine, I guess I didn’t really understand the possible range of reactions, I always had allergic reactions in mind. 
 

Another interesting fact that popped up in that article is that children have “secondary ITP” after the rubella vaccine at a rate of 1 in 40,000. I expect that means we’ll see more reactions once children start receiving the Covid vaccination.

And finally, I’ve googled questions about blood clots after receiving the Covid vaccination in many different ways and I have never had that article come up, at least not in the first two pages. Stories about AZ drown out everything. 

[A wilding]

2 hours ago, Padraig said:

Making any connection between blood clots and vaccinations is fraught.

Agreed. We appear now to be living in a post truth world, where the science is widely disbelieved. (Possibly at least partly because scientific fact is frequently distorted for commercial of political gain.)

If you put out a nuanced news story that there is a tiny risk of serious blood clotting, but that you are more likely to be hurt in a road accident, and that the risk is lower than using oral or injected contraceptives (and in the US less than that of being gunned down by a nutter), then it is not going to be read rationally by people. A substantial number will immediately assume that the vaccine is dangerous and promptly refuse to take it, and launch a crusade to tell others not to as well. Many other people will be left with a vague impression that maybe it isn't safe and perhaps they shouldn't take it.

I don't personally have an answer, but would not say that a news organisation that remains silent is wrong to do so.

ETA: we have both had one AZ jab, and will be going back for the second one.

[Maithanet]

18 hours ago, IheartIheartTesla said:

As of this morning we are at 166m nationally, of which 61m are fully vaccinated and the remaining 106m have received at least one dose.

That's not right.  According to WaPo's tracker (unlimited clicks), in the US the number is 57 million fully vaccinated and 106 million who have received one or both shots.  By that math, it's 57 million fully vaccinated and another 49 million who have just gotten their first shot. 

[IheartIheartTesla]

You are right (although the CDC has 61m as the fully vaccinated number). I read the stats quoted on the Guardian wrong - also a rookie mistake where I didnt multiply fully vaccinated numbers X ~2 (disregarding J&J).

Edit: Although, for the discussion we are having regarding the adverse effects, the number of shots administered is probably a good number to use anyway.

[Filippa Eilhart]

I think it’s fair to say most people (myself included) don’t really understand the odds. But if you have one vaccine where the risk of clotting is 1 in a million and another where the risk is 1 in 100 thousand or more surely you’ll wish for the one with a smaller risk.

[Maithanet]

53 minutes ago, IheartIheartTesla said:

You are right (although the CDC has 61m as the fully vaccinated number). I read the stats quoted on the Guardian wrong - also a rookie mistake where I didnt multiply fully vaccinated numbers X ~2 (disregarding J&J).

Edit: Although, for the discussion we are having regarding the adverse effects, the number of shots administered is probably a good number to use anyway.

That's fair, I just wanted to correct the 166 million number, because that is the difference between 1/3rd and 1/2 of the country being vaccinated.  Which is a pretty big deal. 

But we're going at a clip of 20+ million vaccinations a week, so hopefully we'll be hitting that 50% milestone very soon. 

[Zorral]

Walgreens pharmacies decided to delay scheduling second dose of Pfizer a week longer than necessary -- for its "own convenience."

https://www.nytimes.com/live/2021/04/05/world/covid-vaccine-coronavirus-cases#walgreens-wasnt-following-us-guidance-on-spacing-pfizer-doses-but-following-complaints-will-do-so

https://www.nydailynews.com/coronavirus/ny-walgreens-delayed-second-pfizer-covid-vaccine-doses-20210405-qwcgkktme5bznbj356ysmbsjmi-story.html

Quote

 

Walgreens tried to call its own shots when it came to second doses of the Pfizer’s COVID vaccine, making people wait an extra week beyond the recommended 21 days.

Patients are supposed to get two doses of the Pfizer-BioNTech vaccine spaced three weeks apart, federal health officials have said, but Walgreens was spacing the inoculations four weeks apart for its own convenience, the New York Times first reported Monday and the Daily News confirmed.

 

Partner's 1st vaccination was at Walgreen's, but they didn't delay scheduling the second one, which is Wednesday.

[Fragile Bird]

Our 2nd shots are scheduled for 112 days after the first.

[HexMachina]

My second vaccine (AZ) is booked for 16th June which will be almost 10 weeks after my first. It was the earliest one I was able to book.

[Fragile Bird]

Got my Pfizer vaccine! Sitting and waiting for 15 minutes now. 

[Mr. Chatywin et al.]

32 minutes ago, HelenaExMachina said:

My second vaccine (AZ) is booked for 16th June which will be almost 10 weeks after my first. It was the earliest one I was able to book.

Is this standard? One of the fears I raised early on in the vaccination process is that shortages would prevent a lot of people from getting their second shot three weeks later, and that the increased gap between shots would dilute their effectiveness. 

[williamjm]

18 minutes ago, Tywin et al. said:

Is this standard? One of the fears I raised early on in the vaccination process is that shortages would prevent a lot of people from getting their second shot three weeks later, and that the increased gap between shots would dilute their effectiveness. 

It is the standard in the UK for vaccinations. AZ (unlike Pfizer) have suggested that a larger gap than 3 weeks is more effective.

[Clueless Northman]

Looks like AZ testing made sure that the vaccines were still working as expected up to 12 weeks after 1st dose. On the other hand, I haven't seen similar updates from Pfizer, Moderna or J/J.

That said, my mom got her 2nd Pfizer close to 4 weeks after the first one, and I was under the impression 3/4 weeks were supposed to be standard for Pfizer - at least that there wouldn't be a significant drop in immunity if you waited 28 days instead of 21, though there might be if you waited 60-100 days. Both times, she just felt a bit of a sore arm for a few hours, some time after the jab, and she clearly had worse vaccine reactions than that in the past.