US Politics- Enemy at the Gaetz

[Ormond]

15 hours ago, Tywin et al. said:

TCould have something to do with the time in which statehood was achieved as well, but that's just a guess.

I doubt if that's the case. West Virginia did not become a state until during the Civil War, and Virginia is a state that requires a 2/3 majority to override. It seems odd that WV is more like KY than VA on this particular issue. 

[Fez]

RIP to Rep. Alcee Hastings (D-FL). Guy had a hell of a career, in both good and bad ways. He was a federal judge once upon a time, until he was impeached and removed from the bench for accepting bribes in 1989. He decided to have a second career in Congress, first winning election in 1992 and staying in office until now. He died of pancreatic cancer at age 84.

In political terms, his district is a Democratic vote sink. When Republicans bother to run anyone at all, which is rare, they usually get about 20% of the vote. So Democrats will easily hold the seat whenever the special election is called. In the mean time though, the House majority is now that much smaller; at 218-211. We're getting awfully close to the point where Democrats would have difficulty maintaining a quorum if Republicans refused to show (it's a majority of all members, not of all seats, so there's still a little bit of leeway).

[Mr. Chatywin et al.]

59 minutes ago, Ormond said:

I doubt if that's the case. West Virginia did not become a state until during the Civil War, and Virginia is a state that requires a 2/3 majority to override. It seems odd that WV is more like KY than VA on this particular issue. 

That comparison does throw some cold water on that theory given there was a significant gap between when statehood was achieved for WV and KY, and looking at a few other states there doesn’t appear to be an obvious pattern.

[Fez]

5 minutes ago, Tywin et al. said:

That comparison does throw some cold water on that theory given there was a significant gap between when statehood was achieved for WV and KY, and looking at a few other states there doesn’t appear to be an obvious pattern.

The question, which I'm not prepared to take the time to look up, is when did these states all adopt their current state constitutional language about vetos. Maybe there was some regional reform movement at some point. Though I can't imagine what. If it was some sort of anti-civil rights things, which I could otherwise believe, I'd think all the deep south would have it; not just Mississippi.

[Zorral]

"What an analysis of 377 Americans arrested or charged in the Capitol insurrection tells us" [pay walled]

https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/2021/04/06/capitol-insurrection-arrests-cpost-analysis/

Quote

 

....What we know 90 days later is that the insurrection was the result of a large, diffuse and new kind of protest movement congealing in the United States.

The Chicago Project on Security and Threats (CPOST), working with court records, has analyzed the demographics and home county characteristics of the 377 Americans, from 250 counties in 44 states, arrested or charged in the Capitol attack.

Those involved are, by and large, older and more professional than right-wing protesters we have surveyed in the past. They typically have no ties to existing right-wing groups. But like earlier protesters, they are 95 percent White and 85 percent male, and many live near and among Biden supporters in blue and purple counties.

....Nor were these insurrectionists typically from deep-red counties. Some 52 percent are from blue counties that Biden comfortably won. But by far the most interesting characteristic common to the insurrectionists’ backgrounds has to do with changes in their local demographics: Counties with the most significant declines in the non-Hispanic White population are the most likely to produce insurrectionists who now face charges.

For example, Texas is the home of 36 of the 377 charged or arrested nationwide. The majority of the state’s alleged insurrectionists — 20 of 36 — live in six quickly diversifying blue counties such as Dallas and Harris (Houston). In fact, all 36 of Texas’s rioters come from just 17 counties, each of which lost White population over the past five years. Three of those arrested or charged hail from Collin County north of Dallas, which has lost White population at the very brisk rate of 4.3 percent since 2015.

The same thing can be seen in New York state, home to 27 people charged or arrested after the riot, nearly all of whom come from 14 blue counties that Biden won in and around New York City. One of these, Putnam County (south of Poughkeepsie), is home to three of those arrested, and a county that saw its White population decline by 3.5 percent since 2015.

When compared with almost 2,900 other counties in the United States, our analysis of the 250 counties where those charged or arrested live reveals that the counties that had the greatest decline in White population had an 18 percent chance of sending an insurrectionist to D.C., while the counties that saw the least decline in the White population had only a 3 percent chance. This finding holds even when controlling for population size, distance to D.C., unemployment rate and urban/rural location. It also would occur by chance less than once in 1,000 times.

Put another way, the people alleged by authorities to have taken the law into their hands on Jan. 6 typically hail from places where non-White populations are growing fastest. ....

 

 

[Mr. Chatywin et al.]

1 hour ago, Fez said:

The question, which I'm not prepared to take the time to look up, is when did these states all adopt their current state constitutional language about vetos. Maybe there was some regional reform movement at some point. Though I can't imagine what. If it was some sort of anti-civil rights things, which I could otherwise believe, I'd think all the deep south would have it; not just Mississippi.

I hadn’t really considered that angle, but it makes more sense than looking at statehood. It also makes the most sense that they would do this at the same general time, be it over civil rights or just a general collective change in philosophy. If not it may just be random, but then it shouldn’t be so regionally clustered.

[Paladin of Ice]

42 minutes ago, Zorral said:

The same thing can be seen in New York state, home to 27 people charged or arrested after the riot, nearly all of whom come from 14 blue counties that Biden won in and around New York City. One of these, Putnam County (south of Poughkeepsie), is home to three of those arrested, and a county that saw its White population decline by 3.5 percent since 2015.

As someone living around that area, I wish I could say I’m surprised, but I’m absolutely not. I’ve seen a lot of hardcore hard right pro-Trump shit around ever since 2015. (I mean, what exactly do you say when you see bumper stickers around with lines like “Liberalism is a mental illness” or “Serve your country, neuter a liberal”, not to mention the various “It’s not over, Trump can still win” stuff a week or more after the election was called?)

So yeah, Putnam and some of the surrounding areas being over represented by insurrectionists doesn’t surprise me, despite it also being New York’s smallest county.

[S John]

Interesting analysis @Zorral

Likely a kernel of truth in there.

I have to somewhat take issue with this part though:

Quote

For example, Texas is the home of 36 of the 377 charged or arrested nationwide. The majority of the state’s alleged insurrectionists — 20 of 36 — live in six quickly diversifying blue counties such as Dallas and Harris (Houston). In fact, all 36 of Texas’s rioters come from just 17 counties, each of which lost White population over the past five years. Three of those arrested or charged hail from Collin County north of Dallas, which has lost White population at the very brisk rate of 4.3 percent since 2015.

Dallas, Collin, Harris - along with counties like Bexar, Travis, Tarrant, Denton, etc are all among the most populated counties in the state in general. If you randomly sampled 36 Texans I imagine you’d get at least 20 from the above counties. I don’t doubt that white anxiety plays a role with these people, but I think drawing the connection in this instance is really flimsy.

[Fez]

Guess Arkansas' easier veto override wasn't exactly relevant...

Fuckers.

For reference there are 24 Democrats in Arkansas House currently, so only 1 Republican voted against the override.

[DMC]

3 hours ago, Fez said:

The question, which I'm not prepared to take the time to look up, is when did these states all adopt their current state constitutional language about vetos. Maybe there was some regional reform movement at some point. Though I can't imagine what. If it was some sort of anti-civil rights things, which I could otherwise believe, I'd think all the deep south would have it; not just Mississippi.

A quick search shows five of the six states - all but Indiana - adopted their most recent constitution during the Reconstruction era.  Considering these were designed to institute Jim Crow - the curtailment of the governor's powers is specifically emphasized as one aspect in the case of Tennessee - one could argue that's a bit of a pattern.  Of course, I'm too lazy to look up if the veto process was the same in these states' prior constitutions.

I think the main pattern - especially when you consider the NC governor wasn't given veto power until 1996 - is simply that the fear of a powerful executive permeated more cogently in the south.  OTOH, one of the main authorities on comparative gubernatorial power cites West Virginia as one of the powerful:

Quote

Focusing on the statutory powers of the nation's governors and not the individuals who hold the office, University of North Carolina political scientist Thad Beyle awarded the top three spots in the power rating to the governorships of West Virginia, Maryland and New Jersey. Following them were Illinois, in a tie for fourth place with Hawaii, Ohio, Pennsylvania and Utah.

Interestingly, Illinois (ETA: plus Ohio and Maryland) is one of the seven states that only requires a 3/5 vote for override, yet is also identified as one of the most powerful.  This suggests the different types (line item, amendatory, reduction) and processes of veto power are just as - if not more so - important as the override threshold.

[Martell Spy]

Value judgment: Donald Trump tumbles down billionaires’ rankings
While the richest got spectacularly richer during the pandemic, the ex-president plummeted nearly 300 places in the Forbes list

https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2021/apr/06/donald-trump-billionaire-rankings-forbes

Quote

 

Not everyone was a winner. According to the latest list, Donald Trump’s standing among other billionaires has plummeted almost 300 places since 2020, down to No 1,299. The humiliating fall sits on Forbes’ next to a quote from the former president reading: “I took a lot of finance courses at Wharton. First they taught you all the rules and regulations. Then they taught you that those rules and regulations are really meant to be broken.”

Trump has lost millions on his retail locations, hotels and golf resorts in the last few years. But it does seem that businesses who were distancing themselves from Trump after the Capitol attack, continue to lease his properties, helping him to rake in millions on some properties in the last year.

 

 

[Zorral]

The analysis goes further in Forbes, flatly saying he'd have made money if he'd been honest and divested etc. when taking the president's office.

Such a good businessman, such a terrific money manager!

Quote

The former president, who prides himself on his business acumen, refused to divest his assets upon taking office. Had he sold out in 2017 and reinvested in the market, he’d be an estimated $1.6 billion richer.

https://www.forbes.com/sites/danalexander/2021/04/06/donald-trump-tumbles-nearly-300-spots-in-billionaire-ranks/?

 

 

 

[maarsen]

22 minutes ago, Zorral said:

The analysis goes further in Forbes, flatly saying he'd have made money if he'd been honest and divested etc. when taking the president's office.

Such a good businessman, such a terrific money manager!

https://www.forbes.com/sites/danalexander/2021/04/06/donald-trump-tumbles-nearly-300-spots-in-billionaire-ranks/?

 

 

 

I think the correct phrasing should be 1.6 billion less in debt. 

[TrueMetis]

12 hours ago, Paladin of Ice said:

You gotta know these little nuances. Kind of like how the US military and the world's largest prison population aren't "big government" but food stamps for kids is.

As an example.

US Senator claiming that the country with the largest number of prisoners per capita isn't imprisoning enough people.

[DMC]

2 minutes ago, TrueMetis said:

US Senator claiming that the country with the largest number of prisoners per capita isn't imprisoning enough people.

JFC Cotton.  If there's any "major under-incarceration problem" in the US, it resides in the GOP caucus and those that fund them.

[Mr. Chatywin et al.]

Can't even reference Dodgeball due to the levels of fucked up that is. What a truly sick human being.

[Martell Spy]

Gaetz reported to have sought a ‘blanket’ pardon from Trump
The Florida Republican earlier told POLITICO that he had not asked for a pardon in connection with an ongoing Justice Department probe.

https://www.politico.com/news/2021/04/06/gaetz-blanket-pardon-trump-479504

Quote

 

Rep. Matt Gaetz allegedly sought a “blanket” presidential pardon from Donald Trump in the closing weeks of his administration — a request which was ultimately not fulfilled, according to news reports.

The request for a blanket preemptive pardon for the Florida Republican and unidentified congressional allies, first reported on Tuesday night by The New York Times, came as the Justice Department was opening an investigation into whether Gaetz had a sexual relationship with a 17-year-old and paid for her to travel across state lines. It’s the latest development in a scandal that has embroiled the third-term lawmaker after The Times first reported on the investigation last week.

Gaetz, a conservative firebrand, has been a vocal defender of the former president. However, the request for a pardon was quickly dismissed by the White House, as lawyers and officials considered such a broad move could set a bad precedent, the Times reported, citing anonymous sources who were briefed on the discussions.

 

 

[ThinkerX]

Hot off the internet - Atlanta Mayor seeks to circumvent GOP voting restriction bill.  Enraged GOP reaction in...

 

https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/politics/atlanta-mayor-issues-order-to-expand-ballot-access/ar-BB1fmLhn?ocid=ob-fb-enus-580&fbclid=IwAR14kkrd00XRvkUXKbNYpgaZOW00nto7O37coOC_4eXcpo01bTFlVKTabbk

 

Atlanta Mayor Keisha Lance Bottoms (D) on Tuesday issued an executive order taking aim at the voting restrictions enacted by the state that have dominated political debate for weeks.

Bottoms's order directs the city's chief equity officer to craft a "plan of action to mitigate the impact on City of Atlanta residents of the voting restrictions" that Georgia Gov. Brian Kemp (R) signed into law in March.

Among the actions the official can take are providing training to staff members and information on early, absentee and in-person voting; directing residents on how to gain the proper ID to vote by mail; and working with private sector and advocacy groups to implement related public service announcements.

[Fragile Bird]

An update on that stock mess from a couple of weeks ago, when margin calls on a private “family company” led to billions of dollars in stocks being dumped.

Goldman Sachs started offering huge blocks of stocks on a Friday, which caught a number of firms by surprise, including Nomura Securities and Credit Suisse. It’s now been revealed that Morgan Stanley offered $5 B in stocks owned by Archegos the night before, going to hedge funds and offering the stocks at a discount, explaining they were trying to save a client from failing because of margin calls. What Morgan Stanley didn’t tell them was that the client had billions more in the same stocks. Those hedge funds are feeling pretty burned by Morgan Stanley right now.

In addition, we now know Nomura lost $2 B on the stocks they didn’t unload in time, and Credit Suisse lost $4.7 B. Two senior executives at Credit Suisse have lost their jobs over the affair, not only for bad credit decisions but because they apparently delayed selling hoping for improvement in the stock prices. Jim Cramer was pretty colorful when discussing the firings, saying Credit Suisse obviously don’t know what the hell they are doing and shouldn’t  be in the stock business. He said when he was a young broker at Goldman Sachs and had a client in a similar position, he went to his boss and suggested that they wait to sell the stocks involved to get a better price and reduce the loss. His boss said sure, Jim, let’s do that, then picked up the telephone right in front of him and ordered the immediate sale of all the stocks. “You shoot the client first” he told Cramer, “then you sell the stocks”.

[IheartIheartTesla]

Trying to read the tea leaves from corporate America on the infrastructure bill. On the one hand, you'd think some companies would be in support, since that 3 trillion is going back into the economy, and someone will be buying more of some product (lets say paint, for a concrete example), which is good for industry. On the other hand, the corresponding hike in corporate taxes would make some of them leery.

So it was good to see Dimon, and everyone's least favorite Lex Luthor, Bezos come out in favor of the plan. They are also somewhat supportive of a hike in corporate taxes (not too high).