US Politics- Enemy at the Gaetz

[A Horse Named Stranger]

I thought it was being a reality tv star.

[Kalbear]

Harris running against Trump is a pretty good way to ensure a lost election. Especially if Biden is actually popular. 

[Mr. Chatywin et al.]

3 hours ago, DMC said:

I don't think Tester really brings much to the table.  It's not like Harris is gonna win Montana with him - and even if she did, it's still only (a projected) 4 electoral votes.  Does he help you with midwestern voters?  I guess it's possible but that's entirely theoretical and I don't think his appeal necessarily translates.  Does he help you in AZ and NV?  I don't think so, or at least I think Castro would help much more.

No, he wouldn't deliver his home state, but that kind of politicking is mostly a thing of the past. It's for the second reason that he could have value. He would provide so ideological balance and I think he'd be a good sell in a lot of states even outside of the Midwest, but you're right that Castro would be more help in AZ and TX. 

1 hour ago, DMC said:

Before Obama the widespread assumption was governor.  Talking heads questioned if a Senator/MC could ever get elected president again.  Obviously that was overdoing it, but I still think it's governor.  Especially Governor of Texas.  That's one of the most powerful elected offices in the country.  And yeah, Julian is clearly the more presidential of the two IMO.  Joaquin can show Cruz how to properly be a bearded Senator.

 

1 hour ago, A Horse Named Stranger said:

I thought it was being a reality tv star.

Not a reality star, per se, but you probably have to be famous now going forward, so I think being a Senator provides a wider lane. The governors of NY, CA, TX and FL can achieve the same level of fame as a Senator, but good luck to the other state governors. A Senator from a small state can still build a giant national brand, and I think that's where the advantage lays.

[Mr. Chatywin et al.]

1 hour ago, Karlbear said:

Harris running against Trump is a pretty good way to ensure a lost election. Especially if Biden is actually popular. 

First, no, and second, Trump isn't going to run again. 

[Kalbear]

3 minutes ago, Tywin et al. said:

First, no, and second, Trump isn't going to run again. 

I don't see why this is particularly clear. Harris isn't as popular as Biden, especially among the people who could decide the vote. Biden only had 40K votes between him and a loss, and those votes were in Arizona, Georgia and what, Wisconsin? I'm gonna go out on a limb and say Harris doesn't do much better in those places. 

I don't see why Trump wouldn't run again at this point. He has to be the heavy favorite. It probably doesn't matter, mind you - whoever wins will be very Trumpy and will have his support massively, so if it isn't Trump it'll be a Trump proxy - but  the notion that he isn't running when he's already getting donations for running and is profiting off of that seems like wishful thinking.

[DMC]

3 minutes ago, Tywin et al. said:

He would provide so ideological balance and I think he'd be a good sell in a lot of states even outside of the Midwest

Harris pretty much spent a career trying to reach the median of the Democratic party even before becoming Biden's VP.  After four years she'll be very squarely in the middle.  I don't think ideological balance is much of a concern either way - if anything in a vacuum I'd nominate someone to the left just to placate the emergent left.  As for being a "good sell" I frankly just think Castro is superior in that regard - as a campaigner and in terms of broad appeal.

[Mr. Chatywin et al.]

21 minutes ago, Karlbear said:

I don't see why this is particularly clear. Harris isn't as popular as Biden, especially among the people who could decide the vote. Biden only had 40K votes between him and a loss, and those votes were in Arizona, Georgia and what, Wisconsin? I'm gonna go out on a limb and say Harris doesn't do much better in those places. 

You said Biden's popularity would hurt her. I disagree. She may underperform him in some white states, but she'll do even better in more diverse places. That's why a lot of people think she'd need a white male as her VP candidate to mitigate some of that, but I doubt that would make a huge deal as the racial lines are pretty clearly drawn at this point.  

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I don't see why Trump wouldn't run again at this point. He has to be the heavy favorite. It probably doesn't matter, mind you - whoever wins will be very Trumpy and will have his support massively, so if it isn't Trump it'll be a Trump proxy - but  the notion that he isn't running when he's already getting donations for running and is profiting off of that seems like wishful thinking.

Trump is old, in poor shape, disgraced and as many have pointed out, he may be too emotionally fragile to allow himself to lose again. He'll play a large king maker role, assuming he's still alive, but that's probably about it. As to what the next nominee will look like, it's far too early to say. 

He'll act like he's running for sure because as you've pointed out he can line his pockets from it due to our absurd laws, but I seriously doubt he actually runs again.

25 minutes ago, DMC said:

Harris pretty much spent a career trying to reach the median of the Democratic party even before becoming Biden's VP.  After four years she'll be very squarely in the middle.  I don't think ideological balance is much of a concern either way - if anything in a vacuum I'd nominate someone to the left just to placate the emergent left.  

Perception vs. reality. You're probably right about the latter, but the former could be a real problem. 

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As for being a "good sell" I frankly just think Castro is superior in that regard - as a campaigner and in terms of broad appeal.

Better campaigner for sure. Broad appeal is a bit more debatable depending on a campaign's strategy.

Like I said before though, I'd absolutely prefer Castro.

[DMC]

6 minutes ago, Tywin et al. said:

Perception vs. reality. You're probably right about the latter, but the former could be a real problem. 

The people that "perceive" Harris as far left aren't going to vote for her just because she nominates a moderate Dem as VP.

[A True Kaniggit]

6 hours ago, DMC said:

  It really is a sad state of affairs for my people (as in white males).  I guess this is what happens when most of them go off to make their own fascist party. 

Hey. At least they (the Democrats) got the likes of us. 

[Kalbear]

41 minutes ago, Tywin et al. said:

You said Biden's popularity would hurt her. I disagree. She may underperform him in some white states, but she'll do even better in more diverse places. That's why a lot of people think she'd need a white male as her VP candidate to mitigate some of that, but I doubt that would make a huge deal as the racial lines are pretty clearly drawn at this point.  

She doesn't need to win more diverse places though. It doesn't matter if she gets 80% in California. What matters is that 10-15k votes in Arizona, Georgia, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin. And if you didn't notice, diversity and those votes  are being attacked, right now, and chances are good it'll not be nearly as easy to vote in 2020. 

Plus, she'll be running instead of Biden, and that will hurt her if people actually want Biden to run. Probably more accurate to say is that regardless of how Biden is doing it will hurt her; if Biden is popular people will want him instead of her, and if Biden is not popular people will not want anyone associated with him. 

41 minutes ago, Tywin et al. said:

Trump is old, in poor shape, disgraced and as many have pointed out, he may be too emotionally fragile to allow himself to lose again. He'll play a large king maker role, assuming he's still alive, but that's probably about it. As to what the next nominee will look like, it's far too early to say. 

Who the fuck cares how old or in poor shape he is? The electorate doesn't. Fox News doesn't. 

40k votes. That's all that separated him from a second term. 

41 minutes ago, Tywin et al. said:

He'll act like he's running for sure because as you've pointed out he can line his pockets from it due to our absurd laws, but I seriously doubt he actually runs again.

It's remarkable how much wishful thinking there is on the board after having no Trump on twitter for a couple months. 

 

[DMC]

9 minutes ago, Karlbear said:

What matters is that 10-15k votes in Arizona, Georgia, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin.

Biden won Pennsylvania by 80 thousand votes.

[Jaxom 1974]

Can we really apply the impressions of Harris or any of the others running things now?  It hasn't been 100 days yet!  Kamala Harris, April 2019 is not going to be Kamala Harris 2023.  Let's get the infrastructure bill passed. Let's get the voting rights bill reinstated and strengthened.  Let's see how Harris, Pete, and, and the others react and work with those things.  Let's see what happens in 2022 after those items are passed.  Then let us talk about the electability of Harris in 2024 if Bidan can't/won't run.  

[Kalbear]

58 minutes ago, DMC said:

Biden won Pennsylvania by 80 thousand votes.

This time. How many did Trump win Pennsylvania by in 2016? About what, 45k? So Pennsylvania is kinda swingy, but it's also pretty close.

But okay, yeah, we can talk about 40k votes in places instead of 10k if you're really searching for that pedantic kink. I respect that. 

36 minutes ago, Jaxom 1974 said:

Can we really apply the impressions of Harris or any of the others running things now?  It hasn't been 100 days yet!  Kamala Harris, April 2019 is not going to be Kamala Harris 2023.  Let's get the infrastructure bill passed. Let's get the voting rights bill reinstated and strengthened.  Let's see how Harris, Pete, and, and the others react and work with those things.  Let's see what happens in 2022 after those items are passed.  Then let us talk about the electability of Harris in 2024 if Bidan can't/won't run.  

Oh come now, where's the fun in that

[DMC]

16 minutes ago, Karlbear said:

But okay, yeah, we can talk about 40k votes in places instead of 10k if you're really searching for that pedantic kink. I respect that. 

If I wanted to be pedantic I would have said Biden won Wisconsin by 20 thousand votes.  

[Jaxom 1974]

48 minutes ago, Karlbear said:

 

Oh come now, where's the fun in that

It's a downer.  I wanna believe things are gonna swing upward before we end up run out the circular firing squad...

[Mr. Chatywin et al.]

3 hours ago, Karlbear said:

Plus, she'll be running instead of Biden, and that will hurt her if people actually want Biden to run. Probably more accurate to say is that regardless of how Biden is doing it will hurt her; if Biden is popular people will want him instead of her, and if Biden is not popular people will not want anyone associated with him. 

Biden already has said he intends to run for reelection, so this is all kind of pointless.

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Who the fuck cares how old or in poor shape he is? The electorate doesn't. Fox News doesn't. 

2024 is lightyears away and the Republican party is in somewhat of a crisis. I doubt Trump's walking through that door to save them.

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It's remarkable how much wishful thinking there is on the board after having no Trump on twitter for a couple months. 

Who was the other poster here alongside you saying it was always going to end in violence years ago? Wishful thinking is not what I traffic in. 

[S John]

Actually think no Trump on Twitter is helping at least somewhat. He has been in the news WAY less than I was expecting he would be and it’s directly tied to the fact that he can’t make provocative tweets multiple times a day.  

It could be that he’s biding his time because he has some big master plan, but that big master plan is probably a lot like his amazing healthcare plan that we were all gonna love. Have a feeling that whatever platform he’s been hinting at rolling out will fall flat. I think Trump is lazy, which is why he was such a prolific Tweeter. So much easier to snipe and troll all day than it is do come up with that comprehensive best ever healthcare plan - or a social media platform for that matter.

I actually don’t think he’ll run again either, but the Republican nominee will almost certainly be someone who had to kiss the ring. We aren’t done with Trump’s GOP but I think we might be done with Trump himself.

[DMC]

To be clear, I definitely did not bring up the hypothetical to generate another discussion on whether Trump will run again or not - or anything related to Trump for that matter.  Guess it was irresponsible of me though considering that's very easy to anticipate.  And for that I deeply apologize to you all - and to the internet gods.  I freely surrender myself to their judgment, and yours.

[Mr. Chatywin et al.]

47 minutes ago, DMC said:

To be clear, I definitely did not bring up the hypothetical to generate another discussion on whether Trump will run again or not - or anything related to Trump for that matter.  Guess it was irresponsible of me though considering that's very easy to anticipate.  And for that I deeply apologize to you all - and to the internet gods.  I freely surrender myself to their judgment, and yours.

Sometimes you get burnt when you reverse shotgun a joint into someone's mouth. 

[Ormond]

On 4/6/2021 at 11:11 AM, Zorral said:

"

On 4/6/2021 at 11:11 AM, Zorral said:

"What an analysis of 377 Americans arrested or charged in the Capitol insurrection tells us" [pay walled]

https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/2021/04/06/capitol-insurrection-arrests-cpost-analysis/

 

 

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For example, Texas is the home of 36 of the 377 charged or arrested nationwide. The majority of the state’s alleged insurrectionists — 20 of 36 — live in six quickly diversifying blue counties such as Dallas and Harris (Houston). In fact, all 36 of Texas’s rioters come from just 17 counties, each of which lost White population over the past five years. Three of those arrested or charged hail from Collin County north of Dallas, which has lost White population at the very brisk rate of 4.3 percent since 2015.

It's late at night and I don't have time to read this whole thread to see if anyone else caught this -- but this article just is not phrasing the demographic facts correctly here. Collin County is one of the fastest growing counties in the United States, home to two of the very fastest growing cities in the USA, McKinney and Frisco. That county has NOT "lost White population" at a brisk rate. Its White population has boomed. What has happened is that its non-Hispanic White population, though booming, is not increasing quite as fast as the Hispanic and racial minority populations, so the total PERCENTAGE of non-Hispanic Whites has decreased. And that would be basically going on almost anywhere the population is growing in the entire United States.