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Fury Resurrected

US Politics- Enemy at the Gaetz

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Remember when we were talking about Mitch McConnell’s dreadful looking hand? I said that it looked pretty bad and he might be suffering from a serious illness, while other people thought he was only bruised from an injection or something?

Apparently there are comments popping up on the internet that he’s lost a lot of weight now. Doesn’t sound good to me.

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Also, if I may have a word on “stock options”?

No one uses options anymore, practically. Restricted stock is popular, as are RSUs (basically a promise of restricted stock, which, once service conditions are satisfied, is granted).

One can pay the tax upon grant in the form of an 83(b) election, but the volatility of stock prevents people from doing this, generally. And you want to make sure you are around for your stock to vest, or you’ve just paid taxes on nothing.

So, you pay tax on vesting. If I get $100k worth of stock, I have to pay CASH $28k when it vests. And if I’m smart, or if I’m a Section 16 officer (my goal in life) I can’t sell the stock, that looks bad.

Sometimes, a plan will allow you to forfeit shares to pay taxes. 

But, no, this isn’t some sort of OMG tax shelter thing. 

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1 hour ago, DMC said:

I think Julian should run for governor next year and Joaquin should challenge Ted in 2024.  It seems like a natural split - Julian the executive and Joaquin the legislator.

I think that depends whether you think Senator or Governor is a better pathway to the presidency. Because I’d love to see Julían in the White House 

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1 minute ago, Fury Resurrected said:

I think that depends whether you think Senator or Governor is a better pathway to the presidency. Because I’d love to see Julían in the White House 

Before Obama the widespread assumption was governor.  Talking heads questioned if a Senator/MC could ever get elected president again.  Obviously that was overdoing it, but I still think it's governor.  Especially Governor of Texas.  That's one of the most powerful elected offices in the country.  And yeah, Julian is clearly the more presidential of the two IMO.  Joaquin can show Cruz how to properly be a bearded Senator.

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Harris running against Trump is a pretty good way to ensure a lost election. Especially if Biden is actually popular. 

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3 hours ago, DMC said:

I don't think Tester really brings much to the table.  It's not like Harris is gonna win Montana with him - and even if she did, it's still only (a projected) 4 electoral votes.  Does he help you with midwestern voters?  I guess it's possible but that's entirely theoretical and I don't think his appeal necessarily translates.  Does he help you in AZ and NV?  I don't think so, or at least I think Castro would help much more.

No, he wouldn't deliver his home state, but that kind of politicking is mostly a thing of the past. It's for the second reason that he could have value. He would provide so ideological balance and I think he'd be a good sell in a lot of states even outside of the Midwest, but you're right that Castro would be more help in AZ and TX. 

1 hour ago, DMC said:

Before Obama the widespread assumption was governor.  Talking heads questioned if a Senator/MC could ever get elected president again.  Obviously that was overdoing it, but I still think it's governor.  Especially Governor of Texas.  That's one of the most powerful elected offices in the country.  And yeah, Julian is clearly the more presidential of the two IMO.  Joaquin can show Cruz how to properly be a bearded Senator.

 

1 hour ago, A Horse Named Stranger said:

I thought it was being a reality tv star.

Not a reality star, per se, but you probably have to be famous now going forward, so I think being a Senator provides a wider lane. The governors of NY, CA, TX and FL can achieve the same level of fame as a Senator, but good luck to the other state governors. A Senator from a small state can still build a giant national brand, and I think that's where the advantage lays.

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1 hour ago, Karlbear said:

Harris running against Trump is a pretty good way to ensure a lost election. Especially if Biden is actually popular. 

First, no, and second, Trump isn't going to run again. 

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3 minutes ago, Tywin et al. said:

First, no, and second, Trump isn't going to run again. 

I don't see why this is particularly clear. Harris isn't as popular as Biden, especially among the people who could decide the vote. Biden only had 40K votes between him and a loss, and those votes were in Arizona, Georgia and what, Wisconsin? I'm gonna go out on a limb and say Harris doesn't do much better in those places. 

I don't see why Trump wouldn't run again at this point. He has to be the heavy favorite. It probably doesn't matter, mind you - whoever wins will be very Trumpy and will have his support massively, so if it isn't Trump it'll be a Trump proxy - but  the notion that he isn't running when he's already getting donations for running and is profiting off of that seems like wishful thinking.

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3 minutes ago, Tywin et al. said:

He would provide so ideological balance and I think he'd be a good sell in a lot of states even outside of the Midwest

Harris pretty much spent a career trying to reach the median of the Democratic party even before becoming Biden's VP.  After four years she'll be very squarely in the middle.  I don't think ideological balance is much of a concern either way - if anything in a vacuum I'd nominate someone to the left just to placate the emergent left.  As for being a "good sell" I frankly just think Castro is superior in that regard - as a campaigner and in terms of broad appeal.

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21 minutes ago, Karlbear said:

I don't see why this is particularly clear. Harris isn't as popular as Biden, especially among the people who could decide the vote. Biden only had 40K votes between him and a loss, and those votes were in Arizona, Georgia and what, Wisconsin? I'm gonna go out on a limb and say Harris doesn't do much better in those places. 

You said Biden's popularity would hurt her. I disagree. She may underperform him in some white states, but she'll do even better in more diverse places. That's why a lot of people think she'd need a white male as her VP candidate to mitigate some of that, but I doubt that would make a huge deal as the racial lines are pretty clearly drawn at this point.  

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I don't see why Trump wouldn't run again at this point. He has to be the heavy favorite. It probably doesn't matter, mind you - whoever wins will be very Trumpy and will have his support massively, so if it isn't Trump it'll be a Trump proxy - but  the notion that he isn't running when he's already getting donations for running and is profiting off of that seems like wishful thinking.

Trump is old, in poor shape, disgraced and as many have pointed out, he may be too emotionally fragile to allow himself to lose again. He'll play a large king maker role, assuming he's still alive, but that's probably about it. As to what the next nominee will look like, it's far too early to say. 

He'll act like he's running for sure because as you've pointed out he can line his pockets from it due to our absurd laws, but I seriously doubt he actually runs again.

25 minutes ago, DMC said:

Harris pretty much spent a career trying to reach the median of the Democratic party even before becoming Biden's VP.  After four years she'll be very squarely in the middle.  I don't think ideological balance is much of a concern either way - if anything in a vacuum I'd nominate someone to the left just to placate the emergent left.  

Perception vs. reality. You're probably right about the latter, but the former could be a real problem. 

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As for being a "good sell" I frankly just think Castro is superior in that regard - as a campaigner and in terms of broad appeal.

Better campaigner for sure. Broad appeal is a bit more debatable depending on a campaign's strategy.

Like I said before though, I'd absolutely prefer Castro.

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6 minutes ago, Tywin et al. said:

Perception vs. reality. You're probably right about the latter, but the former could be a real problem. 

The people that "perceive" Harris as far left aren't going to vote for her just because she nominates a moderate Dem as VP.

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Posted (edited)
6 hours ago, DMC said:

  It really is a sad state of affairs for my people (as in white males).  I guess this is what happens when most of them go off to make their own fascist party. 

Hey. At least they (the Democrats) got the likes of us. 

Edited by A True Kaniggit

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41 minutes ago, Tywin et al. said:

You said Biden's popularity would hurt her. I disagree. She may underperform him in some white states, but she'll do even better in more diverse places. That's why a lot of people think she'd need a white male as her VP candidate to mitigate some of that, but I doubt that would make a huge deal as the racial lines are pretty clearly drawn at this point.  

She doesn't need to win more diverse places though. It doesn't matter if she gets 80% in California. What matters is that 10-15k votes in Arizona, Georgia, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin. And if you didn't notice, diversity and those votes  are being attacked, right now, and chances are good it'll not be nearly as easy to vote in 2020. 

Plus, she'll be running instead of Biden, and that will hurt her if people actually want Biden to run. Probably more accurate to say is that regardless of how Biden is doing it will hurt her; if Biden is popular people will want him instead of her, and if Biden is not popular people will not want anyone associated with him. 

41 minutes ago, Tywin et al. said:

Trump is old, in poor shape, disgraced and as many have pointed out, he may be too emotionally fragile to allow himself to lose again. He'll play a large king maker role, assuming he's still alive, but that's probably about it. As to what the next nominee will look like, it's far too early to say. 

Who the fuck cares how old or in poor shape he is? The electorate doesn't. Fox News doesn't. 

40k votes. That's all that separated him from a second term. 

41 minutes ago, Tywin et al. said:

He'll act like he's running for sure because as you've pointed out he can line his pockets from it due to our absurd laws, but I seriously doubt he actually runs again.

It's remarkable how much wishful thinking there is on the board after having no Trump on twitter for a couple months. 

 

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9 minutes ago, Karlbear said:

What matters is that 10-15k votes in Arizona, Georgia, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin.

Biden won Pennsylvania by 80 thousand votes.

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Can we really apply the impressions of Harris or any of the others running things now?  It hasn't been 100 days yet!  Kamala Harris, April 2019 is not going to be Kamala Harris 2023.  Let's get the infrastructure bill passed. Let's get the voting rights bill reinstated and strengthened.  Let's see how Harris, Pete, and, and the others react and work with those things.  Let's see what happens in 2022 after those items are passed.  Then let us talk about the electability of Harris in 2024 if Bidan can't/won't run.  

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58 minutes ago, DMC said:

Biden won Pennsylvania by 80 thousand votes.

This time. How many did Trump win Pennsylvania by in 2016? About what, 45k? So Pennsylvania is kinda swingy, but it's also pretty close.

But okay, yeah, we can talk about 40k votes in places instead of 10k if you're really searching for that pedantic kink. I respect that. 

36 minutes ago, Jaxom 1974 said:

Can we really apply the impressions of Harris or any of the others running things now?  It hasn't been 100 days yet!  Kamala Harris, April 2019 is not going to be Kamala Harris 2023.  Let's get the infrastructure bill passed. Let's get the voting rights bill reinstated and strengthened.  Let's see how Harris, Pete, and, and the others react and work with those things.  Let's see what happens in 2022 after those items are passed.  Then let us talk about the electability of Harris in 2024 if Bidan can't/won't run.  

Oh come now, where's the fun in that

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16 minutes ago, Karlbear said:

But okay, yeah, we can talk about 40k votes in places instead of 10k if you're really searching for that pedantic kink. I respect that. 

If I wanted to be pedantic I would have said Biden won Wisconsin by 20 thousand votes.  :P

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48 minutes ago, Karlbear said:

 

Oh come now, where's the fun in that

It's a downer.  I wanna believe things are gonna swing upward before we end up run out the circular firing squad...

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3 hours ago, Karlbear said:

Plus, she'll be running instead of Biden, and that will hurt her if people actually want Biden to run. Probably more accurate to say is that regardless of how Biden is doing it will hurt her; if Biden is popular people will want him instead of her, and if Biden is not popular people will not want anyone associated with him. 

Biden already has said he intends to run for reelection, so this is all kind of pointless.

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Who the fuck cares how old or in poor shape he is? The electorate doesn't. Fox News doesn't. 

2024 is lightyears away and the Republican party is in somewhat of a crisis. I doubt Trump's walking through that door to save them.

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It's remarkable how much wishful thinking there is on the board after having no Trump on twitter for a couple months. 

Who was the other poster here alongside you saying it was always going to end in violence years ago? Wishful thinking is not what I traffic in. 

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